Brexit discussion thread II

Schorpio

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

It is possible that Brexit can be implemented badly. I.E the Government not achieving a trade deal with the EU and not expanding trading relationships elsewhere but this wouldn't make me conclude that Brexit should be stopped. The UK isn't compatible with EU membership. It seems to go against the overriding political philosophy here.

I find a lot of the shibboleths on this thread interesting. You can't be Irish if you do X or you must think this if you're Irish. This is of course a highly flawed way of thinking.

I think you've hit the nail on the head of why a lot of people get frustrated when talking to Leave supporters. Your post states that a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit. That sort of mentality doesn't lend itself to any sort of meaningful discussion. It essentially means that there is nothing anyone can say. nothing of significance that can happen, which would change your mindset. It's an entirely closed mentality.

Regarding my mention of you being Irish and the DUP - I wasn't actually referring to any of the DUP's policies, nor was I championing Sinn Fein. What I meant was that, the Irish and UK governments are supposed to be the mediators in NI, and it's bad for NI when one of the mediators now depends on the party on one side of the debate. I would say the exact same about SF getting into power down here. But anyway, different topic!

steddyeddy

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

They could resolve it if NI stayed in the single market, but the DUP have May's ear and won't stand for it.

flaneur

Enzokk wrote: »

Sure, and the UK can decide who they allow into their country at their own will, but I don't know how someone can ask the country to take back control of their borders if they have an open border. There is passport/ID checks when you arrive in Ireland from the UK, but none when you travel the other way. That is not taking back control and for me its just a phrase used to justify leaving the EU by any means and by any reason.

My concern is that we'll get an ultimatum of either losing the CTA or restricting access to Ireland for EU nationals, which would breech the treaties.

Unless we can get the UK to sign a binding treaty with Ireland as a bilateral on this, we are always going to be at the whim of whoever's in No 10 and the mood at Westminster.

GalwayMark

flaneur wrote: »

My concern is that we'll get an ultimatum of either losing the CTA or restricting access to Ireland for EU nationals, which would breech the treaties.

I'd rather lose the CTA since I don't want to be stuck with the brextremist losers.

flaneur

GalwayMark wrote: »

I'd rather lose the CTA since I don't want to be stuck with the brextremist losers.

So far, it hasn't come to that.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Less of the name calling please.

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Nobody said that free movement of Irish citizens under the CTA would end during the referendum campaign or now. The Government have been clear they intend for this to continue.

Inventing problems that don't exist isn't helpful. If anyone isn't sure in respect to what is being proposed I'd advise them to read the documents that have been published.

The UK has also been clear that free travel from the EU will continue. Freedom of movement for work without a visa will end. The UK Border Force will enforce this in the same way as it enforces other visa waivers for travel. Deportation will be issued for those who overstay and violate the terms of their visa.

Muddying the waters and saying that the Government haven't been clear when they have stated all these things is dishonest at best.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

How do you know Pavel from Poland has overstayed when he arrived via Dublin and the CTA and his entry into the UK was never documented?

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

There are lots of opportunities for me and I'm thankful for what God's given me since being here.

The Lord(s) giveth and the Commons taketh away.

Be very very careful what you wish for. Poles and Spaniards felt just as happy and safe as you a few months ago.

British public opinion could easily be manipulated in an anti-Irish direction with the way things are going.

murphaph

kowtow wrote: »

Not at all, it's a matter of historical and legal fact.

Irish people have always been absolutely free to go and live in the UK, and vice versa, an arrangement formalised by the CTA in the 1920's but no doubt reflecting the position as it had already been for many years.

Irish people can live, work, vote, and claim pensions in the UK immediately upon arrival there. They do not do so as EU citizens but as Irish citizens - my Mother, as a matter of fact, who is in her nineties, still has her main home there as she has done through most of the last fifty years or more and has never seen the need to change her Irish passport.

Just stop for a moment and consider what our Government's reaction would have been if UK ministers suggested that the Irish Ministers were incompetent, or that our voters had been stupid or ill informed when they voted in the EU referenda, and that they should enter a customs union with the UK in order to protect the Good Friday agreement. Our media would be incandescent at the perceived slight on this country.

When push comes to shove there really are close ties between Ireland and the UK, many families span both and will continue to do so despite the obvious cultural and political differences. A bit of mutual respect and understanding of each other's positions would move us forward a lot quicker than this grandstanding - and that applies to politicians (and voters, and commenters) on both sides of the Irish sea.

I find it slightly humourous that you and solo seem to think the 1949 Act can't be repealed in post Brexit Britain. They are repealing the European Communities Act for heaven's sake. The 49 Act would be trivial in comparison!!

There's a certain smugness about the whole thing which I find very off-putting.

First they came for the EU26, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not from the EU26.

jm08

Informative poll conducted by Queens and published on sluggerotoole.

Questions asked:

‘People should be prepared to accept border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, if this is agreed in the Brexit negotiations between the Government and the EU’.
Overall, 49% agreed with this, and 39% disagreed (with 12% neither agreeing or disagreeing).

‘After the UK leaves the EU, there should be free movement across the Irish border, as at present, but border controls between the island of Ireland and Great Britain’.

Overall, 64% agreed and 25% disagreed (with 11% undecided).

The survey was designed by QUB researchers, Professors Coakley and Garry, and the fieldwork was conducted by Ipsos MORI between 7th and 27th September 2017, consisting of 1,015 interviews with members of the public.

More info here:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/11/26/exclusive-poll-unionist-supporters-content-with-east-west-post-brexit-border-controls/

The Rape of Lucretia

steddyeddy wrote: »

They could resolve it if NI stayed in the single market, but the DUP have May's ear and won't stand for it.

Mmmm. But is this the UK strategy, and they are actually playing a very astute game - they are are the one holding the gun to the EU's head. And that this is the subtext to the 'how can we define the border solution without knowing the trade arrangements' line : effectively - 'give us free and open EU trade, even though we are outside the EU, or NI gets it'. The 'it' being an internal border on the UK side of the Eire border.

kowtow

murphaph wrote: »

I find it slightly humourous that you and solo seem to think the 1949 Act can't be repealed in post Brexit Britain. They are repealing the European Communities Act for heaven's sake. The 49 Act would be trivial in comparison!!

There's a certain smugness about the whole thing which I find very off-putting.

First they came for the EU26, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not from the EU26.

How far do we proceed with your line of argument? That no country should be able to pass laws governing it's own territory? That countries, peoples, and domestic governments are somehow untrustworthy unless brought to heel and supervised by the magical EU? Should Australia, Canada, China ... Dubai... any of the other myriad places that Irish people live and work and call home also be tarnished with this brush?

If there is smugness amongst those who support Brexit then it is nothing to the shrill selfishness exhibited by many in this thread. To compare the situation of the Irish in the UK to the Jews in Germany in the 1930's is a monstrous exaggeration.. the kind of "me too, don't forget me" wannabe victim-hood which beggars belief.

Only History will tell us whether the British Electorate was right or wrong in their decision to leave the EU, but it is - and was - their decision. This thread is the most shocking example of closed mindedness - a continuous stream of invective aimed at some imaginary blue collar uneducated or misled voter and those who would mislead him - along with accusations (and predictions) of racism, xenophobia, and absolutely anything seized on in a quest to somehow prove the Electorate wrong in the decision they made.

Absolutely nowhere can I find an example of the sort of open minded soul searching or thoughtful debate which might (1) make the EU a better place or draw any kind of lesson for the future from Brexit or (2) suggest any practical and mutually acceptable arrangements for the UK, Ireland, and EU going forward which might benefit all of us together. This despite the undisputed fact that Ireland will suffer more economically the further the UK is isolated in the years to come.

Brexit was a democratic decision, and the UK is a sovereign nation. For a country which fought hard for sovereignty, and professes to love democracy, we don't seem to be showing much respect for either if this debate is anything to go by.

murphaph

When (not if) Brexit goes tits up and the right wing press is looking for their scapegoats the Irish (if our government plays hard for our interests) will be high up on the list. The average daily mail reader can then exercise their democratic right to crack down on Irish immigrants too.

Vronsky

murphaph wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

You do say that the UK thinks that Ireland needs access to it to get to the outside world. That's broadly speaking true. It does. That's what I was responding to. I agree that most goods from the Republic don't pass through NI but they definitely do pass through the UK.

This is why we should be looking for a good deal.

As for open Britain and the EU being open. The EU is open to itself primarily. It is highly protectionist in respect to the wider world however.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Can you name a few countries or trade blocs that are less protectionist than the EU?

If the UK cuts Irish trucks off it will face massive retaliation from the EU and will be ruined. The EU will at the same time massively invest in the southern Irish and French ports and the connecting ferries to reconnect Ireland to the continent.

Good evening at 6am on a Saturday morning in the UK? Are you in the UK?

Oh and what about a replacement for EASA by (latest) March 2019?

Isn't it wonderful that it was that his schtick that had betrayed his location, and I dare say, motive?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

Professor Moriarty

kowtow wrote: »

How far do we proceed with your line of argument? That no country should be able to pass laws governing it's own territory? That countries, peoples, and domestic governments are somehow untrustworthy unless brought to heel and supervised by the magical EU? Should Australia, Canada, China ... Dubai... any of the other myriad places that Irish people live and work and call home also be tarnished with this brush?

If there is smugness amongst those who support Brexit then it is nothing to the shrill selfishness exhibited by many in this thread. To compare the situation of the Irish in the UK to the Jews in Germany in the 1930's is a monstrous exaggeration.. the kind of "me too, don't forget me" wannabe victim-hood which beggars belief.

Only History will tell us whether the British Electorate was right or wrong in their decision to leave the EU, but it is - and was - their decision. This thread is the most shocking example of closed mindedness - a continuous stream of invective aimed at some imaginary blue collar uneducated or misled voter and those who would mislead him - along with accusations (and predictions) of racism, xenophobia, and absolutely anything seized on in a quest to somehow prove the Electorate wrong in the decision they made.

Absolutely nowhere can I find an example of the sort of open minded soul searching or thoughtful debate which might (1) make the EU a better place or draw any kind of lesson for the future from Brexit or (2) suggest any practical and mutually acceptable arrangements for the UK, Ireland, and EU going forward which might benefit all of us together. This despite the undisputed fact that Ireland will suffer more economically the further the UK is isolated in the years to come.

Brexit was a democratic decision, and the UK is a sovereign nation. For a country which fought hard for sovereignty, and professes to love democracy, we don't seem to be showing much respect for either if this debate is anything to go by.

What exactly did the British electorate vote for? Unless you can describe precisely what it is that the Leave voters voted for, then by definition they have been misled.

The EU has been very good for our economy and society. If a country's decision to leave the EU threatens peace in our country, will badly hurt our economy and will damage the EU, then that country can expect a lot of criticism. Especially if it doesn't have the integrity to admit the damage it is doing.

steddyeddy

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Mmmm. But is this the UK strategy, and they are actually playing a very astute game - they are are the one holding the gun to the EU's head. And that this is the subtext to the 'how can we define the border solution without knowing the trade arrangements' line : effectively - 'give us free and open EU trade, even though we are outside the EU, or NI gets it'. The 'it' being an internal border on the UK side of the Eire border.

They haven't got a gun. The EU holds all the cards. The UK can define the border by allowing NI to enter the single market. After all it did vote to remain.

The Rape of Lucretia

steddyeddy wrote: »

They haven't got a gun. The EU holds all the cards. The UK can define the border by allowing NI to enter the single market. After all it did vote to remain.

How small regions of the UK votes is irrelevant.

The UK can define the border as you say. But it can also define it along the border of the six. Or at least threaten to, if it calculated the EU will back down on taking that risk, and give it a great Brexit deal with access to the common market.

Schorpio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

Meh. I can think of much better things to do than pay attention to anything UKIP tweet. Nigel should be a full-time magician after the disappearing act he pulled after the vote passed and people were looking to him for some hint of what should come next.

Anthracite

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

For those like our friend Solo who believe that British imperial attitudes are a thing of the past.

Anthracite

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Mmmm. But is this the UK strategy, and they are actually playing a very astute game - they are are the one holding the gun to the EU's head. And that this is the subtext to the 'how can we define the border solution without knowing the trade arrangements' line : effectively - 'give us free and open EU trade, even though we are outside the EU, or NI gets it'. The 'it' being an internal border on the UK side of the Eire border.

They are holding a gun to their own heads. We'll just get some of the splatter should they choose to fire.

kowtow

Vronsky wrote: »

Isn't it wonderful that it was that his schtick that had betrayed his location, and I dare say, motive?

?

steddyeddy

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

How small regions of the UK votes is irrelevant.

The UK can define the border as you say. But it can also define it along the border of the six. Or at least threaten to, if it calculated the EU will back down on taking that risk, and give it a great Brexit deal with access to the common market.

It's not irrelevant to those countries who voted remain. Both countries, Scotland and the North have sizeable numbers of people wanting independence from Britain. If the UK plays its cards wrong, which it is, it will lose two countries.

steddyeddy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

To be honest I think Ireland's suffered more from British immigration than vice versa. Hence the problems with the North.

Leroy42

I have seen very little invective on this thread. What I have seen is people asking questions. Questions that should have a single answer but in most cases all anybody can provide is a position paper or he never actually said that.

Brexit is going to have a major impact on Ireland, and whilst I wouldn't expect the UK electorate to make that a major part of their decision, to simply ignore the effect of ones decisions on others is of course going to bring a backlash from that party.

I find it ironic that the UK have been moaning and demonising the EU for years but any hint of a question from Ireland is met with annoyance.

UK is free to make whatever choices it wants, but many of the questions on this thread are based on the lies and misinformation peddled during the campaign that apparently the voter acted on. All the brexiteers telling everyone to respect the vote yet they see no problem in the path to that vote being lined with lies.

Despite continuing questions there are never any answer beyond lets wait and see.

Leonard Hofstadter

Schorpio wrote: »

Meh. I can think of much better things to do than pay attention to anything UKIP tweet. Nigel should be a full-time magician after the disappearing act he pulled after the vote passed and people were looking to him for some hint of what should come next.

To be fair there's no shortage of Irish people saying anti-British things, it's been there as long as I've been alive.

Just because we are (rightly) appalled by the actions of the British Government and some of the things leave advocates want, doesn't mean we should take it out on the whole country and especially the 48% of the electorate who did after all vote to stay.

For starters it doesn't serve our interests to try and sour the great progress that was being made on UK-Irish relations before Brexit. Now of course we have to stand tall on the border issue - and ironically one of the reasons I support the Taoiseach's strong line on it is precisely because I don't want a border and the possibility of the bad old days coming back.

I think it's far better to take the dent on Anglo-Irish relations now (it will recover once some sort of UK-EU deal is agreed - and I think ultimately one will be agreed because the Tories know no trade deals will destroy the UK's economy despite all their rhetoric and I don't think Theresa May is as daft as some of her colleagues such as BoJo and especially Liam Fox) than to potentially allow a permanent border and all that that would entail - that really would destabilise things in the North with the obvious knock-on consequences.

Whether we like it our lump it, and because of rather than in spite of, our history, our two countries will be forever connected and forever intertwined. That's why Brexit is so sad as it does threaten to undo the many bonds that tie us together, I have always had good time for the Brits and they've been nothing but very good to me in the 5+ years I've been in the UK. I am personally really sad that a country I used to admire so much and a country that I always thought was a much more modern, liberal, tolerant and open-minded one than our own has chosen to tell the rest of the world that it wants to cut itself off and try to go back to a past that simply doesn't exist. As Leo Varadkar has said before, we should be trying to build bridges with each other, not walls.

Sadly just as we can be guilty of having the chip on our shoulder so are they guilty of a complete lack of awareness of certain things about Ireland and why the border would be so problematic for us.

Vronsky

kowtow wrote: »

Vronsky wrote: »

Isn't it wonderful that it was that his schtick that had betrayed his location, and I dare say, motive?

?

Sorry, forgot to link:

murphaph wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

You do say that the UK thinks that Ireland needs access to it to get to the outside world. That's broadly speaking true. It does. That's what I was responding to. I agree that most goods from the Republic don't pass through NI but they definitely do pass through the UK.

This is why we should be looking for a good deal.

As for open Britain and the EU being open. The EU is open to itself primarily. It is highly protectionist in respect to the wider world however.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Can you name a few countries or trade blocs that are less protectionist than the EU?

If the UK cuts Irish trucks off it will face massive retaliation from the EU and will be ruined. The EU will at the same time massively invest in the southern Irish and French ports and the connecting ferries to reconnect Ireland to the continent.

Good evening at 6am on a Saturday morning in the UK? Are you in the UK?

Oh and what about a replacement for EASA by (latest) March 2019?

J Mysterio

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not much of a special relationship when Ireland is basically being told to wait until the UK gets what it wants before it will even state its position on something that could have a significant impact on Ireland.

Well put

J Mysterio

solodeogloria wrote: »

No I don't. The Government have been very clear on their stance on the border. You can read the position paper.

If their stance is very clear, why can't you succintly define what this is, rather than referring to some 'position paper'. Intelectually dishonest.

Capt'n Midnight

Anthracite wrote: »

Well they might get more talented people from India in a deal with them, but that won't go down well with the millions who voted Brexit because the EU was somehow filling the UK with brown people.

That's one way to spin it.

What's actually happening is
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-immigration-curry-industry-theresa-may-betrayal-a7398196.html

Brexit-backing curry industry says it feels ‘betrayed’ by Theresa May’s immigration clampdown

The number of licensed curry restaurants has declined by 13 per cent, with over 1,000 restaurants closing their doors for good in the last 18 months.
...
Britain’s £4bn curry industry, which campaigned for the UK to leave EU, says it has been betrayed by politicians over immigration, in the wake of the Brexit vote.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/third-of-curry-houses-could-close-as-tough-immigration-rules-block-chefs-coming-to-uk-a6997831.html

Current immigration rules mean chefs wanting to come to the UK must earn at least £29,570 after deductions for accommodation and meals and cannot work at a restaurant with a takeaway attached.

How many local curry restaurants do you know that don't do takeaway ?


This is on top of tougher rules and higher costs on Indian students in recent years too. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37891734

Cobra Beer founder Lord Bilimoria earlier said restrictions on staying in the UK after their studies meant the number of Indians attending UK universities had halved in the past five years.

...
The number of study visas issued to Indian nationals fell from 68,238 in the year to June 2010 to 11,864 five years later, official UK figures show.

An Ciarraioch

jm08 wrote: »

Informative poll conducted by Queens and published on sluggerotoole.

Questions asked:

‘People should be prepared to accept border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, if this is agreed in the Brexit negotiations between the Government and the EU’.
Overall, 49% agreed with this, and 39% disagreed (with 12% neither agreeing or disagreeing).

‘After the UK leaves the EU, there should be free movement across the Irish border, as at present, but border controls between the island of Ireland and Great Britain’.

Overall, 64% agreed and 25% disagreed (with 11% undecided).

The survey was designed by QUB researchers, Professors Coakley and Garry, and the fieldwork was conducted by Ipsos MORI between 7th and 27th September 2017, consisting of 1,015 interviews with members of the public.

More info here:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/11/26/exclusive-poll-unionist-supporters-content-with-east-west-post-brexit-border-controls/

Most interesting aspect is that a clear majority of unionists agreed with both proposals.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

The mention of Mo, brings the best of politics to mind. Sadly, very few of that quality in the present UK Parliament.
At least LB have stated that CU and Single Market are not off the table or red lines for them.

The only reasonable, responsible voice I can hear is Ken Clarke.

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/934821820859068417

Lovely

MEP. These are the type of charmers the English were sending to the EU parliament. Can you imagine.

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

Solo for starters has stated it multiple times on this thread as justification of Brexit because EU is somehow holding UK back in the area with China, India etc...

'll say it again.

In order to save each family in the UK a fiver a year on cheaper Chinese shoe imports the UK vetoed the EU banning China dumping below cost steel here.

- that shows how good a deal the UK will get from China
- I'm guessing the EU can put the barriers back up when the UK leave,
- this won't help what's left of the UK steel industry


What else has the UK blocked in the EU , and how will it be affected now the veto has gone ?

Capt'n Midnight

kowtow wrote: »

Imagine that.

I reckon the UK would have to give them some extra-ordinary tax treatments to make that worthwhile.

Good thing May has a magic money tree.

The car makers are already lining up for bailouts under threat of pulling out.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

MEP. These are the type of charmers the English were sending to the EU parliament. Can you imagine.

*cough, cough*

Ming

Anthracite

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

That's one way to spin it.

What's actually happening is
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-immigration-curry-industry-theresa-may-betrayal-a7398196.html


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/third-of-curry-houses-could-close-as-tough-immigration-rules-block-chefs-coming-to-uk-a6997831.htmlHow many local curry restaurants do you know that don't do takeaway ?


This is on top of tougher rules and higher costs on Indian students in recent years too. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37891734

Aren't we talking about a putative free trade deal with India, rather than the current situation?

ancapailldorcha

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

*cough, cough*

Ming

No more nonsense like this please.

J Mysterio

Good read:

I went to the DUP Conference and what I found was disturbingly familiar – this is our new Ukip - Tom Peck for English Independent.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Most interesting aspect is that a clear majority of unionists agreed with both proposals.

Those are incredible results really.

Leonard Hofstadter

J Mysterio wrote: »

Good read:

I went to the DUP Conference and what I found was disturbingly familiar – this is our new Ukip - Tom Peck for English Independent.

That wouldn't be an uncommon sentiment in the 'mainland' - the English know precious little about the North and what they do shocks and appals them (thanks to the DUP). There was a lot of shock and bewilderment that the DUP was what represents Unionism and keeping the UK together given their socially conservative views and some resentment at the North getting the £1 billion or whatever sweetheart deal it was (although I note the money hasn't been paid yet).

The Tories might be getting their knickers in a twist about a sea border but everyone else wouldn't care in the slightest.

Whichever side of the border you're from, we're all considered to be 'Irish' anyway, I've lost count of the number of times I've been asked am I from 'Northern Ireland' or 'Southern Ireland'.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Those are incredible results really.

"Incredible" in the sense that you doubt they can be correct?

Peregrinus

kowtow wrote: »

. . . Only History will tell us whether the British Electorate was right or wrong in their decision to leave the EU, but it is - and was - their decision. This thread is the most shocking example of closed mindedness - a continuous stream of invective aimed at some imaginary blue collar uneducated or misled voter and those who would mislead him - along with accusations (and predictions) of racism, xenophobia, and absolutely anything seized on in a quest to somehow prove the Electorate wrong in the decision they made.

Absolutely nowhere can I find an example of the sort of open minded soul searching or thoughtful debate which might (1) make the EU a better place or draw any kind of lesson for the future from Brexit or (2) suggest any practical and mutually acceptable arrangements for the UK, Ireland, and EU going forward which might benefit all of us together. This despite the undisputed fact that Ireland will suffer more economically the further the UK is isolated in the years to come.

Brexit was a democratic decision, and the UK is a sovereign nation. For a country which fought hard for sovereignty, and professes to love democracy, we don't seem to be showing much respect for either if this debate is anything to go by.

Oh, come on, Kowtow, have you been living under a rock for the past sixteen months?

Lots of people have tried to come up with suggestions as to how the UK could leave the EU, as mandated by the referendum, in ways that minimise damage to the Irish peace process and to Ireland. And every single suggestion is immediately shot down from the British side with appeals to a any of a number of "red lines". Every time someone tries to come up with a solution that respects the red lines already announced, a new one can be announced. The red lines are beyond debate, discussion or interrogation because they are mystically deemed to be an inexorable requirement of the Brexit vote, despite the fact that none of the red lines appeared on the ballot paper, or were articulated in the campaign before the referendum. Designating something as a "red line" seems to be a tactic to avoid having to mount a rational justification for it (and may in fact be seen as a tacit admission that it can't be rationally justified).

How about this for a red line? "The UK will not leave the EU in any way which would threaten harm to the Irish peace process." If you can explain why that isn't a red line adopted by the UK, I think we'd all like to hear it.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/934987098649710592

Good to see some support from US congress...

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RepBrendanBoyle/status/934987098649710592

Good to see some support from US congress...

Well now that is particularly interesting, "stateside" is watching too.

Have we as many allies as we had 20/30 years ago though?

Kermit.de.frog

Irish diplomacy is strong in US, they will be working the channels.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Incredible" in the sense that you doubt they can be correct?

No, incredible that they are variance with what Unionist politicians are saying.

It backs up what I suspected and said here, that unionists are practical and concerned with their own prosperity first, in the main. And that the unionist political class, namely Arlene and the DUP called Brexit all wrong.

Enzokk

Interesting article about people regretting their vote now and how it will not really change anything in the short term. I think this is in line with a lot of comments from posters here that the pain will have to be felt before people change their minds. In fact even in that case it will not be enough for someone to admit they are wrong.

‘I thought I’d put in a protest vote’: the people who regret voting leave

Now the stories of those that regret their vote doesn't interest me as much in the story as I am sure you will be able to find remain voters that regret their vote as well. The interesting parts for me is the poll that is showing a shift in attitude on whether the decision was correct, and the reasons why people are sticking to their opinion. There is still however no majority of opinion of "going against the will of the people" but it seems that this could be due to people hoping to forget about Brexit and the EU debate and just wanting to put it behind them, come hell or high water.

Some of the interesting parts at least to me in the story:

In fact, the figures have remained stubbornly static. In April, the British Election Study surveyed almost 28,000 voters and found that 11% of leave voters expressed regret – but so did 7% of remain voters. While opposition to Brexit is hardening among remainers – according to YouGov, the number who believed the referendum result should be honoured plummeted from 51% to 28% between June and October – movement from leave to remain is slow. In October, the proportion of voters who felt that Britain had made the wrong choice reached a new high of 47% versus 42% (the rest weren’t sure). But that’s not yet enough to change the political calculus. However the question is phrased, the level of regret remains consistent with that following the 2015 election. The people featured in this article are a minority.

“It’s not that nobody is changing their minds,” explains Joe Twyman, co-founder of YouGov. “Very few are, and when they are, they’re cancelling each other out, so the aggregate level change is very small.”

For experts in voter behaviour or cognitive science, however, this is unsurprising. Humans do not instinctively enjoy changing their minds. Admitting that you were wrong, especially when the original decision has huge ramifications, is a painful and destabilising experience that the brain tends to resist. Research into this kind of denial has given us concepts such as cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.

“When you have a strong view about something, you’re likely to reject information that’s contrary to your view, reject the source of the information and rationalise the information,” says Jane Green, professor of political science at the University of Manchester and co-director of the British Election Study. “We select information that’s consistent with our views, because it’s more comfortable and reaffirming.” In fact, it’s physically pleasurable. Some recent studies of confirmation bias indicate that consuming information that supports our beliefs actually produces a dopamine rush.

I think this has been evident on here where information that may impact or change your opinion on a matter is waved away in that it doesn't matter or is not relevant.

For most Britons, Brexit is a phoney war that barely touches their lives. “From a personal point of view, things haven’t changed, so there’s no reason for them to change their minds,” YouGov’s Twyman says. “It’s like Vietnam during the Kennedy years. It’s this thing that you watch on TV but you think doesn’t affect you, and it won’t affect you until it’s your son getting the draft papers. I’ve been doing this job for 17 years and I’m never surprised by the lack of attention that most people pay to politics. We know that a lot of people voted to leave the EU so they wouldn’t have to discuss Brexit again, little knowing that we’re going to have to do nothing but that.”...

...Twyman expects to see serious movement only when a final deal is presented to the public. “Seventy per cent of people believe that in theory we should leave the EU,” he says, citing a recent poll in which only 32% actively wanted to thwart Brexit. “But what if that’s 10 groups of 7% or 20 groups of 3.5%, each group with its own particular requirements? And what if the deal that’s struck appeals to only one of those groups? There’s huge potential for change.”

At the same time opinion is changing on whether to just go ahead with the referendum result or to try and either reverse it. This is down to Remain voters believing the result should be honored that is slowly dropping.




But at the moment Brexiters are safe in the knowledge the numbers are still with them. I think this is why we will see a hard Brexit as more likely, those that want to leave the EU will see the momentum start changing and will know that with a extended negotiation the negative effects will be shown even more and it will make a u-turn more likely the longer the negotiations go on for. They will have one chance to exit the EU and it is now, before the full blown effects are known and while people still cling to the belief that they were right to vote to leave the EU.

This story is based on the opinion poll that was done by Yougov at the end of October. I apologise if it has been discussed in detail before.

As we get further and further away from the referendum itself more people might start to think it is legitimate to try to stop Brexit, and eventually there could be a majority that want to stop Brexit.

But for the moment the public still believe that Brexit means Brexit.

There has been a shift against Brexit, but the public still think we should go ahead with it

flaneur

The UK Government would probably want to be very careful about how it handles Irish relations as there are few things that come across worse than the bellicose, anti Irish rhetoric that is starting to spew from certain English nationalists.

It will do them a lot of damage in the USA, as there's a big Irish contingent on both sides of the house and actually lots of them in the current Trump administration. While US domestic politics is very partisan, a lot of people with Irish heritage of all political hues have folk memories of the bad old days and have ancestors who had to flee to the US precisely because of this kind of thing in the 19th century.

Also in Europe, I’m already hearing expressions of shock at some of the press and social media ranting.

If they ratchet up the paddywhackery, they’ll just cause a major diplomatic issue and a total loss of sympathy in Brussels. It’s easy to forget that Europe is largely made up of small countries and countries that have had to deal with unpleasantness from larger neighboring countries over the years. Most will take a dim view of that kind of ranting nationalism targeting a neighboring country.

Many European governments are also centrist with a lot in common with FG in their outlook and are up against domestic far right wing parties, extreme nationalism and xenophobic movements and are putting the current UK rhetoric into the same category as the likes of Marine le Pen, Wilders and the AfD etc. It’s in none of their interests to be seen to be soft on this kind of jingoism.

There are few things that look worse than the UK starting to look like a pompous bully.

Also I think Ireland has a lot more soft power than the British realise. They tend to see us only as we relate to them and not be aware of the fact that we’ve a large informal global networks and very warm diplomatic relations with a lot of countries and in Europe, English nationalism tends to have a bad name - all the jingoism in the media and politics gets noticed and the football hooligans have been very poor ambassadors over the decades.

They’re really picking a very stupid fight if they start turning this on us.

solodeogloria

flaneur wrote: »

The UK Government would probably want to be very careful about how it handles Irish relations as there are few things that come across worse than the bellicose, anti Irish rhetoric that is starting to spew from certain English nationalists.

It will do them a lot of damage in the USA, as there's a big Irish contingent on both sides of the house and actually lots of them in the current Trump administration. While US domestic politics is very partisan, a lot of people with Irish heritage of all political hues have folk memories of the bad old days and have ancestors who had to flee to the US precisely because of this kind of thing in the 19th century.

Also in Europe, I’m already hearing expressions of shock at some of the press and social media ranting.

If they ratchet up the paddywhackery, they’ll just cause a major diplomatic issue and a total loss of sympathy in Brussels.

There are few things that look worse than the UK starting to look like a pompous bully.

Good morning!

I don't think the UK's position could be perceived as bullying. Their stated intent is to keep the border open. Discussions towards that end could open if phase 2 is given the green light.

If it isn't the only interpretation that could be given is that the Irish government and the EU don't want to make progress on the issue. This is again why I feel the pressure is being misdirected. It should be on the EU to move forward.

I hope progress can be made, but I personally can't stand much the desperation amongst some to find some reason why some people are determined to find "paddywhackery" (what a word!) where it doesn't exist.

The British press are entitled to criticise the stupidity that is emerging from the Irish government on this issue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria