Property slowdown in Dublin?

lucernarian

It's liberalisation of visa requirements now :rolleyes:

I thought farmers were bad when they complained about everything​.

Anyway, I'm a bit confused as to how people are even getting mortgages for 400k and more. Are there that many couples earning over 120k between them?

I think the 3.5x income limit is a big factor in moderating house price growth.

SunSeeker101

lucernarian wrote: »

It's liberalisation of visa requirements now :rolleyes:

I thought farmers were bad when they complained about everything​.

Who's complaining.....:rolleyes: Don't confuse seeking answers for complaining. I like my new Brazilian colleagues. I will be sad to see them leave, should they decide that Ireland is no longer economically viable for them to stay.

rsynnott

lucernarian wrote: »

Anyway, I'm a bit confused as to how people are even getting mortgages for 400k and more. Are there that many couples earning over 120k between them?

I think the 3.5x income limit is a big factor in moderating house price growth.

There'd be some, definitely. However, the average house isn't selling for 400k. And certainly the average first time buyer isn't buying for 400k. See https://c1.dmstatic.com/783/report/images/2016q1-sale-map-of-ireland.jpg for instance. Average house prices is 500k in Dublin South County and 345k in South City, but far less everywhere else.

Non-first-time buyers will sometimes have a fair bit of equity, which changes things.

LirW

rsynnott wrote: »

There'd be some, definitely. However, the average house isn't selling for 400k. And certainly the average first time buyer isn't buying for 400k. See https://c1.dmstatic.com/783/report/images/2016q1-sale-map-of-ireland.jpg for instance. Average house prices is 500k in Dublin South County and 345k in South City, but far less everywhere else.

Non-first-time buyers will sometimes have a fair bit of equity, which changes things.

This is until Q1 in 2016, and prices were going a good bit worse in the last year. There was an average increase in price in the whole of Dublin of 1% per week in the first 3 months of 2017.

Edit: Remembered the numbers wrong, it wasn't 1% a week, but averaging around 1200 euro a week in increase.
My bad.

Shoes and Boots

Average price does not show reality.For example there could be 5 old houses with 200K price and 2 new houses with 400K price.What average price will be when there will 2 old houses will be sold and builders will bring 3 more houses with 400K price ? We usually listening songs like Average price growing,that mean economy growing,get your last chance ! But this is not true,this is average price and this price has nothing to do with economy,it is only amount of houses with different prices,today average bigger,tomorrow smaller.We all hear songs from property agents about average prices but any of them will not tell us for how much houses was sold ! If we will look to sales and final price paid by buyer statistic ( which nobody will show us ) there will be zeros or minuses,might be 0.001 plus,but not what we hear on news.

News says consuming growing,that mean economy growing ! But look to food and other prices ! Nearly every week cent by cent or two by five,prices growing up.People spending more because prices,news tell us because its economy growing.

Dublin port show us calculated statistic but if we will look part by part of it,you will find that some amount of some loads are falling !

New cars sales down,month by month.News says because its sterling rate,used cars export from UK growing due with low sterling rate.Look,as far I remember,sterling rate during the recession was a lot smaller ! Export from UK to IE,ok,tell me the numbers of used cars export from IE to Africa ? None

My friend selling used cars for about 7 years,as he says,this year is worse in his life,sales during the recession was a lot higher ! There was plenty buyers who came from Eastern Europe,none,all gone.Buyers who came from Africa,gone.

Consumer electronics sales ? Laptops,PCs,TVs ,etc ? Down

Unemployment rate falling down,nice ! What about emigration and people who was thrown from job seeker list and now on homeless list or council welfare ,etc ?

People spending all money for mortgages,Dublin growing only because is emigration from small towns,workers from Eastern Europe coming back to own or go to other countries.Things getting worse from my point of view.

Grassey

Lumen wrote:

I'd expect mortgage approvals to be a leading indicator. Not seeing any slowdown here.

But looking at just that the figures would be skewed. Everyone I know who has/is purchasing over the last 12 months has gone and gotten approval from every lender going, and wait until last minute to select the one with the best offer then. We were seen as an oddity as we picked a single bank and only got approval with them.

Shoes and Boots

Banks didn't give money to builders for building new houses, because banks was creating property deficit. Target was create deficit, price rise and sell property arrested during the recession at good price. When price went up,banks started give money to people buy those houses. Price of the houses went up not because people started earn more, but because banks created deficit on market. Due with this policy many people was pushed renting property what brought rent prices up. Builders still not getting money from banks easy, many new houses build step by step, sell one house build 3,sell 3 build 8.

worded

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I just accepted an offer on a 1 bed apparent in North Dublin. 50% more than I could have got for it only a year ago. Apartment are moving again now. Nobody wanted them last year.
No way could I refuse the offer I got, as renting it out is just a mugs game now.
Also very few on the market now too. All getting snapped up.

Why is it a mugs game ?

Shoes and Boots

Because emigration from small towns, house prices there will down. People who will don't have money buy in Dublin, will buy houses in small towns. When prices in about 80 km radius from Dublin will start growing up, this will show that property in Dublin overpriced and in about 1 year time there will be big bubble bang in Dublin.

Cyrus

Grassey wrote: »

But looking at just that the figures would be skewed. Everyone I know who has/is purchasing over the last 12 months has gone and gotten approval from every lender going, and wait until last minute to select the one with the best offer then. We were seen as an oddity as we picked a single bank and only got approval with them.

Are they getting approval in principal or an acual formal letter of offer

worded

It's a very good idea to be approved by at least 2 pref 3 banks
Run them in parallel and then choose one at the end

UB were too slow and I lost a house over them

Lesson learned

House 2 had 3 banks and dropped UB for BOI in the end for better terms

Oh don't give the one bank all the Ins and one may offer you a deal to do that closer to the close

Bob24

worded wrote: »

It's a very good idea to be approved by at least 2 pref 3 banks
Run them in parallel and then choose one at the end

UB were too slow and I lost a house over them

Lesson learned

House 2 had 3 banks and dropped UB for BOI in the end for better terms

Oh don't give the one bank all the Ins and one may offer you a deal to do that closer to the close

I second that - or to go through a good broker who has all your generic documentation and quick access to lenders in multiple banks so that he can get a new mortgage approved in days if needed.

First time we went through a broker it it was stress-free and fast. Second time we thought we knew the process and which bank we wanted so we just applied to them directly. It was much more frustrating as they were constantly dragging their feet with the process taking weeks rather tha days with the broker even though our case was still smilar and pretty straight forward. Since they alll more or less ask for the same documents we regretted no having kicked of another one in parallel which could have been faster.

Once again, houses I'm watching are being silently reduced - silently as in Daft and Myhome are not acknowledging the drop, as they used to. For instance, scroll down this Google search. Now, click on the advert and you'll find they are now looking for €549k for what the search still records as for sale at €585k (as it has been for months).

Presumably auctioneers are simply creating a new advert each time rather than relisting, as was done here where we can see a 4-bed detached in Foxrock that they were unable to sell was reduced last week from €595k to €545k.

jamesthepeach

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Once again, houses I'm watching are being silently reduced - silently as in Daft and Myhome are not acknowledging the drop, as they used to. For instance, scroll down this Google search. Now, click on the advert and you'll find they are now looking for €549k for what the search still records as for sale at €585k (as it has been for months).

Presumably auctioneers are simply creating a new advert each time rather than relisting, as was done here where we can see a 4-bed detached in Foxrock that they were unable to sell was reduced last week from €595k to €545k.

They reduce their asking sometimes to attract more bidders. Doesn't necessarily mean they expect a lower sale price. They have all.sorts of mind tricks they employ.

worded

jamesthepeach wrote: »

They reduce their asking sometimes to attract more bidders. Doesn't necessarily mean they expect a lower sale price. They have all.sorts of mind tricks they employ.

No bidding strategy helps if someone is more interested with more dolla than you

Anyway I hope everyone gets sorted

It's such a long search

It's not like shopping for a jumper !

Bob24

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Presumably auctioneers are simply creating a new advert each time rather than relisting, as was done here where we can see a 4-bed detached in Foxrock that they were unable to sell was reduced last week from €595k to €545k.

BER G ... probably a good sum to spend on improving insulation for whoever buys this!

SunSeeker101

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

.....We could be in for an interesting time in a couple of years if the long overdue recession hits us. It won't be fun being a small, open economy then....

Long overdue recession?
The last one is just over a few years, and folks will argue it's not over.

Feckofff

Augeo wrote: »

Long overdue recession?
The last one is just over a few years, and folks will argue it's not over.

We've had 8+ year bull run in equities, historical average is 11 years. There is a very high chance of a rescission in the next 3-5 years.

Gael23

It's probably a case that people just can't afford to pay any higher.

Sleeper12

No property slowdown here by a look of this

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/queue-forms-overnight-for-dublin-properties-starting-at-410-000-1.3114265?mode=amp

Feckofff

Feckofff wrote: »

We've had 8+ year bull run in equities, historical average is 11 years. There is a very high chance of a rescission in the next 3-5 years.

..... so not long overdue
The bull run on equities was occurring while Ireland was in the sh1tter. Equities can drop 20/30% and Ireland may still not be in a recession

LincolnHawk

A property slow down in Dublin is just wishful thinking at the moment. Selling prices don't reflect that. Viewings are busy. Sale of new developments are obviously going gangbusters

SunSeeker101

Maybe we only avoided the recession hitting already thanks to the ECB printing trillions of euro.

The_Conductor

LincolnHawk wrote: »

A property slow down in Dublin is just wishful thinking at the moment. Selling prices don't reflect that. Viewings are busy. Sale of new developments are obviously going gangbusters

Yes, thats new developments.
Second hand property is stagnating- don't get me wrong- its not falling in price- but the days of seeing a 1% every month- and an annualised 10-15% rise, are long gone.

I appreciate that www.propertypriceregister.ie is seriously in arrears with its figures- in some cases it can take over 6 months for a given property to feature- but have a look at sales for particular areas- and you'll see the achieved prices stagnating- or in some cases where there are both new and second hand properties available (such as west Dublin)- there are actually falls being recorded on second hand property.

The_Conductor

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Maybe we only avoided the recession hitting already thanks to the ECB printing trillions of euro.

In which case- the manure is about to hit the fan..........

LincolnHawk

That's not what I'm seeing, but I guess talking about all of Dublin as a market is a bit silly. Areas and certain price brackets are their own sub-markets. So depends where you're looking

Feckofff

Augeo wrote: »

..... so not long overdue
The bull run on equities was occurring while Ireland was in the sh1tter. Equities can drop 20/30% and Ireland may still not be in a recession

We had a long recession and probably are going to have short boom so that we resync with the world economy.
On a positive note, a new recession would keep interest rates low or lower for the foreseeable future.

Feckofff

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yes, thats new developments.
Second hand property is stagnating- don't get me wrong- its not falling in price- but the days of seeing a 1% every month- and an annualised 10-15% rise, are long gone.

I appreciate that www.propertypriceregister.ie is seriously in arrears with its figures- in some cases it can take over 6 months for a given property to feature- but have a look at sales for particular areas- and you'll see the achieved prices stagnating- or in some cases where there are both new and second hand properties available (such as west Dublin)- there are actually falls being recorded on second hand property.

I would agree. Prices for rentals/low quality houses have been exactly the same for the last 2 years in South Dublin.
I would guess some of the price figures trumpeted by the mediia are being skewed by better more expensive houses coming on the market.

Shoes and Boots

Sleeper12 wrote: »

No property slowdown here by a look of this

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/queue-forms-overnight-for-dublin-properties-starting-at-410-000-1.3114265?mode=amp

Journalism always was a type of prostitution.I pretty sure they got some hamburgers for publish this ordered by property agents "independend information".

If I would be a developer with new 100 houses by 400K on market,I definitely would find 40K for some "independent" news papers what would bring me at least 5 new buyers and bring my sale by 2 millions up.

Believe your pocket,not "independent journalists"

SunSeeker101

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

Maybe we only avoided the recession hitting already thanks to the ECB printing trillions of euro.

The_Conductor wrote: »

In which case- the manure is about to hit the fan..........

The strength of the Euro v sterling wouldn't suggest the printing was an issue if it resulted in a recession being avoided, great stuff.