BusConnects Dublin - Bus Network Changes Discussion

jd

Does anybody know what Dermot O'Leary is trying to say in this tweet?

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021455000453681152

devnull

jd wrote: »

Does anybody know what Dermot O'Leary is trying to say in this tweet?

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021455000453681152

Basically he seems to be suggesting that people prefer to have direct services using one number and counting how many of these services exist on the timetable as a way to judge if they have a good service or not.

Jarrett Walker has issued another article today outlining some of the absurd things that have come up in recent days on humantransit.org.

When presenting a plan, I’ll sometimes be asked to count bus routes. How many bus routes change in the plan? How many bus routes still go into the urban core?

These questions have nothing to do with the quality or quantity of transit service. They have nothing to do with anyone’s ability to get anywhere, or even with how much the service is changing. The number of bus routes measures one thing only: the complexity of the service.

Here’s how this works:

A bus route is a path followed by some number of buses during the day. A route may be followed by one bus a day or by a bus every two minutes; either way, it counts as one route.

The number of bus routes can also be changed by how they are named or numbered. Say a bus route is mostly the same but has a branch on one end, where some buses go one way and some go the other. Is that one bus route or two? The answer to that question changes the number of bus routes, even though the service itself is identical in either case.

If you want to talk about service quantity, the correct unit is service hours (or service km), where this means one bus operating in service for an hour (or km).

Why count bus routes then? Only if you are making a point about complexity. The number of routes in a network is a measure of how complicated the service is. In this post, for example, I show how a three-route system gets everyone where they’re going faster than a nine-route system, with the added benefit that three routes are easier to keep in your head than nine.

In our Dublin bus network redesign proposal, the number of routes goes from 130 to about 100. Stated in isolation that sounds like a service cut, when in fact we are just running more buses on simpler routes. We are expanding service, and making it more useful, by reducing complexity. Practically nobody is losing service; most people are seeing a measurable improvement

The more routes a system has, the more complexity you have to remember. Spreading a service budget across more routes also means those routes are less frequent and therefore less useful.

And again, the real measure of a network plan is where people can get to in a reasonable amount of time. In the Dublin proposal, for example, the average Dubliner can get to 20% more jobs (counting student enrolments) in 45 minutes. That’s a real expansion in the liberty and opportunity that people experience in their daily lives. Are you sure the number of bus routes matters more than that?

L1011

NTA need to be getting on to all local press, even if they have to pay for the damn coverage, to counteract the generally inane and inaccurate statements by local politicians who don't understand the plan. My parents had picked up from somewhere - I suspect Catherine Murphy's witterings - that there would be no direct buses from Maynooth at all.

Liffey Champion a few weeks ago had a scare story on the front page from various local pols and a few pages inside an accurate summary of the changes from a different politician. Didn't bother doing any of its own journalistic work on it, just rehashed press releases and put the accurate one where it wasn't useful!

L1011

devnull wrote: »

Plus if we're seeing the 2700s coming back into service, that will free up a small number of 29000s which can then be redeployed to increase capacity elsewhere by increasing 4 car services to 8 car services for instance and perhaps allowing 29000 services to replace ICRs on services they are not suitable for, allowing ICRs to be used on more suitable routes and providing extra capacity there.

I would suspect they'll actually directly release 22000s from the few peak time diagrams they are on and shouldn't be (M3 mainly); the capacity is mostly needed for net new additions not right-sizing existing diagrams.

LeinsterDub

jd wrote: »

Does anybody know what Dermot O'Leary is trying to say in this tweet?

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021455000453681152

Currently the 11 leaves the terminus every 15 minutes at peak for example. Thus 4 buses per hour. When the 11 gets to Ballymun Road the frequency of buses of any route is closer to 20 buses an hour as its running the same road as the 4,9 and 13

KD345

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Currently the 11 leaves the terminus every 15 minutes at peak for example. Thus 4 buses per hour. When the 11 gets to Ballymun Road the frequency of buses of any route is closer to 20 buses an hour as its running the same road as the 4,9 and 13

This is a fair point and I can understand how it may be an issue. Many corridors are at capacity and any reduction in buses may leave people behind at stops.

For example, looking at Templeogue Village, there are currently 37 buses passing thought the village to the city centre between 6-9am on routes 15, 49 and 65/b. Under the Bus Connects proposals, this will be reduced to just 30 buses between 6-9am on new routes A1 and A2. That’s 7 less buses at morning peak, meaning approx 630 less passengers carried.

I think the A1/A2 routes are really well designed and will hopefully attract many more passengers, but there is a clear issue with capacity. If Bus Connects is to work it needs to be ready to deal with the existing passenger numbers and have capacity for growth.

There are 100 new homes coming on the market beside the 15 terminus at Ballycullen Green and Dodderbrook. This will put additional pressure onto the already busy service. We should be looking at least a 5 minute peak frequency on the new 15/A1 route. At the moment, the 15 has a high peak frequency of every 4 minutes during school term and every 6 minutes outside these periods. Bus Connects plans to reduce this to every 10 minutes.

Qrt

KD345 wrote: »

This is a fair point and I can understand how it may be an issue. Many corridors are at capacity and any reduction in buses may leave people behind at stops.

For example, looking at Templeogue Village, there are currently 37 buses passing thought the village to the city centre between 6-9am on routes 15, 49 and 65/b. Under the Bus Connects proposals, this will be reduced to just 30 buses between 6-9am on new routes A1 and A2. That’s 7 less buses at morning peak, meaning approx 630 less passengers carried.

I think the A1/A2 routes are really well designed and will hopefully attract many more passengers, but there is a clear issue with capacity. If Bus Connects is to work it needs to be ready to deal with the existing passenger numbers and have capacity for growth.

There are 100 new homes coming on the market beside the 15 terminus at Ballycullen Green and Dodderbrook. This will put additional pressure onto the already busy service. We should be looking at least a 5 minute peak frequency on the new 15/A1 route. At the moment, the 15 has a high peak frequency of every 4 minutes during school term and every 6 minutes outside these periods. Bus Connects plans to reduce this to every 10 minutes.

This area will be served by the strangely designed route 16 too if my mind serves me correctly? Great that the area is getting a proper link to Tallaght but the decision to have it be the 16 is quite strange.

AlekSmart

KD345 wrote: »

This is a fair point and I can understand how it may be an issue. Many corridors are at capacity and any reduction in buses may leave people behind at stops.

For example, looking at Templeogue Village, there are currently 37 buses passing thought the village to the city centre between 6-9am on routes 15, 49 and 65/b. Under the Bus Connects proposals, this will be reduced to just 30 buses between 6-9am on new routes A1 and A2. That’s 7 less buses at morning peak, meaning approx 630 less passengers carried.

I think the A1/A2 routes are really well designed and will hopefully attract many more passengers, but there is a clear issue with capacity. If Bus Connects is to work it needs to be ready to deal with the existing passenger numbers and have capacity for growth.

There are 100 new homes coming on the market beside the 15 terminus at Ballycullen Green and Dodderbrook. This will put additional pressure onto the already busy service. We should be looking at least a 5 minute peak frequency on the new 15/A1 route. At the moment, the 15 has a high peak frequency of every 4 minutes during school term and every 6 minutes outside these periods. Bus Connects plans to reduce this to every 10 minutes.

My belief is,that some of the responsible folk (and J Walker is NOT one) remain in Network Direct mode.

LeinsterDub

KD345 wrote: »

This is a fair point and I can understand how it may be an issue. Many corridors are at capacity and any reduction in buses may leave people behind at stops.

For example, looking at Templeogue Village, there are currently 37 buses passing thought the village to the city centre between 6-9am on routes 15, 49 and 65/b. Under the Bus Connects proposals, this will be reduced to just 30 buses between 6-9am on new routes A1 and A2. That’s 7 less buses at morning peak, meaning approx 630 less passengers carried.

I think the A1/A2 routes are really well designed and will hopefully attract many more passengers, but there is a clear issue with capacity. If Bus Connects is to work it needs to be ready to deal with the existing passenger numbers and have capacity for growth.

There are 100 new homes coming on the market beside the 15 terminus at Ballycullen Green and Dodderbrook. This will put additional pressure onto the already busy service. We should be looking at least a 5 minute peak frequency on the new 15/A1 route. At the moment, the 15 has a high peak frequency of every 4 minutes during school term and every 6 minutes outside these periods. Bus Connects plans to reduce this to every 10 minutes.

Hopefully some of the demand will be transferred to the orbitals, dart, train and Luas where possible

KD345

Qrt wrote: »

This area will be served by the strangely designed route 16 too if my mind serves me correctly? Great that the area is getting a proper link to Tallaght but the decision to have it be the 16 is quite strange.

Yes, that’s correct. The new 16 is an extension of the current 15b, however this bus will now be coming from Tallaght and replacing the 54a through Kiltipper. I would expect capacity problems on this route too.

Lord Glentoran

L1011 wrote: »

NTA need to be getting on to all local press, even if they have to pay for the damn coverage, to counteract the generally inane and inaccurate statements by local politicians who don't understand the plan. My parents had picked up from somewhere - I suspect Catherine Murphy's witterings - that there would be no direct buses from Maynooth at all.

Liffey Champion a few weeks ago had a scare story on the front page from various local pols and a few pages inside an accurate summary of the changes from a different politician. Didn't bother doing any of its own journalistic work on it, just rehashed press releases and put the accurate one where it wasn't useful!

I wonder does the NTA know this? Perhaps someone here can give them a call.

jd

Lord Glentoran wrote: »

I wonder does the NTA know this? Perhaps someone here can give them a call.

They corrected her at the Transport Committee about a week ago

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/joint_committee_on_transport_tourism_and_sport/2018-07-18/5/

Mr. Hugh Creegan
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They are peak time only going into the city centre, south docklands, UCD and other different combinations. They do not require a change of service. The C route which comes from Lucan and Cellbridge has direct services without needing to interchange.

The C3 and C4 route extends past Lucan. The C spine does not stop at Lucan and there is no need to change buses - the branches continue to wherever their termination point is. There was also a suggestion of a delay on C buses going through Chapelizod village. The C route bypasses Chapelizod village.

Qrt

Apparently there's an Independents4Change councillor calling for a "public meeting" to "save our bus services" in and around the Kimmage area. If anyone sees it could you provide more info please!

Also; Independents4Change? The irony!

dfx-

AlekSmart wrote: »

My belief is,that some of the responsible folk (and J Walker is NOT one) remain in Network Direct mode.

It is increasingly looking like this once you get away from the high frequency 'spines'.

High frequency for some, lost route/drop in frequency for others.

Qrt

dfx- wrote: »

It is increasingly looking like this once you get away from the high frequency 'spines'.

High frequency for some, lost route/drop in frequency for others.

While that may be true to some, there's no point having frequent bus services on your doorstep if they don't bring you anywhere useful. For example, my grandmother will be losing her direct bus, but she'll also have four extra routes (and destinations) within a five min walk.

LeinsterDub

dfx- wrote: »

It is increasingly looking like this once you get away from the high frequency 'spines'.

High frequency for some, lost route/drop in frequency for others.

What percentage do you think others represents? It's already been acknowledged in the report that some areas will be less serviced or connected. However the report suggests this is a tiny percentage.

devnull

dfx- wrote: »

It is increasingly looking like this once you get away from the high frequency 'spines'.

High frequency for some, lost route/drop in frequency for others.

So essentially there is high frequency where there is the most demand and passenger numbers, and lower frequency when there is less demand and passenger numbers?

KD345

devnull wrote: »

So essentially there is high frequency where there is the most demand and passenger numbers, and lower frequency when there is less demand and passenger numbers?

All very well, except there are too many places where the proposed frequency does not meet demand. In the case of the 15, we are talking about removing a 4 minute frequency and replacing it with a 10 minute service. For areas such as Ballycullen, Woodstown, Scholarstown and Knocklyon, the new A1 will need to be at least every 5 minutes at peak to carry the numbers currently using the service.

The NTA themselves identified the 15 as a route in need of enhanced capacity, which make it all the more baffling why they think this decrease in service is acceptable.

devnull

Demand is generally measured on how many people need to get from one place to another and the provided and necessary capacity along that stretch of the route rather than how many people are boarding a bus at a particular area, because that doesn't tell you anything about where the demand is to/from.

If the buses that pass through these areas are busy, are they busy with people going through these areas or are they busy with people going to other areas that will be covered by the enhanced frequency that is catered for by the spines, which will then free up more room on the branches?

Just because a bus route that has every 5 minute frequency now is full at certain points in it's route, it doesn't mean that that areas is not vastly over-served if the majority of people using that bus route are boarding or alighting at stops which would be covered by the spines.

I could run every single bus from one suburb to another which could be full leaving the City Centre running every 5 minutes and leaving people behind but only being 20% full for the last 20 minutes of it's running time. Do you honestly believe that we should keep the frequency high on this low loading part to carry lots of fresh air rather than focusing on resources where people are being left behind?

Most of the routes that will have branches see most of their loadings come from the places that would be served by the spines anyway, so yes there will be a realigning of frequency to match supply and demand, but an outer suburb with a certain level of demand should not expect the same level as an inner suburb with a much higher demand, that'd be plain stupidity.

monument

Soundbites and Tweets like this show me Dermot O'Leary is really driver focused rather he user focused:

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021455000453681152

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021519393598177281

"Dublin commuters have their daily schedules planned from termini departures"

Do many people actually rely on this? If so, why was real time, even if not perfect, was so welcomed?

KD345

Devnull, the 15 had its frequency increased because it was leaving passengers behind at stops. Every bus is full before Firhouse Road. If you cut it’s current peak frequency in half as this report suggests it will be a disaster.

Look at the map. The 49 is being replaced by the S6 and S7 in Firhouse. The plan is that passengers change from the S6/S7 to board the A1 on Firhouse Road to continue their journey to the city. A 10 minute frequency on this A1 will simply not work.

Take a trip on the 15 in September and see for yourself how busy the route is. Then imagine that service being reduced in frequency and having to cope with a connecting route joining it at Firhouse Road.

devnull

monument wrote: »

"Dublin commuters have their daily schedules planned from termini departures"

Do many people actually rely on this? If so, why was real time, even if not perfect, was so welcomed?

At the end of the day though he is a Trade Union leader, so it's his job to represent drivers and of course they will be his number one priority, no matter what he says publicly.

Listing departures from the time they leave a terminus that could be 10 to 15 kilometeres away, which someone may have no idea where it actually is or how long it takes to get to the stop they are standing at, is hugely user unfriendly and is the kind of thing you expect to see on rosters, not public timetables.

It is something that I've only seen in Ireland where you go to a bus stop and you only see the time that the bus leaves the first stop of a route that could be a huge distance away. It is absolutely useless for anyone who is not standing at a terminus or close to it and confuses many tourists.

devnull

KD345 wrote: »

Devnull, the 15 had its frequency increased because it was leaving passengers behind at stops. Every bus is full before Firhouse Road. If you cut it’s current frequency in half as this report suggests it will be a disaster.

The 15 is full between Firhouse Road and where in what direction?

Saying a bus is full at a certain point means absolutely nothing. since it doesn't take into account where those passengers are going to, where they are coming from and the direction of travel and you need to know all of that information to judge how much capacity is needed.

CatInABox

monument wrote: »

"Dublin commuters have their daily schedules planned from termini departures"

Do many people actually rely on this? If so, why was real time, even if not perfect, was so welcomed?

I've used the Dublin Bus time table as inspiration for my lottery numbers, but not much else. I'd go so far as to class them as fictional.

The various apps are the only way I use the buses now:

Open app, see bus is 15 minutes away, get to the bus stop five minutes before it's meant to be there, because even the app isn't super accurate.

Qrt

monument wrote: »

Soundbites and Tweets like this show me Dermot O'Leary is really driver focused rather he user focused:

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021455000453681152

https://twitter.com/DermotLeary/status/1021519393598177281

"Dublin commuters have their daily schedules planned from termini departures"

Do many people actually rely on this? If so, why was real time, even if not perfect, was so welcomed?

I usually use the timetable when getting the 27, but I'm also the third stop on the route so it takes a minute or two max to get to the stop once it departs. I usually use rpti.ie to see if a bus is going to be cancelled.

KD345

devnull wrote: »

The 15 is full between Firhouse Road and where in what direction?

Saying a bus is full at a certain point means absolutely nothing. since it doesn't take into account where those passengers are going to, where they are coming from and the direction of travel and you need to know all of that information to judge how much capacity is needed.

The 15 quickly fills up from it’s Ballycullen terminus inbound.

A bus being full in an area indicates there is a demand for the service. Would you not agree?
I assume the majority of passengers are coming from Ballycullen/Knocklyon and heading in the direction of the city centre. What alternatives do you see for passengers in Knocklyon?

devnull

KD345 wrote: »

The 15 quickly fills up from it’s Ballycullen terminus inbound.

A bus running from Ballycullen to the City Center being very busy is completely meaningless, because proper planning of capacity involves researching how many people are making journeys from one place to another, not how many people are using a bus overall.

A bus being full in an area indicates there is a demand for the service. Would you not agree?

A bus that goes through an area and is full doesn't necessarily mean that there is demand in the area for the bus, since it doesn't take into account how many people in the area are using the bus, it just takes into account the number of people who are using a bus that passes through there which is not the same.

Tomorrow I could divert any bus through any place that has zero demand and you're saying because the bus is full, despite the fact nobody is getting on, that is somehow justification that said place should have said service?

We shouldn't be judging demand on how full buses are in certain areas, we should be judging demand on how many passengers are taking journeys between certain places since it's a far more accurate way to do it and it allows you to focus capacity where it is needed the most and minimise carriage of fresh air.

Stephen15

If I was an NBRU member working for DB I think I would rather they took on board actual present concerns of DB workers like pay and conditions rather than going on Twitter rants about issues which aren't concerns for workers yet. I think they need to wait until the actual rosters for drivers and timetables for the proposed are proposed by the NTA.

That's the time for trade unions to start getting involved in the process and not when a plan hasn't even gone through public consultation. If workers want to get involved in the public consultation they should be entitled to it on their own accord and a unions like SIPTU have broadly kept their mouths shut.

KD345

devnull wrote: »

A bus running from Ballycullen to the City Center being very busy is completely meaningless, because proper planning of capacity involves researching how many people are making journeys from one place to another, not how many people are using a bus overall.

Can you provide a link to this research of the area? How many of the existing route 15 passengers will no longer be taking the 15/A1?

devnull wrote: »

A bus that goes through an area and is full doesn't necessarily mean that there is demand in the area for the bus, since it doesn't take into account how many people in the area are using the bus, it just takes into account the number of people who are using a bus that passes through there which is not the same.

Tomorrow I could divert any bus through any place that has zero demand and you're saying because the bus is full, despite the fact nobody is getting on, that is somehow justification that said place should have said service?

We shouldn't be judging demand on how full buses are in certain areas, we should be judging demand on how many passengers are taking journeys between certain places since it's a far more accurate way to do it and it allows you to focus capacity where it is needed the most and minimise carriage of fresh air.

Perhaps you’re missing my point, or maybe unfamiliar with the area, but the 15 is the only route through Knocklyon to the city centre. The only change to this is that the 15 will now be called the A1 and will run at a reduced frequency. It will also be required to carry additional city bound Firhouse passengers from existing route 49 who will change from new routes S6 and S7.

We can agree to disagree on whether there is sufficient capacity to cater for all this. I don’t believe there is, but accept you feel differently. Hopefully the consultations will help to address any concerns or provide extra buses to resolve issues.

dashcamdanny

Trade unions have every right to involved. Especially with bus connects. Excluding them is a mistake.
IMO Siptu probably can't be bothered as there is no money in for them. Or they were paid to keep out