Brexit discussion thread II

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You may or may not have noticed that I have already given plaudits to how it is being handled by Dublin.
In one sentence and without trying to score points against other parties who are actually working in consensus with the gov.

Huge successes get one sentence of praise, and the tiniest little thing going wrong gets hundreds of long posts of unrelenting criticism. Sounds very balanced.

Zubeneschamali

solodeogloria wrote: »

And it is simply obvious that no deal is better than a bad one.

No, that is completely mad. No deal means no trade with the EU at all. No flights to or from. Trains stopped at the far side of the Chunnel for visa checks.

What's that you say? The EU would never do that to us? But that is what no deal means!

Apparently what "no deal is better than a bad deal" means is that you can reject everything the EU offers, and then unilaterally announce that they must allow trade, flights and travel on your terms.

Eh, no.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Huge successes get one sentence of praise, and the tiniest little thing going wrong gets hundreds of long posts of unrelenting criticism. Sounds very balanced.

Hardly a 'huge success'...yet.
We won't probably know until much later what actual hand the government played.
But so far they have played well. How much that is dependent on the set up of the government remains to be seen.
Personally I think it has been a very good thing to have one party watching the other very closely.

J Mysterio

Theresa May must accept her “enormous folly” of hoping that a trade deal with Donald Trump could replace trade and jobs lost by leaving the single market and customs union after Brexit, Nicola Sturgeon has said. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-trade-deal-eu-brexit-nicola-sturgeon-britain-first-a8088181.html

Carb

Jayop wrote: »

The only voice you're hearing because they're the only ones being listened to. The other Unionist parties are making noise and Niomi Long is as always talking complete common sense on her Twitter account. She's a bit of a legend on Twitter.

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

Leroy42

Carb wrote: »

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

It is a question that I have been asking myself. I assume SF are against a hard border, and despite their previous aversion to the EU they are with the majority that voted to remain.

Why are they not out demanding that the DUP take account of the majority that voted to remain. From what I can see it seems like the DUP are the only ones making any debate at all up there.

If SF really want to be seen as a party in the south, surely they should be putting everything into fighting for a non hard border.

FrancieBrady

Carb wrote: »

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

Queens Uni conducted some research, see here.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/11/26/exclusive-poll-unionist-supporters-content-with-east-west-post-brexit-border-controls/

flaneur

J Mysterio wrote: »

Theresa May must accept her “enormous folly” of hoping that a trade deal with Donald Trump could replace trade and jobs lost by leaving the single market and customs union after Brexit, Nicola Sturgeon has said. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-trade-deal-eu-brexit-nicola-sturgeon-britain-first-a8088181.html

That’s all fine and well, but they’ll just sneer, mock and call her names.

My view of this is that they won’t accept reality until it actually bites them economically.

It’s terrible for the half that didn’t vote for this crazy and I would suspect many people who voted Brexit may not even have done so with this kind of scenario in mind.

Samaris

Samaris wrote: »

At some point I'll dig out the reference, but I've been reading Tony Connelly's excellent (if rather terrifying) book Brexit and Ireland. It's all a bit convoluted, so I'm on the second read now and still not picked up everything. But still, it's made plain from interviews with EU commissioners and those organising the whole thing from the EU side that Ireland was exceptionally well-prepared for all this, as well as being one of the first off the mark ensuring that Ireland's position in this was not overlooked. The Irish were sending delegations right off the bat who knew intimately the problems that were being faced, from the border and from trade in almost every sector (agri was causing the biggest screaming heebie-jeebies unsurprisingly). One official commented that some of the Irish delegations knew enough that they could have worked for the commission on it.

Just nice to see some news of competency in this age of unrepentant Stupid.

IMO one of the only true 'winners' from Brexit.

His analysis and insights are spot on. Certainly steets ahead of counterparts in the BBC as the recent Brexitcast podcast with him as a guest showed.

Samaris

Carb wrote: »

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

Tbh, Alliance Party (Naomi Long's lot) were a revelation to me, I just rejoined Twitter (erk) on the strength of getting to see more of what people are saying beyond the politicians in charge. At this point, I really do not know what NI actually thinks about all this. It seems to be remarkably calm for what is an existential question for NI, beyond even what it is for Britain and Ireland (and it's pretty existential for the two bigger nations).

I'm getting the impression, but only really based on that Queens study, that they would prefer a sea border, which, while not a great option, at least substantially mitigates the very real concerns of a land border (I'm not sure how the sea border is going to hold up, it will take real work on Britain's side to not cock this up and I'm not sure I trust the current lot to cope). But I'm rather relieved that NI appears to see this as the better solution as well as the Republic. I see negative outcomes for NI (and difficulties for RoI) no matter how we solve this. But it is something if Ireland's firm stance on no land border is at least not screwing NI worse.

Infini

blackcard wrote: »

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

To be fair while plenty of us can be unhappy how things went back then I think quietly with everything that has happened they probably feel that in truth the country took one for the team and they owe us big for it. This is probably one of the ways they have to make it up by backing up the country thats being put at risk once again by this stupid excercise but this is not of our own making.

J Mysterio

Agree Connoly's coverage has been good. Seems a bit premature to release a book on Brexit though. I guess there will be a sequel.

Carb

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Queens Uni conducted some research, see here.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/11/26/exclusive-poll-unionist-supporters-content-with-east-west-post-brexit-border-controls/

Thanks. Interesting reading. All points towards the DUP's view not being consistent with the public's. It would also seem to indicate that many who voted to leave, did so on the basis of soft Brexit, which seems to be fairly consistent with the rest of the UK

Samaris

J Mysterio wrote: »

Agree Connoly's coverage has been good. Seems a bit premature to release a book on Brexit though. I guess there will be a sequel.

It covers the lead-up, the preparations and political situation that lead to it; the preparations parts cover the impacts being prepared for etc. Covers a lot of 2015 and '16, the power struggles within the Tory party (Davis, Johnson and Fox) affecting attempts by Dublin to convince Irish voters in the UK to vote Remain* and the British government that they were really not taking this seriously enough. It does pretty well at going into the vast complexities of the whole thing through the eyes of politicians facing what to do about it. Ends around Spring 2017 and then some potential opportunities. Sequel warranted, but it covers what's lead up to what's going on now pretty well. He seems to have had strong access in Brussels and he covers the British portion well too. Pretty readable as well, although the fishing chapter is grim.

*Marginal success. Younger ones and recent immigrants mostly voted Remain, older Irish and longer-settled Irish were likely to vote in line with larger demographics.

FrancieBrady

Carb wrote: »

Thanks. Interesting reading. All points towards the DUP's view not being consistent with the public's. It would also seem to indicate that many who voted to leave, did so on the basis of soft Brexit, which seems to be fairly consistent with the rest of the UK

I haven't seen anybody use it to challenge the DUP and it is high time somebody did.

Carb

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is a question that I have been asking myself. I assume SF are against a hard border, and despite their previous aversion to the EU they are with the majority that voted to remain.

Why are they not out demanding that the DUP take account of the majority that voted to remain. From what I can see it seems like the DUP are the only ones making any debate at all up there.

If SF really want to be seen as a party in the south, surely they should be putting everything into fighting for a non hard border.

Was thinking the same actually. I thought SF would have been much more visible in the discussion. I understand in the south that all political parties share FG's view, but there probably isn't much political gain in being vocal. If the current strategy works out, Ireland gets what it wants, but if it backfires, all parties will have something to say.

Love him or hate him, I do wonder sometimes whether Martin McGuiness' voice is missed at a time like this.

blanch152

Carb wrote: »

Was thinking the same actually. I thought SF would have been much more visible in the discussion. I understand in the south that all political parties share FG's view, but there probably isn't much political gain in being vocal. If the current strategy works out, Ireland gets what it wants, but if it backfires, all parties will have something to say.

Love him or hate him, I do wonder sometimes whether Martin McGuiness' voice is missed at a time like this.

The problem for Sinn Fein is that whenever they open their mouth on Brexit, all that a FG or FF politician has to do is tell them to take their seats in Westminister to explain the problem from the inside and agree a deal to bring back a devolved government that can talks about it like Nicola Sturgeon.

Their refusal to do either costs them credibility on the issue,

Call me Al

Carb wrote: »

Thanks. Interesting reading. All points towards the DUP's view not being consistent with the public's. It would also seem to indicate that many who voted to leave, did so on the basis of soft Brexit, which seems to be fairly consistent with the rest of the UK

It's consistent with their demographic. That is who they care about. Jeffrey Donalson talked to Pat Kenny during the week about representing his electorate, but he will never represent anything beyond Ulster Says No. How his party is not in breach of the T&Cs of the GFA as they try to manipulate the future of NI to their own ends as facilitators of the UK government is beyond me.

Blowfish

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is a question that I have been asking myself. I assume SF are against a hard border, and despite their previous aversion to the EU they are with the majority that voted to remain.

Why are they not out demanding that the DUP take account of the majority that voted to remain. From what I can see it seems like the DUP are the only ones making any debate at all up there.

If SF really want to be seen as a party in the south, surely they should be putting everything into fighting for a non hard border.

I dunno, given the feelings towards SF for historical reasons in the UK, keeping relatively quiet and letting the DUP shoot themselves in the foot is probably not actually a bad idea

solodeogloria

Call me Al wrote: »

It's consistent with their demographic. That is who they care about. Jeffrey Donalson talked to Pat Kenny during the week about representing his electorate, but he will never represent anything beyond Ulster Says No. How his party is not in breach of the T&Cs of the GFA as they try to manipulate the future of NI to their own ends as facilitators of the UK government is beyond me.

Good evening!

It depends what he's referring to. In Northern Ireland as a whole it's true to say remain won out. He's the MP for Lagan Valley however. This is pretty much the environs of Lisburn and Banbridge. Lagan Valley was one of the Leave constituencies in Northern Ireland. That's only one half of it. If you interpret a vote for him and the DUP in 2017 as an affirmation of the DUP manifesto he's also right.

On the Good Friday Agreement and the DUP breaching it. It'd be good to get into the details of how exactly this is happening. Can someone lay out the case for how Brexit violates the Good Friday Agreement in a clear way with reference to the text? It's been bandied around on the thread quite a bit and detail would be helpful.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

johnnyskeleton

steddyeddy wrote: »

Opinions are grand, but your posts change ideology every few posts. Your posts aren't about Brexit. They're about oppisition to what the last poster said.

Mod note:

Play the ball not the man. This thread seems to have a lot of personal attacks at a certain poster. That must end. No matter how strongly you disagree with his or her opinions, either debate the points raised or stay silent. Its really quite simple.

So because its always the same poster being attacked but by different people its hard to deal with effectively. So the next person to do it is probably going to be banned.

johnnyskeleton

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Could the PR find a thread of it's own maybe?

Mod note:

If you have a problem with a post please report instead of commenting on moderation on thread. If you want to start a new thread feel free.

FrancieBrady

Blowfish wrote: »

I dunno, given the feelings towards SF for historical reasons in the UK, keeping relatively quiet and letting the DUP shoot themselves in the foot is probably not actually a bad idea

Matt Carthy made the point that SF are quite happy to allow nationalists in the north to look towards Dublin on this one as they are broadly on the same page.

Showing the northern electorate that it is really Dublin that has their interests at heart is not that bad a move really, that is why Sammy Wilson immediately launched into the stock unionist position 'you don't take your seats' etc etc.

A seat in Westminster will make no difference on this one I think.

steddyeddy

Carb wrote: »

Was thinking the same actually. I thought SF would have been much more visible in the discussion. I understand in the south that all political parties share FG's view, but there probably isn't much political gain in being vocal. If the current strategy works out, Ireland gets what it wants, but if it backfires, all parties will have something to say.

Love him or hate him, I do wonder sometimes whether Martin McGuiness' voice is missed at a time like this.

SF don't have to do a thing. This is their dream come true. Unionists voted for something that will do more economic damage to the North than the IRA/UVF did or could. They just have to sit back and watch. The same goes for the SNP.

I agree about Martin McGuiness. He would have been a strong voice in this.

steddyeddy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Matt Carthy made the point that SF are quite happy to allow nationalists in the north to look towards Dublin on this one as they are broadly on the same page.

Showing the northern electorate that it is really Dublin that has their interests at heart is not that bad a move really, that is why Sammy Wilson immediately launched into the stock unionist position 'you don't take your seats' etc etc.

A seat in Westminster will make no difference on this one I think.

That's the point. It's not just SF, it's the Irish gov and the EU that are singing from the same hymn sheet.

MPFGLB

I'd say SF & Irish government have agreed SF would stay out of it

1 Because Dublin have it covered
2. Because they dont want to give any ammo to Unionists and right wing Tories & right wing UK press...IF SF said this or that ..then these would be against it ...SF would undermine the Irish government's stand based on their history & reputation in Uk

Leroy42

MPFGLB wrote: »

I'd say SF & Irish government have agreed SF would stay out of it

1 Because Dublin have it covered
2. Because they dont want to give any ammo to Unionists and right wing Tories & right wing UK press...IF SF said this or that ..then these would be against it ...SF would undermine the Irish government's stand based on their history & reputation in Uk

I really think you are giving too much credit to SF there. I doubt they really care if the government have it covered. They are a political party and the point is to get into power.

steddyeddy

Either way the unionists, and I include the Tories in that, are the real destructive force for the British economy.

MPFGLB

steddyeddy wrote: »

Either way the unionists, and I include the Tories in that, are the real destructive force for the British economy.

Whether you are a Brexiter or a Remainer ..one thing that can be of no doubt is the UK government have made a pig's ear of the whole thing from evoking article 50 too soon &without first sorting the legal issue and undestanding the process, calling a back firing election, not speaking in unison, many minsters not understanding the issues, not having a clear plan, lacking in what seems conviction esp with PM & Chancellor (remainers) ...the list goes on...it has been an almight crock of sh**e

MPFGLB

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really think you are giving too much credit to SF there. I doubt they really care if the government have it covered. They are a political party and the point is to get into power.

Not sure what you mean by credit...its in their interest to stay in the background...if Irish gov suceeds they get an open island of Ireland and if they dont they get to move centre stage and point the finger

flutered

blanch152 wrote: »

The problem for Sinn Fein is that whenever they open their mouth on Brexit, all that a FG or FF politician has to do is tell them to take their seats in Westminister to explain the problem from the inside and agree a deal to bring back a devolved government that can talks about it like Nicola Sturgeon.

Their refusal to do either costs them credibility on the issue,

not really, they campaigned on a not to sit in westminister ticket, always have done so, if they took their seats this would be thrown at them, fast

axer

Some more excellent analysis from Tony Connelly on where things are at here :
https://www.rte.ie/amp/924399/
Phase 2 not starting until at least March means businesses will have to start the process of implementing their contingency plans for a no deal - those jobs moving will really put the fire under the UK during trade talks weakening their hand even further.

flutered

blackcard wrote: »

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

did not the spanish premier tell the bbc this morning that spain agreed and would continue to agree with irelands decision

Tropheus

I can see the British Government falling over this. The DUP support for Brexit is opportunistic. It is in their interest to keep the North as separate as possible from the South. The UK being outside the EU drives an even bigger wedge between North and South.

I can't see the DUP accepting a sea border as they will see that as a step closer to a united Ireland. I can't see the Irish Government accepting a hard border. If the British Government try and go with the sea border, they'll lose the DUP support and trigger a general election. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

flutered

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Can people not jaysus t'a fook not bloody to sense understand that once the UK are not in the single market that ROI will be 100% responsible for securing the EU border as per Lisbon Treaty. We are being led astray by Irish government official muppets thinking we are thick.

it is up to the uk to control its borders according to wto rules

steddyeddy

Tropheus wrote: »

I can see the British Government falling over this. The DUP support for Brexit is opportunistic. It is in their interest to keep the North as separate as possible from the South. The UK being outside the EU drives an even bigger wedge between North and South.

I can't see the DUP accepting a sea border as they will see that as a step closer to a united Ireland. I can't see the Irish Government accepting a hard border. If the British Government try and go with the sea border, they'll lose the DUP support and trigger a general election. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

LeinsterDub

flutered wrote: »

it is up to the uk to control its borders according to wto rules

It's also our border.

Jayop

Carb wrote: »

Thought so. Can I ask if there is a prevailing view (if one exists) outside the DUP on hard/soft border, staying in the customs union etc. I'm not on twitter so have only really followed the main news outlets in the UK and Ireland which are consumed at this point with the Irish government and EU versus the UK government.

I honestly don't know Carb. The few Unionists I full own on Twitter are left wing people who just happen to be Unionists and they are disgusted with the DUP for a load of reasons. They were anti brexit from the start. 44 percent in the north voted for it and you'd have to imaging that over 90 percent of those were Unionists. Given that I can't imagine they're too upset with the DUP stance.

Jayop

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

I've left the politics forum for a while so bar a few more extreme people I can't remember who's who. You'd be of the Unionist viewpoint yeah?

So what's your views now on the best solution for the border and is your view shared? Personally NI have a chance at the best of both worlds here that they would be idiots to pass over. Stay in the customs union and in the UK with a sea border. It's going to cause no inconvenience to anyone traveling over as most airlines require a passport anyway and while the lorries are going to the docks they can be checked then seems so logical and in no way would weaken the union. In fact it could give the economy in the north a major boost that could weaken a lot of nationalists resolve for a ui

Jayop

I think I have you mixed up for someone else actually.

Jayop

Last post. On SF staying quiet. They're really not, follow a few of them on Twitter and they're always on about brexit, but because what they're saying is the company line it's not really newsworthy. Because the DUP are talking unqualified nonsense it's big news and it's also directed towards the southern government and the not just ni nationalists for a change so that's an even bigger story.

steddyeddy

Jayop wrote: »

I've left the politics forum for a while so bar a few more extreme people I can't remember who's who. You'd be of the Unionist viewpoint yeah?

So what's your views now on the best solution for the border and is your view shared? Personally NI have a chance at the best of both worlds here that they would be idiots to pass over. Stay in the customs union and in the UK with a sea border. It's going to cause no inconvenience to anyone traveling over as most airlines require a passport anyway and while the lorries are going to the docks they can be checked then seems so logical and in no way would weaken the union. In fact it could give the economy in the north a major boost that could weaken a lot of nationalists resolve for a ui

I'd be nationalist. I personally think that NI should stay in the single market. It would be complete idiocy to do otherwise.

Jayop

steddyeddy wrote: »

I'd be nationalist. I personally think that NI should stay in the single market. It would be complete idiocy to do otherwise.

Ya I remembered you were just after I posted that. Soz.

Would love to hear from a proper NI Unionist here about their views. I think the few Unionists that post here largely claim to be from the south iirc.

Kermit.de.frog

According to Tony Connelly's piece on the border, as of Friday, the sides are nowhere near close to an agreement.

Tropheus

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't equate a sea border with a united Ireland. If anything it postpones a united Ireland. A sea border = staying in the single market which is a boost for the NI economy IMHO.

Leaving the single market cripples the already dying NI economy and makes a united Ireland much more likely.

That's possibly a logical way to look at it. However, from a DUP perspective, that will be separating them from the rest of the UK which they won't tolerate.

steddyeddy

Jayop wrote: »

Ya I remembered you were just after I posted that. Soz.

Would love to hear from a proper NI Unionist here about their views. I think the few Unionists that post here largely claim to be from the south iirc.

The embarrassment of Brexit and the DUP seems to have made the hardcore Brexiters go into hiding on the site in the last few weeks.

A poll actually suggests that unionists would be fine with a sea border illustrating that the DUP don't speak for unionists.

Poll: https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2017/11/28/news/poll-suggests-unionists-would-be-content-with-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-1197975/

steddyeddy

Tropheus wrote: »

That's possibly a logical way to look at it. However, from a DUP perspective, that will be separating them from the rest of the UK which they won't tolerate.

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

Jayop

steddyeddy wrote: »

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

They're fine with being different from the UK when it suits them. Gay marriage, abortion, corporation tax, the rhi scheme to name a few.

Tropheus

steddyeddy wrote: »

But that's utter stupidity. It is different from the rest of the UK. To deny different is having the blinkers on.

It's the DUP we're talking about here. Logic isn't one of their strong points.

FrancieBrady

Tropheus wrote: »

It's the DUP we're talking about here. Logic isn't one of their strong points.

I have a feeling the DUP might not mind too much to be beaten on this. They know if they go out with the rest of the UK it will do massive damage. Why else would Arlene have been looking for special treatment nearly the morning after the Brexit vote surprised them.
If they lose this they can shore up their vote by claiming they are being ignored in favour of nationalism etc etc.
'Never Never Never, well OK maybe'. (The DUP thrive on the siege mentality.)

But essentially, they won't be carrying the blame for an unmitigated disaster.