Brexit discussion thread II

An Ciarraioch

Tell me this isn't real?

https://mobile.twitter.com/luchinlucho/status/928581416648151040

ancapailldorcha

solodeogloria wrote: »

It isn't true though. The Government have highlighted that they want a transitional period, they have highlighted that they want to ratify FTA's with existing external partners and to sign a free trade deal with the European Union and they have highlighted that they want to forge free trade agreements with other countries for when the transitional period is over. That's a pretty clear plan in respect to the economy. That isn't ????? but a clear strategy.

This isn't a plan, it's an aspiration. It's like me saying that I want to become a millionaire, ie ultimately useless as there are no details whatsoever on actions that need to be taken. Heck, look at how long it took to sort out the rights of EU citizens living here and even that's still a shambles.

solodeogloria wrote: »

If this was simply your first post on the thread I'd understand. If you'd been outside of Britain, heck most of the world without any internet, TV or radio I'd really understand but there's not really an excuse for saying there isn't a plan.

All you've done here is spout soundbytes and strawmen. Nothing more than that. You can't post in this manner and then be sincerely surprised when other people are pessimistic about the situation.

solodeogloria wrote: »

There is and if that outcome is reached the UK will be better off in the long term for having executed it and regained control. More liberal trade with the wider world will mean more jobs.

Please elaborate on how the EU constrains job growth and trade with external economies given that over 55% of British exports go outside the EU, ideally with sources.

View

It should be pointed out that the EU has around 50 trade deals in operation. By way of contrast the US has around 20. Anyone who thinks a post-Brexit UK will equal the US figure, never mind the EU one, anytime soon hasn’t been paying attention to the complete shambles the current UK government is making of their exit negotiations. And the three issue exit negotiation is positively easy when compared to the complexities of a trade deal that would cover hundreds of items.

Calina

ambro25 wrote: »

Thanks for the challenge and insight, Calina, and I actually agree with your point about the comparative lengths of education; though I feel as though I should somehow put more bones (or at least, context) to my earlier post.

(snip)

In general I take your point on personal experience. My own experience is Irish system back in the day, some work teaching in the French system for a very short while and lately, a significant amount of listening to people complaining about the schools options they have selected for their children. I could say I don't want to go there...

And it is off topic. I appreciate the reply. Comparing education systems is notoriously difficult but I think arguably, people who stay in school until 16 only are likely to be less well educated on average than people who stay in school until 18 at the least notwithstanding the numbers who take a different approach afterwards. And for solo's benefit there is a correlation between likelihood of voting in favour of Brexit and education levels attained where the higher your level education the more likely it is you may have chosen to vote in favour of remaining in the EU. This is not disputed.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I'd propose that people irrespective of whether they voted to remain or leave had their reasons. This spurious speculation about whether Britain's education system is the cause for Brexit is just arrogant willy waving and borderline Anglophobia again.

We should aim for better.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

There was a lot of nuance in what I posted last night in terms of a snapshot of certain cultural behaviour in the UK which differs considerably from that in Ireland in the area of education. As statistics exist to demonstrate a correlation between Brexit voting and levels of education, it is not a spurious line of enquiry to consider

The cause of Brexit was David Cameron running a referendum ineptly and not carrying out contingency planning and the subsequent UK government not actually clarifying what Brexit meant in terms the population could agree on

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

If one has evidence that the education system in Britain led to Brexit then happily provide it.

If one doesn't have evidence and makes derisory comments that Britain voted to leave the EU because people are dim or aren't educated or that there's something in the education system that caused it, yes that is Anglophobia because it is baseless and it is with prejudice to the British people for making a democratic decision.

I have posted a link above which demonstrates that levels of education were linked with how people voted with respect to Brexit. This is not to state that the education system can be blamed for Brexit and in my post to ambro25 yesterday evening I particularly made the point that the issue may not be the education system itself but the amount of time people remained in it. I also provided statistics demonstrating that historically, large numbers of people in the UK did not remain in second level education to the end of the advanced second level school cycle.

This is not directly blaming the UK education system because there is not a UK system per se. Scotland has its system and England, Wales and NI share a broadly similar system. It's interesting in that context that NI voted against Brexit and Wales and England voted in favour. I'm really not in the mood for finding school completion stats for NI because god knows finding figures for the UK has a whole last night was hard because they changed the way they collected statistics around 2011, 2012. But a look at figures for around 2010 for up to age 17 shows that a few percentage points more of young people in NI stay in full time education than do in England. Key issues with those stats is they include jobskills courses so a straight comparison is difficult.

Professor Moriarty

oscarBravo wrote: »

Is it, though? Or is it a series of aspirations?

If I announce that I want to leave my wife so that I am free to sleep with Heidi Klum, that's not a plan (unless Heidi has agreed in advance). The freedom to make trade deals is only useful if there is a queue of countries waiting to do deals with the UK that are unwilling to do such deals with the EU; and/or if those deals are on more favourable terms than the EU would be able to negotiate. Maybe, if it happens. I'm not convinced that the UK is in a stronger negotiating position than the EU, though, which means that trade deals will be done from a position of relative weakness.

The EU is positively promiscuous when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the wider world. I have yet to see a convincing case made that the UK will be able to make better deals than the EU could make on its behalf.

In the midst of alternating threats and pleading emanating from the Tories, it is blindingly obvious that they are oblivious to two simple facts. Firstly, despite the soothing noises, the EU has no interest in facilitating a beneficial exit because they need to make an example of Britain. Secondly, Britain is about to become a serious rival on the EU's doorstep so, in the event of an acrimonious hard Brexit, anything that the EU can do to mess up Britain's economy will give them an edge when competing for business globally.

Calina

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tell me this isn't real?

https://mobile.twitter.com/luchinlucho/status/928581416648151040

It appears to be real for now at least. However, it doesn't appear to ship to Luxembourg and anyway I can get illy and loumides here so wouldn't haved tried anyway.

Professor Moriarty

Calina wrote: »

It appears to be real for now at least. However, it doesn't appear to ship to Luxembourg and anyway I can get illy and loumides here so wouldn't haved tried anyway.

The company selling the Brexit Blend is called Crazy Cat. Enough said.

Professor Moriarty

It's Ireland's fault that Brexit isn't working. This headline from the Torygraph tonight:

Brexit talks thrown into chaos after Ireland makes fresh border demands in leaked document

Apparently the Paddies are looking for assurance about the pesky border. Ungrateful bastards.

Zubeneschamali

steddyeddy wrote: »

there are real Brexiters that I debate with in work. Some of their arguments seem fair. They do expect Britain to be worse off, but consider it a price worth paying for what they consider freedom.

They have no idea just how much it is going to cost.

The Government has a few ideas, but they are keeping them secret, because when those Brexiters find out, they are going to be very unhappy.

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They have no idea just how much it is going to cost.

The Government has a few ideas, but they are keeping them secret, because when those Brexiters find out, they are going to be very unhappy.

No they will simply claim it's all project fear and the rainbow and unicorns are just around the next year's corner waiting for them all.

Capt'n Midnight

Vronsky wrote: »

In fairness that argument they are trying to make is paper thin. Parliament knew what it was doing when it passed through Art. 50.

There only way to stop the process is for the UK to withdraw it's intent to leave AND get the agreement of the other states to allow it.

This has already been through the House of Commons and the House of Lords and the UK Supreme Court and our High Court , so good luck arguing about it's legality.

And as the UK doesn't have a written constitution the House of Commons can do as it pleases, legally riding roughshod over the people, legal system, royalty and the Lords. They don't need to follow the rules because they can re-make them any time.

Sam Russell

Calina wrote: »

It appears to be real for now at least. However, it doesn't appear to ship to Luxembourg and anyway I can get illy and loumides here so wouldn't haved tried anyway.

It does not ship to Ireland either.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the midst of alternating threats and pleading emanating from the Tories, it is blindingly obvious that they are oblivious to two simple facts. Firstly, despite the soothing noises, the EU has no interest in facilitating a beneficial exit because they need to make an example of Britain. Secondly, Britain is about to become a serious rival on the EU's doorstep so, in the event of an acrimonious hard Brexit, anything that the EU can do to mess up Britain's economy will give them an edge when competing for business globally.

The EU's main concern is with keeping the European project together. They aren't going to risk that on the off chance it makes things a little easier for a UK political party with a history of backstabbing, corruption and sex scandals.

On the economic front, having a basket case on their doorstep isn't in anyone's interest. The UK will still be a trading partner but I can't see the UK being a rival. Sterling dropped massively in value and UK hasn't benefited. Even stuff like tourism hasn't had the same sort of increase that's it's had here or elsewhere in Europe. The UK has missed one boat already.

blanch152

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

If that were actually true I'd agree with you.

It isn't true though. The Government have highlighted that they want a transitional period, they have highlighted that they want to ratify FTA's with existing external partners and to sign a free trade deal with the European Union and they have highlighted that they want to forge free trade agreements with other countries for when the transitional period is over. That's a pretty clear plan in respect to the economy. That isn't ????? but a clear strategy.

If this was simply your first post on the thread I'd understand. If you'd been outside of Britain, heck most of the world without any internet, TV or radio I'd really understand but there's not really an excuse for saying there isn't a plan.

There is and if that outcome is reached the UK will be better off in the long term for having executed it and regained control. More liberal trade with the wider world will mean more jobs.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

OK, let's adjust his post. It now reads something like this:


1. Leave the EU
2. ??????
3. Lots of great FTAs with friendly countries
4. Profit

Thargor

You know things are serious when you see opinion like this in a Murdoch Paper:

Cabinet chaos is a sign of our national decline

Our departure from Europe will mark the moment we stop pretending to punch above our weight and realise our low standing

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cabinet-chaos-is-a-sign-of-our-national-decline-sjxbf0r93

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The EU's main concern is with keeping the European project together. They aren't going to risk that on the off chance it makes things a little easier for a UK political party with a history of backstabbing, corruption and sex scandals.

On the economic front, having a basket case on their doorstep isn't in anyone's interest. The UK will still be a trading partner but I can't see the UK being a rival. Sterling dropped massively in value and UK hasn't benefited. Even stuff like tourism hasn't had the same sort of increase that's it's had here or elsewhere in Europe. The UK has missed one boat already.

No, a basket case isn't in anyone's interest for a variety of reasons not least because political instability might ultimately spread and the EU will want Britain to be able to afford to buy its goods.The ideal scenario is a hamstrung British economy limping along in the EU'S shadow.

Leonard Hofstadter

Thargor wrote: »

You know things are serious when you see opinion like this in a Murdoch Paper:

The Times was always a Remain backing paper (it's only the Sunday Times that backed leave) and has frequently covered things from Tory remain point of view even since the referendum. Probably the only thing owned by Murdoch (along with Sky News) that takes the remain side.

Even the notorious Daily Mail is the same; the The Mail on Sunday's editor is a staunch remainer and that paper still covers things from a viewpoint that is some way grounded in the real world (unlike its sibling which of course imagines things in a parallel universe).

The Rape of Lucretia

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-on-irish-border-hit-stumbling-block-1.3286339

irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-on-irish-border-hit-stumbling-block


I missed the bit about Brexit talks on the Irish border going along without a hitch.
Anyone know when that was ?

Capt'n Midnight

Only in some UK politicians imagination.

In reality once you leave the main roads it's very difficult to spot the existing border.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

In other words, if Britain wants to avoid a hard border, and to protect the Good Friday Agreement, the only real way to do so is that if both parts of the island are in the customs union and the single market.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Only in some UK politicians imagination.

In reality once you leave the main roads it's very difficult to spot the existing border.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

Even on the main roads. If Google maps is accurate one lane of the N1 (northbound) crosses the border into Northern Ireland, then back to the Republic then back to the North at the signage.

Water John

Seems we are now into crunch/reality time.
The malign influence of the DUP will show its hand. Ulster says No, has a new meaning.

LeinsterDub

An internal EU paper has suggested that the avoidance of a hard border on the island of Ireland effectively requires Northern Ireland to remain in the single market and the customs union.

Has the fat lady started to sing? There is no way the DUP will accept this unless the rest of the UK is in too and there is no way May and the hardcore will accept being in.

Nothing left to talk about folks?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

solodeogloria

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Can't open that link. A small quote perhaps? Are you just going to ignore the NI issue?

steddyeddy

The Telegraph having a field day with Irish developments. The Telegraph says Ireland has taken a "toughened stance". No, Ireland's simply paying respect to the GFA, unlike May who has aligned herself with loyalists.

Brexit talks thrown into chaos after Ireland makes fresh border demands in leaked document

British hopes of opening Brexit trade and transition talks this December were thrown into renewed doubt as it emerged that Ireland is making fresh demands over the Northern Ireland border question, the Telegraph can reveal.

The toughened Irish stance, reflected in a leaked European Commission document obtained by The Telegraph, blindsided British officials at Brexit negotiations in Brussels on Thursday as Ireland piled on pressure in the talks.

British officials had believed that question of how to avoid creating a hard Irish border when the UK quits the EU single market and customs union had been ‘parked’ until the EU opened talks over trade and the future relationship.

steddyeddy

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I don't think there's movement on the UK side. There's just a realisation of the weak position they're in.

LeinsterDub

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html

Dublin Port could face 9km tailbacks of trucks and will need three hectares of extra space to cope with a full customs regime being reintroduced as a result of Brexit, the British Irish Chamber of Commerce has warned.
A worst-case scenario Brexit, with the reintroduction of a full customs regime, would mean stopping all of the 400,000 trucks a year that cross from Dublin to Holyhead and back, the chamber's director general John McGrane told the Irish Independent.

It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

steddyeddy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html



It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

We do indeed. This will be a major economic set-back for Ireland too.

LeinsterDub

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't think there's movement on the UK side. There's just a realisation of the weak position they're in.

Certainly not movement on the EU side who have always maintained the line tell us how much you owe us and we'll talk. The UK can throw out all the figures it wants but we still need to figure out who ordered the 5 craft beers and who ordered the extra garlic bread.

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

The Telegraph having a field day with Irish developments. The Telegraph says Ireland has taken a "toughened stance". No, Ireland's simply paying respect to the GFA, unlike May who has aligned herself with loyalists.

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

steddyeddy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

It is indeed. The Telegraph is basically the Express for middle class people. It's a rag.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

You'd think the phrase 3 core issues would be fairly self explanatory?

sink

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html



It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

More direct ferry services from the continental mainland seems like it would make more sense than trying to find room in Dublin Port. Most of the imports from Holyhead are coming from the continental mainland. Unfortunately it will cost more and take more time, but that's the cost of Brexit.

Nody

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html



It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

To late for that; here's the simple fact and it goes far beyond Ireland. UK will not be able to ship out goods at the current rate to EU because there's simply not space on the EU side to go through the inspections. This includes the time to build facilities (4 years for the labs required for animals & fresh products required in Calais for example) to the time to train additional staff (4 year in Germany, 2 years in France and the people would only be available in 2020 as the recruitment is now for the 2018 intake etc.).

Will there need to be additional space? Yes. Will it require to hold the current UK volumes? Heck no because that's UK's problem and once the space is filled then the trucks get to wait until space frees up on UK's side of the border since the trucks would simply be refused to leave the ferry. Once that reality kicks in expect to see significant drops of UK volume to EU as the supply lines will be rerouted and the actual volume required will appear which I'd guesstimate at 50% or less of today for actual inspection (plenty of empty trucks coming out of UK as today though!).

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You'd think the phrase 3 core issues would be fairly self explanatory?

None so blind as those who will not see. They are simply hand waving reality away.

flatty

steddyeddy wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

It is indeed. The Telegraph is basically the Express for middle class people. It's a rag.

Actually it isn't. Iirc, it has more boots on the ground foreign correspondents than most other papers. It's actually not as bad as you'd be led to believe. I'm surprised at this shoite it's published. Maybe I'm just too infrequent a reader of it or any other paper.

First Up

May has some deciding to do. If Brexit is to progress, the Irish issue must be resolved to the EU's satisfaction, which means protecting the GFA, protecting the integrity of the EU's external border and protecting Ireland's status in the Single Merket. That increasingly looks like being something that will cause the DUP to walk away.

So another UK election is on the horizon with all the possibilities that brings.

Start your engines.

Gerrup Outta Dat!

There’s a place called Coleman Island. It’s in Co Monaghan. However, it’s only accessible by road by dipping into NI.

If a hard Brexit happens and all but main arterial roads stay open. What will happen Coleman island?

Will they be annexed like West Berlin in East Germany?

Will ROI surrender that bit of land to the UK?

Will ROI build new roads into Coleman Island?

If a hard brexit does happen and they insist on policing the border, will it be financially worthwhile to police two border crossings to get to a Monaghan townland where all but 20 or 30 people live?

Nody

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

If a hard brexit does happen and they insist on policing the border, will it be financially worthwhile to police two border crossings to get to a Monaghan townland where all but 20 or 30 people live?

The easiest (hence most likely) solution is to pull back the border control up to one or two km into Ireland (all depending on the local road & country layout) and simply do the checks border checks there. Now that does not stop UK from adding multiple border controls on their side but realistically I'd expect a relative lax, if any, controls because they can rely on Ireland (and EU standards). That is before they get hit with the tax frauds etc. but that's how I envision the start of it if there's to be a hard border control.

First Up wrote: »

May has some deciding to do. If Brexit is to progress, the Irish issue must be resolved to the EU's satisfaction, which means protecting the GFA, protecting the integrity of the EU's external border and protecting Ireland's status in the Single Merket. That increasingly looks like being something that will cause the DUP to walk away.

So another UK election is on the horizon with all the possibilities that brings.

Start your engines.

It's actually quite bad; let's say she gets pushed out/calls for a GE in January/February. We'd take let's say 3 months to the GE in May. Now new government comes in May and has until October to finalize the basic three and a trade agreement and what not to meet the deadline (remember without the basic 3 resolved no extension is possible). Simply put with Corbyn in power (only alternative) it's not going to happen as Labour is as split as Tory on the question of EU in the first place. If anything it will only add confusion and diffuse the blame; I'd rather see Tories in power all the way through to the crash out to ensure the blame is fairly and squarely in one corner.

Professor Moriarty

flatty wrote: »

Actually it isn't. Iirc, it has more boots on the ground foreign correspondents than most other papers. It's actually not as bad as you'd be led to believe. I'm surprised at this shoite it's published. Maybe I'm just too infrequent a reader of it or any other paper.

I check it out most days. Its tone and content is designed to reaffirm white middle class Little Englander notions about race, Britannia, class and gender. Much of its reportage is coloured in this way. Sometimes the bias is subtle and other times it's blatant - as in this case.

Gerrup Outta Dat!

What if it forces us out of the EU?

Nody

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

What if it forces us out of the EU?

How? All Ireland has to do (and yes it's a big thing to do but it's done in multiple countries already) is to implement border control at the north.

LeinsterDub

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

What if it forces us out of the EU?

Quite frankly simply impossible . You can't be forced out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union#Suspension

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

We'd take let's say 3 months to the GE in May. Now new government comes in May and has until October to finalize the basic three and a trade agreement and what not to meet the deadline

Corbyn would immediately call for an extension of A50 blaming the bumbling Tory fools currently doing the negotiating. EU side: How long would you like, Mr. Corbyn?

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I(the Torygraph)...Its tone and content is designed to reaffirm white middle class Little Englander notions about race, Britannia, class and gender.

Yet even the Torygraph, pre Referendum, had the sense to know that leaving the Single Market and Customs Union was lunacy. They repeatedly called on the Leave campaign to explicitly state that a Norway model was the goal of Brexit.

They were ignored.

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Corbyn would immediately call for an extension of A50 blaming the bumbling Tory fools currently doing the negotiating. EU side: How long would you like, Mr. Corbyn?

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

Corbyn doesn't have to be an EU supporter to want to negotiate a smooth exit. Faced with chaotic Brexit or extending article 50, this is a no-brainer for the EU side.

Professor Moriarty

Nody wrote: »

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

I firmly believe that if Corbyn had stood up to the plate for Remain then Leave would have lost. His 'support' was lukewarm at best.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I firmly believe that if Corbyn had stood up to the plate for Remain then Leave would have lost. His 'support' was lukewarm at best.

Maybe so, but who would you prefer to have negotiating Brexit - David Davis with May and Boris behind him, or Keir Starmer with Corbyn?

First Up

The most likely outcome of a UK election is a hung parliament, within which the two main parties are also divided.

We'll see where that takes it, but it won't be in a straight line. The consequences of that for UK investment and trade is potentially horrific.