Brexit discussion thread II

Harika

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/937648900869099522

Wow, what a can of worms has been opened here. I am really interested now in the reactions from Scotland and the DUP.

Peregrinus

Scotland may ask for the same deal, but they won't get it. There's no GFA in Scotland; the EU doesn't have the same stake in the matter; relations with Ireland aren't in issue; it's not something Westminster needs to do in order to secure an EU trade agreement. So there won't be the same external pressure on the UK to concede the Scottish demand.

But the Scots will feel (rightly) pissed that what can be, and is being, done for NI is being denied to them, even though they were even more strongly opposed to Brexit than NI was.

FrancieBrady

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

solodeogloria

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

Good afternoon!

I'd be really really interested to see the terms actually agreed.

It seems the language has changed from no divergence to alignment on parts of custom union and single market required to keep an open border.

I'd be keen to see the consequences.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

steddyeddy

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. What get the DUP's goat is the suggestion that NI should stay in the customs union while GB leaves. If NI and GB were to stay in the customs union that would tick all the DUP's boxes. And ours, of course. The only reason anyone is proposing the sea border is because GB want out of the customs union, and this is a way they can do that which minimises damage to Ireland (north and south).

Which highlights the level of politics involved.

DUP "we want to stay in the single market unless the rest of the UK is leaving then we'll ignore the economics and reject the single market". Hopefully the latest developments indicate that the Tories have ignored them.

Samaris

Oh...crikey.

I don't see Scotland getting it though. Ireland has a strong position with EU backing. Scotland has been roundly (and to my mind, foolishly) ignored by Westminster. May could have headed off Scottish discontent by involving Sturgeon in talks about the redevolution of powers; given NS something to give Scotland, shown some benefits to the whole thing to the devolved governments (Wales is quietly antsy on the point too) She didn't, and has basically ignored the SNP.

Almost every step May's taken, she's set herself up for later problems. She set herself up for a lack of Scottish goodwill in the early summer and never tried to repair it. Not sure how much Wales trusts her either.

kowtow

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

What will be interesting is what the paper says - it must surely say something - about whether or how the UK means to actually police regulatory convergence. If there is anything substantial in that regard it will give us the best clue as to which way the UK are trying to go.

kowtow wrote: »

My guess is that they will end up with a fudge which guarantees no regulatory divergence in NI until such time as a mutually acceptable electronic whole Island border thingy is implemented. They'll aim to use the transition period to do much of the work for this. They'll offer a bit of cash to Ireland to help in the planning and we'll jump.

The alternative is we hold up the talks (which even if right, doesn't help us much) and they drive home the message that they have never had any intention of putting a border up and Ireland and the EU obviously want to.

Once the rest of the 27 have a sniff of the money the pressure will be on from a lot of directions.

Then on with the second phase where the EU go for the same amount of money again in return for financial services pass porting rights. In many ways that's where things get interesting.

FrancieBrady

steddyeddy wrote: »

Which highlights the level of politics involved.

DUP "we want to stay in the single market unless the rest of the UK is leaving then we'll ignore the economics and reject the single market". Hopefully the latest developments indicate that the Tories have ignored them.

If the DUP are on board then they have very much pulled the horns in.
May has called their bluff?

Enzokk

The sea border was the only possible option in case the UK leaves the customs union and single market and the UK wanted to have no border with Ireland. We have been saying that on here in the echo chamber for a long time. This will throw up interesting scenarios for the UK in future. If they leave the CU then Ireland/NI will put up checks on the ports with the UK. If the UK doesn't want to check its their choice.

What this does do for me is put Scotland on the radar to leave the UK. If they don't get the same deal (unlikely) and there is a economic shock once the UK leaves then support for leaving the UK will increase. The winners in this for me is the EU/Ireland (we know where the power lies in the negotiation), NI and the SNP. The losers are the UK (shows how weak their hand is again) and the DUP (they are only in a power situation because of the general election and it probably won't happen again so they cannot force a new election, yet they have to concede to the Irish position).

Leroy42

So NI will drift further away from Britain. They will also incense the Scots.

Seems like taking back control could end up with the breaking up of the union!

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

Panrich

Leroy42 wrote: »

So NI will drift further away from Britain. They will also incense the Scots.

Seems like taking back control could end up with the breaking up of the union!

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

I still think that the only way this flies for everyone is if the whole of the UK remains in the CU. It's a climbdown as it is, so it may as well be for sound reasoning.

blanch152

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ugh. Just breaking down this alleged text, it makes no sense and is a serious can-kick.


Well... aren't you (the UK) supposed to be putting forward a solution that we're going to consider agreeing to?


This would read so as to indicate that it means that the UK won't tax goods entering NI and will not conduct any border checks going into NI; but there is no indication that this would be agreed to from the EU the other way around (i.e. taxation/duty on goods from NI entering Ireland (the EU) or requirement to check passports (etc.)

This would also seem to fly entirely in the face of two of the major reasons for Brexit... migration into UK and the single market.


...whatever that means!?

I think the key part of that agreement is the last bit:

"that there continues to be [continued regulatory alignment with] those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA"

You actually need to examine the current areas of North-South cooperation and what is required by the GFA in that regard to understand what is covered.

"ANNEX
Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the
following:
1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
4. Environment - environmental protection, pollution, water quality, and
waste management.
5. Waterways - inland waterways.
6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers
and fraud control.
7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and
their successors.
9. Inland Fisheries.
10. Aquaculture and marine matters
11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder
issues.
12. Urban and rural development."

I don't see trade listed. Neither do I see industry or services listed. Co-operation on many of those is required by any two countries that share a border, from waterways that mark the border to environmental issues that don't understand a border to matching up transport links such as roads etc.

Agriculture and Education may be the big ones, but very little of education is covered by EU competencies. Would keep the DUP farming community onside and allow them to hold their vote together.

Enzokk

kowtow wrote: »

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

What will be interesting is what the paper says - it must surely say something - about whether or how the UK means to actually police regulatory convergence. If there is anything substantial in that regard it will give us the best clue as to which way the UK are trying to go.

But how do you have no border, which is the Irish position, to having an electronic one? The only way to ensure that there is no "friction" on the NI and Irish border would be for NI (or the whole UK) to stay in the customs union. It seems to me from examples that have been shown on here between countries that are in EFTA and the EU there is still holdups and checks.

steddyeddy

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

Sky Blog is reporting that Philippe Lambert MEP says that the DUP are on board. Not quite the same thing.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

Is there a difference between regulatory alignment of trade regulations and being in the customs union?

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

They won't.

First, whatever the agreement is - if there is one - will set out an extremely ambitious regime, with the complete co-operation of Ireland, to move towards streamlined electronic checks - a border solution 'for the future'. In theory such a solution, subject to whatever is agreed in phase two, would be the best thing all-round. My guess is that the majority of physical checks, such as are required, would take place at the sea ports but the customs border itself would be at the unmanned electronic frontier. That's the solution the UK always wanted but the EU and Dublin have thrown back at them.

The paragraph being quoted by rte as a guarantee, if that is all there is, has a lot of loopholes.

"In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

It doesn't bring convergence on all issues, only no divergence on those rules which underpin the GFA.. presumably that is something left open to definition or interpretation at a later stage. Incidentally the link to the GFA will have been included at the UK's request in any event, because Scotland doesn't have a GFA (yet!?!!) and therefore it is easy for Westminster to argue that this is a special case.

Quite a neat solution so far.

Peregrinus

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I'd be really really interested to see the terms actually agreed.

It seems the language has changed from no divergence to alignment on parts of custom union and single market required to keep an open border.

Yup. This looks to me like a distinction without a difference. It could be a changee in wording to enable one party to move away from a position that it would be embarrassing simply to reverse. But I could be missing something.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'd be keen to see the consequences.

The immediate consequence, of course, should be that the Brexit talks can proceed to phase 2 (the priorities for which have not yet been identified/agreed, but the UK will definitely want them to include a trade deal).

After that, don't hold your breath. It will be many months (at least) before we know what "regulatory alignment" looks like in detail.

Leroy42

steddyeddy wrote: »

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

But if all the regs are the same then what is difference? You have to follow all the same rules in order to move the goods into Ireland, I doubt many farmers/companies are going to select having multiple standards in their operations.

And it also begs the question of what the future of NI is in terms of the UK if Britain in willing to treat them as a special case outside of Britain. The very reason for the DUP saying they want to be the same as Britain is they understand that this move puts them ever more closer to Dublin than London. It will be Dublin, through membership of the EU, that will be a factor in the laws that cover trade not London.

Enzokk

On Daily Politics it was said Sammy Wilson said the regulatory alignment would be vetoed in Stormont.


Here is a tweet to confirm this,

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/937659983575027712

https://twitter.com/SMcC_TheDetail/status/937657513155203072

blanch152

kowtow wrote: »

They won't.

First, whatever the agreement is - if there is one - will set out an extremely ambitious regime, with the complete co-operation of Ireland, to move towards streamlined electronic checks - a border solution 'for the future'. In theory such a solution, subject to whatever is agreed in phase two, would be the best thing all-round. My guess is that the majority of physical checks, such as are required, would take place at the sea ports but the customs border itself would be at the unmanned electronic frontier. That's the solution the UK always wanted but the EU and Dublin have thrown back at them.

The paragraph being quoted by rte as a guarantee, if that is all there is, has a lot of loopholes.

"In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

It doesn't bring convergence on all issues, only no divergence on those rules which underpin the GFA.. presumably that is something left open to definition or interpretation at a later stage. Incidentally the link to the GFA will have been included at the UK's request in any event, because Scotland doesn't have a GFA (yet!?!!) and therefore it is easy for Westminster to argue that this is a special case.

Quite a neat solution so far.

It looks like a win for the UK to me.

They said you want to protect the GFA, therefore we will promise no divergence in Northern Ireland in respect of the limited issues covered by the GFA. This doesn't cover trade or industry or financial services etc. To keep an open border for everything else, we need a final trade agreement.

FrancieBrady

Jim Allister not happy.

TUV leader @JimAllister describes "no regulatory convergence" as "a stepping stone to a united Ireland" and "NI remaining in the EU." Big issues for the DUP today. #Brexit

Peregrinus

kowtow wrote: »

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

kowtow

Enzokk wrote: »

But how do you have no border, which is the Irish position, to having an electronic one? The only way to ensure that there is no "friction" on the NI and Irish border would be for NI (or the whole UK) to stay in the customs union. It seems to me from examples that have been shown on here between countries that are in EFTA and the EU there is still holdups and checks.

First you exempt small business, apparently 80% of the trade.

Secondly you have cameras at the border only, recording movements, combined with a comprehensive electronic self-declaration regime.

Thirdly you share all info in real time with the Irish, and vice versa, and allow joint customs patrols around the border both sides.

And fourth, any stopping and checking that must be done is done at the Irish and Northern Irish ports as part of the normal security checks which take place anyway (partly because of the separate all Island agri-food regime which exists today).

The CTA takes care of immigration, nothing was going to change there anyway.

kowtow

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

You could be right, but if that were the case surely we would be expecting a binding side agreement at this stage. So far as I am aware the UK position is that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed which includes money, citizens rights, etc. etc.?

Perhaps they'll do something binding?

blanch152

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think what has been (reportedly) agreed puts the kibosh on your post from a few days back. The UK is apparently accepting that even if there is no Brexit trade deal there will be no divergence etc etc. This means that the EU (and Ireland in particular) has no incentive to accept a trade deal which allows divergence, which means that if the UK wants a trade deal it has to be one which, on a continuing basis, rules out divergence. So this is not something which will endure for a transitional period only, I think. Post transitional period, there will be an open border.

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

ectoraige

Deleted User wrote: »

How would say CAP funding work in the north in a scenario like that?
Would the UK government have to maintain the various schemes?

Yes, and I'm sure you'll find funding comes from the EU. I've been saying for some time that the way around the DUP will involve a 'peace funds' and other schemes that will allow EU money to flow into the north.

I'm just wondering how much pressure the agriculture industry and farmers in NI have been putting on the DUP recently over all this. There was a farmer (from the Unionist background) on the TV over the weekend saying any imposition of a hard border was utter nonsense. Didn't Michael Gove say as well that farmers would need to prove they needed their subsistence payments to continue after Brexit?

FrancieBrady

Phillippe Lamberts again. Looks like the UK have blinked?

Belgian MEP @ph_lamberts who has seen draft joint statement tells me live on @SkyNews Britain & EU have agreed to a "special situation for Ireland" to avoid hard border. "uk government has come to terms with reality and that's a good thing".

steddyeddy

Enzokk wrote: »

Is there a difference between regulatory alignment of trade regulations and being in the customs union?

Yes. Regulations mean the same standards for services. If they're outside the single market there will be a divergence in trade tariffs.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Scotland may ask for the same deal, but they won't get it.

Yes, I posted some time back that the point of asking for the same deal is not to get the same deal, it is to be told "No" by those blackguards in Westminster, to stoke sentiment for an eventual rerun of indryref and a return to the EU.

sink

blanch152 wrote: »

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

That's not what I'm reading.

A spokesman for Mr Varadkar said Ireland was seeking “a commitment to avoid a hard Border in the withdrawal treaty, or ensuring that the rules and regulations of the single market and customs union cannot diverge.”

source

Sierra Oscar

DUP suspiciously silent at the moment. I'd say they've cut a deal with May for a bumper package for Northern Ireland.

It's an astounding result for Varadkar & Coveney too if they pull this off.

J Mysterio

blanch152 wrote: »

It looks like a win for the UK to me.

They said you want to protect the GFA, therefore we will promise no divergence in Northern Ireland in respect of the limited issues covered by the GFA. This doesn't cover trade or industry or financial services etc. To keep an open border for everything else, we need a final trade agreement.

This seems a salient point. Could finally be some clever maneuvering from London.

ThisRegard

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's an astounding result for Varadkar &
Coveney too if they pull this off.

Press conference at 2:30 from Varadkar so hopefully we'll find out for sure then, if it's not leaked before hand.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I posted some time back that the point of asking for the same deal is not to get the same deal, it is to be told "No" by those blackguards in Westminster, to stoke sentiment for an eventual rerun of indryref and a return to the EU.

Well, it's not that Scotland would be returning to the EU as it has never been a member. Some interim arrangement could be cobbled together but Scotland would go through some very hard times as the general consensus is that it would take at least four years for an independent Scotland to become a member. That's assuming that there would be no objections/veto from any existing EU members.

Samaris

Downing Street are saying "hold your horses, it's not agreed yet". Also snipping about RTE, so the fat lady hasn't warbled yet.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yes. Regulations mean the same standards for services. If they're outside the single market there will be a divergence in trade tariffs.

The RTE news story has the following quote,

The UK has conceded to EU negotiators that there will be no divergence of the rules covering the EU single market and customs union on the island of Ireland post Brexit, according to a draft negotiating text seen by RTÉ News.

Now the text may not say that NI will be in the customs union, but that surely reads that they will not have different rules so they will in effect be in the customs union and single market. Does that not mean there will not be a divergence in trade tariffs between NI and Ireland because NI will follow the rules of the CU and SM?

UK to make Brexit concessions over NI

Leroy42

blanch152 wrote: »

The UK accepts no divergence only on those issues of North-South co-operation under the GFA, a list I posted earlier. The agreement is silent on divergence on all other issues. What that means in terms of a hard or soft border won't be known until trade is agreed.

But don't they cover agriculture, which is a major component of trade for both NI and ROI.

So if there is to be no divergence, are the UK really saying that NI will now have to operate on different rules to the rest of the UK and how will that effect their ability to compete with mainland based agri?

FrancieBrady

Jeffery Donaldson seems to be in the dark on it.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-reacts-to-brexit-draft-report-that-uk-ready-to-concede-to-irelands-demands-over-border-36377055.html

The DUP has rejected a leaked draft agreement that reportedly shows the UK and Republic of Ireland officials have tentatively agreed to keep Northern Ireland’s regulations in line with those of European Union after Brexit.

J Mysterio

If this is really working out, what a blinder the government have played. From ongoing preparatory background diplomatic work around the world to private Brexit negotiations and public pronouncements.

IN the EU, Ireland has seemingly also become more important than we were hitherto and may increase our share of the vote/ influence in EU by taking some of Britain's rights.

United Ireland more likely again, by far.

I'll stop myself from jumping around but signs are very good indeed.

Gerry T

Leroy42 wrote:

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

But Europe has control??

Beechwoodspark

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

steddyeddy

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

DUP suspiciously silent at the moment. I'd say they've cut a deal with May for a bumper package for Northern Ireland.

It's an astounding result for Varadkar & Coveney too if they pull this off.

Sorry I can't link but Sammy Wilson on the radio said the deal will be vetoed at Stormont. Jim Allister, TUV says it amounts to a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

That Belfast Telegraph article seems to be suggesting they are far from being on board with it.

Leroy42

Gerry T wrote: »

But Europe has control??

Not sure what this is asking or point you are making. Can you elaborate please?

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It's not agreed yet but it's looking promising.

DUP Could yet throw their toys out of the pram

There are loads of distance to go. 1st off we don't really know the veracity of the story and certainly not the details.

Second, what will the Brexiteers in May's own party make of this? 3rd, what will the DUP make of it?

May is in no position to be agreeing to any deal

Beechwoodspark

May is the PM. If the Tories kick up now, the talks are thrown into further delay, rancour and anarchy.

J Mysterio

So.. DUP don't have a Veto anyway surely?

And if Stormont is revived and legislation has to pass through.. Maybe Brokenshire can force it first?

If DUP try and drop government on this issue, potentially Labour/ others can support Conservatives on this last motion in Parliament?

Sierra Oscar

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sorry I can't link but Sammy Wilson on the radio said the deal will be vetoed at Stormont. Jim Allister, TUV says it amounts to a united Ireland.

How can it be vetoed at Stormont if there is no Executive in place? The Stormont Assembly hasn't sat in a year. I don't see it sitting for some time now considering it pretty much suits nationalists to prevent the DUP having a veto.

ThisRegard

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/937663925482590208

That made me laugh as I can imagine a lot of the hardcore Brexiters we've seen and heard across the different media may now look like they're sucking lemons.

Obviously not counting chickens before they hatch but it's looking optimistic.