August 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2017. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

6. Bonus question. On what date will the monthly maximum temperature take place? And at what location? (equal points for these two components, 2 and 1 point superbonus available).

Enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st of August, with penalties of 1 point every three hours late (or portion thereof), to 0300h Thursday 3rd, then increasing to one further point every hour. Two point deductions for any correct bonus answers that are based on data already reported at time of forecast (will apply for example to 1st if you enter at 1800h or later, and guess what may be reported before that).

Good luck, I considered going with the lightning bonus as suggested, but the pattern didn't look too promising for that on a quick glance.

Normal for all values __ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ date loc'n see below

Normal will score points for location of max temp on the basis of climatology, for date it will be 5 points first ten days, 4 11th to 18th, 3 19th to 24th, 2 for 25th to 28th and 1 for 29th to 31st. For location, Shannon, Moore Park, Oak Park, Casement will score five, Dublin, Phoenix Park, Johnstown Castle, Gurteen, Mullingar will score four, various inland stations otherwise will score three, southern coastal stations will score two and northern coastal stations including Mace Head and Belmullet will score one. Ties for date and location will be resolved by double point differentials and best fit to your forecast, but for Normal, ties will be scored as averages of points applicable to each tied value.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 14.7 _ 24.8 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 85 __ 19th, Mt Dillon

Bsal

Bsal ____ 14.6 _ 23.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 96 __ 2nd, Phoenix Park

pauldry

Pauldry____ 14.8 _ 24.4 _ 2.5 _ 122 _ 95 __ 17th, Oak Park

sunflower3

sunflower3_____14.8_____25.1____3.2____107____95_____14th oakpark

200motels

200motels

---

14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 92 __ 19th, Oak Park

dasa29

Dasa29____ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 95 _ 105 __ 15th, Mullingar

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____ 14.4 _ 23.8 _ 5.0 _ 90 _ 85 __ 15th, Oak Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 15.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.6 _ 98 _ 105 _ 21st, Shannon

Lumi

Lumi ____ 15.0 _ 24.7 _ 2.8 _ 110 _ 95 __ 17th, Shannon Airport

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 2.4 _ 133 _ 89 _ 23rd, Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.3 ___ 25.0 ___ 4.00 ___ 106 ___ 89 ___ 14th ___ Shannon.

waterways

waterways__ 15.2 _ 24.3 _ 1.3 _ 120 _ 97 __  17th Casement

John mac

johnmac ____ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.1_ 110 _ 97 _ 22nd, pheonix park

Joe Public

Joe Public __ 15.3 _ 24.9 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 105 __ 14th Oak Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.3 _ 107 _ 97 _ 14 Phoenix Park

rameire

Rameire ____ 15.2 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 95 __ 12th, Oak Park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn __ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 120 __ 10 Phoenix Park Dublin.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.7 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 30th, Shannon

mrskinner

Skinner........14.9.......24.9.......4.5........110.......102.......Phoenix 15.

Rikand

Rikand ___ 15.5 ____ 27.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 90 ___ 120 ___ Johnstown Castle 20th

pauldry

Warmest Day so far pheonix Park 20.3c August 1st ....to last for one day:)

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2017


FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max temp date loc'n

Rikand ______ (-3) __15.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 20 _ Johnstown C
M.T. Cranium _______15.4 _ 26.7 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 30 _ Shannon
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.6 _ 098 _ 105 ____ 21 _ Shannon
Dasa29____________15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 15 _ Mullingar
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 106 _ 089 ____ 14 _ Shannon
Joe Public _________ 15.3 _ 24.9 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
Rameire ___________15.2 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 095 ____ 12 _ Oak Park
waterways _________15.2 _ 24.3 _ 1.3 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 17 _ Casement

NormaL ___________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.9 _ 100 _ 100 ____ (see note in post 1)

Tae laidir __________15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.3 _ 107 _ 097 ____ 14 _ Phoenix Park
johnmac __________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 22 _ Phoenix Park

Con Sensus ________15.0 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 15 _ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 2.4 _ 133 _ 089 ____ 23 _ Oak Park
Lumi _____________ 15.0 _ 24.7 _ 2.8 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Shannon
200motels _________14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 19 _ Oak Park
MrSkinner ___ (-2) __14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 15 _ Phoenix Park
Jpmarn ___________ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 10 _ Phoenix Park
sunflower3 ________ 14.8 _ 25.1 _ 3.2 _ 107 _ 095 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
Pauldry ___________ 14.8 _ 24.4 _ 2.5 _ 122 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Oak Park
sryanbruen ________ 14.7 _ 24.8 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 19 _ Mt Dillon
Bsal ______________14.6 _ 23.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 096 _____ 2 _ Phoenix Park
mickger844posts ____14.4 _ 23.8 _ 5.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 15 _ Oak Park
_________________________________________________________

For the warmest day and location, Oak Park was picked by 7/20, Phoenix Park by 5 and Shannon by 4. Casement, Mt Dillon, Mullingar and Johnstown Castle were picked by one person in each case.

Con Sensus will score 5,4,3,2 for location based on those picks being the actual location, and one if it's somewhere else.

NormaL scoring for the bonus is explained in the first post.

As to scoring your forecast, warmest day will determine the scoring of locations but if some place does better than top five on that day, on some other day, then it will get into the list instead. If we are all wrong on location of top three then scoring will start from 3/5 with whatever choices are correct (don't think this is going to happen unless there's a wild southeasterly event). As to scoring the dates, that will be solely determined by the maximum, and separation by days. A close second will not generate any mini-curves of scores unless it's within 0.2 then it will score off 3 points. In the event of a tie (for warmest day, different locations and dates) your better score counts.

Our group consensus appears to be just slightly pessimistic about August, marginally cooler than average, especially in terms of warm spells, and a bit on the moist and dreary side of normal, but with a few somewhat optimistic outliers.

Good luck, we have the full contingent of regular forecasters but will add any stragglers to the table.

Joe Public

" Max rain date loc'n " ???

sryanbruen

Joe Public wrote: »

" Max rain date loc'n " ???

The maximum daily rainfall for August 2017 along with its date and loc'n aka location.

John mac

should be max temp.. :cool:

sryanbruen

John mac wrote: »

should be max temp.. :cool:

Oh I see

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for spotting that, as I mentioned in the July thread, I was feeling "under the weather" earlier, a lot better now, heavy smoke pollution and heat are (were) combining to wreak havoc on my fragile bod.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 14.6, which was 0.9 deg below average for the period.

PRC was 94% of normal.

SUN was 100.8% of normal.

MAX and MIN have not really begun their serious work yet.

Bsal

What has been the max temp so far?

pauldry

I think 22.7c or so in Pheonix Park on 2nd or 3rd