Brexit discussion thread II

solodeogloria

Leroy42 wrote: »

So you have accepted a doubling of the settlement bill.
You have accepted that the £350m to NHS was a lie
You have accepted an (at least) 0.4% drop in growth for the next five years.
You have accepted a fall off of growth from the fastest growing economy to the slowest since the vote
You have accepted a fall from 5th to 6th in the rankings, that has cost around £20bn since the vote.
And now you are prepared to accept indirect jurisdiction from a European body.
You have accepted an undefined transition period (I thought this was going to be the easiest deal ever)
You seem to be prepared to accept regulatory compliance.
If there anything you are not prepared to accept to get this Brexit?

Good afternoon!

I have no issue with joint arbitration on the Brexit deal. That's what I've preferred to direct jurisdiction. I think Britain should have its own body of regulators in the long term including for aviation.

The Government have been clear that they want the transitional period to end before the next election.

The UK's economy is also only the slowest growing in the G7. I anticipate as clarification on the end state comes in that we will see this pick up.

I'm keen to see the process conclude.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur

The other problem I’m seeing here is that there’s a bit of a reality distortion field where what is being proposed is being accepted as quite reasonable by large aspects of the centre of the British media and talking head class.

It beggars belief that this far into the process, journalists covering British politics still aren’t informed about the EU and how it works. It really isn’t that complicated and you can get up to speed by reading a book or two or visiting a few websites.

There’s this notion that it’s unimaginably complex and nobody could possibly ever understand how it works, so let’s not even bother to think about it.

Also how anyone can go on TV and either talk about or conduct an interview about Ireland and Brexit and have absolutely no comprehension whatsoever of the political environment in either jurisdiction is just beyond me. It’s shocking incompetence and I think the likes of the major U.K. news outlets should have better standards than this.

The result is you’re getting the ill informed leading the uniformed and a bubble of nonsense is circulating and it’s risking exploding and covering everyone in b/s.

Samaris

Thanks for the links! Is there a way to link like that on a phone?

Harika

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-29/varoufakis-on-brexit-negotiations-ireland-greece-video

Varoufakis talks about Brexit and in short he is stunned that Britain agreed to those rules that benefit the EU. Also he suggests to stop Brexit negotiations and apply for an European Economic Agreement for five years as it solves all problems and restores sovereignty for the house of commons to discuss what they actually want.
They also talk quite a bit about Ireland and the border issue there.

MPFGLB

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Link here.

And in response to these last minute right wing Tories demands (talk about changing the goal posts) on free movement then what about the Irish citizens situation in the UK as highlighted in the following (and one of the issues I raised on the morning of the vote and was damped down as ridiculous)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/irish-citizens-special-rights-in-uk-at-risk

flaneur

This is the problem though. You can’t take them at their word.

That really won’t stand to them when it comes to negotiation of trade deals.

It’s quite sad to see the current bunch of clowns literally destroying the UK’s reputation as a sensible country.

If they want to have Brexit, they could handle the process without all of this irresponsible nonsense.

Two British friends of mine have applied for Irish citizenship by naturalisarion. They’ve no familial ties to Ireland but have lived here for years. They’ve done so precisely because they don’t feel they can trust the UK government to not just cause a major problem with the CTA or citizens rights. Obviously, the EU citizenship is also handy but, that’s not their primary motivation. They just don’t want to be pawns in some Tory Brexit fantasy football game and have their lives turned upside down by crazy politics they don’t agree with and have no control over.

If I were in the UK as an Irish citizen or Ireland as non-NI born British citizen long term, I would be ensuring I had dual citizenship and would be applying now, and not in a panic if it does turn weird.

MPFGLB

That former Greek finance minister is talking sense ...the EU have stacked the deck and hold all the cards

UK would be better backing off and taking the 5 year hiatus he suggests. At least the UK within itself could agree as to what it wants and have a better position

flaneur

I would expect that the talk of the Irish citizens’ rights is a subtle shot across the bow to attempt to knock Ireland into line.

There’s a fairly high risk any move like that could also unilaterally end the NI peace agreements by impinging on citizens’ rights.

Jim2007

MPFGLB wrote: »

That former Greek finance minister is talking sense ...the EU have stacked the deck and hold all the cards

UK would be better backing off and taking the 5 year hiatus he suggests. At least the UK within itself could agree as to what it wants and have a better position

You mean the guy who put ideology and party before country, tried to play the EU, failed miserably and then sailed of to make his fortune on the speaking circuit??

Leroy42

flaneur wrote: »

I would expect that the talk of the Irish citizens’ rights is a subtle shot across the bow to attempt to knock Ireland into line.

There’s a fairly high risk any move like that could also unilaterally end the NI peace agreements by impinging on citizens’ rights.

No way. Solo and others have been telling us that Irish rights won't be effected since they love us all so much.

This is only about immigration from Romania and the likes.

LeinsterDub

MPFGLB wrote: »

That former Greek finance minister is talking sense ...the EU have stacked the deck and hold all the cards

UK would be better backing off and taking the 5 year hiatus he suggests. At least the UK within itself could agree as to what it wants and have a better position

You can't complain the Deck is stacked just because your a terrible card player and your opposition has a much bigger stack of chips from the get-go.

Jim2007

Harika wrote: »

Also he suggests to stop Brexit negotiations and apply for an European Economic Agreement for five years as it solves all problems and restores sovereignty for the house of commons to discuss what they actually want.

As usual the guy is clueless! To avail be of the EEA agreement the UK would need to joint EFTA. Now as a Swiss why would I vote to accept having these clowns come in and mess up an organisation that is important to our trade strategy, only to have them PO again after five years. And Norway have expressed similar opinions in the past.

flaneur

Iceland would probably veto them due to the way they’ve been treated over the years. The cod wars then using anti terrorism legislation against Icelandic companies in the UK in 2008 to freeze assets.

UK - Icelandic relations aren’t great at all.

I’m also not really sure the UK would see eye to eye with the EFTA members. They’re very different to the mainstream of U.K. politics.

Samaris

Jim2007 wrote: »

As usual the guy is clueless! To avail be of the EEA agreement the UK would need to joint EFTA. Now as a Swiss why would I vote to accept having these clowns come in and mess up an organisation that is important to our trade strategy, only to have them PO again after five years. And Norway have expressed similar opinions in the past.

..You make a good point there. Otherwise, a five year transition for the Tories to figure out what the hell they're playing at sounds like an option.

Harika

Jim2007 wrote: »

As usual the guy is clueless! To avail be of the EEA agreement the UK would need to joint EFTA. Now as a Swiss why would I vote to accept having these clowns come in and mess up an organisation that is important to our trade strategy, only to have them PO again after five years. And Norway have expressed similar opinions in the past.

It would be only temporary and in the best interest of Switzerland as also for them a hard or a no deal brexit is not good. Sure there are a lot of parties that need to agree with that but as Varoufakis points out atm the EU holds the better cards. By simply going through the Brexit process UK won't be able to "win", except a hard or no deal Brexit is the final goal. Then all get what they want...
There was a reason why the EU wanted to have him removed at the end, as he is coming from game theory and applied it masterfully.

J Mysterio

Samaris wrote: »

Thanks for the links! Is there a way to link like that on a phone?

Copy paste? You can add URL tags.

Jaggo

whatever_ wrote: »

Either way, there will be no hard border unless the EU impose it. Like Hong Kong, this is starting to look like a triumph for British diplomacy. That was called “one country , two systems” .This is looking more like “two countries, one system”.

Surely the “two countries, one system” solution was the Irish Governments objective from the start?
I would have chalked this down as a massive coup for the Irish Government: from an issue no one thought was serious in the UK, to a policy no one had considered, leading to the adoption of the Irish proposal in total... how could this not be considered a massive success of Irish diplomacy?
The fact that everyone wins out of this is obviously the main benefit.

solodeogloria

Good afternoon!

flaneur wrote: »

I would expect that the talk of the Irish citizens’ rights is a subtle shot across the bow to attempt to knock Ireland into line.

There’s a fairly high risk any move like that could also unilaterally end the NI peace agreements by impinging on citizens’ rights.

You do know the report was commissioned by the Traveller Movement?

Unless they are in cahoots with Downing Street it isn't being raised because of the Tories.

Leroy42 wrote: »

No way. Solo and others have been telling us that Irish rights won't be effected since they love us all so much.

This is only about immigration from Romania and the likes.

The Government have been crystal clear that they want to guarantee the Common Travel Area and all rights associated with it.

Anything else would cause a constitutional crisis given the status of Northern Ireland.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris

Let us hope then, Solo.

Samaris

J Mysterio wrote: »

Copy paste? You can add URL tags.

Partner just showed me how to do it :P. I'm a technological neophyte when it comes to smartphones.

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!



You do know the report was commissioned by the Traveller Movement?

Unless they are in cahoots with Downing Street it isn't being raised because of the Tories.



The Government have been crystal clear that they want to guarantee the Common Travel Area and all rights associated with it.

Anything else would cause a constitutional crisis given the status of Northern Ireland.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

First they came for the Bulgarians, but I said nothing because I wasn't a Bulgarian....

Any Irish person who voted for Brexit deserves nothing less than deportation back to the old sod. Total betrayal of our EU cousins. It would be nice to see the smugness dissolve away if the UK does turn on the Irish in Britain next.

The Irish traveller community in GB have the same status as you Solo. If they see a legal problem then it'll be one for you too. I expect they would have kept their head below the parapet if there was nothing to worry about.

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

First they came for the Bulgarians, but I said nothing because I wasn't a Bulgarian....

Any Irish person who voted for Brexit deserves nothing less than deportation back to the old sod. Total betrayal of our EU cousins. It would be nice to see the smugness dissolve away if the UK does turn on the Irish in Britain next.

The Irish traveller community in GB have the same status as you Solo. If they see a legal problem then it'll be one for you too. I expect they would have kept their head below the parapet if there was nothing to worry about.

Good afternoon!

I'm not worried in the slightest for them or for me. The Government have been crystal clear on this.

I just try not to jump at every bit of noise.

Edit: the fact that you think people should be rounded up for their political views says more about you than anyone else.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I'm not worried in the slightest for them or for me. The Government have been crystal clear on this.

I just try not to jump at every bit of noise.

Edit: the fact that you think people should be rounded up for their political views says more about you than anyone else.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

This government of flip-floppers have been crystal clear on no Irish border and leaving the single market. Incompatible position. The commons select committee report says the same. God bless your faith in this government (and all future ones).

steddyeddy

It's amazing seeing the misconceptions and outright lies coming out of the British media and politicians this week. From SF pressure as a motive for the Irish border stance to complete idiocy about why we need a border for two different trading zones. Our former minister for agriculture, Simon Coveney made 30k a year Eton educated Jacob Mogg look like a dribbling simpleton.

axer

I see some talking about the Irish government overplaying their hand in the negotiations. I find it hard to understand this point of view. From what I can see ireland were quiet publicly but with a position made clear at the start but the British clearly completely ignored us and outright were hoping to use the north as a bargaining chip to get a FTA for the UK based on what they thought they would get for NI. The only way to counter this was to make it a much bigger deal publicly and spell it out for them. The only criticism I could make is that it might have been better to never suggest keeping the UK or NI in the customs union/single market as a fix but rather leave the British come to that conclusion. However I can see why the Irish Government felt they had to when the British were clearly not understanding the situation and the British media and politicians were just outright lying.

flaneur

Is there any negotiation though?
So far I see Ireland and everyone else being presented with a fait accompli (only without any facts) and if people raise any objections or concerns they're 'punishing the UK'.

They don't seem to realise they're effectively ripping up a massive trade agreement by saying they're leaving the customs union.

FrancieBrady

How will the news of this come?
Is there a press conference arranged?

flaneur

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How will the news of this come?
Is there a press conference arranged?

News of?

FrancieBrady

flaneur wrote: »

News of?

Of whether a deal/agreement to proceed to next stage has been reached.

flaneur

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of whether a deal/agreement to proceed to next stage has been reached.

I would assume some kind of joint announcement.

There’s no indication of it having reached that stage yet and I would suspect any movement on a solution for NI will be subject to threat of DUP walk out. It could be a deadlocked mess.

My hope is that it triggers a UK general election that gives the people a chance to rate the current government. Whatever about Brexit, it’s displaying shocking levels of incompetence.

Beechwoodspark

I think the schedule is something along the lines of:

Background of Continuing negotiations between the UK, Ireland and EU.

PM May to phone Varadkar this evening to discuss the negotiations.

Early tomorrow the Irish cabinet is to meet to discuss progress (or lack of progress).

Tomorrow PM May meets Juncker for a working lunch and discussion.

On Wednesday, in Brussels there will be confirmation of whether the negotiations have progressed sufficiently for the UK to be considered for the next phase.

Tusk confirmed on Friday that the proposal regarding the border has to be acceptable to ROI before any progress can be confirmed.

flutered

junker adresses the mep's at 10:am tomorrow, before his lunchdate with mrs may, read whatever you wish into this, sorry if posted previously

flutered

Samaris wrote: »

Tbh, negotiating with a Johnson/Anyone group would be worse. The current group are bad enough, picking the wrong battles to fight, ignoring battles that they must fight and attacking their allies half the time. Johnson would do all that while being Boris fecking Johnson and god help Britain if they are to rely on his expertise and common sense for their future. The man is a buffoon with an even greater lack of understanding of what the EU is and how it works than the rest of them.

That has been a millstone around the necks of the British negotiators so far, a complete lack of understanding of their negotiating opponants and how they work by those in charge of Brexit. And worse, a critical lack of trying to either.

the fact that the uk could only attract one proven negotiator tells its own story

suicide_circus

Does anyone else think that "Brexit" will become a byword for political impasse and uncertainty in years to come like the way Donnybrook became a word for a big fight?

Sam Russell

flaneur wrote: »

I would assume some kind of joint announcement.

There’s no indication of it having reached that stage yet and I would suspect any movement on a solution for NI will be subject to threat of DUP walk out. It could be a deadlocked mess.

My hope is that it triggers a UK general election that gives the people a chance to rate the current government. Whatever about Brexit, it’s displaying shocking levels of incompetence.

The DUP have only one bullet in their gun. Whether they point it at their own head, their feet or the Tories makes little difference. Once that bullet is fired, so will they be - there is no return to their current position of power and once they let that bullet go, their position in NI will come under fierce pressure from their 'friends' in the other Unionist parties, SF, and the Alliance.

The subsequent GE will show how much their Brexit game play has gained them.

Water John

Looks like May is taking personal control of the discussions.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/may-take-charge-brexit-talks-crucial-brussels-meetings-northern-ireland-border-issue

An Ciarraioch

Interesting report by Tommie Gorman on our four demands:

1. Transition period for any new arrangement.
2. Enshrining of GFA in any future treaty.
3. Preservation of CTA.
4. Maintenance of soft border, or continued NI implementation of SM and CU rules.

Leonard Hofstadter

Behind a paywall but the Telegraph is suggesting there won't be a deal done by tomorrow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/03/brexit-timetable-jeopardy-theresa-may-fails-reach-deal-irish/

The Rape of Lucretia

UK must hang tough on the Irish border. They are right to hold the line that it is linked to the trade solution. If they can somehow fudge that point along, it is the key to them getting a truly good trade deal for the UK - the have the cake and eat it scenario. If they manage it, then they will have cornered the EU as the baddie in piece - the EU will be the ones to put up a border on this island if they dont give the UK free access to the single market. It will have handed the gun that the UK currently has pointed at its own temple, to the EU, who will then have it pointed at theirs. So what ya gona do now EU - pull the trigger ? Smart strategy from the UK in fairness.

Nate--IRL--

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

UK must hang tough on the Irish border. They are right to hold the line that it is linked to the trade solution. If they can somehow fudge that point along, it is the key to them getting a truly good trade deal for the UK - the have the cake and eat it scenario. If they manage it, then they will have cornered the EU as the baddie in piece - the EU will be the ones to put up a border on this island if they dont give the UK free access to the single market. It will have handed the gun that the UK currently has pointed at its own temple, to the EU, who will then have it pointed at theirs. So what ya gona do now EU - pull the trigger ? Smart strategy from the UK in fairness.

The EU and Irish Government are well aware of this. This is a big reason they will not move talks on to trade until it is resolved.

Nate

Kermit.de.frog

Brexit timetable in jeopardy as Theresa May fails to reach deal on Irish border ahead of EU deadline


A headline in the Torygraph

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I've deleted a few posts. Please bear the following in mind:

• Do not post links without an opinion.
• Please use the proper name of publications and organisations. Nonsense like "Torygraph" is exactly what I am referring to.
• Please try to contribute more than one-liners like saying that Brexit is a disaster and nothing else.

Thanks.

Water John

Did the hardy boys (Mogg et al), think that they have pulled a great stunt by landing a new list of red lines on May's desk on the eve of her going to Brussels?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/tory-brexiters-set-new-red-lines-over-ecj-and-free-movement

Sending a clear signal they prefer a, No Deal result.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: I've deleted a few posts. Please bear the following in mind:

• Do not post links without an opinion.
• Please use the proper name of publications and organisations. Nonsense like "Torygraph" is exactly what I am referring to.
• Please try to contribute more than one-liners like saying that Brexit is a disaster and nothing else.

Thanks.

Can I ask you something?

There is a certain poster here who insists on starting every post with "Good morning, afternoon, evening!" and then ending his posts with "many thanks" and his username.

Any chance you can cut that nonsense out? It's very annoying, especially on mobile.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can I ask you something?

There is a certain poster here who insists on starting every post with "Good morning, afternoon, evening!" and then ending his posts with "many thanks" and his username.

Any chance you can cut that nonsense out? It's very annoying, especially on mobile.

He is not breaking the charter so I don't think so. I'll bring it up with the other mods. In any case, let's get back on topic.

ThisRegard

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He is not breaking the charter so I don't think so. I'll bring it up with the other mods. In any case, let's get back on topic.

It really is a pain in the ass, so much so that as soon as you see "Good..." I tend to skip the post entirely and only see the contents if another poster quotes and responds to it.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He is not breaking the charter so I don't think so. I'll bring it up with the other mods. In any case, let's get back on topic.

Thanks. I'm not the only one that has brought it up.

It's not needed to be formal like that. If we all did that the thread would be unreadable.

Thanks.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit timetable in jeopardy as Theresa May fails to reach deal on Irish border ahead of EU deadline


A headline in the Torygraph

Can also be said that the brexiteers have had a gun pointed to their heads by one of the ministers by saying if they dont back May then the whole thing might be stopped entirely. This alone might be the first sign that this joke of an excercise might be halted before it causes serious damage. It would also send the signal that Brexit might be aborted rather than a nodeal scenario be allowed to play out.

Samaris

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

UK must hang tough on the Irish border. They are right to hold the line that it is linked to the trade solution. If they can somehow fudge that point along, it is the key to them getting a truly good trade deal for the UK - the have the cake and eat it scenario. If they manage it, then they will have cornered the EU as the baddie in piece - the EU will be the ones to put up a border on this island if they dont give the UK free access to the single market. It will have handed the gun that the UK currently has pointed at its own temple, to the EU, who will then have it pointed at theirs. So what ya gona do now EU - pull the trigger ? Smart strategy from the UK in fairness.

I can't agree that it is a good strategy. Because everyone's back is against a wall and Britain has most to lose.

Ireland loses out both economically and socially if there's a hard border on the island. It is the worst case scenario. NI loses out on the same as well and the DUP propping up the Tories is a complication. Britain loses out to some extent, mostly through the damage it will cause NI. It will mostly stay out of the voting public's eye, however, although the added drain on funds might tell.

Ireland also loses out if there's a no-deal with Britain. Britain loses out badly if there's a no-deal.

Everyone loses out if they break WTO rules. Worst case for Britain scenario - starting out in trade at WTO rules, with a hard reset on all trading relationships (there are some rules about shocks and inertia that may allow for temporary continuance but with whacking great tariffs suddenly attached), no deal with the EU, 27 pissed off other countries, countless more -annoyed- countries given the confusion of the whole situation so far, sharp internal and external supply issues and a wide open border as a major ongoing breach of WTO regulations. The EU would also suffer, facing renegotiation with many other world countries over quotas and a major WTO breach that Ireland will have to fix. Still, while costly, it is in a better place than Britain.

In that scenario, Ireland hopes to save a customs union, at least with NI, pushes for sea border. It leaves some things up in the air, such as the thorny question of what goods NI actually ends up with the right to buy and sell on the island. That or Britain staying in the customs union are best case scenarios. Britain staying in wholesale would take a cataclysmic change or a second referendum in my view.

Britain is trying to pull this forward to leverage it in trade talks. The question of the border certainly shapes how trade will be carried out. This can be taken into account. But that just means that Britain should decide what its direction actually is and be able to manouver events towards that goal. They've climbed down on the divorce bill and apparently citizens is all sorted, in the hopes of the EU either just wanting this to end or being desperate enough for a deal to abandon Ireland. In doing so, they've made it almost impossible for it to happen. Ireland can and will veto if there's no solution put forward, although the EU's support means they will not have to. If Britain plunges out, that will force a speedy reconsideration, rather than Ireland losing out badly and Britain getting everything it wants. The other 27 countries have been in complete solidarity so far and the leadership has been publicly unwavering in support. There's also the narrative that the EU doesn't care about small countries, etc. The EU bloc loses out if it all goes pear-shaped, but it loses out worse in terms of internal stability if it proves the narrative and feeds anti-EU discontent, while not achieving anything of substance as Ireland would veto anyway.

DUP is a bit of a wild card. I'm not certain how directly it will affect things if they pull their support on the rumoured move towards a NI CU. There is also the argument that pulling their support risks Brexit and it's that or a hard border, which they have been publicly advocating against so far. Not sure anyone wants to be the first to do otherwise. Still, while it informs Britain's move, it is irrelevant to the others.

The ball is in Britain's court. Everyone's position is known apart from Britain's. There were no signs that this strategy was working throughout the autumn, bar the Irish question just not being answered. May's got a day to square the circle and more fool her if she chose to have the DUP as her ruler.

Maybe I'll eat my words tomorrow/Wednesday, but I don't think I will.

Kermit.de.frog

According to the Telegraph story Ireland wants "regulatory convergence" between north and south written in stone.

British govt sources annoyed - say Ireland has put on the table something no British govt could ever agree to.

Paper says UK officials very pessimistic about prospect of deal.