Brexit discussion thread II

Professor Moriarty

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In layman's terms:

Okay you can probably stay in the EU for a while but you'e going to follow our rules and that's that.

Exactly. The Tory spin should be amusing.

flatty

That sounds like something he'd prepared earlier.
Lord knows what is going on beneath the surface.

StringerBell

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

solodeogloria

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

Good evening!

Yes, but that's what the UK requires right now.

Buying time is definitely the right thing to do while it makes major preparations for the next stage in the UK's history. I think the Prime Minister did a great job at presenting her stall and she set the right tone without bending to all of the demands from Brussels.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A Little Pony

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

Exactly. A waste of everyone's time. Why bother doing that when by 2021 Brexit happens anyway. Pointless panic nonsense by May who just can't handle the heat in the kitchen, well get the hell out then.

demfad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A Tweet from Bojo:

PM speech was positive, optimistic & dynamic - and rightly disposes of the Norway option! Forwards!

He's nothing but a coward considering his bluff and bluster last weekend.

It is rumoured that he has been boasting since the cabinet meeting that he was able to force May away from a 3 year transition request and a more substantive speech.

His essay last weekend was also no doubt intended to undermine her speech.

Hard for EU to really trust the UK side when the PM could be ousted by a sniping, lying Foreign Secretary at any moment.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

To be honest, I don't think she'll last until Christmas. It's in the EU's interest to continue stonewalling the negotiations. Not least because stonewalling will sow further discontent within an already divided cabinet and a crumbling Tory party will suit the EU's agenda just fine.

Do you honestly think that the EU are stonewalling? From my perspective the EU has set out their stall and are still waiting for the UK to do likewise.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you honestly think that the EU are stonewalling? From my perspective the EU has set out their stall and are still waiting for the UK to do likewise.

I do. It's in their best interests. Remember, the EU never wanted Brexit in the first place. By setting out their stall, i.e. no trade talks until the CTA, Citizens rights, and the Brexit bill are sorted, they are stonewalling Britain. In reality, there is no reason why there couldn't be parallel talks.

Professor Moriarty

Good quote from Corbyn:

"...Theresa May and her Conservative cabinet colleagues are spending more time negotiating with each other rather than with the EU."

Junkyard Tom

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

In stark terms, in a few years, a lot of the people who voted to leave the EU will be dead while an awful lot of young people, who tend to be more outward looking, will be voting for anyone but the Tories.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I do. It's in their best interests. Remember, the EU never wanted Brexit in the first place. By setting out their stall, i.e. no trade talks until the CTA, Citizens rights, and the Brexit bill are sorted, they are stonewalling Britain. In reality, there is no reason why there couldn't be parallel talks.

But the UK hasn't even engaged meaningfully on any of these issues. I honestly thought the budget issue would have been in full blown discussion at this stage. The UK hasn't even agreed a means to calculate their liabilities. They swing back and forth between a vague "of course we'll pay our liabilities" to "we'll pay nothing without a trade agreement". Remember the UK agreed to this timetable after refusing to have the fight of the summer. What is the point in discussing trade if all those discussions will be rendered null because the UK can't even engage on the EU's redline issues?

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

But the UK hasn't even engaged meaningfully on any of these issues. I honestly thought the budget issue would have been in full blown discussion at this stage. The UK hasn't even agreed a means to calculate their liabilities. They swing back and forth between a vague "of course we'll pay our liabilities" to "we'll pay nothing without a trade agreement". Remember the UK agreed to this timetable after refusing to have the fight of the summer. What is the point in discussing trade if all those discussions will be rendered null because the UK can't even engage on the EU's redline issues?

It can't engage meaningfully. It literally doesn't know what outcome it wants so it can't put forward a negotiating position. The one important matter it wants settled (because indigenous and multinational companies are very skittish about Brexit) is what kind of trade agreement it will have with the EU post Brexit. But the EU refuses to engage on that matter until the CTA, Brexit bill and Citizens' Rights have been agreed (stonewalling). Britain has no concrete position on these matters. So negotiations essentially haven't even begun. Today's speech was basically a capitulation and a plea for leniency.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It can't engage meaningfully. It literally doesn't know what outcome it wants so it can't put forward a negotiating position. The one important matter it wants settled (because indigenous and multinational companies are very skittish about Brexit) is what kind of trade agreement it will have with the EU post Brexit. But the EU refuses to engage on that matter until the CTA, Brexit bill and Citizens' Rights have been agreed (stonewalling). Britain has no concrete position on these matters. So negotiations essentially haven't even begun. Today's speech was basically a capitulation and a plea for leniency.

I honestly don't see how the UK being incompetent equates to EU stonewalling. If the UK had it's house in order from day one the EU may have judged that sufficient progress had been made to open trade discussions.

The UK should be shown leniency when it figures out how its not going to reignite a bloody sectarian war and not make millions of people second class citizens. If they managed that I would actually let them off the money.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I honestly don't see how the UK being incompetent equates to EU stonewalling. If the UK had it's house in order from day one the EU may have judged that sufficient progress had been made to open trade discussions.

The UK should be shown leniency when it figures out how its not going to reignite a bloody sectarian war and not make millions of people second class citizens. If they managed that I would actually let them off the money.

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

Verhofstadt had this to say today about Ireland after May's speech:

Apart from citizens' rights and the financial settlement, the EU always made clear that the Irish question is one of our priorities. I didn't hear yet how the UK government wants to avoid a hard border or physical checks on the island of Ireland. This only seems possible if Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union.

The DUP will be thrilled. Here's his full statement. It's not particularly conciliatory.

blanch152

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

Verhofstadt had this to say today about Ireland after May's speech:

Apart from citizens' rights and the financial settlement, the EU always made clear that the Irish question is one of our priorities. I didn't hear yet how the UK government wants to avoid a hard border or physical checks on the island of Ireland. This only seems possible if Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union.

The DUP will be thrilled. Here's his full statement. It's not particularly conciliatory.

I wouldn't call it stonewalling.

The EU are insisting that the UK stick to the agenda they agreed. It is a matter of trust. It is also a matter of stronger negotiating position. May was practically begging for help and the EU aren't listening. Like a parent with a schoolchild, they are telling the UK to do their homework before they can play with the big boys.

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU could easily have agreed to parallel talks which would probably have assuaged companies' fears. But they didn't, knowing that the Brexit bill and the CTA in particular would be very difficult.

The EU isn't on the same side as the UK it's not their job to assure UK companies. This is the UK's mess and while the EU shouldn't be vendictive it's also not their job to play nanny to the UK's economic confidence.

A Little Pony

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

StringerBell wrote: »

I hear the sound of a can being kicked down the road really.

In stark terms, in a few years, a lot of the people who voted to leave the EU will be dead while an awful lot of young people, who tend to be more outward looking, will be voting for anyone but the Tories.

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Vince Cable seems to be quite keen on the position going so far as to say that his winning an election is a possibility. His party are enthusiastically opposed to Brexit and winning is the only way they can stop it.

He was even going on about how he could be the next PM.

They got 7.4% of the national vote last time.

At one stage he'd have been considered the only sane leader left in England. Now someone is going to have to remind him how First Past The Post works in practice. Must be something in the water over there.

Capt'n Midnight

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

It's actually how the world works. Old ideas die with their last believers die. It's happened to religions, languages and even politics.

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’
- Lord Heseltine


Probably a good time to remind anyone interested that support for staying in the EU was 99% amongst Full Time Students here.

Junkyard Tom

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

Have you looked at the polls lately? Have you been following the local elections in Britain? Have you been following the Labour-led crowd-funding for targeting CON's Westminster seats? Have you taken a look at the seats that the CON's are holding onto with slim majorities? I doubt you have.

The CON's are taking a pasting. If things keep going the way they are the CON's won't have a majority again for a generation.

The Rape of Lucretia

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’[/URL]
- Lord Heseltine


Probably a good time to remind anyone interested that support for staying in the EU was 99% amongst Full Time Students here.

But as people get older, they get more conservative !

oppenheimer1

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Yes, but that's what the UK requires right now.

Buying time is definitely the right thing to do while it makes major preparations for the next stage in the UK's history. I think the Prime Minister did a great job at presenting her stall and she set the right tone without bending to all of the demands from Brussels.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Buying time is exactly what they're doing. A cool €20bn, for two years + the withdrawal payment, whenever that happens.

The UK is heading for Brexit-lite, it's unlikely a meaningful exit is now going to take place. I wonder will the Tory party be able to survive this?

A Little Pony

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

It's actually how the world works. Old ideas die with their last believers die. It's happened to religions, languages and even politics.

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’
- Lord Heseltine


Probably a good time to remind anyone interested that support for staying in the EU was 99% amongst Full Time Students here.

This same argument was used when Tony Blair was cleaning up, people said the Conservatives would never gain power again and that social liberalism which cursed the nation would deny them. But politics is always on the move, you can't just say because some 16 year old who dislikes Brexit will be against it when he is 45 with 3 kids.

A Little Pony

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Why do people always use this argument? It's been used for generations and generations but it's just bollocks. The world does not work like that.

Have you looked at the polls lately? Have you been following the local elections in Britain? Have you been following the Labour-led crowd-funding for targeting CON's Westminster seats? Have you taken a look at the seats that the CON's are holding onto with slim majorities? I doubt you have.

The CON's are taking a pasting. If things keep going the way they are the CON's won't have a majority again for a generation.

They don't need a majority to remain in government. Labour won't be gaining any majority for probably another 10 years when inevitably it switches, not with Jeremy Corbyn as leader. It's near impossible with such policies to form an overall majority.

solodeogloria

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's actually how the world works. Old ideas die with their last believers die. It's happened to religions, languages and even politics.

‘One thing which is just worth having in mind: 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative’
- Lord Heseltine


Probably a good time to remind anyone interested that support for staying in the EU was 99% amongst Full Time Students here.

Good evening!

Leaving the ignorant comments about "religions" aside. (it's only nominal pick and mix faith that's dying)

The idea that's dying is that Britain somehow needs to be a part of a European superstate to survive. Lord Heseltine is one of the last adherents.

Half of those who voted remain just want the Prime Minister to get the job done (myself included) from YouGov polling. Lord Heseltine is assuming that every remain voter would vote to join again. That's definitely not true.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The Rape of Lucretia

solodeogloria wrote: »

The idea that's dying is that Britain somehow needs to be a part of a European superstate to survive.

Straw man there buddy. No one ever said the 'survival' of Britain was in question post Britain. Only that it would be economically and culturally better off as part of Europe, and that leaving would be harmful on both fronts. But fair enough if the less educated of its population tipped a balance towards dreaming of the old empire and kicking bloody foreigners out.
Of course it will survive. Just be the poorer for being outside the EU.

FrancieBrady

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Straw man there buddy. No one ever said the 'survival' of Britain was in question post Britain. Only that it would be economically and culturally better off as part of Europe, and that leaving would be harmful on both fronts. But fair enough if the less educated of its population tipped a balance towards dreaming of the old empire and kicking bloody foreigners out.
Of course it will survive. Just be the poorer for being outside the EU.

'The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland' may not survive.

LeinsterDub

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Straw man there buddy. No one ever said the 'survival' of Britain was in question post Britain. Only that it would be economically and culturally better off as part of Europe, and that leaving would be harmful on both fronts. But fair enough if the less educated of its population tipped a balance towards dreaming of the old empire and kicking bloody foreigners out.
Of course it will survive. Just be the poorer for being outside the EU.

Well it all depends on harsh brexit is and if you'd consider England and Wales on their own to be Britain.

Billy86

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

But as people get older, they get more conservative !

I'd You could also argue it's more common that as people get older the world around them just gets more progressive.

The Rape of Lucretia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Well it all depends on harsh brexit is and if you'd consider England and Wales on their own to be Britain.

I would. Scotland they would like to hang on to for the sake of tradition, integration, and geographical unity - but it would still be Britain without it. Northern Ireland is just a legacy problem child, and being rid of it would be a dream come true for them.

A Little Pony

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote: »

The idea that's dying is that Britain somehow needs to be a part of a European superstate to survive.

Straw man there buddy. No one ever said the 'survival' of Britain was in question post Britain. Only that it would be economically and culturally better off as part of Europe, and that leaving would be harmful on both fronts. But fair enough if the less educated of its population tipped a balance towards dreaming of the old empire and kicking bloody foreigners out.
Of course it will survive. Just be the poorer for being outside the EU.

The UK wasn't always in the EU and the EU will collapse sooner or later. The likes of Juncker and Barnier remind me of Honorius in 410. It is very difficult to keep countries united which are either ethnically or culturally different to one another in a 'club' in this case the EU.

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

murphaph

Nothing new in the speech at all. Just asked for an extension to continue dithering.

The Rape of Lucretia

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK wasn't always in the EU and the EU will collapse sooner or later. The likes of Juncker and Barnier remind me of Honorius in 410. It is very difficult to keep countries united which are either ethnically or culturally different to one another in a 'club' in this case the EU.

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

The troublesome pillar was always off to the side and never part of the structure. EU was there before it, and have removed the rotten apple, its hard to see it not being stronger without the UK despite the loss of a significant economic component. It really could be the making of the EU as the whinger in the back seat that keeps reaching forward to pull the handbrake is left on the side of the road.

murphaph

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK wasn't always in the EU and the EU will collapse sooner or later. The likes of Juncker and Barnier remind me of Honorius in 410. It is very difficult to keep countries united which are either ethnically or culturally different to one another in a 'club' in this case the EU.

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

This old chestnut again. To be honest since Brexit I've begun to feel culturally closer to my fellow Europeans who want to remain united.

A Little Pony

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

Are you calling the UK a pillar? The UK has never been a pillar of the EU a 5th column perhaps.

The UK is a major country in the EU, next to Germany and France. It leaving is a huge historical symbol which the history books in 200 years time will show was the sign of the eventual breakup of the EU concept. It's happened throughout history.

The Rape of Lucretia

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK is a major country in the EU, next to Germany and France. It leaving is a huge historical symbol which the history books in 200 years time will show was the sign of the eventual breakup of the EU concept. It's happened throughout history.

Predictions about 200 years time are a valueless currency.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK is a major country in the EU, next to Germany and France. It leaving is a huge historical symbol which the history books in 200 years time will show was the sign of the eventual breakup of the EU concept. It's happened throughout history.

It could just as easily be the first sign of a once powerful state regressing/reverting to what it actually is, a small isolated self-involved island off Europe.

What do you make of the talk of a sea border to solve the Irish problem?

Professor Moriarty

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK wasn't always in the EU and the EU will collapse sooner or later. The likes of Juncker and Barnier remind me of Honorius in 410. It is very difficult to keep countries united which are either ethnically or culturally different to one another in a 'club' in this case the EU.

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

Why do they remind you of Honorius in 410? Are the Vandals invading Rome again? Is Rome refusing to send money to Britain again?

Perhaps a better comparison from 410 would be Constantine III and Theresa May. I look forward to her execution next year.

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

This old chestnut again. To be honest since Brexit I've begun to feel culturally closer to my fellow Europeans who want to remain united.

Good evening!

The more and more I've seen from Brussels, the less and less I feel for the European project. It's been a settling time. I used to be a Eurosceptic who wanted the European Union to reform. I've now stopped believing that was ever possible and started to see that if the only reasons people can offer for staying in are fearmongering then it's just better to go.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

eire4

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It could just as easily be the first sign of a once powerful state regressing/reverting to what it actually is, a small isolated self-involved island off Europe.

What do you make of the talk of a sea border to solve the Irish problem?

Or you could even say it was seen as the begining of the end for the UK as it breaks up starting with Scottish independence.

mountaintop

Resigning from this thread. The bigot Brexiteers can't see any point of view but their own, going round and round in circles. The days of 'No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish' still apply except the sign reads 'No Poles, No Romanians, No Refugees', and the people putting up the signs are the quisling Irish who've forgotten where they come from. I'll probably get another warning from the moderator for this. Would someone do the same with Donald Trump on twitter. At least there's no fear of me starting World War Three.

A Little Pony

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

The UK wasn't always in the EU and the EU will collapse sooner or later. The likes of Juncker and Barnier remind me of Honorius in 410. It is very difficult to keep countries united which are either ethnically or culturally different to one another in a 'club' in this case the EU.

By 2030-2045 I think you will see other countries having left the EU. Once one of the pillars collapses, it's just a matter of time before it tumbles.

Why do they remind you of Honorius in 410? Are the Vandals invading Rome again? Is Rome refusing to send money to Britain again?

Perhaps a better comparison from 410 would be Constantine III and Theresa May. I look forward to her execution next year.

Rome was already in decline, the main thrust of the argument is moments change history. Nothing I have seen from the EU says to me they are clever enough to breath new life into the project. Juncker has already given his vision for the EU and instead of being the concept of a common market  but what it has always been which is ever closer union and bureaucratic control over nation states, it's near on impossible to keep it together after Brexit.

Beechwoodspark

murphaph wrote: »

Nothing new in the speech at all. Just asked for an extension to continue dithering.

Balderdash and bluster , as Boris would say

Professor Moriarty

A Little Pony wrote: »

Rome was already in decline, the main thrust of the argument is moments change history. Nothing I have seen from the EU says to me they are clever enough to breath new life into the project. Juncker has already given his vision for the EU and instead of being the concept of a common market  but what it has always been which is ever closer union and bureaucratic control over nation states, it's near on impossible to keep it together after Brexit.

It will definitely be difficult, especially with the recent return of nationalistic and far right elements. However, the alternative is the disintegration of what has been a very positive institution for the large majority of members and the prospect dozens of disparate and competing nations vying to make themselves relevant across the continent. That hasn't worked out too well in the past. Also, with the rise of China and other powers, there is an obvious need for a large European bloc that carries weight globally. Ní neart go cur le chéile.

Fratton Fred

Snickers Man wrote: »

Hmm. No mention of NATO. Despite a section on security co-operation.

A new "NATO-light" organisation within five years or less: Britain, US, possibly Norway and Turkey with a tentative arms-length alliance with Russia. And the rest of Europe in a new alliance which we might call a "Euro army" for convenience.

Which side will Ireland join? Or will it try to stay neutral again?

And from whom will the bigger threat come?

Surely that would alienate Poland? I can't see them choosing a relatively weak euro army over NATO.

Jim2007

solodeogloria wrote: »

I used to be a Eurosceptic who wanted the European Union to reform. I've now stopped believing that was ever possible and started to see that if the only reasons people can offer for staying in are fearmongering then it's just better to go.

You only have to look back over the last 40 years to see how capable of change the EU is. That fact that it is not going in the direction you want is your problem, not the EUs.

Professor Moriarty

Jim2007 wrote: »

You only have to look back over the last 40 years to see how capable of change the EU is. That fact that it is not going in the direction you want is your problem, not the EUs.

As May confirmed today, Britain never really wanted to be part of the EU anyway. Best to cast them adrift and get on with the business of building a powerful bloc of nations.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As May confirmed today, Britain never really wanted to be part of the EU anyway. Best to cast them adrift and get on with the business of building a powerful bloc of nations.

When the dust of Brexit sett!es it will be really interesting to see how the EU evolves.
I never understood the half hearted UK involvement nor why they were let away with it.

The Rape of Lucretia

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When the dust of Brexit sett!es it will be really interesting to see how the EU evolves.
I never understood the half hearted UK involvement nor why they were let away with it.

That they did shows what Brexiters didnt want to see - it was indeed democratic !

Samaris

Oh look, the UK tried to change the discussion to trade again. Hear my surprise.