WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

Triceratops Ballet

feck it I'm in!

raze_them_all_

Lord TSC wrote: »

Both sides would get a target list. At most, there'd be 8 doubles, so we get a list of sixteen people who are suspicious, while everyone else gets cleared. So then it becomes a ha,e of "who can clear their list of eight first".

baddies get a **** load of kills, they would clear it first id imagine

tritium

EMF2010 wrote: »

Would it really work? Apart from the spirit of the game thing, would we not end up with multiple claims of goodies...as in there's 8 bad guys, and they're not all going to claim the same innocent roles. So we'd have a load of double claims and in the meantime the baddies would have a target list and they can off people pretty darn quick in this game!

Not sure on this. Kill rate is definitely very against us so with 8 baddies plus nelson to be turned it could become a very lopsided race. Will try to run the numbers

Tigger

Lord TSC wrote: »

Revealing your identity has to be in the game rules; it's a core method to defend yourself when accused to reveal your role (or lack thereof) in your own defence.

exactly and we are all in danger of being munched tonight
so we all announce and we win
we could start again in the morning without giving all the names out this time

Lord TSC

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

baddies get a **** load of kills, they would clear it first id imagine

Yeah, maybe. But without it, then we stand less of a chance. At least this way, we'd have some sort of list to work on, right?

The_Valeyard

Tigger wrote: »

exactly and we are all in danger of being munched tonight
so we all announce and we win
we could start again in the morning without giving all the names out this time

How would that work if everyone already knows?

Tigger

quickbeam wrote: »

Okay, here's what I've been thinking of all weekend since I learned my identity ....

The main Simpson family come out. Each can prove their claim. Maggie knows who Bart and Lisa are so that will prove she's legit. Bart and Lisa can confirm each other. Homer can be be proved if there's an attempt to lynch him (early in the game, while the family is in tact) - it'd be a waste of a lynch as you'd not catch a baddie, but you'd also prevent lynching an important roled player at the same time, and prevent Herman getting a kill, and have a confirmed goodie to look to. Marge has no way to prove she's part of the family so couldn't take part. But you'd be left with four confirmed goodies. Three of those four are basically NRVs anyway, and then Willie can go protect our vigilante by which time we'll hopefully have a good idea of who we can aim those bullets at.

That was my idea. Thoughts? I will say I am one of the above mentioned people but won't say who until somebody finds the obvious holes in my logic that I've missed.

i figured you were

Chagan

I'm on board with Tigger's plan. No difference in revealing now and revealing when your head is on the block.

If it works properly it would give us a block of 16 possibles with a 50% chance of a lynch being correct.

Tigger

The_Valeyard wrote: »

How would that work if everyone already knows?

re randomise the roles

Tigger

Chagan wrote: »

I'm on board with Tigger's plan. No difference in revealing now and revealing when your head is on the block.

If it works properly it would give us a block of 16 possibles with a 50% chance of a lynch being correct.

its different
they cant all comunicate so we all announce at the same time
it will be about 12 on the list max

Xaracatz

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

Yeah was pointed out , im a tit im good with tiggers idea if we get a general consensus

Sorry - saw it after I posted. You're not a tit at all.

I'd prefer not to reveal names, as it's not in the nature of the game IHMO.

Tigger

Xaracatz wrote: »

Sorry - saw it after I posted. You're not a tit at all.

I'd prefer not to reveal names, as it's not in the nature of the game IHMO.

ihmo?

Lord TSC

Xaracatz wrote: »

Sorry - saw it after I posted. You're not a tit at all.

I'd prefer not to reveal names, as it's not in the nature of the game IHMO.

Isn't it? The nature of the game is to use the info given to us to work out whose good and whose bad. Yeah, I kinda feel bad that the "flaw" was copped, but it seems a powerful weapon that's hard to ignore now. Like Pandora's box

raze_them_all_

Tigger wrote: »

ihmo?

probably supposed to be imho, in my honest opinion

raze_them_all_

Lord TSC wrote: »

Isn't it? The nature of the game is to use the info given to us to work out whose good and whose bad. Yeah, I kinda feel bad that the "flaw" was copped, but it seems a powerful weapon that's hard to ignore now. Like Pandora's box

can be done in every episode from now on! XD

Chagan

Tigger wrote: »

its different
they cant all comunicate so we all announce at the same time
it will be about 12 on the list max

Oh I didn't realise you wanted everyone to do it at a specific time. Yeah, that would probably cut down the numbers.

The_Valeyard

The silence from the game mods needs to end and give clarity on this issue.

quickbeam

Tigger wrote: »

re randomise the roles

Am confused. All the roles get given out again?

For those who think us all revealing is against the spirit of the game, I think the Simpsons family only revealing would be okay. It was done in an alternative universe.

tritium

Tigger wrote: »

exactly and we are all in danger of being munched tonight
so we all announce and we win
we could start again in the morning without giving all the names out this time

Can i get someone to double check these workings

Im assuming 1 kill tomorrow, one for each bad team (4) per night thereafter. For simplicity ive always assumed we lynch right on the overlapping claims, ignored maggies bullets- basically a 4:1 race. I also assume we dont get either sk early


Night. Goodies baddies
0. 22. 8
1. 21. 8
2. 17. 7
3. 13. 6
4. 9. 5
5. 5. 4

And we basically loose .....

The_Valeyard

quickbeam wrote: »

Am confused. All the roles get given out again?

For those who think us all revealing is against the spirit of the game, I think the Simpsons family only revealing would be okay. It was done in an alternative universe.

If the Simpson's family reveal, then the wolves pick off each member until they can kill homer. They be dead in few turns.

Triceratops Ballet

I support the role reveal, but I'm confused about the randomise thing tigs speaks of. Can you elaborate oh bouncy one?

Tigger

quickbeam wrote: »

Am confused. All the roles get given out again?

For those who think us all revealing is against the spirit of the game, I think the Simpsons family only revealing would be okay. It was done in an alternative universe.

yeah but not the 12 nrv roles
means it cant be done again

sKeith

+1 for revealing. have we a consensus yet? we also need a consensus for when to reveal.

Necro

sKeith wrote: »

+1 for revealing. have we a consensus yet? we also need a consensus for when to reveal.

I'm in agreement with the reveal but I do think we should wait for the mods to give us clarity on the issue before anything is done.

Ectoplasm

tritium wrote: »

Can i get someone to double check these workings

Im assuming 1 kill tomorrow, one for each bad team (4) per night thereafter. For simplicity ive always assumed we lynch right on the overlapping claims, ignored maggies bullets- basically a 4:1 race. I also assume we dont get either sk early


Night. Goodies baddies
0. 22. 8
1. 21. 8
2. 17. 7
3. 13. 6
4. 9. 5
5. 5. 4

And we basically loose .....

This was my concern, that they can kill us faster than we can pick off claims.

quickbeam

The_Valeyard wrote: »

If the Simpson's family reveal, then the wolves pick off each member until they can kill homer. They be dead in few turns.

Yeah, the likliehood of all Simpsons living until the end would be diminished, but the baddies can't coordinate their kills, so it could take four turns for it to happen, and more with Willie's protection. In the mean-time that gives Clancy and Dr. Hibbert four turns of peeks and death roles to reveal.

Also, only one needs to die for Homer to be attacked - he doesn't need to be last.

WerewolfGM

While Kent and Duffman respect everyones right to reveal when they see fit, please remember Rule 11 - In it to win it. With the high kill rate in this game it's not in the interest of the majority of roles to come out, good or bad. There are also players who haven't turned up yet. This is not a direction we had seen the game going, so we're in unchartered territory, but it has the potential to be game breaking and no-one wants that.

Tigger

tritium wrote: »

Can i get someone to double check these workings

Im assuming 1 kill tomorrow, one for each bad team (4) per night thereafter. For simplicity ive always assumed we lynch right on the overlapping claims, ignored maggies bullets- basically a 4:1 race. I also assume we dont get either sk early


Night. Goodies baddies
0. 22. 8
1. 21. 8
2. 17. 7
3. 13. 6
4. 9. 5
5. 5. 4

And we basically loose .....

thats not a correct representation of the numbers and how it would play out

The_Valeyard

quickbeam wrote: »

Yeah, the likliehood of all Simpsons living until the end would be diminished, but the baddies can't coordinate their kills, so it could take four turns for it to happen, and more with Willie's protection. In the mean-time that gives Clancy and Dr. Hibbert four turns of peeks and death roles to reveal.

Also, only one needs to die for Homer to be attacked - he doesn't need to be last.

Ah k. I thought all must die before homer could be touched.

tritium

Tigger wrote: »

thats not a correct representation of the numbers and how it would play out

Great, give me the workings so

The_Valeyard

Tigger wrote: »

thats not a correct representation of the numbers and how it would play out

Then redo the maths and we shall see whose numbers are right.

andy125

I agree its our best chance of a win tbh

Lord TSC

If those numbers show we are ****ed if we do reveal, doesn't that mean it's also near impossible to win without doing so?

The_Valeyard

Lord TSC wrote: »

If those numbers show we are ****ed if we do reveal, doesn't that mean it's also near impossible to win without doing so?

We are forgetting that bullets, protection, seers can alter the numbers very quickly.

sKeith

andy125 wrote: »

I agree its our best chance of a win tbh

bodyguard can't protect himself.
magee can't kill when dead
homer isn't invincible when any simpson dead

3 reasons a reveal all might not be in our interests.

Tigger

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Then redo the maths and we shall see whose numbers are right.

lol
if we all reveal at once its not going to be 50 50
at worst it will ne 66-33 might even be 80-20

maggie gets to eliminate 2 wolves straight away from the definite list
so its 22-6 before they munch

that 6 will have less kills as soon as we hit the serial killers or eliminate a team
they aren't one team so thy will also double target which will drop the kill rate and therehas to be as many of them on one team and no other teams left for a wolf win so its a lot more complicated than trit thinks

Tigger

one wy or the other i suggest willy should protect me tonight
hee hee hee

The_Valeyard

Tigger wrote: »

lol
if we all reveal at once its not going to be 50 50
at worst it will ne 66-33 might even be 80-20

maggie gets to eliminate 2 wolves straight away from the definite list
so its 22-6 before they munch

that 6 will have less kills as soon as we hit the serial killers or eliminate a team
they aren't one team so thy will also double target which will drop the kill rate and therehas to be as many of them on one team and no other teams left for a wolf win so its a lot more complicated than trit thinks

Unless one team turns Nelson and they have a safety net of one.

Also, Maggie could kill villagers. There would be zero definite list as good as bad would fight over rolls.

sullivlo

Can we coordinate a time to reveal though? We can barely coordinate a #ffa most of the time

raze_them_all_

Tigger wrote: »

lol
if we all reveal at once its not going to be 50 50
at worst it will ne 66-33 might even be 80-20

maggie gets to eliminate 2 wolves straight away from the definite list
so its 22-6 before they munch

that 6 will have less kills as soon as we hit the serial killers or eliminate a team
they aren't one team so thy will also double target which will drop the kill rate and therehas to be as many of them on one team and no other teams left for a wolf win so its a lot more complicated than trit thinks

will maggie not be taking 50/50 shot as wolves will double claim? also as soon as nelson is revealed he'd be munched into a wolf so thatd be another maggie bullet/lynch used to off nelson?

Ectoplasm

Tigger wrote: »

lol
if we all reveal at once its not going to be 50 50
at worst it will ne 66-33 might even be 80-20

maggie gets to eliminate 2 wolves straight away from the definite list
so its 22-6 before they munch

that 6 will have less kills as soon as we hit the serial killers or eliminate a team
they aren't one team so thy will also double target which will drop the kill rate and therehas to be as many of them on one team and no other teams left for a wolf win so its a lot more complicated than trit thinks

There's no guarantee Maggie would get the wolves of the duplicate claims though. She might get 1 innocent and 1 baddie or even worse, 2 innocents then the numbers are even worse for the village. Moot point now anyway as mods have spoken.

quickbeam

Tigger wrote: »

i'd love to see the backrooms right now

And the wolf rooms. "Sh?t, who are we going to claim to be if they go ahead with this????"

With multiple baddy teams, we might even get more than two claims to a good role.

The_Valeyard

I'll be back at just after 10pm, driving in a minute. Dont let Tigger organise anything stupid until then.

Xaracatz

I'm not revealing. Relying on the villagers to tell the truth and relying on the bad guys not to mess it up.

That's a big ten hope for me.

tritium

Tigger wrote: »

lol
if we all reveal at once its not going to be 50 50
at worst it will ne 66-33 might even be 80-20

maggie gets to eliminate 2 wolves straight away from the definite list
so its 22-6 before they munch

that 6 will have less kills as soon as we hit the serial killers or eliminate a team
they aren't one team so thy will also double target which will drop the kill rate and therehas to be as many of them on one team and no other teams left for a wolf win so its a lot more complicated than trit thinks

Oh its more complicated alright. But that works both ways. Wolves wouldnt have any need or reason to target each other. Nelson is also almost certain to be turned. All ive given is a simplest possible view ofa race

Xaracatz

Xaracatz wrote: »

I'm not revealing. Relying on the villagers to tell the truth and relying on the bad guys not to mess it up.

That's a big ten hope for me.

Ten *nope*..

sullivlo

quickbeam wrote: »

And the wolf rooms. "Sh?t, who are we going to claim to be if they go ahead with this????"

With multiple baddy teams, we might even get more than two claims to a good role.

^this.

All of a sudden we have 12 claims of a role.

Andys dream game to be fair.

Ectoplasm

EMF2010 wrote: »

Moot point now anyway as mods have spoken.

Or did I misread mods?

Triceratops Ballet

EMF2010 wrote: »

Or did I misread mods?

I read it as they didn't say no!

Lord TSC

EMF2010 wrote: »

Or did I misread mods?

My reading would be they rather we don't all reveal, but k ow it's not really against the rules...