General FPL Chat 2017/18

wardides

Starting to worry the likes of Salah & KDB may be open to some slight rotation once Europe kicks in?

Who_8_Paul?

Coutinho and Sanchez could throw the cat amongst the pigeons in a few weeks...

threein99

Who_8_Paul? wrote: »

Coutinho and Sanchez could throw the cat amongst the pigeons in a few weeks...

Hazard to come back too

iroced

KevIRL wrote: »

Coutinho staying. Lessens the appeal of the likes of Salah even further.

As long as the transfers window is not officially closed I don't believe anything anyone any source even if you're Coutinho himself ... even a picture of Philippe shaking hands with Bartomeu with the blaugrana jersey on or one with Werner and Philippe signing his new contract with the Scousers and I'll have my doubts :pac:!

TwoToneRebel

When Hazard returns I really see him scoring well

wardides

2nd Row Donkey wrote: »

5 out of the top 6 in the world have Rooney in their team.

Discuss.

5 of the top 6 in the world have also used Triple Captain (4) and bench Boost (1). They will not be there by the end. On top of this I don't understand the poster who mentioned reevaluating his targets of being unable to finish in the top 50K. It is far too early in the game to be following people at the top & writing yourself off.

Who_8_Paul?

threein99 wrote: »

Hazard to come back too

Indeed, a lot of people are shooting their wad on the wildcard a bit early. 2 GWs isn't a big enough sample size to determine the squad you'll want for the next few months. The template team this week will likely be very different to the template team by late September.

Hold..... Hold..... Hold....

The doctor in FPL towers calls it 'premature wildcardulation'

markcahill1985

Thinking of going KDB and Firmino to Kane and Richarlson for this weekend. Have two free transfers. AM I mad?

markcahill1985

Thinking of going KDB and Firmino to Kane and Richarlson for this weekend. Have two free transfers. AM I mad?

Benimar

markcahill1985 wrote: »

Thinking of going KDB and Firmino to Kane and Richarlson for this weekend. Have two free transfers. AM I mad?

I'm looking at the exact same transfer for -4

iroced

markcahill1985 wrote: »

Thinking of going KDB and Firmino to Kane and Richarlson for this weekend. Have two free transfers. AM I mad?

Pretty "popular" moves in here at least .

Liamalone

Firminho gonna rip it up this weekend!

jimmii

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What's ridiculous ? I never once mentioned anything about giving up. Quite the opposite.

Sounded like you were all but giving up on your chances of a top 10k already! Way too early to have to really be adjusting expectations sure by the weekend everyone will have sold Kane and we'll all be back in the top 10k when he gets a hatty! Easy!

-=al=-

Giving KdB one more week. I have to give him a chance for the next game and ended up dropping Salah for Eriksen.

Last chance saloon for KdB and hopefully he can hold out until Saturday night without a drop!

If he does drop I can get Salah/Trippier in if they do well for 9.0 and 5.4, so the .1 KdB drop won't matter since Trip is 5.4. 'Tis my plan this week with a bit of a backup plan of sorts

ShaneU

Southampton just signed a centre half from Lazio, Wesley Hoedt. Stephens/Yoshida at risk.

km79

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Hoedt
there could be trouble ahead .......

tomwaits48

I've 3 top 10k finishes and all I can say is that the overreactions I am seeing accross the internet is ridiculous. Calm down people. You don't take a hit to get rid of the likes of Kane or KDB.

Chesty08

tomwaits48 wrote: »

I've 3 top 10k finishes and all I can say is that the overreactions I am seeing accross the internet is ridiculous. Calm down people. You don't take a hit to get rid of the likes of Kane or KDB.

Why not?

There are a lot of options in the FPL! Particularly when you only have place for 4 Premium players

There is a time and a place for all premium players..... Kane exploded towards the end of last season.... Lukaku faded! If you kept Lukaku over Kane well...... you would have fallen down the rankings!

Time and a place!!!

gormdubhgorm

tomwaits48 wrote: »

I've 3 top 10k finishes and all I can say is that the overreactions I am seeing accross the internet is ridiculous. Calm down people. You don't take a hit to get rid of the likes of Kane or KDB.

I am thinking of taking a another 2 hits to get rid of KDB but get Kane in it would be -12 in total
What turned it for me was Jesus been subbed and better value mids then KDB.
Man City seem like a lottery at the moment.

2nd Row Donkey

I'm thinking of a minus 12 to buy Kane, sell kdb and then sell Kane and buy kdb again.

tomwaits48

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I am thinking of taking a another 2 hits to get rid of KDB but get Kane in it would be -12 in total
What turned it for me was Jesus been subbed and better value mids then KDB.
Man City seem like a lottery at the moment.

City were down to 10 men. Required an unusually rejig. Won't be the norm.

gormdubhgorm

tomwaits48 wrote: »

City were down to 10 men. Required an unusually rejig. Won't be the norm.

I relise that but in the game city did win it was David Silva and Aguero who did well.
Not only that they struggled to break Brighton down in that game as well!

There is just too much choice with city even if they do play well you cannot guarantee a focal point for fpl points.

The likes of spurs Kane/Alli/Eriksen provide that assurance (Kane's numbers say he has been unlucky so far)

Shanotheslayer

Hi Guys,

New review is up on how the odds on bookies/stats team is doing:

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/22/gameweek-2-odds-on-in-review/

36.2K OR in short.

-=al=-

Silva and Aguero were prob the pick of the bunch for City over the last 2. KdB is doing ok with shots, passes and dead balls but nothing happening yet. I still have Kane and KdB at the min though.

Don't mind taking hits at the start whatsoever and have a repeatable record every season. I usually start with at least one 4.0 defender, 4.5 mid and 4.5 striker. I don't mind the fodder to get the better lads.

Gota make the moves early to get the monies and don't lose too much value. Comes in handy for wild carding later on. No risk now reward.

The transfer market gets slower every year too making it a bit easier

ElTel

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi Guys,

New review is up on how the odds on bookies/stats team is doing:

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/22/gameweek-2-odds-on-in-review/

36.2K OR in short.

A nice read.
The 12pts loss in first para is confusing-Swapping the armband from Kun to Mane is 6 extra points.
What "allows" you to consider Mane if Kun is best according to Bookies?
Will the odds be the main factor for transfers?

jimmii

2nd Row Donkey wrote: »

I'm thinking of a minus 12 to buy Kane, sell kdb and then sell Kane and buy kdb again.

Wouldn't even be the craziest thing someone did this week looking at some of the posts going round!

jimmii

ElTel wrote: »

A nice read.
The 12pts loss in first para is confusing-Swapping the armband from Kun to Mane is 6 extra points.
What "allows" you to consider Mane if Kun is best according to Bookies?
Will the odds be the main factor for transfers?

Yeh I agree if you're going to take an odds heavy view point it should be less results orientated looked at more from an expected points expectation type view point.

That being said I do like where this is headed in general will be interesting to follow.

ElTel

ElTel wrote: »

A nice read.
The 12pts loss in first para is confusing-Swapping the armband from Kun to Mane is 6 extra points.
What "allows" you to consider Mane if Kun is best according to Bookies?
Will the odds be the main factor for transfers?

Hi mate, sorry my bad on this and you're right for the extra 6 points. My main analysis was done on the players, and I'd wrote this on the bus going into town this evening.

As for what "allows" you to consider Mane if Kun is best according to Bookies? Well there are contributing factors, for example, last week

Aguero has a likelihood of 59.51% of scoring, or in terms of points .5951 x 4 (4 points for a striker) or 2.38 points to be scored.

While Sadio Mane had a 48.60% chance of scoring and a 48.99% chance of keeping a clean sheet. This would have given Man (.4860 x 5) + (.4899 x 1) 2.91 points expectancy to be scored.

Manctually was the most likely scorer this week, but...

I like many believed he would be rotated, and believed the risk of him coming on as a sub, or being subbed off early would have heavily impacted his chance of scoring points. A simple enough method would just be to say if he were to only play 60 minutes then you could divide the odds by 3 and multiply by 2.

Overall it was more being risk averse in this situation, due to the potential of him coming on with 30 minutes to spare a potentially only getting 1 point, akin to Salah this week.

I had previously given reasons for the selection here:
https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/17/fantasy-premier-league-gameweek-2-odds-on-fpl/

See the conclusion
Conclusion:

Aguero is our captain due to him being more likely to score than Lukaku, and due to him being more likely to play than Mane. If there weren’t injury worries for Mane, and he was sure to play the 90 he would have been captain, but due to these issues surrounding him, he has been made captain.

2nd Row Donkey

Shanotheslayer wrote:

Hi Guys,

Shanotheslayer wrote:

New review is up on how the odds on bookies/stats team is doing:

Interesting... This approach is certainly gathering momentum.

Somewhat surprised to see Willians position as precarious... Was strongly considering bring him in for Fabregas. Will rethink that one now.

As for Gabbiadini... Boardies will be turning in their own graves. (if they were dead obviously).

jimmii

jimmii wrote: »

Yeh I agree if you're going to take an odds heavy view point it should be less results orientated looked at more from an expected points expectation type view point.

That being said I do like where this is headed in general will be interesting to follow.

Don't worry, I understand variance and all of that, and the side is not my opinion, far from it, and all of the selections are made on exp. points. It is moreso for the general follower who is interested in getting their points tally higher.