Tour de France 2017 General Thread

pelevin

Every year the Tour de France is on in France on bikes though sometimes Chris Froome tries running some of the uphill stuff. This year is no different maybe without the running.

Richie Porte is the favourite with the bookies, well PP anyway. 32 years old, best grand tour finish of 5th, he is the form rider but still unproven & has yet to even contend meaningfully deep into a grand tour. Presumably Nico Roche will be a key domestique for him.

Chris Froome, having by far his worst year since he used to be useless, is 2nd favourite. Then Quintana something of an outsider cos of riding a tough Giro & also wasn't in sparkling form there. Perhaps generous odds on Contador at 16/1 who is trying to come in very much fresh rather than battle hardened so his form a bit of an unknown. Should Fuglsang be taken seriously at similar odds, also totally unproven & in his 30s but just after winning the Dauphine? Then there's the likes of Aru & Bardet both of whose form is a bit up in the air but both having done significant things at this level before. I see long odds on Chaves who I think has had a injury-curtailed season. Hopefully Dan Martin can do good things, stage win, maybe top 5, & he even put in a decent tt in the Dauphine which normally would lose him loads of time.

Sagan barring crashing out is presumably a certainty for the points jersey. Cavendish after glandular fever could be there hoping to close in on Merckx's stage wins record.

Anyway, much more than previous years real uncertainty about how things are looking for the overall, & hopefully with Froome possibly on lesser form during it, Sky won't suffocate all life out of the mountain stages. If he does however arrive in the right condition & we see a repeat of Sky dominance, I think after recent controversies things would be off the scale toxic from press & some fans. Anyway, hopefully a more open race this year not just in terms of who can win but more importantly the nature of the racing.

odyssey06

Porte has never won a Grand Tour, has never even podiumed and is favourite for the Tour despite the reigning Tour champion (Froome) & Vuelta champion (Quintana) participating... I wonder if that's even happened before in modern times?

Let's hope Porte helps to make it a genuine contest though and doesn't suffer some sort of mechanical \ crash \ health related setback... ditto for all the contenders

velo.2010

No excuses for Contador regarding team support this year. He has Pantano. Mollema, Felline, Cardoso and Zubeldia to back him up. I think Degankolb accepted he was going to be light on his support for this year. I'd guess Brandle and Stuyven for the last two spots.

Provisional start lists
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/2017-tour-de-france-start-list/

Movistar have Valverde along for the spin this year too.

Julian Alaphilippe is still out with the knee/leg isn't he?

Have to say Cav looked a lot better than I was expecting in Slovenia , good to see him back on a bike.

I'd like to see a stage go to Pierre Rolland , he had a great climb there at the weekend at Route Du Sud.

Over all GC, I was content to think Porte could do it but not so sure anymore. I'd love if this turned into the Giro 2.0 and scripts get thrown out the window but without an event to alter the race like the motorbike incident.

bazermc

Any other Irish confirmed other than Nico and Dan

Deignan for Sky perhaps?

Inquitus

odyssey06 wrote: »

Porte has never won a Grand Tour, has never even podiumed and is favourite for the Tour despite the reigning Tour champion (Froome) & Vuelta champion (Quintana) participating... I wonder if that's even happened before in modern times?

Let's hope Porte helps to make it a genuine contest though and doesn't suffer some sort of mechanical \ crash \ health related setback... ditto for all the contenders

Froome is the bookies favourite still.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-2017/winner

pelevin

Inquitus wrote: »

Froome is the bookies favourite still.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-2017/winner

Depends on which bookies. I only looked at PP who have Porte favourite:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/tour-de-france?ev_oc_grp_ids=112173

Personally I'd put Froome deserved favourite though.

topcat77

i like Port but i just can't see it happening.


The last day at the Dauphine must of taken a huge amount out of him mentally and physically. It's also showed the way to beat him. To lose on the last stage with the margin he had does't look good tactical for him.

1bryan

odyssey06 wrote: »

Porte has never won a Grand Tour, has never even podiumed

not a 3-week man at all. Amazing he had his best GT result in his first ever GT.

dastardly00

Inquitus

1bryan wrote: »

not a 3-week man at all. Amazing he had his best GT result in his first ever GT.

He was the strongest rider not named Froome last year, would have finished 2nd if BMC hadn't put their eggs in the wrong TJVG basket and allowed him to drop almost 2 minutes due to a poorly timed puncture in the Finale one day.

pelevin

topcat77 wrote: »

i like Port but i just can't see it happening.


The last day at the Dauphine must of taken a huge amount out of him mentally and physically. It's also showed the way to beat him. To lose on the last stage with the margin he had does't look good tactical for him.

I think unwittingly Froome may have done BMC & Porte a huge favour the way he rode & attacked Porte that day. Porte was complaining afterwards about riders riding not to win but to make him lose. Apart possibly from Valverde - & that's a stretch - that seems to really just apply to Froome who drafted Porte when they were distanced, then attacked him & then drove on the group ahead, in effect acting as a powewrful domestique for the likes of Fuglsang & Dan M who launched from there.

Whether Porte's complaints were justified or not, I think everyone would think he needed to toughen up in terms of viewing people like Froome as rivals, not friends in any sense on the road. The ruthlessness of the way Froome rode surely has fully woken Porte up to the reality of the relationship with Froome in terms of trying to beat him, & maybe added some anger which I'd imagine all real champions have or use to some extent.

To add to Iniquitus's post above, last year coming 5th showed Porte shouldn't be discounted due to some perceived in ability to last 3 weeks but otoh that was ridden without really being in the hunt for the overall which in terms of pressure would be a totally different kettle of whatever, and Porte as said at 32 has never really been in the heat of battle for a grand tour win deep into the race. The very fact that he was content for so long to ride as a domestique rather than get out from Sky's feet & contend himself shows he isn't naturally a champion in his make-up so we'll see how he manages the pressures & expectations.

Sorry for OT post , not worth a new thread and most interested will be posting/reading here.

French Nationals are being covered on the UCI eurosport player channel tomorrow from 12:30 don't think they have highlights on TV. Not sure about any others later in the week as I can only go one day ahead on the player schedule.

Lusk_Doyle

pelevin wrote: »

The very fact that he was content for so long to ride as a domestique rather than get out from Sky's feet & contend himself shows he isn't naturally a champion in his make-up so we'll see how he manages the pressures & expectations.

He was Sky leader for the Giro a few years ago before the AC in his winnebago broke down amd he went off in a huff.

Manufan123

Bardet at 25/1 could be a good bet. Could see him making a break for it on a big mountain stage. Time trials will let him down though.

1bryan

pelevin wrote: »

The very fact that he was content for so long to ride as a domestique rather than get out from Sky's feet & contend himself shows he isn't naturally a champion in his make-up so we'll see how he manages the pressures & expectations.

interesting point. I remember Jonathan Vaughters making a comment once along the lines of his best paid rider earning as much as the 10th or 11th best paid rider at Sky, and figured there was an element of Sky buying up people they feared might be a threat to their GC aspirations. While probably not true, it was their signing of Porte and Landa that made me wonder.

Porte always seemed too nice to me. He's never shown the kind of aggression of character that you see from Froome and Nibali (though not Contador, curiously), to strike fear into his rivals.

One worry I'd have over Porte would be the support he gets. In the recent Dauphine he was regularly isolated long before the stage end. And, with Caruso showing as strongly in the Tour de Suisse as Porte did in the Dauphine, can they expect Caruso to settle for a purely support role? Likewise GVA. Thats the difference between them and Sky. Sky will be all about Froome. BMC must feel obliged to include someone like GVA because of how big a star he is, even though they know he's not going to be pacing Porte up mountains.

I sense it could be an off-year for Froome. I wouldn't back against him though.

There aren't many TT kms in it this year so you'd wonder will that bring more riders into the reckoning. Such as Dan Martin, for example, or Roman Bardet (who will be in the reckoning, no doubt, but who may fare better than if there were a second TT - not including the prologue here). Fabio Aru and Esteban Chaves, likewise.

And though I enjoyed watching them racing the giro, it's almost a shame that Quintana and Pinot will probably be off top form due to tiredness.

It has the makings of the most competitive tour for a long time. I hope that's the case. It's been an awful race to watch these past few years.

Manufan123

Manufan123 wrote: »

Bardet at 25/1 could be a good bet. Could see him making a break for it on a big mountain stage. Time trials will let him down though.

Not done much racing this year, actually about the same as Froome but a 2nd place in the Tour last year not to be over looked.

Lusk_Doyle

Before we lose the run of ourselves here let's remember that Froome was only a minute and a half off the winner and 20 seconds off Porte in the Dauphine. That's hardly a gulf given that he has the time since to build up to peak for the tour and it's three weeks long. His pack of hounds will also feature heavily here. Porte as favourite with the bookies for the tour is madness.

pelevin

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

He was Sky leader for the Giro a few years ago before the AC in his winnebago broke down amd he went off in a huff.

I think that would add rather than subtract from my point though. Impossible to know & be fully fair but in that race Contador suffered a dislocated shoulder, had no team help in the mountains, was attacked & distanced during a mechanical on a key mountain stage, was up against a super strong Astana who had both Landa & Aru, was dropped on the last mountain stage without team help . . . he still won. Porte had his issues - time penalty for help from 'rival' team (where was his own team) & abandoned after injury. How bad was the injury we've no idea but a few weeks later he's again riding as a domestique for Froome in the Tour.

Imo a champion in his inner make-up rather than simply physical attributes would not go right through his 20s without being a team leader in such races. His hunger would demand he be out there going for it if he thinks he might have it in him. That a guy rightly or wrongly is favourite or 2nd favourite at 32 to win the Tour with some would have been riding as help for someone else even up to 30 years old is pretty lame imo. Where's the pride, the hunger?!

To add, from what I remember it was actually Sky themselves who let Porte go after signing Landa rather than him breaking free.

neris

Cant see Porte winning the Tour. Dont think hes a 3 week GT leader and the Dauphine showed him and BMC up. BMC are a good team but theyre no where near where they were when Cadel won the tour and their flogging of Tejay as a GT leader shows that. Porte will give Froome a run for his money but when it comes down to it the Skybots will break bmc apart on the road.

Any volunteers coming forward for stage previews? We can work out whos doing what stages nearer the time

Miklos

I'm going to the Grand D?part in Dusseldorf next week, really looking forward to it! I'd say the atmosphere will be incredible.

coco0981

I still can't see past Froome for the tour, Sky's ability to control stages is unmatched. Nobody else has their strength in depth that allows domestiques to alternate days in the mountains. They can choose between Thomas, kwiatowsky, landa, kennaugh, henao and poels if he's fit

If the Dauphine is anything to go by then BMC won't be able to give Porte the same backup. I presume TJ will go to the tour? If he does will it be to get stage wins or will he be helping Porte

Macy0161

Did BMC do that bad, except for the last day? Lest we forget, the skybots aren't beyond being ambushed either.

They'll be adding to the line up from Tour De Suisse, and wouldn't building towards to tour also potentially apply to the likes of Nico? Doesn't make sense to me that we're not necessarily expecting GC favourites at the top of their game in the Dauphine, but we are of their domestiques? I'd have more concerns about BMC fully committing rather than their quality tbh.

Personally can't see beyond Froome, but feel it will be a lot closer than recent years (not necessarily in time differences, but how they race pans out). Hopefully Dan can push for the podium.

neris

http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/preview/

neris

https://twitter.com/velonews/status/877531900369399808

MPFGLB

There a good few riders that can be there or there about but realistically there are only 4 riders who can win the Tour imo

Froome
Quintana
Contador
Porte

That is not to say all 4 will finish the race in the top 4 places

Froome has the strongest team and the best current pedigree ... but he has not beenlooking great recently

Quintana is a great climber but will be tired after the Giro

Contador's Dauphine was very poor so maybe he has held something back for the Tour and can win it...For the first time in a long time has has a good team

Porte has been looking mega so far this year but can he maintain form , will his team be able to defend yellow and can he step up as has never won or podiumed a GT



Aru and Astana could cause harm but like Dan Martin the TT could prove a drawback

Valverde is riding for Quintana but the parcours suit him

Bardet has not been great so far this year though could improve as hitting the Tour is his only real goal

The OBE boys didn't show great form at the Dauphine ..Chaves looked above race weight and missing race legs..not sure why Simon Yates was below par

Pinot may be tired too ...but he is strong
Majka could ride anonymously for a top 7


I just hope its an open race

Daroxtar

If Quintana doesn't show form early on I could see Valverde putting the pressure on and going for his own race. He's in ferocious form this season.

Lusk_Doyle

Majka for the KOM jersey again.

neris

MPFGLB wrote: »

The OBE boys didn't show great form at the Dauphine ..Chaves looked above race weight and missing race legs..not sure why Simon Yates was below par

Chaves is only coming back after knee problems and 1st proper race he'd done this year.

Brian?

Froome will win.

Contador will finish no higher than 4th.

Porte won't podium.

Quintana won't attack early enough.

Sagan will take the green Jersey.

Fuglsang and Aru will have a bust up, Fuglsang will finish ahead of Aru.

Cavendish will win stages.

I'll feel deflated by the predictability at the end.

pelevin

Robert Millar's piece on CyclingNews largely looking at the Dauphine as very much a positive for Porte in terms of a display of his strength & perhaps a coming of age in terms of toughening up.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/author/robert-millar-blog-the-making-of-richie-porte/