Brexit discussion thread II

Capt'n Midnight

jm08 wrote: »

Also, worth noting that Germany exports 1 out of 7 cars manufactured to the UK (which suggests 6 out of 7 are imported elsewhere such as EU 26, Japan, China, etc.)

Also worth noting UK car sales are down. A lot of the big brands are doing scrapage deals, which means less profit even if cars are shifted.

Already the UK isn't worth as much to the Germans.



UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row
NI car sales fall 9% in August says motor trade body

Rise in personal loans dangerous, Bank of England official says

UK household debt now a record £13,000, says TUC - from January but with the real fall in wages I don't think it's gotten better

Rain Ascending

breatheme wrote: »

Wait. So, according to this and the Irish position paper:
- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

My understanding is that this ambiguity already exists today ... for non-EU nationals with residency or visitor permits for the Republic of Ireland. They can enter and leave Ireland, as allowed by the conditions of their permit, but don't have any rights to enter the territory of the UK.

Brexit "just" extends this ambiguity to non-Irish EU citizens.

This is why I suspect that agreement on the post-Brexit CTA is feasible.

Capt'n Midnight

Those on the bottom rungs won't be able to take another round of austerity. But they won't be able to do anything about it until the next election, which will be after Brexit

Banks warned on ballooning consumer borrowing

at present, real incomes are falling as inflation approaches 3%.
...
If you exclude mortgages, consumers are now borrowing 10% more than they were last year.

Peregrinus

Rain Ascending wrote: »

My understanding is that this ambiguity already exists today ... for non-EU nationals with residency or visitor permits for the Republic of Ireland. They can enter and leave Ireland, as allowed by the conditions of their permit, but don't have any rights to enter the territory of the UK.

Brexit "just" extends this ambiguity to non-Irish EU citizens.

This is why I suspect that agreement on the post-Brexit CTA is feasible.

It's a matter of scale.

The CTA works because Ireland and the UK keep their immigration policies more-or-less aligned. The number of third-country nationals who have a right to enter Ireland, but no right to enter the UK and no prospect of obtaining one, is very small, so the "leakage" of such people into the UK via Ireland is acceptable. (And vice versa for people entering Ireland from the UK.)

But if the object of Brexit includes "taking back control" of EU immigration, that analysis breaks down completely. There is no prospect whatsoever that Ireland and the UK can align their immigration policies with respect to EU citizens, and Ireland is highly accessible to any EU citizen wishing to enter the UK.

robindch

breatheme wrote: »

- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

They're not exclusive if a) Northern Ireland agrees that it can admit EU passport holders from the Republic, and b) there's a passport check between NI and the mainland UK, in order to block out the same EU passport holders.

That will, of course, annoy the DUP who maintain that NI and mainland UK are inalienable parts of the Queen's United Kingdom and should, therefore, not have any border control between them.

As with the Tory's and Labour, the DUP may not have thought through their pro-Brexit policy follow-through all that carefully.

Peregrinus

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

The inability to sign free trade deals prevents Britain from liberalising trade terms. Brexit permits signing free trade deals. More liberal trade terms provide more opportunities for exporting goods. This is the reason why I believe good free trade agreements will expand export opportunities both to the US and to China.

These two countries make up £100bn in trade together at present. This could be increased significantly given better trade terms.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

How much does Germany export to those two countries under the awful EU I wonder?

The EU is China's largest trade partner (and this will still be true after the UK leaves). The EU is also the US's large trade partner.

Germany alone is a much larger trade partner for both China and the US than the UK is. The Netherlands is also a larger trade partner for China than the UK is I(though not for the US).

While there is obviously scope for the UK to increase its trade with both countries "given better trade terms", there seems no reason to think that the UK is likely to be given better trade terms when ploughing its own furrow than it might hope to get if it remained a part of the EU. On the face of it, the idea seems a bit fanciful.

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

Thirdly - the UK is advocating free travel across the border and free travel for EU citizens into the UK. Just not free rights to work.

Finally - there are two parties in the negotiations. If the UK advocates for a frictionless border and Brussels insists otherwise the only rational conclusion you can come to is that the EU have insisted on it. They bear responsibility if this happens.

You haven't really addressed the point though, how can you be outside the customs union and have a frictionless border? How can you control your borders when you have an open border? If the UK can give satisfactory answers to these questions, and not just talk about solutions that are not compatible, we will see a border that will hamper trade and will mean physical border checks in Ireland between the UK and the EU.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Again, the official leave campaign argued for an open Ireland border. It isn't true to say that leavers supported a hard border in Ireland.

They also said the EU will fall over themselves to get a trade deal with the UK. They also said they will negotiate trade deals while Brexit talks will be ongoing, and they also said there will be an extra £350m per week, some of it to spend on the NHS. Care to inform us how any of those arguments have gone?

In any case, it seems as though those in charge of Brexit isn't much smarter than their "friend" Donald Trump. He also famously shouted about how easy it was going to be to sort out all the problems in the US, then said that actually, healthcare reform is quite complicated. I doubt in a few years time anyone will be happy to be compared with Mr Trump though, so maybe not the comparison they were hoping for.

The Brexit Secretary provoked laughter from Labour MPs during his update on the talks when he claimed: “Nobody ever pretended this would be simple or easy.”

Labour’s Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer was quick to remind Davis that his Cabinet colleague Liam Fox had made such a boast just six weeks ago, when he said: “The free trade agreement we will have to come to with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.”

Davis himself has in the past talked up the simplicity of getting a trade deal with the EU, and in the immediate aftermath of the referendum in June 2016 claimed: “We can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly.”

David Davis: ‘Significant Differences’ Between EU And UK Over Brexit Divorce Bill

Thomas__

ambro25 wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, thanks for explaining me your point of view. Mine is different to yours and I see it - besides the randomly cited legal points - in a way that EU agencies are about to "withdraw" from the UK in a way of preparation for the time after the UK has exited the EU. From my pov and understanding of just solution, I regard it as unfair and not sustainable to impose the costs for a move of EU agencies to other EU countries on the UK. That smells of punishment and this should be avoided in the light of the economical connections some EU member states have with the UK.

I see your point (shoulder some relocating expenses to help save the relationship), but it's interesting that you claim to be looking at it from a "fair/unfair" point of view, because that's exactly how I've been looking at it (I only indicated legal basis in reply to your own, earlier point/challenge about it)...and I'm completely opposite to you: why should other EU countries have to shoulder the full cost of a relocation brought about solely and unilaterally by a UK decision? Particularly when, unlike the UK, they've not had the socio-economic benefits and synergistic development effects of prestigious EU agencies like the EMA and EBA for decades?

I mean, by your line of thought, why not ask them to shoulder the rest of the UK's liabilities? why not let the UK completely off the financial hook for its Brexit folly, never to bear any actual consequences for its political actions? That would solve the animosity surrounding the "exit bill", right?

You´re adding one thing with another and I deal with each of them separetly. The relocation of EU agencies to other remaining EU member states shifts Jobs from one country to another and frankly, the EU has enough money to shoulder such - in my view - minor costs in contrast to the money those other EU member states who are receipients of EU money (and which are most those in the East of the EU). The UK was, even in the light of their "repay" a netto contributor to the EU. I´d suggest that those in the East, namely Poland who is currently about to curb her own democratic standards in order to establish (or better say "consolidating) an authoritarian regime like that in Hungary, should see for themselves to contribute more to the EU and not just moaning about the lesser amount of money they will receive once the UK has left the EU. Well, that´s another Topic for itself but I just liked to point that out.

I have often stated in since I post on here that the Republic of Ireland could take the chances this Brexit brings with it and make the best out of it for herself. Some companies currently still located in London are already preparing for moving to Dublin and if the Irish govt is smart enough, Ireland could secure the relocation of EU agencies from London to Dublin or elsewhere in the Republic of Ireland cos Ireland has one advantage some other EU member states have not and this is her geographical location and most of all, the majority of Irish people are native English speakers which is an asset in this global world. I think that we don´t have to discuss the merits of an native English speaker further cos everyone who likes to take on a Job within international operating companies has to be a fluent English speaker, whether it´s their native or second language. For those working in London, a move to Ireland is rather an easier undertaking than to move to another EU member state because life in Ireland isn´t that much different to that in GB. There are more similarities than differences.

Sometimes, I really can´t help it, it really appears to me that some comments and posters have a much more emotional approach to the whole Brexit thing and it also appears that anti-Brit Sentiments are also a driving force (even if just partially) with an interest to see the Brits punished as hard as it could get.

Nody

Oh dear; it looks like we're going to have fun times ahead of us. Apparently the delusions in the UK government runs far deeper than expected and they wish to implement some "Shock Therapy" to the discussions; why do I have a feeling that the receiving party in the end will not be their intended target?

Since the UK is now trapped in a seemingly endless spiral of talks which give the EU the upper hand, allowing it to stick to its "sequencing" and decide when or if "sufficient progress" has been made. There appear to be serious discussions within Mrs May's "inner circle" about the possibility of changing tack.

Specifically, bolstered by the illusion that the WTO option is largely free from adverse consequences, and that a UK walk-out would trigger an EU response that could work in our favour, there is a growing caucus in favour of applying "shock therapy" to the EU and engineering a walk out in the near future. "Sooner rather than later" is the dominant theme.

One of the strongest advocates of this line is said to be Dominic Cummings, who has had several recent meetings with the prime minister. Some believe that he has managed to convince her that opting early for the WTO option is a win-win situation.

We can, he argues, trade successfully on that basis but, if pulling out of the talks in preference to taking this option has the effect of forcing concessions out of the EU, we gain further in being able to insist on trade talks without the conditions currently being imposed.

Risks are considered to be minimal as the long-standing ethos that "they need us more than we need them" has taken firm root in Number 10, to the extent that it is felt that Mrs Merkel will intervene on behalf of her car-makers after her re-election as chancellor on 24 September – which is regarded as a foregone conclusion.

...

Crucially, there is no expectation that the UK will ever be forced to rely on the WTO option. There is absolute certainty within the higher levels of government that Barnier's current stance is a bluff, aimed at maximising the UK's financial contribution.

Taken from today's EURefendum blog.

Calina

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

Calina

Dominic Cummings? This Dominic Cummings?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps

Here's the video I think... https://youtu.be/fJjShkGCa4c

(from last year pre referendum I think)

I am coming to the conclusion that they will have to go through with it because it is clear there is no understanding otherwise.

Nody

On a separate note Alan Bell has created a list on the funding outstanding for Horizon 2020 projects (the subject of today's white paper) currently scheduled to be paid out post Brexit and it adds up to about 633 MM EUR which would all depend on a deal being struck on the finances in general.

ambro25

Thomas__ wrote: »

You´re adding one thing with another and I deal with each of them separetly.

Don't let my end paragraph of rethorical cheek, merely added for effect, sidetrack or mislead you

Thomas__ wrote: »

The relocation of EU agencies to other remaining EU member states shifts Jobs from one country to another and frankly, the EU has enough money to shoulder such - in my view - minor costs in contrast to the money those other EU member states who are receipients of EU money (and which are most those in the East of the EU). The UK was, even in the light of their "repay" a netto contributor to the EU.

The UK is not the only net contributor to the EU, nor the highest net contributor per capita. It's really not so special.

I'm not trying to hand-wave for directing attention away from the issues in Eastern Europe which you have highlighted, here, but the fact is that -as you acknowledge yourself- these are for Brussels and the said EE members, Poland and Hungary first amongst them, to deal with. Same as all the other EU problems not directly related to 'Brexit'. The EU is not without faults or problems, and I don't think I've ever not acknowledged that.

Thomas__ wrote: »

Sometimes, I really can´t help it, it really appears to me that some comments and posters have a much more emotional approach to the whole Brexit thing and it also appears that anti-Brit Sentiments are also a driving force (even if just partially) with an interest to see the Brits punished as hard as it could get.

I don't have a problem acknowledging my emotional bias either, although it does not extend to wanting to punish the UK or Brits (that is, beyond their suffering the direct and indirect consequences of their political class' choices - and I'd have thought that this is eminently fair, surely? unless you are a 52%er Brit, that is :pac:)

That is because I am an EU migrant married to a Brit with a dual nationality kid, living and working in the UK, and standing to lose a lot both personally and professionally because of 'Brexit', whichever form it takes (yes, even under the most benign 'soft' form of it).

I have a ton of skin in this particular 'game', which both redefines, and sets new world records of, irony and collective stupidity. So yes, sometimes the anger bubbles up enough to find a way out through a cheeky sentence or paragraph laden with Schadenfreude. And I won't apologise for it.

Fratton Fred

breatheme wrote: »

Wait. So, according to this and the Irish position paper:
- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

EU citizens need a passport to enter Ireland, as they are leaving the Schengen zone.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

breatheme wrote: »

Wait. So, according to this and the Irish position paper:
- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

EU citizens need a passport to enter Ireland, as they are leaving the Schengen zone.

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

BKtje

Calina wrote: »

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

I can confirm this (and that it extends to Switzerland) as my girlfriend enters Ireland using her Swiss I'd card.

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

Of course, I'm thinking of the API requirements, but the option of an ID card isn't open to British or Irish citizens, as there isn't one.

Regardless though, it is highly unlikely thst eu citizens will need a visa to enter the UK, so why go to all the hassle of going via Ireland, when they can just fly direct, or drive to Calais.

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

it isn't just geographic either. Ireland is losing it biggest and most influential friend in the council, which may prove costly if Macron pushes his anti tax avoidance plans. Historically, the UK has always had Ireland's back on this one.

Thomas__

ambro25 wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

You´re adding one thing with another and I deal with each of them separetly.

Don't let my end paragraph of rethorical cheek, merely added for effect, sidetrack or mislead you

Thomas__ wrote: »

The relocation of EU agencies to other remaining EU member states shifts Jobs from one country to another and frankly, the EU has enough money to shoulder such - in my view - minor costs in contrast to the money those other EU member states who are receipients of EU money (and which are most those in the East of the EU). The UK was, even in the light of their "repay" a netto contributor to the EU.

The UK is not the only net contributor to the EU, nor the highest net contributor per capita. It's really not so special.

I'm not trying to hand-wave for directing attention away from the issues in Eastern Europe which you have highlighted, here, but the fact is that -as you acknowledge yourself- these are for Brussels and the said EE members, Poland and Hungary first amongst them,  to deal with. Same as all the other EU problems not directly related to 'Brexit'. The EU is not without faults or problems, and I don't think I've ever not acknowledged that.

Thomas__ wrote: »

Sometimes, I really can´t help it, it really appears to me that some comments and posters have a much more emotional approach to the whole Brexit thing and it also appears that anti-Brit Sentiments are also a driving force (even if just partially) with an interest to see the Brits punished as hard as it could get.

I don't have a problem acknowledging my emotional bias either, although it does not extend to wanting to punish the UK or Brits (that is, beyond their suffering the direct and indirect consequences of their political class' choices - and I'd have thought that this is eminently fair, surely? unless you are a 52%er Brit, that is :pac:)

That is because I am an EU migrant married to a Brit with a dual nationality kid, living and working in the UK, and standing to lose a lot both personally and professionally because of 'Brexit', whichever form it takes (yes, even under the most benign 'soft' form of it).

I have a ton of skin in this particular 'game', which both redefines, and sets new world records of, irony and collective stupidity. So yes, sometimes the anger bubbles up enough to find a way out through a cheeky sentence or paragraph laden with Schadenfreude. And I won't apologise for it.

Well, you´ve made your point and I absolutely understand it, no question. Just to your notice, I am no "52%Brit" and I am neither a Brit or an Irishman myself. I look at this complex matter from a more distanced angle and in contrast to yourself, I have no such concerns for myself as you do. This of course makes it a bit easier to look at it from a distanced view as I have neither anything to gain nor to lose from this Brexit. If I were in your place, of course my view and my way of argumentation would be as much the same as yours is, naturally. I have also followed the reports on the matter of how this present UK govt is treating EU nationals living in the UK, whether they are married to non-Brit nationals or not and I find it even mildly put disgusting and outrageous. It´s in some way similar to what Trump is on about in the USA regarding his policy on (illegal) immigrants.

Let me be a bit more clear about my stance to Brexit. It´s utter bollix and I have nothing but contempt for the Brexiteers. That´s my emotional part on the matter. My considerations are more about the effects on the economy this Brexit will have and whether there is a merit in making it even harder for the Brits after they´ve finally left the EU. That´s because they´ll be out in the cold soon enough and this will Show those stupid Brexiteers that there is no such "old fashioned nostalgic good old Britain" which waits for them but a predictable decline in their economy and financial strength they´ll have to face, in addition to that and as a consequence of Brexit, the Brits will be left to the "mercy" or let´s put it this way "the Terms and conditions" dictated to them by those they seek to get trade deals with. I Name the USA, Russia and China to name but just the three biggest global players, even by considering the USA turning on a more isolationaist course (which won´t be last too long, just as long as this stupid Trump is their President).

One thing is clear to me, even by considering your own position, which is that to impose more payment obligations on the UK will not improve the situation for EU nationals living in the UK. If you don´t mind, I´d say that we both know very well that politics is a dirty Business and what you´ve endured and what I have noticed from the news, this present UK govt is playing dirty on EU nationals by letting them in the limbo of uncertainty and by harrassing them in various ways (like in those articles related to the subject that I have posted on this thread).

The matter is a very complex one and the UK govt is trying to sell it to her "voters" by coming up with simple solutions that are unfit to solve the many of the problems and which have no chance to be even seriously considered by the EU, but the Brexiteers are too keen swallow all that nonsense and as usual put the blame for all the failure on the EU and not on the present UK govt to where it really belongs.

There will be a time after the UK has left the EU. That time of Transfer will be the time in which the fate of the UK herself will hang in the balance. The more the chances for an UK Exit from the EU with no deal increase, the more the chances for a support of an IndyRef2 in Scotland will grow. In the end of it, by that pessimistic but also not too unrealistic prospect of likely break up of the UK, the future for the Brits isn´t that bright. So why make it even harder for them when the Brexiteers are on the best way to finish off the UK themselves?

As you live in Britain and are married to a UK national, with bi-national children, you´ll suffer under this Brexit one way or another. Looking at it from that point, I can´t get the notion why you´d support an even harder treatment of the Brits from the EU whan all this will backfire on yourself and your family. I do understand your anger and certainly your disappointment, but unless you look for alternative solutions for the "Day X", which fits yourself and your family, you´ll all remain in this mess like it or not. This the whole negative effect of this BrexitRef won by the most stupid people who don´t give a damn about the lives of other people. The worst of all aspects in this matter is that you´ve just a weak opposition since Mr Corbyn finally outed himself as that what he really is, an anti-EU politician at his heart. He won´t turn and back off from Brexit for and despite all the lies he told to make him appear as a remainer.

I really feel sorry for you, your family and all the others living in the UK who share the same problems you face. That´s all the making of the British Nationalists and this is just one example for why I detest any political movements firming under nationalism which are exclusive by their nature. One exemption among those is the SNP, but I am neither a supporter of them nor a big sympathiser. But I admit, the prospect of an independent Scotland as some huge attraction and appeal to me. In the end of the day, the Scottish will have to decide about that when the time has come and I am sure that that time will come and it won´t take much longer until that day arrives. It´ll be the irony of history and politics when the UK breaks up and those British Nationalists who brought the UK into this mess by their intentions to gain back more sovreignty led the very country they wanted to preserve into its own downfall. No idea where this will leave you when it happens.

IndyRef2 in Scotland is just postponed, it´s not taken off the table yet and it will remain there to be taken up when the UK govt failed in her Brexit negotiations and Exit without a deal or even a very bad deal cos they are too stupid to get things done. This will trigger IndyRef2 and I´d anticipate that it will result with a majority in favour of independence.

mickoneill31

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

I was listening to a podcast this morning where they were saying that the EMA accounts for 40,000 hotel nights in the UK yearly.

I don't know what Dublin can handle but aren't we close to capacity now?

blanch152

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I was listening to a podcast this morning where they were saying that the EMA accounts for 40,000 hotel nights in the UK yearly.

I don't know what Dublin can handle but aren't we close to capacity now?

40,000 hotel nights, 220 working days in the year, a hotel with 200 beds would cater for that.

There are six or seven of those under construction in Dublin City Centre at the moment.

http://www.thejournal.ie/new-hotels-dublin-2-3414370-May2017/

Thomas__

Calina wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

breatheme wrote: »

Wait. So, according to this and the Irish position paper:
- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

EU citizens need a passport to enter Ireland, as they are leaving the Schengen zone.

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

Not today and not yet, but in the future as stated in this article:

http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/uk-to-end-freedom-of-movement-immediately-after-brexit-1-4552033

It is not envisaged that EU citizens would be required to apply for permission to visit the UK for tourism, family visits and short business trips or be given stamps in their passports on arrival. But they will have to show passports, rather than using a national identity card to enter the country.

Under the document’s proposals, those on longer stays would have to register with the authorities and may be required to provide fingerprints and proof of employment, self-sufficiency or study status.

The right to bring family members into the country could be tightened to only the most direct relatives like partners, spouses and children, and there could be an unspecified “income threshold” for EU citizens to show they can support themselves while in the UK.

Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/uk-to-end-freedom-of-movement-immediately-after-brexit-1-4552033

Seems that this present UK govt is about to bring in more obstacles for EU nationals and maybe even for tourist purpose. Well, when the Brits are going to demand a visa for entering their country as a tourist, they´ll have seen me and I won´t spend any holiday there anymore. There are other countries to go to and to spend my money on.

Thomas__

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Harika

Thomas__ wrote: »

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

Thomas__

Harika wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

Sure, there are other destinations already considered.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

Of course, I'm thinking of the API requirements, but the option of an ID card isn't open to British or Irish citizens, as there isn't one.

Regardless though, it is highly unlikely thst eu citizens will need a visa to enter the UK, so why go to all the hassle of going via Ireland, when they can just fly direct, or drive to Calais.

Fred, you stated that EU citizens required passports to enter or leave the Schengen area. This is demonstrably not true.

You only need one if you live in an EU country that does not issue national ID cards.

As for the future who knows what will happen? The UK is being so batsh1t insane on this predictions are off. I certainly wouldn't rely on common sense being applied in the UK given yesterday's leaked document on immigration. Paranoia that some one not British might god before us and all harm want to live in Britain seems to be highly prevalent.

Calina

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

it isn't just geographic either. Ireland is losing it biggest and most influential friend in the council, which may prove costly if Macron pushes his anti tax avoidance plans. Historically, the UK has always had Ireland's back on this one.

Tbf, Brexit alone calls into question how much of a friend Britain is to Ireland. Cf NI. Cf deal with DUP. Cf attempt to use Ireland as a bargaining chip.

If the UK had our back on tax it was because Britain had its own back and not Ireland's. Brexit is pure vandalism. Not the act of a friend.

Fratton Fred

blanch152 wrote: »

40,000 hotel nights, 220 working days in the year, a hotel with 200 beds would cater for that.

There are six or seven of those under construction in Dublin City Centre at the moment.

http://www.thejournal.ie/new-hotels-dublin-2-3414370-May2017/

Harika wrote: »

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

it won't be bankers moving to Dublin, it will be back office staff and it is unlikely that many of those will be actually moving here, as opposed to just being employed locally.

There seems to be some sort of belief that Barclays are going to close one Churchill Place and move lock, stock and barrel to Grand Canal, that simply is not going to happen.

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't just geographic either. Ireland is losing it biggest and most influential friend in the council, which may prove costly if Macron pushes his anti tax avoidance plans. Historically, the UK has always had Ireland's back on this one.

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour. The UK supported the Irish position because it was similar to its own one.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

blanch152

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

Very true but it would also be true to say that Ireland's and the UK's interests have been similar on more occasions than Ireland and any other country in the EU.

ambro25

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, you´ve made your point and I absolutely understand it, no question. Just to your notice, I am no "52%Brit" and I am neither a Brit or an Irishman myself.

Just to be clear, when I said "unless you are a 52%er", I meant the generic 'you', e.g. any thread reader, not you personally (I'm aware of your general stance on Brexit through your earlier posts in here ).

Thomas__ wrote: »

One thing is clear to me, even by considering your own position, which is that to impose more payment obligations on the UK will not improve the situation for EU nationals living in the UK.
<...>
As you live in Britain and are married to a UK national, with bi-national children, you´ll suffer under this Brexit one way or another. Looking at it from that point, I can´t get the notion why you´d support an even harder treatment of the Brits from the EU whan all this will backfire on yourself and your family.

But I don't

As posted before, I don't wish ill of the average Brit, nor to see the UK "punished" for having the temerity to exit EU.

My stance on Brexit, any prejudice aside (most of the time I hope, when I keep the rage in check ) is very simply that of a cartesian adult with a strong, perhaps overdeveloped, sense of personal responsibility and morality: anyone can make a mistake, but once it's made, only they can decide how to correct it, and in any case they must assume the entire consequences of that mistake. No endless blaming to harass them with, but no freebies either: just expecting contrition, reparations if damage was caused, and learning enough from the mistake not to repeat it again.

Given that context, all I want to see is Brits/the UK (England, really) made to lie in the bed they made for themselves, nothing more. Because I've been here long enough to know that not enough of them (i.e. a critical voting mass) will "get it" (overcome anti-EU bias and prejudice), until they've been through it at the coalface (actually got to feel and miss all of that, which the EU membership was actually doing for them).

It's the only pragmatic way of neutering the nationalist siren calls, given the UK's bipolar political system under the FPTP and the partisan press.

Politicians' head on spikes outside the Tower would be nice, though

Thomas__ wrote: »

I do understand your anger and certainly your disappointment, but unless you look for alternative solutions for the "Day X", which fits yourself and your family, you´ll all remain in this mess like it or not.
<...>
I really feel sorry for you, your family and all the others living in the UK who share the same problems you face.

Don't feel sorry, and worry not about little old me. I'm not trapped here

The fact that I'm still here now, is simply down to still having a good and easy life for now, and to fighting the good corporate fight while there's still a chance (-for the firm I'm in, with opening an EU office by March 2019). If and when that project should reach unachievable status by horizon March 2019, I'll be dropping them like yesterday's pants and ship out of the UK, family in tow.

ancapailldorcha

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

Thomas__

ambro25 wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, you´ve made your point and I absolutely understand it, no question. Just to your notice, I am no "52%Brit" and I am neither a Brit or an Irishman myself.

Just to be clear, when I said "unless you are a 52%er", I meant the generic 'you', e.g. any thread reader, not you personally (I'm aware of your general stance on Brexit through your earlier posts in here ).

Thomas__ wrote: »

One thing is clear to me, even by considering your own position, which is that to impose more payment obligations on the UK will not improve the situation for EU nationals living in the UK.
<...>
As you live in Britain and are married to a UK national, with bi-national children, you´ll suffer under this Brexit one way or another. Looking at it from that point, I can´t get the notion why you´d support an even harder treatment of the Brits from the EU whan all this will backfire on yourself and your family.

But I don't

As posted before, I don't wish ill of the average Brit, nor to see the UK "punished" for having the temerity to exit EU.

My stance on Brexit, any prejudice aside (most of the time I hope, when I keep the rage in check ) is very simply that of a cartesian adult with a strong, perhaps overdeveloped, sense of personal responsibility and morality: anyone can make a mistake, but once it's made, only they can decide how to correct it, and in any case they must assume the entire consequences of that mistake. No endless blaming to harass them with, but no freebies either: just expecting contrition, reparations if damage was caused, and learning enough from the mistake not to repeat it again.

Given that context, all I want to see is Brits/the UK (England, really) made to lie in the bed they made for themselves, nothing more. Because I've been here long enough to know that not enough of them (i.e. a critical voting mass) will "get it" (overcome anti-EU bias and prejudice), until they've been through it at the coalface (actually got to feel and miss all of that, which the EU membership was actually doing for them).

It's the only pragmatic way of neutering the nationalist siren calls, given the UK's bipolar political system under the FPTP and the partisan press.

Politicians' head on spikes outside the Tower would be nice, though

Thomas__ wrote: »

I do understand your anger and certainly your disappointment, but unless you look for alternative solutions for the "Day X", which fits yourself and your family, you´ll all remain in this mess like it or not.
<...>
I really feel sorry for you, your family and all the others living in the UK who share the same problems you face.

Don't feel sorry, and worry not about little old me. I'm not trapped here

The fact that I'm still here now, is simply down to still having a good and easy life for now, and to fighting the good corporate fight while there's still a chance (-for the firm I'm in, with opening an EU office by March 2019). If and when that project should reach unachievable status by horizon March 2019, I'll be dropping them like yesterday's pants and ship out of the UK, family in tow.

Point taken and good luck to you.

Jim2007

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it won't be bankers moving to Dublin, it will be back office staff and it is unlikely that many of those will be actually moving here, as opposed to just being employed locally.

Go do some studying on Passporting, without it there is no point in leaving bankers in London! For financial services NY is the gateway to the US, Singapore to Asia and London used to be Europe, now it is about to be come the gateway to no where!

Moving back office to Dublin would not help in respect of BREXIT.

Thomas__

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

I am not surprised by that al all, at all. Maybe those stranded migrants on the French coast who want to get to the UK are also - in some ways - a reason for the result of this poll. It might be possible that after the UK has left the EU and together with that this special agreement between the UK and France, which allows border checks implemented by UK Border personell on French soil, will be suspended, France might just let them go to the UK cos the UK border personell would have to leave back to UK soil and close down their check points at Calais. Well, that won´t be welcomed by the British for this would cause some trouble for them to send them back, with France refusing to take them back, more so when they have no documentation (passports etc.).

murphaph

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Of course, I'm thinking of the API requirements, but the option of an ID card isn't open to British or Irish citizens, as there isn't one.

Regardless though, it is highly unlikely thst eu citizens will need a visa to enter the UK, so why go to all the hassle of going via Ireland, when they can just fly direct, or drive to Calais.

The Irish route means their comings and goings into and out of the UK remain completely undocumented. If you want to work in the UK's black economy (about to get a huge Brexit boost) then you travel via Ireland, which is well connected to most of Eastern Europe on budget airlines. The EU will, quite rightly, not tolerate Ireland passing on any EU national's details to a third country for the purposes of tracking who comes and goes.

It's a huge back door that's wide open and makes a mockery of taking back control of EU migration.

Once a few headlines appear in the DM etc highlighting the issue, the CTA will be called into question by an ever more insular UK.

Billy86

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

Its telling how difficult it is to tell if man of the replies are serious or not.

Fratton Fred

Calina wrote: »

Fred, you stated that EU citizens required passports to enter or leave the Schengen area. This is demonstrably not true.

You only need one if you live in an EU country that does not issue national ID cards.

I know, I corrected my statement in the following post. :rolleyes:

Calina wrote: »

As for the future who knows what will happen? The UK is being so batsh1t insane on this predictions are off. I certainly wouldn't rely on common sense being applied in the UK given yesterday's leaked document on immigration. Paranoia that some one not British might god before us and all harm want to live in Britain seems to be highly prevalent.

maybe then, you could explain how the UK's document on immigration differs on the eu's treatment of third country nationals?

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour. The UK supported the Irish position because it was similar to its own one.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits :rolleyes:

Jim2007 wrote: »

Go do some studying on Passporting, without it there is no point in leaving bankers in London! For financial services NY is the gateway to the US, Singapore to Asia and London used to be Europe, now it is about to be come the gateway to no where!

Moving back office to Dublin would not help in respect of BREXIT.

wtf is a banker by the way?

passporting is a doddle. Every major bank would have subsidiaries in european countries, those subsidiaries will be used to provide services in the eu.

As I said, there will not be wholescale moving of wealthy bankers (whatever a banker is) to Dublin. That is just fantasy stuff

Fratton Fred

murphaph wrote: »

The Irish route means their comings and goings into and out of the UK remain completely undocumented. If you want to work in the UK's black economy (about to get a huge Brexit boost) then you travel via Ireland, which is well connected to most of Eastern Europe on budget airlines

so how is that different to today? If someone from Brazil lands in Dublin, they can travel to the UK and work in the blackmarket, can they not?

Fratton Fred

Thomas__ wrote: »

I am not surprised by that al all, at all. Maybe those stranded migrants on the French coast who want to get to the UK are also - in some ways - a reason for the result of this poll. It might be possible that after the UK has left the EU and together with that this special agreement between the UK and France, which allows border checks implemented by UK Border personell on French soil, will be suspended, France might just let them go to the UK cos the UK border personell would have to leave back to UK soil and close down their check points at Calais. Well, that won´t be welcomed by the British for this would cause some trouble for them to send them back, with France refusing to take them back, more so when they have no documentation (passports etc.).

If they have no documentation then France would be breaking schengen rules by letting them leave France.

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If they have no documentation then France would be breaking schengen rules by letting them leave France.

Out of interest, in which forum would you expect the UK to enforce these rules after Brexit, i.e. after it has exited the jurisdiction of the EU and the EEA (of which the Schengen agreement/convention is now an integral part)?

ECJ, per chance?

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

Out of interest, in which forum would you expect the UK to enforce these rules after Brexit, i.e. after it has exited the jurisdiction of the EU and the EEA (of which the Schengen agreement/convention is now an integral part)?

ECJ, per chance?

The same one France uses when the UK stick them on a train back to Paris maybe?

oppenheimer1

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits :rolleyes:

It's not about the British being nasty. The British government has no mandate to act for Irish interests unless it's also in their own interest also. It's misleading to say the British government had Irelands "back", as if it was a favour by a good friend. The British government acts in the best interest of Britain (apparently), to further its own goals, no one else's. Sometimes it's a happy coincidence that they align with Ireland like on tax on others they don't align like CAP and take an opposite stance.

There is nothing personal about this and emotions like being nasty don't come into it.

To paraphrase Kissinger, there are no friends in international diplomacy, only interests.

Gerry T

Fratton Fred wrote:

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits

I don't remember when they did, other than genocide killing millions of us, removing our education etc... When have they helped us? And please don't quote an example where "helping" us was in their own best interest.

Chips Lovell

The topic of this thread is Brexit. Let's not turn it into another discussion of British rule.

murphaph

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so how is that different to today? If someone from Brazil lands in Dublin, they can travel to the UK and work in the blackmarket, can they not?

No! It's not the same. Currently the UK and Ireland share information about arrivals from third countries! That will not happen for EU citizens arriving in Ireland. Not a chance.

The Brazilian is recorded and gets a stamp in his passport as he enters Ireland. The Pole does not, nor will he after Brexit.

jm08

Fratton Fred wrote: »

passporting is a doddle. Every major bank would have subsidiaries in european countries, those subsidiaries will be used to provide services in the eu.

As a foreign bank, they would have to apply for a licence in every country they have a branch in (which takes between a year and 18 months to get).

As I said, there will not be wholescale moving of wealthy bankers (whatever a banker is) to Dublin. That is just fantasy stuff

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

Currently the UK and Ireland share information about arrivals from third countries!

The also have access to the Schengen information system, which provides details of such things as if the person was rejected for Schengen visa, fined for an overstay or was deported.

Usually if you are on a Schengen black list, getting into Ireland or the UK is almost impossible - the idea is that if you did it once, you'll do it again.

Jim2007

jm08 wrote: »

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

Not at all many of them have their fall back systems, data centres etc in Frankfurt.

Fratton Fred

jm08 wrote: »

As a foreign bank, they would have to apply for a licence in every country they have a branch in (which takes between a year and 18 months to get).

As a foreign bank, yes. But most of them (if not all) will not be foreign banks. They will own subsidiaries in at least one or more european country, if indeed they aren't actually French or German banks in the first place.

HSBC estimate that maybe 1000 jobs could move to Paris (they employ 43,000 in the UK) to cover the 20% of its business that will be affected by a hard Brexit.

jm08 wrote: »

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

moving the europe's second largest financial centre is an unusual move?