Electric car popularity & the relationship with tax credits

ELM327

Soarer wrote: »

I've lost around 20% after 150k kms, and my range is about 100kms.

So I can keep going for many more thousands of kilometres until my range drops below 30kms. At that stage, the car will no longer suit my needs. But at roughly 15k kms per year, I think I'll be long after giving up on the car before the battery "craps out" on me.

That's a Gen 1?
Because Gen2 generally have all 12 bars - or just under - at 150k in my experience

cros13

damienirel wrote: »

What do I expect jumping into an EV fourum harping on about how good diesels are! Well happy with mine a 13 year old Audi with 200k miles on the clock, and still drives beautifully. Mechanic reckons there's another 200k miles in it.

In fairness, basically everyone in this forum has owned a diesel at one point and you've never owned an EV.

So there's a difference here in direct knowledge and experience that you don't seem to be recognising.

damienirel

My point and yer all missing it is that EVs are relatively new to the market and not that popular yet so it's obvious that
there is a whole bunch of unknowns - reliability seems to be predicted as rock solid by everybody on here - fact is it has yet to be proven.
So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

damienirel

cros13 wrote: »

In fairness, basically everyone in this forum has owned a diesel at one point and you've never owned an EV.

So there's a difference here in direct knowledge and experience that you don't seem to be recognising.

If a few rechargeable batteries lying around does that not count?:p

Soarer

damienirel wrote: »

My point and yer all missing it is that EVs are relatively new to the market and not that popular yet so it's obvious that
there is a whole bunch of unknowns - reliability seems to be predicted as rock solid by everybody on here - fact is it has yet to be proven.
So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

I think you'll find diesels will come to an end long before EVs.

ELM327

damienirel wrote: »

My point and yer all missing it is that EVs are relatively new to the market and not that popular yet so it's obvious that
there is a whole bunch of unknowns - reliability seems to be predicted as rock solid by everybody on here - fact is it has yet to be proven.
So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

KCross

damienirel wrote: »

My point and yer all missing it is that EVs are relatively new to the market and not that popular yet so it's obvious that
there is a whole bunch of unknowns - reliability seems to be predicted as rock solid by everybody on here - fact is it has yet to be proven.
So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

And your 200k mile diesel might blow the turbo sucking all the oil out of the engine, taking it with it!

There are no certainties in the world... well, as they say, apart from death and taxes!

I dont think any of us is saying EV's are bulletproof or without limitations.

We are just saying they are ALOT better than you are giving them credit for. Even if your worst case scenario came true on the battery side there are still many other benefits.... much nicer to drive, emissions, fuel savings... to name a few.

Question... have you driven an EV?

damienirel

In fairness I wouldn't be on here if I wasn't interested in electric.
So yeah my next car might be an EV but as another poster mentioned the range would really put me off them.

KCross

damienirel wrote: »

In fairness I wouldn't be on here if I wasn't interested in electric.
So yeah my next car might be an EV but as another poster mentioned the range would really put me off them.

What would be your tipping point for range to make you buy one?

Please don't say you want it to be the same as a tank of diesel as if thats something you need on a regular basis!

damienirel

KCross wrote: »

And your 200k mile diesel might blow the turbo sucking all the oil out of the engine, taking it with it!

There are no certainties in the world... well, as they say, apart from death and taxes!

I dont think any of us is saying EV's are bulletproof or without limitations.

We are just saying they are ALOT better than you are giving them credit for. Even if your worst case scenario came true on the battery side there are still many other benefits.... much nicer to drive, emissions, fuel savings... to name a few.

Question... have you driven an EV?

No I haven't - but I'm sure performance is not a problem from what I've read.
Yeah I'll give ye credit for changing my opinion, it's funny as I was initially very pro electric a couple of years ago. It's just all the stuff I've been reading lately about replacing batteries etc. and no battery replacement warranties.

cros13

damienirel wrote: »

My point and yer all missing it is that EVs are relatively new to the market and not that popular yet so it's obvious that
there is a whole bunch of unknowns - reliability seems to be predicted as rock solid by everybody on here - fact is it has yet to be proven.
So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

I have 250,000km of EV driving done across three EVs...

We've had modern EVs on the road in Ireland for 8 years and over a million on the road worldwide. There are EV drivers in the UK and Ireland who've done 300,000km+ on their EVs.

Even based on Nissan's last internal figures, powertrain warranty claims (including battery capacity) for EVs in europe have been five times lower than their combustion vehicles of the same age.

EVs are not that complicated... there just isn't much to go wrong. It's mostly solid state electronics that don't face wear like mechanical components.

So yeah... reliability isn't that unknown.

We will eventually face higher taxes... but with the raw electricity inherently cheaper than combustion fuels, if every car on the road was electric and the same amount of tax needed to be collected, per km fuel and maintenance costs would drop by 30-50% depending on vehicle class.

dixiefly

ELM327 wrote: »

try 60k km in my case. And i'm not the only one.

What EV are you driving?

ELM327

dixiefly wrote: »

What EV are you driving?

2014 Nissan Leaf SVE with currently 80k on the clock, was 40k when I got it last autumn

isnottheword

damienirel wrote: »

So if you're feeling smug in your EV - enjoy it while you can, could come to end sometime soon.

`
And the point you're missing is that for many of us, the maths add up.
As of 17th June - €1600 in my back pocket - due to fuel savings alone on an outlay of €9300 (total cost landed) - in just 10 months.
I went Ev on an opportunistic basis. Beforehand, I was happy with the little 1.4TDCi diesel that I had - which (comparatively) ran on fumes. Despite it running on fumes, I'm still €1600 better off fuel savings wise - for others that would have ran anything more substantial, the saving would be greater (based on the same mileage / usage pr?file). Furthermore, I was spending a fortune on servicing.

damienirel wrote: »

Happy you think that this module replacement idea is the answer to your battery crapping out on you. Hope it's as cheap as you think it's going to be. All in the future, so all predictions - not fact.

Sure - it remains to be seen - I'm a good ways off needing that option. However, I think its reasonable to assume that a whole secondary industry is going to emerge as the momentum grows and the EV numbers increase considerably.
As regards your use of the term 'crapping out' - it's not like your diesel engine - which may 'crap out'. it's a case of the battery becoming less efficient. How many cases of dead batteries can you point to????
In the meantime, I agree that a full on battery replacement is expensive. I believe this will also change as we go forward. There are a couple of things in play - 1. 3rd party providers (of batteries and service providers) will emerge
2. There is dirth of battery availability right now - for the manufacturers themselves. Economies of scale can be reached - and output will probably go up the way (within reason - there are historic concerns in that area for the Lith Ion producers).
3. Yes, of course you are right that the tech is developing - but who's to say that new battery tech cannot be backwards compatible. Manufacturers may not have an interest in that - but there will be many others involved as we go forward.


I'm happy that you are happy out with your diesel. However, the servicing figures you mention are exceptional and are NOT indicative of the average. I too was happy out with the diesel I was driving until this EV opportunity came about.

Also, just as you have warned us of the fact that we are facing into a changing technology - it could well be that that can work out to our benefit. Even if it doesn't, I doubt there's anyone hear that isn't (and hasn't) been racking up savings - so if I had to stick in a new battery a few years from now, no big deal. It will probably be a higher capacity battery and the car will be paid for in full.


In the meantime, you'll find that your trusty diesel is going to have ever increasing motor tax rates - year on year (it will become a default uplift - just like fags n alcohol used to be).


;-)

Calahonda52

damienirel wrote: »

"fashionistas" was a bit OTT but seriously I didn't mean to appear to be trolling!

Not appearing, just are. period.
Am surprised folk have taken the bait.

Gumbo

damienirel wrote: »

In fairness I wouldn't be on here if I wasn't interested in electric.
So yeah my next car might be an EV but as another poster mentioned the range would really put me off them.

As this hasn't been answered yet, what kind of range would you expect an EV to provide for you to consider it?

goz83

kceire wrote: »

As this hasn't been answered yet, what kind of range would you expect an EV to provide for you to consider it?

Or more to the point, what are your range requirements, rather than range wish.

I wish for a 1000klm range, but hey....I make do with about 130

unkel

damienirel wrote: »

Happy you think that this module replacement idea is the answer to your battery crapping out on you.

In fairness to you, we all used to think that batteries would lose power quite a bit over the years, but this is no longer the case in the latest generation of batteries. They will last for a very long time with only minor degradation (think maybe 10% in 10 years)

When you buy my car (Hyundai Ioniq EV) in the USA, it comes with a lifetime battery warranty!

goz83

One example of the very regular threads in the main motors forum.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057748272

I'll take some battery degradation please

scooby77

Coincidentally Bloomberg have had an article on Thursday about Norway''s eV incentives. They have highest proportion of plug in hybrid/eV in the world -and are 4th in absolute terms despite a population of only 5 million. Tax incentives seem to be the key.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/the-country-adopting-electric-vehicles-faster-than-anywhere-else
The last paragraph is interesting though, maybe change is afoot...particularly for high end models.

unkel

Third actually last time I looked.

#1 - USA - population 300,000,000
#2 - China - population 1,400,000,000
#3 - Norway - population just 5,000,000

Incredible stuff. But goes to show how a government can totally nudge people in a certain direction with some not very expensive fiscal measures...

Soarer

scooby77 wrote: »

Coincidentally Bloomberg have had an article on Thursday about Norway''s eV incentives. They have highest proportion of plug in hybrid/eV in the world -and are 4th in absolute terms despite a population of only 5 million. Tax incentives seem to be the key.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/the-country-adopting-electric-vehicles-faster-than-anywhere-else
The last paragraph is interesting though, maybe change is afoot...particularly for high end models.

They've 17,000 EVs in Oslo alone, and afaik the ESB haven't installed their full compliment of 2,000 free chargepoints for new cars yet!
And despite this, there have been posts here suggesting EVs shouldn't be getting tax breaks anymore!

Beggars belief.

oppenheimer1

cros13 wrote: »

I have 250,000km of EV driving done across three EVs...

We've had modern EVs on the road in Ireland for 8 years and over a million on the road worldwide. There are EV drivers in the UK and Ireland who've done 300,000km+ on their EVs.

Even based on Nissan's last internal figures, powertrain warranty claims (including battery capacity) for EVs in europe have been five times lower than their combustion vehicles of the same age.

EVs are not that complicated... there just isn't much to go wrong. It's mostly solid state electronics that don't face wear like mechanical components.

So yeah... reliability isn't that unknown.

We will eventually face higher taxes... but with the raw electricity inherently cheaper than combustion fuels, if every car on the road was electric and the same amount of tax needed to be collected, per km fuel and maintenance costs would drop by 30-50% depending on vehicle class.

If a like for like replacement happened then maybe. But the reality It's that taxes will rise in excess of current levels in order to maintain the cost of driving that we have at present.

This is required to control congestion

BoatMad

damienirel wrote: »

20k kms plus is what I was talking about. Anyways where will your car be in couple of years with a crapped out battery, and you've got to fork out a couple of grand to replace it - or buy a new improved EV 2.0.

Diesel has evolved over the years - and time has improved it, efficiency, reliability, performance etc.
The whole BS on emissions could easily be solved if we used ammonia but for some reason that's seen as a major inconvenience to have to fill another tank or cartridge - as opposed to electric that we've got to remember to plug in every night.

This is bordering the on " haters will hate " stuff

Diesel technology is such that you take a very dirty engine and festoon it with systems that try and prevent that pollution reaching the athmosphere

All those additional systems add unreliability and cost and complexity with ZERO benefit to the car owner

This has made a modern diesel less reliable then a petrol car

Private Diesel is finished , it was an artificially created market largely as a result of tax concessions aimed at co2 reduction and in Ireland a rather bizarre diesel prcing difference ( that will be removed in the coming years )

The only ice remaining in a few years will be petrol.

That's clear

EVs require subsidies at this point , once they are a dominant player subsidies can be reduced

I would argue that usage subsidies are better then purchase subsidies.

Note that SCR with urea ( actually processed pigs urine ) is not a complete solution , it only reduces Nox and only in certain circumstances , it doesn't remove the pollutants nor deal with particulates and other pollutants.

The Diesel engine is just dirty , end of story

ELM327

The problem with diesel is the fuel, rather than the engine. IMO.
I'm actually a great fan of the diesel engine and its history. I believe Rudolf Diesel would turn over in his grave at what the diesel engine has become. It is the antithesis of what he intended it to be, which was an engine that would run on peanut oil in areas like subsaharan africa where Petroleum was hard to find at the time. Our recent "improvements" to the diesel engine means that in most cases it can only run on the DERV fuel and loses the inherent benefit of an old diesel being able to run on any combustible oil.

I see great value in running an old diesel (where its environmental impact of building the car is long since gone) on WVO or even new VO. If I ever have to go off grid completely that will be my first change, along with solar panels and a 30-40 kWh powerwall.

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

The problem with diesel is the fuel, rather than the engine. IMO.
I'm actually a great fan of the diesel engine and its history. I believe Rudolf Diesel would turn over in his grave at what the diesel engine has become. It is the antithesis of what he intended it to be, which was an engine that would run on peanut oil in areas like subsaharan africa where Petroleum was hard to find at the time. Our recent "improvements" to the diesel engine means that in most cases it can only run on the DERV fuel and loses the inherent benefit of an old diesel being able to run on any combustible oil.

I see great value in running an old diesel (where its environmental impact of building the car is long since gone) on WVO or even new VO. If I ever have to go off grid completely that will be my first change, along with solar panels and a 30-40 kWh powerwall.

True , but not the issue at hand.

ELM327

BoatMad wrote: »

...
Diesel technology is such that you take a very dirty engine
........
The Diesel engine is just dirty , end of story

BoatMad wrote: »

True , but not the issue at hand.

I think it is.
The issue with the diesel engine is predominantly the eponymous fuel and not the engine itself.

grogi

ELM327 wrote: »

I think it is.
The issue with the diesel engine is predominantly the eponymous fuel and not the engine itself.

The fuel is dirty - but you can make any fuel dirty.

That's why I think the issue is the reduced reliability that came with complexity and cheap fixes by cutting the DPF and blanking EGRs.

patmac

As for popularity, I was telling a lot of people over the weekend that I was thinking of changing to the Ioniq. Not one word of encouragement from family and friends, all were against it including the Mrs who said if we can't go to the airport and back, round trip of 260kms, then it's not worth it. Still might get it though.

goz83

patmac wrote: »

As for popularity, I was telling a lot of people over the weekend that I was thinking of changing to the Ioniq. Not one word of encouragement from family and friends, all were against it including the Mrs who said if we can't go to the airport and back, round trip of 260kms, then it's not worth it. Still might get it though.

How often do you do that round trip?

grogi

goz83 wrote: »

How often do you do that round trip?

When Mrs says NO, don't try to reason with her. Either go your way and face the consequences while having things your way, or go her way and have peace. Trying to reason only means you get the problems of the first solution with no benefits.

:eek:

patmac

goz83 wrote: »

How often do you do that round trip?

i know, twice a year still working on it.

goz83

patmac wrote: »

i know, twice a year still working on it.

Grand. With the massive fuel savings, tell her she can take a limo to the airport and back whenever she wants.

BoatMad

damienirel wrote: »

If you think you'll be driving around in 10 years time in an EV that you bought this year with an original battery and 200k miles on the clock. Talk to me then bunch of believers!!

in you think after 10- years youll be driving around in the same ICE you bought without , clutches , timing belts , potential turbo replacement ( mine went at 190K, Km)

in my EV at least by 10 years I can just put in a few new battery modules , ( third party units of course ) and head off in effectively a new car

the 19th century bag of bolts that is an ICE will of course be history by then , driven by a few aficionados , getting together to swap tales about the good auld days

BoatMad

patmac wrote: »

As for popularity, I was telling a lot of people over the weekend that I was thinking of changing to the Ioniq. Not one word of encouragement from family and friends, all were against it including the Mrs who said if we can't go to the airport and back, round trip of 260kms, then it's not worth it. Still might get it though.

I see , thats a trip you do every week then !

BoatMad

I think it is.
The issue with the diesel engine is predominantly the eponymous fuel and not the engine itself.

nothing wrong with the fuel, a internal combustion engine , is essentially inefficient ( Thermodyamic laws) and diesels are especially bad at pollution

The petrol engine is an all round better idea in ICE comparisons

ELM327

BoatMad wrote: »

nothing wrong with the fuel, a internal combustion engine , is essentially inefficient ( Thermodyamic laws) and diesels are especially bad at pollution

The petrol engine is an all round better idea in ICE comparisons

Nothing wrong with the fuel?
It's a hydrocarbon from crude oil and is finite, and essentially a carcinogen after it is burnt in operation
Petrol is a "less bad" option but the petrol engine is less efficient and loses more heat in operation.

The combustion engine dates from the 19th century so as a technology should be well obsolete anyway at this stage. We don't run coal trains with 2% thermodynamic efficiency so why do we still have road cars (petrol or derv) with 20-30% thermodynamic efficiency when EVs have the possibility to treble that at least!

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

Nothing wrong with the fuel?
It's a hydrocarbon from crude oil and is finite, and essentially a carcinogen after it is burnt in operation
Petrol is a "less bad" option but the petrol engine is less efficient and loses more heat in operation.

The combustion engine dates from the 19th century so as a technology should be well obsolete anyway at this stage. We don't run coal trains with 2% thermodynamic efficiency so why do we still have road cars (petrol or derv) with 20-30% thermodynamic efficiency when EVs have the possibility to treble that at least!

steady there lad, Im agreeing with you . Diesel fuel has its uses. Diesel private transport isnt and shouldn't be one of them

pwurple

damienirel wrote: »

If you think you'll be driving around in 10 years time in an EV that you bought this year with an original battery and 200k miles on the clock. Talk to me then bunch of believers!!

I'm 1/3 of the way through that with no battery drop-off yet, and I generally buy a car and drive it up to its death.

But it doesn't really matter. 3.2 yrs after purchase, my car will have paid its purchase price off completely with the savings in tax, servicing and fuel. Any residual value my car has at that point, and any savings it continues to make, is effectively our profit from this risk we took. -> Family budget increased by approx 400 quid per month.

My plan is to drive it into the ground, and ideally keep it and teach my kids to drive in it. If the battery doesn't get them very far, even better.

ei9go

BoatMad wrote: »

in you think after 10- years youll be driving around in the same ICE you bought without , clutches , timing belts , potential turbo replacement ( mine went at 190K, Km)

in my EV at least by 10 years I can just put in a few new battery modules , ( third party units of course ) and head off in effectively a new car

the 19th century bag of bolts that is an ICE will of course be history by then , driven by a few aficionados , getting together to swap tales about the good auld days

I think you might miss the point here.

People change cars not because they have do as proved by seeing your old car 10 years later still running.

People change cars because they want and can afford a new car.

EV or Diesel or Petrol makes no difference to this.

BoatMad

ei9go wrote: »

I think you might miss the point here.

People change cars not because they have do as proved by seeing your old car 10 years later still running.

People change cars because they want and can afford a new car.

EV or Diesel or Petrol makes no difference to this.

"some" people