June 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry

Sherkin heading for 2nd place as things stand

Maybe will give Johnston a run if rains continue but i think theres a clearance coming

Tae laidir

Sherkin into second at 26.2mm yesterday.

pauldry

Some Top 3 wet contenders today again

What a washout so far.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT was on 12.1 which was 0.8 below normal for the period.

MAX 19.3 at PP 2nd, MIN 4.9 at Moore Park 7th.

PRC 208% of normal.

SUN 98.7% of normal, as usual Valentia holding down the average somewhat.

pauldry

Markree was 3.8c one of the days last week MT or am I wrong?

4th June in fact

Tae laidir

I think Gurteen floated into third place with 25.6mm yesterday.

For interest, these are the totals for 7th & 8th June.Sherkin Island 33.8
Johnstown Castle 30.0
Gurteen 28.6
Casement 24.4
Mullingar 24.1
Oak Park 23.8
Valentia 23.0
Shannon Airport 22.1
Dunsany 21.9
Ballyhaise 21.4
Knock Airport 20.1
......
Claremorris 10.0
Finner Camp 8.7
Mt Dillon 7.4

pauldry

Some more top 10s after Fri night Saturday

Did YOU know it was going to be this wet MT and thats why you did a rain bonus?

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Some more top 10s after Fri night Saturday

Did YOU know it was going to be this wet MT and thats why you did a rain bonus?

He did go for 100% so he was being cautious

M.T. Cranium

I was expecting a few wet days and a dry spell later but this has been more like a deluge followed by perhaps a bit of improvement. The location points are going to be few and far between at this rate, but that's only three out of the ten, I recall one forecast of Sherkin Island (not on the same page as forecasts typing this but I think it was Lumi) and none for JC or Gurteen.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I was expecting a few wet days and a dry spell later but this has been more like a deluge followed by perhaps a bit of improvement. The location points are going to be few and far between at this rate, but that's only three out of the ten, I recall one forecast of Sherkin Island (not on the same page as forecasts typing this but I think it was Lumi) and none for JC or Gurteen.

Indeed it was Lumi.

I'm hoping after tonight's rain that we won't see anymore very wet days for a long while. I want to get at least some decent points for my rainfall even though it doesn't look like it .

pauldry

Im actually worried my 135per cent rain was too conservative and our temperatures are all way too high so far. Surely next Thursday or Friday well get one warm day. Usually when theres a dry spell promised we get a fraction of it in the actual event

Tae laidir

Valentia floats into the lead at 31.1mm yesterday.
Still raining at Midnight, so 2-day totals tomorrow will be interesting.

M.T. Cranium

pauldry wrote: »

Markree was 3.8c one of the days last week MT or am I wrong?

4th June in fact

Thanks, I missed that one. That may hold up for the month now.

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Valentia floats into the lead at 31.1mm yesterday.
Still raining at Midnight, so 2-day totals tomorrow will be interesting.

That could be that!

Tae laidir

2-day totals 9 & 10 June.
Valentia 34.4
Sherkin Island 27.6
Roches Point 26.9
Cork Airport 24.8
Johnstown Castle 24.1
.....
Belmullet 5.3
Malin Head 4.6
Finner Camp 3.6

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 13.24 C after a rather warm second week, average 14.4 which was 0.9 above the normal for the period (8th-14th). This should rise to most forecasters' satisfaction this week (well past 14 by end of week three, I will guess 14.8).

PRC now at 216% with another wet week that averaged 224% across the grid. This now guarantees about 110% of normal when today's scattered 3-8 mm amounts are included, even if rest of the month were to be bone dry. Assuming at least 50% that guarantees about 140%.

SUN took a rest, pushing the average down to 77% with this past week only 55% of normal. That looks like it might recover a bit this week.

Not keeping very careful track of MAX as it seems to lie in the future, but saw 21.2 on yesterday's reports from Phoenix Park.

M.T. Cranium

The MAX now stands at 26.8 from Phoenix Park on Saturday, tops on Sunday being 26.2. So far Tae laidir has this one nailed, and as to MIN (3.8), two guesses right on that current value from sunflower3 and mickger844posts.

The IMT through yesterday was 14.0 and is still rising at about 0.2 per day during this warm spell. That may slow down later in the week but I expect the IMT to be fairly close to 15 through Friday 23rd (at least 14.8), question then being whether it stays that high to end of the month (sdanseo has 15.0 as our highest IMT guess, the second highest was 14.5 from four of us (Rameire, Rikand, MrSkinner and MTC).

PRC has not risen much in terms of guaranteed outcome which is now around 120% and SUN has improved back towards normal with this very sunny four-day interval counting today (Belmullet missed out but even so, looks like an average of over 200 per cent since last report, which would raise the figures from 77% to about 100% through today, which would be maintained if the third week comes in at 150%).

No recent action in the rainfall sweepstakes.

Tae laidir

Moore Park peaked at 26.9 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the third week ...

IMT reached 14.54 with the third week a very warm 17.2, a full 3.2 deg above normal. A new MAX of 28.6 was recorded yesterday at Phoenix Park. Closest to that in our forecast table is John mac at 28.9. The IMT seems likely to thrash around in the mid-14s to about Monday and could even fall back slightly next week, my guess for the final figure is 14.4.

PRC has fallen back towards our forecast range and now sits at 149% of normal after a generally dry week (15% of normal). This guarantees at least 110% as the outcome but will speculate closer to 130%.

SUN got a much needed jolt with 151.3% of normal for the grid during the past week, which leaves the average at 102% of normal. From here on, that may not change.

MIN remains on 3.8 C which could get some minor challenges mid-week, but may be a safe bet.

M.T. Cranium

IMT edged up to 14.6 through 24th, probably back to 14.5 after Sunday.

(added 0630) _ Several stations reported 4 C at 0500h, including Dublin, Markree and Mountdillon, so possibly a slight tick down for the MIN?

If models are right IMT will drift down to about 14.2 or 14.3 for a final figure, Thursday and Friday look to be lucky to average 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

New MIN was set on Monday morning, 3.6 C as prophesied by DOCARCH.

The heaviest rainfall appears to be 24.9 mm on Monday at Athenry, no doubt some 48 hour totals may be higher than our current top three but that portion was not.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT now on 14.4, week was 14.1 (0.3 below average).

PRC sits at 146% with the week at 135%.

SUN down to 90% as the week was quite cloudy (53%).

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for June 2017


Final numbers for IMT and PRC are revised from monthly data on the Met E website on 1st, but sunshine may need checking from the MS which I expect to see on the 4th or 5th (is it a bank holiday there? also I have some time away planned over the next few days too) ... so these scores, assuming the maximum rainfall survives today, will be fairly close but may need tweaking. Actually the SUN scores are probably locked in by changing to minimum progression if the values are lower than I expect. Our lowest forecasts are around 88 to 90 per cent.


FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Max rainfall loc'n

Estimated values ____ 14.3_28.6_3.6_137_090 ___ 31.1 Valentia ___ TOTALS


Lumi ______________ 25 _ 17*_ 19 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 02 + 01 ________ 72
Dacogawa __________ 24 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 04 + 03 ________ 71
Rameire ____________23 _ 17*_ 13 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 05 + 00 ________ 70
sryanbruen__________24 _ 18*_ 14 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 06 + 03 + 01_____70
Bsal _______________ 23 _ 13*_ 19 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 06 + 00 ________ 69
Tae laidir ___________ 23 _ 08*_ 09 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 04 + 03 ________ 68
DOCARCH __________ 15 _ 04*_ 20 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 04 + 00 _________68
sunflower3 __________23 _ 12*_ 18 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 + 03 _________67
200motels ___ (-7) ___22 _ 10*_ 16 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 06 + 03 + 01_72-7=65
mickger844posts _____22 _ 07*_ 18 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 06 + 03 + 01_____ 65

Con Sensus _________ 23 _ 10*_ 14 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 05 + 03 _________65

Kindred Spirit _ (-2) __ 24 _ 10*_ 14 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 03 + 03 ___66-2 = 64
Rikand _____________23 _ 16*_ 14 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 07 + 00 _________ 64
pauldry ____________ 22 _ 03*_ 16 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 + 00 _________ 64
dasa29_____________ 17 _ 10*_ 14 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 07 + 03 + 02 _____59
MrSkinner __________ 23 _ 04*_ 11 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 05 + 03 _________ 58
M.T. Cranium ________23 _ 16*_ 04 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 07 + 00 _________ 58
sdanseo ____________ 18 _ 14*_ 18 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 + 00 _________56
Joe Public ___ (-2) ___ 25 _ 02*_ 03 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 + 03 ___ 58-2 = 56
john mac ___________ 21 _ 19*_ 02 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 01 + 00 _________55
waterways __________ 21 _ 18*_ 06 _ 03 _ 03 ___ 03 + 00 _________54
Jpmarn ____________ 16 _ 05*_ 00 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 05 + 00 _________ 43

NormaL ____________ 18 _ 06*_ 00 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 03 + 03 _________41

* minimum progression boosted scores for MAX


___________________________________________________________


Actual forecasts

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max rainfall loc'n

Estimated values ____ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 3.6 _ 137 _ 090 ___ 31.1 Valentia

sdanseo ____________15.0 _ 29.6 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 121 ___ 41.0 Casement
Rameire ____________14.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 109 _ 108 ___ 25.5 Belmullet
Rikand _____________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 30.0 Cork
M.T. Cranium ________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 30.5 Dunsany
MrSkinner __________ 14.5 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 101 _ 097 ___ 37.3 Valentia
Lumi ______________ 14.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 41.0 Sherkin Island
Joe Public ___ (-2) ___ 14.3 _ 24.9 _ 1.9 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 50.6 Valentia
sryanbruen _________ 14.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 28.2 Valentia
Kindred Spirit _ (-2) __ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 40.0 Valentia.
Dacogawa __________ 14.2 _ 26.2 _ 3.1 _ 129 _ 105 ___ 39.5 Valentia
Bsal _______________ 14.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 29.1 Mullingar

Con Sensus _________ 14.1 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 36.5 Valentia

sunflower3 __________14.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.8 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 36.5 Valentia
Tae laidir ___________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 2.5 _ 145 _ 095 ___ 38.0 Valentia
200motels ___ (-7) ___14.0 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 109 _ 101 ___ 26.2 Valentia
mickger844posts _____14.0 _ 26.6 _ 3.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 32.9 Valentia
pauldry ____________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 100 ___ 49.9 Cork
waterways __________ 13.9 _ 29.0 _ 2.2 _ 101 _ 124 ___ 40.5 Malin Head
john mac ___________ 13.9 _ 28.9 _ 1.8 _ 106 _ 104 ___ 45.2 Newport

NormaL ____________ 13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (see note)

dasa29_____________ 13.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 30.0 Valentia
Jpmarn _____________13.4 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 35.0 Claremorris
DOCARCH __________ 13.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.6 _ 138 _ 088 ___ 24.3 Casement

___________________________________________________________

21 forecasts, Con Sensus is median (11th ranked forecasts).

The group consensus seems to be warmer and sunnier than average but with near normal amounts of rain. As to the heaviest of the month, almost half (10) go for Valentia, and for the other eleven, the distribution is Casement 2, Cork 2, Belmullet, Claremorris, Dunsany, Malin Head, Mullingar, Newport and Sherkin Island.

For NormaL, the location of the heaviest rain will score three points if it's Valentia, Cork, Sherkin or Casement, Dunsany, Ballyhaise. It will score two points if it's anywhere else except Johnstown Castle, Oak Park, Moore Park, Shannon.

rameire

It is Not a bank Holiday here M.T. Cranium.

M.T. Cranium

Final values for IMT (14.3) and PRC (137%) were confirmed from the monthly data posted today on the Met-E website.

The PRC came down a bit from my estimate, and this removed the need to use minimum progression for scores. Three scores improved and the rest went down slightly as a result. The IMT also gave most one extra point and removed one point from the warmest five forecasts.

This has scrambled up the order slightly but no big changes, table has been revised.

The daily sunshine figures for 29th and 30th show that these two days ran about 80% of normal which should leave things about as expected but I will confirm that as well as the MAX and MIN used for scoring, on the 4th if the MS is available.

As the table will no longer have an edit option by then, I will just repost the adjusted table or post a note saying that it has become a final scoring table.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring table posted as provisional is now confirmed, sunshine did come in very close to 90% (Cork and Casement were slightly above average and Belmullet did worst at about 63%). The MAX and MIN were also confirmed in the MS courtesy of Met-E.

I will update the annual scoring next, but there may be a sleep delay.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to June 2017

The first rank in brackets (column 2) is your rank from last month's table to show changes in the order of scoring. After the "best 5 of 6" another rank in brackets refers to your ranking in that scoring race. This portion will continue to best 8 of 9 and then jumps to best 8 of 10 in October as we close in on the final best 10 of 12 for the main scoring award ... and the table will then be ordered by these ranks instead of the total scoring as will be the case from now to September.

rank/ FORECASTER _____ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN __ TOTAL _____ Best 5 of 6 (rank)

01 (01) Tae laidir _______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 ___ 396 ______ 340 (t2)

02 (01) Con Sensus _____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 395 ______ 336 (4)

02 (02) DOCARCH _______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 ___ 387 ______ 340 (t2)
03 (02) mickger844posts__74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 ___ 384 ______ 330 (4)
04 (05) pauldry _________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 ___ 382 ______ 326 (5)
05 (06) Rikand _________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 ___ 376 ______ 322 (6)
06 (04) John mac _______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 ___ 374 ______ 319 (7)
07 (07) Rameire ________ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 ___ 366 ______ 314 (8)
08 (09) Bsal ___________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 ___ 361 ______ 312 (t9)
09 (09) Kindred Spirit ____54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 ___ 356 ______ 307 (13)
10 (08) MrSkinner _______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 ___ 353 ______ 312 (t9)

11 (11) sryanbruen ______43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 ___ 350 ______ 311 (11)
12 (17) Lumi ___________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 ___ 343 ______ 343 (1)

13 (07) NormaL _________43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 ___ 337 ______ 296 (9)

t13 (11) Joe Public ______ 36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 ___ 336 ______ 300 (15)
t13 (13) Dasa29 ________ 55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 ___ 336 ______ 291 (18)
t13 (16) 200motels ______ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 ___ 336 ______ 301 (14)
16 (18) sunflower3 ______ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 ___ 333 ______ 287 (20)
17 (14) M.T. Cranium ____ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 ___ 332 ______ 288 (19)
18 (15) Jpmarn _________ 70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 ___ 316 ______ 294 (17)
19 (20) Dacogawa _______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 ___ 309 ______ 309 (12)
20 (19) waterways _______49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 ___ 307 ______ 295 (16)

21 (21) JCX BXC ________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- ___ 170
22 (23) sdanseo ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 ___ 124
23 (22) waterjohn _______--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- ___ 101

=================================================

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The June scoring moves Tae laidir ahead of Con Sensus but the close pack of scoring in general means that few large changes took place in the order of scoring.

Lumi moves into first in the best five of six portion.

DOCARCH, mickger844posts and Pauldry are quite close behind the leaders in both categories. There's another group between 6th and 11th fairly tight, and then the rest of us.

M.T. Cranium

The main contest is really quite tight from top to bottom if I take two low scores out, that way most of the lower half of the field drop less than the top half. Of course this may continue to be the form, but at the moment the spread from first to 20th is nine points smaller than for best 5 of 6, using best 4 of 6.