August 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

21.9 on 2nd at PP is highest not including Thursday 10th.

Feel pretty sure this won't be in the running by 31st.

pauldry

Yeah the 31st looks like a decent day

M.T. Cranium

Min of 5.9 at Casement on Thursday morning.

I am going to be away from 15th to 22nd, might have some internet access but will be looking for some forecasters to step in, and although I may make some notes on MAX and MIN values, I probably won't be posting them.

Therefore, could some of you perhaps note any new values of Max and Min in that interval, and in the case of Max, list the top three for the contest scoring? This may save me some tedious work later, going through daily data on the website.

There may have been a new max on Friday, a few early data points are just below the current max.

pauldry

Casement n Oak Park made 21.5c so they are 2nd

No more maxs while your away MT

Relatively chilly 16 to 19c

A 4c possible tonight for min

pauldry

Claremorris 3.5c

Did mt dillon or markree get near?

Nope!

M.T. Cranium

After the second week ...

IMT down to 14.34, after a very cool week (14.1, 1.4 below average).

MAX 21.9, MIN 3.5 so far.

PRC now just above normal (102%) with the second week 109% -- a majority of stations were below average slightly but yesterday's deluge in Leinster pushed Casement well over 200% and Oak Park to that value.

SUN remains very close to average at 99%, this past week was 97.2%.

... Away now for a week, should be back just in time to post third week updates ...

Tae laidir

Have a nice and well deserved break, MT.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, back safe and sound from a fabulous holiday, eclipse view was stunning with totally clear skies. Will post a description later in the eclipse thread.

So from what I can gather, it stayed cool most of the third week, saw a max of 23.2 for Shannon yesterday, is that the highest?

IMT still way down at 14.24 C, third week 14.4 (0.7 below normal).

PRC up to 120% after a wet third week that was 157 per cent of normal.

SUN now at 95.9% with the third week a relatively normal 89.1%.

Jpmarn

I believe 23.2 c seems to be the highest temperature in this disappointing month of August. Well done Shannon Airport.

M.T. Cranium

Jpmarn wrote: »

I believe 23.2 c seems to be the highest temperature in this disappointing month of August. Well done Shannon Airport.

If that held up DOCARCH would have it nailed for 12 points in the bonus. However, DOCARCH guessed a max of 28 deg and in that component, Bsal (23.7) and mickger844points (23.8) lead the way so far.

However, guidance suggests Sunday or Monday (28th) could be warmer. If so, your host will win on date (30th), not sure what location the models are favouring, have to wait and see on that, but I think it will hit 25 or possibly 26 one of those days. The second latest guess was 23rd. I thought everybody knew that summer only starts when the kids are going back to school?

M.T. Cranium

The warmest IMT forecast was a relatively modest 15.5 (from Rikand) and to get to that end point the last ten days need to average 18.3. To reach consensus (15.0) we would need a last ten day average of 16.7 C. My estimate from the guidance is 15.7 and this will leave the month near 14.6 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday's dull warmth managed to boost Phoenix Park (22.9) into second place and Oak Park stays third but almost equalled the 22.5 they managed on 21st with 22.4, not sure how today will work out. Rest of August looks too cool to register for bonus or max at present.

Week four report to come tomorrow but IMT is currently at 14.7 C.

Bsal is mounting up quite a total score despite going 0/5 on warmest day.

M.T. Cranium

Week four report ...

IMT still on 14.7 after a week that averaged 15.6, 0.7 above average for a change. This will probably finish on 14.5 or 14.6.

PRC is down somewhat to 112% with this past week coming in at 88% but without Malin Head's four times normal amount, that would have been a report saying 100% and 50% roughly. Oak Park had only 6% of its normal amount. This will add about enough to stay close to 112 to perhaps 115 per cent at the final whistle.

SUN is down also to 86.1% after quite a dull week at 56.5% (especially cloudy in Munster). This won't recover much and may finish around 88 to 90 per cent.

The MAX failed to advance on the 28th (see previous post about 27th), so we can pretty much assume that 23.2 on the 21st is going to usher in the always welcome mercy rule. MIN at 3.0 may not be fully safe if it were to get very chilly by midnight Thursday perhaps.

So I won't post any provisional scores until Friday as we have to wait for several days to get the MS but I will have a better idea of IMT, PRC and SUN by then. On my estimates, and assuming no lower MIN, Bsal has 87 to 89 points, Con Sensus not far from 80, and I can see a few others in the low 70s give or take. NormaL appears to be headed for mid 60s where a lot of our scores will be.

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on a chilly 14.5 C.

PRC finished at 105%, without Malin Head would have been 98%. Belmullet the only other location significantly above average, most of our eleven sites were very close to the 90-100 per cent range.

SUN appears to have done well in the last three days and I will estimate a finishing value of 93% of normal.

MAX appears to be 23.2 and MIN 3.0 (last night cooled to 4.3 by midnight at one location, not quite changing the value established earlier).

Bonus remains 21st at Shannon.

Provisional scoring will have to do until 5th because I will be on the road here on the 4th (Labour Day holiday weekend) so even if MS is available I won't see it until Tuesday. So will post these scores now and revise if necessary on the fifth. Annual update will follow then, you can work out how you're doing by looking back at the July thread.

Provisional scoring for August 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus

Estimated values ___14.5_23.2_3.0_105_093_____21_Shannon __ TOTALS

Bsal ______________24 _ 19*_ 20 _ 10 _ 09 _____01 + 04 ________87
Lumi _____________ 20 _ 15*_ 18 _ 13 _ 10 ____ 04 + 05 + 1 _____86
sunflower3 ________ 22 _ 10*_ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 80
Pauldry ___________ 22 _ 16*_ 15 _ 09 _ 10 ____ 04 + 03 ________ 79

Con Sensus ________20 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 77

200motels _________21 _ 08*_ 18 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 04 + 03 ________ 74
Joe Public _________ 17 _ 13*_ 17 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 74
johnmac __________ 20 _ 02*_ 19 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 05 + 04 + 1 _____73
sryanbruen ________ 23 _ 14*_ 10 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 04 + 01 ________ 73
Rameire ___________18 _ 10*_ 14 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 02 + 03 ________ 71

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 03*_ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 03 + 05 ________ 71

Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 11*_ 10 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 03 + 05 ________ 69
Jpmarn ___________ 22 _ 07*_ 15 _ 12 _ 05 ____ 02 + 04 ________ 67
mickger844posts ____24 _ 18*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 66
MrSkinner ___ (-2) __21 _ 13*_ 05 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 + 04 __ 67-2 = 65
DOCARCH _________ 17 _ 00*_ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 05 + 05 + 2 _____64
waterways _________18 _ 17*_ 03 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 04 + 02 ________ 63
Dacogawa _________20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 06 _ 09 ____ 05 + 03 ________ 61
Tae laidir __________19 _ 04*_ 07 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 03 + 04 ________ 60
Dasa29____________17 _ 01*_ 10 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 03 + 01 ________ 52
M.T. Cranium ______ 16 _ 04*_ 00 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 02 + 05 ________ 48
Rikand _____ (-3) __ 15 _ 03*_ 10 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 05 + 01 __ 49-3 = 46

* minimum progression required for scoring MAX.

Congrats to Bsal and Lumi for what will probably hold up as high scores, and to all those who beat Con or at least NormaL ... in general, a higher scoring month, even the lowest score is probably one of the highest low scores we've seen. This chart to be amended if necessary on 5th, followed by annual report update.

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Actual forecasts

Note: in the original table I appear to have transposed min values for normal and consensus (0.1 different, corrected here).

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max temp date loc'n

Rikand ______ (-3) __15.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 20 _ Johnstown C
M.T. Cranium _______15.4 _ 26.7 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 30 _ Shannon
DOCARCH _________ 15.3 _ 28.1 _ 3.6 _ 098 _ 105 ____ 21 _ Shannon
Dasa29____________15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 095 _ 105 ____ 15 _ Mullingar
Kindred Spirit ______ 15.3 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 106 _ 089 ____ 14 _ Shannon
Joe Public _________ 15.3 _ 24.9 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
Rameire ___________15.2 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 108 _ 095 ____ 12 _ Oak Park
waterways _________15.2 _ 24.3 _ 1.3 _ 120 _ 097 ____ 17 _ Casement

NormaL ___________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ (see note in post 1)

Tae laidir __________15.1 _ 26.7 _ 4.3 _ 107 _ 097 ____ 14 _ Phoenix Park
johnmac __________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 22 _ Phoenix Park

Con Sensus ________15.0 _ 25.1 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 15 _ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 15.0 _ 27.1 _ 2.4 _ 133 _ 089 ____ 23 _ Oak Park
Lumi _____________ 15.0 _ 24.7 _ 2.8 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Shannon
200motels _________14.9 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 19 _ Oak Park
MrSkinner ___ (-2) __14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 15 _ Phoenix Park
Jpmarn ___________ 14.8 _ 25.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 10 _ Phoenix Park
sunflower3 ________ 14.8 _ 25.1 _ 3.2 _ 107 _ 095 ____ 14 _ Oak Park
Pauldry ___________ 14.8 _ 24.4 _ 2.5 _ 122 _ 095 ____ 17 _ Oak Park
sryanbruen ________ 14.7 _ 24.8 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 19 _ Mt Dillon
Bsal ______________14.6 _ 23.7 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 096 _____ 2 _ Phoenix Park
mickger844posts ____14.4 _ 23.8 _ 5.0 _ 090 _ 085 ____ 15 _ Oak Park
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M.T. Cranium

Okay then, checked the numbers in the MS, first thing I found was that my idea of the MIN (3.0) had crept into my mind for no apparent reason since the post on the thread during my holiday correctly said 3.5. So that has led to a need to rescore the MIN ... also SUN worked out to be 88 rather than 93 per cent according to the official totals. That is going to change most scores by 1 up or down.

So here are the revised scores, my apologies for the MIN confusion.



Final scoring for August 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus

Confirmed values ___14.5_23.2_3.5_105_088_____21_Shannon __ TOTALS

Bsal ______________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 10 _ 08 _____01 + 04 ________81
Lumi _____________ 20 _ 15*_ 13 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 04 + 05 + 1 _____80
sunflower3 ________ 22 _ 10*_ 17 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 78
Rameire ___________18 _ 10*_ 19 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 02 + 03 ________ 75
Kindred Spirit ______ 17 _ 11*_ 15 _ 15 _ 10 ____ 03 + 05 ________ 75
Pauldry ___________ 22 _ 16*_ 10 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 04 + 03 ________ 73
mickger844posts ____24 _ 18*_ 05 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 72

Con Sensus ________20 _ 10*_ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 71

johnmac __________ 20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 05 + 04 + 1 _____69
sryanbruen ________ 23 _ 14*_ 05 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 04 + 01 ________ 69
MrSkinner ___ (-2) __21 _ 13*_ 10 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 03 + 04 __ 71-2 = 69
DOCARCH _________ 17 _ 00*_ 19 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 05 + 05 + 2 _____68
200motels _________21 _ 08*_ 13 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 04 + 03 ________ 68
Joe Public _________ 17 _ 13*_ 12 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 03 + 03 ________ 68

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 03*_ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 + 05 ________ 66

Tae laidir __________19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 03 + 04 ________ 64
Jpmarn ___________ 22 _ 07*_ 10 _ 12 _ 04 ____ 02 + 04 ________ 61
waterways _________18 _ 17*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 04 + 02 ________ 59
Dacogawa _________20 _ 02*_ 11 _ 06 _ 10 ____ 05 + 03 ________ 57
Dasa29____________17 _ 01*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 03 + 01 ________ 56
M.T. Cranium ______ 16 _ 04*_ 00 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 02 + 05 ________ 47
Rikand _____ (-3) __ 15 _ 03*_ 05 _ 10 _ 04 ____ 05 + 01 __ 43-3 = 40

* minimum progression required for scoring MAX.

The error that I made with MIN has pushed several other people into close proximity to the two leaders from the provisional table, but they are still slightly ahead. So congrats to all those who managed to finish ahead of Con Sensus this month.

Annual update will have to wait until this evening (your time) as I am too tired to do any further work (hot here and I was driving quite a bit earlier). So look for that, plus the summer component of the four seasons and an update on how that's going.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to August 2017

The first rank in brackets (column 2) is your rank from last month's table to show changes in the order of scoring. After the "best 6 of 8" another rank in brackets refers to your ranking in that scoring race. This portion continues on from the change made last month and will become the primary table-ordering rank next month after September scores are in. For now your best 6 of 8 rank will appear at the end of the row. New this month, there's a plus or minus (or zero) to show how your ranking changed from July. Plus means you moved up that many positions, negative means you moved down. A half unit here means that you moved out of a tie, for example Bsal and MrSkinner were tied 7th after July (in best 5 of 7) and now they are 4th and 8th so Bsal is up 3.5 ranks and Mr Skinner is down 0.5 ranks. Ties are ignored in the former rank for total score (second entry in each row). So that stat is not a change but an absolute ranking value from last month. This won't appear next month when the ranking system changes to best 7 of 9. The total for 9 months will appear at the end of the row with its ranking (but no indicator of how that changed).


rank/ FORECASTER _____ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG __ TOTAL _____ Best 6 of 8 (rank)

01 (01) DOCARCH _______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 ___ 532 ______ 425 (1) 0
02 (02) pauldry _________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 ___ 527 ______ 411 (5) +1

02 (02) Con Sensus _____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 ___ 527 ______ 407 (6) +1

03 (02) mickger844posts_ 74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 ___ 526 ______ 417 (3) 0
04 (05) Bsal ___________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 ___ 520 ______ 413 (4) +3.5
05 (04) Tae laidir _______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 ___ 510 ______ 404 (7) -2
06 (06) John mac _______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 ___ 505 ______ 392 (11) +2
07 (07) Rameire ________ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 ___ 501 ______ 393 (10) +3
08 (08) MrSkinner _______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 ___ 492 ______ 401 (8) -0.5
09 (10) Kindred Spirit ____54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 ___ 491 ______ 388 (12) +3
10 (12) 200motels ______ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 ___ 473 ______ 394 (9) +2.5

11 (13) NormaL _________43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 ___ 469 ______ 385 (13) -0.5

11 (14) sryanbruen ______43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 ___ 463 ______ 381 (13) +3
12 (09) Rikand _________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 ___ 462 ______ 376 (14) -4
t13 (11) M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 ___ 456 ______ 366 (17) -5.5
t13 (13) Dacogawa ______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 ___ 456 ______ 410 (6) -4
15 (17) sunflower3 ______46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 ___ 453 ______ 365 (18) +2
16 (16) Joe Public _______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 ___ 449 ______ 368 (16) +2
17 (15) Dasa29 _________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 ___ 444 ______ 350 (20) -1
18 (17) waterways ______ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 ___ 434 ______ 373 (15) -1
19 (19) Jpmarn _________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 ___ 428 ______ 363 (19) -2
20 (20) Lumi ___________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 ___ 423 ______ 423 (2) +2


21 (21) JCX BXC _______ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
22 (22) sdanseo _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- ___ 164
23 (23) waterjohn ______--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
24 (--) Gonzo _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- ____ 74

(best of occasionals) ____ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- ___ 360 _______ 360 (20)
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After August, DOCARCH takes over the lead and Pauldry moves into second and also now ahead of Con Sensus overall, although several are still ahead of Con in the best 6 of 8 category.

The only forecaster who did not use August in the best 6 of 8 was Rikand who pulled in 14 extra points from a previous 2nd low of 54.

Just for fun, I am showing a new entry, best of occasionals, to see how the part-time or occasional entrants are doing relative to the field. So far, about middle of the pack although no entry in August, they have one from Tazio for September but in danger of dropping out any month that we don't get one or more "new" or part time forecasters. The occasionals are ranked between 19th and 20th in our regular list after being between 11th and 12th after July.

FOUR SEASONS UPDATE to FOLLOW ...

M.T. Cranium

Four seasons update -- Summer 2017

Summer 2017 scores are the total for June, July and August. This table shows the point-getters in the summer, followed by an updated total scoring table that is now three-quarters of the way to the final rankings.

FORECASTER ________ Summer total ___ points

Bsal ___________________ 228 ________ 10

Dacogawa ______________ 218 _________ 7
DOCARCH ______________ 213 _________ 6
Pauldry ________________ 209 _________ 5
Mickger844posts _________207 _________ 4
Rameire ________________205 _________ 3
200motels ______________202 __________2

Kindred Spirit ___________ 199 _________ 1
MrSkinner ______________ 197 _________ 1
(Con Sensus ____________ 197 __________1)
sunflower3 ______________187 _________ 1


Con Sensus and NormaL score points but do not bump any forecaster with lower points from the scoring table. 10 points for first place in each season, then 7 down to 2 points for 2nd to 7th place, 1 point each for 8th to 10th.
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scoring zero for fewer points (for those who played all three months)

John mac 186, sryanbruen 183, Tae laidir + MTC 182, waterways 181, (NormaL 173), Joe Public 169, Dasa29 167, JPmarn 155, Rikand 150

Lumi was on pace to score well but missed one month.

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Updated Four Seasons total scoring for winter 2016-17, spring and summer 2017

FORECASTER _____ Winter ____ Spring _____ Summer ____ TOTAL to date


Tae laidir __________ 7 ________ 10 _________ 0 __________ 17 ( 1)
Pauldry ___________10 _________ 1 _________ 5 __________ 16 ( 2 )
DOCARCH __________2 _________ 6 _________ 6 __________ 14 ( 3)

Con Sensus ________ 3 ________ 10 _________ 1 __________ 14 (t3)

Bsal ______________ 0 _________ 2 ________ 10 ___________12 ( 4)
Mickger844posts ____ 1 _________ 4 _________ 4 ___________ 9 ( 5)
Dacogawa __________0 _________ 0 _________ 7 ___________ 7 (t6)
John mac __________ 0 _________ 7 _________ 0 ___________ 7 (t6)
MrSkinner __________5 _________ 1 _________ 1 ___________ 7 (t6)
Rikand ____________ 1 _________ 5 _________ 0 ___________ 6 (t9)
Jpmarn ____________6 _________ 0 _________ 0 ___________ 6 (t9)
Lumi ______________5 _________ 0 _________ 0 ___________ 5 (11)

NormaL ___________ 3 _________ 2 _________ 0 ____________5 (t11)

Rameire ___________ 0 _________ 1 _________ 3 ___________ 4 (t12)
sunflower3 _________ 3 _________ 0 _________ 1 ___________4 (t12)
Joe Public __________ 0 _________ 3 _________ 0 ___________ 3 (t14)
200motels __________1 _________ 0 _________ 2 ___________ 3 (t14)
Kindred Spirit _______ 1 _________ 0 _________ 1 ___________ 2 (16)

M.T. Cranium _______ 0 _________ 0 _________ 0 ____________0
Dasa29 ____________ 0 _________ 0 _________ 0 ___________ 0
sryanbruen _________ 0 _________ 0 _________ 0 ___________ 0
waterways _________ 0 __________0 _________ 0 ___________ 0
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Tae laidir continues to lead despite being shut out for summer points, Pauldry and DOCARCH are close behind together with Con Sensus. Bsal moved up to fourth by winning the summer portion of this contest.

Final summary will be after the November contest.


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