Brexit discussion thread II

First Up

Nody wrote:

Sorry but I have to agree with Solo here; I don't see any realistic scenario where UK will go back on Brexit or rejoining in the short term. If the Lib Dems had made a huge swing there might have been a possibility but between Tories and Labour not a chance in hell.

I never said there was a realistic scenario. I said that the scenario that could bring it about is very hard to envisage.

Zubeneschamali

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

Does anyone think it’ll lead to an Irish referendum to leave?

Not in a million billion years.

First Up

Nody wrote:

Not really because what you'd need would be a new GE because Tories will never decide to abandon Brexit (and it happens automatically so need active decision by government to change foot) and then somehow have Corbyn to change opinion and heal the Labour party to one view on EU and get enough votes to turn things around. In short; not happening.

You are assuming that the Tories and Labour can operate under the whip on the whole issue, whereas both parties are torn down the middle and neither leader is secure.

The only scenario in which Brexit could be re-visited is one where both parties split and new alignments are formed, either tactically over Brexit, or on a more formal basis - i.e a new centre/pro EU party.

I don't see any way that parliament as currently constituted could do a Brexit u-turn but I do see the imminent chaos from Brexit putting a serious strain on the existing norms.

But where that goes is anyone's guess.

ancapailldorcha

It looks like Simon Stevens has finally weighed in regarding Vote Leave's lie about the NHS:

BBC News wrote:

The health service should get the cash boost it was promised during the EU referendum, the head of the NHS in England is expected to say later.

Simon Stevens will use controversial claims used by Vote Leave to put the case for more money in a speech later.

With waiting times worsening, he will say trust in politics will be damaged if the NHS does not get more.

During the referendum it was claimed £350m a week was sent to the EU and that would be better spent on the NHS.

The claim was widely contested at the time and ever since - it did not take into account the rebate the UK had nor the fact the UK benefited from investment from the EU.

Source.

ambro25

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

Does anyone think it’ll lead to an Irish referendum to leave?

I don't believe that you're even going to hear of an "EU membership referendum" anywhere in the EU27 for years. And longer.

No need of any hard (or even actual) Brexit: the UK car crash of the past year is all the evidence, which 99.9% of even semi-sensible politicians the length and breadth of the EU27 need for that one (bar the odd few populist ones à la Farage who still survive to this day...unlike e.g. the LePens).

demfad

ambro25 wrote: »

I don't believe that you're even going to hear of an "EU membership referendum" anywhere in the EU27 for years. And longer.

No need of any hard (or even actual) Brexit: the UK car crash of the past year is all the evidence, which 99.9% of even semi-sensible politicians the length and breadth of the EU27 need for that one (bar the odd few populist ones à la Farage who still survive to this day...unlike e.g. the LePens).

Some of the people behind Brexit want nothing other than a maximum chaotic exit. The goal is effectively to use the shock waves from a UK economic implosion to cause massive collatoral damage to the EU with the ideal result of collapsing some of its economies.

THe EU had a few existential crises recently. If they are hurt by a chaotic Brexit they might return: and this time the US administration is defacto a hostile entity.

First Up

demfad wrote:

Some of the people behind Brexit want nothing other than a maximum chaotic exit.

Are you talking about UK Brexiteers or external influences? I agree that the typical Brexiteer wishes to undermine the European project but I think they expect the UK to escape into the warm embrace of the US and other former colonies. Daft of course but I don't think they intend to sacrifice the UK's economy.

ancapailldorcha

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

Does anyone think it’ll lead to an Irish referendum to leave?

Simply put, no. There are a few reasons. Firstly, Ireland never had a history as a global, seafaring, free trading nation. For much of our recent history, Ireland was a British territory. There is no glorious past to invoke basically. Secondly, most Irish people are well aware of the benefits the EU has brought to Ireland. There are signs with the EU flag on a lot of the new roads in the country and then there are the multinationals availing of Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax rate and full access to the European market. Finally, the far right hasn't found fertile ground in Ireland. The population is mostly native Irish so there aren't waves of migrants to blame for every little problem with the country. Irish people seem to be more left-leaning in general which conflicts with the far-right's small government philosophy.

ArmaniJeanss

Looks like arch Brexiteer Priti Patel won't be in the cabinet much longer, being called home for a sacking according to the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/08/priti-patels-meetings-cancelled-as-pm-considers-sacking-her

Probably doesn't matter too much to the runaway Brexit train at this stage unfortunately.

Though if TMPM keeps losing Cabinet ministers at the recent rate then one wonders how long before the next rumblings of a heave.

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Looks like arch Brexiteer Priti Patel won't be in the cabinet much longer, being called home for a sacking according to the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/08/priti-patels-meetings-cancelled-as-pm-considers-sacking-her

Probably doesn't matter too much to the runaway Brexit train at this stage unfortunately.

Though if TMPM keeps losing Cabinet ministers at the recent rate then one wonders how long before the next rumblings of a heave.

Boris is also in serious trouble. How serious will depend on an Iranian court which is due to pass sentence in the next few days on a British-Iranian woman accused of spreading anti-government propaganda . It is very possible that her sentence may be increased and that the judge will have taken Johnson's inaccurate remarks into consideration.

flatty

This is it. Teresa may may be in serious trouble also. It seems they have been somewhat economical with the truth.
If there as anyone still wanting the steering wheel (which, other than hard brexiter I doubt), they have been handed an excuse to move.

LeinsterDub

Sam Russell wrote: »

They could then go to the EU27 and ask for a five year extension to A50. A few years into that term, ask for a EU-lite but (nod-wink) really mean full EU membership, with some kind of sweetener.

They've had enough sweeteners . If they want to retract A50 the rebate should be gone and the Euro should be also committed too.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Simply put, no. There are a few reasons. Firstly, Ireland never had a history as a global, seafaring, free trading nation. For much of our recent history, Ireland was a British territory. There is no glorious past to invoke basically. Secondly, most Irish people are well aware of the benefits the EU has brought to Ireland. There are signs with the EU flag on a lot of the new roads in the country and then there are the multinationals availing of Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax rate and full access to the European market. Finally, the far right hasn't found fertile ground in Ireland. The population is mostly native Irish so there aren't waves of migrants to blame for every little problem with the country. Irish people seem to be more left-leaning in general which conflicts with the far-right's small government philosophy.

The average Irish person seems far better-educated than their UK counterpart, at least in my experience and perception.

Were this proven to be a fact (rather than my experience-based surmising), then I'd expect it to play a significant part in the above state of affairs

FWIW, I hold the state of national education (ho-hum) in the UK as one of the core causes of social media-related gullibility ('mass cretinisation') and the Leave vote.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

The average Irish person seems far better-educated than their UK counterpart, at least in my experience and perception.

In any particular respect?

ambro25 wrote: »

FWIW, I hold the state of national education (ho-hum) in the UK as one of the core causes of social media-related gullibility ('mass cretinisation') and the Leave vote.

You might know more than me if you have children. It's not a thought that ever crossed my mind. It would be interesting to note that, if I were to accept your premise then the countries which chose Trump and Brexit have poorer education systems though given that your homeland nearly opted for Ms. LePen so I don't know how good the French equivalent is either.

steddyeddy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Indeed.

Just read this. Full tariffs on agri products from NI on top of the farmers loosing their grants. They've been thrown under a bus.

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

your homeland nearly opted for Ms. LePen

No, before the French election there was lots of Trump/Brexit and now LePen! stuff in the media, but in the event it wasn't even close. 2:1 for Macron in the run-off.

ancapailldorcha

steddyeddy wrote: »

Just read this. Full tariffs on agri products from NI on top of the farmers loosing their grants. They've been thrown under a bus.

That's Jonathan Lis. Here's a full list of the tweets:

https://tttthreads.com/thread/927551446186450944

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Simply put, no. There are a few reasons. Firstly, Ireland never had a history as a global, seafaring, free trading nation. For much of our recent history, Ireland was a British territory. There is no glorious past to invoke basically. Secondly, most Irish people are well aware of the benefits the EU has brought to Ireland. There are signs with the EU flag on a lot of the new roads in the country and then there are the multinationals availing of Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax rate and full access to the European market. Finally, the far right hasn't found fertile ground in Ireland. The population is mostly native Irish so there aren't waves of migrants to blame for every little problem with the country. Irish people seem to be more left-leaning in general which conflicts with the far-right's small government philosophy.

Hilariously we have a higher foreign-born population than the UK, having reached that point from a tiny proportion just a couple of decades ago.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Hilariously we have a higher foreign-born population than the UK, having reached that point from a tiny proportion just a couple of decades ago.

There are more Polish people than Kerry people in Ireland. But Kerry have much more All-Irelands.

View

Deleted User wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Simply put, no. There are a few reasons. Firstly, Ireland never had a history as a global, seafaring, free trading nation. For much of our recent history, Ireland was a British territory. There is no glorious past to invoke basically. Secondly, most Irish people are well aware of the benefits the EU has brought to Ireland. There are signs with the EU flag on a lot of the new roads in the country and then there are the multinationals availing of Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax rate and full access to the European market. Finally, the far right hasn't found fertile ground in Ireland. The population is mostly native Irish so there aren't waves of migrants to blame for every little problem with the country. Irish people seem to be more left-leaning in general which conflicts with the far-right's small government philosophy.

Hilariously we have a higher foreign-born population than the UK, having reached that point from a tiny proportion just a couple of decades ago.

We have a higher number in percentage terms. We don’t have a higher number in absolute terms though.

View

View wrote: »

We have a higher number in percentage terms. We don’t have a higher number in absolute terms though.

Obviously. There aren't many things that country A will have more of than country B when B has about 14 times the population.

A Dub in Glasgo

View wrote: »

We have a higher number in percentage terms. We don’t have a higher number in absolute terms though.

It would almost be impossible to have a higher number in absolute terms considering the size :pac:

Panrich

Deleted User wrote: »

Obviously. There aren't many things that country A will have more of than country B when B has about 14 times the population.

More common sense not to leave the EU?

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

Hilariously we have a higher foreign-born population than the UK, having reached that point from a tiny proportion just a couple of decades ago.

In any case, the % foreign-born population matters less in absolute terms than the degree of education and skills brought to the country by said migrants - fairly sure a study said migrants in the UK contributed more in taxes than their cost to the exchequer, so Ireland should be similar?

http://www.thejournal.ie/immigrants-ireland-education-qualification-new-2199098-Jul2015/

View

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

View wrote: »

We have a higher number in percentage terms. We don’t have a higher number in absolute terms though.

It would almost be impossible to have a higher number in absolute terms considering the size :pac:

Not at all.

Were we to copy the U.K. numbers in absolute terms:
a) It would mean we’d have circa 3 million (non-Irish) EU citizens here were we to confine ourselves to EU citizens, meaning the population of the state would be comparable to that of pre-famine Ireland.
b) were we to include the circa 5.3(?)
million non-EU citizens as well, it’d mean the population of the state would probably be less than that of what it would have been had we had continued population growth from the mid 19th Century on (ie were there no famine and no post-famine mass emigration culture).

Both figure would be perfectly possible given that modern Ireland is an urban based society unlike the agriculturally based mid 19th century Ireland.

In neither of those cases would be particularly “crowded” since the first would put our population density (population / sq km) at roughly the average for the EU and the second would put us a fair bit above it but still well below the more densely populated EU countries.

Panrich

Panrich wrote: »

More common sense not to leave the EU?

Over 16 million in the UK voted to remain, I have an inkling not that many would vote to remain if we had a vote in Ireland tomorrow. Though I'm not a statistician.

View

View wrote: »

Not at all.

Were we to copy the U.K. numbers in absolute terms:
a) It would mean we’d have circa 3 million (non-Irish) EU citizens here were we to confine ourselves to EU citizens, meaning the population of the state would be comparable to that of pre-famine Ireland.
b) were we to include the circa 5.3(?)
million non-EU citizens as well, it’d mean the population of the state would probably be less than that of what it would have been had we had continued population growth from the mid 19th Century on (ie were there no famine and no post-famine mass emigration culture).

Both figure would be perfectly possible given that modern Ireland is an urban based society unlike the agriculturally based mid 19th century Ireland.

In neither of those cases would be particularly “crowded” since the first would put our population density (population / sq km) at roughly the average for the EU and the second would put us a fair bit above it but still well below the more densely populated EU countries.

Size of population, not area.

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's Jonathan Lis. Here's a full list of the tweets:

https://tttthreads.com/thread/927551446186450944

Thanks A. Is he a trusted source?

LaChatteGitane

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Simply put, no. There are a few reasons. Firstly, Ireland never had a history as a global, seafaring, free trading nation. For much of our recent history, Ireland was a British territory. There is no glorious past to invoke basically. Secondly, most Irish people are well aware of the benefits the EU has brought to Ireland. There are signs with the EU flag on a lot of the new roads in the country and then there are the multinationals availing of Ireland's 12.5% corporation tax rate and full access to the European market. Finally, the far right hasn't found fertile ground in Ireland. The population is mostly native Irish so there aren't waves of migrants to blame for every little problem with the country. Irish people seem to be more left-leaning in general which conflicts with the far-right's small government philosophy.

You would think that by reading this thread. However when reading comments underneath newspaper articles (also on facebook) I get a different impression.
Also, quite a lot of my acquaintances are left leaning blow-ins (like myself) and they have nothing positive to say about the EU and would love it if Ireland left too. Ironic, seeing they are European nationals and would soon find themselves having to return to their own patch.
I have a distinct feeling that most of them don't have any idea how the EU works, but they know 'it's not democratic'.
Someone (English person living here) asked me after the UK referendum results, 'what do the Belgians think now, eh ?'(I am Belgian, you see). After asking what she meant, she said, ' well, it's the EU, isn't it. Belgium is the EU, you know, Brussels' :eek:
Flabbergasted.

Calina

ambro25 wrote: »

The average Irish person seems far better-educated than their UK counterpart, at least in my experience and perception.

Were this proven to be a fact (rather than my experience-based surmising), then I'd expect it to play a significant part in the above state of affairs

FWIW, I hold the state of national education (ho-hum) in the UK as one of the core causes of social media-related gullibility ('mass cretinisation') and the Leave vote.

Interestingly enough, I don't fully agree with you on this. Typically, the younger generation in the UK voted in favour of remain compared to the generation or two above them.

But there's an interesting feature which aligns with your thoughts and it's this: historically, a lot of people in the UK were able to be economically independent from the age of 15 or 16. From 1980s to 1993-4, the staying on in school rate for 16 year olds went from 42% to 74% and for 17 year olds it went from 27% to 58 %. The comparative figures for Ireland are way up in the 90s I think. So I think there's an element not so much of the education itself, but the numbers who do not fully complete second level education. Per the Guardian here, the figures suggest that 84% of 17 year olds stay in school and only 63% of 18 year olds do. Culturally, a lot of people in the UK do not necessarily continue schooling past 16 and while there are certain routes they must follow, some of those have only been in place in the recent past. I think the issue may not be the schooling per se, but the numbers who have historically left full time education at the age of 16 and not completed the senior cycle of the school system.

This is not to say that the UK education system is perfect. It's not the core subject of this thread, but there are questions about their testing set up; the fact that the private and state schools do not necessarily align in terms of syllabus; there are question marks over funding and social division between the state and private sectors. But what it does point to is a large cohort of people who are less educated because they left school early and perhaps they might have benefitted from an educational point of view if they had completed A or AS levels for example. It's not a solely a question of what is taught; it's the not staying on to the end, I think.

But yeah, the average Irish person has tended to complete second level education although for a number of years our figures didn't look fantastic because we did the end of senior cycle at the age of 17 on average. That changed sometime in the last 20 years though and more often that, LC students are closer to 18 now. Against that, a significantly number of British people completed part of the second level cycle up to 15 or 16 and even now, a lower proportion remain in school until 17 or 18 that in some other countries.

Aristotle145

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is that all? Peanuts. They should be spending a lot more on humanitarian grounds. Tax a few Tory party donors properly.

Is that all,if Ireland done that they would be bankrupt by now,you shouldnt become a banker,just some advice.

Aristotle145

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

FFS, spending 0.046% of UK government spending on housing and feeding asylum seekers is causing the finest example of self harm by a country in decades!!!! Go back to the Express and Mail sites

Ireland is giving this pocket money too i take it,genius?

Calina

LaChatteGitane wrote: »

You would think that by reading this thread. However when reading comments underneath newspaper articles (also on facebook) I get a different impression.
Also, quite a lot of my acquaintances are left leaning blow-ins (like myself) and they have nothing positive to say about the EU and would love it if Ireland left too. Ironic, seeing they are European nationals and would soon find themselves having to return to their own patch.
I have a distinct feeling that most of them don't have any idea how the EU works, but they know 'it's not democratic'.
Someone (English person living here) asked me after the UK referendum results, 'what do the Belgians think now, eh ?'(I am Belgian, you see). After asking what she meant, she said, ' well, it's the EU, isn't it. Belgium is the EU, you know, Brussels' :eek:
Flabbergasted.

One of the things that this whole event has brought home to me is the fact that so many people seem to see the EU as somehow separate to the member states of the EU. In particular I find it difficult to understand because I learned this stuff in primary school geography.

ancapailldorcha

Aristotle145 wrote: »

Is that all,if Ireland done that they would be bankrupt by now,you shouldnt become a banker,just some advice.

Aristotle145 wrote: »

Ireland is giving this pocket money too i take it,genius?

This manner of posting is unacceptable here. Please read the charter before posting again.

Calina

ambro25 wrote: »

The problem Calina, is that going by noises coming from our profession in the UK, even those "people who know" seem to have bought into the "it'll be grand" approach (or are simply reaching advanced stages of denial in the face of continuing -and arguable worsening- uncertainty), as there is talk of maintaining UK professionals already on the EU register post-Brexit (borne from 'the EU office needs us to stay on there, as much as we need to keep representation rights' type of thinking - seriously). It's nonsensical as the following explains, which is all the more puzzling and maddening (borderline despairing) for it to come from the profession...

Also wanted to say thanks for this in-depth reply last night. I think sometimes stuff like this needs to be spelled out because otherwise, it seems that yerrah it'll be grand will be running face first into a cliff face.

LaChatteGitane

Calina wrote: »

One of the things that this whole event has brought home to me is the fact that so many people seem to see the EU as somehow separate to the member states of the EU. In particular I find it difficult to understand because I learned this stuff in primary school geography.

Indeed ! We are the EU, together with all other member states.

ancapailldorcha

steddyeddy wrote: »

Thanks A. Is he a trusted source?

No bother. I can't say. He works for British Influence, a think tank which seems to be opposed to a no-deal Brexit. He seems legit as far as I can tell though I only just heard of him!

Capt'n Midnight

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

How? It'll only make the division even more stark. A fully hard land based border will be required to control agricultural imports into the EU, the reality of this is becoming more and more stark.

I, for one, don't see a united Ireland remotely appealing in any way as a "get around" for the above.

The border is soft. It doesn't interfere with everyday life. So it's not a big deal.

If it went back to the pillboxes , concrete chicanes, cameras and intercoms then it's a very different story, major hassle.

And the grass would start to look greener on the other side, especially if we agreed to ringfence the existing DLA / welfare / housing / healthcare and other benefits.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In any particular respect?

Nope, and -timely- here is an illustration of the general principle:

LaChatteGitane wrote: »

<...>
Someone (English person living here) asked me after the UK referendum results, 'what do the Belgians think now, eh ?'(I am Belgian, you see). After asking what she meant, she said, ' well, it's the EU, isn't it. Belgium is the EU, you know, Brussels' :eek:
Flabbergasted.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You might know more than me if you have children. It's not a thought that ever crossed my mind. It would be interesting to note that, if I were to accept your premise then the countries which chose Trump and Brexit have poorer education systems though given that your homeland nearly opted for Ms. LePen so I don't know how good the French equivalent is either.

I'd go along with that premise of your own.

As for Marine Le Pen, she was the standard 'Le Pen' protest vote at the first round (nothing we haven't see before: see Le Pen Sr vs Chirac, 2002), and somewhat amplified this time by the anti-EU sentiment of the day stoked on social media.

But there never was any chance of her winning, and I posted as much, well before the election (December 2016), in the relevant thread back in the day.

ambro25

Calina wrote: »

Interestingly enough, I don't fully agree with you on this. Typically, the younger generation in the UK voted in favour of remain compared to the generation or two above them.

<snip>

Thanks for the challenge and insight, Calina, and I actually agree with your point about the comparative lengths of education; though I feel as though I should somehow put more bones (or at least, context) to my earlier post.

I do not have much personal insight in either Irish and UK systems (I was schooled in France), but we have a daughter who started schooling a year "early" (compared to the UK syllabus) at the LFI in Dublin, then has done all her schooling the UK (state) system (Yr 9 now).

So my frames of reference are Irish people I interacted with professionally and socially and 'generally' whilst we lived in Dublin (mid-00s); British people I interacted with professionally and socially and 'generally' whilst we lived in the UK (pre-Dublin) and now still (after moving back to UK, late 00s) ; and my daughter's ongoing schooling (about which we have always taken a high and close interest), relative to mine BITD (France, 80s - hasn't changed much, acc. to sister in law who is a full-time secondary teacher).

And the thing I've lamented the most about my daughter's schooling, is the lack of encouragement to query, question, test, investigate <...> i.e. to think for themselves; coupled with the modern namby-pambism of 'everyone has to be a winner' (hence liberal use of graphs, pie charts, letters and neutral buzzwords in school reports, rather than a class grade worked out of averaged examination marks over a term). And don't get me started about maths, I've had shouting matches with some of her teachers (I should know better...but well).

I feel as if there is no fostering of curiosity, nor of personal ambition in the UK cursus: kid are not taught to question, they're taught to seek answers to others' questions; and kids are not taught failure and how to manage it (encouraging academic drive/ambition), they're taught that nobody really loses. And within that context, the educational content itself, is actually pretty poor.

/off-topic.

flatty

ambro25 wrote: »

Thanks for the challenge and insight, Calina, and I actually agree with your point about the comparative lengths of education; though I feel as though I should somehow put more bones (or at least, context) to my earlier post.

I do not have much personal insight in either Irish and UK systems (I was schooled in France), but we have a daughter who started schooling a year "early" (compared to the UK syllabus) at the LFI in Dublin, then has done all her schooling the UK (state) system (Yr 9 now).

So my frames of reference are Irish people I interacted with professionally and socially and 'generally' whilst we lived in Dublin (mid-00s); British people I interacted with professionally and socially and 'generally' whilst we lived in the UK (pre-Dublin) and now still (after moving back to UK, late 00s) ; and my daughter's ongoing schooling (about which we have always taken a high and close interest), relative to mine BITD (France, 80s - hasn't changed much, acc. to sister in law who is a full-time secondary teacher).

And the thing I've lamented the most about my daughter's schooling, is the lack of encouragement to query, question, test, investigate <...> i.e. to think for themselves; coupled with the modern namby-pambism of 'everyone has to be a winner' (hence liberal use of graphs, pie charts, letters and neutral buzzwords in school reports, rather than a class grade worked out of averaged examination marks over a term). And don't get me started about maths, I've had shouting matches with some of her teachers (I should know better...but well).

I feel as if there is no fostering of curiosity, nor of personal ambition in the UK cursus: kid are not taught to question, they're taught to seek answers to others' questions; and kids are not taught failure and how to manage it (encouraging academic drive/ambition), they're taught that nobody really loses. And within that context, the educational content itself, is actually pretty poor.

/off-topic.

How did you form the judgement that people outside London were rarely capable of independent thought?
I'm interested, as other major urban centres voted to remain.

ambro25

flatty wrote: »

How did you form the judgement that people outside London were rarely capable of independent thought?
I'm interested, as other major urban centres voted to remain.

I think you're interpreting, here, flatty. I don't believe that I said that.

solodeogloria

flatty wrote: »

How did you form the judgement that people outside London were rarely capable of independent thought?
I'm interested, as other major urban centres voted to remain.

ambro25 wrote: »

I think you're interpreting, here, flatty. I don't believe that I said that.

Good morning!

I'd propose that people irrespective of whether they voted to remain or leave had their reasons. This spurious speculation about whether Britain's education system is the cause for Brexit is just arrogant willy waving and borderline Anglophobia again.

We should aim for better.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I'd propose that people irrespective of whether they voted to remain or leave had their reasons. This spurious speculation about whether Britain's education system is the cause for Brexit is just arrogant willy waving and borderline Anglophobia again.

We should aim for better.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

There's no harm in analysing why a nation has voted to commit severe economic self harm if we want to make sure the same doesn't happen to us.

Is it really Anglophobia to do this?

I also note that your posts are less and less focused on real Brexit issues and more sniping at the edges these days. The fantasy of a successful Brexit is clearly fading.

The whole thing is getting urgent now. There will be no progress to trade in December and the next opportunity to agree on that is the next leader's summit in MARCH!

That's a year after A50 was triggered and just 6 months before the deal needs to be done to allow the 27 and the EP time to ratify. To me it's looking like the UK will have to ask for an extension but they need to ask soon because business will kick their contingency plans into high gear in the new year if no progress is made.

Nody

murphaph wrote: »

That's a year after A50 was triggered and just 6 months before the deal needs to be done to allow the 27 and the EP time to ratify. To me it's looking like the UK will have to ask for an extension but they need to ask soon because business will kick their contingency plans into high gear in the new year if no progress is made.

They did ask for the 2 month transition period (which is an extension) but that and any extension would be dependent on the progress (or lack there of) made. Now with May supposedly on borrowed time and her replacement likely being a harder Brexiteer makes that even less likely to happen though.

steddyeddy

The EU parliament and Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt says Britain's new offer on citizen's rights is inadequate. Do we think that trade talks will commence in December?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-eu-citizens-rights-inadequate-european-parliament-britain-a8044331.html

ECO_Mental

Nody wrote: »

and her replacement likely being a harder Brexiteer makes that even less likely to happen though.

Boris's turn I think:P hopefully he'll get it. He has being getting a free ride up until now with no accountability for his shameless jump on the bandwagon good for my profile stance (sure brexit will it will never happen) and I can hurl for the ditches afterwards. Time to put-up or shut up Boris :mad: see how great you are....

First Up

Nody wrote:

They did ask for the 2 month transition period (which is an extension) but that and any extension would be dependent on the progress (or lack there of) made. Now with

An extension and a transition are not the same.

An extension allows more time to negotiate the terms that will apply after the UK's departure.

A transition is the period between the UK's membership and its post membership status - i.e a gradual move from one to the other.

You can have an extension to negotiate but you can't start a transition until you know what you are transitioning to.

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

There's no harm in analysing why a nation has voted to commit severe economic self harm if we want to make sure the same doesn't happen to us.

Is it really Anglophobia to do this?

I also note that your posts are less and less focused on real Brexit issues and more sniping at the edges these days. The fantasy of a successful Brexit is clearly fading.

The whole thing is getting urgent now. There will be no progress to trade in December and the next opportunity to agree on that is the next leader's summit in MARCH!

That's a year after A50 was triggered and just 6 months before the deal needs to be done to allow the 27 and the EP time to ratify. To me it's looking like the UK will have to ask for an extension but they need to ask soon because business will kick their contingency plans into high gear in the new year if no progress is made.

Good morning!

If one has evidence that the education system in Britain led to Brexit then happily provide it.

If one doesn't have evidence and makes derisory comments that Britain voted to leave the EU because people are dim or aren't educated or that there's something in the education system that caused it, yes that is Anglophobia because it is baseless and it is with prejudice to the British people for making a democratic decision.

On Brexit issues I think the negotiations are going well as of the time of writing and I anticipate further progress. I've not posted as frequently as there hasn't really been much to comment on since October.

The departure of Priti Patel presents an opportunity for the Prime Minister on the Brexit legislation. I think she should choose a remainer like Nicky Morgan provided that she supports the Government on the EU Withdrawal Bill. Mathematics will be important when it comes to the return of the bill. Her time in Cameron's Government also shows that she's an effective minister. May needs to shore up loyalty now to ensure the legislative agenda for Brexit gets through relatively unscathed.

Apart from that there's not much else to discuss from my end. I don't put much stock in the horror stories.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

ambro25

murphaph wrote: »

Is it really Anglophobia to do this?

Must have been arrogant of me to presume that the facts that my wife is British, that we have been together for very many years (24 years, married 21 years), and that -aggregately- I have lived about as much of my life in the UK than anywhere else, were well-known to regular posters in this thread like solo.

Solo, where exactly did I post that "Britain's education system is the cause for Brexit"?

Fact is, I didn't.

The government's choice to implement the referendum poll result, is 'the cause of Brexit'.

The relevance of Britain's education system (besides other factors, objective and subjective) and the length of its use by the population in proportion (Calina's point, which I accept) is to the individual voting decision at the time of that poll, not Brexit. And there's tons of public survey evidence about that one.

But well. For Leavers, anyone not talking up Brexit is a traitor. And/or an Anglophobe. And/or <etc.>

I've been called far worse, tbh :pac:

murphaph wrote: »

The whole thing is getting urgent now. There will be no progress to trade in December and the next opportunity to agree on that is the next leader's summit in MARCH!

That's a year after A50 was triggered and just 6 months before the deal needs to be done to allow the 27 and the EP time to ratify. To me it's looking like the UK will have to ask for an extension but they need to ask soon because business will kick their contingency plans into high gear in the new year if no progress is made.

We know already that the March timescale is too far gone, for most UK businesses with processes that require contingency planning (60% figure by January 2018, as mentioned by CBI this week).

With Patel gone (and maybe another one or two before month end, at the rate things are going), I daresay it's too late, in political terms: there isn't sufficient time for the party infighting to subside and for May to regain enough of a handhold/equilibrium over the Cabinet, for the UK to improve on the 3 core issues -and in particular the most politically sensitive issue of the exit bill- before end December.