14 team Pro 12 from 2017/2018??

LeinsterDub

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I'm not sure I believe that. Purely because South Africans couldn't care less about our sides and they won't watch those games. I don't believe they'll bring enough viewers to justify doubling the TV rights for 2 games per week when the two sides are unlikely to make the playoffs.

Also it'll be competing with the Currie Cup for part of the season and Super Rugby for another part I think?

Oddly enough audience kind of doesn't matter sometimes. When you've x sports channels and you need to fill time slots and you also want to prevent your rivals getting the rights. Kind of like GAA on sky.

awec

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I'm not sure I believe that. Purely because South Africans couldn't care less about our sides and they won't watch those games. I don't believe they'll bring enough viewers to justify doubling the TV rights for 2 games per week when the two sides are unlikely to make the playoffs.

Also it'll be competing with the Currie Cup for part of the season and Super Rugby for another part I think?

There'll be an initial novelty factor but it'll wear off.

I'd be all for this if it didn't mean coming up with these daft league models with conferences and all that. If we could still do the traditional home and away it'd be fine.

I suspect we'll go to the Pro14 for a few seasons and inevitably we'll end up back at the Pro12. Either the South Africans will get fed up and give up on it, or it'll turn out they are liked and we'll get rid of the Italians.

irishbucsfan

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Oddly enough audience kind of doesn't matter sometimes. When you've x sports channels and you need to fill time slots and you also want to prevent your rivals getting the rights. Kind of like GAA on sky.

Nah, audience matters far more greatly than any other factor. And they attract a massive portion of the Super Rugby audience, I just think there's a greatly misplaced level of optimism of that translating over to Pro 12 rugby.

As for keeping your rivals out... Its Supersport or the state broadcaster...

LeinsterDub

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Nah, audience matters far more greatly than any other factor. And they attract a massive portion of the Super Rugby audience, I just think there's a greatly misplaced level of optimism of that translating over to Pro 12 rugby.

As for keeping your rivals out... Its Supersport or the state broadcaster...

Audience hasn't mattered to BT either

irishbucsfan

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Audience hasn't mattered to BT either

I assure you audience matters to those involved in their TV division to a huge extent, just not as much as things that are going on outside the world of TV altogether mean to others in their organisation. But now we're comparing (soon to be exclusive) Champions Cup and exclusive Premiership rugby rights in Europe to Pro 12 rights in South Africa.

LeinsterDub

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I assure you audience matters to those involved in their TV division to a huge extent, just not as much as things that are going on outside the world of TV altogether mean to others in their organisation. But now we're comparing (soon to be exclusive) Champions Cup and exclusive Premiership rugby rights in Europe to Pro 12 rights in South Africa.

I'm aware that audiences matter, I got distracted and posted half a post above. What I meant to say was that audiences aren't the only thing that matters it's important but not the only factor is the point I'm making.

Winters

My understanding is that Allianz Park has a limit of 16 matches that can be played there. It may not be a runner for any SA games played there.

irishbucsfan

Winters wrote: »

My understanding is that Allianz Park has a limit of 16 matches that can be played there. It may not be a runner for any SA games played there.

Maybe Sarries will move more games in order to free it up to rent out

Brewster

Strong rumours that the new US based franchise will be based out of Washington from DC. Team to join at the start of next season. Will become a 15 team league if two South African teams join...

Hastentoadd

Brewster wrote: »

Strong rumours that the new US based franchise will be based out of Washington from DC. Team to join at the start of next season. Will become a 15 team league if two South African teams join...

Find it difficult to believe that all this will be announced week/s before the new season schedule is announced. Maybe next season but this could not possibly happen within the next week or two behind closed doors. All of this could not fly so under the radar.

molloyjh

At the end of the day season tickets have been bought, sponsorships have been agreed, stadium deals are in place and TV deals are in place for next season. As a result the only way they can realistically add the SA teams is to increase the number of games. And that won't happen. I cannot see any chance of them being added for the season coming. There's far too many blockers to it. League format, European qualification, travel, TV deals etc. All these things have to be ironed out.

molloyjh

molloyjh wrote: »

At the end of the day season tickets have been bought, sponsorships have been agreed, stadium deals are in place and TV deals are in place for next season. As a result the only way they can realistically add the SA teams is to increase the number of games. And that won't happen. I cannot see any chance of them being added for the season coming. There's far too many blockers to it. League format, European qualification, travel, TV deals etc. All these things have to be ironed out.

Yeah totally agree with this.

If it's realistically going to happen then the most I see happening this year is when pro12 teams aren't taking part in European rugby they may pick up a few fixtures against the incoming SA teams. Obviously there will be more teams available later in the season.

They won't be fit into the regular season at this stage.

molloyjh

Especially not with the SA sides having already played a full season. They couldn't possibly do 2 back to back like that.

awec

If they are dropped from super rugby and they don't enter the pro12 for the upcoming season that'll mean they'll not have any regular games for about 14 months. Even if they play Currie Cup, that's still October - September without rugby.

How are they going to afford that, and how are they going to keep hold of their players in such a case? I would imagine the preference is to try everything to get them in next season.

It would make a bit of a mess of the coming season but they could try organise the fixtures so that the same number of games are played home & away on the same schedule, but not everyone plays everyone else twice. Against some teams you'd get both games, against some you'd have just a home game, against some you'd have just an away game. Would facilitate season ticket holders, sponsors, TV, etc etc etc without having to change everything up or renegotiate/reorganise on a very short timescale.

For the subsequent season then they could put proper organisation onto it. I'm sure all the contracts they sign with commercial partners have some sort of league expansion clause in them.

irishbucsfan

Armani Shy Bun wrote: »

I'm sure all the contracts they sign with commercial partners have some sort of league expansion clause in them.

Correct. There's absolutely no way in a million years that things like TV contracts and EPCR qualification don't take into account the possibility of the Pro 12 changing format, given the presence of the Italians.

But even accepting that they'll have mechanisms to handle all of that, it seems incredibly soon to have them in for September. Maybe the Pro 12 teams could all make a commitment to play them once each between January and May if travel is sorted, but even that seems a pretty big undertaking.

Burkie1203

molloyjh wrote: »

At the end of the day season tickets have been bought, sponsorships have been agreed, stadium deals are in place and TV deals are in place for next season. As a result the only way they can realistically add the SA teams is to increase the number of games. And that won't happen. I cannot see any chance of them being added for the season coming. There's far too many blockers to it. League format, European qualification, travel, TV deals etc. All these things have to be ironed out.

This has been mooted (expansion) for well over a year now. I would imagine they have all the scenarios drawn up ready to go. It would be crazy not to

molloyjh

There needs to be a lead in time for this. You can't announce radical change to the format of a competition less than 2 months before it kicks off. Below are the list of issues I can think of. I'm sure there are others. And while there may be talks going on behind the scenes and/or additional clauses that can help facilitate changes these are still issues that need to be addressed.

1. Both SA teams will have completed a full season around 6 weeks before the start of the new Pro12 season. Players can't be expected to play 2 seasons in a row with just a 6 week break in between.
2. Teams in the Pro12 qualify for the Champions and Challenge Cups. How would SA teams fit into this? There isn't room for 2 additional teams overall so how would they get added? Would they accept not being added? And what other issues then would it raise if they were at the expense of others?
3. Travel is a major issue. You simply won't get supporters travelling from one hemisphere to another for a league game. They barely travel within the original Celtic League countries, let alone another hemisphere.
4. Supporters have purchased season tickets for the season ahead for 14 home games. A conference system that reduces the number of games would require STHs getting refunds.
5. Some teams, e.g. Leinster, have agreements in place re a minimum number of games at their home ground.
6. All TV broadcasting rights and sponsorship deals have been done on the basis of the current set-up.
7. What SA players will stay and what ones will move with this news? The 2 sides themselves are weak sides as it is, and could end up being made weaker by the move.
8. Any changes to the structure of the competition will need to be agreed by all 5 Unions (7 if you include England and France due to European Rugby). We've already seen how long something like that can take. The season kicks off in 8 weeks.

Former Former

9. Wouldn't a lot of the South African players be signed up for Currie Cup which starts in a few weeks?

awec

What's to say this stuff hasn't been organised for months now?

I get the point that they can't play two seasons back to back with only 6 weeks break, but they also can't have 11 months break. The idea they go play Currie cup and then turn up for the 18/19 pro12 is surely a complete non-starter.

Former Former

awec wrote: »

What's to say this stuff hasn't been organised for months now?

I get the point that they can't play two seasons back to back with only 6 weeks break, but they also can't have 11 months break.

Yeah, that's possible, certainly the cutting back of Super Rugby teams has been well flagged.

But if teams have sold thousands of season tickets for next year on the basis of the existing set-up, it creates an issue if the offering is significantly changed.

By all accounts, the Cheetahs and Kings will be officially dropped as of tomorrow, so maybe the Pro12 will be ready to go with an announcement after that. It just seems like a lot of hurdles to overcome.

awec

Former Former wrote: »

Yeah, that's possible, certainly the cutting back of Super Rugby teams has been well flagged.

But if teams have sold thousands of season tickets for next year on the basis of the existing set-up, it creates an issue if the offering is significantly changed.

By all accounts, the Cheetahs and Kings will be officially dropped as of tomorrow, so maybe the Pro12 will be ready to go with an announcement after that. It just seems like a lot of hurdles to overcome.

Yep, logistically this is difficult and everyone is probably going to have to sacrifice something.

At the end of the day though the unions run the pro12 and the unions represent their clubs. There can be no blocking this from individual pro12 clubs because they have no power to do so anyway.

Also, I am wondering if the announcement is being delayed to after the Lions tour so that the Pro12 can maximise their media coverage.

errlloyd

Molloyjh I am going to play devils advocate on you, all in the interest of good fun. Apologies for the TL;DR.

1: They have completed a 15 game season, but they have no internationals and they won't be playing in Europe - and even if they did have internationals they would not be in the 6 Nations. So over the course of the pro12 season they will have some pretty decent rest periods where their whole squad will stay together. At least 8 weeks with no games between the season starting and Christmas.

2: I don't see any reason why South African teams could not qualify for the CC out of the Pro12 allocation. In terms of the challenge cup, there would need to be some wiggle - not insurmountable and we have a year to work it out.

3: Supporters don't travel anyway for regular league games. Only a few hundred supporters ever travel for away cup games. So I don't think is an issue.

4: I think the rumoured format that I posted still includes 10 or 11 home league games. So some season ticket holders lose a match, but in return they get to see a whole new team (or two).

5: Again, I imagine the RDS contract accepts that in any given year Zebre could go bust and we could only get 10 home league games.

6: I think TV and Sponsors would only be too delighted to have slightly increased coverage. Guinness is served in South Africa! Sky Sports already have a good relationship with their SA equivalent.

7: Those two South African sides could indeed end up weaker. I imagine many young Saffers grow up wanting to play Super Rugby. But many probably grow up wanting to make money, and maybe they feel playing in the pro12 will put themselves in the European shop window. So it could be a pull factor. Similarly, if you're a talented, impatient, youngster, at the Lions - and you missed your chance in Super Rugby this season. Maybe you'd be tempted to move.

8: Unions can be a pain. But the Celtic and Italian ones are all pretty cash strapped - the issue of Europe can be kicked down the road. The South Africans are desperate so they will join even without a promise of Europe.

errlloyd

awec wrote: »

Also, I am wondering if the announcement is being delayed to after the Lions tour so that the Pro12 can maximise their media coverage.

The organisation that runs the Pro12 also runs the Lions right? I'd say part of the delay is the fact that the whole office is probably down in New Zealand right now.

awec

The biggest problem with Europe is that the English and French clubs will have to agree to travel to South Africa for games.

awec

errlloyd wrote: »

The organisation that runs the Pro12 also runs the Lions right? I'd say part of the delay is the fact that the whole office is probably down in New Zealand right now.

Yea, the Six Nations and the Lions are in the same building across the road from the RDS.

I really doubt the RDS is going to be a hurdle, it's fairly ridiculous to think it could be some sort of blocker on the structure of the league. Again the contract will be designed to accommodate this sort of stuff, and I'd say it's in place simply to prevent Leinster from moving 5 games a year to Lansdowne.

Travelling is a non-issue for the reason given above, it doesn't happen anyway.

Just because we've all been blindsided by this, doesn't mean the powers-that-be have been.

Neil3030

The more I think about this, the more I think the main revenue advantages to having the SA teams in the Pro12 are SA expats living in the UK, who may attend games in venues like Allianz Park, or up their subs to Sky Sports, etc.

The Rand/SA economy otherwise being where they are, I just don't see how any significant money will actually come from SA itself.

molloyjh

errlloyd wrote: »

Molloyjh I am going to play devils advocate on you, all in the interest of good fun. Apologies for the TL;DR.

I'm the king of TL;DR so no apologies necessary!

errlloyd wrote: »

1: They have completed a 15 game season, but they have no internationals and they won't be playing in Europe - and even if they did have internationals they would not be in the 6 Nations. So over the course of the pro12 season they will have some pretty decent rest periods where their whole squad will stay together. At least 8 weeks with no games between the season starting and Christmas.

That is true, but a lot will depend on the format the league were to take. But arranging that is a bloody awkward thing that in itself contains loads of issues. For supporters not to be stung it would need to be a 20+ game season. The SR season started at the end of Feb so you're asking the team to play 35 games in a little more than 14 months. And some of their players will have Currie Cup commitments too in that time. That's just too much to expect of players. Especially when we've no idea if or how many players will leave their squads and what extra demands will be placed on those remaining.

errlloyd wrote: »

2: I don't see any reason why South African teams could not qualify for the CC out of the Pro12 allocation. In terms of the challenge cup, there would need to be some wiggle - not insurmountable and we have a year to work it out.

SA teams in Europe would require either a restructure of the 2 competitions or the removal of 2 other teams entirely. That alone is a big piece of the puzzle. They own't be able to qualify until 2018/19, but the mechanisms would need to be in place, or very nearly in place, before anything is finalised for the upcoming season.

errlloyd wrote: »

3: Supporters don't travel anyway for regular league games. Only a few hundred supporters ever travel for away cup games. So I don't think is an issue.

Surely we want to grow those numbers though? Not keep them low?

errlloyd wrote: »

4: I think the rumoured format that I posted still includes 10 or 11 home league games. So some season ticket holders lose a match, but in return they get to see a whole new team (or two).

See above re the impacts on the SA squads. Also, from the POV of the supporters, we're likely talking about 2 weaker teams.

errlloyd wrote: »

5: Again, I imagine the RDS contract accepts that in any given year Zebre could go bust and we could only get 10 home league games.

Yeah probably, but it's still something that needs to be worked through. I'm not sure who, if anyone, else would have that concern. As for the Zebre example, we'd just move the Munster game back to the RDS in that case. No contractual clauses or changes required.

errlloyd wrote: »

6: I think TV and Sponsors would only be too delighted to have slightly increased coverage. Guinness is served in South Africa! Sky Sports already have a good relationship with their SA equivalent.

They will unless it involves less games. And that links in with the first point above re the SA teams schedule.

errlloyd wrote: »

7: Those two South African sides could indeed end up weaker. I imagine many young Saffers grow up wanting to play Super Rugby. But many probably grow up wanting to make money, and maybe they feel playing in the pro12 will put themselves in the European shop window. So it could be a pull factor. Similarly, if you're a talented, impatient, youngster, at the Lions - and you missed your chance in Super Rugby this season. Maybe you'd be tempted to move.

Possibly, but if you're a SA youngster with ambitions would you really want to play for a weaker side on the other side of the globe in an unproven venture? Especially if some of your home games will be 11+ hours from home as is being mooted?

errlloyd wrote: »

8: Unions can be a pain. But the Celtic and Italian ones are all pretty cash strapped - the issue of Europe can be kicked down the road. The South Africans are desperate so they will join even without a promise of Europe.

The Celtic teams aren't so cash strapped that they'd do the turkey voting for Christmas thing. They'll still have strong positions on the whole thing. The Italians will want guarantees that they won't lose out on the league or Europe. And the SA sides surely won't be able to survive on Pro12 revenue alone?

SA teams in Europe would require either a restructure of the 2 competitions or the removal of 2 other teams entirely. That alone is a big piece of the puzzle. They own't be able to qualify until 2018/19, but the mechanisms would need to be in place, or very nearly in place, before anything is finalised for the upcoming season.

Why? They've changed the rules in the Pro12 to the top X teams qualifying for Europe, how does Saffer teams make any difference to that?

irishbucsfan

Armani Shy Bun wrote: »

Why? They've changed the rules in the Pro12 to the top X teams qualifying for Europe, how does Saffer teams make any difference to that?

All teams qualify for Europe. Only the top X teams qualify for the Champions Cup.

But there's a potentially very simple solution to this if there's a problem with the EPCR. The South African teams don't participate in Europe until there's an agreement.

connemara man

Armani Shy Bun wrote: »

Why? They've changed the rules in the Pro12 to the top X teams qualifying for Europe, how does Saffer teams make any difference to that?

What about the next 7 teams there are only 5 teams in the challenge cup for the pro 12. So let's say that the 2 Italians finish 11& 12 and the SA teams finish 9 & 10 that'll mean there's not Italians in the challenge cup but there will be a Russian team

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

But there's a potentially very simple solution to this if there's a problem with the EPCR. The South African teams don't participate in Europe until there's an agreement.

Yes, exactly. It's hardly insurmountable.

thomond2006

I think the quick changeover from Super Rugby to Pro12 is solved by the fact that European weekends will be rest weekends, along with the AIs and Six Nations.

molloyjh

Armani Shy Bun wrote: »

irishbucsfan wrote: »

But there's a potentially very simple solution to this if there's a problem with the EPCR. The South African teams don't participate in Europe until there's an agreement.

Yes, exactly. It's hardly insurmountable.

Nobody is saying anything is insurmountable. These are still issues that need to be addressed and agreed though. Preliminary discussions would absolutely need to happen on that front so that the SA teams at least have some idea where they stand.

stephen_n

It was mentioned that there would be extra local derbies outside the conference games, if these were home and away, that would make a minimum of 9 home games.

errlloyd

stephen_n wrote: »

It was mentioned that there would be extra local derbies outside the conference games, if these were home and away, that would make a minimum of 9 home games.

Minimum of 10, maximum of 11.

6 home conference games.
1 home derby game.
3/4 home games v other conference.

stephen_n

errlloyd wrote: »

3/4 home games v other conference.

How can that be guaranteed?

Cookiemunster

stephen_n wrote: »

How can that be guaranteed?

There are seven teams in the other conference that you play either home or away. So depending on the draw you get either 3 or 4 home games.

pickarooney

What if Zebre and Dragons went to the wall already and they're not announcing it until they have replacements?

The Kings are a non entity in rugby terms. They have no history, only a couple of seasons of Super Rugby and get hammered constantly. They don't have many fans and they're not a wealthy club. Dropping out of top flight rugby would just be a return to where they were two years ago.

The Cheetahs have more potential but nobody in their right mind is going to travel to Bloemfontein.

Podge_irl

Dragons are owned by the WRU now aren't they?

Wasn't there quite a large political movement behind the Kings getting into Super Rugby? I have only vague memories, but it sounds familiar.

errlloyd

stephen_n wrote: »

How can that be guaranteed?

The attached excel spreadsheet took longer to make than I care to admit. But it shows a 21 game season. In this 21 game season the following is true.

The provinces and welsh regions all play each other, home and away once.
The Scottish, Italian, South African teams, all play each other 3 times. 2 home, one away.

Everyone in conference A plays everyone else in conference A home and away.
Everyone in conference B plays everyone else in conference B home and away.

Everyone in conference A plays everyone in conference B either home or away.
Everyone in conference B plays everyone in conference A either home or away.

The following teams have 11 home games.

Leinster, Ulster, Scarlets, Cheetahs, Treviso, Ospreys, Edinburgh

The following teams have 10 home games.

Munster, Connacht, Blues, Treviso, Glasgow, Dragons, Kings

EDIT: Okay, while not impossible. I clearly made one or two errors. I still think the concept is proved.

Podge_irl

The number of teams is unfortunate for a conference system - having different numbers of home and away games is really not good.

connemara man

So season ticket prices will drop one of every 2 years? And the gate will go down one of every 2 years. Unless the TV revenue that comes in makes up for the shortfall which there no guarantee, the overall impact will be funds down.

death1234567

having different numbers of home and away games is really not good.

Meh, when there is a playoff system for the championship it's not really that big a deal.

molloyjh

death1234567 wrote: »

having different numbers of home and away games is really not good.

Meh, when there is a playoff system for the championship it's not really that big a deal.

When there's seeding for Europe there is. When there are play off places on the line it is. That system works well Ina lot of ways but is also massively flawed in others. Glasgow for example get more games against Italian opposition that any other top team in the league. If, say, Edinburgh and Connacht were neck and neck for a Champions Cup place in all other games Edinburgh would have a massive advantage with the the weakest teams in the competition in their schedule more than Connachts. Ospreys get a poor Cardiff and a poor Dragons while the "easiest" derby game Leinster get is Connacht. It's not even close to being a level playing field.

errlloyd

molloyjh wrote: »

When there's seeding for Europe there is. When there are play off places on the line it is. That system works well Ina lot of ways but is also massively flawed in others. Glasgow for example get more games against Italian opposition that any other top team in the league. If, say, Edinburgh and Connacht were neck and neck for a Champions Cup place in all other games Edinburgh would have a massive advantage with the the weakest teams in the competition in their schedule more than Connachts. Ospreys get a poor Cardiff and a poor Dragons while the "easiest" derby game Leinster get is Connacht. It's not even close to being a level playing field.

Glasgow have the same number of games against Italians as everyone else. They have an extra game against Edinburgh though.

I know it's unfair, but I wonder is it anymore unfair than the status quo. Hear me out. We already have a situation where depending on what point in the season you play a club, they wield vastly different teams.

molloyjh

errlloyd wrote: »

Glasgow have the same number of games against Italians as everyone else. They have an extra game against Edinburgh though.

I know it's unfair, but I wonder is it anymore unfair than the status quo. Hear me out. We already have a situation where depending on what point in the season you play a club, they wield vastly different teams.

Ah sorry, I misread that.

Brewster

Sorry my post wasn't clear, when I said next season for the Washington team, I meant season 18/19. The club will play out of a new stadium being built in DC for the soccer franchise. Audi is the stadium's sponsor.

bilston

errlloyd wrote: »

molloyjh wrote: »

When there's seeding for Europe there is. When there are play off places on the line it is. That system works well Ina lot of ways but is also massively flawed in others. Glasgow for example get more games against Italian opposition that any other top team in the league. If, say, Edinburgh and Connacht were neck and neck for a Champions Cup place in all other games Edinburgh would have a massive advantage with the the weakest teams in the competition in their schedule more than Connachts. Ospreys get a poor Cardiff and a poor Dragons while the "easiest" derby game Leinster get is Connacht. It's not even close to being a level playing field.

Glasgow have the same number of games against Italians as everyone else. They have an extra game against Edinburgh though.

I know it's unfair, but I wonder is it anymore unfair than the status quo. Hear me out. We already have a situation where depending on what point in the season you play a club, they wield vastly different teams.

That's a fair point. If you play the likes of Leinster, Munster etc in April you know you are playing full strength sides brimming with international quality players. Play them in Feb or Mar and it's a different story.