Irish Border and Brexit

First Up

murphaph wrote:

Holyhead Port is very concerned that a lot of NI traffic will begin taking the slower route via Scotland because of customs. There was an item about this on (I think) Newsnight quite recently.

There is a Belfast - Liverpool ferry.

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

There is a Belfast - Liverpool ferry.

You know how long it takes?

First Up

murphaph wrote:

You know how long it takes?

Eight hours.

solodeogloria

murphaph wrote: »

Nope. Most NI freight going to England goes via Dublin. Going via Scotland means many miles of single carriageway roads before getting to the main road south.

Compare this to the dual carriageway/motorway route from beyond Ballymena all the way to Dublin port through the port tunnel, then ferry over and straight on to the A55 North Wales Expressway (motorway in all but name) all the way to the M6.

Holyhead Port is very concerned that a lot of NI traffic will begin taking the slower route via Scotland because of customs. There was an item about this on (I think) Newsnight quite recently.

Good evening!

Do you have any statistics for this? My point is that there are very good ways of avoiding entering the Republic for freight, many of which are already used. Heysham in Lancashire isn't that much further for UK traffic than Holyhead is. It is further north where Holyhead is further west. Heysham is on the M6 near Lancaster.

Liverpool is also a good option, because although the ferry takes longer, it saves the time of travel from Belfast to Dublin and from Holyhead to Liverpool on road. Holyhead to Liverpool by road takes about 2 hours having done it myself fairly recently along the A55. Then Belfast to Dublin takes an hour and a half. Plus the ferry time and you nearly have 8 hours anyway.

You can be guaranteed that if the European Union erects customs controls on the border both in Ireland and in Dublin from Holyhead that nobody in Northern Ireland would take this route.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Sam Russell

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Do you have any statistics for this? My point is that there are very good ways of avoiding entering the Republic for freight, many of which are already used. Heysham in Lancashire isn't that much further for UK traffic than Holyhead is. It is further north where Holyhead is further west. Heysham is on the M6 near Lancaster.

Liverpool is also a good option, because although the ferry takes longer, it saves the time of travel from Belfast to Dublin and from Holyhead to Liverpool on road. Holyhead to Liverpool by road takes about 2 hours having done it myself fairly recently along the A55. Then Belfast to Dublin takes an hour and a half. Plus the ferry time and you nearly have 8 hours anyway.

You can be guaranteed that if the European Union erects customs controls on the border both in Ireland and in Dublin from Holyhead that nobody in Northern Ireland would take this route.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Using Google from Derry to Dover, it takes 11 hrs 39 mins via Holyhead, but 11 hrs 48 mins via Larne Cairnryan and onto the A75 then onto the M1.

So not much difference. Driving time is about 1 hr extra via Scotland, roads maybe not as good. Congestion on the M6 south to Birmingham is nasty.

It might be a good choice for NI sourced traffic to avoid customs but maybe not to avoid an invisible border.

solodeogloria

Good evening!

Google won't show you the Lancashire option via Heysham or the Liverpool option possibly. For a few minutes and avoiding customs Northern Ireland will be relatively unaffected.

For intra-UK transport staying out of the Republic is the obvious choice if the EU insists on a hard border.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Sam Russell

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Google won't show you the Lancashire option via Heysham or the Liverpool option possibly. For a few minutes and avoiding customs Northern Ireland will be relatively unaffected.

For intra-UK transport staying out of the Republic is the obvious choice if the EU UK insists on a hard border.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

It will be the UK that insists on a hard border.

It is the UK that insists on leaving the EU.
It is the UK that insists on leaving the the single market.
It is the UK that insists on leaving the customs union.

So It is the UK that insists on leaving the open border that exists and forcing a hard border.

But of course, it is the EU's fault.

Thomas__

Some news regarding the border issue:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0907/902871-brexit-border-eu/

Interesting in all this is this quotation:

Mr Barnier said he was concerned over the UK government's position on Ireland, which appeared to envisage the EU suspending the application of its laws, single market and customs union at a new external border.
"What I see in the UK paper on Ireland and Northern Ireland worries me," he told a Brussels press conference.
"The UK wants to use Ireland as a kind of test case for the future EU/UK customs relations. This will not happen.
"Creativity and flexibility can't be at the expense of the integrity of the single market and customs union.
"This would be not fair for Ireland and it would not be fair for the European Union." 

Always trying to gamble, this present UK govt. Won´t pay off for them.

paul2013

Please don't ban from the thread. But are the EU and Ireland (to a degree) to blame for BREXIT?

We voted against the Lisbon treaty and we were made vote again to get the right result which wasn't democracy this contained the exit article about leaving the union and now BREXIT is happening and it's not going to reversed even though the British public see there financial institutions leaving for mainland Europe while I think Ireland will be next out of Europe as we are being used as a muffin for England's benefits of leaving. The English won't even agree to joint authority in the North. So does this mean a Hard BREXIT at the end of the day when BREXIT talks conclude without the trade deal that England seeks? As Wales are looking closely at Independence like Scotland.

oscarBravo

paul2013 wrote: »

We voted against the Lisbon treaty and we were made vote again to get the right result which wasn't democracy...

We weren't made vote again. Nobody forced the Irish government to re-run the referendum, and nobody forced any Irish voter to vote at all, never mind in a particular way.

The idea that voting once is democratic, while voting twice is undemocratic, is ridiculous.

...this contained the exit article about leaving the union...

Yes, at the UK's insistence. The fact that all the members agreed to the existence of an exit mechanism doesn't make it anyone's fault other than the UK's that they decided to use it.

knipex

paul2013 wrote: »

Please don't ban from the thread. But are the EU and Ireland (to a degree) to blame for BREXIT?

We voted against the Lisbon treaty and we were made vote again to get the right result which wasn't democracy this contained the exit article about leaving the union and now BREXIT is happening and it's not going to reversed even though the British public see there financial institutions leaving for mainland Europe while I think Ireland will be next out of Europe as we are being used as a muffin for England's benefits of leaving. The English won't even agree to joint authority in the North. So does this mean a Hard BREXIT at the end of the day when BREXIT talks conclude without the trade deal that England seeks? As Wales are looking closely at Independence like Scotland.

ehhhhhhhhhhhhh..

I am not really sure what you are saying ??

I don't think the brexit results will be overturned anytime soon. No one in the UK is arguing for the referendum to be rerun..

I have no idea what you are saying re Ireland begin used as a Muffin ?? but I cannot see Ireland leaving the EU to follow the UK..

Chips Lovell

I too would like to find out what being "used as a muffin" means. It sounds naughty!

Fratton Fred

Since when were Wales looking at independence?

They voted to leave the eu, leaving the uk would be suicide.

View

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Since when were Wales looking at independence?

They voted to leave the eu, leaving the uk would be suicide.

Apparently the Welsh have taken a liking to beheaving as lemmings and want to hurtle themselves off a second economic & political "cliff". They now regard all talk about it being "suicide" as just being "project fear" and secure in the knowledge that they'll all have an extra £530 million for each of their local NHS hospitals if they do so, they can't wait to do it. :-)

paul2013

Ireland will be next out of Europe as we are being used as a muffin for England's benefits of leaving the EU.

What I mean is why is England using Ireland as an excuse that we somehow caused Brexit and as I think the whole UK Parliament should come over here and see how an invisible border should remain that way.

knipex

paul2013 wrote: »

Ireland will be next out of Europe as we are being used as a muffin for England's benefits of leaving the EU.

What I mean is why is England using Ireland as an excuse that we somehow caused Brexit and as I think the whole UK Parliament should come over here and see how an invisible border should remain that way.

How the hell could Ireland be accused of causing Brexit ? Its not that long since politicians were told to keep their noses out of UK business when they advocated a no vote in the referendum..

An invisible border with the UK (which includes Northern Ireland) outside of the customs union is a fantasy..

What does 'used as a muffin' mean?

Fratton Fred

Deleted User wrote: »

What does 'used as a muffin' mean?

puts a whole new meaning to "Muffin the Mule" I guess :eek:

Jim2007

paul2013 wrote: »

We voted against the Lisbon treaty and we were made vote again to get the right result which wasn't democracy...

The Irish constitution allows the government to negotiate on our behalf and no more. Do you understand how negotiations work or do you think one can only accept or reject the first offer and it ends there???

You were not required to vote on the same offer twice, you were required to consider two offers. The voters rejected the first, but accepted the second. That is how our democracy works.

Now if you can show where in the constitution it prevents us from reconsidering an issue and that the two offers were exactly the same, then get back to us, otherwise keep this nonsense to yourself!

Water John

See Boris says, it should be easy to come up with a solution for the Irish border.

Impetus

Until the Cork - France fiber optic link is operational, Ireland's connections with the rest of the world are all routed via southern England. This adds a hard Brexit risk (if Britain was denied from carrying telecommunications traffic to EU member states), route diversity risk (putting all one's eggs in one basket) and terrorism risk (should terrorists operating in GB take to blowing up fiber stations rather than railway stations.) To some extent it is similar to the airline risks of a hard Brexit.

As far as I can see there has been little progress on the Ireland France Cable 1 (IFC-1) project since 2016. This leaves all parts of Ireland exposed with lower internet connectivity bandwidth, higher latency on IP traffic to the rest of Europe, and has GDPR risks in terms of traffic security and privacy.

http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/content-tracks/design-build/cork-emerges-as-new-irish-data-center-cluster/97407.fullarticle

The Cush

Impetus wrote: »

As far as I can see there has been little progress on the Ireland France Cable 1 (IFC-1) project since 2016. This leaves all parts of Ireland exposed with lower internet connectivity bandwidth, higher latency on IP traffic to the rest of Europe, and has GDPR risks in terms of traffic security and privacy.

http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/content-tracks/design-build/cork-emerges-as-new-irish-data-center-cluster/97407.fullarticle

More recent update - http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/ireland-france-subsea-cable-announces-fergus-innes-as-managing-director-2232069.htm

Junkyard Tom

Well it looks like the peace process is on life-support so we might be looking at some sort of internationalisation of the northern Brexit issue.

This is undeniably the fault of the DUP, they want to be 'British' but they don't want the Irish in the north to enjoy rights the British in Britain have. They're freaking out over investigations into security force collusion and participation in murder during the troubles.

The DUP were pro-Brexit and now that they've been surprised by it they're determined try to chain the northeast of Ireland to Britain, consequences be damned. Their rotten coalition with the Tories has emboldened their utter delusions about the north being as British as Finchley and have threatened to walk away from assembly talks if the Irish co-grantors of the GFA open their mouths...

The DUP have made the north ungovernable - what now for the British border in Ireland?

Thomas__

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Well it looks like the peace process is on life-support so we might be looking at some sort of internationalisation of the northern Brexit issue.

This is undeniably the fault of the DUP, they want to be 'British' but they don't want the Irish in the north to enjoy rights the British in Britain have. They're freaking out over investigations into security force collusion and participation in murder during the troubles.

The DUP were pro-Brexit and now that they've been surprised by it they're determined try to chain the northeast of Ireland to Britain, consequences be damned. Their rotten coalition with the Tories has emboldened their utter delusions about the north being as British as Finchley and have threatened to walk away from assembly talks if the Irish co-grantors of the GFA open their mouths...

The DUP have made the north ungovernable - what now for the British border in Ireland?

One must hope that the Duppers don´t prevail as nobody in the EU wants that:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0920/906100-brexit/

Verhofstadt says a hard border would be a 'disaster'

He´s right.

FrancieBrady

The 'disaster' that is ongoing is Britain playing fast and lose with Ireland again.

For May to allow the DUP into a position of power was so totally irresponsible as to be almost criminal.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Well it looks like the peace process is on life-support so we might be looking at some sort of internationalisation of the northern Brexit issue.

This is undeniably the fault of the DUP, they want to be 'British' but they don't want the Irish in the north to enjoy rights the British in Britain have. They're freaking out over investigations into security force collusion and participation in murder during the troubles.

The DUP were pro-Brexit and now that they've been surprised by it they're determined try to chain the northeast of Ireland to Britain, consequences be damned. Their rotten coalition with the Tories has emboldened their utter delusions about the north being as British as Finchley and have threatened to walk away from assembly talks if the Irish co-grantors of the GFA open their mouths...

The DUP have made the north ungovernable - what now for the British border in Ireland?

We have been through this before on this thread and the economics show that Northern Ireland would suffer much more if there was a hard border down the Irish Sea than if the current six counties border was a hard one.

It is a choice economically between a bad outcome (a border between North and South) and a disastrous outcome (a border in the Irish Sea). Only a masochist would argue for an Irish Sea border.

Thomas__

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'disaster' that is ongoing is Britain playing fast and lose with Ireland again.

For May to allow the DUP into a position of power was so totally irresponsible as to be almost criminal.

Quite so and the money deal is about to become a matter for the Commons. Good example for how far some people go in order to remain in power. That´s what corrupts politics and always has.

Thomas__

blanch152 wrote: »

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Well it looks like the peace process is on life-support so we might be looking at some sort of internationalisation of the northern Brexit issue.

This is undeniably the fault of the DUP, they want to be 'British' but they don't want the Irish in the north to enjoy rights the British in Britain have. They're freaking out over investigations into security force collusion and participation in murder during the troubles.

The DUP were pro-Brexit and now that they've been surprised by it they're determined try to chain the northeast of Ireland to Britain, consequences be damned. Their rotten coalition with the Tories has emboldened their utter delusions about the north being as British as Finchley and have threatened to walk away from assembly talks if the Irish co-grantors of the GFA open their mouths...

The DUP have made the north ungovernable - what now for the British border in Ireland?

We have been through this before on this thread and the economics show that Northern Ireland would suffer much more if there was a hard border down the Irish Sea than if the current six counties border was a hard one.

It is a choice economically between a bad outcome (a border between North and South) and a disastrous outcome (a border in the Irish Sea). Only a masochist would argue for an Irish Sea border.

NI will suffer from Brexit one way or another and "thanks" to the DUP, they´ll make sure that it does by going along with the diehard Brexiteers who aim for a hard Brexit. I don´t think that whether the border is a land one or a sea won will be much of a difference, apart from the threat this border issues poses to the peace process in NI.

Although I am always suspicious on SF and see them from a critical angle, it´d be better if the DUP had lost more in the last GE and SF had won more cos such a result had deprived Mrs May from her evil "coalition partner" and she had been forced to resign and call another GE because of a hung parliament and no ability of forming a new government, due to the fact that Mrs Corbyn has always refused to go into any coalition no matter with whom. But be it as it is, the hard times are ahead and the Brits will have to go through it, whether they like it or not. The only thing that remains to do is to see to it that the Republic of Ireland suffers as less from it as possible and that alone will be some hard work anyway.

murphaph

blanch152 wrote: »

We have been through this before on this thread and the economics show that Northern Ireland would suffer much more if there was a hard border down the Irish Sea than if the current six counties border was a hard one.

It is a choice economically between a bad outcome (a border between North and South) and a disastrous outcome (a border in the Irish Sea). Only a masochist would argue for an Irish Sea border.

This is definitely true according to the current figures. Brexit without a deal will be incredibly damaging to the UK economy as a whole. At least Ireland will be able to trade with our EU partners to help offset the disaster caused by our nearest neighbours.

I think the damage to the entire UK economy could be so great (assuming as looks increasingly likely that the UK crashes out without a deal) that Northern Ireland will be glad of the opportunity to leave the UK and rejoin the EU through unification with the Republic.

Brexit will change the rules as we know them.

I just hope to God our EU partners are ready to help us when the Tsunami hits.

jimmycrackcorm

murphaph wrote:

I just hope to God our EU partners are ready to help us when the Tsunami hits.

But at what cost - tax harmonisation perhaps?

knipex

murphaph wrote: »

I think the damage to the entire UK economy could be so great (assuming as looks increasingly likely that the UK crashes out without a deal) that Northern Ireland will be glad of the opportunity to leave the UK and rejoin the EU through unification with the Republic.

Which option would bankrupt the republic.

Will the north give up the NHS which without the injection of 9 billion sterling per annum would be unaffordable. Plus the high levels of state employment.

Will they be willing to move to the tax structure of the republic ?

Would they be happy to retain existing unemployment benefits or will they want them increased to Irish levels ?

Education ??

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

We have been through this before on this thread and the economics show that Northern Ireland would suffer much more if there was a hard border down the Irish Sea than if the current six counties border was a hard one.

It is a choice economically between a bad outcome (a border between North and South) and a disastrous outcome (a border in the Irish Sea). Only a masochist would argue for an Irish Sea border.

The EU & Irish Government seem to be supporting NI getting special status and remaining within the EU.

For your disaster prediction, the UK will have to stop buying stuff from NI.

murphaph

knipex wrote: »

Which option would bankrupt the republic.

Will the north give up the NHS which without the injection of 9 billion sterling per annum would be unaffordable. Plus the high levels of state employment.

Will they be willing to move to the tax structure of the republic ?

Would they be happy to retain existing unemployment benefits or will they want them increased to Irish levels ?

Education ??

I think if it comes to unification it will be because Brexit has damaged the UK economy to such an extent that there will be no 9 billion flowing to NI at all. I think the UK regions will really suffer under Brexit. It's just that NI has an emergency escape (which itself won't be a bed of roses as Ireland itself will be reeling from the effects of Brexit).

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

It is a choice economically between a bad outcome (a border between North and South) and a disastrous outcome (a border in the Irish Sea).

There's a third option which will become increasingly likely the worse things get in the north: a pro-UI vote. Hard-line political unionism, you so sympathize with, has made it perfectly clear to nationalists that it has no intention of making the north an equal, shared, space for all of its residents.

Ian Paisley Jnr was recently asked if a UI is now more likely and responded by saying that [paraphrasing] if anything it's more likely that Ireland leaves the EU and joins the British Commonwealth - that's the level of delusion we're dealing with here.

Non-unionists have a way of securing equality, a way of securing they never end up at the mercy of a murderous unionist/British security apparatus again, and a way of voting themselves straight back into the EU.

Junkyard Tom

knipex wrote: »

Will the north give up the NHS which without the injection of 9 billion sterling per annum would be unaffordable. Plus the high levels of state employment.

Will they be willing to move to the tax structure of the republic ?

Would they be happy to retain existing unemployment benefits or will they want them increased to Irish levels ?

Education ??

Barring practicalities like currency and tax harmonization just about everything could remain much the same as it is. The assembly could remain in place as devolved from Dublin instead of London and the EU and Britain could stump up the subvention costs until the northeast got its economy sorted out.

murphaph

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Barring practicalities like currency and tax harmonization just about everything could remain much the same as it is. The assembly could remain in place as devolved from Dublin instead of London and the EU and Britain could stump up the subvention costs until the northeast got its economy sorted out.

I don't think so. If it comes to a vote for unification brought on by economic disaster in the UK, especially NI, things will already have diminished enough to have driven the UI vote! There will need to be a very appreciable fall in NI living standards to see a vote for a UI.

There will be no vote for a UI before NI actually experiences a few years of the fallout of Brexit after the UK economy contracts sufficiently so as to make NI lose a large chunk of the subsidy it currently relies upon.

FrancieBrady

According to Newton Emerson on The View, a sea border is now the thinking in Downing Street.

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newton Emerson on The View, a sea border is now the thinking in Downing Street.

Will the DUP consider bringing down the the current government if that's forced upon them?

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Will the DUP consider bringing down the the current government if that's forced upon them?

One would think they kinda have to on principle.

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One would think they kinda have to on principle.

Which could cause a general election with a possible LAB/Corbyn 'Republican sympathetic' government replacing the current one. This is the high-water-mark for Unionists, I believe the Tory party won't have a near-majority for a generation which relegates the DUP to thier natural political position - irrelevant backbench 'nut-cases'.

Jim2007

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newton Emerson on The View, a sea border is now the thinking in Downing Street.

If we were dealing with a normal situation that would be the logical out come and indeed it is the solution already used along the Swiss/German border so it is not even a new concept.

It would also be the logical solution for Gibraltar, a subject yet to be addressed.

It would however mean that Irish and Spanish customs officers would be on British soil!

munsterlegend

FrancieBrady wrote: »

According to Newton Emerson on The View, a sea border is now the thinking in Downing Street.

If Brexit does actually go ahead which I still believe is possible it won't given the instability of politics in the U.K., then it really is the only solution.

I am sure it will be dressed up as something different but the de facto position will be that there will be a border between NI and the rest of the UK.

First Up

munsterlegend wrote:

I am sure it will be dressed up as something different but the de facto position will be that there will be a border between NI and the rest of the UK.

There has to be an EU border somewhere. If goods move unchecked between Britain and N.I and between Ireland North and South, then goods moving between Ireland and the rest of the EU will be subject to checks.

Otherwise UK goods - or goods imported into the UK from third countries - can enter the EU unchecked via Ireland. The EU will not sanction an arrangement that subjects all Irish trade with the rest of the EU to border checks in order to catch stuff from the UK.

And it isn't just goods in transit that can be sealed. A shipment into Ireland South can be be re-packed and loaded.

Unless N.I gets some sort of quasi-EU status, the border will be in Ireland. And if it gets such status, the border will be at the N.I ports.

Peregrinus

I think there may be two issues gettting confused here.

For migration purposes, a border in the Irish sea makes a lot of sense (though it would piss off Unionists no end).

For trade/customs purposes, however, it would be far, far more disruptive to Northern Ireland to have a customs border with Great Britain than to have a customs border with the Republic, NI does vastly more trade with GB than with RoI. For that reason it's probably not a flier.

I haven't seen what Newton Emerson in saying, but my guess is that his comments refer to a migration/travel border.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

For trade/customs purposes, however, it would be far, far more disruptive to Northern Ireland to have a customs border with Great Britain than to have a customs border with the Republic, NI does vastly more trade with GB than with RoI. For that reason it's probably not a flier.

And ROI does far more trade with the rest of the EU than with the UK, so competing priorities.

Peregrinus wrote:

I haven't seen what Newton Emerson in saying, but my guess is that his comments refer to a migration/travel border.

A migration border at Stranraer and a customs border at Dundalk? That'll be nice.

knipex

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Barring practicalities like currency and tax harmonization just about everything could remain much the same as it is. The assembly could remain in place as devolved from Dublin instead of London and the EU and Britain could stump up the subvention costs until the northeast got its economy sorted out.

So an semi independent NI with its own laws, budget, healthcare system, social welfare rates etc but with the Republic and EU picking up the tab and overall responsibility for the inevitable political mess ??

The North has had almost 20 years to sort out its economy and had the good will (and purse) of the US, EU, the UK and the Republic.. (particularly in the early stages) yet its still massively dependent on PS for employment, has a crumbling infrastructure and runs a massive deficit.

Thomas__

knipex wrote: »

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Barring practicalities like currency and tax harmonization just about everything could remain much the same as it is. The assembly could remain in place as devolved from Dublin instead of London and the EU and Britain could stump up the subvention costs until the northeast got its economy sorted out.

So an semi independent NI with its own laws, budget, healthcare system, social welfare rates etc but with the Republic and EU picking up the tab and overall responsibility for the inevitable political mess ??

The North has had almost 20 years to sort out its economy and had the good will (and purse) of the US, EU, the UK and the Republic.. (particularly in the early stages) yet its still massively dependent on PS for employment, has a crumbling infrastructure and runs a massive deficit.

Imagining the DUP being in government of this "unsustainable" semi independent NI makes me rather sick and more so when I think of the wasted EU subsidies thrown at them to keep that alive.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

And ROI does far more trade with the rest of the EU than with the UK, so competing priorities.

The UK's priorities here will be (1) the interests of England (3) the interests of Great Britain (3) the interests of Northern Ireland, in that order. The interests of RoI will not feature at all, and a solution which puts the interests of RoI over those of NI will not find favour either in Belfast or in London.

First Up wrote: »

A migration border at Stranraer and a customs border at Dundalk? That'll be nice.

Not very nice, but feasible. More feasible than a migration-and-customs border at Stranraer.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

And ROI does far more trade with the rest of the EU than with the UK, so competing priorities.

The UK's priorities here will be (1) the interests of England (3) the interests of Great Britain (3) the interests of Northern Ireland, in that order.  The interests of RoI will not feature at all, and a solution which puts the interests of RoI over those of NI will not find favour either in Belfast or in London.  

First Up wrote: »

A migration border at Stranraer and a customs border at Dundalk? That'll be nice.

Not very nice, but feasible.  More feasible than a migration-and-customs border at Stranraer.

It has been obvious from day 1 that the UK's only interest in Ireland is to try to use it as leverage in the negotiations. Verhofstadt's remarks the other day are just a public utterance of what Brussels has been saying to the UK in private - Ireland position in the EU will not be weakened by Brexit and the UK better get used to it.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think there may be two issues gettting confused here.

For migration purposes, a border in the Irish sea makes a lot of sense (though it would piss off Unionists no end).

For trade/customs purposes, however, it would be far, far more disruptive to Northern Ireland to have a customs border with Great Britain than to have a customs border with the Republic, NI does vastly more trade with GB than with RoI. For that reason it's probably not a flier.

I haven't seen what Newton Emerson in saying, but my guess is that his comments refer to a migration/travel border.

No, he was talking about a trade/customs border and refered to it as a 'light touch border' whatever that means.

We will probably hear more in Florence today.