Brexit discussion thread II

Enzokk

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

I guess the 4000 jobs in Northern Ireland counts towards the Canadian figures. Or the tax they pay goes straight to Canada.

listermint wrote: »

Enough with offloading the blame on this one.

The company is significant to the UK if the UK wielded any strength with the US these days if would not have happened and this would have been handled behind closed doors.

To keep saying is a US Canada problem is offloading the fact the UK has by its own hands diminished its own trading stature.

These are realities

Imagine the pressure the UK together with Canada could have put on the US if they didn't need to beg for a trade deal.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The realisation and fear was palpable on QT last night. As was who is going to ship the blame for landing northern Ireland in it.
Wait until it starts hitting farming.

The potential job losses for Northern Ireland is double that what Boeing has in the UK as a whole. Don't be fooled about the amount of money that Boeing provides to the UK either as they have a bigger range of aircraft that costs a lot more to build and buy than the C Series. So if Rolls Royce wins a contract for the 787 the cost to supply engines are worth almost as much per delivery as the CS100 would cost an airline (CS100 list price $76.5m, usually around 40-60% discount, cost per 787 engine is around $16m per engine).

So the figures are more impressive for Boeing when looking at the UK economy, but like most figures once you peel away at the layers you realise there is more to them than just the headline amounts.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

Bombardier is indeed a Canadian company. And, to add weight to Fred's point, what is causing the US to threaten punitive tariffs is subsidies provided to Bombardier by the Canadian authorities, not the UK authorities.

Northern Ireland is collateral damage in this particular spat. The spat is not happening because of Brexit; it would most likely have happened anyway.

Still, there are definitely Brexit-related lessons to be learned. The main one is that the "special relationship" is worth diddly-squat in trade matters. May has pointed to the damage that will be done to Northern Ireland, and has alternately pleaded with Mr Trump to intervene and threatened the UK's own retaliatory sanctions; so far she has bugger-all to show for her efforts. This undoubtedly prefigures the attitude the Trump administration will take when it comes to the wider question of negotiating a trade deal with the under-pressure UK. Bend over, Teresa, and brace yourself!

Would events have unfolded differently but for Brexit? Possibly. The issue would still have arisen, but if it was the EU, rather than the UK, pressing the US to moderate its stance, the US might pay more attention. Not that they have any particular affection for the EU or acknowledge any debt or obligation to it, but the EU is a much bigger trading partner, and has much more negotiating muscle. On the other hand, the US might not pay any more attention. A rational government would, but right now the US does not have a rational government.

Enzokk

Some amazing quotes from prominent Leavers that is showing up recently. First we have John Redmond who wants the Chancellor to get the Treasury to be more optimistic.

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/918403714041503752

"The Chancellor must get the Treasury to have more realistic, optimistic forecasts & to find the money for a successful economy post Brexit"

So either he believes there is money that has not been found and the treasury must use that, or failing that I guess it means raiding the public spending coffers again and let those that need help be damned.

Then we have Nigel Lawson who before the referendum said it would almost certain that a FTA with the EU will be signed as the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU.

Now it seems he is suggesting that a no-deal outcome was always the most likely to happen. Another lie to add to the multitude of other ones that the people fell for.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/918698664394080256

In any case, British growth is once again below inflation so it seems like a fall in real income is waiting for people once again.

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/918479724015480833

murphaph

The salient lesson to be learned from Bombardier is that the US is prepared to treat its next door neighbour harshly in trade matters. The UK will soon be in a position closer to Canada than where it sits today, ensconced in a union of 500 million of the richest people in the world.

The UK will, just like Canada, be the rule taker in any agreement with the US. That is not the case for the EU. That's what the UK is leaving. They seem unable to accept that times had even changed long before they joined the EEC, nevermind since then.

Samaris

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I think the main point to note, is that the Cornish being celts and there being somehow not English is something that exists mainly in the heads of Irish nationalists and their belief in the true Celtic gene and the oppression by the Saxon foe.

That’s the only reason it got raised on this thread, let’s be honest.

Anyway, good luck telling Jack Nowell he isn’t English.

I think the main point to note is that the original line was a joke, so there's really no need to invoke Saxon foes and Irish nationalism! It is merely a point of fact that there are specifically differing identity markers, including language, culture and even genetic markers (although in both Scotland and Cornwall, it is strongly mixed with Saxon). Whether people identify more strongly with Cornwall or with England (or indeed Scotland and England around the borders), or even just "British" is really up to them after that and nothing to do with Ireland or Irish nationalism at all. I have no idea who Jack Nowell is, but I'm certainly not going to argue with him that he's X or Y. But the Cork/Dublin bit is a ridiculous comparison.

However, since god knows what the next will be and I have no wish to get into the woes-of-Ireland argument (nor did I realise -Cornwall- would start one), I'm going back to Brexit now - seems safer!

murphaph

John Redwood's comments are particularly deluded. "just make it work somehow" is what he is essentially saying. He is such a vacuous man and always was. Nigel Lawson has been clearly shown here to be a liar. So many many lies told on the leave side. All swallowed hook, line and sinker by so many people. The tone is starting to shift now to one of distinct urgency, but the EU is rock like in its stability.

Fratton Fred

listermint wrote: »

Enough with offloading the blame on this one.

The company is significant to the UK if the UK wielded any strength with the US these days if would not have happened and this would have been handled behind closed doors.

To keep saying is a US Canada problem is offloading the fact the UK has by its own hands diminished its own trading stature.

These are realities

it isn't offloading blame, it is pointing out facts.

The penalties have been imposed on a Bombardier model imported in to the US from Canada, not the UK. The factories in NI are only making parts for the C Series and ship them to Canada.

The UK government should 100% back the Canadian government in this, but it cannot fight for them.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't offloading blame, it is pointing out facts.

The penalties have been imposed on a Bombardier model imported in to the US from Canada, not the UK. The factories in NI are only making parts for the C Series and ship them to Canada.

The UK government should 100% back the Canadian government in this, but it cannot fight for them.

Sure it can. It's perfectly reasonable for the UK government to point out directly to the US government that the measures it is threatening will have adverse affects on the UK and on UK producers/workers, and in fact SFAIK the UK government has done precisely this. This isn't the UK government fighting Canada's corner; it's the UK government fighting the UK's corner.

(Fighting, but it looks like a losing fight. Which, as I say, does have a wider significance in the context of Brexit.)

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sure it can. It's perfectly reasonable for the UK government to point out directly to the US government that the measures it is threatening will have adverse affects on the UK and on UK producers/workers, and in fact SFAIK the UK government has done precisely this. This isn't the UK government fighting Canada's corner; it's the UK government fighting the UK's corner.

(Fighting, but it looks like a losing fight. Which, as I say, does have a wider significance in the context of Brexit.)

indeed, it has also made some implied threats direct to Boeing as well.

if the case ends up in international courts though, it will be Canada, nuot the UK, pursuing this.

It does have some indication of what Brexit means, but this is probably a wider demonstration if the "America First" policies being implemented in the US.

Remember, the Donald dumped the TPP and wants to renegotiate NAFTA. Brexit aside and even if the eu did decide to fight Bombardier's corner, a full blown confrontation with the eu would probably suit him right now.

Peregrinus

Yes. I think the UK would be better-positioned if the EU had its back on this but, given the psychotic toddler currently occupying the White House, it might not make any difference to the outcome.

Fratton Fred

Samaris wrote: »

I think the main point to note is that the original line was a joke,

as was the comment about Cork. I had Cornish neighbours in the UK who still owned a house in Truro and who would often talk of Cornwall being different, but usually with a smile on their faces, the same way Cork people talk of the "People's republic".

to say that the Cornish people are slightly genetically different may be true, but it is not unique to Cornwall http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31905764

Jack Nowell, by the way, is an English rugby player, who plays for Exeter.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

How is it? Bombardier is a Canadian company.

Bombardier's N.I output, exports, employment, purchases from local suppliers and tax paid are included in N.I's GDP. Same as Apple, Wyeth, Pfizer and the hundreds of international companies in ROI count towards ours.

You do understand how that works don't you?

kunst nugget

Just out of curiosity, is anyone contributing to this thread living in the UK at the moment. Just wonder what the mood is like on the streets in terms of the recession people are facing as a result of what's happening over the last year or so. Just looking at a website, lending restrictions are being introduced in response to the UK's elevated household debt - which along with the weakened pound will surely have a major effect on consumer spending. Doesn't sound like it's a whole pile of fun.

ambro25

kunst nugget wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, is anyone contributing to this thread living in the UK at the moment.

Yorkshire, since the GFC.

kunst nugget wrote: »

Just wonder what the mood is like on the streets in terms of the recession people are facing as a result of what's happening over the last year or so. Just looking at a website, lending restrictions are being introduced in response to the UK's elevated household debt - which along with the weakened pound will surely have a major effect on consumer spending. Doesn't sound like it's a whole pile of fun.

At street level, there still doesn't seem to be much of a mental connection between the Brexit vote of 16 months ago and the stagnating economy: I'd call it "oblivious drudgery", with most people aware of wheels, big and small, gradually coming off here, there and everywhere; but just getting on with their lives and uninterested in any wider context or debate. How much of that is resignation, how much of that is apathy, how much of that is outright disinterest, <etc.> I have no idea. Just a gut feel.

But plenty of my earlier posts (going back a long while now) explain what it feels like at a 'more executive' level. Ever more clients folding, ever more clients postponing or outright cancelling R&D and investment, ever more clients litigating, consistently so since June last year and, over a year on (the average cycle for my caseload) the effects are plenty clear enough: it feels exactly like late 2008.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Bombardier's N.I output, exports, employment, purchases from local suppliers and tax paid are included in N.I's GDP. Same as Apple, Wyeth, Pfizer and the hundreds of international companies in ROI count towards ours.

You do understand how that works don't you?

err yes, I do.

Bombardier in NI, as Peregrinus states, are collateral damage in this. The tariffs have been imposed on planes that are built in Canada.

Enzokk

Fratton Fred wrote: »

err yes, I do.

Bombardier in NI, as Peregrinus states, are collateral damage in this. The tariffs have been imposed on planes that are built in Canada.

The aircraft are partly built in Canada. They are assembled there but the wings and some structure is built in Belfast. Either way it is jobs in Belfast that will be lost if the UK doesn't get a good outcome here, which will hurt their partner keeping them in government. Its something that isn't needed right now along with trying to Brexit in the least damaging way.

solodeogloria

Good morning!

kunst nugget wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, is anyone contributing to this thread living in the UK at the moment. Just wonder what the mood is like on the streets in terms of the recession people are facing as a result of what's happening over the last year or so. Just looking at a website, lending restrictions are being introduced in response to the UK's elevated household debt - which along with the weakened pound will surely have a major effect on consumer spending. Doesn't sound like it's a whole pile of fun.

Yes, I live in the South East. I would say things are still ticking along in a subdued manner. This is expected due to uncertainty. The economy is still growing, and it is defying some of the more drastic predictions of the remain side (and the IMF, and the Treasury, and George Osborne's other mates who joined in) during the referendum.

I think most people remainers and leavers alike are of the mind that they just want to get this over with.

This thread would make you think that Britain is on the edge of destitution. It isn't true. Although there have been some movements out of the City, most banks seem to be staying put and most seem to think that London is a key place to be irrespective of what happens. There are a number of large banks building new buildings in London at the moment. Bloomberg are just opening up a new campus near Moorgate, although Deutsche Bank are moving a significant number away from the City they too are building a new building also in Moorgate. UBS opened a new building last year behind Liverpool Street station which can seat 6,000 people.

There are also several skyscrapers in construction. 100 Bishopsgate (40 storeys), and 22 Bishopsgate (62 storeys) amongst others.

Food has noticeably got more expensive as have a number of other things, but the UK is holding up pretty well at the moment. Perhaps there's a different perception in the North, but I've found that Brexit hasn't massively impacted life in London. There seems to be a lot of confidence from business here irrespective.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, yes, maybe.

Or maybe they know they can't concede too much now because of domestic politics, and they are waiting for the last minute to push a deal through that will be unpopular at home. Hence the rumblings from the Tory party conference that the real talks will start after Christmas, and the kites from May about this "implementation period" of at least 2 years.

I think what will emerge is an "implementation period" which is just membership by another name, and a new Brexit date of 2021, and more talking.

I think this is probably the actual outcome. I think things are going to get pretty close to the wire before this is agreed though.

Samaris wrote: »

Not much point calling it an "advisory referendum", really. Call it what it is so people know that their vote means something.

And very few people voted for the same Brexit. The ones that knew least shout the most so hard Brexit it is (for instance, the political promises of cake and eating it).

I would say they'd regret it once Britain comes up against the WTO, but most likely they'll just blame the EU, as Solo already is.

Parliament agreed in 2013 to act on the referendum. Moaning about the result is boring, particularly when in other posts you seem to extol the virtues of democracy. Or perhaps, only when it seems to be going your way?

The bottom line is that the people voted to leave the European Union and the Government are delivering that outcome. A discussion can be had about rejoining after the UK has left the European Union. In order for the UK to rejoin the European Union however, we need to hear of a positive case as to why the UK should be a member. Up until now it hasn't had one.

I think the negotiations are at a standstill because there is no flexibility at all on the EU27 side. It'll be interesting to see what happens up until Christmas, but the UK are right to stick to their guns in respect to the ECJ. They are also right to ask for concrete commitments in respect to a transition before the financial side is fully agreed. They need to get something out of this.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Professor Moriarty

Regarding the state of Britain's economy (which is beginning to struggle by any metric), this could be interesting if it comes to fruition:


David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has been threatened with legal action over his refusal to publish 50 secret studies commissioned on the impact of Brexit.

Lawyers acting for the Good Law Project, which is bringing the action jointly with the Green party MEP Molly Scott Cato, wrote to the Brexit department and Treasury on Thursday demanding the release of the documents. They said that failure to do so within 14 days would result in the issue of judicial review proceedings before the high court in an attempt to force their release.

The 50 studies into the impact of Brexit on different industries were commissioned earlier this year but the government has argued that publishing them could damage the UK’s negotiating position with Brussels.


Also:


More than 120 MPs have signed a letter demanding that Davis publish the findings.

The letter, coordinated by Labour’s David Lammy and Seema Malhotra, accused the government of keeping “not only parliament but the public in the dark” and said failure to disclose the advice was preventing MPs from holding ministers to account.



I wonder why the Tories are reluctant to publish the research? I wonder why they might be damaging to the UK's negotiating position? Surely if Brexit will be a glorious economic success then this research will underpin what Johnson, Davis, May, Gove et al have being asserting? What's the problem with the truth?

ambro25

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Regarding the state of Britain's economy (which is beginning to struggle by any metric), this could be interesting if it comes to fruition <snip>

Saw that earlier, and the judicial review proceedings will in all likelihood get filed in 14 days' time (I can't see May, Davis or Fox releasing the 50 studies, because politics and public opinion)

The claimant will in all likelihood win again. And the government will no doubt waste still more taxpayers' cash appeal the judgement, and in all likelihood lose again: I reckon public release of those 50 studies in January or February 2018. Unless the government still refuses to comply then, in contempt of Court (-again), whence March 2018.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder why the Tories are reluctant to publish the research? I wonder why they might be damaging to the UK's negotiating position? Surely if Brexit will be a glorious economic success then this research will underpin what Johnson, Davis, May, Gove et al have being asserting? What's the problem with the truth?

I'm quite looking forward to see how the reports correlate with our feedback (the reports must exist indeed: we contributed to the legal services one earlier this year, we were interviewed by the outfit tasked with preparing it) and with my posts on here - or not.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Perhaps there's a different perception in the North

Nope, it's the same as ever: alternatively ignored or sh*t on by London, whenever the Tories are in No.10.

And Brexit makes not a blind bit of difference to that state of affairs.

I do miss all the rare ('exotic') foods and rarer wine varieties, uniformly pulled wholesale from supermarket shelves over the past 12 months, though. I don't expect there's a penury of those in London, but well. Supply, demand, and all that.

Zubeneschamali

solodeogloria wrote: »

In order for the UK to rejoin the European Union however, we need to hear of a positive case as to why the UK should be a member.

£400 billion costs by 2030 didn't get your attention?

Lemming

kunst nugget wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, is anyone contributing to this thread living in the UK at the moment. Just wonder what the mood is like on the streets in terms of the recession people are facing as a result of what's happening over the last year or so.

ambro25 wrote: »

Yorkshire, since the GFC.
At street level, there still doesn't seem to be much of a mental connection between the Brexit vote of 16 months ago and the stagnating economy: I'd call it "oblivious drudgery", with most people aware of wheels, big and small, gradually coming off here, there and everywhere; but just getting on with their lives and uninterested in any wider context or debate. How much of that is resignation, how much of that is apathy, how much of that is outright disinterest, <etc.> I have no idea. Just a gut feel.

Like Ambro, I too am in Yorkshire and have been since 2010. I would agree with his assessment that there is a mental disconnect between #Wrexsh1t and what's happened since the vote. I know a couple of people who whilst not ardent remainers would have voted to remain who are increasingly of the opinion that "it'll never happen". But otherwise, it's business as usual until the mental connection is made although I have most certainly noticed food price increases. Subtle for the moment, such as Tesco rounding all their prices up to the next pound, so it's no longer £1.99 for an item, it's £2, etc. The energy companies are planning another round of rises just in time for Christmas too, and car insurance has hiked across the board. We'll see how long the myopia lasts.

Personally, I'm past caring what the natives think any more. I liken my view to having friends try to talk you out of doing something really really harmful to yourself, like inject heroin or amputate your arm because you think it doesn't look right , etc. but all you do is turn around and abuse the sh1t out of your friends who are trying to look out for you. A year later you look up past the length of your nose and wonder why they're all distant and none of them care any more. That's how I see #Wrexsh1t. Go ahead and have it. It'll be bigly ifyou'reavulturecapitalist

flatty

Also, the buildings soldeo uses to bolster his argument were all into the construction phase or very advanced planning stage before brexit, at which stage, as a very pessimistic developer pal of mine says, its better to finish them in hope, than abandon them in bankruptcy.

steddyeddy

Lemming wrote: »

Like Ambro, I too am in Yorkshire and have been since 2010. I would agree with his assessment that there is a mental disconnect between #Wrexsh1t and what's happened since the vote. I know a couple of people who whilst not ardent remainers would have voted to remain who are increasingly of the opinion that "it'll never happen". But otherwise, it's business as usual until the mental connection is made although I have most certainly noticed food price increases. Subtle for the moment, such as Tesco rounding all their prices up to the next pound, so it's no longer £1.99 for an item, it's £2, etc. The energy companies are planning another round of rises just in time for Christmas too, and car insurance has hiked across the board. We'll see how long the myopia lasts.

Personally, I'm past caring what the natives think any more. I liken my view to having friends try to talk you out of doing something really really harmful to yourself, like inject heroin or amputate your arm because you think it doesn't look right , etc. but all you do is turn around and abuse the sh1t out of your friends who are trying to look out for you. A year later you look up past the length of your nose and wonder why they're all distant and none of them care any more. That's how I see #Wrexsh1t. Go ahead and have it. It'll be bigly ifyou'reavulturecapitalist

Would I be wrong in thinking that far up t,north is Brexit country?

Lemming

steddyeddy wrote: »

Would I be wrong in thinking that far up t,north is Brexit country?

Yorkshire is a very large place all told, and even when you break it down into South/West/North & the Humber, you'll find it's not straightforward as bits of it are. bits of it aren't. Sheffield is very much a 50/50 split. Doncaster is full on WAHOOO land. Leeds by contrast is very much a remain stronghold.

Gerry T

solodeogloria wrote:

I think the negotiations are at a standstill because there is no flexibility at all on the EU27 side. It'll be interesting to see what happens up until Christmas, but the UK are right to stick to their guns in respect to the ECJ. They are also right to ask for concrete commitments in respect to a transition before the financial side is fully agreed. They need to get something out of this.

Welcome back Solo, while you say people just want to get on with it and the impact of brexit isn't the doomsday most of us here say, all of us are just predicting. Because brexit hasn't happened yet, there's another yr and a half to go, plus the momentum the UK has could see it another yr and a half before what people on her are suggesting. That's prob 2021 before Brexit is really understood. Then if the UK gets a 2yr extension your looking at 2023. So no o don't think brexit will be really felt next yr or the yr after.
But if the UK economy does turn towards recession in the next couple of yrs. Without some forward momentum to counter brexit 2023 could be a bad place for the UK.

murphaph

Solo, the EU says there hasn't been sufficient progress any any one of the 3 key items that we want sorting before any talk of the future relationship can begin.

Whilst I was always of the opinion that the Ireland question is impossible to tackle without knowing the trade situation, the other 2 issues can definitely be solved in isolation. The UK doesn't want to. It wants to use citizens rights and a financial settlement of existing commitments as bargaining chips against a trade deal.

But this tactic is completely backfiring on the UK as we are seeing. The air if desperation is becoming more and more apparent. I'm still wondering at what point you'll accept that Brexit was a mistake of immense proportions.

murphthesmurf

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!



Yes, I live in the South East. I would say things are still ticking along in a subdued manner. This is expected due to uncertainty. The economy is still growing, and it is defying some of the more drastic predictions of the remain side (and the IMF, and the Treasury, and George Osborne's other mates who joined in) during the referendum.

I think most people remainers and leavers alike are of the mind that they just want to get this over with.

This thread would make you think that Britain is on the edge of destitution. It isn't true. Although there have been some movements out of the City, most banks seem to be staying put and most seem to think that London is a key place to be irrespective of what happens. There are a number of large banks building new buildings in London at the moment. Bloomberg are just opening up a new campus near Moorgate, although Deutsche Bank are moving a significant number away from the City they too are building a new building also in Moorgate. UBS opened a new building last year behind Liverpool Street station which can seat 6,000 people.

There are also several skyscrapers in construction. 100 Bishopsgate (40 storeys), and 22 Bishopsgate (62 storeys) amongst others.

Food has noticeably got more expensive as have a number of other things, but the UK is holding up pretty well at the moment. Perhaps there's a different perception in the North, but I've found that Brexit hasn't massively impacted life in London. There seems to be a lot of confidence from business here irrespective.



I think this is probably the actual outcome. I think things are going to get pretty close to the wire before this is agreed though.



Parliament agreed in 2013 to act on the referendum. Moaning about the result is boring, particularly when in other posts you seem to extol the virtues of democracy. Or perhaps, only when it seems to be going your way?

The bottom line is that the people voted to leave the European Union and the Government are delivering that outcome. A discussion can be had about rejoining after the UK has left the European Union. In order for the UK to rejoin the European Union however, we need to hear of a positive case as to why the UK should be a member. Up until now it hasn't had one.

I think the negotiations are at a standstill because there is no flexibility at all on the EU27 side. It'll be interesting to see what happens up until Christmas, but the UK are right to stick to their guns in respect to the ECJ. They are also right to ask for concrete commitments in respect to a transition before the financial side is fully agreed. They need to get something out of this.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Good to hear someone with common sense for a change. I'm English, moved to Ireland around 6yrs ago, all my family and friends are still there. If you think the majority of people over there are running around crying about the democratic vote you are very much mistaken. People like that fool woman in the superhero outfit yesterday are in a minority. I am from the Birmingham area, everyone I know is glad the vote went the way it did.
The biggest problem the British face is from the weak amongst them. Like the people who are trying to get those reports released, why would you intentionally weaken your own countries stance. There is a generation, even a class of people, who believe that everything should go their way. When it doesn't they have to do their very best to make it fail.
I think a lot of the people on here a hoping that it all goes horribly wrong for the British and it'll serve them right. The 'keep calm and carry on' is still very much part of the British psyche. For such a small country Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years. I think it'll be fine, despite the best efforts of the hipsters and millenials.

Professor Moriarty

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Good to hear someone with common sense for a change. I'm English, moved to Ireland around 6yrs ago, all my family and friends are still there. If you think the majority of people over there are running around crying about the democratic vote you are very much mistaken. People like that fool woman in the superhero outfit yesterday are in a minority. I am from the Birmingham area, everyone I know is glad the vote went the way it did.
The biggest problem the British face is from the weak amongst them. Like the people who are trying to get those reports released, why would you intentionally weaken your own countries stance. There is a generation, even a class of people, who believe that everything should go their way. When it doesn't they have to do their very best to make it fail.
I think a lot of the people on here a hoping that it all goes horribly wrong for the British and it'll serve them right. The 'keep calm and carry on' is still very much part of the British psyche. For such a small country Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years. I think it'll be fine, despite the best efforts of the hipsters and millenials.

Hmmm. Any old facts to support your points? A stiff upper lip only gets you so far in 2017.

FrancieBrady

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Good to hear someone with common sense for a change. I'm English, moved to Ireland around 6yrs ago, all my family and friends are still there. If you think the majority of people over there are running around crying about the democratic vote you are very much mistaken. People like that fool woman in the superhero outfit yesterday are in a minority. I am from the Birmingham area, everyone I know is glad the vote went the way it did.
The biggest problem the British face is from the weak amongst them. Like the people who are trying to get those reports released, why would you intentionally weaken your own countries stance. There is a generation, even a class of people, who believe that everything should go their way. When it doesn't they have to do their very best to make it fail.
I think a lot of the people on here a hoping that it all goes horribly wrong for the British and it'll serve them right. The 'keep calm and carry on' is still very much part of the British psyche. For such a small country Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years. I think it'll be fine, despite the best efforts of the hipsters and millenials.

Was it not the 'class who believe everything should go their way' that voted Brexit?

murphthesmurf

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. Any old facts to support your points? A stiff upper lip only gets you so far in 2017.

??? Should I ask all the people I know in England for a written statement?

Professor Moriarty

murphthesmurf wrote: »

??? Should I ask all the people I know in England for a written statement?

That's your call. Your post was simply anecdotal with a few personal beliefs and bit of jingoism thrown in. Nothing much to debate or refute. A few facts to support your contention wouldn't go amiss.

murphthesmurf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Was it not the 'class who believe everything should go their way' that voted Brexit?

No, there was a democratic vote. Most reasonable people stand by a democratic vote, whereas there is a group of people who think the vote should be ignored as it doesn't match their thinking. Tough ****, the vote was done, you lost, stop crying. Get on with it instead of dressing up like a moron and protesting against it like that woman yesterday. She was more interested in everyone listening to her personal point of view rather than letting the government get on with implementing the majority view from the millions of people that voted. Self entitlement is a stain on modern society.
Stop crying about how things didn't go your way, and get the **** on with it.

murphaph

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Good to hear someone with common sense for a change. I'm English, moved to Ireland around 6yrs ago, all my family and friends are still there. If you think the majority of people over there are running around crying about the democratic vote you are very much mistaken. People like that fool woman in the superhero outfit yesterday are in a minority. I am from the Birmingham area, everyone I know is glad the vote went the way it did.
The biggest problem the British face is from the weak amongst them. Like the people who are trying to get those reports released, why would you intentionally weaken your own countries stance. There is a generation, even a class of people, who believe that everything should go their way. When it doesn't they have to do their very best to make it fail.
I think a lot of the people on here a hoping that it all goes horribly wrong for the British and it'll serve them right. The 'keep calm and carry on' is still very much part of the British psyche. For such a small country Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years. I think it'll be fine, despite the best efforts of the hipsters and millenials.

Britain stopped punching above its weight at the very latest by the Suez crisis. After that it was a steady decline until the IMF was called in and the UK joined the common market.

The keep calm and carry on attitude won't do anything for the sh1tstorm on Brexit day, should there be no deal granted by the EU. And it will be chaos like you've never known. The integrity of the single market is sacrosanct.

murphthesmurf

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's your call. Your post was simply anecdotal with a few personal beliefs and bit of jingoism thrown in. Nothing much to debate or refute. A few facts to support your contention wouldn't go amiss.

?? I just stated the views of the people I know in the UK, from various age groups, all from working class. How can I produce facts to support that? Or do you just assume I am just spouting bull**** for the fun of it? My friends are middle aged, as well as some younger. I go to the pub with my dad his friends range from 50-70's. They all say the same thing. I'll be sure to video the conversations next time and upload them to Boards for Professor Moriarty. If you don't want to debate thats fine, I wont lose any sleep. Somebody posted asking if anyone lives in the UK and what people there are thinking. I replied as I am from there and speak to people from there.

carrickbally

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Good to hear someone with common sense for a change. I'm English, moved to Ireland around 6yrs ago, all my family and friends are still there. If you think the majority of people over there are running around crying about the democratic vote you are very much mistaken. People like that fool woman in the superhero outfit yesterday are in a minority. I am from the Birmingham area, everyone I know is glad the vote went the way it did.
The biggest problem the British face is from the weak amongst them. Like the people who are trying to get those reports released, why would you intentionally weaken your own countries stance. There is a generation, even a class of people, who believe that everything should go their way. When it doesn't they have to do their very best to make it fail.
I think a lot of the people on here a hoping that it all goes horribly wrong for the British and it'll serve them right. The 'keep calm and carry on' is still very much part of the British psyche. For such a small country Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years. I think it'll be fine, despite the best efforts of the hipsters and millenials.

Writing from Ireland.

International friendship between nations is characterised by mutual respect and an acknowledgement of common interests.

The present situation is that the EU is made up of nearly thirty European democracies each of which have signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest. How much that falls short of mutual respect is open to argument.

But it is the most advanced agreement in international cooperation in the world today. It also replaced a situation within the lifetime of some in which two totalitarian dictators reduced much of Europe to rubble in a row over which of them should control the continent.

With that as a background the UK through Brexit has declared economic war on the rest of Europe and especially on this its former colony.

Not much mutual respect or friendship there.


How much the antithesis to its neighbours that was expressed by Brexit is part of the British psyche is open to question.

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's your call. Your post was simply anecdotal with a few personal beliefs and bit of jingoism thrown in. Nothing much to debate or refute. A few facts to support your contention wouldn't go amiss.

And these two posts?

Or is anecdotal ok when its what you want to hear?

Lemming wrote: »

Like Ambro, I too am in Yorkshire and have been since 2010. I would agree with his assessment that there is a mental disconnect between #Wrexsh1t and what's happened since the vote. I know a couple of people who whilst not ardent remainers would have voted to remain who are increasingly of the opinion that "it'll never happen". But otherwise, it's business as usual until the mental connection is made although I have most certainly noticed food price increases. Subtle for the moment, such as Tesco rounding all their prices up to the next pound, so it's no longer £1.99 for an item, it's £2, etc. The energy companies are planning another round of rises just in time for Christmas too, and car insurance has hiked across the board. We'll see how long the myopia lasts.

Personally, I'm past caring what the natives think any more. I liken my view to having friends try to talk you out of doing something really really harmful to yourself, like inject heroin or amputate your arm because you think it doesn't look right , etc. but all you do is turn around and abuse the sh1t out of your friends who are trying to look out for you. A year later you look up past the length of your nose and wonder why they're all distant and none of them care any more. That's how I see #Wrexsh1t. Go ahead and have it. It'll be bigly ifyou'reavulturecapitalist

ambro25 wrote: »

Yorkshire, since the GFC.
At street level, there still doesn't seem to be much of a mental connection between the Brexit vote of 16 months ago and the stagnating economy: I'd call it "oblivious drudgery", with most people aware of wheels, big and small, gradually coming off here, there and everywhere; but just getting on with their lives and uninterested in any wider context or debate. How much of that is resignation, how much of that is apathy, how much of that is outright disinterest, <etc.> I have no idea. Just a gut feel.

But plenty of my earlier posts (going back a long while now) explain what it feels like at a 'more executive' level. Ever more clients folding, ever more clients postponing or outright cancelling R&D and investment, ever more clients litigating, consistently so since June last year and, over a year on (the average cycle for my caseload) the effects are plenty clear enough: it feels exactly like late 2008.

devnull

Just heard Phillip Hammond call the European Union 'the enemy' they really are not very good at this negotiations lark are they?

They just come across as a bunch of petulant spoiled children throwing their toys out of the pram because the EU won't give them what they want, despite the fact they were the ones who are leaving yet they somehow think they are owed big style by the club they have decided to leave and not pay the membership but still want the benefits.

If they are leaving the club then the EU are going to act in a way which benefits the 27 countries remaining the most, they couldn't and shouldn't care less about what happens to a country that has decided to leave, it's not their problem anymore, all their focus should be on is doing the best for the 27 and if the UK don't like that, that is their fault for leaving.

flatty

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's your call. Your post was simply anecdotal with a few personal beliefs and bit of jingoism thrown in. Nothing much to debate or refute. A few facts to support your contention wouldn't go amiss.

?? I just stated the views of the people I know in the UK, from various age groups, all from working class. How can I produce facts to support that? Or do you just assume I am just spouting bull**** for the fun of it? My friends are middle aged, as well as some younger. I go to the pub with my dad his friends range from 50-70's. They all say the same thing. I'll be sure to video the conversations next time and upload them to Boards for Professor Moriarty. If you don't want to debate thats fine, I wont lose any sleep. Somebody posted asking if anyone lives in the UK and what people there are thinking. I replied as I am from there and speak to people from there.

I'm still living in the UK. Most people I encounter are horrified at the way things are going. Friends who voted for brexit all bar one, would not vote for it if given another vote on the issue, and most are extremely upset that a few little englanders at the sharp end are intent on ramming their own version through come what may, likely as there will be personal profit in it down the line.
This is anecdotal and unsupported, but true nonetheless.
On the other hand, I don't know a single remain voter personally, who would now vote for brexit.

FrancieBrady

murphthesmurf wrote: »

No, there was a democratic vote. Most reasonable people stand by a democratic vote, whereas there is a group of people who think the vote should be ignored as it doesn't match their thinking. Tough ****, the vote was done, you lost, stop crying. Get on with it instead of dressing up like a moron and protesting against it like that woman yesterday. She was more interested in everyone listening to her personal point of view rather than letting the government get on with implementing the majority view from the millions of people that voted. Self entitlement is a stain on modern society.
Stop crying about how things didn't go your way, and get the **** on with it.

I didn't have a vote. I do have an opinion on the vote and what is about to happen though.

murphthesmurf

flatty wrote: »

I'm still living in the UK. Most people I encounter are horrified at the way things are going. Friends who voted for brexit all bar one, would not vote for it if given another vote on the issue, and most are extremely upset that a few little englanders at the sharp end are intent on ramming their own version through come what may, likely as there will be personal profit in it down the line.
This is anecdotal and unsupported, but true nonetheless.
On the other hand, I don't know a single remain voter personally, who would now vote for brexit.

I agree, the government are handling it very badly. May is too weak.

carrickbally

A little bit of history as a background from Ireland.

Brexit has torn up the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty European democracies and has also torn up the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

The latter has effectively reimposed the lack of free movement across the border in Ireland.

The sympathy for the British government is in short supply on this as it was in 1912 when the imperial parliament in London, which was then governing nearly quarter the population of the globe, itself created the border problem.

murphthesmurf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I didn't have a vote. I do have an opinion on the vote and what is about to happen though.

Weren't you allowed to vote? I live here in Ireland and am not allowed to vote unless I buy the right for a few grand. Is it the same in UK? I always assumed anyone who was residentin the UK was entitled to vote.

Fratton Fred

carrickbally wrote: »

A little bit of history as a background from Ireland.

Brexit has torn up the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty European democracies and has also torn up the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

you can keep saying this as often as you like, it will never actually become the truth.

The UK has not "Torn Up" any agreements. It is seeking to legally and through due process exit from one, whilst the other is untouched.

johnnyskeleton

carrickbally wrote: »

A little bit of history as a background from Ireland.

Brexit has torn up the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty European democracies and has also torn up the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

The latter has effectively reimposed the lack of free movement across the border in Ireland.

The sympathy for the British government is in short supply on this as it was in 1912 when the imperial parliament in London, which was then governing nearly quarter the population of the globe, itself created the border problem.

Mod note:

Please engage with other posters rather than rephrasing your last post.

Gerry T

I don't agree people on here wish the UK some disaster, some might, but not all. The general concensus is the UK is damaging the EU, Ireland and more importantly itself.
So what was the reasons you voted for brexit. And how will things be better post brexit
Do you see the UK with better trade deals etc....

murphthesmurf

carrickbally wrote: »

A little bit of history as a background from Ireland.

Brexit has torn up the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty European democracies and has also torn up the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

The latter has effectively reimposed the lack of free movement across the border in Ireland.

The sympathy for the British government is in short supply on this as it was in 1912 when the imperial parliament in London, which was then governing nearly quarter the population of the globe, itself created the border problem.

My personal belief is that free movement between UK and Ireland will remain. You have to understand though that the people decided on Brexit, the government just has to carry it out. The people did not like being part of the EU, I don't believe anyone, even the rightest of right wing people want to see relations with Ireland suffer. The British like the Irish much more than the Irish like the British from my experience.
If you and a friend are in a football club together, and your friend decides that the club isn't for him anymore and he goes to play for another team. It means you are a man down and the club may feel betrayed. But do you stop being his friend? He just did what he believes is best for him.

devnull

murphthesmurf wrote: »

My personal belief is that free movement between UK and Ireland will remain.

But the problem with that is that it would require a back door to be left open to the UK via Ireland if that is the case and that is something that a lot of Brexiteers and also what a lot of the Tory party say cannot be allowed to happen since it will mean the UK will not be able to control all it's borders.

Unless they moderate their requests and allow the back door to be left open there will be no alternative but to use a policed border with checkpoints to check that people who are entering the UK from Ireland are not those who are using it to get around the fact they cannot enter the UK directly.

Many of the Brexiteers couldn't care less what happens to Northern Ireland or Ireland after they leave, a lot of them don't even see NI as part of the UK really.

Professor Moriarty

murphthesmurf wrote: »

My personal belief is that free movement between UK and Ireland will remain. You have to understand though that the people decided on Brexit, the government just has to carry it out. The people did not like being part of the EU, I don't believe anyone, even the rightest of right wing people want to see relations with Ireland suffer. The British like the Irish much more than the Irish like the British from my experience.
If you and a friend are in a football club together, and your friend decides that the club isn't for him anymore and he goes to play for another team. It means you are a man down and the club may feel betrayed. But do you stop being his friend? He just did what he believes is best for him.

Yeah. What if your friend is going to seriously damage your economy, endanger peace in your country and severely damage an institution that is fundamental to your wellbeing? This isn't football.

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. What if your friend is going to seriously damage your economy, endanger peace in your country and severely damage an institution that is fundamental to your wellbeing? This isn't football.

And if someone leaves their club for a new one do they start asking their previous club for some kind of help financially and to do deals with them in the same way that they did when they played for their previous club and then when they can't get their own way throw their toys out of the pram?

Or should the old club think, he's left, now we will focus on what is best for us?

Enzokk

devnull wrote: »

Just heard Phillip Hammond call the European Union 'the enemy' they really are not very good at this negotiations lark are they?

They just come across as a bunch of petulant spoiled children throwing their toys out of the pram because the EU won't give them what they want, despite the fact they were the ones who are leaving yet they somehow think they are owed big style by the club they have decided to leave and not pay the membership but still want the benefits.

If they are leaving the club then the EU are going to act in a way which benefits the 27 countries remaining the most, they couldn't and shouldn't care less about what happens to a country that has decided to leave, it's not their problem anymore, all their focus should be on is doing the best for the 27 and if the UK don't like that, that is their fault for leaving.

So he sees the EU as the enemy in the negotiations. I wonder what that does to Theresa May and how she sees things,

Theresa May wrote:

Achieving that partnership will require leadership and flexibility, not just from us but from our friends, the 27 nations of the EU.

'The ball is in your court now' - says both Theresa May to Brussels, and Brussels to Theresa May

I am struggling to know what the plan is here. It seems to me that the government keeps going from one drama to the next.

On the border, there has been numerous attempts to try and show solo that you cannot just get on with Brexit but maintain an open border. One of the cornerstones of the Brexit campaign, to control immigration, will have to be set aside if you want an open border with Ireland.