Brexit discussion thread II

Sam Russell

Sand wrote: »

Wouldn't the main challenge be getting the trailers on and off the ferry? I pretend to have no knowledge on this, but loading is going to be easier when its drive on, drive off rather than drive on, unhitch, manoeuvre the tractor out and then on the other side manoeuvre the tractor in, hitch the trailer, drive out while dodging all the other tractors trying to reverse in and hitch up? It could significantly increase the time taken at least.

They have special tractor units to do exactly that. [I too am not an expert, but I have watched this stuff while waiting to board]. The cab of the tractor can pivot to face both directions, and have special fittings to make lifting and dropping trailers much easier, after all they are only travelling at a little over walking pace, plus the drivers of these units do this all day long and are quite expert at it.

Also, the trailers take up less room without the tractor unit, so more units will fit.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

They have special tractor units to do exactly that. [I too am not an expert, but I have watched this stuff while waiting to board]. The cab of the tractor can pivot to face both directions, and have special fittings to make lifting and dropping trailers much easier, after all they are only travelling at a little over walking pace, plus the drivers of these units do this all day long and are quite expert at it.

Also, the trailers take up less room without the tractor unit, so more units will fit.

There's these things called container ships...

flaneur

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's these things called container ships...

There’s also long term access to European high speed electric rail freight which could reduce our carbon footprint.

Schorpio

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

A good article on the Guardian today highlighting a few people who are willing to admit that they regret voting Leave (fair play - a hard thing to do).

As usual - an instant comment firestorm under the article, but I genuinely liked this one -

nutzlos1Politiker
So in a week where brexit negotiators were again reminded by Mr Barnier of what is required to make any progress in the initial divorce settlement (for the 100th time) It's like talking to a very small dim child, Mr Barnier must have the patience of a saint.

The first European agencies announced their leaving the UK, the EMA going to Amsterdam, and the EBA going to Paris.
The dopey maybot upped the offer to the EU for leaving to £40 billion, (This wasn't on Black Friday, and the EU are not discounting what the UK owes) So the deal will be rejected until the UK government start to take their commitments seriously and makes a realistic offer.
The UK will not have a judge on the bench of the international court of justice for the first time in its 71-year history, partly due to Boris Johnsons incompetence on the world stage and his continual insults to foreign countries.
The universities are facing a real problem as 5,000 lecturers are planning on returning to the EU taking their research and development funding with them, this is a major blow Losing the highly regarded lecturers will be devastating to the students who require stimulus and encouragement to develop their own intellect, but to lose the research and development that is the future for any progressive country is catastrophic.
The opinions voiced by EU ministers and senior officials to Irish diplomats reflect widespread pessimism and even scorn about the British government’s negotiating position.
Some EU figures talk of “chaos” in the British government. It is seemingly more likely that Gibraltar will become a part of Spain, (only 4% of the 26,000 population voted to leave the EU) and the government is doing nothing to block this. Spain believes Gibraltar will now fall out of the single market on 29 March 2019. Gibraltar’s prime minister, Fabian Picardo, has previously suggested that a hard Brexit would pose an “existential threat”.
During Wednesday’s Budget, Philip Hammond, in a series of statements aimed at highlighting the strength and health of the British economy, admitted that the country has slipped to sixth spot, trailing France.
EU cancels Britain’s hosting of European capital of culture. As the uk will no longer be a member of the EU, will not be a member of the EEA and is not a country wishing to join the EU (the three qualifications for being included in the Capital of Culture nominations) by 2019.
The NI and GFA are in turmoil over the border issues and things will only get worse.
And today UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote.
All this and the government are now saying be prepared for 10 to 20 years of wage freezes and recession
Come on Brexiters tell me is this really what you voted for and all this good news was in just ONE week.
Now perhaps you realise just what damage you have caused the country, but I doubt it.

First Up

kowtow wrote:

I think we need to be very careful as well that any "compensation" or special assistance we receive to ameliorate Brexit doesn't come with expensive long term strings attached - implicitly or explicitly. There's little point building fantastic new export routes for goods from Ireland only to lose the manufacturers as a consequence of tax changes a few years down the line.

Any "compensation" would be in the form of investment in infrastructure at ports, not subsidies for transport of freight.

flaneur

It would likely be done under the TEN-T programme (Trans European Networks) as the UK leaving creates a significant disruption to those corridors.

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/infrastructure/tentec/tentec-portal/site/index_en.htm

You have to remember that free-flowing transport / movement of goods is one of the key reasons for the EU to exist at all. So, this is a very fundamental issue for it to tackle around Brexit.

It would simply be seen as part of pan-EU infrastructure to support the broader EU, not as specific aid to Ireland really.

There's an over-simplistic view of EU money as 'aid'. That's not really how the EU tends to see it. It's more about putting the ground work in place to ensure that the broader EU economy works well. That includes a lot of the money that's gone into economies to bring them up to speed. A prosperous Estonia or Poland or Portugal is basically good for everyone in the EU as it means more money flowing around, more opportunities, etc etc.

The UK right (and also some other right leaning political parties in Germany etc) narrative tends to see this as "giving money to countries as aid". The European narrative is more "we're all in this together".

The logic is that the countries you're putting money into now as net recipients, eventually become net contributors. That has been the case in Ireland for example.

In may ways, I think the UK's jingoism and vitriol no longer being part of the EU is not necessarily a bad thing as maybe the rest of us can get on with actually being nice to each other and not treating each other as enemies. I think the whole rhetoric that's spewed, largely from the British tabloids, has been utterly toxic bile mostly and has done a lot of damage, way beyond the UK.

I'm not even saying that the EU should go towards some federalist approach, but just that it has a lot of benefits as well as quit a few hitches and issues that need to be ironed out, but it's far from the evil monster that's painted in the UK media a lot of the time. It's a real case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater in Britain at the moment.

First Up

flaneur wrote:

It would simply be seen as part of pan-EU infrastructure to support the broader EU, not as specific aid to Ireland really.

Correct and well justified in that context.

Looking likely too as Arlene is insisting that NI goes down with the ship.

ambro25

Schorpio wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

A good article on the Guardian today highlighting a few people who are willing to admit that they regret voting Leave (fair play - a hard thing to do).

As usual - an instant comment firestorm under the article, but I genuinely liked this one -

nutzlos1Politiker
So in a week where brexit negotiators were again reminded by Mr Barnier of what is required to make any progress in the initial divorce settlement (for the 100th time) It's like talking to a very small dim child, Mr Barnier must have the patience of a saint.

The first European agencies announced their leaving the UK, the EMA going to Amsterdam, and the EBA going to Paris.
The dopey maybot upped the offer to the EU for leaving to £40 billion, (This wasn't on Black Friday, and the EU are not discounting what the UK owes) So the deal will be rejected until the UK government start to take their commitments seriously and makes a realistic offer.
The UK will not have a judge on the bench of the international court of justice for the first time in its 71-year history, partly due to Boris Johnsons incompetence on the world stage and his continual insults to foreign countries.
The universities are facing a real problem as 5,000 lecturers are planning on returning to the EU taking their research and development funding with them, this is a major blow Losing the highly regarded lecturers will be devastating to the students who require stimulus and encouragement to develop their own intellect, but to lose the research and development that is the future for any progressive country is catastrophic.
The opinions voiced by EU ministers and senior officials to Irish diplomats reflect widespread pessimism and even scorn about the British government’s negotiating position.
Some EU figures talk of “chaos” in the British government. It is seemingly more likely that Gibraltar will become a part of Spain, (only 4% of the 26,000 population voted to leave the EU) and the government is doing nothing to block this. Spain believes Gibraltar will now fall out of the single market on 29 March 2019. Gibraltar’s prime minister, Fabian Picardo, has previously suggested that a hard Brexit would pose an “existential threat”.
During Wednesday’s Budget, Philip Hammond, in a series of statements aimed at highlighting the strength and health of the British economy, admitted that the country has slipped to sixth spot, trailing France.
EU cancels Britain’s hosting of European capital of culture. As the uk will no longer be a member of the EU, will not be a member of the EEA and is not a country wishing to join the EU (the three qualifications for being included in the Capital of Culture nominations) by 2019.
The NI and GFA are in turmoil over the border issues and things will only get worse.
And today UK consumer confidence hits lowest level since Brexit vote.
All this and the government are now saying be prepared for 10 to 20 years of wage freezes and recession
Come on Brexiters tell me is this really what you voted for and all this good news was in just ONE week.
Now perhaps you realise just what damage you have caused the country, but I doubt it.

I handed in my notice of resignation on Friday late afternoon, to round that week up.

That should clinch it :pac:

(I'm Brexoding full-on, with family in tow)

Capt'n Midnight

Since the EU will be smaller after Brexit, the quotas that other countries get for importing stuff into the EU will be getting smaller too. And the other countries aren't too happy with that.

So yeah I can see all those countries giving the UK the best deals ever :rolleyes:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42121442

Australia has criticised the UK's post-Brexit trade plans to split quotas of food imports from around the world.
...
Dave Harrison, from Beef and Lamb New Zealand, agreed that its finances could be hit hard if they were not allowed to choose where to import more or less of their products.
...
The US, Brazil and Canada are also said to have their doubts about the new deal, believing it could hit them financially.

Nody

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Since the EU will be smaller after Brexit, the quotas that other countries get for importing stuff into the EU will be getting smaller too. And the other countries aren't too happy with that.

So yeah I can see all those countries giving the UK the best deals ever :rolleyes:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42121442

It is much more fun than that; UK are taking on quotas from existing FTAs negotiated on their behalf but UK don't have a FTA back on the export side. So UK will now to go to for example Australia with a fixed qouta of the imports already done and try to negotiate a FTA which will further increase those quotas (because as far as Australia will be concerned they will ask for at least equal to equal parity in a FTA if not more). And since they now got a quota of sheep why not go for a new area that UK did not allow earlier? Best FTA eva!

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's these things called container ships...

No. RoRo operate this system so that trucks can drop the trailer and go, leaving the port operator to put the trailer on board and off the other end. Sometimes it is the original driver that drops the trailer, but it can be the port operator. It is a bit like a serviced wash at a launderette, but without the soap,

Containers use a completely different system, requiring cranes etc. A much slower operation.

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

No. RoRo operate this system so that trucks can drop the trailer and go, leaving the port operator to put the trailer on board and off the other end. Sometimes it is the original driver that drops the trailer, but it can be the port operator. It is a bit like a serviced wash at a launderette, but without the soap,

Containers use a completely different system, requiring cranes etc. A much slower operation.

I don't think taking a container from a truck with a crane and transfering to the ship is slower at all. Those crane drivers can move containers across at a phenomenal rate.

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

There's already a number of container routes between Ireland and France but they need volume to be viable and they are not as flexible or frequent as the R/O, R/O options.

But if the UK makes as big a balls of it as seems likely there could well be scope for extra routes/sailings because traffic transiting through the UK will be decimated. I don't see Holyhead etc getting their act together sufficiently or quickly enough to be able to handle non-EU traffic to the necessary standard.

Water John

Through traffic of the UK with sealed containers should have little or no delay, hopefully.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Through traffic of the UK with sealed containers should have little or no delay, hopefully.

Only if they can get through the congestion of the UK HGVs queues on the motorways. Do you think the UK police will assist them through the chaos?

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

I don't think taking a container from a truck with a crane and transfering to the ship is slower at all. Those crane drivers can move containers across at a phenomenal rate.

If we do see a major shift to French routes I also believe it will eventually result in more containerisation simply because you can stack containers and one ship can carry many multiples of a ferry.

The whole point of RORO is it is quick to load and quick to unload. If a container is at the bottom of a pile, it cannot be quick. A RORO ship can empty in 30 mins, with the first trucks already on route after 10 mins. That could not happen with a container ship. Just look at them empty out of Dublin docks - all gone in a flash.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote:

The whole point of RORO is it is quick to load and quick to unload. If a container is at the bottom of a pile, it cannot be quick. A RORO ship can empty in 30 mins, with the first trucks already on route after 10 mins. That could not happen with a container ship. Just look at them empty out of Dublin docks - all gone in a flash.

And container ships need specialist equipment to load/unload. Thats why Felixtowe and Rotterdam take a lot of the container traffic. Holyhead or Stranraer are not in that game.

Water John

The Mail on Sunday carrying a headline re: Johnson and Gove, Russian link.

Inquitus

Water John wrote: »

The Mail on Sunday carrying a headline re: Johnson and Gove, Russian link.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5117547/Putins-link-Boris-Goves-Brexit-coup-revealed.html

LeinsterDub

Inquitus wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5117547/Putins-link-Boris-Goves-Brexit-coup-revealed.html

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

Inquitus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

I'll only read the Guardian out of all the rags over there, just because the article was mentioned in the post above I braved the Daily Xenophobia to have a look!

flaneur

FYP: it’s the Daily Hail.

Calina

IIRC the Mail on Sunday had a different editorial view on Brexit to the Daily Mail pre-referendum. But I am not sure that matters much since they share a website.

The interesting question here is how this piece might impact public opinion in the UK, in particular as both the Sun and the Express sites have picked up the story.

Leonard Hofstadter

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'll wait for an actual newspaper to report it

The Mail on Sunday strongly backed (and continues to back) Remain - it may be the same ownership but it's a completely different newspaper to the weekday version (thankfully).

steddyeddy

The Irish Republic's EU commissioner has said Dublin will "play tough to the end" over its threat to veto Brexit talks moving on to discuss trade. Ireland seems to be playing a blinder on this. One guy over here (England) asked me which side Ireland's on in this. Our own surprisingly enough.


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-42126687.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/ireland-threat-to-veto-brexit-trade-talks-over-border-issue-11144679

steddyeddy

Johnson and Johnson, a huge pharma company have pulled plans for a major UK research centre due to Brexit concerns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/25/johnson-johnson-pulls-plan-first-uk-research-centre/

Capt'n Midnight

Phil Hogan on why a FTA on it's own isn't much use for this Island or even the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/phil-hogan-ireland-eu-commissioner-brexit-chaos

“I continue to be amazed at the blind faith that some in London place in theoretical future free trade agreements. First, the best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in the single market. This fact is simply not understood in the UK. Most real costs to cross-border business today are not tariffs – they are about standards, about customs procedures, about red tape. These are solved by the single market, but not in an FTA.”

This is a nice summation of how the UK's future trade talks will go. Nothing we haven't heard already, car crash stuff.

Hogan warned Britain may struggle to keep the 59 trade deals it now has through the EU on the same terms. “The UK would be running to stand still,” he said. “When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed around the way the EU – with currently more than eight times the UK population – will never be.

“The US have already started their attack on standards, so chlorine chicken and hormone beef for the British Sunday roast post-Brexit? India will insist on visas that the UK can never give. Australia and New Zealand are a long way away and of very limited economic interest. And any deal with China will be a one-way street in terms of costs and benefits for the UK.”

Britain’s former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers

“The internal market is an extraordinarily complex international law construct that simply doesn’t work in a way that permits the type of options that the current government is pushing for,”
...
We will not have reached a new equilibrium in British economics and politics until 2030.”

2030 that's a lot of uncertainty. How many investors know that , how many expansion plans will be put on hold ?


Project Fear from the London School of Economics

Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.

First Up

All blindingly obvious to anyone who understands how international trade and supply chains work but it seems to be beyond the grasp of the Brexiteers.

The bit they fail to understand is how fine the margins are in competitiveness. A delay of hours at a border can knock you out of the game but the biggest problem is uncertainty. Companies all over the world are looking at their exposure to trade barriers with the UK and making contingency plans to find alternatives.

The bit about the UK's trade "deals" is especially pathetic. The Brexiteer line about negotiating all these wonderful new terms is jaw-droppingly niaive but continues to be trotted out, including by some posters here.

Igotadose

steddyeddy wrote: »

Johnson and Johnson, a huge pharma company have pulled plans for a major UK research centre due to Brexit concerns.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/25/johnson-johnson-pulls-plan-first-uk-research-centre/

I find this interesting as the current ambassador to the Court of St. James is Woody Johnson, the Johnson&Johnson heir. Considering the access he would have to the corridors of power in the UK, one wonders what he's learned that got him to agree to not do this investment.... Of course he's separated from his business interests since taking the job (wink, wink).

Leroy42

I also read that the .4% reduction in growth forecasts that were released as part of the budget are based on benign outcome to the Brexit talks.

What would be the impact from a no deal outcome? It can't be better, but how much worse and would even that cause the Brexiteers to pause?

Samaris

Leroy42 wrote: »

I also read that the .4% reduction in growth forecasts that were released as part of the budget are based on benign outcome to the Brexit talks.

What would be the impact from a no deal outcome? It can't be better, but how much worse and would even that cause the Brexiteers to pause?

It's all become so bitter and divided that it would take a seismic shock that actually impacts voters individually to cause a reassessment. John Spodguy actually losing his job because the company has folded/is moving to Europe sort of thing might change his mind. By the time those shocks are being felt at a large enough scale for "Bregret" to take place, it'll be too late.

Doesn't help that Remain is angry and impotent and releases tension by ranting about Brexiters. I don't blame them, mind. They have every reason to be raging as the country starts to suffer for the sake of something they never agreed with and in the face of how it's taling place. But it takes serious guts to be able to admit in the face of ridicule that one has been wrong about a massive ideological decision, especially when the stakes are so high and there is plenty of media trying to force on the traitors/mutineers/everything will be lovely in the Brexit rosegarden views.

Unfortunately, the above media opinion-makers are far more likely to switch blame for everything that goes wrong to a punitive Europe and an obdurate Ireland rather than admit any fault in the matter. Or a government, especially if it's Labour by then.

Water John

Thanks for providing the link, Inquitus. The MOS in both the UK and Ireland is a very diff animal than the Daily. Both have an excellent record on well researched articles and exposes. for example, the Ireland MOS did a lot of good coverage on IW.
Read the article fully. You'd think in the last few weeks that Johnson himself penned the letter. The finger is now being pointed to a real vipers nest.

kowtow

A long read the article below, but a very interesting and objective insight into the EU and UK politics which brought the referendum about, in a lecture from David Cameron's then personal representative at the EU. He deals in detail with the difference of approach to the EU between the Eurozone nations and others, exemplified by the UK, and particularly with the breakdown in trust within the EU that came about with the urgent need for measures like the Fiscal Compact.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-inside-story-of-how-david-cameron-drove-britain-to-brexit

ancapailldorcha

Samaris wrote: »

It's all become so bitter and divided that it would take a seismic shock that actually impacts voters individually to cause a reassessment. John Spodguy actually losing his job because the company has folded/is moving to Europe sort of thing might change his mind. By the time those shocks are being felt at a large enough scale for "Bregret" to take place, it'll be too late.

Conor Gearty of the LSE has just likened Brexit to Vietnam:

Conor Gearty, LSE wrote:

Brexit is Britain’s Vietnam: every rational person knows it is not going well, but no one with authority seems able to say so.

He makes the case for it in this blog entry which is well worth a read.

Leroy42

I see Liam Fox has come out and stated that NI border issues will not be agreed until after Trade Talks are concluded.

1st off, not sure why anybody would ask him anything, he clearly has no idea what is going on.
2nd, why would you actively inflame the situation? The EU has already stated that this is part of Phase 1, a process that the UK already agreed to.

Are we to take it that this is all part of some grand negotiation tactic by the UK, to keep the EU on its toes? Because I can only really see it as driving the complete loss of trust.

This line in particular I think is very telling;

“We can't get a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state."

Fox said.

Or to put it another way, they have no idea what will happen until they work out the deal they get, then all things will be considered.

If I was the DUP that would be making me very nervous. That can be interpreted as saying that depending on the outcome of the deal they get them may well be inclined to give up NI border and thus allow NI to remain in the CU.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Liam Fox has come out and stated that NI border issues will not be agreed until after Trade Talks are concluded.

1st off, not sure why anybody would ask him anything, he clearly has no idea what is going on.
2nd, why would you actively inflame the situation? The EU has already stated that this is part of Phase 1, a process that the UK already agreed to.

Are we to take it that this is all part of some grand negotiation tactic by the UK, to keep the EU on its toes? Because I can only really see it as driving the complete loss of trust.

This line in particular I think is very telling;

Fox said.

Or to put it another way, they have no idea what will happen until they work out the deal they get, then all things will be considered.

If I was the DUP that would be making me very nervous. That can be interpreted as saying that depending on the outcome of the deal they get them may well be inclined to give up NI border and thus allow NI to remain in the CU.

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

ancapailldorcha

Having rather callously referred to EU migrants resident in the UK as "bargaining chips", I'm wondering if is isn't someone around who could be a little more diplomatic.

All the EU has to do is wait for the timer to expire. That's it. It'll hurt but so will giving the UK unfettered access to the single market without financial contributions, regulations or the four freedoms.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

Regrettably, it seems to represent a continuation of the "have cake and eat it" strategy. I was rather hoping that these silly games would have been done away with by now.

A Dub in Glasgo

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

Think I might even have to vote Labour in that scenario. That's just petty hibernophobia right there, something I was hoping would remain buried in the past.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

There's the problem. The Tories can't even agree on what they want so how can the British government have a position? The problem started when the Brexiteers won a referendum that they hadn't expected to win. What is happening now is that the lies they told during the Leave campaign are being exposed. You can't build a credible negotiating position on wishful thinking and lies.

solodeogloria

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

I won't permit the nonsense that British people somehow want to harm me as an Irish person when there's no evidence at all to suggest this.

The opposite is true. I've been made very welcome here and I've got no doubt that will continue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A Dub in Glasgo

This bit from Fox on Sky concerned me

"We have always had exceptions for Ireland - whether it's in our voting rights, our rights of residence in the UK, we have always accepted a certain asymmetry and that will have to be part of whatever agreement we come to with the European Union but we can't come to a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state."

Capt'n Midnight

First Up wrote: »

All blindingly obvious to anyone who understands how international trade and supply chains work but it seems to be beyond the grasp of the Brexiteers.

The bit they fail to understand is how fine the margins are in competitiveness. A delay of hours at a border can knock you out of the game but the biggest problem is uncertainty. Companies all over the world are looking at their exposure to trade barriers with the UK and making contingency plans to find alternatives.

Examples here from the car industry. This isn't hand waving, these are specific and costed. It's almost as if they are planning ahead for Brexit, unlike the UK Govt.

https://www.ft.com/content/4f6907d8-c58b-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656
Honda - a 15 minute delay at customs at Dover will cost them £850,000
Ford - engines exported from Dagenham to Germany for Fiesta cars would require 20,000 separate declarations
Vauxhall - tens of millions in additional costs, (a 10% tariff to the Eu would cost it hundreds of millions)
Honda - only 600 UK companies are recognised as “authorised economic operators” compared to 5,000 in Germany. AEO is necessary to speed up going customs so expect a backlog in getting companies registered.

The bit about the UK's trade "deals" is especially pathetic. The Brexiteer line about negotiating all these wonderful new terms is jaw-droppingly niaive but continues to be trotted out, including by some posters here.

Again a reminder that because the quotas will be split between the UK and the EU , the countries that use those quotas to export to the EU will be affected by Brexit.

If they have to appease those countries then by definition they won't be able to get a new deal as good as the one they have under the EU.



Has anyone suggested any specific deal the UK could get with any country on better conditions than they already enjoy by being in the EU ?

An Claidheamh

flaneur wrote: »

It seems even The Guardian can manage to completely misrepresent the situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/24/irish-border-hard-brexit-ireland#comment-108742628



Facts don't seem to enter into the debate in the UK at all. Just imagine stuff and make it up!

They seem to think the Republic is utterly dependent on the UK for access to the outside world ...
If anything Northern Ireland's highly dependent on access to Dublin Airport and Dublin Port ro-ro and container freight as well as Rosslare for ro-ro and possibly Cork for continental container cargo.

Mind boggling ignorance of Ireland in the UK media.

Imagine Apple or Guinness moving to Larne because they must export from British approved places to the outside world. It's laughable!

It's mentioned in Guardian comments this bizarre statement.

It's also mentioned that this writer apparently supported Brexit.

Go figure.

Leroy42

True, PM, but why is nobody, apart from the likes of Anna Soubry, not calling it out for that it is.

Look at some of the media in the UK. They are rabid in their desire to leave. Over the weekend we have the leader of the DUP telling the Taoiseach to mind his own business (despite the fact that that is exactly what he is doing) and the deputy leader calling Leo and Simon Cowboys.

I agree that the result was unexpected, by all sides, but that doesn't explain the performance since then. What possible good can Liam Fox think he will have by jumping in at this stage? Why are the people in the UK simply accepting this carry on?

An Claidheamh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ruth Dudley Edwards starts out in a reasonable fashion, highlighting Kenny's political negotiations after the referendum result, improved cross-border relations post-GFA, and Ireland's liberalisation in recent decades. Unfortunately, she then seems to consider Coveney as a rabid nationalist, cosies up to Ray Bassett, and advocates a nebulous "free trade Brexit" between Ireland and the UK:

https://amp.ft.com/content/eabdd85c-d12b-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

She's a nut who made a name for herself as a pseudo-expert in Britain as she's a British loyalist sympathiser.

She thinks she's a Brit.

Real loony.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

He is right that it complicates the trade talks, not that it cannot be solved though. Too bad they already agreed that this needs to be solved before they can start trade talks. Tough luck indeed.

Anthracite

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

We want a good deal too, for Ireland and the EU. The UK has decided it can do better on its own, so let them dig their own hole.