Brexit discussion thread II

ThisRegard

awec wrote: »

I haven't heard any fingers being pointed at the Irish Government by the UK.

The DUP are the only ones I see pointing fingers and that's more out of desperation.

I meant that the person I was quoting was continuing to try fault the Irish Government, not that the UK continue to do so.

First Up

All fairly predictable. The important bits are (a) the unanimity on the EU side, with Ireland's interests at the centre and (b) that May recognised and agreed that if there is a divergence of standards or regulations between the EU and UK, there has to be a border somewhere.

So its for May and the UK to sort out. The agreement drafted today is the only one that will work - other than a complete U-turn on the CU or Single Market. All we need now is a UK government that accepts that.

cml387

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is high time Theresa threw her hat at it.

The whole thing is stalled now. I can't see Dublin moving.

Exactly. Because there's no way the Irish government can be seen to back down now because the DUP say no. It would be political suicide for Leo.

Blowfish

cml387 wrote: »

Yes but.

It may seem petty but we know how these things work after years of the peace process. Anything that is immediately acceptable to one side must by definition throw the other side into fear confusion and doubt. And it would have been wiser to say nothing until after Junker and May's meeting. The DUP were responding to RTE reports about the agreement. There would have been no need for the phonecall interruption had the DUP not been stirred up.

The DUP would shoot the agreement down either way, regardless of when they found out about it. If it had gotten as far as agreement with Juncker and Tusk before failing, it would be even more chaotic than now.

Christy42

devnull wrote: »

Rosindell has now come out and attacked Irish Government saying they should leave the EU and the single market and customs union as they will want out soon and it will happen soon and Ireland needs the UK more than UK needs Ireland.

Also said he won't desert people of NI, after earlier saying that them voting to remain didn't matter, refuses to say how he is going to avoid a hard border, keeps speaking there are ways around it but is unable to say how, attitude appears to be we will get what I want.

I think many are still shocked that we just didn't do whatever they said anymore. I think they assumed we would simply leave along side them.

solodeogloria

Good evening!

ThisRegard wrote: »

UK had signed off on the deal. But continue to try aportion blame on the Irish Government.

I pointed out two communication failures. Both obvious. One from Dublin and Brussels and the other between the Tories and the DUP.

Hear what you want to hear though I guess!

kowtow wrote: »

I agree, and I'd like to hear what they have to say about the specific text. I would be absolutely with them on the issue of no border east/west, no constitutional impact on the UK, but from what I have seen and heard the fudge is a good one for the time being.

It is possible - faintly, but possible - that the hard Brexit wing of the Tories feels now is the time to throw out the whole shebang. If so I reckon the draft agreement reached this morning is far from the center of their concerns, more likely the Brexit bill and the perception that May is giving in all the time.

Tonight in London will be telling.

Does Rosindell have a vote on this proposed agreement and if so when?

He'll have a vote on the final deal like everyone in parliament. It's true that he's on the right of the Tory party and that Romford (where he's MP) had one of the largest if not the largest vote in Greater London for Brexit.

I suspect he was on because he's one of the chairs of the British Irish Parliamentary Council.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

devnull

Honestly that interview on Sky News with the backbencher really was eye opening and shows just how out of touch the Tory Brexiteers are with what is going on, he had many one liners and views but was unable to back any of them up and had no idea about Irish politics, he appeared to live in a fantasy world where everything would just magically happen and work out.

Wind the live stream back however many minutes it is to 17:45 here if you want to see an out of touch brexiteer
https://news.sky.com/watch-live

flatty

May should expel the hardliners who openly rebelled, and go back to the country, with a clear statement that she will re-run the referendum in the light of new evidence, publish the dossiers the tories have been sitting on regarding the economic ramifications, publish the evidence of Russian interference, and see what happens. And fast. It is both her, and the uk's only real chance of surviving intact.

ThisRegard

solodeogloria wrote: »

failures. Both obvious. One from Dublin and Brussels and the other between the Tories and the DUP.

Hear what you want to hear though I guess!

So you're reaffirming you're aportioning blame on the Irish Government. I'm not hearing anything, I'm reading exactly what you're posting.

awec

This post has been deleted.

solodeogloria

ThisRegard wrote: »

So you're reaffirming you're aportioning blame on the Irish Government. I'm not hearing anything, I'm reading exactly what you're posting.

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Itssoeasy

The DUP aren't in government in the north months after an election in Northern Ireland and Arlene Foster is not first minister and the DUP have ten seats in a parliament of 650. But they seem to be ballsing up a potential brexit deal for the entire U.K. ? Teresa may must be regretting having to do a deal with the DUP now.

MadYaker

flatty wrote: »

May should expel the hardliners who openly rebelled, and go back to the country, with a clear statement that she will re-run the referendum in the light of new evidence, publish the dossiers the tories have been sitting on regarding the economic ramifications, publish the evidence of Russian interference, and see what happens. And fast. It is both her, and the uk's only real chance of surviving intact.

That is never going to happen. We need to accept that brexit is happening one way or another. If negotiations break down it will still happen.

Billy86

devnull wrote: »

Rosindell has now come out and attacked Irish Government saying they should leave the EU and the single market and customs union as they will want out soon and it will happen soon and Ireland needs the UK more than UK needs Ireland.

As unpleasant as this whole situation is, it is still kind of nice to be part of the bigger side for once when our neighbours are getting noisy.

Phonehead

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

No the biggest cockup was that the Prime Minister of the UK came to the negotiation table and hammered out an agreement that she had no mandate to make. Honestly, we are now at a point that the British Government are a lame duck, they have no power to bring about an agreement. The incompetence that the EU have to deal with at the negotiating table is seismic.

Beechwoodspark

Phonehead wrote: »

No the biggest cockup was that the Prime Minister of the UK came to the negotiation table and hammered out an agreement that she had no mandate to make. Honestly, we are now at a point that the British Government are a lame duck, they have no power to bring about an agreement. The incompetence that the EU have to deal with at the negotiating table is seismic.

Yep. Absolutely farcical rubbish from May and her govt today. The decline of the UK continues apace.

Shocking stuff.

ThisRegard

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Hello, Ireland and the EU, yeah, this is Britian, we're happy with the text and signed off, let's go ahead publicly.

That's not a communications cock up in Dublin no matter how you try twist it.

Beechwoodspark

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Hardly trying to distract from the absolutely farcical cockup by the UK today are we?

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

solodeogloria

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Would you mind confirming that your position on this is as follows?

Any county that receives a proposal from he British government, and naively believes that the British government has have the capacity to go through with what they wrote, is making a cockup.

That's all I'm seeing.


You used to argue here that we should trust the UK.. Now you're insulting our government for believing something it wrote.

MadYaker

I don’t understand why May would allow this deal to move forward without the DUP and up to 20 Tory MPs (according to the BBC) being fully aware of and having agreed to the details.

lawred2

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm saying there was a communication cockup in Dublin yes. I appreciate you disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Good evening!

How was there a communication cockup in Dublin?

Much thanks,
me

flaneur

MadYaker wrote: »

I don’t understand why May would allow this deal to move forward without the DUP and up to 20 Tory MPs (according to the BBC) being fully aware of and having agreed to the details.

Because she and her government are living in fantasy la la land where they ignore all facts, all likely outcomes and all expert advice perhaps?

lawred2

MadYaker wrote: »

I don’t understand why May would allow this deal to move forward without the DUP and up to 20 Tory MPs (according to the BBC) being fully aware of and having agreed to the details.

well with most functioning governments - backbenchers dance to the tune of the cabinet - it's the reverse with UK government currently.

Maybe May temporarily forgot that..

Or maybe she was playing a high stakes game where she was hoping to bounce them into agreement..

Samaris

devnull wrote: »

Honestly that interview on Sky News with the backbencher really was eye opening and shows just how out of touch the Tory Brexiteers are with what is going on, he had many one liners and views but was unable to back any of them up and had no idea about Irish politics, he appeared to live in a fantasy world where everything would just magically happen and work out.

Wind the live stream back however many minutes it is to 17:45 here if you want to see an out of touch brexiteer
https://news.sky.com/watch-live

Oh dear god. Especially the bit with "There's never been a hard border before." What planet is this man on?

awec

This post has been deleted.

J Mysterio

devnull wrote: »

Leo says in relation to the DUP they are just one party in NI and we need to have regard of what other parties think in Northern Ireland and also the people of Northern Ireland and not just the DUP.

He says the motivations of Irish government are to maintain status quo as much as possible and all they want is people to go about normal lives as they do now and only objective and not looking to pick around and there is no hidden agenda as response to the DUP chancers accusation.

This is it. The reality of the situation seemed a bit much for Arlene and the other 5 lads there. The rest of us just want to get on with this now.

flaneur

I could see the EU and the markets losing all confidence in the ability of the Tories to do any kind of deal on anything now.

If they can't deal with this, they can't really deal with the rest of the Brexit negotiations either. They'll just be shot down by one faction or another.

I mean, if you compare this to the period when Ireland had a financial crisis, there was a pulling together of all the parties and a real sense of clarity of purpose. OK, it may not have been the most pleasant few years, but there was absolutely no sense that we were all running around like headless chickens.

In the UK the whole system now seems to be just breaking down and becoming dysfunctional.

Frank Bullitt

Its looking like a mix of the DUP and some back benchers throwing their toys out.

Mad stuff altogether. I am getting a sinister laugh out of the few tweets I am seeing from people saying that its obscene that the UKs deal is being held up by Ireland, and that they are not negotiating with one country, but the EU...despite the EU and Ireland pretty much being the same in this.

MadYaker

The DUP hold a fair bit of sway here but they are still in a pinch. A hard brexit or a hard border would be a disaster for NI economically and socially and they would pay for it at the polls, yet that is what the DUP are pushing for.

Odhinn

MadYaker wrote: »

The DUP hold a fair bit of sway here but they are still in a pinch. A hard brexit or a hard border would be a disaster for NI economically and socially and they would pay for it at the polls, yet that is what the DUP are pushing for.

They have no mandate to do so either.

Beechwoodspark

So the option seems to be

DUP accept the deal as is or...

New deal negotiated or...

UK govt falls and snap election.

ROI should refuse any overture to reopen the negotiations in my opinion. The deal is there to be signed off on by the UK, or not. Their choice.

solodeogloria

Good evening!

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hardly trying to distract from the absolutely farcical cockup by the UK today are we?

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

Not at all. I mentioned both together in my original post.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

To be fair though. Two things seemed to go wrong with today.

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

The other one was that it seems like the British Government didn't even consult the DUP on what was being proposed in Brussels. That's worse I think. If you want to ensure that all things can be sorted surely resolving things directly with the DUP first is the way to go about it.

The problem is that although the wording was good for Dublin it wasn't good enough for the DUP. And yes, it is one of the most difficult balancing acts I've seen in a long time.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I and many others had a feeling on this thread about whether or not this was actually going to happen. RTÉ broke this story prematurely as did the Government.

By lunchtime we were asking how were the DUP going to agree with this and sure enough they never did. In fact it looked like Theresa May didn't even speak to them! That's cockup number 2.

I'm going to criticise things that are worthy of criticism. I respect people disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur

It looks to me like it's just going to be chaos for the next few months until the UK either falls out of the EU or there's a general election - whichever one happens first!

devnull

Samaris wrote: »

Oh dear god. Especially the bit with "There's never been a hard border before." What planet is this man on?

But Rosindell is not alone with that beliefs, the load of rubbish that he spouts is what a lot of the Brexiteers believe and most of the leave wing of the Tory party, they are all completely ignorant as to the issues that Brexit would bring and how hard they are to resolve.

They seem to think that there are easy fixes to everything and come up with various soundbites like that which show a complete ignorance of the issues at hand here without having any knowledge of the history of this country or Northern Ireland or the problems it faces.

There is a lot of people who thought they would just leave the EU and keep all of the bits that they liked and got rid of the parts that they don't like and everyone else will just give them everything that they want because they are so important. When they don't get that they cry foul.

awec wrote: »

To be honest I'd remain a bit skeptical that it was actually the DUP that scuppered the deal. More likely to be the back bench tories. But saying it was the DUP suits both the DUP who can look like they have influence and Theresa May who can shift the focus outside her own party.

It was both for sure, Rosindell confirmed that.

devnull

Speaking of out of touch Brexiteers, another example is the head of JD Wetherspoon. He reckons food prices are going to go down massively and they are going to save £200m a week that will take 700,000 people out of poverty and it could lead £15,000 to these people each because of the removal of tarrifs.

Apparently everyone else does not know what they are talking about and have a religious connection to the EU and are misleading the public. When asked about the fact Sterling is going to be weakend so even if they will make gains from lack of tarrifs the devaluation of the currency will mean it's lost anyway he even disputed that the currency was devalued!

Apparently the price of Sterling going down is just a co-incidence and it was simply a small correction and the whole thing is a shaggy dog story and it always goes up and down and nothing to worry about a floating pound and it's just scare tactics.

They really are deluded aren't they?

Samaris

devnull wrote: »

But Rosindell is not alone with that beliefs, the load of rubbish that he spouts is what a lot of the Brexiteers believe and most of the leave wing of the Tory party, they are all completely ignorant as to the issues that Brexit would bring and how hard they are to resolve.

Terrifyingly and inexcusably ignorant at this point in the negotiations. Seriously, look at everything that ordinary people chatting on forums actually understand about all this now, and then look at what is being spouted as solutions by people ostensibly in power. There is just no excuse for being this ignorant at this stage as someone like Rosindell or god help the UK if he succeeds May, Jacob Rees-Mogg is.

And regarding JD Wetherspoons man, jaysus monkey pants. Please tell me he's nowhere near Westminster, they're all confused enough as it is.

kowtow

Is it possible that Arlene Foster has been fuming more and more since the rather gratuitous elevation of the Republic by Tusk & Co on Friday (handled quite graciously by Leo, in fairness)... and that the temperature just kept going up until the Irish news broke the story this morning, perhaps a little bit earlier than planned....

And she forgot what she had already agreed with May and ... stamped her feet for attention.

I hope so, because if that is the case May will go and see her for some "Consultation" and they will both come out together with assurances about no border in the Irish sea (note, also Leo's words) and everyone can get on with life.

May has cancelled her planned long statement on Europe in the house tomorrow. Presumably she'll be on her hands and knees searching for Arlene's dummy instead.

flaneur

Another £1 billion dummy ?

Infini

Real possibility of a General Election at this stage.

Simply put the Conservatives (aka Coliseum Party cos the knives are ALWAYS out C_C) have no coherent plan, political strength or ability to negotiate. They don't have any advantages here. They want to leave the EU because of a referendum that was fought based on outright lies by the leave side and are now finding out the hard reality of what leaving the EU actually means.

Take in the fact that they went into a GE that lost them a majority and left them tied to an unreliable partner that will not negotiate or can even get Stormount back up (and Arlene has no credibilty after the whole RHI debacle imo) and wants everything their own way and you can only see one way this is heading.

It's looking distinctly possible that if there's no progress to Stage 2 which is very likely then there will be serious pressure on any government that comes in after. Businesses will most likely begin activating contingency plans and there will likely be no avoiding a GE at this point.

I honestly do believe that Brexit will ultimately be cancelled because when something was won based on lies and REALITY sets in it can change things enough that those who dont want this will get enough credibilty and political backing to end this before it becomes severely damaging.

cml387

If it's ignorance you want:

from BBC's reality check:

Owen Paterson told the Today Programme that there's only a small amount of trade between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland is the fifth biggest customer for UK exports. The UK is the second biggest customer for Irish exports.

And the Republic of Ireland is a much more important destination for exports from Northern Ireland than Mr Paterson's figures suggest. It doesn't buy 5%, it buys 37%.

But Northern Ireland does indeed buy 1.6% of the Irish Republic's exports.

FrancieBrady

It doesn't matter to me as I have always been of the opinion that Britain cares little for northern Ireland when it comes to their own selfish interests, but would what May was prepared to sign up to today not massively undermine your security if you were a unionist?

Royale with Cheese

I just don't get why unioninsts are still so staunchly loyal to the UK at this point, the vast majority of the population and their government clearly don't give a fúck about Northern Ireland.

selectamatic

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!



I'm going to criticise things that are worthy of criticism. I respect people disagree.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Bail ó Dhia oraibh!

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

Thus the tanking of it surely warrants criticism does it not?

Le gach dea-ghuí,
Selectamatic

Beechwoodspark

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It doesn't matter to me as I have always been of the opinion that Britain cares little for northern Ireland when it comes to their own selfish interests, but would what May was prepared to sign up to today not massively undermine your security if you were a unionist?

The unionists never seem to get it through to their skulls that a huge majority of British people see them as Irish not British. NI is seen as a distant outlying province that is not relevant to the mainstream.

The best they get is the occasional lip service the Tories pay them when they require votes from them.

Phonehead

Infini wrote: »

I honestly do believe that Brexit will ultimately be cancelled because when something was won based on lies and REALITY sets in it can change things enough that those who dont want this will get enough credibilty and political backing to end this before it becomes severely damaging.

I just can't see this happening to be honest, a pretty hefty % of the British population and indeed a lot of their politicians would see this as a huge national embarrassment or surrendering of the country. I just can't see them admitting defeat to the EU (as they would see it)

solodeogloria

selectamatic wrote: »

Bail ó Dhia oraibh!

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

Thus the tanking of it surely warrants criticism does it not?

Le gach dea-ghuí,
Selectamatic

Good evening!

I don't blame the DUP for having concerns, and I don't blame the DUP for not having been spoken to beforehand.

As a part of the negotiating process that has been happening over the last few weeks they should have been involved and consulted by the British Government as that process was happening.

It seems like they weren't. This is why there were issues today.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

cml387

From the BBC

Conservative MPs emerging from a Downing Street briefing on the talks said they had been told Mrs May had not agreed the proposal on regulatory alignment put forward by the Irish government.

So there you have it.

The spin is that the form of words as reported this morning had not been agreed.

steddyeddy

A point to note is that Northern Ireland already has special status in the UK. It's called the good Friday agreement. It's not as British as Finchely or Somerset as Jacob Rees Mogg likes to point out. They only way it operates is by parity of esteem between the two communities there.

flatty

MadYaker wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

May should expel the hardliners who openly rebelled, and go back to the country, with a clear statement that she will re-run the referendum in the light of new evidence, publish the dossiers the tories have been sitting on regarding the economic ramifications, publish the evidence of Russian interference, and see what happens. And fast. It is both her, and the uk's only real chance of surviving intact.

That is never going to happen. We need to accept that brexit is happening one way or another. If negotiations break down it will still happen.

I know, she is a political opportunist and a coward. It would be a brave play, and history would judge her well for it whatever happened.
Here's smugness at triggering article 50 has worn off, that's for sure.

flutered

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar saying he's not open to changes to the wording that change the meaning. Good to hear. If he indicates a willingness to do so it's an invitation to dilute the process. The Irish government needs to hold its nerve and be firm on this.

to me it eu will be rather testy after today, they will not be happy and will make life hard for the uk in any negotiations from here on in