Irish Border and Brexit

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May might not make Christmas.

The DUP can only walk away once. A solution has to be found for the future, long after May and the DUP are gone.

SF will not govern other nationalities so your speculation is just that.

If May is gone and another election follows, there are three possible outcomes:

(1) May wins, and a hard Brexit follows, with a border between NI and Ireland

(2) Labour wins, thanks ironically to business support, and a soft Brexit with the UK still in the single market and customs union

(3) A similar stalemate with the DUP as kingpins so no Irish Sea border.

So, little chance of your favoured outcome, apart from the fact that an Irish Sea border results in a worse economic outcome for Northern Ireland than the bad outcome from a hard Brexit.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If May is gone and another election follows, there are three possible outcomes:

(1) May wins, and a hard Brexit follows, with a border between NI and Ireland

(2) Labour wins, thanks ironically to business support, and a soft Brexit with the UK still in the single market and customs union

(3) A similar stalemate with the DUP as kingpins so no Irish Sea border.

So, little chance of your favoured outcome, apart from the fact that an Irish Sea border results in a worse economic outcome for Northern Ireland than the bad outcome from a hard Brexit.

1&3 do not meet the current requirements of the Irish gov, the rest of the EU nor the stated position of the UK gov.
So, imaginative, innovative, creative solution still required for progress.

As of now, there will be no hard border on the island.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

1&3 do not meet the current requirements of the Irish gov, the rest of the EU nor the stated position of the UK gov.
So, imaginative, innovative, creative solution still required for progress.

As of now, there will be no hard border on the island.

When you desperately need an imaginative, innovative, creative solution, you are up against the wall.

As of now, there will be a hard border on the island, unless someone invents something new, or the UK back down.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

When you desperately need an imaginative, innovative, creative solution, you are up against the wall.

As of now, there will be a hard border on the island, unless someone invents something new, or the UK back down.

Which of the 3 parties want a hard border as of now?

The UK don't need to back down they need to come up with something that is not a hard border on the island.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which of the 3 parties want a hard border as of now?

The UK don't need to back down they need to come up with something that is not a hard border on the island.

It doesn't matter what people want, it is what is legally possible and economically sensible. On that basis, a hard border is currently the default option.

The only possibility is that Northern Ireland remains part of the single market just for food.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It doesn't matter what people want, it is what is legally possible and economically sensible. On that basis, a hard border is currently the default option.

The only possibility is that Northern Ireland remains part of the single market just for food.

There you go, you are using your creativity.

The will is there, and if all 3 agree a solution then the DUP will be faced down. I think they will be politically forced to be pragmatic.
Probably get the Never Never brigade on the streets for a while before they calm down and accept it.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

Except that the DUP will quit and May will lose her majority, so that isn't an option.

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.

What if SF took up their seats and supported May.......

SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.



SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

If it is standing in the way of a deal for the UK, the DUP will be a tiny party again.

murphaph

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.



SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

The DUP would still collapse the government rather than ascent to a special status for NI. They would be history with unionists if they did anything else.

FrancieBrady

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

Junkyard Tom

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government rather than ascent to a special status for NI.

It could be described as a 'bespoke deal' for the north and we could pretend that unionists agreed to it willingly (much like the GFA)

They would be history with unionists if they did anything else

Unionists could always vote for the UUP who are almost indistinguishable from the DUP on policy.

First Up

jm08 wrote:

So, No. 1 point he makes - there can't be a hard border between ROI & NI.

He said the opposite - there cannot be a border that is not visible.

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

He said the opposite - there cannot be a border that is not visible.

He said the vision set out in the Good Friday Agreement needs to be defended by the European Union.

He also said the EU must also ensure that there is no return to the past, and to hard borders on our continent "and certainly not to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic," he added.

He said the European Parliament had made this very clear.

Mr Verhofstadt added that the Northern Ireland border was not a natural one, it was not a river, or a mountain range, and was an illogical divide which should remain invisible as it is today

.

First Up

He said the re-emergence of a border was an inevitable consequence of the choice of Britain to leave the EU and therefore it was for the UK to come up with a workable solution which will safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, preserve the Common Travel Area, avoid a hard border, and one that does not compromise the integrity of the single market and custom union.


He is clear that there has to be a border between the EU and non-EU.  The choices are a border between NI and ROI, a border between Britain and NI (with NI having some limbo-like status) or a border between the island of Ireland and the rest of the EU. The third is unacceptable to ROI and the EU, the second is political dynamite in the UK and the first is an unpleasant prospect.

Take your pick.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

jm08 wrote:

So, No. 1 point he makes - there can't be a hard border between ROI & NI.

He said the opposite - there cannot be a border that is not visible.

Sure, an invisible hard border is hard to comprehend.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

He said the re-emergence of a border was an inevitable consequence of the choice of Britain to leave the EU and therefore it was for the UK to come up with a workable solution which will safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, preserve the Common Travel Area, avoid a hard border, and one that does not compromise the integrity of the single market and custom union.


He is clear that there has to be a border between the EU and non-EU.  The choices are a border between NI and ROI, a border between Britain and NI (with NI having some limbo-like status) or a border between the island of Ireland and the rest of the EU. The third is unacceptable to ROI and the EU, the second is political dynamite in the UK and the first is an unpleasant prospect.

Take your pick.

Maybe the UK should give up NI and leave it to unify with the Republic. That would save them all the border trouble and above all, save them lots of money and even getting rid of the DUP. I have no illusions, that won´t happen because the wee Unionist troublemakers in NI would soon go up to the barricades and wretch the preace process.

First Up

Thomas__ wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

He said the re-emergence of a border was an inevitable consequence of the choice of Britain to leave the EU and therefore it was for the UK to come up with a workable solution which will safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, preserve the Common Travel Area, avoid a hard border, and one that does not compromise the integrity of the single market and custom union.


He is clear that there has to be a border between the EU and non-EU.  The choices are a border between NI and ROI, a border between Britain and NI (with NI having some limbo-like status) or a border between the island of Ireland and the rest of the EU. The third is unacceptable to ROI and the EU, the second is political dynamite in the UK and the first is an unpleasant prospect.

Take your pick.

Maybe the UK should give up NI and leave it to unify with the Republic. That would save them all the border trouble and above all, save them lots of money and even getting rid of the DUP. I have no illusions, that won´t happen because the wee Unionist troublemakers in NI would soon go up to the barricades and wretch the preace process.

That's the dynamite I was referring to.

The Rape of Lucretia

The Northern Unionists is part of the motivation for the two year transition - the next election will be imminent anyway, and the deal, with customs and passport border in the middle of the sea will be done. The unionists can then have their particular cake and eat it then too : outrage at having to show their passports to get to the mainland, yet relief that they have the best deal in the uk by staying part of the common market with unaffected trade with the Eire.

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

I don't know what. Nobody seems to know. The DUP least of all but they are a typical reactionary party. They would respond to a sea border by withdrawing their support of May's government.

It seems the issue to me most likely to cause the negotiations to halt and the government to fall. After that it's anyone's guess. Labour have softened on Brexit for sure. The UK remaining in the CU and SM is still an option under a new government.

murphaph

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Northern Unionists is part of the motivation for the two year transition - the next election will be imminent anyway, and the deal, with customs and passport border in the middle of the sea will be done. The unionists can then have their particular cake and eat it then too : outrage at having to show their passports to get to the mainland, yet relief that they have the best deal in the uk by staying part of the common market with unaffected trade with the Eire.

But the vast majority of their small private sector trade is not with us. It's with GB. It's not the best deal for them at all.

First Up

murphaph wrote: »

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Northern Unionists is part of the motivation for the two year transition - the next election will be imminent anyway, and the deal, with customs and passport border in the middle of the sea will be done. The unionists can then have their particular cake and eat it then too : outrage at having to show their passports to get to the mainland, yet relief that they have the best deal in the uk by staying part of the common market with unaffected trade with the Eire.

But the vast majority of their small private sector trade is not with us. It's with GB. It's not the best deal for them at all.

Correct; hence the dilemma.

The Rape of Lucretia

First Up wrote: »

Correct; hence the dilemma.

Its not really a dilemma though. It will suit England\Westminster\May. Whether it really suits the north or not will be by tge way - but will be a price worth paying come what may, because it will satisfy the EU for an 'imaginative' solution that ensures no border in the island of Ireland. I will be a concession by the UK - but one shouldered entirely by northern unionist sensibilities.

First Up

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Correct; hence the dilemma.

Its not really a dilemma though. It will suit England\Westminster\May. Whether it really suits the north or not will be by tge way - but will be a price worth paying come what may, because it will satisfy the EU for an 'imaginative' solution that ensures no border in the island of Ireland. I will be a concession by the UK - but one shouldered entirely by northern unionist sensibilities.

But getting that through the UK political circus will be the fun part, especially with May's government at the mercy of the DUP.

Thomas__

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Northern Unionists is part of the motivation for the two year transition - the next election will be imminent anyway, and the deal, with customs and passport border in the middle of the sea will be done. The unionists can then have their particular cake and eat it then too : outrage at having to show their passports to get to the mainland, yet relief that they have the best deal in the uk by staying part of the common market with unaffected trade with the Eire.

This current UK govt is more likely to continue with their no-clue at all approach towards the deadline of the Brexit negotiations and I rather anticipate that they´ll get nothing settled, nothing at all and crash out of the EU with no deal and no solved border problem. They have already wasted more than one year since BrexitRef and they always come up with new suggestions to delay the whole process but there is no such delay cos 31 March 2019 is the final day, whether they have achieved anything or not.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

He said the re-emergence of a border was an inevitable consequence of the choice of Britain to leave the EU and therefore it was for the UK to come up with a workable solution which will safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, preserve the Common Travel Area, avoid a hard border, and one that does not compromise the integrity of the single market and custom union.


He is clear that there has to be a border between the EU and non-EU.  The choices are a border between NI and ROI, a border between Britain and NI (with NI having some limbo-like status) or a border between the island of Ireland and the rest of the EU. The third is unacceptable to ROI and the EU, the second is political dynamite in the UK and the first is an unpleasant prospect.

Take your pick.

Maybe the UK should give up NI and leave it to unify with the Republic. That would save them all the border trouble and above all, save them lots of money and even getting rid of the DUP. I have no illusions, that won´t happen because the wee Unionist troublemakers in NI would soon go up to the barricades and wretch the preace process.

That's the dynamite I was referring to.

Aye, a tiny minority holding the majority in ransom. This is going on for too long already.

Thomas__

FrancieBrady wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

The Brits may bin the DUP, but Mrs May won´t cos she´s a power addict and that´s why she got herself into that deal with the wicked DUP in the first place. Besides, the DUP won´t let go of the money promised to them for NI in that deal. That makes the DUPers more likely to bound towards the demands of Mrs May. A really awful Situation this woman has put her country in.

First Up

Thomas__ wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

The Brits may bin the DUP, but Mrs May won´t cos she´s a power addict and that´s why she got herself into that deal with the wicked DUP in the first place. Besides, the DUP won´t let go of the money promised to them for NI in that deal. That makes the DUPers more likely to bound towards the demands of Mrs May. A really awful Situation this woman has put her country in.

True; it is close to the perfect political storm in the UK and a pretty intense storm on the economic and trade fronts too.

Thomas__

murphaph wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

I don't know what. Nobody seems to know. The DUP least of all but they are a typical reactionary party. They would respond to a sea border by withdrawing their support of May's government.

It seems the issue to me most likely to cause the negotiations to halt and the government to fall. After that it's anyone's guess. Labour have softened on Brexit for sure. The UK remaining in the CU and SM is still an option under a new government.

Would they? I am most convinced that Mrs May has purchased them by the millions of £ promised to them for NI. Well, such a step made by the DUP would be equal to losing face in front of their electorates.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

The Brits may bin the DUP, but Mrs May won´t cos she´s a power addict and that´s why she got herself into that deal with the wicked DUP in the first place. Besides, the DUP won´t let go of the money promised to them for NI in that deal. That makes the DUPers more likely to bound towards the demands of Mrs May. A really awful Situation this woman has put her country in.

True; it is close to the perfect political storm in the UK and a pretty intense storm on the economic and trade fronts too.

This disaster will unfold once the Brits are out of the EU by the hard Brexit this current UK govt is aiming at.

jm08

murphaph wrote: »

But the vast majority of their small private sector trade is not with us. It's with GB. It's not the best deal for them at all.

There is more to trade than just where the end product is sold into. I'd imagine Moy Park chicken buys in plenty of chicken from ROI that is processed in their plant in NI and sold into the UK. There is also plenty of movement of animals between ROI & NI (animals born in ROI and sold as young animals to be fattened on NI farms).

As far as I can recall during BSE & Foot & Mouth, NI were very quick to close their borders to GB and hitch their wagon to the ROI and even now, any animal imports from GB onto the island of Ireland are checked. As well as that, as far as I know England & Wales allow imports of GM animal feed, whereas NI & Scotland don't.

The amount of cross border activity illustrated here.
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/donegal-dependence-on-frequent-border-crossings-revealed-36166999.html

First Up

Thomas__ wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

The Brits may bin the DUP, but Mrs May won´t cos she´s a power addict and that´s why she got herself into that deal with the wicked DUP in the first place. Besides, the DUP won´t let go of the money promised to them for NI in that deal. That makes the DUPers more likely to bound towards the demands of Mrs May. A really awful Situation this woman has put her country in.

True; it is close to the perfect political storm in the UK and a pretty intense storm on the economic and trade fronts too.

This disaster will unfold once the Brits are out of the EU by the hard Brexit this current UK govt is aiming at.

The only thing the current UK government is aiming at is its own feet.  The are consumed with internal wrangling, plus the noises off from Farage etc who attack anything that looks like a search for a workable solution. Meanwhile the UK's trade partners and potential investors are quietly looking for ways to cut the UK out of their supply chains.

blanch152

murphaph wrote: »

I don't know what. Nobody seems to know. The DUP least of all but they are a typical reactionary party. They would respond to a sea border by withdrawing their support of May's government.

It seems the issue to me most likely to cause the negotiations to halt and the government to fall. After that it's anyone's guess. Labour have softened on Brexit for sure. The UK remaining in the CU and SM is still an option under a new government.

I still think a soft Brexit under Labour is the most likely outcome.

The proponents of the silly sea border idea forget that it just isn't a runner in the UK domestically because the Scots would demand the exact same deal. Brexit isn't Brexit if only England leaves.

In Ireland we need to face up to the harsh reality of a customs border with the North. It isn't what we want but it is what we are going to get.

jm08

Thomas__ wrote: »

Would they? I am most convinced that Mrs May has purchased them by the millions of £ promised to them for NI. Well, such a step made by the DUP would be equal to losing face in front of their electorates.

That £1bn has to be approved by Parliament first of all (and it has not been listed for debate yet). There is a legal challenge from the Greens as well, so it might be quite a while before they get their hands on it.

First Up

blanch152 wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

I don't know what. Nobody seems to know. The DUP least of all but they are a typical reactionary party. They would respond to a sea border by withdrawing their support of May's government.

It seems the issue to me most likely to cause the negotiations to halt and the government to fall. After that it's anyone's guess. Labour have softened on Brexit for sure. The UK remaining in the CU and SM is still an option under a new government.

I still think a soft Brexit under Labour is the most likely outcome.

The proponents of the silly sea border idea forget that it just isn't a runner in the UK domestically because the Scots would demand the exact same deal. Brexit isn't Brexit if only England leaves.

In Ireland we need to face up to the harsh reality of a customs border with the North. It isn't what we want but it is what we are going to get.

I agree it is the most likely outcome, assuming no radical u-turn by the UK political establishment.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

I still think a soft Brexit under Labour is the most likely outcome.

The proponents of the silly sea border idea forget that it just isn't a runner in the UK domestically because the Scots would demand the exact same deal. Brexit isn't Brexit if only England leaves.

In Ireland we need to face up to the harsh reality of a customs border with the North. It isn't what we want but it is what we are going to get.

The reason why I think it won't be on the island of Ireland because it is impractable because of how porous it is and will cost billions to implement and maintain. I've heard an estimate for installation of infrastructure costing half a billion.

Thomas__

jm08 wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Would they? I am most convinced that Mrs May has purchased them by the millions of £ promised to them for NI. Well, such a step made by the DUP would be equal to losing face in front of their electorates.

That £1bn has to be approved by Parliament first of all (and it has not been listed for debate yet). There is a legal challenge from the Greens as well, so it might be quite a while before they get their hands on it.

I noticed that and once again, Mrs Miller had to bring that up to remind the government on the legal proceedings in the Commons to even get the approval by Parliament for that deal. Makes me wonder why there was no outrage by the other parties in the Commons when this deal was announced in the uprun to settle this "fake-coalition" between the Tories and the DUP.

First Up

jm08 wrote:

The reason why I think it won't be on the island of Ireland because it is impractable because of how porous it is and will cost billions to implement and maintain. I've heard an estimate for installation of infrastructure costing half a billion.

The cost of which will be split between the UK and EU.

A bit of smuggling through the fields won't be the end of the world. No serious business is going to plan its route to market based on Slab Murphy's network.

Thomas__

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

The Brits may bin the DUP, but Mrs May won´t cos she´s a power addict and that´s why she got herself into that deal with the wicked DUP in the first place. Besides, the DUP won´t let go of the money promised to them for NI in that deal. That makes the DUPers more likely to bound towards the demands of Mrs May. A really awful Situation this woman has put her country in.

True; it is close to the perfect political storm in the UK and a pretty intense storm on the economic and trade fronts too.

This disaster will unfold once the Brits are out of the EU by the hard Brexit this current UK govt is aiming at.

The only thing the current UK government is aiming at is its own feet.  The are consumed with internal wrangling, plus the noises off from Farage etc who attack anything that looks like a search for a workable solution. Meanwhile the UK's trade partners and potential investors are quietly looking for ways to cut the UK out of their supply chains.

Aye, that´s all spot on and international operating companies are already looking for a place to go and they don´t wait that long until the UK govt comes to her senses, if they´ll come to their senses any more at all.

jm08

First Up wrote: »

The cost of which will be split between the UK and EU.

A bit of smuggling through the fields won't be the end of the world. No serious business is going to plan its route to market based on Slab Murphy's network.

It won't be a bit of smuggling from Slab Murphy's network though. It was a European network involved in the horsemeat scandal with meat originating in Romania and ending up in burgers in Louth.

With the UK intending to buy food from everywhere, that would make Ireland a very suspect country to buy food from and destroy our premium export food market (such as China for example - who wouldn't approve one Irish cheese brand because it was packaged in the UK).

Going back to the BSE when British beef was banned, despite the seriousness of the situation, this happened:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/farmer-jailed-over-bse-scam-26054163.html

Fintan's views in Irish Times today:

Fintan O'Toole: The Tories have already betrayed the DUP
Despite their deal, the Conservatives are cutting the ground from under their ‘mates’

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-the-tories-have-already-betrayed-the-dup-1.3233355

First Up

This is true but NI's economy isn't based on clandestine operations. Short Bros won't negotiate with Airbus based on prices that depend on smuggling components into the EU via a back road near Derrylin.

View

jm08 wrote: »

blanch152 wrote: »

I still think a soft Brexit under Labour is the most likely outcome.

The proponents of the silly sea border idea forget that it just isn't a runner in the UK domestically because the Scots would demand the exact same deal. Brexit isn't Brexit if only England leaves.

In Ireland we need to face up to the harsh reality of a customs border with the North. It isn't what we want but it is what we are going to get.

The reason why I think it won't be on the island of Ireland because it is impractable because of how porous it is and will cost billions to implement and maintain. I've heard an estimate for installation of infrastructure costing half a billion.

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

jm08

View wrote: »

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

According to wiki on the Lithuania/Russian border and it only has 4 road crossings and 2 railway crossings.

Most of the border follows rivers or lakes. On land, border stations are equipped with engineering and technical facilities (wired fences and the exclusion zone). Most other land areas have no fence, but some places near roads or villages have fences (e.g. at 54°27′11″N 22°42′08″E with Street View coverage). Crossing the border into Lithuania requires a Schengen visa, and into Russia requires a Russian visa.

So, as well as the rivers and lakes, they are putting in a 2 metre fence. Have you had a look at what the border looks like between NI & ROI?

jm08

First Up wrote: »

This is true but NI's economy isn't based on clandestine operations. Short Bros won't negotiate with Airbus based on prices that depend on smuggling components into the EU via a back road near Derrylin.

Some of the poorest parts of the UK are the border areas of NI who are dependent on agriculture. Something like 80% of NI farmer's income comes from EU CAP payments as well. The UK are going to have to pony up that.

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

It won't be a bit of smuggling from Slab Murphy's network though. It was a European network involved in the horsemeat scandal with meat originating in Romania and ending up in burgers in Louth.

With the UK intending to buy food from everywhere, that would make Ireland a very suspect country to buy food from and destroy our premium export food market (such as China for example - who wouldn't approve one Irish cheese brand because it was packaged in the UK).

Going back to the BSE when British beef was banned, despite the seriousness of the situation, this happened:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/farmer-jailed-over-bse-scam-26054163.html

Fintan's views in Irish Times today:

Fintan O'Toole: The Tories have already betrayed the DUP
Despite their deal, the Conservatives are cutting the ground from under their ‘mates’

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-the-tories-have-already-betrayed-the-dup-1.3233355

Poor old Fintan is making the mistake in believing that a UK paper on Brexit is something other than wishful thinking.

As for the border, it is necessary once the poverty of the UK position is revealed. The EU won't tolerate back-door smuggling from the UK and it will end up being a hard border. Great for Slab and the Good Republicans (a great name for a parody folk band) but bad for the rest of us.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

Poor old Fintan is making the mistake in believing that a UK paper on Brexit is something other than wishful thinking.

As for the border, it is necessary once the poverty of the UK position is revealed. The EU won't tolerate back-door smuggling from the UK and it will end up being a hard border. Great for Slab and the Good Republicans (a great name for a parody folk band) but bad for the rest of us.

I agree with you that the EU won't tolerate smuggling, but bearing in mind that your friend Slab's farm straddles the border, it might be a tad difficult to put a 2 metre fence through it (not that a 2 metre fence would be any use)! Quinn Cement might be back in business though in the construction of a Trumpesque wall (which is what will be required to secure the border).

Sam Russell

When the trade figures are calculated for RoI to NI and NI to GB, do they take account of the fact that, in the event of a Irish Sea border, that much of that trade would be diverted via Dublin, or actually sourced from Ireland?

For example, Halfords have branches north and south. The likelihood of such a border would be for companies like Halfords to amalgamate their operation into a single all-Ireland one, and therefor the trade would be recorded as RoI to NI, rather than GB to NI. This would be the case for similar operations like Tesco, M&S and other UK operations that have subsidiary outlets in both jurisdictions.

If there was significant tariffs applied for GB exports to NI/RoI , I would think these companies would begin to import from the EU rather than pay tariffs, changing the dynamic significantly.

blanch152

Sam Russell wrote: »

When the trade figures are calculated for RoI to NI and NI to GB, do they take account of the fact that, in the event of a Irish Sea border, that much of that trade would be diverted via Dublin, or actually sourced from Ireland?

For example, Halfords have branches north and south. The likelihood of such a border would be for companies like Halfords to amalgamate their operation into a single all-Ireland one, and therefor the trade would be recorded as RoI to NI, rather than GB to NI. This would be the case for similar operations like Tesco, M&S and other UK operations that have subsidiary outlets in both jurisdictions.

If there was significant tariffs applied for GB exports to NI/RoI , I would think these companies would begin to import from the EU rather than pay tariffs, changing the dynamic significantly.

There is a huge implication for retail operations in Ireland post-Brexit, regardless of where the border is. Will the likes of Debenhams and M&S maintain operations in the South? Tesco, due to size, most probably will, but many others may not. M&S may become more food-based, like on the continent. Is Harvey Nichols making enough money out of Dundrum to justify staying post-tariffs?

View

jm08 wrote: »

View wrote: »

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

According to wiki on the Lithuania/Russian border and it only has 4 road crossings and 2 railway crossings.

Most of the border follows rivers or lakes. On land, border stations are equipped with engineering and technical facilities (wired fences and the exclusion zone). Most other land areas have no fence, but some places near roads or villages have fences (e.g. at 54°27′11″N 22°42′08″E with Street View coverage). Crossing the border into Lithuania requires a Schengen visa, and into Russia requires a Russian visa.

So, as well as the rivers and lakes, they are putting in a 2 metre fence. Have you had a look at what the border looks like between NI & ROI?

To address your points, Lithuania is putting in a border fence to replace their previous semi-open border with Russia, as that way, no one can claim they didn’t know where the border was when they “accidentally” wander across it.

Second the cost I quoted was based on calculating the cost/per kilometre of the (land based) border fence they are putting in and multiplying it by the length of the NI border.

Third, the amount of border crossings we want to have is up to us. We don’t build bridges and/or tunnels for every single boreen to cross a motorway when we build one, so it crazy to think we need to have one for every boreen along the border. Yes, that’s inconvenient but so too is not having crossing every 250 metres over and under a motorway.

And, lastly, yes I have crossed the NI border several times just as I have crossed the land borders of Switzerland & many other European countries both in pre- & post- Schengen days.

jm08

View wrote: »

To address your points, Lithuania is putting in a border fence to replace their previous semi-open border with Russia, as that way, no one can claim they didn’t know where the border was when they “accidentally” wander across it.

So, its main function is to stop people wandering across. Do you know how many roads cross the border between NI & ROI? Do you plan on blocking most or all of them with your 2 metre fence? Lets not forget that the British Army couldn't stop movement between NI & ROI even when the road crossings were down to 18 (the rest of the roads having been cratered to stop access).

Second the cost I quoted was based on calculating the cost/per kilometre of the (land based) border fence they are putting in and multiplying it by the length of the NI border.

A 2 metre fence is laughable. It wouldn't last 10 minutes. You'd need a 2 metre wall minimum.

Third, the amount of border crossings we want to have is up to us. We don’t build bridges and/or tunnels for every single boreen to cross a motorway when we build one, so it crazy to think we need to have one for every boreen along the border. Yes, that’s inconvenient but so too is not having crossing every 250 metres over and under a motorway.

The 'bridges' and 'tunnels' are already built. Are you going blow them all up to stop people using them?

And, lastly, yes I have crossed the NI border several times just as I have crossed the land borders of Switzerland & many other European countries both in pre- & post- Schengen days.

There is some logic for the borders in Europe - with rivers, lakes, mountain ranges presenting natural boundaries. There is no logic to the NI border - just a line on a map.

knipex

jm08 wrote: »

There is some logic for the borders in Europe - with rivers, lakes, mountain ranges presenting natural boundaries. There is no logic to the NI border - just a line on a map.

All borders are essentially lines on maps.

The questions you need to answer is does a country value its independence and trade enough to protect those borders..