Brexit discussion thread II

I have access to only a piece of this Daily Telegraph article. But apparently, Britain is £490 billion 'poorer' than previously thought. Also FDI by companies is plummeting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/britains-missing-billions-revised-figures-reveal-uk-490bn-poorer/

BoatMad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Tell me, how many Polish Universities are getting EU science funding? Lithuanian Universities? It makes sense to invest your resources in a manner which yields the best result meaning that the UK's largely excellent Universities are the ones which will benefit most. 4 of the world's top 5/6 Universities, including my employer are British.

Following on from that, you're assuming that this money will be available year after year and you've provided nothing whatsoever to substantiate this assertion.

By the way, I would appreciate it if you would back up your claim that most remainers are Euro-federalists.

You'd be more believable if you fact checked your own argument

Uk has 3 universities in the worlds top 10 and 2 in the top 6 ( times education supplement )

Uk universities have been and were huge beneficiaries of EU funding and more importantly multilateral initiatives

All of which are being removed from uk institutions. I have two friends that are professors in uk universities and they view the damage as incalculable

BoatMad

Ted Plain wrote: »

Firstly, I would like to thank all contributors to this thread. It is endlessly long, but full of quality, thought provoking posts.

There are so many permutations that I don't even know where to begin in commenting.

Although at first I was far from happy with the Brexit outcome, I now now seeing no other outcome as a hard, dirty Brexit.

It will hurt Ireland, but it will hurt the UK massively more.

I read an article in spiegel.de last week and they hit upon the Brexiteer fallacy that the German car manufacturers would put pressure on the German government to intervene so as to protect German car exports to the UK. Seemingly not. They recognise that the EU market is more important and if the cost of Brexit is no more exports to the UK then so be it.

I'm also going to give you a bit of gossip here in so far as my missus works for a big international company based in city centre Dublin and they are upgrading to a bigger office. A London agency has just reserved 100,000 sq. ft on behalf of a client, which is diminishing the available office space on offer. Make of that what you will.

There is a blackly comedic quality to the slogan about giving £350 million a week to the NHS. The way I can see things panning out is that the US-UK trade deal will involve the Americans dictating that the NHS is disbanded and that the market be opened up to American health insurance. Trumpcare!

Another facet of the whole thing is that old enemies of the UK will have their say when it comes to EU or WTO negotiations. All the losers of the Yalta Conference will have grounds to want to extract vengeance on a weakened victor, not to mention Argentina. All other potential suitors will smell blood and the UK will end up with bad deals all around.

My last thought for now turns to what it is exactly that the UK intends to trade with the rest of the world and how they will have a better deal than they do at present. These countries don't eat mince pies, sausage rolls and Stilton so what exactly do they have to offer? I'm sure they don't need Canary Wharf repackaged futures or any of that sort of nonsense. A trade deal with the US and, say, Brazil, will involve having to accept -aside from the famous chlorine US chicken - Brazilian and Argentinian foot and mouth beef and US hormone-fed GMO Frankenstein BSE beef. This will result in all exports from the UK into Europe being stopped with immediate effect.

My last thought for now turns to Shell and Unilever. These two titans are jointly HQed in the UK and the Netherlands. I believe that the loss of these two alone would plunge any country into recession.

I see nothing but a calamitous, catastrophic cluster****.

Brexit will destroy UK farmers , who will become subsidy junkies with no market access.

It will be study material for generations of students

The last time the UK " won " it endured a decade of austerity followed by the country needing the imf in the early 70s.

They still convinced them selves of course that they " won" , while they use the " losers " cars , aeroplanes , trans etc.

" fog in channel, continent cut off " , but as Rees-moog said recently but remember " agincourt " , oh right that's fine then

There isn't a single truthful brexit argument

Junkyard Tom

BoatMad wrote: »

They still convinced them selves of course that they " won" , while they use the " losers " cars , aeroplanes , trans etc.

That's the odd thing about economic optimism with Brextremists. Britain sold off an awful lot of its manufacturing industry so there's going to be little in the way of 'Britain's interests first' when it comes to the crunch. I'm not sure there's any good reason the entire Mini™ range of cars couldn't be manufactured in Austria.

murphaph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I have access to only a piece of this Daily Telegraph article. But apparently, Britain is £490 billion 'poorer' than previously thought. Also FDI by companies is plummeting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/britains-missing-billions-revised-figures-reveal-uk-490bn-poorer/

It's available on some other media outlets now. This is pretty shocking and really should see Brexit halted if at all possible. They're talking about that being equivalent to 25% of GDP wiped off the books.

http://m.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/new-figures-show-britain-500bn-poorer-than-thought-36230217.html

Enzokk

So let's get this straight. The UK has made projections on the most optimistic of figures from the OBR and there is less money available to spend than thought. Now it seems that there is a £490 billion hole in the finances as well.

An people still think it is a good idea to cause more uncertainty to Brexit?

https://twitter.com/exitthelemming/status/919829318259404800


What would scare me the most about these stories is that they are not just reported in what people would consider to be liberal newspapers.

Trying to make sense of the UK productivity puzzle

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

It's available on some other media outlets now. This is pretty shocking and really should see Brexit halted if at all possible. They're talking about that being equivalent to 25% of GDP wiped off the books.

http://m.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/new-figures-show-britain-500bn-poorer-than-thought-36230217.html

I think the timing of David Davis and Theresa May going to the EU for talks is no coincidence when these stories came out. There has to be a give from the UK and I think we may see the end of the current government as any compromise will be seized on by the zealous Brexiteers in the Conservative party.

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

So let's get this straight. The UK has made projections on the most optimistic of figures from the OBR and there is less money available to spend than thought. Now it seems that there is a £490 billion hole in the finances as well.

An people still think it is a good idea to cause more uncertainty to Brexit?
<...>

I wonder how much of this has anything to do with Theresa's jetting off to Brussels in extremis today?

EDIT - snap your later post

Professor Moriarty

ambro25 wrote: »

I wonder how much of this has anything to do with Theresa's jetting off to Brussels in extremis today?

EDIT - snap your later post

I'd say they've gone over to plead for help in extricating themselves from this mess of their own making now that they've found a gaping hole in their accounts. I hope they're told to foxtrot oscar. Best for all concerned if the Tories are left to twist in the wind.

Nody

I think this is the worst part from the Independent's version of the article:

The revision is disturbing given that foreign direct investment into Britain has collapsed, plummeting from a net £120bn in the first half of last year to a net outflow of £25bn this year.

That's a drop of 145 billion GBP of investment in UK in 1 year; but hey project fear was all wrong stating that investments would be reduced and the economy would take a hit so has to be fake news as clearly as the Brexiteers stated it would not happen.

On another fun note this morning Dominic Cummings, also known as the brains behind Brexit, had a few choice comments on how things have been going so far:

Dominic Cummings told Prospect that Theresa May and Mr Davis "have provided a case study of grotesque uselessness" in the way they are dealing with the Brexit process.

Michael Gove, predicted there would be an "inevitable inquiry" into why Brexit occurred, and said that "schoolchildren will shake their heads in disbelief that such characters could have had leading roles in government".

called Mr Davis "lazy as a toad" and declared that the Government decision to leave the European Atomic Energy Community was made by "morons" who were "near-retarded on every dimension".

The scary part is I can't really disagree with anything he's stated either...

Professor Moriarty

Nody wrote: »

I think this is the worst part from the Independent's version of the article:
That's a drop of 145 billion GBP of investment in UK in 1 year; but hey project fear was all wrong stating that investments would be reduced and the economy would take a hit so has to be fake news as clearly as the Brexiteers stated it would not happen.

Jaysus. That's an eye-watering reversal. Still, when they join NAFTA the FDI will pour in again. Tally ho.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

I think this is the worst part from the Independent's version of the article:
That's a drop of 145 billion GBP of investment in UK in 1 year; but hey project fear was all wrong stating that investments would be reduced and the economy would take a hit so has to be fake news as clearly as the Brexiteers stated it would not happen.

On another fun note this morning Dominic Cummings, also known as the brains behind Brexit, had a few choice comments on how things have been going so far:

The scary part is I can't really disagree with anything he's stated either...

But with a remit to leave the EU that is to leave all of the EU. David Cameron really screwed up by not clarifying the question as at the moment if the UK doesn't leave the EU in total there will still be resentment on how great it could have been had the right people been in charge.

steddyeddy

This is a huge development. Project fear becomes project fact. It certainly puts the debate about the Brexit divorce bill into perspective.

Professor Moriarty

steddyeddy wrote: »

This is a huge development. Project fear becomes project fact. It certainly puts the debate about the Brexit divorce bill into perspective.

She's buying Juncker dinner and ringing Macron and Merkel to plead her case. An EU source said that she's wasting her time. Schadenfreude is ugly but when it comes to hypocritical Tories, it's allowed.

ambro25

Nody wrote: »

<...> That's a drop of 145 billion GBP of investment in UK in 1 year <...>

£2.8bn-a-week's worth of investment down the populist tubes, for the sake of party politics...well, f*** me! :mad:

The worst is not that, Nody: the worst is the combination of the £500bn chasm in the UK's finances and the capacity to plug that chasm vanishing through lack of investment. At the macro scale, that's not a hiccup, it's a bloody heart attack. A vicious circle if ever there was one.

Oh well, at least now there are independent numbers to back my business gut feel of the past few months. Vindication never tasted so bitter

I think Osbourne's proposed emergency budget of 2016 is going to look fairly benign, by the time Spreadsheet Phil unveils his next budget.

Lemming

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

She's buying Juncker dinner and ringing Macron and Merkel to plead her case. An EU source said that she's wasting her time. Schadenfreude is ugly but when it comes to hypocritical Tories, it's allowed.

When I read that she was going I thought that she's making the exact same mistakes that Cameron made in attempting to love-bomb the Germans, as if they control the EU. Simple continuation of "we have no clue how the EU works" stuff. Then I read that eye-watering article linked about regards 25% of GDP basically wiped out. TBH, I couldn't have imagined that level of financial carnage. It only takes a few percent to make itself felt, but that amount is very much into the "experts, who knew right?!!!!" territory of face-palm reactions. What's even more terrifying is that the UK hasn't even left yet.

Whilst I'm sure this revelation should stiffen a few more spines and open a few more eyes, I still believe that at this juncture, the UK needs Brexit. Cancelling A50 will simply see another re-run of the last 40 years only it'll be far more poisonous and vitriolic as the cancer continues to fester and ravage the national psyche.

Capt'n Midnight

Round up of bad news. Young people in the UK don't have a lot to look forward to. Reminds me of how things used to be


Financial regulator warns of growing debt among young people "There has been a clear shift in the generational pattern of wealth and income, and that translates into a greater indebtedness at a younger age.

"That reflects lower levels of real income, lower levels of asset ownership. There are quite different generational experiences," he said.



Vauxhall plans 400 job cuts at Ellesmere Port as sales fallHe told the BBC: "The depreciation of sterling since the Brexit vote has meant that the cost of importing components has gone up, so it's a more costly plant."


The Bank of England should hold off from raising interest rates next month, according to a forecasting body. However, the EY Item Club said such a move risked hurting the UK's "fragile economic outlook".

BCC: 'Robust' manufacturing fails to boost UK growth BCC director general Dr Adam Marshall said: "The uninspiring results we see in our third-quarter findings reflect the fact that political uncertainty, currency fluctuations and the vagaries of the Brexit process are continuing to weigh on business growth prospects.




UK farmers will 'grow more food' if no Brexit deal - minister Agricultural products are one of the UK's most important exports while the UK sources roughly 70% of the food it imports from the EU,
^^^^^
This one is just wishful thinking. The UK imports over half of it's food and feed.
by the mid-2040s, the country will only be able to produce enough food to feed 53% of its population.

Professor Moriarty

Lemming wrote: »

When I read that she was going I thought that she's making the exact same mistakes that Cameron made in attempting to love-bomb the Germans, as if they control the EU. Simple continuation of "we have no clue how the EU works" stuff. Then I read that eye-watering article linked about regards 25% of GDP basically wiped out. TBH, I couldn't have imagined that level of financial carnage. It only takes a few percent to make itself felt, but that amount is very much into the "experts, who knew right?!!!!" territory of face-palm reactions. What's even more terrifying is that the UK hasn't even left yet.

Whilst I'm sure this revelation should stiffen a few more spines and open a few more eyes, I still believe that at this juncture, the UK needs Brexit. Cancelling A50 will simply see another re-run of the last 40 years only it'll be far more poisonous and vitriolic as the cancer continues to fester and ravage the national psyche.

I dunno. I think if they cancel and return to the fold, they might do so with a different perspective and with their tail between their legs. Except for Major's bastards of course. They'll always dine out on eurosceptism.

carrickbally

How do I stop all the posts being emailed to me?

FrancieBrady

carrickbally wrote: »

How do I stop all the posts being emailed to me?

Go into your setting and turn off notifications

murphaph

Isn't it rather troubling that this massive amount of apparently lost wealth isn't making the headlines right across the UK media today? It's really head in the sand stuff to me. I'd imagine if Ireland faced a similar issue it would be the headline news for a week!

carrickbally

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Go into your setting and turn off notifications

Thank you very much.

Could you give a bit more about the steps to be taken.

Sorry to be such a pain.

Capt'n Midnight

Just in case people are still pointing at the FTSE as an example of Brexit going well.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-41612603

Both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have been powering ahead with the FTSE 100 hitting a record high last week.

But what's driving this stellar performance?

...
"Only 25% of FTSE 100 companies are driven by domestic sales, so what matters much more to the stock market is global activity and global growth," she says.

FrancieBrady

carrickbally wrote: »

Thank you very much.

Could you give a bit more about the steps to be taken.

Sorry to be such a pain.

There is a checkbox asking if you want to receive an email in your settings.
On a phone here so can't check exactly

carrickbally

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is a checkbox asking if you want to receive an email in your settings.
On a phone here so can't check exactly

Thank you so much.

I hope I have got it.

No they are still coming even though I turned it off at settings.

ancapailldorcha

carrickbally wrote: »

Thank you so much.

I hope I have got it.

No they are still coming even though I turned it off at settings.

Unfollow the thread and follow it again but click "No email notifications".

Nody

You know you'd think the government would have learned by now that telling porkies in the Brexit discussion is simply not going to work and they will be called out on it.

European officials have said that they were not certain when a dinner meeting between Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker was going to happen even as late as Friday last week.

A spokesman for the European Commission said the idea had been “on the agenda for a long time”, but the date ahead of a critical European Council meeting was not confirmed until the last few days.

At the same time Ms May’s spokesperson told reporters the dinner had been in her diary for weeks, as Number 10 denied claims it was a last-minute attempt to break a deadlock in Brexit negotiations ahead of the Council.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

You know you'd think the government would have learned by now that telling porkies in the Brexit discussion is simply not going to work and they will be called out on it.

European officials have said that they were not certain when a dinner meeting between Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker was going to happen even as late as Friday last week.

A spokesman for the European Commission said the idea had been “on the agenda for a long time”, but the date ahead of a critical European Council meeting was not confirmed until the last few days.

At the same time Ms May’s spokesperson told reporters the dinner had been in her diary for weeks, as Number 10 denied claims it was a last-minute attempt to break a deadlock in Brexit negotiations ahead of the Council.

Somehow I think had the negotiations been able to move on to trade Theresa May would not have bothered with this meeting. I see in the same story that Boris may be a little delusional and it seems that he is one of those that thinks it has all been a game so far but now is the time for the serious negotiations to begin.

Arriving for a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers in Luxembourg, Mr Johnson said: “We think in the UK that it's time to get on with these negotiations.

“It's ready for the great ship to go down the slipway and on to the open sea and for us to start some serious conversations about the future and the new relationship.”

A Little Pony

carrickbally wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I would cut one of my legs off to get out of the EU. I don't care how it happens, just get out as quickly as possible.

That sums up better than most the basis for Brexit.

That sums up the basis for the tearing up of the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty other European democracies.

That also sums up the basis for the tearing up of the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

It also sums up the basis of the UK's declaring economic war on the rest of Europe and especially on this former colony.

Irrational, emotional racism.

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

Enzokk

A Little Pony wrote: »

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

Seems to me it is convenient for Northern Ireland to decide when it is British or not. By all means follow the vote for the whole of the UK, but why not follow the rest of the UK to allow same sex marriage?

A Little Pony

Enzokk wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

Seems to me it is convenient for Northern Ireland to decide when it is British or not. By all means follow the vote for the whole of the UK, but why not follow the rest of the UK to allow same sex marriage?

That's a devolved issue, if we didn't have devolution Northern Ireland probably would have gay marriage. That's just the way it is.

mountaintop

A Little Pony wrote: »

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

Once, when they looked across the ruins of a war ravaged Europe, people had a dream of a time when the continent would find peace and prosperity, when people would live as one, when all could strive to be the best they could be, when Europe would lead the way in science and education as a combination of great talents and minds. Miraculously, this was achieved. And what do people the likes of Little Pony say? That they'd rather cut off one of their legs than have anything to do with it. It is voices like his that that are the first to whisper into the ears of the dogs of war.
One can only shake their head in despair.

cml387

An interesting exchange at last weeks PMQ's in the commons, maybe some missed it.

During an assault on the slow car crash that is Britain's new universal credit initiative by jeremy Corbyn, with May under pressure about people waiting penniless for six weeks for benefit, the speaker catches the eye of Ian Duncan Smith.
Now IDS is the creator of this great new policy, it's his creation.

Does he leap to the defence of his brainchild? No, he goes off on a rant about how money should be spent now on preparations for a hard Brexit.

The madness at the heart of government is now clear. Nothing else matters. This is now a battle for the Conservative party,subsuming all governance into the black hole of Brexit.

Are we now in a situation like the slowly boiled frog? As the temperature rises slowly the frog doesn't notice that it's going to be boiled alive?

steddyeddy

cml387 wrote: »

An interesting exchange at last weeks PMQ's in the commons, maybe some missed it.

During an assault on the slow car crash that is Britain's new universal credit initiative by jeremy Corbyn, with May under pressure about people waiting penniless for six weeks for benefit, the speaker catches the eye of Ian Duncan Smith.
Now IDS is the creator of this great new policy, it's his creation.

Does he leap to the defence of his brainchild? No, he goes off on a rant about how money should be spent now on preparations for a hard Brexit.

The madness at the heart of government is now clear. Nothing else matters. This is now a battle for the Conservative party,subsuming all governance into the black hole of Brexit.

Are we now in a situation like the slowly boiled frog? As the temperature rises slowly the frog doesn't notice that it's going to be boiled alive?

I previously would have regarded the Conservatives as economically conservative. Lately they've represented the most loony economic and social policies that Britain has seen.

First Up

mountaintop wrote:

One can only shake their head in despair.

Nah; leave them to their demons. We have better things to be doing.

Nody

Saw this posted on another forum but thought it was to good to pass up; it was a response in a discussion on the 490 billion GBP figure and how it can be used as a get out of Brexit card (note this is a joke so don't take it to serious):

Don’t panic. Hammond can ask the IMF for a loan. IMF says the condition of the loan is to cancel Brexit. Brexit is cancelled, loan is repaid – and some wonder whether it is all just a game.

View

A Little Pony wrote: »

carrickbally wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I would cut one of my legs off to get out of the EU. I don't care how it happens, just get out as quickly as possible.

That sums up better than most the basis for Brexit.

That sums up the basis for the tearing up of the treaty the UK signed with nearly thirty other European democracies.

That also sums up the basis for the tearing up of the Good Friday Agreement the UK signed with Ireland.

It also sums up the basis of the UK's declaring economic war on the rest of Europe and especially on this former colony.

Irrational, emotional racism.

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

It clearly is to do with racism.

One of primary reasons cited by Leave voters for voting Leave was immigration. So, clearly, Leave voters did have a problem with immigration. Indeed, it was no accident that Brexit proponents used immigration as a topic during the campaign, but rather it was a deliberate strategy by them intended to persuade people to back Brexit.

Only, it wasn’t a problem with immigration from non-EU countries since both before and after the referendum, the U.K. has handed out and continues to hand out visas to huge numbers of non-EU citizens every year and no Brexit politician has the slightest problem with it.

And, like it or not, if the voters who backed Brexit have a problem with EU citizens who immigrate to the U.K. and want to stop/restrain them, while they ignore the much large number of non-EU immigrants, then that clearly is racism.

First Up

View wrote:

And, like it or not, if the voters who backed Brexit have a problem with EU citizens who immigrate to the U.K. and want to stop/restrain them, while they ignore the much large number of non-EU immigrants, then that clearly is racism.

I don't think they ignore them. More likely they are too thick to realise that leaving the EU makes no difference to non-EU immigration.

Jim2007

View wrote: »

And, like it or not, if the voters who backed Brexit have a problem with EU citizens who immigrate to the U.K. and want to stop/restrain them, while they ignore the much large number of non-EU immigrants, then that clearly is racism.

But there is a bit of a difference - EU citizens must be treated exactly as citizens, where as one guy but it no-EU people: 'know there place'

Jim2007

Nody wrote: »

Saw this posted on another forum but thought it was to good to pass up; it was a response in a discussion on the 490 billion GBP figure and how it can be used as a get out of Brexit card (note this is a joke so don't take it to serious):

But this is also yet another example of the arrogance - the idea that they can simple cancel BREXIT. There is no provision what so ever to allow for this, other than UK jurists opinion which is centred mainly around their right to change their minds rather that a requirement by anyone in the EU accept their new vision... Who would they have to inform, what would be the procedure of it's acceptance - just the council of ministers, the parliament... and what prevents the ECJ from hear an appeal on it by say some BREXIT citizen...

Jim2007

A Little Pony wrote: »

Racism? Laughable. Nothing racist about it. It's about respecting democracy and what the people voted for as you would with any legitimate democratic vote.

But what did the people vote for? Britain has a sovereign parliament, that is how their democracy works, no matter how much you'd like it to be different.

TM asked for a mandate to execute BREXIT and did not get it. In stead the people returned a collection of MPs representing several flavours of BREXIT, but none with a sufficient majority to implement it without some kind of a coalition.

The PMs need to come up with some kind of a compromise or go back to the people, that is all they can do. Demanding they respect democracy and go implement something, when the people have not expressed a clear wish at the GE, is pointless because the people's vote was inconclusive.

FrancieBrady

Jim2007 wrote: »

But what did the people vote for? Britain has a sovereign parliament, that is how their democracy works, no matter how much you'd like it to be different.

TM asked for a mandate to execute BREXIT and did not get it. In stead the people returned a collection of MPs representing several flavours of BREXIT, but none with a sufficient majority to implement it without some kind of a coalition.

The PMs need to come up with some kind of a compromise or go back to the people, that is all they can do. Demanding they respect democracy and go implement something, when the people have not expressed a clear wish at the GE, is pointless because the people's vote was inconclusive.

Absolutely, if you cannot achieve a consensus you go back to the people. You don't pay bungs to try and bludgeon something through.

Convinced the people will get their properly informed (and boy do they know now) vote on this.

ancapailldorcha

steddyeddy wrote: »

I previously would have regarded the Conservatives as economically conservative. Lately they've represented the most loony economic and social policies that Britain has seen.

With respect, I think that this is a very simplistic analysis of the Conservative party. In it's current form, the party is a coalition of classically liberal free marketeers who wish to limit the state as much as possible, socially conservative Christian democrats and one-nation Tories who believe in using the state to help the worst-off in society. Party policies tend to be a compromise between these groups much like Labour has its trade unionists, socialists, communists and market-liberal Blairite centrists.

Generally speaking, the modern incarnation of the Conservative party which we've come to know since David Cameron became leader is moderately socially liberal while also seeking to reduce state expenditure as part of a programme to close the government's deficit and cut down Britain's debt while achieving growth through free market economics, issues which would find some sympathy in the right or "Orange Book" wing of the Liberal Democrat party.

Junkyard Tom

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They did. There's a good thread on Twitter here explaining how the EU acts as a counterbalance to the US on such matters and how an 'independent' Britain might fare on its own. Here are the first two posts:

People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1

What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2

European aerospace firm Airbus is to take a majority stake in Bombardier's C-Series jet project.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41646795

European based multinational comes to the rescue of Bombardier. How will the DUP spin an 'independent' Britain being good for the north after this? Regardless, the DUP will navigate some sort of bizarre maze of 'logic' to underpin their 'British as Finchley' delusions.

murphaph

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

With respect, I think that this is a very simplistic analysis of the Conservative party. In it's current form, the party is a coalition of classically liberal free marketeers who wish to limit the state as much as possible, socially conservative Christian democrats and one-nation Tories who believe in using the state to help the worst-off in society. Party policies tend to be a compromise between these groups much like Labour has its trade unionists, socialists, communists and market-liberal Blairite centrists.

Generally speaking, the modern incarnation of the Conservative party which we've come to know since David Cameron became leader is moderately socially liberal while also seeking to reduce state expenditure as part of a programme to close the government's deficit and cut down Britain's debt while achieving growth through free market economics, issues which would find some sympathy in the right or "Orange Book" wing of the Liberal Democrat party.

Yeah you have these quite disparate groups forming the 2 major parties. It's all borne out of FPTP. In any other western European democracy many Tories and Labour MPs would be in the same smaller party that better aligns with their convictions.

FPTP effectively railroads unnatural partners together to form at least 2 parties large enough to contest for a majority.

murphaph

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

European aerospace firm Airbus is to take a majority stake in Bombardier's C-Series jet project.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41646795

European based multinational comes to the rescue of Bombardier. How will the DUP spin an 'independent' Britain being good for the north after this? Regardless, the DUP will navigate some sort of bizarre maze of 'logic' to underpin their 'British as Finchley' delusions.

Maybe Airbus could be convinced to move the shorts plant to Dundalk in the event of a hard Brexit lol.

LeinsterDub

That £350m a week will pour into our NHS (Johnson) – until it doesn’t. That the UK will negotiate a trade pact with Angela Merkel in Berlin (David Davis) – until it turns out to be Michel Barnier in Brussels. But never mind, the deal with Brussels will be “one of the easiest in human history” (Liam Fox) – until it isn’t. That, even with no deal looking more and more likely, the government needs draw up no concrete plans, nor set aside any contingency funds (Philip Hammond). That nothing will change for Hungarian or Polish nationals in the UK (Daniel Hannan) – until they are used as human bargaining chips. That Britain can sign 40 trade deals the morning after leaving the European Union (Liam Fox)– all 40 of which Britain already has through the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/17/blame-economic-experts-fantasy-politics-brexit-office-budget-responsibility

For the Pro Brexit folk the above is either misdirection, irrelevant or lies. For the Anti Brexit folk saying we told you so has gotten tedious and they have moved on to how bad will this slow motion car crash be.

murphaph

Even on this thread there is a marked quietness from the few people prepared to defend Brexit as it becomes increasingly indefensible. The fact the UK appears to be half a trillion pounds poorer than was thought up to last week has perhaps put a bit of a dampener on the whole going over the Brexit top with your chums.

Zubeneschamali

Lemming wrote: »

What's even more terrifying is that the UK hasn't even left yet.

Absolutely. Just last week the bad news was that Brexit would cost 400 billion by 2030. This weeks bad news: it already cost 490 billion.

They are so screwed.

Nody

murphaph wrote: »

Even on this thread there is a marked quietness from the few people prepared to defend Brexit as it becomes increasingly indefensible. The fact the UK appears to be half a trillion pounds poorer than was thought up to last week has perhaps put a bit of a dampener on the whole going over the Brexit top with your chums.

No what will really scare them is what will come in Q1 next year.

TheCityUK believes that 75,000 jobs and £8bn to £10bn in annual tax revenues are at risk if the UK crashes out in 2019 without a deal and has to fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Once businesses start moving, there is no reverse gear. It is simply not efficient or economically viable to move operations twice." TheCityUK argues that, to avoid this scenario, an agreement must be reached by the first quarter of 2018 "at the latest".

Now they are a lobby group so likely to inflate but several banks have already flagged for this and even at half their numbers we're talking most of the money sent to EU on a yearly basis gone in one sector alone and the chance of a deal in Q1 2018 is long odds at best...