July 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Checking the MS, all other values confirmed including the 103% average for sunshine, all stations generally 110% or higher except Valentia closer to 80%. This allows a quick edit of PRC to yield the following final values for scoring:

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus_____ TOTAL

Confirmed values ___ 15.1_26.2_3.0_122_103____ 16.9

Dacogawa _________ 25 _ 19*_ 18 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 10 ________ 90
Bsal ______________ 17 _ 19*_ 13 _ 13 _ 10 _____ 6 ________ 78
DOCARCH _________ 23 _ 16*_ 12 _ 09 _ 10 _____ 7 ________ 77
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 14*_ 15 _ 14 _ 07 _____ 4 ________ 77
Gonzo ____________ 20 _ 06*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 _____ 7 ________ 74
pauldry ___________ 20 _ 16*_ 15 _ 08 _ 10 _____ 3 ________ 72
mickger844posts ____18 _ 18*_ 11 _ 13 _ 07 _____ 3 ________ 70
MrSkinner _________ 21 _ 17*_ 14 _ 06 _ 09 _____ 3 ________ 70
200motels _ (-7) ____19 _ 20*_ 13 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 2 __ 76-7 = 69
waterways _________19 _ 08*_ 13 _ 11 _ 08 _____ 9 ________ 68

Normal ____________21 _ 08*_ 15 _ 08 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 66

John mac __________24 __00 _ 18 _ 07 _ 09 _____ 4 ________ 62

Con Sensus ________19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 6 ________ 61

Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 20 _ 04*_ 15 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 8 __ 62-2 = 60
Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 04*_ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 9 ________ 60
Dasa29 ___________ 18 _ 02*_ 10 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 2 ________ 52
Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___14 _ 02*_ 11 _ 12 _ 07 _____ 8 __ 54-3 = 51
Tae laidir __________19 _ 03*_ 06 _ 04 _ 08 ____ 10 ________ 50
Rikand ____________16 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 _ 07 _____ 8 ________ 46
sryanbruen ________ 15 _ 01*_ 10 _ 04 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 44
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 17 _ 00 _ 05 _ 11 _ 09 _____ 6 __ 48-3 = 45
Sunflower3 ________ 14 _ 08*_ 00 _ 06 _ 09 _____ 5 ________ 42
sdanseo ____ (-5) ___15 _ 00 _ 10 _ 09 _ 09 _____ 2 __ 45-5 = 40
__________________________________________________________

* MAX scores adjusted slightly, modified minimum progression invoked as seven scores were zero but high score of 19/20 and lack of missing scores in upper half of progression required a modest boost so that some zero scores became 01 or 02, scores that were already 02 to 07 got a 1-2 point boost and all above 08 got one extra point.

Congrats to dacogawa with a sizzling score in a not so sizzling month, hon mentions to Bsal, DOCARCH, and Gonzo (feels like I missed somebody).

(Table of forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Mull 3rd

Jpmarn ____ (-3) ___16.2 _ 28.5 _ 3.9 _ 130 _ 090 _____ 18.5*
Sunflower3 ________ 16.2 _ 27.5 _ 6.0 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 19.8
sdanseo ____ (-5) __ 16.1 _ 31.9 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 110 _____ 21.1*
sryanbruen ________ 16.1 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 19.4
Rikand ____________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 18.5
Joe Public __ (-3) ___ 15.9 _ 29.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 18.9*
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 17.2
Bsal ______________15.9 _ 26.4 _ 3.7 _ 115 _ 103 _____ 19.1
Dasa29 ___________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 100 _____ 21.0
mickger844posts ___ 15.8 _ 26.5 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 20.6
Tae laidir __________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 4.4 _ 088 _ 094 _____ 16.8
waterways _________15.7 _ 27.5 _ 3.7 _ 111 _ 093 _____ 17.3

Con Sensus ________ 15.7 _ 28.0 _ 3.8 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 19.1

200motels _ (-7) ____15.7 _ 26.3 _ 3.7 _ 119 _ 091 _____ 21.3*
Rameire ___ (-2) ___ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 103 _ 085 _____ 17.4*
Gonzo ____________ 15.6 _ 27.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 099 _____ 18.7
pauldry ___________ 15.6 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 20.4

Normal ____________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 19.8


MrSkinner _________ 15.5 _ 25.8 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 099 _____ 20.6
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 26.7 _ 3.8 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 18.6
M.T. Cranium _______15.3 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 20.1
John mac __________15.2 _ 29.5 _ 3.2 _ 098 _ 110 _____ 20.1
Dacogawa _________ 15.1 _ 26.4 _ 3.2 _ 131 _ 082 _____ 16.8

___________________________________________________________

Annual scoring update to follow, if I survive (nasty allergic reactions to heavy smoke content of our local atmosphere, feels like the annual winter mild flu sort of a thing except that it's hot outside).

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to June 2017

The first rank in brackets (column 2) is your rank from last month's table to show changes in the order of scoring. After the "best 5 of 7" another rank in brackets refers to your ranking in that scoring race. This portion has changed this month a bit ahead of schedule as one of the higher scoring forecasters (Lumi) has missed two months so to keep the comparison more relevant, I jumped ahead of my planned schedule on this, but the table will stay ordered by total score until September when the best 7 of 9 then will determine the order of scoring and the all-month total will appear at the end of the row.

rank/ FORECASTER _____ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL __ TOTAL _____ Best 5 of 7 (rank)


01 (02) DOCARCH _______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 ___ 464 ______ 357 (1)

02 (02) Con Sensus _____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 ___ 456 ______ 336 (7)

t02 (03) mickger844posts_ 74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 ___ 454 ______ 345 (3)
t02 (04) pauldry ________ 74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 454 ______ 338 (6)
04 (01) Tae laidir _______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 ___ 446 ______ 340 (5)
05 (08) Bsal ___________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 ___ 439 ______ 332 (t7)
06 (06) John mac _______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 ___ 436 ______ 323 (9)
07 (07) Rameire ________ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 ___ 426 ______ 318 (13)
08 (10) MrSkinner _______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 ___ 423 ______ 332 (t7)
09 (05) Rikand _________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 ___ 422 ______ 322 (10)
10 (09) Kindred Spirit ____54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 ___ 416 ______ 313 (15)
11 (17) M.T. Cranium ____53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 ___ 409 ______ 319 (t11)
12 (13) 200motels ______ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 ___ 405 ______ 319 (t11)

13 (13) NormaL _________43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 ___ 403 ______ 319 (t12)

13 (19) Dacogawa _______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 ___ 399 ______ 353 (2)
14 (11) sryanbruen ______43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 ___ 394 ______ 312 (16)
15 (13) Dasa29 _________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 ___ 388 ______ 294 (19)
16 (13) Joe Public _______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 ___ 381 ______ 300 (18)
t17 (16) sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 ___ 375 ______ 287 (20)
t17 (20) waterways ______49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 ___ 375 ______ 314 (14)
19 (18) Jpmarn _________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 ___ 367 ______ 302 (17)
20 (12) Lumi ___________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- ___ 343 ______ 343 (4)


21 (21) JCX BXC _______ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
22 (22) sdanseo _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 ___ 164
23 (23) waterjohn ______--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- ___ 101
24 (--) Gonzo _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 ____ 74

(best of occasionals) ____ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 ___ 360 _______ 321 (11)
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After July, DOCARCH takes over the lead and the sole higher score than Con Sensus overall, although several have now overtaken Con in the best 5 of 7 category.

Largest moves up the table were Dacogawa and MTC (up by six), Bsal and waterways up three spots and MrSkinner up two.

Just for fun, I am showing a new entry, best of occasionals, to see how the part-time or occasional entrants are doing relative to the field. So far, about middle of the pack.

DOCARCH

* whoop *

dacogawa

Finally got the 90pts I might retire now... thank you July! wet, glum & a li'l patch of sun

Thanks too M.T. for all the hard work