Brexit discussion thread II

steddyeddy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I've come to the conclusion that the DUP are incapable of taking responsibility for anything, they will always have an external actor to blame.

It doesn't matter how bad it gets in the north the DUP will blame Boeing, the EU, Ireland for 'poaching investment', communists, gay people, a pan-nationalist conspiracy, the British government, pixies, whatever, they're irredeemable.

The North is given vast handouts to stay afloat. That's the reason this sort of politics survives. I can't see the North as an entity surviving Brexit though.

steddyeddy

The UK defense secretary threatens boeing with the loss of military contracts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41397181

The government has warned aircraft manufacturer Boeing it could lose UK defence contracts over its part in a US decision to slap punitive tariffs of 219% on rival Bombardier, in a dispute that threatens to sour trade relations between London and Washington.

Theresa May said she was “bitterly disappointed” by the move to impose a tariff on sales of Bombardier’s C-Series passenger jet, which threatens at least 1,000 manufacturing jobs in Northern Ireland.

Michael Fallon, the UK defence secretary, stepped up the government’s rhetoric, warning that Boeing’s assault on Bombardier “could jeopardise” its chances of securing government contracts.

The business secretary, Greg Clark, joined the chorus of disapproval, branding the ruling “unjustified” and vowing to work with Canada - where Bombardier is based - to get it overturned.

Capt'n Midnight

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK defense secretary threatens boeing with the loss of military contracts.

Boeing have a large supply chain in the UK so it'll be interesting to see how the UK handles this. Will NI get thrown under the bus if push comes to shove ? Or will this be made go away by backroom deals and contracts by Canada and/or UK for more Boeing kit ?

Either way it'll be a good test of how well the UK and DUP do in the new world.

http://www.boeing.co.uk/boeing-in-the-uk/value.page

Since 2011 Boeing's spending with UK suppliers has tripled, supporting an estimated 16,500 jobs in the UK supply chain, a rise of 80%. In 2016 Boeing spent £2.1 billion with UK suppliers, up from £744m in 2011.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Boeing have a large supply chain in the UK so it'll be interesting to see how the UK handles this. Will NI get thrown under the bus if push comes to shove ? Or will this be made go away by backroom deals and contracts by Canada and/or UK for more Boeing kit ?

Either way it'll be a good test of how well the UK and DUP do in the new world.

http://www.boeing.co.uk/boeing-in-the-uk/value.page

Id imagine May will have to fight Washington tooth and nail here because the only thing propping up her government is the DUP and the DUP will certainly keep the heat on her to do so or else 1000 jobs are lost in their own backyard.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Id imagine May will have to fight Washington tooth and nail here

Do you imagine anyone in Washington will notice?

murphaph

This is an interesting precursor for the UK of what it's like as a mid sized economy to deal with the protectionist administration under Trump.

The US never tried this on with Airbus because the EU can retaliate in kind and massively damage US aerospace industries. The Canadian market is tiny in comparison.

The UK will be fighting such battles on its own post Brexit. Best of luck with that.

Junkyard Tom

murphaph wrote: »

The US never tried this on with Airbus.

They did. There's a good thread on Twitter here explaining how the EU acts as a counterbalance to the US on such matters and how an 'independent' Britain might fare on its own. Here are the first two posts:

People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1

What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2

Enzokk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They did. There's a good thread on Twitter here explaining how the EU acts as a counterbalance to the US on such matters and how an 'independent' Britain might fare on its own. Here are the first two posts:

People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1

What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2

And that dispute is still ongoing between the EU and US over Boeing and Airbus. It seems a little like MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) where the two blocks are keeping each other in check, but smaller nations not affiliated to one of the two could be swept aside. The UK decided its a good idea to go at it alone. For that I blame the politicians still going ahead with A50, they should know it will hurt the UK more if they plunge ahead...but democratic vote based on lies trumps common sense I believe.

Samaris

Thanks for the twitter link, that was very well explained.

Another point that was brought up is that this is such an awful time to make this decision, and in a very rushed way. I saw someone...not sure if it was in this thread or elsewhere that, when someone brought up how quickly Article 50 was invoked, complained that nine months was far too long. And I think that level of ..well..plain ignorance is the most dangerous part of all of this.

Very few people understand all the complexities. Tbh, I'd say nobody actually understands all the complexities of this. It ranges from individual exports and imports to how to keep chemotherapy going to nuclear plants to figuring out the wild card market that is currently the US, to how Britain will feed itself to impacts on Sterling and every other damn thing too. And this while the world is coming out of a recession and economies are still a bit fragile.

Of all the plans that absolutely could not be rushed, Brexit is one of them. And it has been rushed, experts are sidelined and apparently the whole thing is running on pipedreams and wild guesses as the negotiators try to please their own country (who have been told ridiculous lies to the point where they cannot believe the reality of the situation) and come up with something the EU will accept (although they don't seem to be trying very hard there), while the Foreign Sec. is apparently trying to undermine the PM (for a leadership run? God knows).

And this, by the way, was pretty much where I was going when I commented that other countries do not have to deal with a free-roaming Britain with the same cautious politeness that they deal with the EU bloc as a whole, because Britain needs these deals a hell of a lot more than other states do. Trump's being short-sighted as well, ofc, but that was to be expected.

Water John

Will history treat Cameron, Farage et al, with the odium they deserve?

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Do you imagine anyone in Washington will notice?

All the same if she does nothing or is seen to do nothing then the Tory government is goosed.

If America had to go to war somewhere tomorrow though I would reckon they need Britain more than they think

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

Will history treat Cameron, Farage et al, with the odium they deserve?

No.

More odium than they are getting now, yes, but the i think the refusal by Brexiteers to admit that they have shot themselves in the foot will persist.

The history books in the UK will be all "some people say" that the depression of the 2020s could have been avoided etc.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

All the same if she does nothing or is seen to do nothing then the Tory government is goosed.

Yes, this is the reason for all of May's actions. Brexit, trade - none of it is being done to achieve any goal except to stay leader of a Tory-led government for as long as possible.

And when it all comes crashing down, she will walk away singing to herself like David Cameron did.

The good of the nation? Who cares?

Water John

Was always of the opinion that one of the reasons for obfuscations was to hope for division to open within EU.

'With efforts to open a second front in other European capitals running into the sand': Guardian referring to Davis touring the EU capitals.

This would be classic UK negotiating strategy, from the imperialist playbook.

steddyeddy

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

GalwayMark

I'd say the brexit campaign was funded by autocratic gulf monarchies and russian oligarchs who may have feared Brussels clamping down on their illicit wealth or that as most people said their is a mental illness known as 'Imperial Delusion Syndrome'.

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

Majority of NI's goods go to Britain I think. How would that be handled I wonder?

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

Given that Britain wants to quickly move on to trade talks whereas the EU is in no hurry and wants to agree citizen's rights, the bill and the border first, it would seem that, ironically, the EU is using Ireland as a bargaining chip. A trump card that Britain had planned to play. The phrase 'hoisted by your own petard' springs to mind.

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

Majority of NI's goods go to Britain I think. How would that be handled I wonder?

Something I came across from Policy Exchange (Tory think tank that Ray Basset is involved in) in a document on Brixit & Agric.

Northern Irish farms stand to face worse effects from customs controls since 65 per cent of the country’s agricultural exports go to Ireland, while less than 5 percent of Ireland’s agricultural exports are sent to the North.

The highest WTO trade tariffs are on food, particularly on dairy (about 30-40%) - then you have the EU food regs and standards. No wonder NI farmers want a 5 year transition!

Policy Exchange thinks that Brexit is a great opportunity for the UK to save the environment by basically forgetting about farming and growing more trees!

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/farming-tomorrow/

Enzokk

We need to talk about that bus. You know how the lie was used that leaving the EU would help the NHS? Seems that Lancet has done a review and they suggest, even in a soft Brexit that there will be negative consequences for the NHS. In case of anything but a soft Brexit the consequences could be catastrophic.

Brexit 'potentially catastrophic' for the health service, experts suggest in Lancet journal

Here are some of the quotes from the article,

Assessing three scenarios – “soft Brexit, hard Brexit, and failed Brexit” – the authors conclude in the Lancet medical journal that each poses a substantial threat to the NHS.

Even a so-called soft Brexit that retains access to the EU’s single market while restricting free movement is likely to have a big impact on health care, they claim.

“The workforce of the NHS is heavily reliant on EU staff,” the authors write. “Financing of health care for UK citizens in the EU and visa versa is threatened, as is access to some capital funds, while Brexit threatens overall economic performance. Access to pharmaceuticals, technology, blood and organs is jeopardised.” ...

...”The EU has shown that it recognises many of these threats, and we hope that our paper encourages the UK negotiating team to make health issues a priority.”

So the issue that swayed some voters to leave the EU, so they can fund the NHS, could be the death knell to the NHS. You have to wonder what concessions the EU could get to ensure the NHS doesn't suffer with Brexit. Do the government really want to give the EU concessions when it comes to the NHS?

And how will this effect the deal with NI and Ireland? There seems to be some very good cooperation regarding patient care between the NI and Ireland but what will it mean in future if there are barriers in place? Where will children from Northern Ireland go that at the moment go to Crumlin for surgery? Is this what the DUP intended? Who in their right mind voted for Brexit? And who, after seeing all the negative impacts that Brexit will have still thinks its the way to go?

I can still sort if understand that some people are so hard headed that they don't want to admit that they are wrong, but people are putting the future of the NHS in the hands of the government of the day. Are those Labour voters that voted to leave the EU really contented that the Tories will have the reins on the NHS when it comes to crucial decisions in the next 5 years?

No free healthcare in Ireland after leaving EU, UK visitors warned

Health officials in the Republic have already referred to shared care which exists between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Patients from Donegal have radiotherapy in Derry and children with congenital heart disease from Northern Ireland have their surgery in Our Lady's Hospital, Crumlin.

murphaph

jm08 wrote: »

Something I came across from Policy Exchange (Tory think tank that Ray Basset is involved in) in a document on Brixit & Agric.



The highest WTO trade tariffs are on food, particularly on dairy (about 30-40%) - then you have the EU food regs and standards. No wonder NI farmers want a 5 year transition!

Policy Exchange thinks that Brexit is a great opportunity for the UK to save the environment by basically forgetting about farming and growing more trees!

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/farming-tomorrow/

If another few percent of NI food gets exported to the EU then it could be argued that even if overall NI "exports" more to GB that it may still make sense for NI to remain in the customs union, if tariffs and regulations of the remaining industrial sectors are lower/simpler.

Still sure that the DUP will flat out refuse this and would collapse the government should it indicate a willingness to discuss it.

murphaph

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

In fairness to the parliament it's a very concrete proposal. We've had too much waffle up to now. Even if it's rejected by the UK, it invites a counter offer.

Christy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Given that Britain wants to quickly move on to trade talks whereas the EU is in no hurry and wants to agree citizen's rights, the bill and the border first, it would seem that, ironically, the EU is using Ireland as a bargaining chip. A trump card that Britain had planned to play. The phrase 'hoisted by your own petard' springs to mind.

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

Calina

On the NHS there is nothing the EU can do to protect it because privatisation by hook or crook is and has been Tory policy for years. This is why Hunt is Secretary of State for Health.

Many things have invited counter offer from the UK. Counterfluff is what has materialised.

ambro25

Well, at any rate, fun is highly likely to be had in Manchester this weekend:

Boris Johnson faces calls to be sacked after 'breaking Ministerial Code' with hard Brexit event

Some interesting ideas put forth by that Institute of Free Trade (a new hard Brexit think tank):

The Institute for Free Trade wants to roll back EU regulations, including on safety standards and workers’ rights, and unilaterally scrap all import tariffs, even if other countries do not reciprocate. It also believes that foreign aid should be slashed and supports allowing chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-injected beef to be sold in the UK.

Credit due where credit is due: outdoing UKIP in the trolling stakes takes some effort, but they still managed it!

murphaph

Christy42 wrote: »

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

The UK Treasury would get tariffs on goods "exported" to GB. Presumably the Treasury would also receive the tariffs on goods exported from GB to NI ports but a lot of goods go through Dublin on the way to NI. Those tariffs would have to go to the Irish Revenue. The tariff amounts would be the same however as they'd be the EU's external tariffs, north or south.

I think the sums are, in the grand scheme of things, are probably small enough that nobody really cares.

I suspect the border ports in NI would be manned by UK Border Force people, with occasional spot checks by Brussels. Irish Revenue officers are extremely unlikely to be chosen for this role IMO. It's politically explosive enough without Irish officials working the front line. Might be some special EU team, made up of other EU nationals.

Even this "clean" solution clearly throws up many issues.

Still can't believe it'll get any support in the UK, at least for now.

The Rape of Lucretia

"A survey of 2,220 people found that 34% of Leave voters admitted holding racist attitudes compared to 18% of Remain voters.

The study, conducted by the National Centre for Social Research, found 26% of Britons still described themselves as "very" or "a little" prejudiced towards people of other races."

So Brexit was swung by racism. In case anyone still had any doubts.

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

Those tariffs would have to go to the Irish Revenue.

The goods would not be exported to the EU, so no tariffs apply. There would need to be a bonded process, but that is it. Same as current process for goods moving south through the Swiss Alps.

Thomas__

Calina wrote: »

On the NHS there is nothing the EU can do to protect it because privatisation by hook or crook is and has been Tory policy for years. This is why Hunt is Secretary of State for Health.

Many things have invited counter offer from the UK. Counterfluff is what has materialised.

Never noticed that the EU ever had any interest in protecting the NHS for by other examples, the EU is more championing privatisation. That means that even if the UK would remain an EU member state and would privatise the NHS, the EU had probably no objections to it at all.

Calina

The NHS comment was in rrsponse to Enzok

jm08

Christy42 wrote: »

Who would get the tariffs on goods from the UK to NI? Who would control the border given it is within the UK but would be an EU border? The article does not go into much detail.

Still the best solution so far.

Westminister could devolve tax collecting powers to Stormont (it was going to change corporate tax rate for NI anyway). EU goods inspectors would have to be at the ports on the whole island of Ireland I think.

Nody

Thomas__ wrote: »

Never noticed that the EU ever had any interest in protecting the NHS for by other examples, the EU is more championing privatisation. That means that even if the UK would remain an EU member state and would privatise the NHS, the EU had probably no objections to it at all.

Seeing how national Healthcare is executed is not with in EU's scope they would not say anything about it; same way they would not comment on the color of a nation's flag...

jm08

Chicken safety scandal unravelling in UK.

UK's top supplier of supermarket chicken fiddles food safety dates

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/28/uks-top-supplier-of-supermarket-chicken-fiddles-food-safety-dates

Informative that its the Guardian and ITV have detected it, not the UK food processing inspectors as happened in Ireland with horsemeat scandal.

Huexotzingo

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Professor Moriarty

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Very interesting indeed. Can't see the Torygraph copying this article somehow. The last paragraph is telling:

In the fourth quarter of last year, a sharp outflow of gold showed up as a sudden spike in exports, causing some economists to conclude that Britain's manufacturers were starting to benefit from a post-Brexit jump in confidence.
In fact, the spike was primarily a sign of investors pulling gold out of vaults in London.

Enzokk

Huexotzingo wrote: »

Here's an interesting article by Sky News on the effect of Gold "exports".

Britain's real exports to outside the EU are actually far lower than official figures suggest.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very interesting indeed. Can't see the Torygraph copying this article somehow. The last paragraph is telling:

In the fourth quarter of last year, a sharp outflow of gold showed up as a sudden spike in exports, causing some economists to conclude that Britain's manufacturers were starting to benefit from a post-Brexit jump in confidence.
In fact, the spike was primarily a sign of investors pulling gold out of vaults in London.

Another Brexit myth being exposed. When will people realise that most of it is just smoke and mirrors? How many are there now?

The UK always had sovereignty over the EU.

The UK could control EU immigration more to ensure that people don't come over just to claim benefits.

The immigration of the EU doesn't bring down wages in a significant way and it is non-EU immigration that has more of an effect on wages.

The NHS will not get better as it is closely tied to the EU for staff and funding.

demfad

ambro25 wrote: »

Well, at any rate, fun is highly likely to be had in Manchester this weekend:

Boris Johnson faces calls to be sacked after 'breaking Ministerial Code' with hard Brexit event

Some interesting ideas put forth by that Institute of Free Trade (a new hard Brexit think tank):
Credit due where credit is due: outdoing UKIP in the trolling stakes takes some effort, but they still managed it!

This looks like a rehash of the 'Atlantic Bridge' which caused Liam Fox to resign in disgrace in 2011.

The Atlantic Council was partnered with American Legislative Exchange Council. This is a Koch run (I believe) conservative think tank (bigger than Heritage foundation). It creates model bills (prefab bills to hand to legislators for "reducing regulation and individual and corporate taxation, combating illegal immigration, loosening environmental regulations, tightening voter identification rules, weakening labor unions, and opposing gun control"

The partnership was anti single market wanting the low regulation US to be able to trade with UK (and single market if UK could influence regulations).

Clearly, Liam Fox was chosen for his current role based on these connections. This proves hard Brexit was always the plan (otherwise no trade deal with US possible, no need for Fox).

Johnson's association with these explains his hard Brexit recent push.

It will be interesting to see the Tory line on Johnsons using State property.
In the US the line between corporate power and government is gone: corporations rule that country. ALEC write much of the legislation now in Trumpland.

Johnson looks like he is the UK puppet for these guys to be honest. There are plenty of disaster capitalists in their number and as with Lagatum a disorderly Brexit is not a disaster.

murphaph

Jim2007 wrote: »

The goods would not be exported to the EU, so no tariffs apply. There would need to be a bonded process, but that is it. Same as current process for goods moving south through the Swiss Alps.

Surely if goods move from GB to any part of Ireland under this proposal, it would be considered "exported to EU" if NI remains in the EU customs union, thus tariffs would apply?

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

In fairness to the parliament it's a very concrete proposal. We've had too much waffle up to now. Even if it's rejected by the UK, it invites a counter offer.

Good afternoon!

It seems like you think anything that comes from Brussels is "concrete".

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

whatstherush

solodeogloria wrote: »

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

Hold on, you have been preaching for weeks that border with NI/IRL out of the CU was nothing to worry about and should be solved by IRL and the EU and now if that border is moved to the Irish sea it's something that won't even be entertained by the UK. Could not your fore mentioned "creativity and flexibility" be brought to bare on the issue since that's all that's needed to solve any issues involving border treaties. Oh and let's not forget the blue sky technology, that will surely help too!

Calina

The EU has always been flexible. Opt outs from Schengen. From the euro. From the Social charter. Rebate.

The UK takes flexibility for granted. And now it demands it.

The Rape of Lucretia

solodeogloria wrote: »

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

But what is 'flexible' ?

Creative, imaginative, flexible - are these not just place-holder terms from the UK that at the minute are just more politically expedient than writing :

"we havent a clue what to do on this point. Maybe someone else does - EU ? Irl? No. Bummer. Yes, we are asking for a solution to this issue that is simply an impossiblity. We know that fundamentally. But we hoped you might....No? OK. Anyway, lets just call the solution that doesnt or ever can exist, a flexible and imaginative one for the moment, because a great portion of the Brexit voters still havent been brought up to the level to understand this point. Thanks Brussels, you really are a brick".

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

You think the phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat how about this phrase "Any progress"

• No progress on NI. The UK have proposed an imaginary camera system and that is all
• No progress on outstanding liabilities, in fact the UK is refusing to even discuss this
• Little to no progress on citizen rights, the UK has made a weak offer with no means of enforcement other that trust us we are nice guys.

Zubeneschamali

solodeogloria wrote: »

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

No deal will be very expensive for the UK - an economic crash worse than 2008. GDP dropped 6.5% between 2008-09. The UK governments hard Brexit estimate back during Project Fear was 6%, but they didn't plan the kind of chaotic hard brexit which is the only possibility now.

So maybe double it - 12% drop, 12 years to get back on trend?

The Rape of Lucretia

Calina wrote: »

The UK takes flexibility for granted. And now it demands it.

Worse, it doesnt even know what that is, but is asking the EU to figure it out for it. Its a bit like saying : "look, I know we are negotiating here, but we are having a bit of trouble figuring out our side of things. Could you do it for us, because we havent a clue really what we want ourselves. We werent really expecting to have this whole Brexit thing in the first place, so, you guys are the experts. Go on. Do our homework too, please".

The Rape of Lucretia

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however.

No way. But his is the attitude that the UK is affecting as well. Sure, its issue and big worry is the post-Brexit relationship. And that is what it want to discuss, and the clock is ticking. But it seems to forget all the time, that there is a divorce to happen first. If they really knuckled down on this one, accepted they have outstanding bills to pay, accepted that they must solve the issue of EU citizens living in Britain, and accepted the Irish Border needs a solution where they, not EU, will have to yield to an unpalatable solution, then the Brexiting could progress. And then the post Brexit relationship. Phrase having your cake and eating it, is closely followed in the apt stakes on this issue, the one about the cart and the horse.

The Rape of Lucretia

The reality is, there has been no progress on these core issues as reitterated by Macron the other day. They are the crunch Brexit connundrums to resolve. Yet last week May was still waffling on closeness, future relationship, platitudes.

ambro25

solodeogloria wrote: »

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

I think it's high time that you understood that the EU27 held the vast majority of the cards -and all the high ones- prior to Ms May triggering Article 50; have been holding the entire deck since Ms May triggered Article 50; wherein "our way or the highway" has been the EU27's playbook all along.

Far from a rat, "sufficient progress" is the yardstick against which the UK position is measured relative to the EU27's playbook.

The fact Mr Davis himself agreed to it on day 1 of the negotiations, and that Ms May has been very slowly but equally surely steering the UK towards it since June 2016, is neither here nor there: time is running out faster than the domestic margin of political manoeuvre in the UK can be enlarged, due to continuing infighting.

The damage is done, and the UK is <still> snookered.

Zubeneschamali

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

If they really knuckled down on this one, accepted they have outstanding bills to pay, accepted that they must solve the issue of EU citizens living in Britain, and accepted the Irish Border needs a solution where they, not EU, will have to yield to an unpalatable solution, then the Brexiting could progress.

No, if they did those things the government would collapse, there would be an election and the current Government and Brexit negotiating team would be out on their ear.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You think the phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat how about this phrase "Any progress"

• No progress on NI. The UK have proposed an imaginary camera system and that is all
• No progress on outstanding liabilities, in fact the UK is refusing to even discuss this
• Little to no progress on citizen rights, the UK has made a weak offer with no means of enforcement other that trust us we are nice guys.

The Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, had this to say today:

“At the end of October, we will not have sufficient progress, I’m saying that there will be no sufficient progress from now until October unless miracles would happen.”

But the British press will continue to publish Tory lies, in particular Davis's delusional spin, that a breakthrough is imminent. None so blind as those who will not see.