Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady

Interesting. Juncker and May statement in 5 minutes ahead of Leo's statement which was due to be first originally

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

As has oft been said in these negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, so whatever "Regulatory alignment" means, it means nothing until the final deal is struck and there is ink, dried, on paper.

To me, this smacks of a proper, pragmatic, deal struck days or weeks ago by civil servants, but the politicians leaving it to the eleventh hour so they can announce it and be seen to be saving the day.

Doubt it, looking at the DUP reaction.

Beechwoodspark

Apparently May to give televised statement in next 10 mins.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

The only issue with that Aegir, is that for many Brexit hardliners anything even remotely seen as pragmatic or negotiation will be seen as a total climb down.

Recall that when Art 50 was triggered it was that the UK were going to make the demands, that the EU were going to be the ones pleading for the UK for stay or given them anything to at least stay friends.

yes, but sooner or later the grown ups had to take control.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Doubt it, looking at the DUP reaction.

who?

As I said in my previous post, the grown ups are talking now.

Leroy42

True, but May has up to this point shown no signs of being able to take control. Even the DUP statement mentioned Tory backbenchers on their side.

May has simply no ability to deliver on this

Samaris

May due to speak in 10mins to camera, so we'll see.

If it is what the draft wording says, it's no fudge. Even if the UK falls out of Europe with no deal, regulatory convergence must be kept on both parts of the island. That will be acceptable to the Irish government. We never needed to have every detail ironed out to move ahead, but this gives clarity and solid, in-writing assurance, which was what Ireland was always requesting.

As if to whether the DUP can swallow it, we'll see. And what the hell is London doing demanding the same deal as Scotland and Wales are demanding? This is just getting silly..

Itssoeasy

I find it very funny that the question of the border with the north is only dawning on some people in the U.K. now. This border has been then since the 1920s. They clearly didn't think it through and it's not the republics problem. The British people voted for brexit so it's their problem to sort out.

Samaris

Update on Guardian rolling coverage from BBC - no deal today.

ancapailldorcha

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I find it very funny that the question of the border with the north is only dawning on some people in the U.K. now. This border has been then since the 1920s. They clearly didn't think it through and it's not the republics problem. The British people voted for brexit so it's their problem to sort out.

Daniel Hannan recently tweeted that there hasn't been an Irish border in nearly a century. This is the sort of mindset you're dealing with here.

cml387

Katya Adler (BBC) saying no deal today.

FrancieBrady

Official. No deal today - Juncker

I just read this on the BBC

She will be accompanied by European Commission boss Jean-Claude Juncker, with whom she has spent the last couple of hours locked in talks.

wouldn't it be great if they were locked and the pair of them did a televised statement off their faces after a few too many Chablis at lunch time.

FrancieBrady

Juncker:

Positions narrowing, I’m still confident we can reach sufficient progress before December Council... PM: progress made, we want to move forward together sone issues require further consultation

devnull

If only Theresa May did not call an election, the DUP wouldn't be a factor and we'd probably have had a deal today.

Half of the problems with this issue are her own making.

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

If only Theresa May did not call an election, the DUP wouldn't be a factor and we'd probably have had a deal today.

Half of the problems with this issue are her own making.

Pressure on the DUP for the next few days I reckon. Will they or won't they.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Pressure on the DUP for the next few days I reckon. Will they or won't they.

will they or won't they what?

withdraw support for the government, force a general election and see a pro united Ireland Labour leader become prime minister?

unlikely

ArmaniJeanss

Samaris wrote: »

And what the hell is London doing demanding the same deal as Scotland and Wales are demanding? This is just getting silly..

That was just Sadiq Khan having a laugh, not an actual serious suggestion so much as pointing out the anomaly.

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

will they or won't they what?

withdraw support for the government, force a general election and see a pro united Ireland Labour leader become prime minister?

unlikely

If they maintain their position there will be no stage 2. Will they or won't they allow the UK to progress, I suppose.

Mr.Nice Guy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Pressure on the DUP for the next few days I reckon. Will they or won't they.

Pressure on Varadkar as well. Looks like the Irish government will be asked to be more flexible with the language that will make up a potential deal. I reckon it will probably wind up as "regulatory cooperation" which will fall short of what the government wanted but which the DUP will be satisfied with. They can then claim that they got Dublin to climb down which will play well with their constituents.

Big test of nerve facing the Irish government if the EU start indicating they are ready to move things on.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Pressure on Varadkar as well. Looks like the Irish government will be asked to be more flexible with the language that will make up a potential deal. I reckon it will probably wind up as "regulatory cooperation" which will fall short of what the government wanted but which the DUP will be satisfied with. They can then claim that they got Dublin to climb down which will play well with their constituents.

Big test of nerve facing the Irish government if the EU start indicating they are ready to move things on.

Where is that from?

Un1corn

UK government collapse in 5 .... 4.... 3...

Samaris

devnull wrote: »

If only Theresa May did not call an election, the DUP wouldn't be a factor and we'd probably have had a deal today.

Half of the problems with this issue are her own making.

It's rather amazing how she has brought so much of this on herself. She inherited Brexit, fair enough. Risked the election, had to go to the DUP, knowing that the Irish border problem was incoming. Could have worked to placate Sturgeon and improve her situation vis a vis the rather awkward question of another Scottish referendum by working with her on the question of devolved powers. Instead she worked over her and has been having a quiet background squabble with Scotland and Wales on refusing to write anything down regarding what powers the devolved administrations will regain, despite assurances that England wants the same thing and it will be fine (familiar tactic there). Much like RoI, Scotland and Wales didn't buy it either.

And so here she is in a position where even the city of London is demanding the same deal as NI gets, the DUP hopping mad and the red lines are binding her most.

awec

This post has been deleted.

ancapailldorcha

Un1corn wrote: »

UK government collapse in 5 .... 4.... 3...

Less nonsense please.

Samaris

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

That was just Sadiq Khan having a laugh, not an actual serious suggestion so much as pointing out the anomaly.

The way things are going, I'm not entirely sure! I hope it was a piss-take at least.

Leroy42

I don't see there being any pressure on Ireland. The ball seems very squarely in the UK's, & May's court. A potential compromise has been put forward, discussed and it seems broadly accepted.

Why would Ireland need to climb down if they have already agreed themselves and the EU on it?

blanch152

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Pressure on Varadkar as well. Looks like the Irish government will be asked to be more flexible with the language that will make up a potential deal. I reckon it will probably wind up as "regulatory cooperation" which will fall short of what the government wanted but which the DUP will be satisfied with. They can then claim that they got Dublin to climb down which will play well with their constituents.

Big test of nerve facing the Irish government if the EU start indicating they are ready to move things on.

The problem the Irish government have (and the DUP statement hinted at this) is the GFA only provides for limited North-South co-operation.

If it is possible for the Assembly to be given a veto on any divergence from the UK to stay with the EU, and if it is possible for the whole UK to agree to no regulatory divergence from the EU in a very small number of areas covered by the GFA, then the DUP can live with it, but Ireland will have limited recourse to claiming the GFA is being broken and will have to put up with whatever border controls are consequentially required.

FrancieBrady

If the UK were up for the reported deal the DUP will be having to face certain realities this evening.

Mr.Nice Guy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where is that from?

Bojan Pancevski said earlier that:

The original demand of "no divergence" for NI - which would arguably mean staying within the EU system - morphed into "alignment." The latter can mean all things to all people. That's how the EU works, and always narrowly avoids disasters.

And if reports are to be believed, it's the DUP blocking a deal as things stand. The Irish government will presumably then be asked to agree to some different wording that the DUP can get on board with.

Un1corn

It is a genuine possibility at the moment. The DUP have flat out stated they will refuse this deal. Even some conservatives have agreed with the DUP. You have Scotland, Wales and London calling for the same deal that NI is getting(which is great). But the DUP don't want it. You cannot rationalise with them. I fully believe it is not beyond them to withdraw support. It might actually placate the DUP a bit if they in the same boat as Scotland and Wales. They will not be any different to the rest of the UK. Interesting times and a UK Government collapse and general election would be very entertaining.

awec

This post has been deleted.

devnull

At the moment the DUP Brexit spokesperson is on Sky News and appears to be suggesting that the whole issue is being exaggerated by Leo who is playing political games and it's not an issue at all and the Irish government is a bunch of "political chancers"

Leroy42

Un1corn wrote: »

It is a genuine possibility at the moment. The DUP have flat out stated they will refuse this deal. Even some conservatives have agreed with the DUP. You have Scotland, Wales and London calling for the same deal that NI is getting(which is great). But the DUP don't want it. You cannot rationalise with them. I fully believe it is not beyond them to withdraw support. It might actually placate the DUP a bit if they in the same boat as Scotland and Wales. They will not be any different to the rest of the UK. Interesting times and a UK Government collapse and general election would be very entertaining.

That is all very true but it is a problem the UK have to deal with. Do they annoy the DUP with the goal of getting a better overall deal or do they fully back the union and bring the real possibilility of no deal and all the problems that that will bring about.

NI is tiny compared to the rest of the UK, would the rest of the UK be happy to put all of them into danger just to save a tiny sector of it?

flaneur

The DUP aren't really in that powerful a position when you think about it.

If they pull the plug on Theresa May and the Tories, they will be facing a very left wing Labour government and a PM who is extremely friendly with Sinn Fein.

May really should put it to them that if they don't accept the deal, they can deal with Corbyn.

Un1corn

flaneur wrote: »

The DUP aren't really in that powerful a position when you think about it.

If they pull the plug on Theresa May and the Tories, they will be facing a very left wing Labour government and a PM who is extremely friendly with Sinn Fein.

May really should put it to them that if they don't accept the deal, they can deal with Corbyn.

I dunno. I am not sure Corbyn can be elected. It is a bit of a mess over there at the minute. I couldn't vote for Labour or the Tories in good conscience.

Itssoeasy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Daniel Hannan recently tweeted that there hasn't been an Irish border in nearly a century. This is the sort of mindset you're dealing with here.

Yeah I saw that. It does show a ignorance of the northern Irish border which is startling.

FrancieBrady

flaneur wrote: »

The DUP aren't really in that powerful a position when you think about it.

If they pull the plug on Theresa May and the Tories, they will be facing a very left wing Labour government and a PM who is extremely friendly with Sinn Fein.

May really should put it to them that if they don't accept the deal, they can deal with Corbyn.

Absolutely. It has to be end game for May now?

Itssoeasy

Sammy Wilson has called the Irish government a "bunch of political chancers."

devnull

awec wrote: »

She could risk it and call the DUPs bluff but I don't think she's in a particularly strong position herself.

Thing is, what does the DUP have to gain from walking out? Sure, they're gonna threaten it left right and center and use it as a bargaining chip, but if they walk away then they're not going to be better off, simply going to be worse off.

Theresa May caused the situation herself as I've previously said and it's clear that she and the Tory and Vote Leave grandees all didn't appreciate the situation with Northern Ireland and thought it would be a walk in the park.

One thing is for sure, the government in Westminster is totally dysfunctional and the national interest comes way down the line of priorities as she's spending all of her time fighting internal battles both in her part and the DUP.

Mr.Nice Guy

flaneur wrote: »

The DUP aren't really in that powerful a position when you think about it.

If they pull the plug on Theresa May and the Tories, they will be facing a very left wing Labour government and a PM who is extremely friendly with Sinn Fein.

May really should put it to them that if they don't accept the deal, they can deal with Corbyn.

Is it that big a problem though? If their choices are:

a) Go along with a Tory deal that they insisted all along would never happen, thus leaving themselves open to the charge back home of weakening the Union.

or

b) Bring down the government, see Corbyn come into power who will likely bring about the same deal as May, and then position themselves as having put the Union first only for that pesky Corbyn, "the IRA sympathiser", to come in and scupper their plans...

It's obvious to me that option B will play far better with their base. Their entire strategy is built on the blame game and others being at fault.

Don't forget the Ulster Unionists argued for Remain (albeit half-heartedly). If an arrangement emerges that seems to suggest NI is in a weaker constitutional position than it was previously they will have to carry the can for that. And they can't stomach that.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If they maintain their position there will be no stage 2. Will they or won't they allow the UK to progress, I suppose.

I don't see how the DUP can possibly stop it.

awec wrote: »

There is going to be serious pressure on May now for the next few days given there was no deal made. With today's leaks she'll get hit hard from the right. Interesting week ahead.

She's going to be asked for clarity on what her position is on the border issue.

Potentially todays leaks were either to soften the ground or to take the temperature on what would happen in that scenario.

for the first time in these negotiations, Junckers has been praising May. None of the petty little leaks belittling her, this time he started by saying she is a tough negotiator.

I'm convinced the deal is done, signed, sealed and delivered, but Junckers realises the political pressure May will have, so they have agreed to buy some time.

flaneur

Well, plan B would be better for everyone, so bring it on!

awec

This post has been deleted.

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely. It has to be end game for May now?

Unfortunately it seems that when push comes to shove she values power over the interests of the country, hence the reason she is bowing to the DUP now and called a pointless general election that has simply harmed the UK.

blanch152

devnull wrote: »

Thing is, what does the DUP have to gain from walking out? Sure, they're gonna threaten it left right and center and use it as a bargaining chip, but if they walk away then they're not going to be better off, simply going to be worse off.

Theresa May caused the situation herself as I've previously said and it's clear that she and the Tory and Vote Leave grandees all didn't appreciate the situation with Northern Ireland and thought it would be a walk in the park.

One thing is for sure, the government in Westminster is totally dysfunctional and the national interest comes way down the line of priorities as she's spending all of her time fighting internal battles both in her part and the DUP.

Thing is, we heard before lunch the deal was done, the DUP threw a fit, and then it was off, conveniently there were now two different issues not agreed, so the DUP have played their cards well to date. Ensuring the Assembly gets a veto on any divergence from the rest of the UK and that the deal only applies to GFA issues would probably be enough to seal it, after all they are signed up to the GFA.

flaneur

devnull wrote: »

Unfortunately it seems that when push comes to shove she values power over the interests of the country, hence the reason she is bowing to the DUP now.

She's also extremely unlike Thatcher, despite the regular comparisons I've seen which are entirely based on her gender. Thatcher, as loathsome as she could be, did not tolerate rogue ministers and unruly back benchers and ran the tories with an iron fist, which seems to be the only way you can keep them from wrecking the country with in fighting and jingoism.

There are so many factions in that party and so much backstabbing that it's just a complete mess at the moment. Unfortunately, Labour's not a hell of a lot better - just different issues.

May's 'leadership' has been entirely about clinging to power and clutching at straws and it's done a lot of damage.

FrancieBrady

More intrigue. Must have been quite a day.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/937681755120852993

devnull

Un1corn wrote: »

I dunno. I am not sure Corbyn can be elected. It is a bit of a mess over there at the minute. I couldn't vote for Labour or the Tories in good conscience.

As someone who lived in the UK for a few years I always voted Labour, but honestly I wouldn't be able to do vote for either the Tories or Labour right now, because as someone who is generally in the center of the political spectrum I feel Labour have drifted too far left and Tories are too much to the right.

I'd probably vote Lib Dems if I had to, not because I'm their biggest fan but simply because they are the only party anywhere near the center.

ancapailldorcha

flaneur wrote: »

She's also extremely unlike Thatcher, despite the regular comparisons I've seen which are entirely based on her gender. Thatcher, as loathsome as she could be, did not tolerate rogue ministers and unruly back benchers and ran the tories with an iron fist, which seems to be the only way you can keep them from wrecking the country with in fighting and jingoism.

May's 'leadership' has been entirely about clinging to power and clutching at straws and it's done a lot of damage.

Thatcher enjoyed a much stronger position. The country was doing well economically (Well, the Tory voting bits anyway), she won elections thus obviating the need for deals handing small parties disproportionate levels of control and is considered by many to be an excellent PM though this is debatable. I can't see May being remembered that way.