Crime rates

Dr Ben

Victor wrote: »

Importantly, and you know this.

Well-off people like drugs.

Poor people know this.

Poor people, desperate for a standard of living, sell drugs to well-off people.

Other poor people, who also sell drugs to well-off people see their standard of living impaired and start a turf war. Because, well, they can't complain to the police or the competition authority, because those organisations are structured to help well-off people.

It just so happens that many of the poor people are black. Because well-off people have made it so that many black people are poor.

Now consider this. Police officers make up about 0.2% of the US population, but commit about 7% of homicides. Should we imprison all police officers for their homicidal tendencies?

So why don't we see poor whites in America commit crime at the same rate as their African American counterparts ?

There is alot of bogey police out there especially in this country. You won't find me defending the police.

In England the police did nothing about the muslim rape gangs because they didn't want to be seen as racist.

GM228

Dr Ben wrote: »

One of the main problems with our justice system is that its all baised on the "rights" of criminals while forgetting about the victims of crime.

You will find it the same in pretty much every system in the world, the criminal courts are not there to mollycoddle the victim and give them a hug so they know they are not forgotten, they are there to find on the question of guilt and punish the offender where appropriate - nothing more.

And it isn't about the rights of the criminal, its the rights of the accused, not everyone accused is guilty - rights are there for good reason, it's just unfortunate that some know how to use those rights to their advantage.

Dr Ben wrote: »

There is alot of bogey police out there especially in this country. You won't find me defending the police.

A lot? Really? And in this country - care to back that up? Yes there have beeb scandles etc but I would say those issues lie with a minority of higher ranks rather than a "lot".

Dr Ben wrote: »

In England the police did nothing about the muslim rape gangs because they didn't want to be seen as racist.

This was the unfortunate result in attitude of the Police who favoured political correctness following Sir William MacPhersons accusations on the Police forces of the UK of "institutionalised racism" in the Stephen Lawrence enquiry, he made an accusation which could not be refuted by anyone who had the misfortune to be accused of it.

However well you behaved, however scrupulously you treated people of different races and without regard to their ethnic identity or the colour of their skin, you would be guilty of institutionalised racism, simply on account of the institution to which you belonged and on behalf of which you were acting. Not surprisingly, sociologists and social workers, the vast majority of whom are professionally disposed to believe that middle class society is incurably racist, latched on to the expression. MacPherson too climbed onto the bandwagon since, at the time, it was the easiest and safest way to wash your hands in public.

I'm not condoning it, but there are very specific reasns why it happened and has nothing o do with the thread.

Really Interested

Dr Ben wrote: »

At this stage our prisons are only about 80% Irish.

In 2014

Irish 83%
Uk. 2.2%
EU. 9.3%
Other European 1.1%

So total Irish and European 95.4%

African 2.1%
Asian1.5%
Central South America .4%
North American .2%

The Irish population is actully growing since 2008

http://www.irishprisons.ie/wp-content/uploads/documents_pdf/nationality_commitals_year_2008_2014.pdf

GM228

Dr Ben wrote: »

Something tells me that whatever evidence I could produce to back up my argument you would just dismiss me as being "wacist".

So I won't waste my time.

The fact of the matter is that certain ethnic minorities are predisposed to crime.

You only have to look at America to see that.

African Americans commited 52% of the murders in the US between 1980 to 2008 yet they are only 13% of US population.

You do know that bolding statements does not make them any more factual don't you. Facts need to be corroborated. I'll post some real facts for you and I won't even need to bold them as I'll post with the relevant links aswell.

Official crime rates are (since 1994) published annually under the FBIs Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program and the reports say a slightly different story.

With regards to your 52% fact, the facts are 52.5%* of homicides (not murders) between 1980-2008 were by black or African American offenders as per the US Bureau of Justice Statistics report "Homicide Trends in the United States 1980-2008. Murder and homicide are not the same as homicide includes both murder and manslaughter.

*The 52.5% is questionable, in around 30% of homicides each year there is no known offenders and as such race isn't known - it is basically guessed, the BOJ formulated a way to guess the unknown 30% for the purposes of the report.

To adjust for homicides with no offender information, a method for off ender imputation was devised that uses available information about murder victims for which corresponding off ender information was provided as well as those with missing off ender information. Th rough this imputation algorithm, the demographic characteristics of unidentified offenders were inferred on the basis of similar homicide cases—similar in terms of the victim’s demographic profile, circumstances of the homicide such as felony or argument, location of the homicide (region and urban), gun involvement, and year of the offense— for which off ender data were provided. In other words, unknown off ender profiles were estimated based on the off ender profiles in offender-known cases, matched on victim age, sex, and race; circumstances of the homicide; location of the homicide; gun involvement; and year. Offender-based estimates in this report were imputed using this procedure. Other estimates in this report were based on homicides with known attributes, unless otherwise indicated.

This is something that the UCR currently refuses to do as it is consindered to be not well founded as you simply can't guess details to suit the statistics. Facts are based on just that - facts, not guesses or filling in the blanks.

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf


So lets look at the official known homicide statistics since UCR reports began in 1995.

The latest UCR report from the FBI shows black or African American homicide offender rates for 2015 at 36.7%.

Black or African American homicide offenders since 1995:-

1995. 36.9%
1996. 38%
1997. 37.3%
1998. 35.3%
1999. 35.7%
2000. 36.5%
2001. 35.6%
2002. 35.3%
2003. 35.7%
2004. 35.2%
2005. 37.6%
2006. 39.3%
2007. 37.9%
2008. 36.5%
2009. 37.4%
2010. 38.2%
2011. 37.7%
2012. 37.9%
2013. 38%
2014. 37.2%
2015. 36.7%

The average for the period 2009-2015 (the period after the BOJ report) is 37.5% per year.

The total average for the 1995-2015 period of 21 years is 38.79% - the yearly % has never gone above 39.3% in 21 years.

(Why was 2006 so bad, or 1996, 2010 and 2013?)

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/home


Arrest statistics are interesting, overall in 2015 50.4% of arrests for homicide were black or African Americans with 46.5% being white - not a huge difference is it?

Overall though white people accounted for the majority of all arrests which resulted in a charge for all crimes at 69% in 2015, whilst black or African American accounted for just 26.6%.

The big problem with the US statistics is that the UCR reporting system only currently keeps details of race in relation to homicide offences and arrests. Race details are not kept statistically for any other crimes nationally, however the new National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) does record race for most types of offences (minor and major), problem with the system is it is only currently active in about 36% of the entire US. By 2021 it will cover the entire US and will be the standard system used for reporting and statistics. In the 36% of the US that is covered 56.9% of offenders are white, only 27.3% of offenders are black or African American - is this an indication of what the national statistics will be like in 2021 - wait and see.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/nibrs/2015

Dr Ben wrote: »

Certain ethnic groups are predisposed to crime.

Dr Ben wrote: »

The fact of the matter is that certain ethnic minorities are predisposed to crime.

Statistics simply don't agree with this. Unless you want to try and say "white", "black" or "African American" are an ethnic group (they are not) in which case your statement would be true.



Anyway, whilst the overall national statistics for homicide may be higher for black or African Americans over white, the national arrest statistics and NIBRS statistics show a lower overall crime rate, but......


Lets anlyse 2015s statistics.

US population
Total = 323,127,513
White (76.3%) = 248,485,057
Black/African American (13.3%) = 42,975,959

Arrests
White = 5,753,212
Black/African American = 2,197,140

Whilst there may be 3,556,072 more arrests of white people, lets look at this way....

White = 5,753,212 = 2 per 100 people
Black/African American = 2,197,140 = 5 per 100 people

That means a 250% higher rate of arrest of black/African American people than white.


Homicides
White = 4,636 = 2 per 100,000 people
Black/African American = 5,620 = 13 per 100,000 people

Thats a massive 650% higher rate of black/African American homicide offenders than white.




Hum, after all that I guess Dr Ben is correct (in the US in 2015 anyway), whilst nationally black/African Americans don't account for the majority of US crimes, per capita based on race their crime rate is probably considerably higher than white people if the arrest rate is anything to go by.