Brexit discussion thread II

The Rape of Lucretia

Boris is just a public school boy out on a wizard wheeze of a jolly good time in the whole politics thing.
Living out a wannabe Churchill fantasy, with a small fraction of the talent.
Entitlement is never knowing the limit of its own ability.

steddyeddy

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Boris is just a public school boy out on a wizard wheeze of a jolly good time in the whole politics thing.
Living out a wannabe Churchill fantasy, with a small fraction of the talent.
Entitlement is never knowing the limit of its own ability.

The jolly good time at feeding his ego has resulted in Brexit. It won't be the cream (rich and thick) of Eton that suffers. It will be hard working people.

Water John

There is a cold hard underside to Boris. Don't be fooled by the bumbling and the carefully tousled hair.
Not everybody loves Boris and he isn't that nice.

steddyeddy

Water John wrote: »

There is a cold hard underside to Boris. Don't be fooled by the bumbling and the carefully tousled hair.
Not everybody loves Boris and he isn't that nice.

Oh indeed. Pure malice masked by bumbling.

Junkyard Tom

BoJo's political ambition completely disregards the consequences for Britain and the British people. BoJo is a flip-flopping egocentric careerist.

Enzokk

In case anyone was still thinking that the government was out of touch, lets have the Secretary of State for Health going to a drink tank in partnership with Boeing at the Conservative conference.

Jeremy Hunt slammed for going to a Boeing “Drink Tank” at conference while company threatens 4,500 UK jobs

Tone deaf doesn't really describe those in charge in the UK.

Zubeneschamali

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Entitlement is never knowing the limit of its own ability.

Boris was fired from his first press job at The Times for making up a quote and attributing it to a named source to spice up a story.

Any normal person would never have worked in the media again, but hey, old boys will be boys.

demfad

The Sunday Times and Sun interviews with Boris indicate as far as I am concerned that he is a Murdoch asset like Gove.

May was asked about his red line on accepting new EU regulations during the transition period. She was vague indicating she may be rowing back on her Florence speech.

This would mean that the a transition deal would not be available to the UK (Boris position not legally possible) and the UK will crash out in 2019.

The disaster capitalists will feast on the carcass and Murdoch's men will get him the deal/influence he wishes.

As far as Ireland is concerned. We need to start preparing for the hardest possible messy Brexit. That means building infrastructure on the border which will be the new external border of the EU (single market). We also will need infrastructure/personnel in ports, particularly Dublin, for the massive delays due to teh new tarriff barriers and particularly non-tarriff barriers.

murphaph

Ireland can't police the border without massive financial assistance from the rest of the EU. It's a mammoth task, even if half the crossings were reduced to pedestrian only.

We can't rely on shipping anything through the UK post messy Brexit. We'd need to quickly get a bunch of ferries leased to bypass them.

I hope the Irish government and EU 27 are at least sketching out what needs to be in place on Brexit day in the event of a chaotic exit.

Samaris

What actually happens if a hard and visible border is required? Some of it I can see - issues with smuggling, issues with it being highly porous, will there need to be a path along the border through peoples fields and properties to patrol the thing effectively, tailbacks and checks and a lot of annoyed people. Does anyone know what the actual likelihood is of violence re-erupting? It seems to be an assumed thing and maybe it is, but I am curious about this point.

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

Ireland can't police the border without massive financial assistance from the rest of the EU. It's a mammoth task, even if half the crossings were reduced to pedestrian only.

We can't rely on shipping anything through the UK post messy Brexit. We'd need to quickly get a bunch of ferries leased to bypass them.

I hope the Irish government and EU 27 are at least sketching out what needs to be in place on Brexit day in the event of a chaotic exit.

Good afternoon!

Alternatively the EU could be reasonable and accept some of Britain's proposals and act in the interests of member states including Ireland.

They could accept that much of the shortfall in EU funding post-Brexit could be made up through offering transitional terms to the UK.

They could accept that giving direct effect to allow EU citizens to appeal any parliamentary decision to tinker would allow for the UK courts to rule on issues with citizens rights.

They could accept proposals which would provide a customs partnership in respect to the border.

If the EU was reasonable we could begin to see real solutions.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Alternatively the EU could be reasonable and accept some of Britain's proposals and act in the interests of member states including Ireland.

Okay, so no more compromise, the EU should just accept Britain's...uhm...proposals. Which was apparently made up of "we could use machines to record stuff and that's about it.

solodeogloria wrote: »

They could accept that much of the shortfall in EU funding post-Brexit could be made up through offering transitional terms to the UK.

Ah, a free transition period to account for the money that Britain owes through this budgetary period without Britain having to pay for what it owes through this budgetary period (or they don't pay for a transition period. Either way, benefits for nothing, yeah, I see that being accepted as a reasonable proposal.

solodeogloria wrote: »

They could accept that giving direct effect to allow EU citizens to appeal any parliamentary decision to tinker would allow for the UK courts to rule on issues with citizens rights.

Not actually sure what you're proposing here. What?

solodeogloria wrote: »

They could accept proposals which would provide a customs partnership in respect to the border.

This is back to that "uhm, record stuff!" suggestion, yeah?

solodeogloria wrote: »

If the EU was reasonable we could begin to see real solutions.

If the UK would get its act together, we could begin to see real solutions. This is the UK's mess. The EU is listening, but no, the UK are not going to get ridiculous demands that benefit the UK to the loss of the other 27 countries just because the UK wants it and will kick and scream if they don't get it (which is about the outer limit of their current negotiating power).

Well, so far you have not produced any "reasonable" alternatives. Even your selection from before (which apparently included the massive concession of paying for a transition period..) actually didn't answer the question. You gave several stances with no recourse to what the original stances were or why these were concessions.

The more you talk about it, the less convincing is the argument that it's all the EU's fault. I was willing to give you the ear, but honestly, it's you versus all the evidence to the contrary.

Some progress on citizens rights, so that's something.

Calina

Solo, do you actually understand the problem with the border is?

The UK wants the EU to believe that the UK regulatorily identical to the EU while simultaneously retaining the right to cut out a load of regulations in order to sign other trade deals?

Did you not understand the brouha about chlorinated chicken?

If the UK is changing regs to suit itself, the border and transit of goods jas to be policed. The UK's contributions have been 'turn a blind eye to SMEs' and or vapour ware with drones and blue sky thinking.

You might call this reasonable. I call it delusional. The most reasonable solution is to stay in the SM.

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

Ireland can't police the border without massive financial assistance from the rest of the EU. It's a mammoth task, even if half the crossings were reduced to pedestrian only.

I'd expect we'll do it the same as the Swiss/EU borders are done. We're not interested in the people or the small amounts they carry across the border. So we would only control the main roads in any case.

murphaph wrote: »

We can't rely on shipping anything through the UK post messy Brexit. We'd need to quickly get a bunch of ferries leased to bypass them.

Again, I'd expect it would work the same as Switzerland: Containers are sealed by EU customs at the borders with German, France and Austria and are checked by EU customs on entry into Italy, if seals are broke there is a problem. It is not perfect, but the UK will need to play ball unless the want to loose what ever trade the still have with the EU.

murphaph wrote: »

I hope the Irish government and EU 27 are at least sketching out what needs to be in place on Brexit day in the event of a chaotic exit.

- The grid is being hooked up to France: Connecting Ireland & France to the world

- I can't find the link at the moment, but I believe I read somewhere of EU funding for the southern ports and Roscof to be upgraded.

solodeogloria

Calina wrote: »

Solo, do you actually understand the problem with the border is?

The UK wants the EU to believe that the UK regulatorily identical to the EU while simultaneously retaining the right to cut out a load of regulations in order to sign other trade deals?

Did you not understand the brouha about chlorinated chicken?

If the UK is changing regs to suit itself, the border and transit of goods jas to be policed. The UK's contributions have been 'turn a blind eye to SMEs' and or vapour ware with drones and blue sky thinking.

You might call this reasonable. I call it delusional. The most reasonable solution is to stay in the SM.

Good afternoon!

According to the EU this discussion is premature. We're not there yet unless the EU wants to discuss trade and customs terms.

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

LeinsterDub

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

According to the EU this discussion is premature. We're not there yet unless the EU wants to discuss trade and customs terms.

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Can you explain to us all why the EU should abandon the timetable them and the UK agreed too?

Lemming

solodeogloria wrote: »

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

So, expecting outstanding committments/obligations to be ironed out before discussing what a future relationship might look like is "unreasonable"? There's only one word to describe that view-point ...


...
...
... unreasonable.

murphaph

Jim2007 wrote: »

I'd expect we'll do it the same as the Swiss/EU borders are done. We're not interested in the people or the small amounts they carry across the border. So we would only control the main roads in any case.



Again, I'd expect it would work the same as Switzerland: Containers are sealed by EU customs at the borders with German, France and Austria and are checked by EU customs on entry into Italy, if seals are broke there is a problem. It is not perfect, but the UK will need to play ball unless the want to loose what ever trade the still have with the EU.

Yeah but CH is in the single market to all intents and purposes. They have regulatory equivalence for foodstuffs. The UK is talking about tearing up regulations and doing a solo run. The border is then one of regulation, which is a much bigger deal than a customs border.

I wouldn't trust the UK as far as I could throw them now. The whole thing is crazy so I wouldn't rule out a blockade on freight through the UK land bridge, perhaps just a go slow on checking such vehicles.

We have to make proper contingency plans for the messiest of departures now IMO. The UK is not a serious negotiation partner at all.

Solo just reiterates the waffle from the Tories. Completely devoid of reality.

Gerry T

The UK wrote the book on how countries leave the EU, they called it A50. Now their leaving they want to ignore it.
First agree existing obligations and commitments. Then maybe trade will be agreed. But my guess is the UK will renage on its financial commitments, it's their form to not keep promises. "Never trust a rabied dog or an english man"

Zubeneschamali

solodeogloria wrote: »

If the EU was reasonable we could begin to see real solutions.

Actually, I think the reverse is true. If the EU becomes less reasonable, if they start threatening the UK, then the UK side might start realizing that this is serious.

Tell them no to their request for a transitional period and threaten to fight their WTO status from March 2019 unless they deal with the agreed 3 issues by Christmas.

Jim2007

solodeogloria wrote: »

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

This is not kindergarten, the UK has made commitments and you can absolutely count on the EU states requiring them to honour those commitments before we move on. And that position is not going to change.

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

Yeah but CH is in the single market to all intents and purposes.

No it is not the case. Switzerland as limited access to the single market, but it is not in the customs union - tariffs and taxes do apply to some goods.

demfad

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

According to the EU this discussion is premature. We're not there yet unless the EU wants to discuss trade and customs terms.

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The UK has given it's red lines: Out of SM, out of Customs Union, NO ECJ oversight, UK leaves all as one.

Based on the UKs own red lines there has to be a hard border and the catastrophe that means for this Island.

steddyeddy

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Alternatively the EU could be reasonable and accept some of Britain's proposals and act in the interests of member states including Ireland.

Alternatively the UK could be more reasonable.

They could accept that much of the shortfall in EU funding post-Brexit could be made up through offering transitional terms to the UK.

Or the UK could pay what is owed or at least offer a rationale for why they think they shouldn't pay X amount.

They could accept proposals which would provide a customs partnership in respect to the border.

Or the UK could become realistic and educated about international trade.

If the EU was reasonable we could begin to see real solutions.

If the UK was reasonable we would see solutions. Now we'll just see a significantly worse of UK.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

mountaintop

I see solo is still delusional, and he's not even British! Wait until post Brexit and the British might turn their attention to Paddy again. Oh, and the Catalan referendum yesterday is yet another precursor to the eventual breakup of the UK which Brexit will only hasten.

Samaris

I'm relieved that work is in progress to hook up Ireland to the continent directly, even if just telecommunications for now. Ireland is horrendously dependant on the UK for trade routes, for energy importing, for communication, etcetera. We really, really cannot rely on the UK getting its act together, going around is better for everyone involved in the long run. And at this rate, probably the short and medium run too.

ambro25

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Actually, I think the reverse is true. If the EU becomes less reasonable, if they start threatening the UK, then the UK side might start realizing that this is serious.

Tell them no to their request for a transitional period and threaten to fight their WTO status from March 2019 unless they deal with the agreed 3 issues by Christmas.

I was sooo tempted to post "now you're talking"...

...but no, because that would effectively be both the EU27 lowering itself to the standard of the Tories, and the unreasonable thing do in the eyes of that portion of the UK, the EU27 and the international community which sees the EU as a entity with a democratic deficit.

Silence is gold, so is patience: just let the UK continue to hoist itself ever higher on its own petard, all by its sovereign self

murphaph

Jim2007 wrote: »

No it is not the case. Switzerland as limited access to the single market, but it is not in the customs union - tariffs and taxes do apply to some goods.

I know it's not in the SM or CU but it accepts that it must follow the SM rules on food stuffs, so Swiss food does not need to be inspected for compliance with food safety standards. UK food would need such inspection (every truck) following a chaotic Brexit.

This is the whole point really. The tariffs are the secondary concern in many respects. It's the fact that different regulatory regimes will exist either side of the Irish border following a no deal Brexit.

That's why border controls on the Irish border would need to be an order of magnitude more rigorous than the EU-CH border.

Water John

I don't think Ireland should be in any hurry to set up borders, anywhere.
We don't want them. That's our clear message.

demfad

Water John wrote: »

I don't think Ireland should be in any hurry to set up borders, anywhere.
We don't want them. That's our clear message.

We don't want a hard Brexit. If there is a hard Brexit we DO want adequate infrastructure and personnel in place to deal with it. Otherwise the UK can hold us to hostage knowing that a hard Brexit will stop trade at the border for months until such time as we (belatedly) put the infrastructure there.
And of course the massive fallout from the resultant chaos for our economy.

Jim2007

murphaph wrote: »

That's why border controls on the Irish border would need to be an order of magnitude more rigorous than the EU-CH border.

I don't think so, because in the case of the EU/CH border, you have to identify three categories: goods that can flow freely, goods that must be inspected and tariffs applied and goods that are just in transit through Switzerland to another part of the EU. Remember that most north/south goods end up going through Switzerland, so there is a very big volume.

Enzokk

Calina wrote: »

Solo, do you actually understand the problem with the border is?

The UK wants the EU to believe that the UK regulatorily identical to the EU while simultaneously retaining the right to cut out a load of regulations in order to sign other trade deals?

Did you not understand the brouha about chlorinated chicken?

If the UK is changing regs to suit itself, the border and transit of goods jas to be policed. The UK's contributions have been 'turn a blind eye to SMEs' and or vapour ware with drones and blue sky thinking.

You might call this reasonable. I call it delusional. The most reasonable solution is to stay in the SM.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

According to the EU this discussion is premature. We're not there yet unless the EU wants to discuss trade and customs terms.

At present it is blocking discussion of trade terms unreasonably.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I am including the post you are replying to here. That is extremely childish of you to reply like this. The question wasn't the UK position on the border it was whether you understood the problems that there will be with a border.

The fact that you replied like that shows you aren't really interested in debate or to learn anything here, even if it is just for yourself as we aren't going to sway the negotiations one way or another. We are mainly commenting on the progress of the talks and how each of us see it and maybe learn something new in the process.

But that you don't want to engage in a direct question on how you see the border working just makes it hard for anyone to reply to you.

So I will ask the questions again, do you understand the complexities of the border?

Do you understand that the UK cannot expect to have an open border with the EU when they have different standards than the EU?

Do you understand that if the UK wants to import chlorinated chicken from the US it cannot have a open border as the EU doesn't allow this?

murphaph

Water John wrote: »

I don't think Ireland should be in any hurry to set up borders, anywhere.
We don't want them. That's our clear message.

We don't want them but we're not children. We understand that it's a choice between membership of the single market or not. It's just as much our responsibility to protect the integrity of the single market as our other EU partners. If the UK crashes out, we either police the external frontier or we will find our own exports to the rest of the single market will face inspections as if they came from the UK itself.

flutered

murphaph wrote: »

We don't want them but we're not children. We understand that it's a choice between membership of the single market or not. It's just as much our responsibility to protect the integrity of the single market as our other EU partners. If the UK crashes out, we either police the external frontier or we will find our own exports to the rest of the single market will face inspections as if they came from the UK itself.

will the eu allow your worst fears to happen?

murphaph

flutered wrote: »

will the eu allow your worst fears to happen?

These aren't my worst fears. There are far worse things in the world than the unfortunate requirement to police the border with NI.

I don't see how the EU would be "letting it happen" however. If one big baby of a country decides to throw its toys out of the pram there's not much we or the rest of the EU can do about it. The single market doesn't work with a great big hole in the external frontier. Simple as that.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

The single market doesn't work with a great big hole in the external frontier. Simple as that.

And just watch how that will be clamped firmly shut.

mickoneill31

flutered wrote: »

will the eu allow your worst fears to happen?

What are the options?
If the UK crashes out what should be done with the border?

LeinsterDub

EU's Brexit NIGHTMARE: Euro firms have £20TRN of contracts under threat if UK walks away
BANKS are facing seriously complex talks to in order to protect £20trillion worth of crucial financial contracts once Britain leaves the European Union.

When one of the ultimate pro brexit anti eu papers are running a story like this you know the UK is in trouble. Even the most hardened brexit supporter should see the writing on the wall

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/861264/EU-Brexit-news-UK-economy-financial-contract-risk-derivative-Bank-of-England-Mark-Carney

blanch152

LeinsterDub wrote: »

When one of the ultimate pro brexit anti eu papers are running a story like this you know the UK is in trouble. Even the most hardened brexit supporter should see the writing on the wall

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/861264/EU-Brexit-news-UK-economy-financial-contract-risk-derivative-Bank-of-England-Mark-Carney

That article reminds me of the famous headline: "Fog in the Channel - Continent Cut Off"

Water John

Yeah the pro Brexit MP idiot's comment is priceless. A real wake up call from Carney.

Jim2007

LeinsterDub wrote: »

When one of the ultimate pro brexit anti eu papers are running a story like this you know the UK is in trouble. Even the most hardened brexit supporter should see the writing on the wall

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/861264/EU-Brexit-news-UK-economy-financial-contract-risk-derivative-Bank-of-England-Mark-Carney

But this is exactly the stuff the EU wants highly regulated, taxed to build up a bailout fund and preferably leave the UK taxpayer on the hook for it! So there is not chance of a deal that would not result EU courts and regulators having jurisdiction.

steddyeddy

Jacob Rees Mogg, has suggested that the UK have to do nothing in relation to the Irish border.

“We won’t have to,” he told a ConservativeHome event. “I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-01/u-k-should-defy-demands-for-irish-brexit-border-lawmaker-says

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg, has suggested that the UK have to do nothing in relation to the Irish border.

“We won’t have to,” he told a ConservativeHome event. “I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-01/u-k-should-defy-demands-for-irish-brexit-border-lawmaker-says

That's Barnier put in his place then. Jacob Rees Mogg. A man of the people. Tally ho.

Water John

Mogg has such time for the British people that they can eat any ould tripe from any country and that is the logical result of not having an external border.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg, has suggested that the UK have to do nothing in relation to the Irish border.

“We won’t have to,” he told a ConservativeHome event. “I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-01/u-k-should-defy-demands-for-irish-brexit-border-lawmaker-says

Ah, the old if you ignore a problem it will go away. If he ignores the problem of the Irish border and Brexit then it will just not be an issue.

Samaris

steddyeddy wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg, has suggested that the UK have to do nothing in relation to the Irish border.

“We won’t have to,” he told a ConservativeHome event. “I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-01/u-k-should-defy-demands-for-irish-brexit-border-lawmaker-says

And that is why this man should not be prime minister of the country. He not only doesn't understand, he doesn't understand why anyone thinks he should understand the issue of a land border between his country and a neighbouring one when there is the possibility of very different standards between UK and EU Ireland and a deeply contentious history of said border.

A statesman, a statesman, my kingdom for a statesman. All Britain has at the moment is politicians and god knows, it's a pretty low caliber of politicians at that.

Nody

steddyeddy wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg, has suggested that the UK have to do nothing in relation to the Irish border.

“We won’t have to,” he told a ConservativeHome event. “I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-01/u-k-should-defy-demands-for-irish-brexit-border-lawmaker-says

Someone better explain to him how many billions the VAT scams alone would cost UK's treasury...

Then again he's against abortion in all cases but owns shares in a company selling abortion pills "because it follows local legislation". The man is a hypocrite of the first degree and being in UK that's saying something.

steddyeddy

Samaris wrote: »

And that is why this man should not be prime minister of the country. He not only doesn't understand, he doesn't understand why anyone thinks he should understand the issue of a land border between his country and a neighbouring one when there is the possibility of very different standards between UK and EU Ireland and a deeply contentious history of said border.

A statesman, a statesman, my kingdom for a statesman. All Britain has at the moment is politicians and god knows, it's a pretty low caliber of politicians at that.

I think Vince Cable is being the most honest with the British people right now.

murphaph

It's not even an option for the UK to turn an obvious blind eye to the border. WTO most favoured nation rules mean tariffs must be applied and if your country has an open border this is impossible to ensure unless you levy no tariffs on any country's goods!

Sam Russell

I think that the 2 Sisters Group scandal with the chicken (re)dating slaughter dates and putting returned product (from supermarkets) back into the production lines should sound alarm bells in the British body politic.

Now, we are worried about chlorinated chicken from the USA while the UK cannot even keep their eyes on EU food standards in their own factories. It was Channel 4 that uncovered this particular scandal.

The horse meat scandal was discovered here by our own surveillance system, and it was an organised crime involving many countries in Europe, not originating here in Ireland.

Talking of chlorinated chicken, there are two philosophies of tackling hygene in food production - the EU one and the US one. The EU insist that all production facilities are kept pathogen free at all times with proper oversight at all times, while the US system allows no particular oversight providing there is a clean up afterwards by dunking in a chlorine wash (and insisting it is up to the consumer to cook the product safely).

We need to begin looking at a closed border being necessary for NI because there is no way the UK will do anything to enforce it. We could not keep foot and mouth out, even though we had the full weight of the state enforcing it and the support of the NI devolved administration. What hope is there if the other side does not care?