Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady

MBSnr wrote: »

I'm not sure. Foster's voice seemed to be emotional. Could be she was containing her rage...

If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.

Professor Moriarty

MBSnr wrote: »

I'm not sure. Foster's voice seemed to be emotional. Could be she was containing her rage...

Betrayal can make you very angry...

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.

Something like "I call your bluff"?

Jayop

blanch152 wrote: »

No, it wouldn't. The UK staying in the customs union would be a great success for Ireland.

Ah here an hour ago you were saying this was a great deal for the UK and they got one over on Ireland and the EU. I'd hardly take anything you say on board.

MBSnr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the deal is as reported I can't fathom how May has squared it with the DUP unless she has told them something privately.

Hmm perhaps there's an internal rage! She's caught between trusting the Tories on a possible 'private' agreement or forcing an election, if they pull out of propping up the Gov... Either way it's a gamble and they'll probably lose out.

Itssoeasy

So it appears the DUP aren't happy with the Westminster government who seem to have ignored their calls for there to not be a special solution.

Jayop

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would be better for us if all the UK stay in. Miserable for the Brexiters if that happens.

Na. Put a big old border between England and NI. I'd take that over anything else.

Harika

London to leave England?

https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/937687487488692231

Harika

Harika wrote: »

London to leave England?

https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/937687487488692231

At this stage, it will be Newcastle leaving the eu, everyone else staying.

Sierra Oscar

It looks like the DUP aren't onboard afterall. I hope the Irish Government wasn't briefing too hard before a deal had been sealed.

Jayop

That would be hilarious. A big border wall all around the Circular Road.

kowtow

Harika wrote: »

London to leave England?

https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/937687487488692231

If the limited paragraph reported by RTE is what he is talking about then either he is in fantasy land or he doesn't understand what it means.

"In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

Professor Moriarty

Top three current headlines from the Daily Express:

‘I like Mondays!’ Donald Tusk REVELS in plan to snatch Northern Ireland in Brexit deal

We will NOT accept THIS! DUP EXPLODE over May’s Northern Ireland Brexit compromise

Brexit deal LIVE: May gives Juncker ALL he wants for progress


Easy to see why the Leave campaign won.

FrancieBrady

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It looks like the DUP aren't onboard afterall. I hope the Irish Government wasn't briefing too hard before a deal had been sealed.

Yeh there is a caution to keep the powder dry on this.
Leo's speech delayed now too.

ThisRegard

Press conference delayed, spanner in the works maybe.

edit: Apparently awaiting something from Brussels is the reason.

blanch152

Jayop wrote: »

Ah here an hour ago you were saying this was a great deal for the UK and they got one over on Ireland and the EU. I'd hardly take anything you say on board.

Hang on, you need to read my posts again.

I don't read the current deal as circulated as meaning the North remaining in the customs union, hence that is a win for the UK (not necessarily a good deal for the UK let alone a great deal as Brexit is stupid). Limiting regulatory alignment to those issues covered by North-South co-operation and the GFA leaves an awful lot of areas where there could be regulatory disalignment and therefore requiring a border, how soft or hard depending on the extent of alignment.

However, if the deal means the UK remaining in the customs union (and I don't read it as that), then that is a good deal for Ireland.

You need to differentiate between my analysis of the what the deal actually is and my view of what would or wouldn't be a good deal for Ireland. You also need to differentiate between what is seen a win for one side and what I believe is a good deal for either side.

Samaris

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So it appears the DUP aren't happy with the Westminster government who seem to have ignored their calls for there to not be a special solution.

Well, they never came up with a viable alternative. Sea border isn't great, but it became the only option on the table because other options weren't put forward.

Well, it was;
-Sea border, aka reg convergeance bt RoI and NI, GB does its own thing
-UK stays in CU.
-Hard border, drastically increasing potential no deal.

Squaring the DUP circle and avoiding the looming Scottish problem likely means option 2, but May's going to have a divil of a time with that given the politics have been steered towards the idea that GB can do just fine with no deal.

steddyeddy

Arlene says "The Democratic Unionist Party will not accept any kind of regulatory divergence” in customs regulations and trade practices between the North and the Republic of Ireland, the party’s leader Arlene Foster said today." I bet the UK are delighted that NI is a part of the union.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/foster-we-won-t-agree-to-separating-ni-economically-or-politically-from-uk-1.3314974

steddyeddy

blanch152 wrote: »

Hang on, you need to read my posts again.

I don't read the current deal as circulated as meaning the North remaining in the customs union, hence that is a win for the UK (not necessarily a good deal for the UK let alone a great deal as Brexit is stupid). Limiting regulatory alignment to those issues covered by North-South co-operation and the GFA leaves an awful lot of areas where there could be regulatory disalignment and therefore requiring a border, how soft or hard depending on the extent of alignment.

However, if the deal means the UK remaining in the customs union (and I don't read it as that), then that is a good deal for Ireland.

You need to differentiate between my analysis of the what the deal actually is and my view of what would or wouldn't be a good deal for Ireland. You also need to differentiate between what is seen a win for one side and what I believe is a good deal for either side.

It's hard to do that though Blanch. You often seem to call for what's better (in your view) for Northern Ireland rather than the republic.

selectamatic

Harika wrote: »

London to leave England?

Britain first will be having nightmares of a London ran by supreme leader Khan and governed by sharia law.

joe40

The hardline brexiteers are always on about controlling immigration and taking back their borders.
So even if NI stays in customs union to ensure easy passage of goods between North and south, will they still not need  "border controls" to prevent illegal immigration from the EU via Ireland. Will brexit become a total farce?

CelticRambler

kowtow wrote: »

Secondly you have cameras at the border only, recording movements, combined with a comprehensive electronic self-declaration regime.

How long do you think those cameras would remain functional? Here in France, they tried something similar (for "polluter pays" road tax on HGVs) and despite getting the infrastructure in place ahead of time and under budget, we still ended up with a 1bn€ bill for a cancelled contract and no revenue because one section of the community decided they weren't going to cooperate.



Does anyone seriously think that spy-cameras on the border would be fare any better? And why bother, when it would be so much easier to place all the necessary controls at the existing ports of entry?

Samaris

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's hard to do that though Blanch. You often seem to call for what's better (in your view) for Northern Ireland rather than the republic.

I suppose we have GB perspective, RoI perspective, NI-R and NI-U perspectives in here, and what's good for one is a stepdown for another. I do see Problems for NI with this arrangement, albeit less than for other outcomes, bar UK just staying in the CU.

Ewan Hoosarmi

joe40 wrote: »

The hardline brexiteers are always on about controlling immigration and taking back their borders.
So even if NI stays in customs union to ensure easy passage of goods between North and south, will they still not need "border controls" to prevent illegal immigration from the EU via Ireland. Will brexit become a total farce?

Too late.

vicwatson

joe40 wrote: »

Will brexit become a total farce?

It has already

Samaris

CelticRambler wrote: »

[...]

Does anyone seriously think that spy-cameras on the border would be fare any better? And why bother, when it would be so much easier to place all the necessary controls at the existing ports of entry?

That issue of the survival of anything that looks like a border control but if tech has been niggling at me too. I read one article in which a local to the border region (Monaghan, I think) was saying that speed cameras don't survive being put up around there so I'm unsure how e-controls are expected to fare any better.

The sea border gives me a further niggle of that we are now absolutely trusting Britain to keep its controls tight and I don't see these controls being popular.

Still, perhaps these problems can be ironed out. Assuming the DUP don't implode in a shower of brimstone.

So May just has to give Scotland the chance to be in the customs union, and then Arlene has to shut up about NI being the same as the rest of the UK?

FrancieBrady

Full DUP statement

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/937692999697485825/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-may-heads-for-crunch-talks-on-brexit-deal-11156136

barry181091

What exactly is the point of this whole process if they have conceded so much already? What exactly will the benefit be for being a totally independent country of any union here when you have to agree to so much?

This is obviously rhetorical but the whole thing has become, essentially, a skit.

LeinsterDub

joe40 wrote: »

The hardline brexiteers are always on about controlling immigration and taking back their borders.
So even if NI stays in customs union to ensure easy passage of goods between North and south, will they still not need  "border controls" to prevent illegal immigration from the EU via Ireland. Will brexit become a total farce?

This has been covered several times before on this thread. The British position to essentially push the border controls to employers, landlords and service providers. People will be required to present ID to avail of these services and utilities.

Kiith

Statement from Leo was due at 2:30pm, but has had to be redrafted.

FrancieBrady

Kiith wrote: »

Statement from Leo was due at 2:30pm, but has had to be redrafted.

Link?

I thought it was because of the protocol. Lunch hasn't finished with Juncker and May yet.

Kiith

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Link?

I thought it was because of the protocol. Lunch hasn't finished with Juncker and May yet.

Sorry, saw it on RTE from Coleman O'Sullivan

https://twitter.com/colmanos/status/937694160789831680/photo/1

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Full DUP statement

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/937692999697485825/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-may-heads-for-crunch-talks-on-brexit-deal-11156136

Not incompatible with the way I read the reported agreement. If regulatory alignment between North and South is limited to the issues in the GFA (and the extent to which they have been developed to date) and that extends across the UK, it is not a huge amount of ground to concede. Both the DUP and May will be able to agree with that.

If however, the reported agreement means the North is fully staying within the customs union (as it is being spun by Irish reporters), then that is a problem for May.

solodeogloria

blanch152 wrote: »

Not incompatible with the way I read the reported agreement. If regulatory alignment between North and South is limited to the issues in the GFA (and the extent to which they have been developed to date) and that extends across the UK, it is not a huge amount of ground to concede. Both the DUP and May will be able to agree with that.

If however, the reported agreement means the North is fully staying within the customs union (as it is being spun by Irish reporters), then that is a problem for May.

Good afternoon!

Yes, we need the details. This is why I said that it's possible that services would be able to diverge.

The wording isn't clear enough. There's a couple of pieces in the jigsaw.

If the arrangement means that there needs to be a sea border that will annoy the DUP.

If the arrangement means that the UK as a whole is going to be a part of the customs union or single market that basically means there was no point leaving the EU. The Brexiteer Tories will make the "bastards" in Major's cabinet look remarkably pleasant.

It's all in the detail. That isn't clear yet.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Leroy42

DUP are in a really difficult position. They stated that they wanted to be treated the same as the rest of the UK, since even though NI had voted to remain the UK had voted to leave.

Now the UK has decided (it appears at this point anyway) thourgh the elected government of the UK, that NI will actually be treated differently.

So now DUP want to go directly against what the UK actually wants! The problem with being ruled by others, as Ireland have found out many times and as recently as the bank bailout, is that your particular concerns are not always top of the list.

BorderGap

Seems to be a short term solution - In absence of agreed solutions UK will ensure that there is continued regulatory alignment from those rules of internal market and customs union which, now or in the future, support North South co-operation and protection of the Good Friday agreement.

LeinsterDub

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This has been covered several items before on this thread. The British position to essentially push the border controls to employers, landlords and service providers. People will be required to present ID to avail of these services and utilities.

and as has already been pointed out, this is exactly what the UK does today (and Ireland).

kowtow

Not sure if all the delays are genuine or whether all sides want to convey the feeling of high drama so they all go home with a victory.

Either that or Juncker wants to have lunch twice.

FrancieBrady

Beginning to look like this is a fudge,

LeinsterDub

Aegir wrote: »

and as has already been pointed out, this is exactly what the UK does today (and Ireland).

That's what I was saying .

josip

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beginning to look like this is a fudge,

Was there ever any doubt?
Politics is simply selling a non-optimal arrangement to your own supporters.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beginning to look like this is a fudge,

I reckon so. Bojan Pancevski's latest musings are interesting.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/dec/04/theresa-may-heads-to-brussels-hoping-to-conclude-phase-one-of-brexit-talks-politics-live

EDIT: I may be utterly wrong but I'm beginning to think that we won't have deal re the border till 2019 or after.

FrancieBrady

Now the Welsh. Who haven't been heard from in centuries. Carwyn Jones:

We cannot allow different parts of the UK to be more favourably treated than others. If one part of the UK is granted continued participation in the Single Market & Customs Union, then we fully expect to be made the same offer.

Harika

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Now the Welsh. Who haven't been heard from in centuries. Carwyn Jones:

It is like the single market and customs union is something you really want to be in. At least now we know that all parts of england, except of NI want to stay in the SM+CU, but as everyone else is in it, NI also wants to stay in. :pac:

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Now the Welsh. Who haven't been heard from in centuries. Carwyn Jones:

Didn't the welsh vote to leave? Then how do they consider staying in the CU are beneficial?

awec

This post has been deleted.

FrancieBrady

Sammy's is not seeing it as a fudge.

https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/937708261675032576

josip

josip wrote: »

Was there ever any doubt?
Politics is simply selling a non-optimal arrangement to your own supporters.

As has oft been said in these negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, so whatever "Regulatory alignment" means, it means nothing until the final deal is struck and there is ink, dried, on paper.

To me, this smacks of a proper, pragmatic, deal struck days or weeks ago by civil servants, but the politicians leaving it to the eleventh hour so they can announce it and be seen to be saving the day.

Leroy42

The only issue with that Aegir, is that for many Brexit hardliners anything even remotely seen as pragmatic or negotiation will be seen as a total climb down.

Recall that when Art 50 was triggered it was that the UK were going to make the demands, that the EU were going to be the ones pleading for the UK for stay or given them anything to at least stay friends.