Brexit discussion thread II

The Rape of Lucretia

For Forks Sake wrote: »

a party (DUP) who, as todays actions proved, will cut off their noses to spite their face.

I think this line, posted by others as well, is extremely condescending to unionists.
Brexit may seem bats and economic suicide to us. And access to the EU zone, as they scuppered, a way out of that madness. But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.
So they did not cut off their noses - they used their democratic influence to protect what is the single most fundamental basis to their identity. Respect.

FrancieBrady

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I think this line, posted by others as well, is extremely condescending to unionists.
Brexit may seem bats and economic suicide to us. And access to the EU zone, as they scuppered, a way out of that madness. But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.
So they did not cut off their noses - they used their democratic influence to protect what is the single most fundamental basis to their identity. Respect.

They took advantage of a seedy power cling deal and ignored the wishes of an almost equal identity though. In my eyes that seedy deal has contravened the whole idea of the GFA.
The DUP should never have had the say they had today.

devnull

RobAMerc wrote: »

conservatives now claiming that it was TM that decided to pull the deal as she knew it was a bad deal for UK in general, and that she has the Irish govt and EU running scared :pac::pac:

Well they're hardly going to come out and say anything else really are they?

At the end of the day this was not a great day for the Tory party because exposed that they are heavily dependent on the DUP and any handful of their backbench MPs can potentially veto something they don't like because of her wafer thin majority when it comes to any votes. It has merely exposed what we all knew all along when it comes to being a lame duck PM who is having her strings pulled by Arlene and her extreme backbenchers.

It's there for all to see that this government is dysfunctional and cannot really do anything because of the fact that Cameron made an error of judgement when he called a divisive referendum and May called an election that wasn't needed, had an absolutely shocking campaign, ended up with an even worse hand than before it compounded by going into power with the worst possible party as far as solving the border issue is concerned.

What you are seeing from the Tory party is simply about optics and they are for sure going to spin it so they can place the blame on someone else or say they pulled a deal, they're saving face, nothing more and nothing less.

For Forks Sake

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I think this line, posted by others as well, is extremely condescending to unionists.
Brexit may seem bats and economic suicide to us. And access to the EU zone, as they scuppered, a way out of that madness. But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.
So they did not cut off their noses - they used their democratic influence to protect what is the single most fundamental basis to their identity. Respect.

With respect, that's nonsense.

They had a chance with the offer on the table today to improve the lot of all in NI.
Bearing in mind that the place is reliant on Westminster handouts, the deal as reported could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity to diversify and improve the economy there - Belfast could have been a hub for business currently based in other parts of the UK who would like to maintain a base that allowed them access to the EU without the need for wholesale upheaval (moving to other parts of Europe post Brexit). Because they way things are progressing, the handouts will be in very short supply post Brexit.

There was an opportunity - for once - to do something that could have potentially improved the lives of all in NI - and they blew it.

But no, the DUP maintained the only consistant word in their vocabulary. NO.

sliabh 1956

Just came across this article May seems to be on the way out acording to this guy

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/12/04/ireland-chaos-brexit-will-either-break-may-now-or-it-ll-brea

devnull

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They took advantage of a seedy power cling deal and ignored the wishes of an almost equal identity though. In my eyes that seedy deal has contravened the whole idea of the GFA.

Are you really surprised though?

This is the same DUP that was the only party in NI to oppose the GFA.

First Up

The Rape of Lucretia wrote:

But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.

If they were a bit less insecure and a bit more self confident they woulcn't feel threatened by a deal that gave them the sort of economic autonomy that regions in Spain enjoy for example.

Europe has a complex history and most EU countries have been able to come up with creative solutions to deal with regional economic and cultural differences.

Everyone can see that the Irish situation is very complex and the EU is sympathetic to that. But it needs more imagination than the DUP seem capable of.

devnull

sliabh 1956 wrote: »

Just came across this article May seems to be on the way out acording to this guy

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/12/04/ireland-chaos-brexit-will-either-break-may-now-or-it-ll-brea

Pretty blunt isn't it. Hard to feel much sympathy though since her vanity election has caused it.

If she insists on a border in Ireland, the talks break down and she is finished.

If she insists on a border in the Irish sea, the DUP pull the plug on her parliamentary deal and she is finished.

If she accepts regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, the Cabinet hawks revolt and she is finished.

For Forks Sake

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/04/brexit-the-dup-and-the-risks-of-not-passing-go/

I like this line...

The DUP torpedoed today’s sensible UK-EU compromise deal on the border because, according to an Arlene Foster tweet, the party could not accept any deal which separates Northern Ireland politically from the rest of the UK. This will come as a great surprise to campaigners for marriage equality, liberalisation of the abortion laws, and comprehensive education.

The Rape of Lucretia

For Forks Sake wrote: »

With respect, that's nonsense.

They had a chance with the offer on the table today to improve the lot of all in NI.

I agree it would have been a very good have your cake and eat it deal for NI.

But.......only from your and my perspective. It would not have been an improvement of the lot of ALL in NI for those who would perceive a divergence from the rest of the UK as a disimprovement of their lot. And that is the case for a many.

So not nonsense. But an alternative view that some have up there. And I recognise their right to hold it, even it is not my own.

For Forks Sake

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I agree it would have been a very good have your cake and eat it deal for NI.

But.......only from your and my perspective. It would not have been an improvement of the lot of ALL in NI for those who would perceive a divergence from the rest of the UK as a disimprovement of their lot. And that is the case for a many.

So not nonsense. But an alternative view that some their have there. And I recognise their right to hold it, even it is not my own.

It'll be a significant disimprovement for NI's DUP voting farmers when their EU grant money dries up in 14 months time....

McMurphy

First Up wrote: »

As did every other party - and all by more than 72%

And solidifies my point.

The DUP aren't representative of your typical person in the north. It is simply wrong to try and claim otherwise.

56-44. Solid but hardly overwhelming.

Semantics. See the bolded text above.

Junkyard Tom

MadYaker wrote: »

If that were true then how do the DUP still get so many votes and seats in elections?

Fenian Fear Factor. If you don't vote for us them'uns will get in, and destroy the union and then at the party conference they say the Union is safe.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical.

This is not correct if the QUB poll is anything to go by. The public should understand that the largest religious denomination in the DUP are Free Presbyterians who are fairly fundamentalist yet they only account for 0.6% of the wider population. They also are very close to the Orange Order and have other murkier links too.

UrbanFret

Arlenes catholic ancestors took the soup. The souper kellys,
Soupers were frequently ostracised by their own community, and were strongly denounced from the pulpit by the Catholic priesthood. On occasion, soupers had to be protected by British soldiers from other Catholics.
Heres were the bitterness started. she hates everything irish and catholic.

The Rape of Lucretia

For Forks Sake wrote: »

It'll be a significant disimprovement for NI's DUP voting farmers when their EU grant money dries up in 14 months time....

But that kind of line is again just a condescending "you'll be sorry" jibe that fails to acknowledge their viewpoint is different to yours.

Enzokk

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I think this line, posted by others as well, is extremely condescending to unionists.
Brexit may seem bats and economic suicide to us. And access to the EU zone, as they scuppered, a way out of that madness. But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.
So they did not cut off their noses - they used their democratic influence to protect what is the single most fundamental basis to their identity. Respect.

So you are saying that the DUP would gladly let their own country go down in flames and let their own countrymen suffer, as long as they still have a connection to Brittain. The same country that, as has been pointed out, they don't seem to share the same social outlook on life on. But, yeah, respect.

First Up

Rick Shaw wrote:

Semantics. See the bolded text above.

They got more votes and more seats than anyone else. You seem happy to accept a majority in a binary vote but not a relative majority in a multi-party election.

Why is that?

FrancieBrady

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

But that kind of line is again just a condescending "you'll be sorry" jibe that fails to acknowledge their viewpoint is different to yours.

The dealing should have been between the UK and the EU though.
Mays deal allowed the power to be in one party's hands. That is wholly wrong.

kowtow

An unintended consequence of the hiatus regarding the border, and more particularly the rhetoric (from all sides) which has accompanied it, is that the Tory party is much more likely - IMO - to quickly select a replacement for May who is more ideologically committed to Brexit than she is.

If there were to be an election as well - and I am not sure there would be - the events of recent weeks have also given the Tories a very clear anti-EU platform to take to the country. Doing so would be a very high risk strategy indeed, and I am not sure that it would succeed, but it gives the Tories something to work with. The only alternative on offer would be a vote for Corbyn and, whilst there is a significant risk of him winning, neither his Brexit policies nor his economic policies would necessarily stand up to the heat of a campaign. Also - the danger of Corbyn winning (made clear in June) is perhaps the biggest incentive to vote against him for a large part of the country who just aren't prepared to risk him.

If there was to be a change of leadership, and an election tomorrow, I would be willing to bet on a Tory majority - and that is not something which I would have said three weeks ago.

High risk and nowhere near certain, and an election which could be overtaken by events - including economic ones - but nevertheless an election which is more winnable for the Tories than most commentators seem to imagine.

I wonder would they dare...

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote:

The dealing should have been between the UK and the EU though. Mays deal allowed the power to be in one party's hands. That is wholly wrong.

As Varadkar and Coveney said, the Irish govt. negotiated in good faith with (and only with) the UK govt. So did the rest of the EU.

It is only the current HoC maths that enable the DUP have such influence; if May didn't need them, the draft agreed today would have gone through.

McMurphy

First Up wrote: »

They got more votes and more seats than anyone else. You seem happy to accept a majority in a binary vote but not a relative majority in a multi-party election.

Why is that?

No one is disputing their seats/Vote share.

I am disputing that they are representative of your typical person in the north.

As already pointed out, they were the only major political party in the north to oppose and campaign against the GFA (which they seem to have a newfound love for)

The conflicts over now. Right?

Itssoeasy

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

The Rape of Lucretia

Rick Shaw wrote: »

I am disputing that they are representative of your typical person in the north.

Nobody can represent your typical person in the north because there is no such thing there. They have about 5 typicals.

Thargor

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

Just looking at Skys review of the morning papers there, all anti-DUP, all calling it chaos or a shambles, maybe the penny is finally starting to drop.

devnull

UK Newspaper Front Pages

Torygraph: May's Push for Deal Ends in Chaos
FT: Brexit divorce derailed at 11th hour after DUP blocks Irish border deal.
Metro: They're Taking the DUP
I: Brexit deal is done then DUP says no.
Mirror: Duped - May gave unionists £1bn for their support....now they derail brexit.
Guardian: DUP wrecks May's Brexit Deal
Times: May fights to save Brexit deal after Unionist Veto
Express: Irish border row stalls EU deal but May battles on

No Daily Mail yet.

ThisRegard

Press Preview on Sky News taking quite a measured and logical stance on what happened today, and the UK governments naivety with dealing with an NI party such as the DUP, what the ROI want the DUP will automatically look for the opposite.

Strazdas

Thargor wrote: »

Just looking at Skys review of the morning papers there, all anti-DUP, all calling it chaos or a shambles, maybe the penny is finally starting to drop.

Yes, because May was humiliated to a certain extent. She flew to Brussels today to meet with Juncker and Tusk and to publicly sign off on the Phase 1 deal. The fact that nothing actually happened and the entire day was wasted was rather embarrassing for her and the UK.

devnull

Just saw the front page of the Daily Mail - not a word about today's events on there.

Robert Peston on ITV News making some interesting predictions as to what TM will do at cabinet tomorrow. Saying that she will confront Gove and Johnson et al and tell them its a deal for the whole UK similar to what was on offer for NI today or theres a hard Brexit or even maybe a 2nd referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all after that. Could be stormy......

Strazdas

devnull wrote: »

Just saw the front page of the Daily Mail - not a word about today's events on there.

There's something very strange going on with the Daily Mail. They've been avoiding Brexit stories on the front page for many months now.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Robert Peston on ITV News making some interesting predictions as to what TM will do at cabinet tomorrow. Saying that she will confront Gove and Johnson et al and tell them its a deal for the whole UK similar to what was on offer for NI today or theres a hard Brexit or even maybe a 2nd referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all after that. Could be stormy......

There was speculation today that the NI arrangement could be very problematic and that a UK wide one could be more sellable in that at least it would shut the DUP up.

Risteard81

So-called "EU" regulation is unwelcome and illegal throughout all of Ireland. So today's events were a positive thing.

Samaris

And, several hours past eleventh hour, Wales come out of left field with a spear tackle to the devolution process.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-42217048

Tories just can't get away with nuthin these days.

blanch152

A momentous time but posters are tying themselves in knots.

When they bemoan the right of the DUP to control the UK agenda, do they not realise that the DUP have a bigger share of the House of Commons than FG do of the European Parliament?

When posters say that the DUP should respect the wishes of the voters who voted to Remain in Northern Ireland, are they the same posters who told the Tories the vote was only advisory?

The irony is unbelievable.

Turning to the main events, I keep coming back to the Good Friday Agreement. It is an international agreement that the UK is bound by. However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

A tighter text with regulatory coverage limited to just what is explicitly covered by the GFA and extended across the UK could hardly be refused by the backbench Tories and the DUP, as it only refers to separate international agreements. Neither could the Scots, Welsh or Londoners object in that case.

Ireland would be upset as such a deal would be a long way short of what we want and would effectively mean a hard border depending on the trade talks. The EU could tell us we got what we were legally entitled to and the rest would have to be considered in phase 2.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

There will be civil disobedience if they try to reimpose a hard border. Be careful what you wish for. A hard Brexit and hard border in Ireland will only hurry along yours, and Unionists', nightmare of a pro-UI vote in the north.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

A momentous time but posters are tying themselves in knots.

When they bemoan the right of the DUP to control the UK agenda, do they not realise that the DUP have a bigger share of the House of Commons than FG do of the European Parliament?

When posters say that the DUP should respect the wishes of the voters who voted to Remain in Northern Ireland, are they the same posters who told the Tories the vote was only advisory?

The irony is unbelievable.

Turning to the main events, I keep coming back to the Good Friday Agreement. It is an international agreement that the UK is bound by. However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

A tighter text with regulatory coverage limited to just what is explicitly covered by the GFA and extended across the UK could hardly be refused by the backbench Tories and the DUP, as it only refers to separate international agreements. Neither could the Scots, Welsh or Londoners object in that case.

Ireland would be upset as such a deal would be a long way short of what we want and would effectively mean a hard border depending on the trade talks. The EU could tell us we got what we were legally entitled to and the rest would have to be considered in phase 2.

There are no signs at all that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

May is completely snookered here.

I think we are closer to the whole UK staying in the CU/SM to get around this blockage. Because I think the signs are they are desperate to avoid a hard Brexit.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

There will be civil disobedience if they try to reimpose a hard border. Be careful what you wish for. A hard Brexit and hard border in Ireland will only hurry along yours, and Unionists', nightmare of a pro-UI vote in the north.

Who said anything about reimposing a hard border? This is only to kick-off stage 2. It is only when the outcome of stage 2 is known that we know what kind of border we have. To me, it makes no sense for the UK to concede any more than what is in the letter of the GFA. Any other concession weakens their negotiating position.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Who said anything about reimposing a hard border? This is only to kick-off stage 2. It is only when the outcome of stage 2 is known that we know what kind of border we have. To me, it makes no sense for the UK to concede any more than what is in the letter of the GFA. Any other concession weakens their negotiating position.

They did concede it.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are no signs at all that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

May is completely snookered here.

I think we are closer to the whole UK staying in the CU/SM to get around this blockage. Because I think the signs are they are desperate to avoid a hard Brexit.

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

MarinersBlues

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

That depends on your view of whether Theresa's deal Is agood or a bad thing.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

Ireland and the EU have to shift towards it or it is pointless and there is no sign at all that they will

johnnyskeleton

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

A gentle reminder folks that just because the world has gone mad doesnt mean that the charter and standards required for Political discussion here have in any way lessened!

Dont make me tap the sign folks!

Risteard81 wrote: »

So-called "EU" regulation is unwelcome and illegal throughout all of Ireland. So today's events were a positive thing.

Please explain this view if you want to discuss it, rather than simply asserting illegality

dasdog

I've been reading the comments section from the UK rags. Some quite nasty thoughts floating about, the Express is on a different level of vitriol but this made me laugh...

So we've had Brexit, Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, Carry On Brexit, They Need Us More Than We Need Them Brexit, and now we're getting into Come Over Here If You Think You're Hard Enough Brexit from the silly end of the Brexiteers. Although it is difficult to tell which is the silly end.

Christy42

blanch152 wrote: »

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

By saying no. Seriously we have that power now. This is a complete negotiation and if we feel the deal is not right for Ireland we should feel absolutely free to reject it whatever was written in a previous negotiation.

Now certainly we should not go against the agreement ourselves but I see no reason it should be we will enforce the good Friday and give the UK everything they want outside of that which seems a bad way to go about negotiations. Heavens knows what the UK wants at this point.

As an other point the Irish government would also be within its rights to ensure the UK has a full plan in place to show what will happen and shows the steps and safety nets are in place to protect the GFA as opposed to a vague promise. Indeed I would consider them negligent if they didn't as it would allow them wiggle room later to reinterpret it as they see fit. At this point we can say if we are not happy with it. Bit more difficult to say they are going against the GFA in 5 years.

Samaris

I could see tying it to the GFA a compromise the DUP might swallow. There has been a good few comments out of them about RoI wanting a UI and land grabs and the rest of it. If the Irish government makes the "concession" of specifically not seeking an UI, they might take it as a win. RoI and GB kept open travel going for years based on two completely different interpretations of the same rule (GB decided it meant RoI were British citizens, RoI decided it meant that Irish citizens were allowed certain rights in Britain). As bullsh*t goes, it's pretty benign.

That is going to be a nightmare though. Regulations will start diverging while there are debates over what exactly "may include" means with that list in the GFA annex. There are going to be breaches and this is going to be incredibly complicated to unwind. I think we'd be better off with a contained unit customs union over this piecemeal approach - and it may get a bit hairy with the EU in terms of carving out sectors, so we'll have to see how that goes down. Even if this limps through in December, it could easily grind to a halt again. But needs must when the DUP vomits in your kettle, it might move things along until the inevitable collapse of the government.

flaneur

This just isn't going to work with the DUP in the mix there's no possible scenario that they will agree to any reasonable compromise. Everyone told the Tories this back after their disastrous election when they entered the confidence and supply arrangement.

You're talking about a party that can't even agree an assembly arrangement in Northern Ireland essentially because they're offended by a language and gay marriage and gets bogged down in arguments about symbols and flags and all sorts of dogma and minutia.

Brexit won't now happen and if the Brexiteers want anyone to blame, it's the DUP.

J Mysterio

devnull wrote: »

UK Newspaper Front Pages

Torygraph: May's Push for Deal Ends in Chaos
FT: Brexit divorce derailed at 11th hour after DUP blocks Irish border deal.
Metro: They're Taking the DUP
I: Brexit deal is done then DUP says no.
Mirror: Duped - May gave unionists £1bn for their support....now they derail brexit.
Guardian: DUP wrecks May's Brexit Deal
Times: May fights to save Brexit deal after Unionist Veto
Express: Irish border row stalls EU deal but May battles on

No Daily Mail yet.

Wow! Unionists arent going to feel to good about that... absolutely pilloried by the British press. Maybe they might reconsider by Wednesday and we can get the deal done.

farmerval

This must have been the craziest day politically in a long time.

First the proposed "deal" with Irish border comes out, then Scotland wants same, London Mayor looks for same, Wales look for same.

Then the DUP reject what the others want and pull the rug right out from under Theresa May.

At this stage with so many factions within the Tories and the fact that Labour are at best Lukewarm on reversing Brexit it's impossible to see any kind of a constructive settlement happening. Rightwing Tories setting new red lines seemingly every week, every time Theresa May seems about to move forward her own party try to Hi-jack the situation. Remember BoJo's red lines before her Florence speech, then over the weekend another set of red lines. Seems somewhat deliberate?

MadYaker

flaneur wrote: »

This just isn't going to work with the DUP in the mix there's no possible scenario that they will agree to any reasonable compromise. Everyone told the Tories this back after their disastrous election when they entered the confidence and supply arrangement.

You're talking about a party that can't even agree an assembly arrangement in Northern Ireland essentially because they're offended by a language and gay marriage and gets bogged down in arguments about symbols and flags and all sorts of dogma and minutia.

Brexit won't now happen and if the Brexiteers want anyone to blame, it's the DUP.

Brexit will happen regardless. The negotiations are to avoid a hard brexit.

flaneur

MadYaker wrote: »

Brexit will happen regardless. The negotiations are to avoid a hard brexit.

I wouldn’t be so sure of that after a UK general election.