Brexit discussion thread II

flatty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ah it gets better. A headline in the Sun today states that the political wing of the IRA via Gerry Adams is responsible for the "new" border problem. It's funny seeing the brexiters in a rage all the time.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4889870/iras-political-wing-sinn-fein-to-blame-for-new-brexit-stand-off-over-northern-ireland-border-ministers-say/amp/

I disagree. It isn't funny at all. They're in charge and they're the ones making the decisions on the border. Their ignorance on the issue is blatant. They're only concern is getting out of the EU because they hate it, not for prosperity, not for stability or trade but just because they hate the EU. The welfare of the people of the island of Ireland doesn't matter one whit to them.

I honestly don't think the welfare of their own does either. You keep hoping that this is all just media bluster, and that behind the scenes, senior civil servants are compromising, but, to be honest, I think that May and Co have benefited from this perception for the past few months, and it is looking increasingly likely that the whole thing is actually as much of a clusterfcuk as it appears.
I think people assumed that any functioning government would be capable of pragmatism, common sense, basic good manners, and a degree of empathy, but it appears not.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

I have not missed it at all. I think that a 'no-deal' result is such a calamity that it must be apparent to all, MPs and voters alike.

Nope; MPs believe they can do great on "WTO terms" and the likes of BBC still have not even the basic information right.

If a 'no-deal' is about to happen, then there will be last minute agreement to extend the UK membership for long enough to reach agreement, or at least to try.

EU has been quite clear they got no interest in doing such a last minute deal(s) and will simply look at cutting the ropes rather then give UK a parachute.

Its immense repercussions might well cause the MPs that want a deal to rebel against the Tory diehards and vote them out. Scottish Tories could well lead the charge.

The tories got more Brexiteers than pro brexit people in power and behind the scenes atm. If they rebel and let's say Labour gets in power nothing will really change because there are not enough MPs with a backbone to stand up for what's going on.

Will 'remain' Tories agree to a cliff edge disaster? If the UK is thrust into a GE, will the EU agree to extend the deadline? If the UK electorate are faced with a Tory cliff edge or a Labour/LibDem/SNP soft exit, which do they choose?

But they all believe that EU will budge and give them a last minute deal with what they want & need; by the time the realization hits in 2019 it will not be enough time for rebellion or a GE to happen. UK will go out without a deal and the big blame game will begin instead.

All I know is that some people's stupidity knows no bounds.

And this part is what makes this scarier then normal; not only are people stupid but they have been actively lied to from MPs downwards. You only need to listen to the probrexit Tories and what they spout about WTO to see how horribly misinformed they are about the subject. From their perspective it makes sense to crash out but the reality is very much different which no one appears to be able to get through to them.

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

Nope; MPs believe they can do great on "WTO terms" and the likes of BBC still have not even the basic information right.

If a 'no-deal' is about to happen, then there will be last minute agreement to extend the UK membership for long enough to reach agreement, or at least to try.

EU has been quite clear they got no interest in doing such a last minute deal(s) and will simply look at cutting the ropes rather then give UK a parachute.

The tories got more Brexiteers than pro brexit people in power and behind the scenes atm. If they rebel and let's say Labour gets in power nothing will really change because there are not enough MPs with a backbone to stand up for what's going on.

But they all believe that EU will budge and give them a last minute deal with what they want & need; by the time the realization hits in 2019 it will not be enough time for rebellion or a GE to happen. UK will go out without a deal and the big blame game will begin instead.

And this part is what makes this scarier then normal; not only are people stupid but they have been actively lied to from MPs downwards. You only need to listen to the probrexit Tories and what they spout about WTO to see how horribly misinformed they are about the subject. From their perspective it makes sense to crash out but the reality is very much different which no one appears to be able to get through to them.

My point is that, in the event that the Tory Gov collapses in say, Dec 2018 or Jan 2019, and a GE is called, and it looks like a change of Gov will result, I would expect the EU to postpone the jump off the cliff for at least a while, and if the incoming Gov requests a postponement, granting it, but on the understanding that the three basic items are agreed first.

I agree that the head bangers are very vocal, but not necessarily in the majority - particularly in the face of certain catastrophe.

Sand

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. It isn't funny at all. They're in charge and they're the ones making the decisions on the border. Their ignorance on the issue is blatant. They're only concern is getting out of the EU because they hate it, not for prosperity, not for stability or trade but just because they hate the EU. The welfare of the people of the island of Ireland doesn't matter one whit to them.

I think its telling that the piece is trying to portray Ireland and the EU's insistence on the Irish border as an IRA plot. Someone is doing their best to poison the well so that any UK compromise on the issue is seen as surrender to the IRA.

The UK media is appallingly poor quality.

CrabRevolution

A common trope in British media comment sections about Ireland seems to be about the UK bailing Ireland out.

The general gist is that the UK lent us money out of the goodness of their hearts (anywhere between 3 and 20 billion pounds is the figure usually produced, the figure is at the commenter's discretion).

In addition to this, we've paid none of it back. Worst of all we've apparently agreed no repayment schedule and the UK is perfectly entitled to demand billions of pounds plus interest in one go off Ireland whenever it feels like getting it's money back.

I've no doubt the UK participated in the main IMO/EC/ECB bailout and as such did provide funding in a roundabout way. However can anyone clarify to me what the real background or relationship is with the Irish bailout and the UK? It has to have come from somewhere for them to go on about it so much.

Nody

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I've no doubt the UK participated in the main IMO/EC/ECB bailout and as such did provide funding in a roundabout way. However can anyone clarify to me what the real background or relationship is with the Irish bailout and the UK? It has to have come from somewhere for them to go on about it so much.

As always it as much BS as the normal stories. Yes, UK did give a direct loan of £3.2 billion as part of the overall bail out but that loan has had interest payments paid of about half a billion and is due to be fully repaid in 2021. Then there's the fact they bailed out their own banks which had Irish subsidies which of course is Ireland's fault for UK banks making poor decisions to the tune of £14 billion and finally there is a more generic funding for EU bailout which they are also getting paid back. So their knowledge is about as accurate as Trump's tweeting; there is truth involved in the underlying story but that they got it completely wrong and argue it as truth.

flatty

Sand wrote: »

I think its telling that the piece is trying to portray Ireland and the EU's insistence on the Irish border as an IRA plot. Someone is doing their best to poison the well so that any UK compromise on the issue is seen as surrender to the IRA.

The UK media is appallingly poor quality.

It is The Sun.
I agree with the last line.
I had hoped that the next generation would get more news from the net, and from wider sources, but it seems that their online profiles are susceptible to targeted "advertising". The whole thing is worrying. Party politics is obviously not really working at the minute, but what else is there?
The only forlorn hope for the UK is that brexit,being the preeminent issue, overrides current party lines,and a centrist party forms from the existing ones. Can't see it though. It would need a leader, the likes of which there has t been in generations, and time, which they don't have.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

Nope; MPs believe they can do great on "WTO terms" and the likes of BBC still have not even the basic information right.

If a 'no-deal' is about to happen, then there will be last minute agreement to extend the UK membership for long enough to reach agreement, or at least to try.

EU has been quite clear they got no interest in doing such a last minute deal(s) and will simply look at cutting the ropes rather then give UK a parachute.

The tories got more Brexiteers than pro brexit people in power and behind the scenes atm. If they rebel and let's say Labour gets in power nothing will really change because there are not enough MPs with a backbone to stand up for what's going on.

But they all believe that EU will budge and give them a last minute deal with what they want & need; by the time the realization hits in 2019 it will not be enough time for rebellion or a GE to happen. UK will go out without a deal and the big blame game will begin instead.

And this part is what makes this scarier then normal; not only are people stupid but they have been actively lied to from MPs downwards. You only need to listen to the probrexit Tories and what they spout about WTO to see how horribly misinformed they are about the subject. From their perspective it makes sense to crash out but the reality is very much different which no one appears to be able to get through to them.

My point is that, in the event that the Tory Gov collapses in say, Dec 2018 or Jan 2019, and a GE is called, and it looks like a change of Gov will result, I would expect the EU to postpone the jump off the cliff for at least a while, and if the incoming Gov requests a postponement, granting it, but on the understanding that the three basic items are agreed first.

I agree that the head bangers are very vocal, but not necessarily in the majority - particularly in the face of certain catastrophe.

The EU won’t agree to such an extension. It’s up to the UK’s Brexit government to get itself sorted out. If it doesn’t or cannot, it isn’t up to the EU to step in to help keep the Brexiters’ dream alive.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

Samaris wrote: »

I think it's a bit pie in the sky to see anything but a hard border between NI and the republic. Hell, Davis doesn't seem entirely sure of what it is, given previous mention of it being an 'internal border' (twice in one speech, albeit a little while ago now, so hopefully he's been given a crash vourse in geography since.) Not really au fait with how to go linking articles with this phone, but it did happen! (And this is the genius in charge of the negotiations? It's hardly the only time he's shown a fundamental lack of understanding of what he's doing.)

The Irish Sea border is definitely best for the republic, but the UK really can't agree to that. It would be (another) abandonment of the north. NI residents would presumably need ID to travel to the UK and would be a bit of a free for all in terms of regulation. Also, what does that mean for UK regulated goods and agricultural livestock? Can they get to the island freely? How to prevent them coming into the south? What does this mean for Irish trade if there's an incident ( say Foot and Mouth). Do Irish exports get hit too due to the risk of infection?

It's absolute bull for the papers/Ministers to whine that they were 'blindsided' by this though. It's hardly been hidden for the last six months. That they didn't want to talk about it never meant that the problem went away. The divorce bill is mostly difficult due to intransigence. The Irish border is actually difficult and unclear. But it has been bleedin' obvious from the start that it would be a hard border on the island or a border in the sea. The former is more likely and Ireland must be prepared for it by March 2019 - not least as Britain probably won't be.

As I see it, there are four possible solutions to the NI border. (Five if you include the UK dropping Brexit!)

1. The UK remains in the customs union and the single market.

2. The UK agrees that NI remains in the customs union and the single market while the UK leaves and so the EU border is in the sea.

3. A hard border on the island of Ireland.

4. A united Ireland.

The first has been ruled out, but a transition of 5 years or so would enable the negotiations to move on. Th UK are saying the NI border should be discussed as part of the trade negotiations as the two are tied up together. The EU are saying that the NI border dictates the type of trade deal and must be decided first as the GFA is at issue.

The third option has been ruled out by the EU and by Ireland who can veto the agreement (if ever we get that far).

That leaves option 2 and 4. Both are unlikely to be accepted by the DUP, The UI option requires a referendum in both NI and ROI to be passed. The second option is less bad for the DUP, so given a 'No Deal' or 'Border at sea' which way would they jump? I think they would jump off the cliff.

The above is all trade related. On the question of people, National ID cards will answer most problems the UK faces regarding immigration, both EU and rest of the world immigration. They should apply to the whole population, not just NI or 'foreign' folk. It then becomes easy for employers and landlords. 'Papers please!'

The UK has ruled out the second option.

Hence, since the referendum result, it as and always has been option 3 by default .

There is no point in pretending the Emperor is still wearing clothes because no one wants to come out and state he isn’t.

Capt'n Midnight

EU citizens 'worth £4.42bn to Scotland'

And a reminder about turkeys voting for Christmas. Any business that plans major investment in the next few years will be looking at all the options.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41915195

Anna Wallace, the director of political relations at the professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, told the story of a manufacturing company in Wales that has decided to replace EU migrant workers with machines, rather than with a locally hired workforce.

"They knew they were probably going to do that in five years' time," she says. "But good businesses are now thinking about all of those things together."

steddyeddy

flatty wrote: »

It is The Sun.
I agree with the last line.
I had hoped that the next generation would get more news from the net, and from wider sources, but it seems that their online profiles are susceptible to targeted "advertising". The whole thing is worrying. Party politics is obviously not really working at the minute, but what else is there?
The only forlorn hope for the UK is that brexit,being the preeminent issue, overrides current party lines,and a centrist party forms from the existing ones. Can't see it though. It would need a leader, the likes of which there has t been in generations, and time, which they don't have.

Sorry but it's not just the Sun. It's a general ignorance in the British media from broadsheets to tabloids. The fact is one of the best selling newspapers linked the Brexit border problem to the IRA.

CrabRevolution

I'm not even a big Celtic fan, but for the last few years I've gotten endless entertainment from looking at Rangers message boards as their fans delude themselves in trying to handle their new reality. (A LOT of parallels to brexit in a way. Desire to return to the past, every act being viewed as "punishment". Talk of an all conquering future after they inexplicably become world beaters overnight)


It's amazing though how common it is among them to blame all of their woes on the catholic church and/or the IRA. Whether it be about referees decisions, UEFA rules, local councillors, the Scottish government, parades etc. It can all be traced back to priests and the IRA.


I've always thought they are just the extreme fringe of British society, so it's disheartening to see mainstream newspapers adopt a similar stance by bringing up the IRA boogy man.

Capt'n Midnight

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ah it gets better. A headline in the Sun today states that the political wing of the IRA via Gerry Adams is responsible for the "new" border problem. It's funny seeing the brexiters in a rage all the time.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4889870/iras-political-wing-sinn-fein-to-blame-for-new-brexit-stand-off-over-northern-ireland-border-ministers-say/amp/

That's actually impressive.

How to explain to their readers that FG and FF aren't in government together and the main reason they are talking to each other to keep SF out.

Nody

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And a reminder about turkeys voting for Christmas.

Cornwell being a hardcore Brexit county with 55% voting leave has 2/3rds less staff available on their farms due to the Brexit vote and asks for an exception from the future immigration policy as crops are rotting in the fields already. That's a good turkey; keep on voting for Christmas like good turkeys...

“If we put strict limits on Eastern European migrant labour or devise alternative immigration policies that limit so-called ‘low-skilled’ labour, the Cornish horticultural industry is finished," said David Simmons of Riviera Produce, one of Cornwall's biggest producers.

And of course let's not forget another Brexit stronghold on the British coast with 70% voting leave wanting exceptions. Appear to be an ongoing trend that the hardcore brexit areas also want exception from the exact thing they asked for...

recedite

Mr Dave Davis is at the golf club returning his locker key when Mr Barnier, the membership secretary sees him.
"Hello Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier. "I'm sorry to hear you are no longer renewing your club membership,if you would like to come to my office we can settle your account".
"I have settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis..
"Ah yes Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier, "but there are other matters that need settlement"
In Mr Barniers office Mr Davis explains that he has settled his bar bill so wonders what else he can possibly owe the Golf Club? "Well Mr Davis" begins Mr Barnier, "you did agree to buy one of our Club Jackets".
"Yes" agrees Mr Davis "I did agree to buy a jacket but I haven't received it yet". "As soon as you supply the jacket I will send you a cheque for the full amount".
"That will not be possible" explains Mr Barnier. "As you are no longer a club member you will not be entitled to buy one of our jackets"!
"But you still want me to pay for it" exclaims Mr Davis.
"Yes" says Mr Barnier, "That will be £500 for the jacket. "There is also your bar bill".
"But I've already settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis. "Yes" says Mr Barnier, "but as you can appreciate, we need to place our orders from the Brewery in advance to ensure our bar is properly stocked".. "You regularly used to spend at least £50 a week in the bar so we have placed orders with the brewery accordingly for the coming year". "You therefore owe us £2600 for the year".
"Will you still allow me to have these drinks?" asks Mr Davis.
]"No of course not Mr Davis". "You are no longer a club member!" says Mr Barnier.
"Next is your restaurant bill" continues Mr Barnier. "In the same manner we have to make arrangements in advance with our catering suppliers". "Your average restaurant bill was in the order of £300 a month, so we'll require payment of £3600 for the next year".
"I don't suppose you'll be letting me have these meals either" asks Mr Davis.
"No, of course not" says an irritated Mr Barnier, "you are no longer a club member!"
"Then of course" Mr Barnier continues, "there are repairs to the clubhouse roof".
"Clubhouse roof" exclaims Mr Davis, "What's that got to do with me?"
"Well it still needs to be repaired and the builders are coming in next week", your share of the bill is £2000".
"I see" says Mr Davis, "anything else?".
"Now you mention it" says Mr Barnier, "there is Fred the Barman's pension". "We would like you to pay £5 a week towards Fred's pension when he retires next month". "He's not well you know so I doubt we'll need to ask you for payment for longer than about five years, so £1300 should do it". "This brings your total bill to £10,000" says Mr Barnier. "Let me get this straight" says Mr Davis, "you want me to pay £500 for a jacket you won't let me have, £2600 for beverages you won't let me drink and £3600 for
food you won't let me eat, all under a roof I won't be allowed under and not served by a bloke who's going to retire next month!"
"Yes, it's all perfectly clear and quite reasonable" says Mr Barnier.
"Piss off!" says Mr Davis

mickoneill31

Good god the posts in here are really going down hill.

Where's the analogy for the UK citizens living in Europe, the WTO tariffs, the fact that the UK needs immigrants and the Irish border. Can you fit those into your golf club story and update it.

The UK has the option of saying piss off to Europe. Nobody is stopping them. Why don't they just do that?

Here's another basic explanation.

"I'm going to cancel Netflix and negotiate with each film producer separately, to get the best deal for me and my family"

It's banal too and easy to pick holes in. But it's funny.

Sand

I think the key thing is the negotiations have not yet started. Phase 1 is simply discussing the difficulties caused by Brexit, and working as a team to resolve them. How should citizens of the UK and EU suddenly trapped by Brexit behind foreign borders be treated? How will the UK and the EU ensure the spirit and the terms of the GFA are respected? Will the UK honour the undertakings it made as part of the EU or will it dishonour them?

This is not a negotiation where each side can walk away no worse off than before they sat down to talk. It is problem solving where if solutions are not found, one side will be much worse off than before. The UK ought to be looking to demonstrate good faith here, to prepare a positive environment for future negotiations between the EU and the UK as third country. Those negotiations may take the best part of a decade, but they wont even start if the UK dishonours it obligations and demonstrates itself to be a dishonest and reckless partner.

View

recedite wrote: »

Mr Dave Davis is at the golf club returning his locker key when Mr Barnier, the membership secretary sees him.
"Hello Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier. "I'm sorry to hear you are no longer renewing your club membership,if you would like to come to my office we can settle your account".
"I have settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis..
"Ah yes Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier, "but there are other matters that need settlement"
In Mr Barniers office Mr Davis explains that he has settled his bar bill so wonders what else he can possibly owe the Golf Club? "Well Mr Davis" begins Mr Barnier, "you did agree to buy one of our Club Jackets".
"Yes" agrees Mr Davis "I did agree to buy a jacket but I haven't received it yet". "As soon as you supply the jacket I will send you a cheque for the full amount".
"That will not be possible" explains Mr Barnier. "As you are no longer a club member you will not be entitled to buy one of our jackets"!
"But you still want me to pay for it" exclaims Mr Davis.
"Yes" says Mr Barnier, "That will be £500 for the jacket. "There is also your bar bill".
"But I've already settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis. "Yes" says Mr Barnier, "but as you can appreciate, we need to place our orders from the Brewery in advance to ensure our bar is properly stocked".. "You regularly used to spend at least £50 a week in the bar so we have placed orders with the brewery accordingly for the coming year". "You therefore owe us £2600 for the year".
"Will you still allow me to have these drinks?" asks Mr Davis.
]"No of course not Mr Davis". "You are no longer a club member!" says Mr Barnier.
"Next is your restaurant bill" continues Mr Barnier. "In the same manner we have to make arrangements in advance with our catering suppliers". "Your average restaurant bill was in the order of £300 a month, so we'll require payment of £3600 for the next year".
"I don't suppose you'll be letting me have these meals either" asks Mr Davis.
"No, of course not" says an irritated Mr Barnier, "you are no longer a club member!"
"Then of course" Mr Barnier continues, "there are repairs to the clubhouse roof".
"Clubhouse roof" exclaims Mr Davis, "What's that got to do with me?"
"Well it still needs to be repaired and the builders are coming in next week", your share of the bill is £2000".
"I see" says Mr Davis, "anything else?".
"Now you mention it" says Mr Barnier, "there is Fred the Barman's pension". "We would like you to pay £5 a week towards Fred's pension when he retires next month". "He's not well you know so I doubt we'll need to ask you for payment for longer than about five years, so £1300 should do it". "This brings your total bill to £10,000" says Mr Barnier. "Let me get this straight" says Mr Davis, "you want me to pay £500 for a jacket you won't let me have, £2600 for beverages you won't let me drink and £3600 for
food you won't let me eat, all under a roof I won't be allowed under and not served by a bloke who's going to retire next month!"
"Yes, it's all perfectly clear and quite reasonable" says Mr Barnier.
"Piss off!" says Mr Davis

There is nothing unfair about the EU asking the UK to settle its accounts as it leaves the EU.

The UK insisted that the Irish Free State as it gained independence would have to shoulder its “fair share” of then absolutely massive national debt (ie largely the imperial war debt from WWI) and the associated war pensions (see art 5 of the Anglo-Irish Treaty).

Are you seriously suggesting that we were falsely billed and can now claim our money back (plus a hundred years worth of interest on it and associated monies for the damage caused to the newly independent Free State arising from badly needed money being diverted from it to pay for the (UK’s) national debt)?

Nody

Sand wrote: »

I think the key thing is the negotiations have not yet started. Phase 1 is simply discussing the difficulties caused by Brexit, and working as a team to resolve them. How should citizens of the UK and EU suddenly trapped by Brexit behind foreign borders be treated? How will the UK and the EU ensure the spirit and the terms of the GFA are respected? Will the UK honour the undertakings it made as part of the EU or will it dishonour them?

This is not a negotiation where each side can walk away no worse off than before they sat down to talk. It is problem solving where if solutions are not found, one side will be much worse off than before. The UK ought to be looking to demonstrate good faith here, to prepare a positive environment for future negotiations between the EU and the UK as third country. Those negotiations may take the best part of a decade, but they wont even start if the UK dishonours it obligations and demonstrates itself to be a dishonest and reckless partner.

The problem is you're approaching this based on facts which are recognised world wide with exception of UK. In the UK not only does UK have the stronger hand ("They need us more than we need them"; "German car manufacturers will put pressure on Merkel"; "They need London's market for funding"; Without us there will be a impossible big hole to fill in their budget" etc.) but add in to this the British wit and intelligence of being able to run circles around the EU negotiation team (We'll do a chicken race with the no deal brexit and they will come running to us with what ever we want because we got bigger cahones) and EU leaders in general due to their national courage (Stiff upper lip! Tally ho! Remember our British Empire and spirit!). Besides EU there's a whole empire (even if no longer under our control) that UK can take up trade deals again as their Queen is the Queen of the Commonwealth after all; those other countries will fall in line with the wishes of the Queen and all other countries will simply throw open the doors for UK because, well, it's the UK! World's most famous nation for their innovation, science, food, culture etc.

Now to you and me that's lunatic fantasy country but for a significant part of the British ruling party and elite that's their actual beliefs. That is what makes the whole thing looks so silly from the outside; we're having two very different world views colliding and both think they are right. In the end I got a feeling that if all countries and facts point in one direction but one country thinks it's all wrong I know which side I'd like to be on. In many ways it's also reflected in the debate; Remainers will bring up actual facts, laws and regulations to show the impact while Brexiteers will hand wave it away and talk about emotions (freedom, setting our own rules etc.) and very high level generic pictures without any details or facts behind them.

sink

recedite wrote: »

Mr Dave Davis is at the golf club returning his locker key when Mr Barnier, the membership secretary sees him.
"Hello Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier. "I'm sorry to hear you are no longer renewing your club membership,if you would like to come to my office we can settle your account".
"I have settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis..
"Ah yes Mr Davis", says Mr Barnier, "but there are other matters that need settlement"
In Mr Barniers office Mr Davis explains that he has settled his bar bill so wonders what else he can possibly owe the Golf Club? "Well Mr Davis" begins Mr Barnier, "you did agree to buy one of our Club Jackets".
"Yes" agrees Mr Davis "I did agree to buy a jacket but I haven't received it yet". "As soon as you supply the jacket I will send you a cheque for the full amount".
"That will not be possible" explains Mr Barnier. "As you are no longer a club member you will not be entitled to buy one of our jackets"!
"But you still want me to pay for it" exclaims Mr Davis.
"Yes" says Mr Barnier, "That will be £500 for the jacket. "There is also your bar bill".
"But I've already settled my bar bill" says Mr Davis. "Yes" says Mr Barnier, "but as you can appreciate, we need to place our orders from the Brewery in advance to ensure our bar is properly stocked".. "You regularly used to spend at least £50 a week in the bar so we have placed orders with the brewery accordingly for the coming year". "You therefore owe us £2600 for the year".
"Will you still allow me to have these drinks?" asks Mr Davis.
]"No of course not Mr Davis". "You are no longer a club member!" says Mr Barnier.
"Next is your restaurant bill" continues Mr Barnier. "In the same manner we have to make arrangements in advance with our catering suppliers". "Your average restaurant bill was in the order of £300 a month, so we'll require payment of £3600 for the next year".
"I don't suppose you'll be letting me have these meals either" asks Mr Davis.
"No, of course not" says an irritated Mr Barnier, "you are no longer a club member!"
"Then of course" Mr Barnier continues, "there are repairs to the clubhouse roof".
"Clubhouse roof" exclaims Mr Davis, "What's that got to do with me?"
"Well it still needs to be repaired and the builders are coming in next week", your share of the bill is £2000".
"I see" says Mr Davis, "anything else?".
"Now you mention it" says Mr Barnier, "there is Fred the Barman's pension". "We would like you to pay £5 a week towards Fred's pension when he retires next month". "He's not well you know so I doubt we'll need to ask you for payment for longer than about five years, so £1300 should do it". "This brings your total bill to £10,000" says Mr Barnier. "Let me get this straight" says Mr Davis, "you want me to pay £500 for a jacket you won't let me have, £2600 for beverages you won't let me drink and £3600 for
food you won't let me eat, all under a roof I won't be allowed under and not served by a bloke who's going to retire next month!"
"Yes, it's all perfectly clear and quite reasonable" says Mr Barnier.
"Piss off!" says Mr Davis

Your analogy falls down because the UK is not simply a member of a club, it is also part owner. It's signature is on the mortgage as it were. It may be seeking to sell out, but that does not erase debts accrued and pension obligations to it's employees. Not only that but it is also looking at doing ongoing deals with it's former business partners, so they have a leverage.

An Ciarraioch

This map showing the NUTS classification of EU regions makes interesting reading - certainly the red and yellow English and Welsh regions would appear to have been the very areas that voted Leave:

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/7caqp3/classification_of_eu_regions_with_regards_to_the/

solodeogloria

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

This map showing the NUTS classification of EU regions makes interesting reading - certainly the red and yellow English and Welsh regions would appear to have been the very areas that voted Leave:

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/7caqp3/classification_of_eu_regions_with_regards_to_the/

Good morning!

Yes apart from Essex, a lot of Devon, Suffolk, Norfolk, much of Yorkshire, Herefordshire, Northumberland, Somerset, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Kent, some parts of Surrey, parts of East and West Sussex, a lot of Cambridgeshire, a lot of Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, a lot of Buckinghamshire, parts of Wiltshire and Berkshire all in blue and all who voted to leave and there's probably some I've missed. What exactly is the point being made here?

In any case the referendum is over and the hard work of implementing the result is underway.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

recedite

mickoneill31 wrote: »

"I'm going to cancel Netflix and negotiate with each film producer separately, to get the best deal for me and my family"

It's banal too and easy to pick holes in. But it's funny.

Or how about "I'm going to cancel my expensive fixed Sky subscription because I can get a better all round deal by installing freesat, and then I can get netflix separately as an add on if I want to.
But yeah, it was an jokey analogy. One with a point though.

sink wrote: »

Your analogy falls down because the UK is not simply a member of a club, it is also part owner.

Most typical golf clubs are owned by the membership.

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Yes apart from Essex, a lot of Devon, Suffolk, Norfolk, much of Yorkshire, Herefordshire, Northumberland, Somerset, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Kent, some parts of Surrey, parts of East and West Sussex, a lot of Cambridgeshire, a lot of Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, a lot of Buckinghamshire, parts of Wiltshire and Berkshire all in blue and all who voted to leave and there's probably some I've missed. What exactly is the point being made here?

In any case the referendum is over and the hard work of implementin the result is underway.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

So toffs and the unemployed and working classes united to force a resounding 52% victory. The toffs can afford to sit the disaster out. The others are just stupid.

Samaris

Well, if it's story-time...


A Rather More Truthful Painfully Simplified Version of Brexit That Still Is Daft As An Analogy.

Mr. Davis was at the golf club returning his locker key with a couple of his teenage children when Mr. Barnier, the membership secretary, saw him. The kids gave Mr. Barnier the "mortified teenager" expression that they give when they know their parent is about to do something embarrassing.

"Hello, Mr. Davis," said Mr. Barnier. "I saw the letter of resignation from the board this morning that your wife Theresa sent in. If you'd like to come to my office, we can settle the accounts and come to an agreement."

"I have settled my bar bill" started Mr. Davis, trailing him in confusion.

"Ah yes Mr Davis", said Mr Barnier, "but there are other matters that need settlement"

In Mr Barnier's office Mr Davis explained that he has settled his bar bill and so was wondering what else he could possibly owe the Golf Club.

"Well, Mr. Davis" began Mr Barnier. "I'm sorry that you and your family are leaving, although we're going to have to sort out the details, since we had our five-year planning meeting last year and funds that we all committed have been put towards current and future projects."

"Yes," agrees Mr. Davis. "I did agree to commit funds towards the clubhouse, but my family are leaving, so we don't know if we'll even benefit from it. We're removing the bit of land that we committed to the golfing green project and setting up our own, you see. Everyone wanted to leave as we don't like other people playing on our green when we're trying to."

"I didn't vote we should leave," mumbled the elder of the teenagers, turning a rebellious shade of plum. His sister folded her arms. "I didn't want to either," she complained.

"Quiet, leaving the golf club means leaving the golf club," said Davis firmly, turning on his two recalcricient sprogs. They glowered back. Mr. Barnier politely eyed the ceiling as he noted the dissension in the ranks.

"Oh yeah, and it'll be all sunset and roses and everyone will come to our tiny golf club," continued the low mutter of rebellion from behind Davis as he turned back to the manager.

"..So, you see, it would be rather unreasonable of us to pay towards a golf club that we'll be leaving next year," concluded Davis.

"And what about the border where your new golf club meets ours?" asked Barnier. "Varadkar's land borders yours on the other side and putting borders up through it will make things difficult for him and the Europa Club in general. We can't allow our club to be damaged by you pulling out without making concessions. Regarding the money, why didn't you decide to leave before we calculated out the five year budget which your family, as part-owners of the club, agreed to?"

"Well, that was when we thought we'd be playing here more," objected Davis. "But we decided that we want control over our bit of the green back fully. We don't agree with all these other people coming in that we can't control."

Mr. Barnier gave him a strange look, but forebore to ask how Davis planned to make the Britain Golf Club great again without allowing customers to play. Davis looked back defiantly.

"Now, we reckon we should only pay a small amount, but we're not quite sure what. We'll get back to you when we know. In the meantime, we expect to be allowed to play."

"And you said that we'd be allowed to play after we left while we get our bit of green ready to use.." mumbled Teenager 1 maliciously. Davis frowned, and then shrugged.

"...No," said Barnier. "That's nonsense. Especially while you're arguing that you shouldn't pay what you agreed you owed. However, if you agree to fulfill your debts and responsibilities, we can probably come to an arrangement. We're not discussing that until we've concluded the deal, however."

"It was a gentleman's agreement and not legally binding so we don't really -owe- anything," crowed Davis.

Barnier stared at him again, and this time wondered if he should forbear from asking if breaking it meant Davis was proclaiming himself not a gentleman. He forbore once again, but accidentally catching Teenager 1's eye, he was faintly amused to see that even the offspring seemed to think this was bull****.

"However, we should talk about how we and you will work together after we leave," added Davis.

Oh, do we, thought Barnier. He smiled thinly. "Then there are certain things we must come to agreement on," he said quietly. "That the Britain family, as shareholders in the Europa Golf Club will pay their five-year dues, as agreed in the 2016 meeting, since the money has already been pledged. That the border between your land and Mr. Varadkar's is organised to cause as little disruption as possible and that people can use the right-of-way from his land, around yours to ours, since the whole movement of EU citizens thing really doesn't work in this bloody stupid analogy."

"Quite," said Mr. Davis, hiding several Writs of Expulsion that had already been used on several Europa members that morning behind his back.

"Well?"

"Quite," said Mr. Davis again, staring at him briefly and then flicking his eyes to the lamp, the desk and a small bobble-head of Tiger Woods. It bobbled contently, unaware of the disgrace that had since engulfed the golfer it represented. "We'll come to those agreements as soon as you come up with some flexible methods to do so that won't harm us. It would be disgraceful to hold Varadkar's land hostage to this agreement."

"Then don't," agreed Mr. Barnier, staring back at him. Teenager 2 at this point was scratching her forehead, probably to hide her expression.

There was a long pause. It continued for six months.

Epilogue
Six months later, Mr. Barnier was getting annoyed and Mr. Davis was getting battered from all fronts. For some insane reason, the other shareholders in Europa were totally unreasonably not coming up with solutions for him and disregarding that his family had chosen to LEAVE. Even more annoyingly, a lot of them didn't seem to care, which was very irritating after Theresa, himself, and various cousins had spent six months proclaiming that the Europa Golf Club needed them a lot more than the Britain Golf Club would ever need the Europa. It was very unfair.

His wife had quietly tossed out a few of the less interesting Europa customers, and others were avoiding his land, heading over to the Frankfurt green or Varadkar's Ireland green, which was indeed looking rather greener than the Britain's green. Unfortunately, this was starting to cause issues for the cafes and tourist stores that for some unknown reason were scattered around the place because again, this is a fcuking stupid analogy. The teenagers were sulking industriously and occasionally trying to organise revolutions around Uncle Corbyn (who unfortunately also wanted to leave the Europa golf club), so it wasn't going well. It didn't help that Uncle Boris, chosen as representative of the All-New Independent Britain Golf Club had already insulted various big potential customers, and the deal with the Libyan Golf Club looked like it was down the khazi after his comment that it would be a lovely golf course once the corpses were cleared away. Between that, his gaffe at the Burma Golf Club and his major foot-in-mouth incident with the Iran Club, his position as favourite Uncle was getting pretty tarnished. Turned out that putting the family idiot in charge of deals wasn't a great idea. The manager of the Trump-AmericaFirst golf club was leering over his Wall and making comments that it would be delighted to make a deal with the new Britain Club, if the club lowered its standards. Davis and Theresa had decided that that was a problem for the future and hoped to God that it would be the problem of Uncle Corbyn eventually. The fans of the fairway that bordered Varadkar's land were getting more and more nervous and given the ancient disputes between that part of land and the Ireland fairway, it was in everyone's interests to clear that situation up. However, it was a small fairway, and it might have to be sacrificed for the greater glory of the Britain fairway. No-one was quite sure yet.

And still the stare-off continued, with neither side willing to back down. Barnier was not going to let the Britain family walk out of their obligations, gentleman's agreement or not, nor was he going to stand for members of the Europa being expelled from that part of the green. He was also determined that the Europa would get its golf clubs back. He was also pissed on behalf of Mr. Varadkar, who was making noise about the damage to the value of his land if the Britain family refused to come to an arrangement. The teenagers were still sulking and making rapid plans to move out, having more or less given up on Uncle Corbyn. Davis was sweating, but loudly proclaiming that a deal was just around the corner. Really.

Another unsatisfactory meeting, although in five minutes he'd have to go face the press and tell them how a deal was really very nearly there, while avoiding any details. Again. But for now, he sat in the Europa bar, swirling his cocktail and looking into its depths sadly, as if the Answer might be at the bottom of it.

"It will be the bestest golf club in the world, and all for us," he murmured to himself. Another Tiger Woods bobblehead that for some reason seem to be all over the place, bobbled merrily. At least something agreed with him.

steddyeddy

The EU state the obvious and tell the Tories that they are putting the interests their party above those of NI. Breaking neutrality and siding with the DUP for one.The prime minister was accused of a lack of “care” for the peace process by one senior EU official.

I'm glad someone else sees it.


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/12/eu-says-tories-putting-party-before-interests-northern-ireland

Capt'n Midnight

mickoneill31 wrote: »

It's banal too and easy to pick holes in. But it's funny.

Funny, because for a top business person it is essential that you are in the right golf club because that's where the real deals are done. Simple as.


Sure you can try and join another club like The Donald's but everyone knows that's just a facade and they are only interested in your money.

There's a few pitch and putt courses out there but you've now got to apply to be a member, even though you had associate membership through your old club. And because you've ruffled feathers in the past, not get the discount you were hoping for might be the least of your problems.


And besides just like the stonecutters in any new club you'd be the new member. Only allowed in if everyone agrees and as last in you have least rights, unless you have deep pockets or are dead sound, but everyone knows you don't because of what happened at your previous club.






It's like cancelling SKY and then being surprised when Virgin won't give you a great introductory offer because somehow they got the impression that you might not be a good customer.

steddyeddy

Or it's like leaving the biggest trading market in the world with no trading partners and expecting a good deal without looking after your obligations. I think that highlights the stupidity and danger of this exercise better than a golf game.

First Up

Its like having your GUI card cancelled after you quit your golf club but then rolling up to other courses on Open days expecting to still get the GUI rate.

In fact its like rolling up to clubs looking to pay less than either the Open rate or the standard green fee because they should really really value your custom.

Samaris

steddyeddy wrote: »

Or it's like leaving the biggest trading market in the world with no trading partners and expecting a good deal without looking after your obligations. I think that highlights the stupidity and danger of this exercise better than a golf game.

It is a pretty awful analogy. But that's the issue with trying to represent Brexit as a simple anything (leaving aside that the original golf club story was plain dishonest, even as a dodgy analogy). Leave campaign did it. Davis did it. May did it. Johnson...well, was anyone expecting him to come up with anything intelligent? It's not a bloody golf club, it is a member state pulling out of a major trade alliance that the leaders don't particularly appear to understand.

It's not simple and the stakes are a hell of a lot higher than who gets to play golf (let them eat cake right there!). I wish I could think that Davis et al understood that too.

GalwayMark

They never fully left the empire behind them with the commonwealth of nations hence their disinterest even though Europe is their biggest trading and global security partner. Britain/Greater England needs to realise this isn't the 19th century anymore and if it wants to retain some measure of international power their must be a reassessment of its sordid history at home and abroad plus walking away means Germany is going to be a massive beneficiary in terms of European Power.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU state the obvious and tell the Tories that they are putting the interests their party above those of NI. Breaking neutrality and siding with the DUP for one.The prime minister was accused of a lack of “care” for the peace process by one senior EU official.

I'm glad someone else sees it.


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/12/eu-says-tories-putting-party-before-interests-northern-ireland

I still don't see how the UK expects to square this circle. The response from the spokesperson doesn't really add anything but further confusion.

“The government is committed to avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland,” she added. “As we said in our paper on the subject, the specific solutions to the unique circumstances in Northern Ireland must respect the integrity of the EU single market and customs union, and they must also respect the integrity of the United Kingdom.

“We respect the indivisibility of the four freedoms [the four pillars of EU integration, ranging from free movement of goods to free movement of workers] and that is why, as part of leaving the EU, we are leaving the single market and the customs union.”

They want to avoid a hard border but they want to leave the single market and customs union. They want to respect the integrity of the EU single market but want the integrity of the UK respected as well. I guess they need to have it hammered into them that they cannot achieve all of this at the same time. We are a long way into this whole debacle and its still pie in the sky statements from the UK.

Panrich

Enzokk wrote: »

I still don't see how the UK expects to square this circle. The response from the spokesperson doesn't really add anything but further confusion.



They want to avoid a hard border but they want to leave the single market and customs union. They want to respect the integrity of the EU single market but want the integrity of the UK respected as well. I guess they need to have it hammered into them that they cannot achieve all of this at the same time. We are a long way into this whole debacle and its still pie in the sky statements from the UK.

It's amazing that Brexit with support from the DUP will probably mean a hard border, followed at some point in the not too distant future, a united Ireland.

The only way that this narrative would change is if the UK remain in the single market and customs union, or if the North descends into violence due to the imposition of a hard border.

I think neither of these outcomes are looking likely at present. There seems no prospect on the horizon of a 180 in the UK. In fact, if May is scuppered the more rabid Brexiters seem likely to take control.
If a hard border is implemented, no republican will need to resort to violence in protest. Hard cold economic reality will do their job for them.

blanch152

Panrich wrote: »

It's amazing that Brexit with support from the DUP will probably mean a hard border, followed at some point in the not too distant future, a united Ireland.

The only way that this narrative would change is if the UK remain in the single market and customs union, or if the North descends into violence due to the imposition of a hard border.

I think neither of these outcomes are looking likely at present. There seems no prospect on the horizon of a 180 in the UK. In fact, if May is scuppered the more rabid Brexiters seem likely to take control.
If a hard border is implemented, no republican will need to resort to violence in protest. Hard cold economic reality will do their job for them.

Brexit is likely to be followed by a hard border, then within five years, it will be followed by UK accession to the EEA.

Nody

blanch152 wrote: »

Brexit is likely to be followed by a hard border, then within five years, it will be followed by UK accession to the EEA.

Far to fast; at least a decade more likely closer to two. They need not only to get properly hammered from Brexit, do a small recovery, realize the trade deals they are being offered take years if not decades and are **** but still signed because they got nothing else. Then said TDs need to kick in to move more manufacturing and job out of UK and cause more hardship before the local population would be ready for a pro EEA/EU party line to win.

flutered

Zerbini Blewitt wrote: »

So the plan of one Brexiter faction for a ‘successful’ Brexit is to force the lower (approx) 75% of the UK labour force to compete with current Indian & Chinese working conditions, pay & living conditions (2012 Book review here).

The majority in Britain live their lives an order of magnitude poorer & more precarious (in effect 21st century Dickensian) - that is, for the ones that have jobs - and the rich get richer. What's not to like :rolleyes:

For this faction of Walter Mitty Tories* & murky business figures – direct labour competition with China/India is their brainwave of how to deal with Britains productivity problem. This is what Brexit is all about for them.

They are not stupid (but they are malevolent, out of touch fantastists). Its not clear at this point if they realise Britain must get at a minimum a “no-deal" deal as mentioned earlier. Of course not having a hard border in Ireland is not even an afterthought in their musings.

---

---

*Kwasi Kwarteng, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Chris Skidmore and Elizabeth Truss

this is an example of how the lower orders should be treated in a post brexit uk, https://uk.news.yahoo.com/sir-james-dyson-apos-vision-130123678.html

flutered

Sand wrote: »

I think the key thing is the negotiations have not yet started. Phase 1 is simply discussing the difficulties caused by Brexit, and working as a team to resolve them. How should citizens of the UK and EU suddenly trapped by Brexit behind foreign borders be treated? How will the UK and the EU ensure the spirit and the terms of the GFA are respected? Will the UK honour the undertakings it made as part of the EU or will it dishonour them?

This is not a negotiation where each side can walk away no worse off than before they sat down to talk. It is problem solving where if solutions are not found, one side will be much worse off than before. The UK ought to be looking to demonstrate good faith here, to prepare a positive environment for future negotiations between the EU and the UK as third country. Those negotiations may take the best part of a decade, but they wont even start if the UK dishonours it obligations and demonstrates itself to be a dishonest and reckless partner.

the uk are not really interested, they are looking for a fall guy/guys, something that always readily advailable even if they are pie in the sky

flutered

Nody wrote: »

The problem is you're approaching this based on facts which are recognised world wide with exception of UK. In the UK not only does UK have the stronger hand ("They need us more than we need them"; "German car manufacturers will put pressure on Merkel"; "They need London's market for funding"; Without us there will be a impossible big hole to fill in their budget" etc.) but add in to this the British wit and intelligence of being able to run circles around the EU negotiation team (We'll do a chicken race with the no deal brexit and they will come running to us with what ever we want because we got bigger cahones) and EU leaders in general due to their national courage (Stiff upper lip! Tally ho! Remember our British Empire and spirit!). Besides EU there's a whole empire (even if no longer under our control) that UK can take up trade deals again as their Queen is the Queen of the Commonwealth after all; those other countries will fall in line with the wishes of the Queen and all other countries will simply throw open the doors for UK because, well, it's the UK! World's most famous nation for their innovation, science, food, culture etc.

Now to you and me that's lunatic fantasy country but for a significant part of the British ruling party and elite that's their actual beliefs. That is what makes the whole thing looks so silly from the outside; we're having two very different world views colliding and both think they are right. In the end I got a feeling that if all countries and facts point in one direction but one country thinks it's all wrong I know which side I'd like to be on. In many ways it's also reflected in the debate; Remainers will bring up actual facts, laws and regulations to show the impact while Brexiteers will hand wave it away and talk about emotions (freedom, setting our own rules etc.) and very high level generic pictures without any details or facts behind them.

using the queen as an example of getting things done is slowly drifting away, her son and heir owns cornwall, where crops are rotting and rodents increasing in a massive way, another year of this and the rodent problem will be out of control, with all its issues

Sam Russell

We have heard no more about the missing £490 billion pounds, lost down the back of the sofa.

If they are not bothered to track down the missing half a trillion pounds, why are they bothered about whether the EU want €30 billion or €60 billion? Surely the benefit of moving onto trade talks would be worth it - sure they could print the money.

solodeogloria

Sam Russell wrote: »

We have heard no more about the missing £490 billion pounds, lost down the back of the sofa.

If they are not bothered to track down the missing half a trillion pounds, why are they bothered about whether the EU want €30 billion or €60 billion? Surely the benefit of moving onto trade talks would be worth it - sure they could print the money.

Good evening!

I commented on it here linking to an article explaining it in the context of £21 trillion in UK assets and liabilities. It's actually a pretty small adjustment.

Moreover these assets and liabilities aren't public funds so I don't know why you are treating them as such.

Of course the UK should be bothered about what it dues with taxpayers money.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

We have heard no more about the missing £490 billion pounds, lost down the back of the sofa.

It's no more lost than the drop in house prices.

The bricks and mortar in a persons home are still the same even if those with foreign currency can buy then at a substantially discounted price compared to before the vote.

Capt'n Midnight

blanch152 wrote: »

Brexit is likely to be followed by a hard border, then within five years, it will be followed by UK accession to the EEA.

The Swiss got concessions because they were merging towards fuller membership. So the UK won't be getting those.

The UK has a much greater population than the EFTA countries so very unlikely they'd be let join, so it would have to be a separate entry mechanism to EFTA. Which might not please the EFTA members so besides they can't get as good a deal as the EFTA , so no Norway deal.

Note that only sovereign states can join the EFTA so nether Scotland nor NI could as long as they are part of the UK


Turkey is in the customs union, but they have to accept all the EU trade deals.

Jim2007

blanch152 wrote: »

followed by UK accession to the EEA.

They can't join the EEA, they need to join EFTA to take advantage of the EEA and the chances of the small current member states agreeing to having a major economy and a trouble maker change the nature of EFTA are not very high.

Peregrinus

Jim2007 wrote: »

They can't join the EEA, they need to join EFTA to take advantage of the EEA and the chances of the small current member states agreeing to having a major economy and a trouble maker change the nature of EFTA are not very high.

I wouldn't assume so. The EFTA represents the interests of those states which participate in the Single Market but do not wish to participate in the Union. It's a pretty small outfit, as you rightly point out, and it would be considerably beefed up by the addition of a regionally-significant economy such as the UK; they might then be able to drive a slightly harder bargain with the EU on the terms they get in the Single Market as non-EU Member States.

Plus, I don't think the EU would take too kindly to the likes of Norway or Leichtenstein attempting to (in effect) wield a veto over who can, and who cannot, participate in the Single Market. So if the UK wanted in, and the EU wanted them in, there would be a price to be paid if EFTA simply refused.

It's all hypothetical at the moment, obviously, but if the UK ever did want to re-enter the single market via EFTA, I think it the attitude of other EFTA members would be very much influenced by their perception of how keen the British were. If there were to be a sense that the UK establishment actually believed that economic integration without political union was a good thing for the UK, and they were genuinely enthusiastic about the project, and had interests which aligned will with those of other EFTA member states - then, yes, I could see the UK being welcomed into EFTA.

Jim2007

Peregrinus wrote: »

I wouldn't assume so.

Then don't! Go read the treaties and the agreements.

Peregrinus

Jim2007 wrote: »

Then don't! Go read the treaties and the agreements.

They don't what?

Samaris

Sam Russell wrote: »

We have heard no more about the missing £490 billion pounds, lost down the back of the sofa.

If they are not bothered to track down the missing half a trillion pounds, why are they bothered about whether the EU want €30 billion or €60 billion? Surely the benefit of moving onto trade talks would be worth it - sure they could print the money.

I know that's snark rather than a serious suggestion, but the EU saw currency issues in advance and have put in the condition that the money is paid in euros . Sensible of them given the state of £Sterling!

View

Accession as an EFTA member to the EEA would require the UK to accept the Four Freedoms (including FoM) with all EEA/EFTA/EU member states. In addition it would mean the UK accepting all “EEA directives” - which are “EU directives with application to the EEA” - while having no votes on them. Neither of these are politically likely in today’s UK.

Lastly, politically speaking, the EU member states are highly unlikely to agree to EFTA being “beefed up” as an alternative to the EU. If another of the existing EFTA members leave it and join the EU, EFTA will basically be defunct and the remainder of it will probably be absorbed by the EU via some sort of special deal which gives EU membership with various opt-outs.

Peregrinus

I agree that, as matters stand right now, we're a long way from the UK even thinking about applying for EFTA membership. A great deal would have to change before this would be in the realm of the possible.

But, I have to point out, if the situation were to arise, the question of the EU's agreement to the UK joining EFTA would not arise. To join EFTA, the UK would need the agreement of the existing EFTA members, but not that of the EU, which is not a member.

However, joining EFTA doesn't automatically bring Single Market membership. That's based on an agreement between the EU and the state concerned - there are separate agreements for Norway, Iceland, etc, It's just that all the existing agreements are with EFTA member states and make use of EFTA structures (like the EFTA court) and its very unlikely that the EU would be willing to make a Single Market agreement with a state that wasn't in EFTA and wasn't intending to join it. What it comes down to is that EFTA membership is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for Single Market participation from outside the EU.

blanch152

View wrote: »

Accession as an EFTA member to the EEA would require the UK to accept the Four Freedoms (including FoM) with all EEA/EFTA/EU member states. In addition it would mean the UK accepting all “EEA directives” - which are “EU directives with application to the EEA” - while having no votes on them. Neither of these are politically likely in today’s UK.

Lastly, politically speaking, the EU member states are highly unlikely to agree to EFTA being “beefed up” as an alternative to the EU. If another of the existing EFTA members leave it and join the EU, EFTA will basically be defunct and the remainder of it will probably be absorbed by the EU via some sort of special deal which gives EU membership with various opt-outs.

Of course they are not politically likely in today's UK, but my suggestion that it would happen wasn't based on today's UK, it was based on a post-Brexit UK that had been outside the EU for five years with no deal at all. That will be a very very changed UK.