Brexit discussion thread II

demfad

carrickbally wrote: »

Fox says in relation to the UK that in 'the European Union trading agreement we are already at the point where we have no tariffs and we have complete regulatory equivalence'.

If that is the case why does the UK want to change it?

If that is the case why does the UK want to blame the EU for the consequences of changing it?

(The European Union Trading agreement as he calls it, is actually the EU!) What he doesn't say is that all the regulatory bodies are EU bodies and that all would have to be set up from scratch in the UK at massive cost if the EU leaves the SM. He is using the fact that UK exporters conform to EU regulations now to mislead people into believing that the UK State has the regulatory infrastructure to manage Brexit now. The 'already at the point where we have no tariffs and we have complete regulatory equivalence' argument is only relavant for an EEA solution (Norway option).

demfad

murphaph wrote: »

If the article is true in its entirety then it shows the UK position to be as weak as most sensible people recognised all along.

They desperately need a deal on trade that goes well beyond the FTA with Canada or the UK economy will be severely damaged. Such a FTA has never been signed anywhere as far as I know. Only the EU can gift them this. Even if they can get on to talking trade (assuming the Tories don't implode when May admits the ECJ will be the arbiter on citizens' rights) I expect they'll quickly recognise that a very long transitional phase of perhaps 5 years will be required before the UK could conceivably leave the single market and customs union, giving both sides time to build customs infrastructure and to actually negotiate the details. Personally I think if they can sell ECJ jurisdiction in citizens' rights they'll try to sell it in respect to continued access to the SM and CU. I mean if you're prepared to cross your own red line then you may as well cross it with both feet and extract maximum benefit.

A long transitional phase could kill Brexit better than anything else.

A transitional phase could take as long to negotiate as the Brexit divorce. As the UK would be out of the EU before this phase started then they would have to deal with ALL non EU countries on WTO terms. They will try and copy and paste existing EU deals but this takes time and negotiators are tied up with EU.

What they really need is an extension of A50. They could do this as part of an alternate leave deal in the deal (requires majority of EU27 and EU parlaiment to pass), or best option extension of A50 (unanimous agreement EU27).
https://www.ft.com/content/29476034-abab-3b61-9d75-75dc88eb76b0

LeinsterDub

carrickbally wrote: »

There is an article in the Irish Times today about the 'hard/soft' border.

When is everyone going to accept the fact that Brexit means a hard border and any talk of it being otherwise is rubbish?

Ireland will retain the common travel area (CTA) with the UK in the first landmark agreement to be hammered out under the Brexit talks.
The impending CTA agreement, being hailed as a major victory for Ireland in the Brexit negotiations, will not include Border issues but will resolve a huge number of the Anglo-Irish concerns first raised by Brexit.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/first-big-win-of-brexit-as-common-travel-area-to-be-retained-coveney-36251191.html

Will be very interested in hearing the details of this. Mainly where will the customs border be?

steddyeddy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/first-big-win-of-brexit-as-common-travel-area-to-be-retained-coveney-36251191.html

Will be very interested in hearing the details of this. Mainly where will the customs border be?

Indeed. This wil mean someone landing in Dublin from another EU country can cross the border and freely enter the UK. How do they sqaure that with the Brexiters who voted to reduce immigration?

Sam Russell

steddyeddy wrote: »

Indeed. This wil mean someone landing in Dublin from another EU country can cross the border and freely enter the UK. How do they sqaure that with the Brexiters who voted to reduce immigration?

Simple - they introduce mandatory ID cards for all those with residency in the UK and for all UK and Irish citizens that wish to avail of the CTA.

Of course we would need to introduce a similar ID card, but we are getting there.

CrabRevolution

Sam Russell wrote: »

Simple - they introduce mandatory ID cards for all those with residency in the UK and for all UK and Irish citizens that wish to avail of the CTA.

Of course we would need to introduce a similar ID card, but we are getting there.

Wouldn't that card be useless if they weren't checking for it at the border?

murphaph

carrickbally wrote: »

There is an article in the Irish Times today about the 'hard/soft' border.

When is everyone going to accept the fact that Brexit means a hard border and any talk of it being otherwise is rubbish?

A hard Brexit means a hard border but I'm not sure a hard Brexit is still where we're heading. If May concedes on ECJ supremacy at all then the question can be legitimately asked "why not for the SM?". If the UK somehow slipped into an EEA type arrangement under the ECJ then a hard border is not a given. It's still a long way off and anything could still happen of course. The UK is in political chaos really.

blanch152

murphaph wrote: »

A hard Brexit means a hard border but I'm not sure a hard Brexit is still where we're heading. If May concedes on ECJ supremacy at all then the question can be legitimately asked "why not for the SM?". If the UK somehow slipped into an EEA type arrangement under the ECJ then a hard border is not a given. It's still a long way off and anything could still happen of course. The UK is in political chaos really.

There really are only two options, a hard Brexit and all of the fallout from that, most dramatic being the economic effect on the UK, or an EEA arrangement with the UK accepting the ECJ, SM etc. Cameron knew this, but May has been trying to pursue an impossible middle path that nobody on either side would be satisfied with.

Sam Russell

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Wouldn't that card be useless if they weren't checking for it at the border?

No, because anyone from the EU can enter the UK by Heathrow without a visa. It would only require employers and landlords to show they have checked ID from their employees or tenants. The police would also be able to check ID. There ae plenty of illegals in the UK at present, and no proper database of legal immigrants or even of British citizens.

They could start now if they want to prepare for Brexit.

Mitch Connor

blanch152 wrote: »

There really are only two options, a hard Brexit and all of the fallout from that, most dramatic being the economic effect on the UK, or an EEA arrangement with the UK accepting the ECJ, SM etc. Cameron knew this, but May has been trying to pursue an impossible middle path that nobody on either side would be satisfied with.

That middle path, that doesn't exist, is really what the leave campaigners promised to people who were to lazy, stubborn and foolish to educate themselves about.

May is trying to implement what was voted for.

The entire thing is a farce.

Shelga

I lived in England for 5+ years, voted Remain, moved home to Ireland shortly afterwards.

The collective stupidity of the British electorate is something I still think about nearly every day. The whole thing is a huge, sorry mess and it's impossible to think otherwise.

Zubeneschamali

steddyeddy wrote: »

How do they sqaure that with the Brexiters who voted to reduce immigration?

If I recall correctly, they would "control" immigration by blaming landlords and employers for failing to control immigration, not via a Schengen style border.

Mezcita

demfad wrote: »

What they really need is an extension of A50. They could do this as part of an alternate leave deal in the deal (requires majority of EU27 and EU parlaiment to pass), or best option extension of A50 (unanimous agreement EU27).
https://www.ft.com/content/29476034-abab-3b61-9d75-75dc88eb76b0

Thing is though, would the EU27 want this to be dragged out for even longer? It would essentially be doing the UK a favour despite the fact that they are the ones who don't seem to be taking their responsibilities and the inevitable outcome of a hard Brexit seriously.

Activating Article 50 early was a huge mistake as it puts a deadline on negotiations. That plays into the EU hands because while the UK team can bluster about being not being given concessions, the EU can just wait.

Zubeneschamali

Mezcita wrote: »

Thing is though, would the EU27 want this to be dragged out for even longer? It would essentially be doing the UK a favour despite the fact that they are the ones who don't seem to be taking their responsibilities and the inevitable outcome of a hard Brexit seriously.

If a coworker is out on the windowsill dancing around, telling the office that he can safely jump 5 storeys down into the carpark, I am in one sense doing him a favour by talking him out of it.

But even if he is very rude about it, I am also helping myself and the office. He would make some mess, everyone would be traumatized, and the office would probably close for a day or two.

No-one forced the UK to invoke A50 without a plan, but now that they did, it would be good for everyone to stall for time to get plans in place.

Sam Russell

Mezcita wrote: »

Thing is though, would the EU27 want this to be dragged out for even longer? It would essentially be doing the UK a favour despite the fact that they are the ones who don't seem to be taking their responsibilities and the inevitable outcome of a hard Brexit seriously.

Activating Article 50 early was a huge mistake as it puts a deadline on negotiations. That plays into the EU hands because while the UK team can bluster about being not being given concessions, the EU can just wait.

The problem faced by the Bexiteers was that they could not start any negotiations until A50 had be activated first. The EU27 were determined that there would be no negotiations of any sort before the A50 was triggered. The Brexiteers were terified that any back sliding would result in dropping of the whole project if there was any real investigations of the result of a poor outcome of the planning for leaving the EU. The fact that the UK Gov will not publish the reports that show the future of the British Economy after Brexit of any hue shows a dreadful prognosis.

An extension of A50 could only occur if the UK Gov reaches a settlement on the exit costs, the status of EU migrants, and an understanding of the Irish question and the need for no border on the island of Ireland. If they agree all of that, then an extension is likely, but otherwise ......

Mezcita

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If a coworker is out on the windowsill dancing around, telling the office that he can safely jump 5 storeys down into the carpark, I am in one sense doing him a favour by talking him out of it.

But even if he is very rude about it, I am also helping myself and the office. He would make some mess, everyone would be traumatized, and the office would probably close for a day or two.

No-one forced the UK to invoke A50 without a plan, but now that they did, it would be good for everyone to stall for time to get plans in place.

This isn't a suicide attempt though. It's a negotiation where the UK clearly thinks they are in a position to make demands from the side which has the better bargaining position. That's a situation which has not changed (on both sides) ever since A50 was activated. Therefore another two years of messing about seems kind of pointless to me.

The deadline here forces the UK to take this decision (and the inevitable catastrophe) seriously. To me extending it just kicks the can down the road.

carrickbally

Sam Russell wrote: »

An extension of A50 could only occur if the UK Gov reaches a settlement on the exit costs, the status of EU migrants, and an understanding of the Irish question and the need for no border on the island of Ireland. If they agree all of that, then an extension is likely, but otherwise ......

What is the point of Brexit at all if it is better to leave things more or less as they are?

Why was that not explained by Johnson?

Sorry do not answer that.

flatty

Mezcita wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If a coworker is out on the windowsill dancing around, telling the office that he can safely jump 5 storeys down into the carpark, I am in one sense doing him a favour by talking him out of it.

But even if he is very rude about it, I am also helping myself and the office. He would make some mess, everyone would be traumatized, and the office would probably close for a day or two.

No-one forced the UK to invoke A50 without a plan, but now that they did, it would be good for everyone to stall for time to get plans in place.

This isn't a suicide attempt though. It's a negotiation where the UK clearly thinks they are in a position to make demands from the side which has the better bargaining position. That's a situation which has not changed (on both sides) ever since A50 was activated. Therefore another two years of messing about seems kind of pointless to me.

The deadline here forces the UK to take this decision (and the inevitable catastrophe) seriously. To me extending it just kicks the can down the road.

It does, but for once it'd be no bad thing. Might give an opportunity for a more honest debate and a rowback by the younger generation.
I'd also remind folk that 48% of people voted against this xenophobic madness, despite the lies, downright lies and spin.

The Rape of Lucretia

steddyeddy wrote: »

Indeed. This wil mean someone landing in Dublin from another EU country can cross the border and freely enter the UK. How do they sqaure that with the Brexiters who voted to reduce immigration?

Yes, freely into the NI part of the UK. But can go no further. Hard to see much interest from migrants to go to a depressed part of the UK, and people on the mainland will probably accept that whatever few are there, are safely contained there.

carrickbally

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Yes, freely into the NI part of the UK. But can go no further. Hard to see much interest from migrants to go to a depressed part of the UK, and people on the mainland will probably accept that whatever few are there, are safely contained there.

Of course he can go further.

He is supposed to be in the UK and according to Brexit outside the EU remember.

The Rape of Lucretia

carrickbally wrote: »

Of course he can go further.

He is supposed to be in the UK and according to Brexit outside the EU remember.

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

Enzokk

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

What is the DUP thoughts on this? Remember we have just read that the CTA will continue and there will not be a border on the island of Ireland, yet we know that the UK wants to control immigration and make their own trade deals. So once again how do you square that circle?

Here is the DUP thoughts on a sea border

Sam Russell

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

Now that is the core of the problem.

Are the UK Border Force going to demand a Passport from a NI Unionist to enter GB from Belfast? It would be impossible for the DUP to accept this (especially as the hold the balance in the Parliament and some very strange views).

The only concept I can see is a national ID card for the whole of the UK.

The Rape of Lucretia

Enzokk wrote: »

What is the DUP thoughts on this? Remember we have just read that the CTA will continue and there will not be a border on the island of Ireland, yet we know that the UK wants to control immigration and make their own trade deals. So once again how do you square that circle?

As Ive said, free unhindered travel in the island of Ireland - which covers the vaste majority of NI visits abroad anyway.
And a border control to get onto the island of Great Britain. With a fast track passport channel for NI and Eire citizens. Maybe even a faster-track style one for unionsits bypassing the standard one, like the ones for Communist party officials in China which are faster than the ones for even Chinese citizens.

Enzokk

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

As Ive said, free unhindered travel in the island of Ireland - which covers the vaste majority of NI visits abroad anyway.
And a border control to get onto the island of Great Britain. With a fast track passport channel for NI and Eire citizens. Maybe even a faster-track style one for unionsits bypassing the standard one, like the ones for Communist party officials in China which are faster than the ones for even Chinese citizens.

Yes, but that isn't the CTA. There is no passport control between Ireland and the UK at present, as with NI and the rest of the UK. You cannot continue an arrangement by changing the said arrangement. That is not continuing it.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, have NI in the EU but we have already seen statements from the DUP that will be against it. If this was any other government this could be achieved, but a minority that relies on the DUP for their votes makes this a non-starter. So the deal to keep Theresa May in power will be the deal that could complicate Brexit even more.

The Rape of Lucretia

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, but that isn't the CTA. There is no passport control between Ireland and the UK at present, as with NI and the rest of the UK. You cannot continue an arrangement by changing the said arrangement. That is not continuing it.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, have NI in the EU but we have already seen statements from the DUP that will be against it. If this was any other government this could be achieved, but a minority that relies on the DUP for their votes makes this a non-starter. So the deal to keep Theresa May in power will be the deal that could complicate Brexit even more.

She wont need their votes when it comes to the crunch though - Labour will support the deal when the internal UK border comes out in the last desperate late nights of negotiation, and her govt will be a spent force after that anyway with an election to happen whether the DUP pull the plug or not.

It will be a creative, imaginative, and frictionless CTA for citizens of NI and Eire.

carrickbally

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

She wont need their votes when it comes to the crunch though - Labour will support the deal when the internal UK border comes out in the last desperate late nights of negotiation, and her govt will be a spent force after that anyway with an election to happen whether the DUP pull the plug or not.

It will be a creative, imaginative, and frictionless CTA for citizens of NI and Eire.

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

Nody

Normally I'd take this as the final nail for a hard brexit; then I realised it's stated by May so got no value what so ever as a statement of what will happen (as a side note a FTA would take years to complete starting with a 6 month study to see what both parties may be interested in which creates a preliminary report after 6 months minimum, then final report, negotiation on terms etc.).

Theresa May has warned she will reject a transition to cushion Brexit if she has failed to also strike a long-term trade agreement with the EU – raising the chances of a “no deal” exit.

Really Interested

carrickbally wrote: »

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

LeinsterDub

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

The Rape of Lucretia

Shelga wrote: »

I lived in England for 5+ years, voted Remain, moved home to Ireland shortly afterwards.

The collective stupidity of the British electorate is something I still think about nearly every day. The whole thing is a huge, sorry mess and it's impossible to think otherwise.

It is understandably too painful for most of the British to clearly see it, even with all the debate and internal arguing, but the magnitude of this democratic fail, from what seemed to have been a modern educated country, is truly staggering.

The Rape of Lucretia

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

No. He is legally in the UK alright. But only in the CTA area that NI is in. He would not get into Great Britain though.

Professor Moriarty

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

They could apply for refugee status.

murphaph

The CTA has nothing to do with a customs border. It is trivial in comparison. The EU don't care as Ireland is outside Schengen anyway. Now customs and standards are another matter entirely.

Really Interested

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Sand

flatty wrote: »

It does, but for once it'd be no bad thing. Might give an opportunity for a more honest debate and a rowback by the younger generation.
I'd also remind folk that 48% of people voted against this xenophobic madness, despite the lies, downright lies and spin.

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

Professor Moriarty

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

That's all very well but we suffer the hits to Ireland's economy, the GFA and to Irish people living in the UK.

LeinsterDub

Really Interested wrote: »

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Our current visa agreements are more or less in agreement. If the UK decides to abandon this common policy. This will also kill the CTA

carrickbally

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

I think that is too optimistic.

Tearing up an agreement signed with nearly thirty other European democracies to cooperate in matters of mutual interest is very final and will have dire consequences for both the UK and the EU.

Tearing up the Good Friday Agreement signed with this country will also have extra dire consequences for this country.

English racism is in this generation going to have similar consequences as German racism had in the thirties.

The London media spent decades of racist, anti-EU propaganda getting to this situation.

It is not going to stop now.

I hope I am wrong but I am very pessimistic.

steddyeddy

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

I agree 100%. The only thing that will convince the UK of the perils of Brexit is Brexit itself.

Best scenario involves a hard Brexit, a substantial economic blow to the UK, a regaining of sense and application to rejoin the EU. They won't keep the pound in rejoining, but they'll hopefully learn their lesson.

Sand

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's all very well but we suffer the hits to Ireland's economy, the GFA and to Irish people living in the UK.

Agreed, but we cant compel the UK to see reason. There is no point giving the UK more time. May is getting weaker, not stronger. She will not be able to face down the Brexit lunatic fringe and the Daily Mail. There is no reason to believe the British political and media classes are going to get braver, smarter or more honest by waiting an extra 6 or 12 or 24 months. Brexit is going to happen, and the British insist it be the hardest possible Brexit.

In the long term, its better for Ireland and the EU as a whole that the UK lance the boil now.

oppenheimer1

Sand wrote: »

Agreed, but we cant compel the UK to see reason. There is no point giving the UK more time. May is getting weaker, not stronger. She will not be able to face down the Brexit lunatic fringe and the Daily Mail. There is no reason to believe the British political and media classes are going to get braver, smarter or more honest by waiting an extra 6 or 12 or 24 months. Brexit is going to happen, and the British insist it be the hardest possible Brexit.

In the long term, its better for Ireland and the EU as a whole that the UK lance the boil now.

Time has not run out just yet. For Brexit to collapse you will need a couple of catastrophic business failures/factory closures directly attributed to Brexit.

The problem is of course that by the time these consequences are being felt, the UK will be hurtling fast towards the cliff with no way of stopping.

Akrasia

Given the timeframe, fatalism is more than justified.

The UK will crash out of Europe. There will be consequences that could be far reaching. Hopefully after a few years of turmoil they will align themselves with enlightenment europe, but that is far from guaranteed.

oppenheimer1

Sam Russell wrote: »

Now that is the core of the problem.

Are the UK Border Force going to demand a Passport from a NI Unionist to enter GB from Belfast? It would be impossible for the DUP to accept this (especially as the hold the balance in the Parliament and some very strange views).

The only concept I can see is a national ID card for the whole of the UK.

It's not people that are the problem, it's taxation of goods and services.

People can still be covered by the CTA and illegal immigration to the UK can be enforced (as it is today for non-EU countries) by workplace and accommodation checks.

The real problem is figuring out how to maintain the integrity of the single market and customs union with NI on the outside. Even with the border on the Irish sea, the UK mainland is just 21miles away, short enough to do in a RIB, so smuggling will be rife.

There are no easy answers to this dilemma apart from the UK staying in the customs union and single market. This is not an option for the UK as it would be an total humiliation for the UK govt, pay for play with no say.

demfad

Sand wrote: »

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

Democracy dies in the dark, as they say.....

demfad

OK. There has being some goings on the Brexit-Russia-UKIP side of things.
Buzzfeed had an article relating to a study about a 13,000 strong twitter botnet active during EU referendum but deleted very shortly after.
They reported that Damien Collins, Commons chair of 'Fake news' inquiry asked twitter about these bots: was there interference? Who deleted? Did twitter delete? etc.

Leave.EU already admitted they ran the Bots

https://twitter.com/andywigmore/status/902941548610035712

Questions Guardians Carole Cadwalladr tweeted as a result, Questions deserving answers:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/922174663366729736

breatheme

Really Interested wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Those people can usually also enter Ireland. But imagine this: EU-Citizen X is deported from the UK post-Brexit for whatever reason. All this person has to do is enter through Ireland to get back. So much for taking back control. Also, I want to know, since no one has even brought this up, will EU citizens still be able to enter the UK on just their ID card? This would also be a wildly differing policy.

blanch152

carrickbally wrote: »

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

That is the UK's problem.

What happens when an Australian enters the UK without a visa, takes the ferry to Dublin and then to France to go looking for a job? The EU won't like that and we will be told to protect our borders.

breatheme

breatheme wrote: »

will EU citizens still be able to enter the UK on just their ID card? This would also be a wildly differing policy.

they never could.

breatheme

What do you mean they never could? Of course they can.
EDIT: Proof.