Official Conor McGregor thread (part 4) *Updated Warning in 1st Post Re:Boxing match

Lukker-

Useful.Idiot wrote: »

Have we not? He was able to resist some of Lee's takedowns using defensive wrestling and he got a nice takedown or two on Barboza if I remember correctly?

Conor has shown some excellent take-down defense, but I wouldn't exactly class him as a good wrestler. He shrugged Lee off once or twice, but Lee was badly gassed in that fight early IMO. Not sure if it was the staph or weight cut, or even just emptying himself out early on.

He did land a couple on Barboza, but his main outlet is kicks so he is always open to getting taken down and generally does in fights if his opponent can time a shot well.

Like Ferguson isn't a bad wrestler by any means, I just don't think he's great either, and doesn't really utilize it all that much.

Gamebred

Ferguson is a zombie will be break dancing by rd 3 when Conor is blowing out his arse, delusional giving him no chance against Conor.

Frank Bullitt

Gamebred wrote: »

Ferguson is a zombie will be break dancing by rd 3 when Conor is blowing out his arse, delusional giving him no chance against Conor.

This is what I see as well.

Tony has a granite head like Diaz, but he is way sharper with his hands.

Useful.Idiot

Gintonious wrote: »

This is what I see as well.

Tony has a granite head like Diaz, but he is way sharper with his hands.

Emm Nate's the way better boxer actually. Tony's more unorthodox sure but he'd probably get outboxed if he fought Nate.

Gamebred

For some reason people think Nate's boxing is of pro standard, its not! he cant box eggs in the true sense of boxing his fundamentals are awful, his output and ability to take a shot make people think hes a great boxer, he literally has a good 1-2 and that is all, will not see slip counters, uppercuts, bodys shots and so on from him, again I've always been a fan an his striking is good for mma but hes beginning to be overated, which is funny considering he didnt land a glove on Conor till McGregor was gassed twice.

Useful.Idiot

Don't think he's pro standard. Still one of the best boxers in the division though. Micheal Johnson had his hands full. He doesn't need more than his jab and one two in MMA if he's landing. it's his long stance, reach and timing that make his style work. He may not have been landing the real big sig strikes in both fights until Conor gassed but he was landing plenty to head and body the whole way through both fights.

Lukker-

Gamebred wrote: »

For some reason people think Nate's boxing is of pro standard, its not! he cant box eggs in the true sense of boxing his fundamentals are awful, his output and ability to take a shot make people think hes a great boxer, he literally has a good 1-2 and that is all, will not see slip counters, uppercuts, bodys shots and so on from him, again I've always been a fan an his striking is good for mma but hes beginning to be overated, which is funny considering he didnt land a glove on Conor till McGregor was gassed twice.

Well when people talk about boxing skills of an MMA fighter, they are generally talking about it from an MMA perspective. Plenty of pro boxers are the same as him, reliant on jab or a timed overhand, doesn't mean they have poor fundamentals. I don't particularly think he needs much more than a 1-2 the way he fights. Uppercuts wouldn't add much to his arsenal imo, unless he was using it defensively against takedowns. He's got a decent right hook too, which sometimes he throws hard or a slap. You can't really talk about his boxing fundamentals IMO, unless we were watching him in a pure boxing fight because boxing fundamentals go out the window in freestyle fight.

wonderfullife

Dana on a random little 3-day trip to London on Monday while Audie Attar (manager of both Conor & Tony) also on a random little 3-day trip on Monday... to London.

https://twitter.com/ParadigmSM/status/918136614836039680

https://twitter.com/danawhite/status/917713828120588289


Coincidence I'm sure ... :pac:

Bear with me this will be a long one I think

I wouldn't be hugely surprised to hear Conor v Tony announced for December 30th given:

a) Audie would be doing both sides of the deal so theoretically it would be easier to complete than dealing with 2 agents,
b) Dana seems to have a decent relationship with Audie,
c) Conor seems to get bored when he's not fighting and I doubt changing nappies is his thing,
d) Tony is "probably" not too difficult to make happy in this deal,
e) Conor is probably very confident of KO'ing him early due to Tony's chin being so exposed,
f) I get the feeling Conor doesn't want to end the year 0-1 on a loss. If he beats Tony he can rightly say he's 1-0 for the year in his own sport,
g) MOST IMPORTANTLY - the UFC are currently in the process of negotiating their new tv-rights-deal. (I'll get to why I think that's important).

At the end of the day, if you read nothing else.... - Conor turns up to the opening of an envelope for 75 grand and a few double vodkas, so he'll obviously turn up for good money to fight Tony. :pac:

I'm only guessing here but I could see a scenario where Tony settles for $1 million disclosed + PPV points with Conor getting maybe $10 million disclosed + PPV points + a small % of the company going forwards.

I know $1 million sounds low for Tony but it's worth remembering Eddie accepted 500k + PPV points last year and he seemed delighted with the rumoured $4.5 million he cleared! It'd be a hell of a lot more for Tony than the 200k/200k he got against Kevin Lee, it would quadruple his career earnings in one night because he could easily clear $5 million if all went well and he'd probably be extremely happy.

People have this misconception that the UFC will make far more money if Conor fights Nate but that's only true if a) they can get Nate on the cheap and b) If Conor wins. Realistically Nate only adds 300k PPV buys which works out at $9 million gross for the UFC, so for him to demand $20m (even $10m) means the Ferguson fight is actually the bigger money-maker right now.

Even allowing for all that, the Diaz 2 fight came at a time when Conor's twitter following was about 1.9 million (now 6m+) and his Instagram following was roughly 5.7 million (now 20.6m). Social media following doesn't necessarily mean everything but it's a good indicator of levels of fame.

He's a much bigger star now than he was going into UFC 202 and could probably carry this December 30th PPV to 1.6 million regardless of opponent - which is even more reason for Dana to push for the Ferguson fight.

Crucially:

The UFC need to end 2017 on a high because they're in the middle of the TV-rights-negotiations period where they can start fielding offers. There's no better showcase for the UFC to put on for ESPN/Showtime/NBC/Amazon/Netflix than a Conor fight with a load of Irish in town.

I really feel that's a critical point in this whole situation - they really need to close out the year with two or three marquee events if they want to paper over the cracks of how bad 2017 has been and right now they only have MSG and, even then, there's doubts over GSP's drawing power remaining in tact.

(Separate prediction - Amazon will bid big for the rights and secure some of them in conjunction with ESPN & Fox ....going down the NFL model).

Anyway, 2018 could be a boom year for the UFC if Conor wins and turns around and fights March/July (international fight week)/November (MSG) 2018 on the back of a win to close out 2017. But it would be vital to go Ferguson first so Dana can at least pitch it to ESPN/Amazon etc that Conor will fight Nate if he loses the belt.

Conor & the UFC would be crazy to go Diaz first imo. It would be a hammer blow to their bargaining position for the negotiations because they can't then argue they have Diaz 3 in their back pocket if Conor suffers a defeat to Nate losing the belt.

Conor is the jewel in the UFC's crown and their biggest bargaining chip in these negotiations. Fighting Nate now would be like dumping your girlfriend hoping to get back with your ex, but before asking your ex and then ending up with nobody.

I've been wrong plenty before but I'd be stunned if they go Diaz next for all of the above reasons.

TL;DR - I suspect we'll hear an announcement Tuesday week ish. I could have sworn I saw Dillon make a now-deleted comment on social media along the lines of "see you soon" to one of the Irish lads. Just guessing but he might prove a very handy man to have around as he has some exceptional guard work to help Conor prepare.

LollipopJimmy

Pic on Conor in SBG on Facebook today, fresh pic too, it's the new mats that went in a month ago

Mellor

Lukker- wrote: »

Well when people talk about boxing skills of an MMA fighter, they are generally talking about it from an MMA perspective. Plenty of pro boxers are the same as him, reliant on jab or a timed overhand, doesn't mean they have poor fundamentals. I don't particularly think he needs much more than a 1-2 the way he fights. Uppercuts wouldn't add much to his arsenal imo, unless he was using it defensively against takedowns. He's got a decent right hook too, which sometimes he throws hard or a slap. You can't really talk about his boxing fundamentals IMO, unless we were watching him in a pure boxing fight because boxing fundamentals go out the window in freestyle fight.

It's not just his fundamentals in a boxing match. MMA still has its own striking fundamentals. Nate's (and Nick's) aren't good imo. Head movement, footwork, checking kicks. His defense amounts to taking a high output to swarm the opponent, and the ability to take a shot. The Homer Simpson defense. Sure it's effective at times, but it's not "good striking".
Michael Johnson is a wrestler doesn't take much to out-box him.

wonderfullife wrote: »

TL;DR - I suspect we'll hear an announcement Tuesday week ish. I could have sworn I saw Dillon make a now-deleted comment on social media along the lines of "see you soon" to one of the Irish lads. Just guessing but he might prove a very handy man to have around as he has some exceptional guard work to help Conor prepare.

Danis was rushed to hospital this week. Emergency surgery I believe. I doubt it's anything life threatening or anything so I'd imagine he'll still be a part of the Tony camp. IMO the biggest advantage he brings to camp is not his guard but his darce. He's known for his darce, a submission that Tony has shown to favour.

Useful.Idiot

wonderfullife wrote: »

TL;DR - I suspect we'll hear an announcement Tuesday week ish. I could have sworn I saw Dillon make a now-deleted comment on social media along the lines of "see you soon" to one of the Irish lads. Just guessing but he might prove a very handy man to have around as he has some exceptional guard work to help Conor prepare.

Great post man. Would be interested to see what people would make of this on the MMA subreddit.

I watched an older interview with McGregor in the lead-up to Nate 1, and he said the analytics showed that Nate was the fight the fans wanted then in the place of RDA. I get a general sense online that people are pushing back against Nate 3, so hopefully they outnumber the Nate fans and that the analytics point to Tony.

BlueBaron

Hope your right Wonderfullife, I'm in Vegas that week and a McGregor fight would top it off!

Gamebred

Heard MSG is booked out for Paddys day so thats a no go surely any info on that Wonder.

srfc d16

Gamebred wrote: »

Heard MSG is booked out for Paddys day so thats a no go surely any info on that Wonder.

The Knicks have a game in MSG on the 17th of March

Lukker-

Mellor wrote: »

It's not just his fundamentals in a boxing match. MMA still has its own striking fundamentals. Nate's (and Nick's) aren't good imo. Head movement, footwork, checking kicks. His defense amounts to taking a high output to swarm the opponent, and the ability to take a shot. The Homer Simpson defense. Sure it's effective at times, but it's not "good striking".

His head movement ain't there, but he's got a good understanding of range. Disagree re footwork too, he cuts people off pretty well. He is reliant on high output and setting a pace, but that's how a good deal of boxing bouts are decided.

Lukker-

UFC 216 did 120k buys according to Meltzer. I hope the Ferguson fight happens, I just don't think the UFC is serious about it. If Conor only has a couple of fights left they want them to be superfights, not against some guy who can barely break 100k on his own.

xtal191

Lukker- wrote: »

UFC 216 did 120k buys according to Meltzer. I hope the Ferguson fight happens, I just don't think the UFC is serious about it. If Conor only has a couple of fights left they want them to be superfights, not against some guy who can barely break 100k on his own.

Wouldnt be surprised if 214, 215 and 216 did less than 500k combined

Lukker-

xtal191 wrote: »

Wouldnt be surprised if 214, 215 and 216 did less than 500k combined

I'd be shocked if 214 didn't do 500k at least seeing as Jones/Cormier 1 did 800k

UFC 215 did 100k supposedly

Useful.Idiot

214 was estimated 860k

xtal191

Lukker- wrote: »

I'd be shocked if 214 didn't do 500k at least seeing as Jones/Cormier 1 did 800k

UFC 215 did 100k supposedly

Yep getting my cards mixed up

Lukker-

Useful.Idiot wrote: »

214 was estimated 860k

Yeah I saw that, but I dunno how accurate that number was because it seemed to stem from the figure that 860k people watched the prelims

sc86

120k buys?
good jesus thats awfull

ufc is defo on a downward trend this year

Sofiztikated

Convenient that the WWE wrestling rumour is gathering steam, and the UFC figures come in terrible.

"Lads, youse need PPV, give me shares, or I'll spend 6 months making dollar for them."

Zero-Cool

Tony Montana reference or he's coming for Tony... Goddamn I hope it's the latter!!

https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/918871919293882369

Frank Bullitt

Zero-Cool wrote: »

Tony Montana reference or he's coming for Tony... Goddamn I hope it's the latter!!

https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/918871919293882369

Fairly accurate on the belly.

ricero

Time for mcnugget and all his fanboys to get humbled by the hands of el cucuy

Lukker-

ricero wrote: »

Time for mcnugget and all his fanboys to get humbled by the hands of el cucuy

sPoken lIke tOny fErgUson

Lukker-

https://twitter.com/John_Kavanagh/status/918872736310681600

Looks like it is a call out. Imo McGregor was alluding to the fact that Tony repeatedly says Conor never says his name. (I don't think he mentioned Eddie's name once before 205 was announced)

Useful.Idiot

Lukker- wrote: »

Looks like it is a call out. Imo McGregor was alluding to the fact that Tony repeatedly says Conor never says his name. (I don't think he mentioned Eddie's name once before 205 was announced)

That's exactly what it is

GerryDerpy

Would be deadly if that fight is on end of December!

I’d have Conor as solid favourite. I think it would be similar to the Alvarez fight - Conor landing accurate counters and dropping Tony, but Tony is tough and will get up 2/3 times, with Conor not finding an easy way to finish him on the deck, but the 4th knockdown will be too much and he will not have the senses to defend ground & pound, Conor victory mid-late round 2. If it goes to round 3 Conor will fade and Tony will have confidence.

I just don’t see the path to victory for Tony - he will fail to take Conor down (like Diaz + Eddie), and won’t be able to hurt him with punches. Floyd Mayweather couldn’t daze Conor and he was able to throw his best shots again and again.