July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Report after two weeks ...

IMT on 14.7, the second week was rather cool at 14.6 which is 0.8 below normal. Expect this to rise to about 15.8 by end of third week.

PRC continues low at 55% now, with the second week at 49% (above normal at Malin Head so for most of the country below 40%). This may gain a little in the third week or stay about the same.

SUN now at 75% with this past week fairly average for most, dull at Valentia, and the overall mean 93.2% of normal. This may gain a bit with several sunny days in the forecast.

MAX is being upgraded today, several hourly reports of 25 C at 1400h and 1500h, might expect something around 27 from days ahead.

MIN is currently 3.0 and few signs of that being broken.

Tae laidir

Oak Park 25.3 Max yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

New MAX of 26.2 at Mountdillon on 18th. Closest to that is 200motels (26.3) with Bsal and Dacogawa at 26.4.

The IMT has moved up to 15.2 C and working backwards from that, the mean for the past four days would have been 16.9 to move it up (only) that far (I was expecting a bigger jump, must be that Claremorris stayed very close to earlier value). A mean of 18 would have moved it from 14.8 after 14th to about 15.4 now.

dacogawa

Thanks M.T.! (& thanks as always for the hard work)

This month really has been all over the place, when you drop the way we did in the last 24 hours, there are no charts that are going to help you decide 480 hours ago how these two days will be never mind how this month will end. There are no charts now I'd trust to decide how this month will pan out... But still, you've got to love trying, and keep trying!

M.T. Cranium

The mean temperature will be very mean for the next few days, the IMT will be fortunate to stay above 14.8 by Saturday at this rate. The last week of the month looks no better than average so bottom portion of the IMT table seems favoured at this point. And I would be surprised if the 26.4 MAX sees much action. PRC will get massive reinforcement.

Rikand

Not sure if its counted anywhere but possible future bonus question

Number of lightning strikes recorded over Ireland

Extra bonus for naming county\province which receive most strikes and date

pauldry

Or could do

Will any met station record all its rain in one day?

North may see best of weekend weather

M.T. Cranium

We did that lightning question a few years ago. Counties were scaled by size so that it was a fair fight. Maybe we will do this for August then, if the pattern looks encouraging for lightning closer to the start of the month.

I don't have any stats but would imagine that all of a month's rain on one day would be very rare and if it did happen it would be in a dry month, but maybe you meant could any station get a normal month's worth of rain in one day? That would also be somewhat unusual although we may give it a go today.

Rougies

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

We did that lightning question a few years ago. Counties were scaled by size so that it was a fair fight. Maybe we will do this for August then, if the pattern looks encouraging for lightning closer to the start of the month.

I don't have any stats but would imagine that all of a month's rain on one day would be very rare and if it did happen it would be in a dry month, but maybe you meant could any station get a normal month's worth of rain in one day? That would also be somewhat unusual although we may give it a go today.

I presume he means average monthly total in one day which is indeed very rare. I'm not 100% sure but I think at least one of the three Dublin area stations achieved it in October 2011.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavyRain241011.pdf

Some stations in the west will have impressive totals for this 24 hour period, but they have quite high monthly averages too. It would take something exceptional for it to occur.

pauldry

Yes meant all the rain of a full month in a day besides the rain that falls on other days

We almost did it in Sligo with Storm Desmond and some flash floods in Letterkenny and near Belmullet in previous years gave it a shot

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

I presume he means average monthly total in one day which is indeed very rare. I'm not 100% sure but I think at least one of the three Dublin area stations achieved it in October 2011.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/HeavyRain241011.pdf

Some stations in the west will have impressive totals for this 24 hour period, but they have quite high monthly averages too. It would take something exceptional for it to occur.

11 June 1993 is a very notable one.

M.T. Cranium

An update after week three, which had a very warm start, a cool finish with heavy rainfalls.

IMT went up as high as 15.2 during the week but is back down to 14.94 now, the week averaged 15.4 which is 0.3 below the average for this period.

PRC has soared to 113 per cent of normal, as the third week (mostly the last two days) registered 229 per cent (Shannon 470 after nearly a month's worth in 48 hours).

SUN is now at 97 per cent of normal, with the third week managing 140 per cent.

MAX 26.2 and MIN 3.0 as reported above.

dacogawa

I'm near on a few counts! I do expect that to fall away dramatically in the next 200 hours...

M.T. Cranium

The IMT stood at 15.18 C after 26th and will probably slide down to 15.1 after today.

I don't see much potential for it to go either way from there.

PRC and SUN will likely both be holding steady when the next report comes in. They are both fairly close to 100% at this point (PRC a bit higher but close to 100% if there is no further rain). It turned into a rather cool, wet month after such a dry start.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT sits at 15.14 C with the fourth week at 15.7, which was 0.1 above the normal for the period. This will likely finish about where it is now, perhaps rounding to 15.1 from the lower side or maybe 15.0 C.

PRC has edged up to 114 per cent with this past week at 117% of normal. The guaranteed outcome (if no rain were to fall 29th-31st, some already has) from monthly data rather than my calculations is 106% which is slightly higher than my tracking (without Shannon it would be 101%). At any rate with the rain in the forecast this will probably finish around 115 per cent.

SUN did surprisingly well, now at 108.5% with the fourth week managing 143 per cent of normal. There is not a lot of sunshine in the forecast or today's apparent totals so this may slide down to about 103% at the final tally.

MAX still 26.2 and MIN 3.0.

I will post some provisional scores for your interest with the caveat that the PRC and SUN in particular could change by 2-3 points.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for July 2017

See the table for the values being used to estimate scoring. While the bonus points are settled, and IMT can only change in lock-step for the field, everything else depends on final confirmations. Plus or minus five points would be a reasonable estimate of overall error in these scores. A final table will be posted on or about 2nd of August.

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus_____ TOTAL

Estimated values ___ 15.1_26.2_3.0_115_103____ 16.9

Dacogawa _________ 25 _ 19*_ 18 _ 10 _ 06 ____ 10 ________ 88
Bsal ______________ 17 _ 19*_ 13 _ 15 _ 10 _____ 6 ________ 80
DOCARCH _________ 23 _ 16*_ 12 _ 12 _ 10 _____ 7 ________ 80
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 14*_ 15 _ 13 _ 07 _____ 4 ________ 76
Gonzo ____________ 20 _ 06*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 _____ 7 ________ 74
pauldry ___________ 20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 10 _ 10 _____ 3 ________ 74
mickger844posts ____18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 15 _ 07 _____ 3 ________ 72
MrSkinner _________ 21 _ 17*_ 14 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 3 ________ 72
waterways _________19 _ 08*_ 13 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 9 ________ 71
200motels _ (-7) ____19 _ 20*_ 13 _ 13 _ 08 _____ 2 __ 75-7 = 68

Normal ____________21 _ 08*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 68

John mac __________24 __00 _ 18 _ 09 _ 09 _____ 4 ________ 64

Con Sensus ________19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 6 ________ 63

Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 20 _ 04*_ 15 _ 11 _ 06 _____ 8 __ 64-2 = 62
Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 04*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 9 ________ 62
Dasa29 ___________ 18 _ 02*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 2 ________ 54
Tae laidir __________19 _ 03*_ 06 _ 06 _ 08 ____ 10 ________ 52
Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___14 _ 02*_ 11 _ 10 _ 07 _____ 8 __ 52-3 = 49
Rikand ____________16 _ 01*_ 10 _ 07 _ 07 _____ 8 ________ 49
sryanbruen ________ 15 _ 01*_ 10 _ 07 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 47
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 17 _ 00 _ 05 _ 13 _ 09 _____ 6 __ 50-3 = 47
Sunflower3 ________ 14 _ 08*_ 00 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 44
sdanseo ____ (-5) ___15 _ 00 _ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 2 __ 47-5 = 42
__________________________________________________________

* MAX scores adjusted slightly, modified minimum progression invoked as seven scores were zero but high score of 19/20 and lack of missing scores in upper half of progression required a modest boost so that some zero scores became 01 or 02, scores that were already 02 to 07 got a 1-2 point boost and all above 08 got one extra point.

In general, the table of forecasts and the scoring table were close to inverted (Bsal was one notable exception) and most of the late forecasts failed to gain any advantage (the charts must have zigged when the actual trend zagged around the 2nd) so they dropped a bit further down the table than is often the case. Well done to Dacogawa assuming these scores don't change much, and also to Gonzo who managed to beat Con on the first try.

Normal beat Con Sensus which is unusual; even so, the group forecast for the month was fairly accurate especially for PRC and SUN.

John mac

i feel a temp of 29.5 coming tomorrow

M.T. Cranium

Well if it's in Connacht then I think we may have an idea how that happened.

M.T. Cranium

IMT limped in at 15.1 (from 15.06).

PRC added a bit more than estimated in last three days and finished at 122% of normal. This will fatten the scores of our leader (Dacogawa) as well as JPmarn, 200 motels, and MTC at the expense of most others (Gonzo will stay on 14 points).

(note that a large part of the population of Ireland had a drier July than normal, from Dublin around to Cork the values were closer to 80 per cent; Shannon at 203% inflated the average, Claremorris also rather wet).

SUN appears to have dropped as expected but will confirm from the MS due by mid-day tomorrow.

Tae laidir

NormaL beats ConSensus.
Doesn't happen that often.

M.T. Cranium

Checking the MS, all other values confirmed including the 103% average for sunshine, all stations generally 110% or higher except Valentia closer to 80%. This allows a quick edit of PRC to yield the following final values for scoring:

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus_____ TOTAL

Confirmed values ___ 15.1_26.2_3.0_122_103____ 16.9

Dacogawa _________ 25 _ 19*_ 18 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 10 ________ 90
Bsal ______________ 17 _ 19*_ 13 _ 13 _ 10 _____ 6 ________ 78
DOCARCH _________ 23 _ 16*_ 12 _ 09 _ 10 _____ 7 ________ 77
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 14*_ 15 _ 14 _ 07 _____ 4 ________ 77
Gonzo ____________ 20 _ 06*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 _____ 7 ________ 74
pauldry ___________ 20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 08 _ 10 _____ 3 ________ 72
mickger844posts ____18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 13 _ 07 _____ 3 ________ 70
MrSkinner _________ 21 _ 17*_ 14 _ 06 _ 09 _____ 3 ________ 70
200motels _ (-7) ____19 _ 20*_ 13 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 2 __ 76-7 = 69
waterways _________19 _ 08*_ 13 _ 11 _ 08 _____ 9 ________ 68

Normal ____________21 _ 08*_ 15 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 66

John mac __________24 __00 _ 18 _ 07 _ 09 _____ 4 ________ 62

Con Sensus ________19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 6 ________ 61

Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 20 _ 04*_ 15 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 8 __ 62-2 = 60
Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 04*_ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 9 ________ 60
Dasa29 ___________ 18 _ 02*_ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 2 ________ 52
Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___14 _ 02*_ 11 _ 12 _ 07 _____ 8 __ 54-3 = 51
Tae laidir __________19 _ 03*_ 06 _ 04 _ 08 ____ 10 ________ 50
Rikand ____________16 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 _ 07 _____ 8 ________ 46
sryanbruen ________ 15 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 44
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 17 _ 00 _ 05 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 6 __ 48-3 = 45
Sunflower3 ________ 14 _ 08*_ 00 _ 06 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 42
sdanseo ____ (-5) ___15 _ 00 _ 10 _ 09 _ 09 _____ 2 __ 45-5 = 40
__________________________________________________________

* MAX scores adjusted slightly, modified minimum progression invoked as seven scores were zero but high score of 19/20 and lack of missing scores in upper half of progression required a modest boost so that some zero scores became 01 or 02, scores that were already 02 to 07 got a 1-2 point boost and all above 08 got one extra point.

Congrats to dacogawa with a sizzling score in a not so sizzling month, hon mentions to Bsal, DOCARCH, and Gonzo (feels like I missed somebody).

(Table of forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

___________________________________________________________

Annual scoring update to follow, if I survive (nasty allergic reactions to heavy smoke content of our local atmosphere, feels like the annual winter mild flu sort of a thing except that it's hot outside).

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to June 2017

The first rank in brackets (column 2) is your rank from last month's table to show changes in the order of scoring. After the "best 5 of 7" another rank in brackets refers to your ranking in that scoring race. This portion has changed this month a bit ahead of schedule as one of the higher scoring forecasters (Lumi) has missed two months so to keep the comparison more relevant, I jumped ahead of my planned schedule on this, but the table will stay ordered by total score until September when the best 7 of 9 then will determine the order of scoring and the all-month total will appear at the end of the row.

rank/ FORECASTER _____ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL __ TOTAL _____ Best 5 of 7 (rank)


01 (02) DOCARCH _______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 ___ 464 ______ 357 (1)

02 (02) Con Sensus _____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 ___ 456 ______ 336 (7)

t02 (03) mickger844posts_ 74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 ___ 454 ______ 345 (3)
t02 (04) pauldry ________ 74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 454 ______ 338 (6)
04 (01) Tae laidir _______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 ___ 446 ______ 340 (5)
05 (08) Bsal ___________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 ___ 439 ______ 332 (t7)
06 (06) John mac _______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 ___ 436 ______ 323 (9)
07 (07) Rameire ________ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 ___ 426 ______ 318 (13)
08 (10) MrSkinner _______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 ___ 423 ______ 332 (t7)
09 (05) Rikand _________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 ___ 422 ______ 322 (10)
10 (09) Kindred Spirit ____54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 ___ 416 ______ 313 (15)
11 (17) M.T. Cranium ____53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 ___ 409 ______ 319 (t11)
12 (13) 200motels ______ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 ___ 405 ______ 319 (t11)

13 (13) NormaL _________43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 ___ 403 ______ 319 (t12)

13 (19) Dacogawa _______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 ___ 399 ______ 353 (2)
14 (11) sryanbruen ______43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 ___ 394 ______ 312 (16)
15 (13) Dasa29 _________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 ___ 388 ______ 294 (19)
16 (13) Joe Public _______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 ___ 381 ______ 300 (18)
t17 (16) sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 ___ 375 ______ 287 (20)
t17 (20) waterways ______49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 ___ 375 ______ 314 (14)
19 (18) Jpmarn _________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 ___ 367 ______ 302 (17)
20 (12) Lumi ___________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- ___ 343 ______ 343 (4)


21 (21) JCX BXC _______ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
22 (22) sdanseo _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 ___ 164
23 (23) waterjohn ______--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- ___ 101
24 (--) Gonzo _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 ____ 74

(best of occasionals) ____ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 ___ 360 _______ 321 (11)
=================================================

---

=================================================

After July, DOCARCH takes over the lead and the sole higher score than Con Sensus overall, although several have now overtaken Con in the best 5 of 7 category.

Largest moves up the table were Dacogawa and MTC (up by six), Bsal and waterways up three spots and MrSkinner up two.

Just for fun, I am showing a new entry, best of occasionals, to see how the part-time or occasional entrants are doing relative to the field. So far, about middle of the pack.

DOCARCH

* whoop *

dacogawa

Finally got the 90pts I might retire now... thank you July! wet, glum & a li'l patch of sun

Thanks too M.T. for all the hard work