Crime rates

thestar

Looking at buying a house in a particular area so trying to find out as much as I can about the place. Just looking at crime stats here on the CSO but just curious if you can search for crime stats for a particular area?

nuac

thestar wrote: »

Looking at buying a house in a particular area so trying to find out as much as I can about the place. Just looking at crime stats here on the CSO but just curious if you can search for crime stats for a particular area?

Have a chat with a Garda sergeant in the locality

Samuel T. Cogley

I think Myhome has some function now to look at an area's demographics. Seems very much at the 'beta stage'.

+1 on Nuac's suggestion and I'll add the local Pharmacists are also a good port of call.

K.Flyer

You could try doing a search (e.g. "area" dublin assaulted) or substitute assaulted for robbery or shot and see what sort of results you get.
Not an exact science, but it would give some idea of what is going on in a particular area.

thestar

I am surprised though that crime stats for particular areas are not easily attainable on the census website.

Samuel T. Cogley

Fun fact, there are (or were) more public order issues in Donnybrook than Finglas. Would you look at the stats for D5 and conclude the Howth road must be an undesirable place to live?

It only takes being murdered once.

Crime and an area will usually be reflected in the house price. If it's lower than a Km or so away, there's a reason for it.

Dr Ben

The crime stats are BS just like the breathalyzer stats.

They always like to claim crime is "going down" when its only going up.

Victor

Dr Ben wrote: »

The crime stats are BS just like the breathalyzer stats.

They always like to claim crime is "going down" when its only going up.

Perceptions aren't always reality.

Samuel T. Cogley

Crime has been steadily decreasing but when you look at the stats there are some marked increases in certain crimes. It's a well documented facts that people's perceptions of crime are totally different to what's going on. It really only takes the lawn mower to be pinched for someone to think robberies are rampant.

It's a pretty good week and very little has happened also doesn;t sell many newspapers.

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Crime has been steadily decreasing but when you look at the stats there are some marked increases in certain crimes. It's a well documented facts that people's perceptions of crime are totally different to what's going on. It really only takes the lawn mower to be pinched for someone to think robberies are rampant.

It's a pretty good week and very little has happened also doesn;t sell many newspapers.

30 years ago it was very unusual for criminals to have 50 plus convictions but now it's common place.

The idea that crime is "going down" is laughable in the extreme.

Another problem we didnt have 30 years ago is the large numbers of foreign criminals committing crime.

About 20% of criminals in the Irish prison system come from outside Ireland.

With all the recent Garda scandals I don't know why anyone would believe the official crime statistics. They are nothing but a work of fiction.

Samuel T. Cogley

Dr Ben wrote: »

30 years ago it was very unusual for criminals to have 50 plus convictions but now it's common place.

The idea that crime is "going down" is laughable in the extreme.

Another problem we didnt have 30 years ago is the large numbers of foreign criminals committing crime.

About 20% of criminals in the Irish prison system come from outside Ireland.

With all the recent Garda scandals I don't know why anyone would believe the official crime statistics. They are nothing but a work of fiction.

30 years ago was 1987 - there we're plenty of scumbags in 1987, even 40 years back or 50 years back the UK at least would have seen plenty of petty criminals with many convictions. Perhaps it was different here 50 years ago, certainly wasn't in the 80s.

As for foreign criminals I really fail to see your point. Should I expect a better sort of rape, assault or burglar from an Irishman. We've a larger number of foreigners so a larger number of crimes. We've also a larger law abiding population.

Unless you're able to back up your claims with more than 'it must be true' I'm afraid I have to continue to believe the overwhelming evidence presented worldwide that the general public always think there is a crime wave.

For ****s and giggles 83,358 indictable crimes committed in 1987. Crimes are now reported differently but in 2014 there were roughly 70K crimes of an equivalent nature, some of those wouldn't be indictable (serious) offenses like the 1987 stats. So we're already 12.5% probably more like 20% down on 1987.

(2014 being the last consolidated stats I could find with 5 minutes and google).

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

30 years ago was 1987 - there we're plenty of scumbags in 1987, even 40 years back or 50 years back the UK at least would have seen plenty of petty criminals with many convictions. Perhaps it was different here 50 years ago, certainly wasn't in the 80s.

As for foreign criminals I really fail to see your point. Should I expect a better sort of rape, assault or burglar from an Irishman. We've a larger number of foreigners so a larger number of crimes. We've also a larger law abiding population.

Unless you're able to back up your claims with more than 'it must be true' I'm afraid I have to continue to believe the overwhelming evidence presented worldwide that the general public always think there is a crime wave.

For ****s and giggles 83,358 indictable crimes committed in 1987. Crimes are now reported differently but in 2014 there were roughly 70K crimes of an equivalent nature, some of those wouldn't be indictable (serious) offenses like the 1987 stats. So we're already 12.5% probably more like 20% down on 1987.

(2014 being the last consolidated stats I could find with 5 minutes and google).

Only 10 years ago we had more Garda stations than we have now.

Just by closing down Garda stations you will see a drop in the amount of recorded crime but that doesnt mean crime is actually down.

But leaving that aside why should we believe any "statistics" released by the Gardai given all the recent scandals ?



http://www.thejournal.ie/breath-test-3304187-Mar2017/

Victor

Dr Ben wrote: »

30 years ago it was very unusual for criminals to have 50 plus convictions but now it's common place.

Aren't most of these convictions related to people with substance abuse issues for modest petty theft, drug and public order crimes?

It's not like there are people wandering the streets who have committed 50 murders.

Peregrinus

thestar wrote: »

I am surprised though that crime stats for particular areas are not easily attainable on the census website.

The census doesn't have any questions relating to crime.

Samuel T. Cogley

Dr Ben wrote: »

Only 10 years ago we had more Garda stations than we have now.

Just by closing down Garda stations you will see a drop in the amount of recorded crime but that doesnt mean crime is actually down.

But leaving that aside why should we believe any "statistics" released by the Gardai given all the recent scandals ?



http://www.thejournal.ie/breath-test-3304187-Mar2017/

While I like a healthy level of skepticism; why should we not believe the stats from 1987 and 2014? I will even concede your point, as it's in the literature, that the reduction in police numbers, during a recession say, actually results in a reduction in reported crime. However I would also point out that Ireland is a relatively strange country with very focused population groups, furthermore, it's not necessary to go to the barracks to report a crime, most serious crimes like a burglary would have a guard attending. One usually doesn't care if that Guard came from Ringsend or Ballsbridge.

The fact remains that academic literature points to a general belief that crime is always rising. It's not. Certain crimes are indeed on the rise though and that should be addressed. I'm one of the first to be critical of the approach taken on violent crime, non-violent crime, we have it about a good as it's going to get with the current levels of funding.

Without wanting to twist the knife while making my point, you where the one to bring up that things where better 30 years ago I think you meant to say 40 or 50 years ago - I can't speak to a 60's Ireland but the 80s and now aren't all that different.

Dr Ben

Even 20 years ago we didn't have East European gangs here roaming the country.

With all the foreign criminals we have now as well as our own scumbags it could can only mean that crime is higher than it was in the past.

Former Garda John Wilson says that Ireland is now a a dumping ground for Eastern European Criminals who have no fear of getting caught.

Heres what he said...

In Ireland we must accept everybody , we must accept every scrounger , every criminal , every murderer , every robber , every rapist and by the way thats not an exaggeration , some very evil people have travelled into this country over the last number of years , any attempt to debate these issues are shut down by our media , nobody wants to engage in any proper debate , when somebody does raise the issue they are labelled racist , for such a well educated people we are very very stupid and dumb in this area

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Without wanting to twist the knife while making my point, you where the one to bring up that things where better 30 years ago I think you meant to say 40 or 50 years ago - I can't speak to a 60's Ireland but the 80s and now aren't all that different.

There is far more scumbags in dublin now than there was just 10 years ago.

Just take trip down the dublin boardwalk.

When I was growing up in the 80s there wasn't half as many scumbags in Dublin.

hullaballoo

Dr Ben wrote: »

There is far more scumbags in dublin now than there was just 10 years ago.

Just take trip down the dublin boardwalk.

When I was growing up in the 80s there wasn't half as many scumbags in Dublin.

This doesn't make any sense.

There wasn't a boardwalk in the 80s and 10 years ago was 2007 not 1987.

Are you sure this isn't just nostalgia on your part?

Victor

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I will even concede your point, as it's in the literature, that the reduction in police numbers, during a recession say, actually results in a reduction in reported crime.

A reduction in cocaine, booze and fast cars conspicuous consumption should result in a reduction in serious crime.

'Crimes of necessity' may increase.

Dr Ben wrote: »

There is far more scumbags in dublin now than there was just 10 years ago.

Just take trip down the dublin boardwalk.

No. They're just more prominent.

Samuel T. Cogley

I'm afraid I'm not aware of the heroin scene in Ireland in the 80s, but in the UK it was pretty bad, worse than now as it was seen as a fashionable/rebellious drug, of course for a realy good number of users we'd have to go back to when it was a recognised brand, but now I'm just being nostalgic! :pac:

In 2007 the heroin issue was as bad as it is now. They just used to congregate around Wood Quay instead.

As for gangs of Eastern Europeans, I'm not aware of any such gangs, except the ones working their bollocks off doing the job better than the natives, similar to the Irish in England. Roma - okay well aware of them but the vast majority of the time their biggest crime is begging.

As for being labeled a racist for poor ol' Garda Wilson, surely he of all people appreciates the irony of stereotypes are stereotypes for a reason.

The stats (which you don't believe - fair enough) and the academic literature simply do not bear out you're position, now that's not to say you aren't correct in pointing out there are some serious problems which have become more prominent, including incompetence (at best) by members of AGS and more brazen junkies. However I find people are very rarely willing to offer any well thought out solutions.

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

However I find people are very rarely willing to offer any well thought out solutions.

3 strikes and you're out would be a solution to career criminals along with building more prisons.

I would also get rid of all the current judges and put the victims of crime at the centre of the justice system.

Samuel T. Cogley

Dr Ben wrote: »

3 strikes and you're out would be a solution to career criminals along with building more prisons.

I would also get rid of all the current judges and put the victims of crime at the centre of the justice system.

I think you'll find if you look at those two policies both of them have been complete failures, creating more crime and more victims of more serious crimes.

I would suggest watching the BBC Documentary mini-series 'American Justice'. It gives a very good look at some of the unintended consequences of good intentions.

If you're willing to stup up an extra 5% or so in come tax to do what you're suggesting we could use it to make a real impact of the Irish prison system and start tackling some of the issues. I'm not sure you'd like what a modern prison would, and should, look like though which is more like a hospital than a centre of punishment.

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I think you'll find if you look at those two policies both of them have been complete failures, creating more crime and more victims of more serious crimes.

I would suggest watching the BBC Documentary mini-series 'American Justice'. It gives a very good look at some of the unintended consequences of good intentions.

If you're willing to stup up an extra 5% or so in come tax to do what you're suggesting we could use it to make a real impact of the Irish prison system and start tackling some of the issues. I'm not sure you'd like what a modern prison would, and should, look like though which is more like a hospital than a centre of punishment.

The Philippines have the right idea when it comes to a low cost prison model.

You don't have to spend a fortune to create thousands of new prison places.


The

Samuel T. Cogley

Dr Ben wrote: »

The Philippines have the right idea when it comes to a low cost prison model.

You don't have to spend a fortune to create thousands of new prison places.

Guatemala and some of the other Latin American countries just douse you down in petrol and set you on fire there and then, recently enough in Guatemala they did that to a 16 year old girl.

Given that level of 'deterrent', horrible prison conditions taken to the absolute extreme, why do these countries still have crime? Surely by your logic we just cram people in until they can't even lie down and problem solved, and before you answer, poorer country crimes of necessity etc. How do you explain the United States?

The Philippines and the US have exactly the wrong model, repeated the world over, for dealing with crime rates. Norway is what you're looking for:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-successful-2014-12?r=US&IR=T

Victor

Dr Ben wrote: »

The Philippines have the right idea when it comes to a low cost prison model.

Fair enough. You can clean up after the frequent suicides and attempted suicides that such conditions bring.

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Guatemala and some of the other Latin American countries just douse you down in petrol and set you on fire there and then, recently enough in Guatemala they did that to a 16 year old girl.

Given that level of 'deterrent', horrible prison conditions taken to the absolute extreme, why do these countries still have crime? Surely by your logic we just cram people in until they can't even lie down and problem solved, and before you answer, poorer country crimes of necessity etc. How do you explain the United States?

The Philippines and the US have exactly the wrong model, repeated the world over, for dealing with crime rates. Norway is what you're looking for:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-successful-2014-12?r=US&IR=T

America has its own racial problems which feed into crime.

That is one of the major down sides of living in a multicultural society.

Certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime.

Dr Ben

Victor wrote: »

Fair enough. You can clean up after the frequent suicides and attempted suicides that such conditions bring.

I would be more concerned with the victims of crime than any scumbags who take their own life.

mikemac2

Lazy journalists will link the crime to the Garda station that covers the area

Local toerag arrested and taken to Coolock station but that station covers a huge area

Dr Ben

One of the main problems with our justice system is that its all baised on the "rights" of criminals while forgetting about the victims of crime.

Victor

Dr Ben wrote: »

Certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime.

No. Crime is strongly linked to poverty. Poverty is linked to certain social groups. Certain social groups have been consistently discriminated against.

Your racism causes crime.

hullaballoo

Dr Ben wrote: »

Certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime.

The mask slips...

Dr Ben

hullaballoo wrote: »

The mask slips...

What I said is factually correct and no amount of Political Correctness can change that.

Dr Ben

Victor wrote: »

No. Crime is strongly linked to poverty. Poverty is linked to certain social groups. Certain social groups have been consistently discriminated against.

Your racism causes crime.

lol calling me "racist" is not an argument.

How can racism cause certain ethnic groups to murder each other ?

Samuel T. Cogley

I agree with Dr. Ben to be honest, hence the reason boarding houses would have the sign, no blacks, no dogs, no Irish on them. Predisposed to crime is Paddy - just look at our prison population, it's what 95% Irish?

HivemindXX

Dr Ben wrote: »

lol calling me "racist" is not an argument.

How can racism cause certain ethnic groups to murder each other ?

Calling you a racist is just a statement of fact. I realise there is a popular tactic whereby you claim that you can't say anything without being accused of racism. Then you complain about political correctness (or not being a dick as it is usually known). You may then try to paint yourself as a victim. This is cute, and somewhat effective. It was probably hatched in a US right wing think tank. It only goes so far though. It does not cover your "certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime". That's just too obviously racist. Thanks though, it's useful to remind the overly gullible that racism is a real thing, not just a fiction dreamed up by whichever bugbear you are tilting at today.

Dr Ben

HivemindXX wrote: »

Calling you a racist is just a statement of fact. I realise there is a popular tactic whereby you claim that you can't say anything without being accused of racism. Then you complain about political correctness (or not being a dick as it is usually known). You may then try to paint yourself as a victim. This is cute, and somewhat effective. It was probably hatched in a US right wing think tank. It only goes so far though. It does not cover your "certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime". That's just too obviously racist. Thanks though, it's useful to remind the overly gullible that racism is a real thing, not just a fiction dreamed up by whichever bugbear you are tilting at today.

Its not "racism" to state the facts.

Can you prove that certain ethnic groups are NOT more likely to get involved in crime ?

I've been called a "racist" yet I have not even mentioned any specific race.

I'm just pointing out that there are groups of people in America who are vastly overrepresented in US prison system.

Dr Ben

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I agree with Dr. Ben to be honest, hence the reason boarding houses would have the sign, no blacks, no dogs, no Irish on them. Predisposed to crime is Paddy - just look at our prison population, it's what 95% Irish?

At this stage our prisons are only about 80% Irish.

Pat Mustard

Dr Ben wrote: »

Can you prove that certain ethnic groups are NOT more likely to get involved in crime ?.

You are the poster who has asserted this. You must back it up.

Dr Ben wrote: »

At this state our prisons are only about 80% Irish.

Again, please back this up.

Dr Ben

Pat Mustard wrote: »

You are the poster who has asserted this. You must back it up.


Again, please back this up.

African Americans commited 52% of the murders in the US between 1980 to 2008 yet they are only 13% of US population.


https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-black-americans-commit-crime

Pat Mustard

Dr Ben wrote: »

At this stage our prisons are only about 80% Irish.

Can you back this up?

Dr Ben

Pat Mustard wrote: »

Can you back this up?

Here's a report from 2007 its probably higher now.

Irelands prison population and non-nationals an analysis

9,711 persons were sent to prison in 2007 compared to 9,700 in 2006.
Of those committed 6,447 were Irish nationals or 66.4% of the total 9,711, which is a decrease of 352 on the
corresponding 2006 figure of 6,799. Almost one third of persons committed in 2007 were non–Irish nationals.
Other EU nationals (excluding Ireland) accounted for 1,354 (13.9%) of persons committed.
Other European nationals accounted for 311 (3.2%), African nationals for 612 (6.3%), Asian nationals for 611 (6.3%) and
Central/South American nationals accounted for 303 (3.1%)

Prison commitals (2007 report) [1]
Irish ******* 6,447 66.4%
All non-nationals 3264 33.6%
EU ********* 1126 11.6%
African ****** 612 6.3%
Asian ******* 611 6.3%
other european 311 3.2%
latin American * 303 3.1%
UK **********228 2.3%
North American 18 .02%


General population by nationality (2006 census) [2]
Irish 3,706,683
All non-nationals 419,733
EU 163227
UK 112,548
Asian 46952
African 35326
Other european 24425
North American 14775
Latin American 6249

Ratio of Prison commital to General population
Latin American 0.04849
African ***** 0.0173
Asian ****** 0.0130
other european 0.0127
All non-nationals 0.0077
EU ********* 0.006898
UK ********* 0.002
Irish ******** 0.00174
North American 0.0012

So in summary based on Prison commitals North Americans are the most law biding and South Americans commit the most crime.

Pat Mustard

http://www.irishprisons.ie/images/pdf/ar2014_english.pdf

Of the 13,408 persons committed, 11,124 were Irish Nationals (83.0%)

The 2014 Prison Service Report says 83% Irish, which is closer to the figure that you quoted previously.

Samuel T. Cogley

Pat Mustard wrote: »

http://www.irishprisons.ie/images/pdf/ar2014_english.pdf



The 2014 Prison Service Report says 83% Irish, which is closer to the figure that you quoted previously.

White Irish people make up 84.5% of the population... just for the basis of comparison like. So we've a 1.5% difference there so it looks like Dr. Ben is right all the way. Poorer people, sorry foreign nationals do commit more* crime.

*tiny, tiny amounts more on this incredibly simplistic analysis.

Peregrinus

Dr Ben wrote: »

I'm just pointing out that there are groups of people in America who are vastly overrepresented in US prison system.

No, what you actually said was this:

Dr Ben wrote: »

Certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime.

That's a complete different claim, and one for which you have produced neither argument nor evidence. And now you appear to be trying to walk away from it. Which doesn't suprise me in the least.

Dr Ben

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, what you actually said was this:

That's a complete different claim, and one for which you have produced neither argument nor evidence. And now you appear to be trying to walk away from it. Which doesn't suprise me in the least.

Google the “The Color of Crime".

Everything I said is backed up by facts.

But we live in a strange world were you can be branded a "racist" simply for teling the truth.

GM228

Dr Ben wrote: »

Google the “The Color of Crime".

Everything I said is backed up by facts.

But we live in a strange world were you can be branded a "racist" simply for teling the truth.

One book about one countries crime rates does not mean fact that would apply here, there would need to be greater worldwide studies by a diverse group to back it up as fact. Russell Brown is an African American who downplays certain categories of crime in the book - bias?

I'm not saying the facts are wrong in the book, but you need more than one sorce from different represented groups (to avoid bias) to find true facts and a bigger worldwide study. American crime simply isn't comparable to here.

Peregrinus

Dr Ben wrote: »

Google the “The Color of Crime".

Everything I said is backed up by facts.

But we live in a strange world were you can be branded a "racist" simply for teling the truth.

Sorry, you're asking me to do research to back up a claim that you made?

Why in God's name would I want to do that? This is your claim, Ben; if you want us to take is seriously you need to offer us some reason for doing so.

johnnyskeleton

Pat Mustard wrote: »

http://www.irishprisons.ie/images/pdf/ar2014_english.pdf



The 2014 Prison Service Report says 83% Irish, which is closer to the figure that you quoted previously.

Dont forget that prison committals can be misleading because it includes people committed for deportation/removal/extradition purposes. A tiny fraction of these will be Irish.

Dr Ben

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sorry, you're asking me to do research to back up a claim that you made?

Why in God's name would I want to do that? This is your claim, Ben; if you want us to take is seriously you need to offer us some reason for doing so.

Something tells me that whatever evidence I could produce to back up my argument you would just dismiss me as being "wacist".

So I won't waste my time.

The fact of the matter is that certain ethnic minorities are predisposed to crime.

You only have to look at America to see that.

African Americans commited 52% of the murders in the US between 1980 to 2008 yet they are only 13% of US population.

Pat Mustard

Dr Ben wrote: »

Something tells me that whatever evidence I could produce to back up my argument you would just dismiss me as being "wacist".

So I won't waste my time.

You need sources to back what you say. If you can't or won't back up what you say, then don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

This assertion that "you would just dismiss me as being "wacist"" is weak. Very weak.

If you don't want to waste your time, at least don't waste other people's time.

Victor

Dr Ben wrote: »

African Americans commited 52% of the murders in the US between 1980 to 2008 yet they are only 13% of US population.

Importantly, and you know this.

Well-off people like drugs.

Poor people know this.

Poor people, desperate for a standard of living, sell drugs to well-off people.

Other poor people, who also sell drugs to well-off people see their standard of living impaired and start a turf war. Because, well, they can't complain to the police or the competition authority, because those organisations are structured to help well-off people.

It just so happens that many of the poor people are black. Because well-off people have made it so that many black people are poor.

Now consider this. Police officers make up about 0.2% of the US population, but commit about 7% of homicides. Should we imprison all police officers for their homicidal tendencies?