Brexit discussion thread II

The Rape of Lucretia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, if they did those things the government would collapse, there would be an election and the current Government and Brexit negotiating team would be out on their ear.

In which case, there is no solution other than no deal, and Deo is correct.
Which despite the fighting May talk last year is a far far worse scenario for the UK than it is for the EU.
The Daily Mail and co whinging about punitive, vindictive EU wont put bread on the English table. And the Eu will have moved on and wont be listening anymore anyway.

listermint

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

It seems like you think anything that comes from Brussels is "concrete".

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Ah , you are back!

Excellent, I have been awaiting your thoughts on the bombardier trade fight that has just eclipsed issues in Northern Irish Politics. A trade war that the UK has zero chance of winning. One of many which you will be hit with when you drop out of the market power you had managed to wield over the last number of decades.

What are your thoughts on that deal, the current power the US has over you and how the same type of issue when trading with big block economies like India and China is going to effect Britain.

Zubeneschamali

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

In which case, there is no solution other than no deal, and Deo is correct.

Labour would seek to remain in the Single Market, a much easier thing to negotiate. The solution is to get the Tories out.

Panrich

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

It seems like you think anything that comes from Brussels is "concrete".

There's nothing concrete about it, the UK won't agree to erecting a hard border within the United Kingdom.

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

I'm starting to think that this phrase "sufficient progress" is a rat however. This phrase is being interpreted in Brussels as complete agreement with the EU's negotiating principles. This won't happen, we require flexibility on both sides for a deal.

In the event that Brussels are not willing to be flexible, I think it's time to work on the assumption of no deal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

You could be right. I'm not sure if this has been posted here before (it's from March), but it outlines that the EU should offer the UK a very bad deal and that the UK should accept it unless it's worse than no deal which is unlikely.

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/03/15/the-game-theory-of-brexit

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Labour would seek to remain in the Single Market, a much easier thing to negotiate. The solution is to get the Tories out.

Labour has a stated vision which is basically Tory's vision in a new name; limited single market access by limiting the possibility of "salary dumping" or in other ways stopping those pesky Polish plumbers from coming over which is simply a no go. The simple fact is Labour is as split as Tory on Brexit but Corbyn gets to gloss over it as he's not in charge.

Now personally the only interesting thing to come up will be May's speech at the Tory conference. Some rumours going around about her either pulling the plug early (can be done so they leave by 1st Jan 2018 by announcing it on the 11th and pulling the plug on 12th), will give EU a ultimatum to start talking trade or they will pull out (rofl) or that they will announce that they are pulling out from discussions for X months (rofl x2) to force EU to talk trade.

Now for any sane person any of the above is equivalent of loading the Brexit Russian roulette gun with even more bullets and UK stating they going to pull the trigger if they don't get what they want. Normally I'd say it would never happen but honestly at this stage I could see any of those three scenarios happening due to the stupidity of the Tory party at this stage. The thing is they still believe that EU will not let them crash out without a deal and hence their plucky spirit will rescue them in the end as EU gives in; I want them to finally get the dose of reality where they realize that EU will let them crash out to force them to negotiate in faith for the first time.

demfad

solodeogloria wrote: »

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

....

This again. The UK has chosen to remove itself from the EU therefore the EU's external border is now between the ROI and NI. The single market is a defensive market and the EU can't allow it to be breached.

The UK has stated it wants a 'frictionless border'.
It is up to the UK to suggest ways that allow the EU NOT to police it's border.
This means there MUST be regulatory equivalence between ROI and NI.

For that to happen you either have regulatory equivalence between UK as a whole and EU or between NI and EU. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY.

As the UK itself has ruled out the UK remaining in either the Customs Union or the Single market this means that the ONLY OPTION is that NI remains inside.

Perhaps you can come up with a feasable imaginative alternative?
Because in 18 months the British have come up with none .

demfad

Nody wrote: »

Now personally the only interesting thing to come up will be May's speech at the Tory conference. Some rumours going around about her either pulling the plug early (can be done so they leave by 1st Jan 2018 by announcing it on the 11th and pulling the plug on 12th), will give EU a ultimatum to start talking trade or they will pull out (rofl) or that they will announce that they are pulling out from discussions for X months (rofl x2) to force EU to talk trade.

Now for any sane person any of the above is equivalent of loading the Brexit Russian roulette gun with even more bullets and UK stating they going to pull the trigger if they don't get what they want. Normally I'd say it would never happen but honestly at this stage I could see any of those three scenarios happening due to the stupidity of the Tory party at this stage. The thing is they still believe that EU will not let them crash out without a deal and hence their plucky spirit will rescue them in the end as EU gives in; I want them to finally get the dose of reality where they realize that EU will let them crash out to force them to negotiate in faith for the first time.

Some have likened the UK pulling out as them putting a gun to their own head and asking the EU to surrender.
Remember though they are holding one EU country to ransom by this strategy. Ireland's economy will be destroyed also.

Nody

demfad wrote: »

Remember though they are holding one EU country to ransom by this strategy. Ireland's economy will be destroyed also.

Not really; Ireland's export to UK was 18% in goods and a lot of those goods UK will still need to buy (i.e. fresh food etc. as they don't have the capacity themselves to grow it etc.). Hence yes they can slap on a 40% tariff on the food but if they need to buy it anyway that's only a 40% tax on the UK population for those types of food which makes it likely that it would be excluded on tariffs. The main issue would be around the border (and the smuggling it would bring) and building up the infrastructure at the border to deal with it. That's something which Ireland is highly likely to get EU support to deal with (while UK will have to pay their own bill on it) along with further infrastructure improvements (internet, power etc. to the mainland).

So while UK blows it's head out Ireland would break an arm; it's not something you wish to happen but the severity are on very different levels.

Samaris

jm08 wrote: »

Chicken safety scandal unravelling in UK.

UK's top supplier of supermarket chicken fiddles food safety dates

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/28/uks-top-supplier-of-supermarket-chicken-fiddles-food-safety-dates

Informative that its the Guardian and ITV have detected it, not the UK food processing inspectors as happened in Ireland with horsemeat scandal.

Won't say where I was working for obvious reasons, but this doesn't surprise me at all. Worked at end-of-line preparing UK-bred chickens anyway and some of the sh*t* I found in these apparently cleaned chickens was unreal. Mostly issues like guts and stomachs (which can cause food poisoning if burst, including during the cooking process). A few times I found waste from already-burst innards. Once or twice I found something (ex)alive that definitely should not have been in there and...uh, okay the most spectacular one is a bit too identifiable.

Suffice to say that not surprised, even if disgusted. And not surprised that the workers felt little choice or compunction about going on with it. I remember some of the rows I had about using some of those chickens.

*term used intentionally and accurately.

demfad

Nody wrote: »

Not really; Ireland's export to UK was 18% in goods and a lot of those goods UK will still need to buy (i.e. fresh food etc. as they don't have the capacity themselves to grow it etc.). Hence yes they can slap on a 40% tariff on the food but if they need to buy it anyway that's only a 40% tax on the UK population for those types of food which makes it likely that it would be excluded on tariffs. The main issue would be around the border (and the smuggling it would bring) and building up the infrastructure at the border to deal with it. That's something which Ireland is highly likely to get EU support to deal with (while UK will have to pay their own bill on it) along with further infrastructure improvements (internet, power etc. to the mainland).

So while UK blows it's head out Ireland would break an arm; it's not something you wish to happen but the severity are on very different levels.

The issue at the border isnt fear of smuggling. It is being able to process legit trade. The border may not actually be solvable in the case of a hard disorderly Brexit.
There is no mutual recognition agreement between the UK (and anywhere else). The country of origin of every part of every product would have to be proven. Every container would have to be tested (2 weeks).
177k HGVs and 208k light vans cross the border every month.

What about agri-business?
NI agri-food % sales to Ireland - 42% dairy processing, 37% sheep processing - 42% of NI’s sheep/lambs processed in Ireland.

Also...

110m person border crossings each year - 15 main crossing points responsible for 43m recorded road vehicle crossings
2011 Census - 14,800 people commute for work/study. 2017 study - 270 Ireland pupils at NI secondary schools - 100 at primary school

We export a lot of food stuffs to the UK. The UK will still need it but with the massive delays at UK ports it may now spoil. Irish companies/farmers go out of business.

Any just in time business is in serious difficulty with the main route to EU being through the UK.

We can survive a hard Brexit. Disorderly hard Brexit would be catastrophic.
Neither UK nor Ireland can deal with no UK agreements with the rest of the world. It kills us too. Will the EU let Ireland collapse also?

demfad

Samaris wrote: »

Once or twice I found something (ex)alive that definitely should not have been in there and...uh, okay the most spectacular one is a bit too identifiable.

How do you mean identifiable? Does it belong to someone we all know?

Samaris

I suspect regarding Ireland that plans will start being put in place to reorganise Irish trading routes around the UK and directly to France or the Netherlands.

The EU doesn't want Ireland collapsing, it's bad for everyone. We're all hoping that the UK will get its act together and at least make a good imitation of rational actors, but as time moves on, it's becoming more and more of a pipe dream. It's a dangerous policy to start treating the UK as irrelevant too soon (such as by setting up those trade routes), but eventually it will have to be done and to hell with Britain's feelings on the matter (I'll place my bet on how it's reported now; "EU THREATENS Britain for Brexit with loss of Irish imports!" followed by "EU ATTACKS British Ports in REVENGE for Brexit!" - it is possible that I'm betting on the Express though, which does love its hyperbole.)

Samaris

demfad wrote: »

How do you mean identifiable? Does it belong to someone we all know?

The chicken? I'd say it's been long-since eaten :P (I actually don't recall what happened to that one, I think we sent it back). And nah, just the incident was nutty enough that anyone involved in it would know me by the story. Just caution is all!)

Professor Moriarty

Samaris wrote: »

The chicken? I'd say it's been long-since eaten :P (I actually don't recall what happened to that one, I think we sent it back). And nah, just the incident was nutty enough that anyone involved in it would know me by the story. Just caution is all!)

Serendipitously, this article from today's Torygraph.

I have a friend involved in food production and supply to British supermarkets and he says that M&S are infinitely more stringent in their food testing than other supermarkets.

ambro25

Samaris wrote: »

I suspect regarding Ireland that plans will start being put in place to reorganise Irish trading routes around the UK and directly to France or the Netherlands.

The EU doesn't want Ireland collapsing, it's bad for everyone. <...>

I suspect as much and that, faced with the exceptional circumstance of a disorderly Brexit brought about by the UK unilaterally, the EU would bend some relevant rules for the benefit of Ireland with equal exceptionalism

Far from 'not wanting' Ireland collapsing, politically the EU simply cannot afford for Ireland to collapse in the wake of Brexit. Meekel's "where there is a will, there is a way" would do the rest.

Calina

We already lost industry to Brexit. Several mushroom farms shut courtesy of of the sudden fall in sterling post referendum.

So we know already.

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

any of the above is equivalent of loading the Brexit Russian roulette gun with even more bullets and UK stating they going to pull the trigger if they don't get what they want.

It's worse - the gun is an automatic.

Nody

demfad wrote: »

We export a lot of food stuffs to the UK. The UK will still need it but with the massive delays at UK ports it may now spoil. Irish companies/farmers go out of business.

Any just in time business is in serious difficulty with the main route to EU being through the UK.

We can survive a hard Brexit. Disorderly hard Brexit would be catastrophic.
Neither UK nor Ireland can deal with no UK agreements with the rest of the world. It kills us too. Will the EU let Ireland collapse also?

You need to separate EU and UK; UK can lower their standards to let everything in if they wish to once they left EU (and they will or their stores will run empty). That means Irish export is going to be affected a great deal less than the UK export would be as UK will be forced to let things in or see food riots in the streets. Ireland and EU will not be able to do so which means Ireland and EU will sell more internally and import from already approved countries such as Argentina etc. instead.

Yes; all the trucks coming over the border from the UK will need to be checked for any UK deliverables; the same applies at every other point as well though such as Calais etc. as well. All people crossing will need to show ID or not allowed through and if you think the Irish border is bad think how Gibraltar border crossing will become. It will be bad yes but there will be a significant difference of bad between UK and territories and Ireland and EU.

jm08

Global Food Security Index was updated during the week.

Ireland is No. 1, US No. 2 & UK No. 3. This is what they have to say about the UK.

Brexit poses an extreme risk to the United Kingdom’s continued food security progress. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that personal incomes through 2018 will fall 6%, impacting food affordability, while the weaker sterling is pushing up import costs: a major concern given that the United Kingdom is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign food imports.3 About one quarter of the country’s food is imported from the EU4 and the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounted for over half of British farmers’ incomes in 2015.5 These generous subsidies will no longer exist once Brexit occurs. Though food self-sufficiency is an unrealistic goal, budgeting to account for the loss of CAP funding and attempting to maintain favourable trade relationships with the EU and other major agricultural exporters will be key to ensuring that the country is well fed.


Index here


http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Index

solodeogloria

Good evening!

demfad wrote: »

We can survive a hard Brexit. Disorderly hard Brexit would be catastrophic.
Neither UK nor Ireland can deal with no UK agreements with the rest of the world. It kills us too. Will the EU let Ireland collapse also?

Nobody wants a disorderly Brexit. The UK is keen to have the best possible terms with the EU after Brexit. It just depends on whether or not the EU is willing to reciprocate this.

Your question at the end is a poignant one.

demfad wrote: »

This again. The UK has chosen to remove itself from the EU therefore the EU's external border is now between the ROI and NI. The single market is a defensive market and the EU can't allow it to be breached.

The UK has stated it wants a 'frictionless border'.
It is up to the UK to suggest ways that allow the EU NOT to police it's border.
This means there MUST be regulatory equivalence between ROI and NI.

For that to happen you either have regulatory equivalence between UK as a whole and EU or between NI and EU. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY.

As the UK itself has ruled out the UK remaining in either the Customs Union or the Single market this means that the ONLY OPTION is that NI remains inside.

Perhaps you can come up with a feasable imaginative alternative?
Because in 18 months the British have come up with none .

Your repetition of "only option", "there is no other way" and "must" in capitals isn't necessarily true.

It is only true if the EU aren't willing to be flexible to provide a solution that works given the situation that is presented before us.

The UK wants to stay in the customs union and the single market for a transitional period. The UK naturally would aim for a bespoke arrangement following this ideally.

The UK doesn't want a no deal Brexit, but if the EU aren't willing to be reasonable then that is obviously what will happen.

BBC Question Time in Wolverhampton on Thursday was quite an interesting barometer of public opinion in the Black Country. Well worth a watch. It'll also be interesting to see Stockport and Belfast over the next two weeks.

Edit: rephrased what I meant.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Zubeneschamali

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK will stay in the customs union and the single market for a transitional period, but after that it will be out.

That isn't a no deal Brexit, that is the EU doing you a favour for no damn reason Brexit.

No deal Brexit means you are out in the wonderful new world of challenge and opportunity in March 2019. Tick tock.

Gerry T

Panrich wrote:

You could be right. I'm not sure if this has been posted here before (it's from March), but it outlines that the EU should offer the UK a very bad deal and that the UK should accept it unless it's worse than no deal which is unlikely.

The EU has no intention of shooting itself. The UK will get a good deal. A good deal compared to other countries the EU trades with. So have a look at that league table and see where the UK sits and that will give you a good idea of what's possible.
The EU on the other hand won't give the UK what it's looking for, on essence being a EU member (free trade) and not being a member (no free movement of people, no ECJ). Or do you think that's "a rat"
First figure out the breakup, then after that's agreed figure out any future trade agreement. This is the plan the UK agreed, but it's not doing anything other than bull**** one liners. If this continues the EU should walk away from talks and close the Brexit breakup in court.

Calina

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Nobody wants a disorderly Brexit. The UK is keen to have the best possible terms with the EU after Brexit. It just depends on whether or not the EU is willing to reciprocate this.

The UK has the best possible terms by being a member of the EU. So if it does not want to be a member of the EU, it does not want the best possible terms. Brexit by definition means worse terms than best.

In addition, the comments variously of May, Johnson, Davis and Fox with veiled threats about being Singapore, limiting access to security info and the EU going whistle, demonstrates that some people have, at various times, demonstrated a desire for a disorderly Brexit. There has been a marked lack of consistency in the UK's understanding of what it is about here.

You keep on demanding that the EU bend over and give Britain what it wants. You call that being flexible. It demonstrates a complete lack of understanding what is going on here. The EU's offer for citizens exceeds the UK's offer by some distance. In the context of the Home Office sending out letters to EU citizens telling them to leave the country and refusing PR for others, I fully understand why ECJ protection is required. The Home Office doesn't obey court orders when it feels like ignoring them. As such, the British court system can be perceived to be unreliable here, regardless of how good the judges are. The UK is unable to even negotiate a methodology for calculating the outstanding liabilities, deciding, instead, to toss round figures out as and when it suits. You do this too with your red line "I can accept" whatever amount it was you thought you'd have the liberty to accept or reject. As for your views on what should happen with the border in Ireland, I've already made it clear I think you care more for the UK's interests than you do for Ireland's interests.

You're demanding flexibility from the EU. I'd like to see some competence from the UK. We'd get further faster and you might get your flexibility. Right now, however, it's not happening because it seems to me the UK has still not understood that leaving the EU doesn't mean "we get rid of FOM and everything else stays the same". It doesn't.

Panrich

Gerry T wrote: »

The EU has no intention of shooting itself. The UK will get a good deal. A good deal compared to other countries the EU trades with. So have a look at that league table and see where the UK sits and that will give you a good idea of what's possible.
The EU on the other hand won't give the UK what it's looking for, on essence being a EU member (free trade) and not being a member (no free movement of people, no ECJ). Or do you think that's "a rat"
First figure out the breakup, then after that's agreed figure out any future trade agreement. This is the plan the UK agreed, but it's not doing anything other than bull**** one liners. If this continues the EU should walk away from talks and close the Brexit breakup in court.

You didn't even reference the link which contained the point I was trying to convey.

Game theory suggests that the UK will NOT get a good deal and it is also intuitive that the EU will not politically countenance it.

listermint

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!



Nobody wants a disorderly Brexit. The UK is keen to have the best possible terms with the EU after Brexit. It just depends on whether or not the EU is willing to reciprocate this.

Your question at the end is a poignant one.



Your repetition of "only option", "there is no other way" and "must" in capitals isn't necessarily true.

It is only true if the EU aren't willing to be flexible to provide a solution that works given the situation that is presented before us.

The UK wants to stay in the customs union and the single market for a transitional period. The UK naturally would aim for a bespoke arrangement following this ideally.

The UK doesn't want a no deal Brexit, but if the EU aren't willing to be reasonable then that is obviously what will happen.

BBC Question Time in Wolverhampton on Thursday was quite an interesting barometer of public opinion in the Black Country. Well worth a watch. It'll also be interesting to see Stockport and Belfast over the next two weeks.

Edit: rephrased what I meant.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Im still looking for your opinion on the bombardier issue.
You have yet to respond. It's pretty central to your assertion of the UK being a stake holder on the world trade stage and how everything will be rosy in trade terms post Brexit.

Can you give a response on the question I'm fully away your purposefully skipped over it and disappeared for a few days when this news came out.

Capt'n Midnight

solodeogloria wrote: »

A solution on the border will require flexibility from both the UK and the European Union.

flexibility ?

You can make €2,000 by driving a coal truck across the border today because the carbon tax difference. If the UK is no longer in the EU it's something we'd like to block. NI gross fuel imports fell despite an increase in car numbers once petrol and diesel got cheaper down here.

Fuel smuggling in both directions alone would be a billion euro business.
Never mind the dodgy labelling of Chinese imports and chlorinated chicken and the whole BSE bogeyman.

There's a border crossing every 2Km , that's a lot of customs officials to man it 24/7.


Flexibility like the Norway/Sweden model allows a law-enforcement and customs check zone 15km on either side of the border, allowing police from both
territories operate in the border regions.

Anyone suggesting Irish Revenue Officers could operate in the Bogside or Mrs Windsor's Customs Officials in Muirhevnamor clearly doesn't understand the reality of the situation.

Gerry T

Panrich wrote:

You didn't even reference the link which contained the point I was trying to convey.

Panrich wrote:

Game theory suggests that the UK will NOT get a good deal and it is also intuitive that the EU will not politically countenance it.

Operating on my ph. Didn't mean to chop it, we are in agreement in some parts. I don't think that the EU is going out of its way to push the UK into a hard Brexit. But I do think that the deal the UK will get is going to be far short of their expectations. But it's in the EUs interest to export into the uk, which will mean negioations will happen. But as for these past months I don't see that as a negotiation but more a agreement on separation. The UK still don't want to do that without knowing what form the trade deal will be, until they have a mind shift, which theresa may seems to be realising, hard Brexit is becoming a possibility.
As for the 2yr extension, that will never happen without the separation agreed and payments settled

Capt'n Midnight

Just a reminder of this https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-UKs-rating-to-Aa2-changes-outlook-to-stable--PR_372649

("Moody's") has today downgraded the United Kingdom's long-term issuer rating to Aa2 from Aa1 and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The UK's senior unsecured bond rating was also downgraded to Aa2 from Aa1.

Even with the risk of Brexit our rating continues to improve from the bad days.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Irelands-rating-to-A2-changes-outlook-to-stable--PR_372429

Also UK visitors to here drop, presumably because of sterling but overall visitor numbers are up. I'd see that as a sign that the UK is falling behind , already.

steddyeddy

The UK might want the bsst possible terms in Brexit, but it's not prepared to offer the best or even decent terms. That's an OK position if both trading powers are equal, but they're not. The UK is the rule taker here.

Nody

Boris "I can't stop myself from acting as a spoiled child and lie" Johnson has stated his 4 red lines in the Sun making possibly another push for Tory leadership or simply trying to reinforce his cards for the next government:

1. The transition period post-Brexit must be a maximum of 2yrs.. & not a second more
2. UK must refuse to accept new EU or ECJ rulings during transition
3. No payments for single market access when transition ends
4. UK must not agree to shadow EU rules to gain access to market

The problem of course is point 2 makes point 1 impossible but since this is Boris "I eat cake and have it" Johnson who likes to repeat known lies (such as the 350 million to EU etc.) that's not to be unexpected; Boris never expects to actually be held accountable after all. Rather his job is to be the plucky spirit of Brexiteers in the government and hoping his pitch will keep him in the good graces of the powers to be to get another cabinet role once May is out.

Jim2007

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Labour would seek to remain in the Single Market, a much easier thing to negotiate. The solution is to get the Tories out.

How is it easier to negotiate to stay in the single market? The market requires acceptance of the four principles and is treaty bound. There is no provision for a non member to have full access on any other terms. And what would be the motivation for the EU to do for one third country only to have others to demand the same. I expect the EU response will be - reapply for EU membership accept all the terms and hope none of the 27 object or apply for EFTA/EEA membership and hope that Norway does not veto it.

The EU have said that there never will be another Swiss deal because it is too complex to administer on a daily basis. Next year new negotiations will take place and the expected outcome is that Switzerland will accept that EU directives will automatically become law as is the case with member states and in return the Swiss will gain full market access for financial services.

The only motivation for the EU in doing the original deal and continuing it is that Switzerland controls all the major north-south routes of EU and any friction there can have major implications for industry.

Jim2007

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also UK visitors to here drop, presumably because of sterling but overall visitor numbers are up. I'd see that as a sign that the UK is falling behind , already.

What surprised me here is the attitude to the U.K. as a travel destination - it has become negative due to all the reporting of racist attacks. It used to be the tradion that final year students in the local school used to go to the U.K. for two weeks to improve their English, but this year there have been so many objections from parents that it has been decided to find a new destination in Ireland!

solodeogloria

Jim2007 wrote: »

What surprised me here is the attitude to the U.K. as a travel destination - it has become negative due to all the reporting of racist attacks. It used to be the tradion that final year students in the local school used to go to the U.K. for two weeks to improve their English, but this year there have been so many objections from parents that it has been decided to find a new destination in Ireland!

Good morning!

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris

Actually, you're both right to some extent. According to this year's tourism rates (2017, so not a whole year yet), students specifically (EFL, for instance) are down 8% and up 10% for Ireland, but overall visiting tourism continues to lurk upwards, encouraged by a low sterling (quote - "For every 1% decrease in the cost of visiting the UK, the UK’s inbound tourism earnings increase by 1.3%" - bottom of page 4)

Where a problem almost certainly will arise, according to that same stats sheet is that tourism is increasing, it is the UK's third-largest sector and is responsible as a sector for 9.15% of the UK's employment -but- there is a major issue approaching with the need for EU workers with the right soft-skills. So until March 2019, under current restrictions, planned restrictions and other confusion, may be as good as it gets.

http://www.tourismalliance.com/downloads/TA_395_420.pdf

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Any thoughts on the news that the EU accounts for a little more than half of UK exports when you discount gold from the figures? Does that sway your opinion in any way?

murphaph

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Only a couple of the regular posters here would be what I would clearly identify as republicans who basically never did have any soft spot for England. But most I dare say would be like me who previously thought we could get on well with our nearest neighbour and bury the past where it belongs.

The UK has pulled the rug out from all that. I am now quite distrustful of the UK as a neighbour and make no bones about that.

You clearly love the place to bits. That's your prerogative. I would now rather focus on improving our partnerships in the European Union. The UK did not consider Ireland for a sodding nanosecond before pressing the button. It should not surprise you that there is some animosity towards the UK over Brexit.

Panrich

Nody wrote: »

Boris "I can't stop myself from acting as a spoiled child and lie" Johnson has stated his 4 red lines in the Sun making possibly another push for Tory leadership or simply trying to reinforce his cards for the next government:
The problem of course is point 2 makes point 1 impossible but since this is Boris "I eat cake and have it" Johnson who likes to repeat known lies (such as the 350 million to EU etc.) that's not to be unexpected; Boris never expects to actually be held accountable after all. Rather his job is to be the plucky spirit of Brexiteers in the government and hoping his pitch will keep him in the good graces of the powers to be to get another cabinet role once May is out.

I think history will judge Johnson very harshly and rightly so. The British public have been sold a pup and his latest rants are getting more desperate by the day. As you say, some of those 4 points are contradictory and are are almost infantile in their niaivity.

Samaris

I'm fond of England, I think her current government is disgraceful, ignorant, foolish, short-sighted, utterly disrespectful of their neighbours and incompetent.

Like any other country, they have a certain following amongst the population who are exactly that too (and no, that is not all leave-voters, just the ones that actually match that description). Unfortunately, those are the loudest and the side that the world is seeing to represent the country, and that will take some healing (much like the world view of the United States is the Trumpist party and the parts of their base that match them).

Both the UK and the US have taken a sledgehammer to their reputations, which is a shame that will take some time to move away from once both countries start acting like grown ups again. (Whatever they actually decide to do, their manner in doing it needs some maturity, both US and UK.)

Also, what in god's name is Johnson playing at and why has he not yet been fired from a cannon? Boris Johnson has less chance of the PMship than a pig has of competing in the Olympic iceskating. He's just embarrassing his country by now.

murphaph

Samaris wrote: »

I'm fond of England, I think her current government is disgraceful, ignorant, foolish, short-sighted, utterly disrespectful of their neighbours and incompetent.

Like any other country, they have a certain following amongst the population who are exactly that too (and no, that is not all leave-voters, just the ones that actually match that description). Unfortunately, those are the loudest and the side that the world is seeing to represent the country, and that will take some healing (much like the world view of the United States is the Trumpist party and the parts of their base that match them).

Both the UK and the US have taken a sledgehammer to their reputations, which is a shame that will take some time to move away from once both countries start acting like grown ups again. (Whatever they actually decide to do, their manner in doing it needs some maturity, both US and UK.)

Also, what in god's name is Johnson playing at and why has he not yet been fired from a cannon? Boris Johnson has less chance of the PMship than a pig has of competing in the Olympic iceskating. He's just embarrassing his country by now.

Johnson is trying to get fired so he can heckle from the backbenches rather than be in the frontline as Brexit implodes. He knows he can't square these circles. He wants somebody else holding the baby when it all goes pear shaped.

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

Johnson is trying to get fired so he can heckle from the backbenches rather than be in the frontline as Brexit implodes. He knows he can't square these circles. He wants somebody else holding the baby when it all goes pear shaped.

His ability to cause chaos is impressive. He is breaking all the rules he can to get fired now, but Theresa May wouldn't want him to miss the Brexit party. So either she breaks the rules and ignore his indiscretions and allow him to share the Brexit outcome, or she gives him what he wants. It is now a car crash inside a car crash.

Samaris

If that's the case (and yeah, it about matches what's been going on), all I can say is "oh dear god will they all grow the hell up"

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

Only a couple of the regular posters here would be what I would clearly identify as republicans who basically never did have any soft spot for England. But most I dare say would be like me who previously thought we could get on well with our nearest neighbour and bury the past where it belongs.

The UK has pulled the rug out from all that. I am now quite distrustful of the UK as a neighbour and make no bones about that.

You clearly love the place to bits. That's your prerogative. I would now rather focus on improving our partnerships in the European Union. The UK did not consider Ireland for a sodding nanosecond before pressing the button. It should not surprise you that there is some animosity towards the UK over Brexit.

Good morning!

I don't agree that the peace process is predicated on the EU. I think this is manipulative.

Of course I love the UK to bits. Many of the people I care about the most live here. I don't have massive national sentiment to anything. I think it's a great country to live in and it's a place with great opportunity. Despite the tosh from Jim2007 implying that it is heaving with racists I've seen very little evidence of this in practice.

The UK has made a decision in respect to leaving a bloc that wasn't working for it. There's no reason for animosity. People just need to grow up and accept the self-determination of others. That's what this is essentially about. Regaining control at a national level.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris

Don't the self-determiners have to grow up and accept that when their decisions affect others, said others get a say, especially when it comes to negotiating the exit from a co-operative bloc?

The British are not the only ones affected by Brexit and full half of their issues in negotiating is that they cannot seem to accept this. The UK is not the only thing that matters in all this.

To listen to the negotiators and their supporters, you'd think it was up to Britain to choose from a menu rather than discuss and negotiate with other countries how to split the food. No, it's not all about the UK, and it's about time the UK accepted that.

Water John

For all Boris watchers, a docu on Channel 4 tomorrow night.
Boris starts reciting Kypling in a Buddist Temple in Myanmar. Ambassador has to stop the fool.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

This should be priceless. Hopes it sinks him.

Gerry T

But it was working for it, and the UK can't have full control if it makes trade deals. It prob has as much control as it's ever going to have

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

I don't agree that the peace process is predicated on the EU. I think this is manipulative.

Do you honestly think nationalist can trust the UK government or courts. They couldn't trust them up to the 70s for sure. The EU has delivered more rights and protections to the minority in the north than the UK courts ever did. As for the government they signed an international agreement to be a honest broker but now depend on the DUP for power.

steddyeddy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you honestly think nationalist can trust the UK government or courts. They couldn't trust them up to the 70s for sure. The EU has delivered more rights and protections to the minority in the north than the UK courts ever did. As for the government they signed an international agreement to be a honest broker but now depend on the DUP for power.

The Tory party showed their true colors in relation to the peace process when they aligned with the DUP. In May's own words she said she'll never be neutral in relation to Northern Ireland. In other words not respectful of a shared future in Northern Ireland or the Good Friday agreement. We also seen Boris sing a offensive colonial song in a Buddhist temple.

The Tory party are basically little Englanders.

Jim2007

Samaris wrote: »

Don't the self-determiners have to grow up and accept that when their decisions affect others, said others get a say, especially when it comes to negotiating the exit from a co-operative bloc?

That is thing, we keep hearing about how we have to accept their decision to leave, only to hear in the next breath how we must give them some special conditions before they leave... they need to accept their own decision and get on with it.

I suspect that until it actually starts to happen, there will be little movement on the U.K. side. The first little ripple will be felt towards the end of March next year when UK citizens no longer qualify for the 12 month renewable work/resident permits in EEA/CH states, that will be followed by the open skies issues in October, then on the run up there will be travel issues - airline and ferries can't accept bookings to land passengers in the Schengen Area if they don't have visa free travel rights or hold the required visa.

And discussions on this stuff has not kicked off yet. I just wonder how long it will be allowed to continue and who will be the one to bring back the bad news.

steddyeddy

Water John wrote: »

For all Boris watchers, a docu on Channel 4 tomorrow night.
Boris starts reciting Kypling in a Buddist Temple in Myanmar. Ambassador has to stop the fool.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

This should be priceless. Hopes it sinks him.

He was accurately described as a man educated beyond his intelligence and a spoiled child. It won't sink him. The Tory voters probrably have the same delusions of what the empire was like.

Capt'n Midnight

Samaris wrote: »

Actually, you're both right to some extent. According to this year's tourism rates (2017, so not a whole year yet), students specifically (EFL, for instance) are down 8% and up 10% for Ireland, but overall visiting tourism continues to lurk upwards, encouraged by a low sterling (quote - "For every 1% decrease in the cost of visiting the UK, the UK’s inbound tourism earnings increase by 1.3%" - bottom of page 4)

It should be noted that excluding the UK our tourist numbers jumped quite a bit.

The UK is under performing , even with the huge drop in Sterling.