Brexit discussion thread II

flutered

kowtow wrote: »

If there is any change to the text now it will be flowery language to acknowledge that the neither the EU nor Ireland wants a border in the Irish sea, and tying down the areas of convergence even further by centering the whole thing even more on the GFA.

90% of what we are seeing now is jostling to claim a victory. The underlying reality, as seen in the text this morning, is that there was never going to be a hard border in the sense that most people understand it and that there will be regulatory equivalence at least in the areas identified by the GFA. That in itself is a great reassurance for us in Ireland.

Phase two is going to be the interesting one and that it actually the point at which Ireland's interests fall closer to those of the UK than those of the rest of the EU. That's where the fun will start.

phase two cannot start until phase one is agreed upon

lawred2

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

I just don't get why unioninsts are still so staunchly loyal to the UK at this point, the vast majority of the population and their government clearly don't give a fúck about Northern Ireland.

It's because they are unionists

The Rape of Lucretia

selectamatic wrote: »

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

It wouldnt be beneficial or acceptable to a significant minority though.
Anything less than they have done, if they have done it, would be seriously remiss of Foster, PaisleyJr, and Wilson etc. They are not in the UK to become a less united part of the united Kingdom. Its unacceptability to them is perfectly reasonable. It is the election call booboo that has put Teresa in this tight corner.

druss

cml387 wrote: »

If it's ignorance you want:

from BBC's reality check:

Owen Paterson told the Today Programme that there's only a small amount of trade between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland is the fifth biggest customer for UK exports. The UK is the second biggest customer for Irish exports.

And the Republic of Ireland is a much more important destination for exports from Northern Ireland than Mr Paterson's figures suggest. It doesn't buy 5%, it buys 37%.

But Northern Ireland does indeed buy 1.6% of the Irish Republic's exports.

Owen Paterson, former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

Owen Paterson, former Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Fr Tod Umptious

lawred2 wrote: »

It's because they are unionists

It's got shades of the 1914 Home Rule crisis about it.

When unionists we're willing to go to war with the British to show how loyal they were to Britain.

J Mysterio

The UK is dangerously close to complete anarchy from what I can see.

I'm in shock.

I was on a massive high this morning based on what seemed to be a good deal concluded. That bubble rapidly burst somewhere around 2:30.

This stuff is unbelievable. It's been dragged out for so long yet there still seems to be surprises to the UK on the matter... it's inconceivable really. Seems almost everyone on the EU and Ireland side were quick to grasp the key issues sometime back in the summer of 2016. I hope to god May can rescue this now because there will be bedlam.

I probably shouldn't be so emotionally invested in this but, hey.

Water John

That's the point. Unionist's are loyal to Queen Victoria.

The Rape of Lucretia

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The bottom line, is that the UK couldnt come up with a solution to square the circle, and so tried to sell out NI, but didnt get away with it.

devnull

Dominic Grieve has said that there are a large number of MPs, including himself, who are against the deal that was put forward by the UK Government today which gives the impression it's far from just the brexiteers that are against this deal.

He stated that he believes that a large number in Westminster who are against any deal that sets Northern Ireland apart from the rest of the UK and as such he doesn't expect any deal to be possible.

That is from a remain supporter which suggests the problem is wider than just brexiteers and the DUP objecting and raises serious questions of this deal being resurrected at all.

I can't see how TM is going to convince elements of the leave wing of her party, the DUP and the remain elements of her party, all of which seem to have some issues with this deal, all back on-side.

By the week her calling of a general election looks more and more reckless.

The Rape of Lucretia

flutered wrote: »

phase two cannot start until phase one is agreed upon

Weeeeeeeeeeeellllll. It can. It was said it couldnt. But that was only a position, not an inherently obligatory sequence. Circumstances alter positions.

Water John

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see can they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

The Rape of Lucretia

J Mysterio wrote: »

I was on a massive high this morning based on what seemed to be a good deal concluded.

Surely it was a horrendous deal from the point of view of unionists, whose mass on being equal members of the EU overrides (as is their right to choose it so) their concerns for the economic outlook for themselves or the republic.

The Rape of Lucretia

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see can they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

A Labour majority that has the ooomph to steamroll over the DUP, and follow through on this mornings deal ?

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see cant they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

When the dust settles, the distrust between the DUP and May will have to be fairly low.

Election day looming closer.

devnull

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see cant they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

She isn't even leader of her party. It's a joke at this stage. Only that there is nobody with the cahonas to take over she would be gone.

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She isn't even leader of her party. It's a joke at this stage. Only that there is nobody with the cahonas to take over she would be gone.

Most of them wouldn't touch the leadership with a bargepole right now, they know that it would be somewhat of a poisoned chalice so I would say they are hoping that she takes all the flack and they pounce on her afterwards.

They'd have got rid of her already if it wasn't for brexit.

MadYaker

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The bottom line, is that the UK couldnt come up with a solution to square the circle, and so tried to sell out NI, but didnt get away with it.

I don't buy this. How could she have thought she'd get away with trying to pull a fast one on the people who are propping up her government?

Beechwoodspark

devnull wrote: »

Most of them wouldn't touch the leadership with a bargepole right now, they know that it would be somewhat of a poisoned chalice so I would say they are hoping that she takes all the flack and they pounce on her afterwards.

They'd have got rid of her already if it wasn't for brexit.

No doubt they'll go with the buffoon Johnson when they do actually put her out of her misery. And he'll be even worse!

FrancieBrady

She isn't going into parliament this evening either.

J Mysterio

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely it was a horrendous deal from the point of view of unionists, whose mass on being equal members of the EU overrides (as is their right to choose it so) their concerns for the economic outlook for themselves or the republic.

Ah take the train will you?

The Unionists object to it because it hurts their feelings, not their material situation. It actually protects them as it does everyone else in NI and it ensures a healthy peace on this island.

The Brexiteers and every other incoherent fool in the UK parliament are going to pretend they give a **** about the Unionists now because it is politically expedient for them.

A deal would also have saved the UK from the complete anarchy it is now plunging headlong into. This is getting very serious indeed.

PeadarCo

J Mysterio wrote:

Pretty inflammatory headline right there.

While the headline is inflammatory the article makes a very good point. Brexit and an EU trade deal is struggling to a large degree because of Ireland. The country that's most exposed to Brexit and the country you would expect to want a trade deal most. But the UKs position is so weak it had to give way to Ireland's demands before doing a u turn. In the context of how important Brexit is to the UK and UK/Irish history its remarkable.

One of ideas about leaving the EU was the UK could and can get better deals outside it. Given that the UK can't get its way with Ireland(with EU backing) it just shows how difficult trade deals will be with countries like the USA, India China etc. Countries that are much bigger than Ireland and for whom a new trade deal is worth far less. Its the clearest example of how in terms of trade negotiations how much weaker the Brexit process has made the UK.

J Mysterio

devnull wrote: »

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

She is the leader of the UK in what appears to be one of the most momentous (or infamous) moments in UK history. This is an utter failure right now, a shambles. The UK is utterly divided, it's civil war.

J Mysterio

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She isn't going into parliament this evening either.

I'd say she's going into some sort of stasis chamber. How can you recover from this?

MPFGLB

devnull wrote: »

Dominic Grieve has said that there are a large number of MPs, including himself, who are against the deal that was put forward by the UK Government today which gives the impression it's far from just the brexiteers that are against this deal.

He stated that he believes that a large number in Westminster who are against any deal that sets Northern Ireland apart from the rest of the UK and as such he doesn't expect any deal to be possible.

That is from a remain supporter which suggests the problem is wider than just brexiteers and the DUP objecting and raises serious questions of this deal being resurrected at all.

I can't see how TM is going to convince elements of the leave wing of her party, the DUP and the remain elements of her party, all of which seem to have some issues with this deal, all back on-side.

By the week her calling of a general election looks more and more reckless.

Grieve is a staunch Unionist ...most MPs are not really of the same mind

blackcard

Visiting the North and seeing the proliferation of tricolours and Union
Jacks and listening to the bigots on both sides on Newstalk today made me realise that I have very little in common with the Northern Irish. Given their history, it may be understandable that they are the way they are but if I was given the choice between living in England (as I did for two years) or living in the North, I would pick England. The people in the North really needs to understand how they are viewed by the outside world and today showed them in their true colours. In truth, they are not wanted by the rest of the UK. The only reason May listened to Arlene today was that she wants to cling to power. I think today will be a pyrrhic victory.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

A gentle reminder folks that just because the world has gone mad doesnt mean that the charter and standards required for Political discussion here have in any way lessened!

Water John

Peter Hain on Sky talking sense. all stay in the CU and SM.

joe40

Since the DUP are so adamant that there can be no diffference between northern ireland and the rest of the UK will we see the same abortion laws and marriage equality in the North shortly.

FrancieBrady

Water John wrote: »

Peter Hain on Sky talking sense. all stay in the CU and SM.

I think that is what Dublin and the rest of the EU may achieve.
It's either that or May comes tumbling down very soon.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote:

I think that is what Dublin and the rest of the EU may achieve. It's either that or May comes tumbling down very soon.

Or both. Given how May has nailed her colours to the "out of everything" mast, they will only get back to reality with a new government and a new PM.

MadYaker

I think May will hoble on a while longer. There doesn't seem to be much faith among the public that the Labour Party would be much better.

J Mysterio

MadYaker wrote: »

I think May will hoble on a while longer. There doesn't seem to be much faith among the public that the Labour Party would be much better.

The only way she can have any credibility is she clears house, which she hasnt the stomach for.

McMurphy

blackcard wrote: »

Visiting the North and seeing the proliferation of tricolours and Union
Jacks and listening to the bigots on both sides on Newstalk today made me realise that I have very little in common with the Northern Irish. Given their history, it may be understandable that they are the way they are but if I was given the choice between living in England (as I did for two years) or living in the North, I would pick England. The people in the North really needs to understand how they are viewed by the outside world and today showed them in their true colours. In truth, they are not wanted by the rest of the UK. The only reason May listened to Arlene today was that she wants to cling to power. I think today will be a pyrrhic victory.

Way to go with the generalisations there.

The DUP are not representative of the people there, but of a prehistoric bigoted political party who have still to become accustomed to those of a different religion or political outlook having an equal say in how things are run.

They effectively blocked a deal that favoured the people in the north (all the people there) in an attempt to prove that they are more British than the people who are actually in Britain.

This is a party that actively campaigns against minorities (LGBT) , campaigns against gay marriage, anti abortion, and even has many "creationists" within its hierarchy (Edwin Poots reckoned the earth was 4000 years old iirc a while ago.

Most people in the north respect their neighbours and wish to move on from the past, so in that regard, I feel I have to correct you.

AreWeAlone

joe40 wrote: »

Since the DUP are so adamant that there can be no diffference between northern ireland and the rest of the UK will we see the same abortion laws and marriage equality in the North shortly.

joe40 wrote: »

Since the DUP are so adamant that there can be no diffference between northern ireland and the rest of the UK will we see the same abortion laws and marriage equality in the North shortly.

Seeing as England has occupied part of Ireland, let us take over part of England and impose unborn rights there (with Trump's military assistance of course).

MadYaker

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Way to go with the generalisations there.

The DUP are not representative of the people there, but of a prehistoric bigoted political party who have still to become accustomed to those of a different religion or political outlook having an equal say in how things are run.

They effectively blocked a deal that favoured the people in the north (all the people there) in an attempt to prove that they are more British than the people who are actually in Britain.

This is a party that actively campaigns against minorities (LGBT) , campaigns against gay marriage, anti abortion, and even has many "creationists" within its hierarchy (Edwin Poots reckoned the earth was 4000 years old iirc a while ago.

Most people in the north respect their neighbours and wish to move on from the past, so in that regard, I feel I have to correct you.

If that were true then how do the DUP still get so many votes and seats in elections?

devnull

MadYaker wrote: »

I think May will hoble on a while longer. There doesn't seem to be much faith among the public that the Labour Party would be much better.

From the people I know still living in England from when I lived there for a few years, they are very much of the view that they have no love for the Tory party who they feel have drifted too far to the right but also have no love for the Labour party as they've drifted too far to the left therefore it's a choice of two evils.

I would not be able to vote for the Tory party because of the fact I detest what they are doing to health, education and the disgraceful treatment of the poor in the country and the fact much of that party is built on extreme privilege with perhaps the most out of touch politicians to ever grace their party now making it up who are blaming all the foreigners for the countries problems to try and take the focus off the fact they have run the country extremely poorly for years and essentially have a war on the poor going on.

The problem I'd have with Labour is that if Corbyn gives the unions as much power as he says the country will be crippled by strikes on regular basis and you'd end up where money is simply injected into problems rather than dealing with the underlying issue like we saw here with FF. I'm also not convinced by his feelings about the EU and honestly some of his policies are past their sell by date to put it lightly. I'm also not convinced by his economic vision or arguments on how he is going to pay for things and he seems stuck in the past.

As a centrist voter, there's not much for me out there. I would feel physically sick voting for either of the two main parties right now and that comes from a person who would have voted Labour without question before Corbyn. Even a more moderate Conservative like Major would appeal to me more than Corbyn.

Infini

What doesnt help them over there is they still use the First past the post system as well. Think that causes more problems than it solves.

McMurphy

MadYaker wrote: »

If that were true then how do the DUP still get so many votes and seats in elections?

If what were true?

What part of the post are you disputing is true, kindly point out specifically which part you're doubting and I'm sure I can quite easily provide a source that backs it up. (I would find it hard to believe anyone posting in a politics forum wouldn't be aware of their stances and statements on many things tbh)

Are you making noise for the sake of it?

MadYaker

Rick Shaw wrote: »

If what were true?

What part of the post are you disputing is true, kindly point out specifically which part you're doubting and I'm sure I can quite easily provide a source that backs it up. (I would find it hard to believe anyone posting in a politics forum wouldn't be aware of their stances and statements on many things tbh)

Are you making noise for the sake of it?

You said the DUP aren't representative of the people in the north. If that's the case then why are so many people in the north still voting for them? They got 28% of the vote in the last election and are currently the largest party in the north. Another 13% voted for the UUP who would have similar positions to the DUP.

The point I'm making is there are a lot of people in the north who aren't aware of the realities of their situation and the options available to them in a post brexit UK. The unionists solution to brexit will essentially result in a hard border, which the people of NI are against, yet they vote for parties whose actions are going to bring a hard border back.

For Forks Sake

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

A Labour majority that has the ooomph to steamroll over the DUP, and follow through on this mornings deal ?

The notion that Corbyn (who has been anti-EU for decades) will be the person to rescue the UK from it's self-induced madness is laughable.

They have landed themselves in the worst political clusterf*ck possible, a weak government with a weak PM who is reliant on a party (DUP) who, as todays actions proved, will cut off their noses to spite their face. And an opposition that seems to have no coherent plan for anything.

In the 1975 European Communities referendum, Corbyn opposed Britain's membership of the European Communities, the precursor of the European Union. Corbyn also opposed the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, opposed the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, and backed a proposed referendum on British withdrawal from the European Union in 2011

FrancieBrady

Arlene and unionism as a whole problem is London.
What is bleakly obvious for them again is that London does see them as different and has no selfish interest in northern Ireland.
It will be interesting to see how that affects relationships in what is left of their flirtation.
Arlene was more rattled today than angry.

Enzokk

blanch152 wrote: »

Of course we can look for more than just the items listed on the GFA. But we have been crowing since the start about the need to protect the GFA. That has brought us to the point where the UK (with the backing of the DUP) are in a position to say that you can have what is in the GFA but nothing more at this stage. After all, that is the agreement all sides have signed up to.

Think about it, why would May or the DUP hand over more North-South co-operation than they are required to do by the GFA when it can be used in the trade talks as a bargaining chip?

I don't know why the DUP are worried about the GFA, didn't they oppose it? They can claim to want to stay together with the UK and not be separated from the UK as a ideological point of view, but to claim that Ireland is not upholding or trying to change an agreement they don't believe in seems like populism at its best. Do and say whatever to keep my supporters on side I guess.

devnull wrote: »

LV: Not our role to make sure DUP or Tories were onside (hinting at Tory Rebels as well as previously mentioned on the thread). Says Ireland took part in good faith and they agreed text this morning, briefed opposition today but TM needs more time.

This is the problem when you are dealing with a weak PM. The EU will need to take this lesson and learn from it. Do not trust anything that the current UK government will negotiate, there is no way to ensure that someone in the ruling party will not be offended and will turn over the apple cart in a tantrum.

solodeogloria wrote: »

It's also a media communication failure on the part of Dublin and Brussels. They should have never said anything until both sides stated such in a press release.

That's my point and it is an obvious one.

Theresa May made the deal with the DUP and now she has to pay for it. This is not on the Irish government or the EU. There was genuine progress towards discussing those precious trade terms that the UK needs and its been stopped in its tracks. Trying to shift the blame for the mess that the Conservatives created is quite a undertaking.

Rick Shaw wrote: »

Way to go with the generalisations there.

The DUP are not representative of the people there, but of a prehistoric bigoted political party who have still to become accustomed to those of a different religion or political outlook having an equal say in how things are run.

They effectively blocked a deal that favoured the people in the north (all the people there) in an attempt to prove that they are more British than the people who are actually in Britain.

This is a party that actively campaigns against minorities (LGBT) , campaigns against gay marriage, anti abortion, and even has many "creationists" within its hierarchy (Edwin Poots reckoned the earth was 4000 years old iirc a while ago.

Most people in the north respect their neighbours and wish to move on from the past, so in that regard, I feel I have to correct you.

The DUP that received less than 30% of the vote and campaigned for leaving the EU that lost the vote in their own backyard is now going against their own voters and trying to dictate the NI position from where they are.

Its astonishing that we are here, but that is what is happening.

McMurphy

MadYaker wrote: »

You said the DUP aren't representative of the people in the north. If that's the case then why are so many people in the north still voting for them? They got 28% of the vote in the last election and are currently the largest party in the north. Another 13% voted for the UUP who would have similar positions to the DUP.

That leaves 72% who voted for someone else to represent them.

Did you think this through?

The point I'm making is there are a lot of people in the north who aren't aware of the realities of their situation and the options available to them in a post brexit UK. The unionists solution to brexit will essentially result in a hard border, which the people of NI are against, yet they vote for parties whose actions are going to bring a hard border back.

You are aware that an overwhelming majority in the north voted against Brexit right?

Which brings us full circle as to how the DUP aren't representative of the people in the north.

FrancieBrady

Rick Shaw wrote: »

That leaves 72% who voted for someone else to represent them.

Did you think this through?




You are aware that an overwhelming majority in the north voted against Brexit right?

Which brings us full circle as to how the DUP aren't representative of the people in the north.

Not forgetting the Queens uni poll that showed overwhelming support for special status.

devnull

Infini wrote: »

What doesnt help them over there is they still use the First past the post system as well. Think that causes more problems than it solves.

The thing is though that the UK is heavily influenced by a very strong right wing press such as the Daily Mail, Daily Express and the Sun that is not shy at all about expressing it's opinions, even if printing those opinions often involves huge exaggerations, extreme levels of spin and terrifying amounts of scaremongering that really makes my skin crawl. They routinely print inaccurate stories then a few days later in an obscure place in the paper print a notice of correction.

Then you have the likes of Russia Today peddling propaganda as well such as their recent advertising campaign on the Tube and the Leave side which has clear connections to Russia, a number of which have connections to UKIP which in turn has connections with Trump as boasted by Farage in the past and a massive amount of right wing pro Kremlin bots on social media which altogether are exploiting the naivety of the Little Englanders pride of the 'British Empire' for their own agenda and stir things up.

What is also striking having watched a lot of leave Tory voters being interviewed is that so many of them say that they are voting Tory and voted to leave for the benefit of their children or grandchildren, despite the fact it's been proven that said grandchildren are twice as likely to vote remain than the people who are voting leave supposedly for them.

Stacksofwacks

Water John wrote: »

Peter Hain on Sky talking sense. all stay in the CU and SM.

Then they may aswell stay in the EU altogether, they voted leave to be able to make their own trade deals and to stop the flood of immigrants from Europe, they will be able to do neither if they stay in the CU and single market. Plus the hard brexiteers wont have it

RobAMerc

conservatives now claiming that it was TM that decided to pull the deal as she knew it was a bad deal for UK in general, and that she has the Irish govt and EU running scared :pac::pac:

First Up

Rick Shaw wrote:

That leaves 72% who voted for someone else to represent them.

As did every other party - and all by more than 72%

Rick Shaw wrote:

You are aware that an overwhelming majority in the north voted against Brexit right?

56-44. Solid but hardly overwhelming.

Water John

Tory Mp Bernard Jenkins saying EU has always been trying to separate NI from the UK!!! Then he also said Bertie and Enda were former Prime Ministers of Northern Ireland.