Season 7 Episode 4 "The Spoils of War" - "Non book readers"

peteeeed

https://twitter.com/skyatlantic/status/895243515734638592

seamus

Evade wrote: »

This injury might be worse, it forced him to land. Reinforcements from King's Landing aren't far away and as good as the Dothraki are as individual fighters an experienced, prepared, and well-drilled army would probably still beat them.

I'm not sure. Pure speculation, but what's left of Cersei's forces are inside King's Landing, and all of the food they took from Highgarden is destroyed. There are (probably) no Tarly forces that can arrive as backup, there's no-one in Casterly Rock.

Attempting to launch an attack out of King's Landing would be a slaughter; when you're in a castle, you stay there.

Euron has his fleet, but the Ironborne aren't soldiers, they're scavengers.

Support could arrive from Essos, but the Iron Bank's gold is in King's Landing.

Maybe I'm missing something.

ohnonotgmail

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure. Pure speculation, but what's left of Cersei's forces are inside King's Landing, and all of the food they took from Highgarden is destroyed. There are (probably) no Tarly forces that can arrive as backup, there's no-one in Casterly Rock.

Attempting to launch an attack out of King's Landing would be a slaughter; when you're in a castle, you stay there.

Euron has his fleet, but the Ironborne aren't soldiers, they're scavengers.

Support could arrive from Essos, but the Iron Bank's gold is in King's Landing.

Maybe I'm missing something.

All the food they highgarden is back in kings landing. what was destroyed was the food harvested after highgarden was captured. i remember this being explained in dialogue

Evade

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure. Pure speculation, but what's left of Cersei's forces are inside King's Landing, and all of the food they took from Highgarden is destroyed. There are (probably) no Tarly forces that can arrive as backup, there's no-one in Casterly Rock.

Attempting to launch an attack out of King's Landing would be a slaughter; when you're in a castle, you stay there.

Euron has his fleet, but the Ironborne aren't soldiers, they're scavengers.

Support could arrive from Essos, but the Iron Bank's gold is in King's Landing.

Maybe I'm missing something.

I might be overestimating the size of the army in King's Landing but I think if Cersei has a chance at getting Daenerys she'll take it she hasn't been the most rational person lately.

Cina

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

All the food they highgarden is back in kings landing. what was destroyed was the food harvested after highgarden was captured. i remember this being explained in dialogue

Are you sure? I thought they said it was the gold that was back in KL?

benny79

Is it me or is Bran one of the most annoying characters!

Mickeroo

Cina wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought they said it was the gold that was back in KL?

Yeah pretty sure only the gold had gotten to KL.

ohnonotgmail

Cina wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought they said it was the gold that was back in KL?

Did Jamie not ask Bronn to supervise the harvesting of the crops not already harvested?

Penn

It's a bit of both, I think. The gold was front of the line, then the food/supplies from Highgarden, then Tarly & Bronn were told to make sure the carriages of supplies from local farmers caught up with the rest. We were then told the gold was in Kings Landing, but we don't know how much (if any) of the Highgarden supplies had started making it through too. The gold would have taken priority so it's possible all the stuff was being moved into Kings Landing in stages rather than one long chain of carriages.

AlanG

OneOfThem Stumbled wrote: »

Not really sure how the Lannisters can come back from that though. They've lost their seat and presumably the bulk of their armed forces.

They spoke about the need to get the tail of the army across the river by sunset as it was vulnerable. It is possible a lot of the army got to kings landing with the gold.

flazio

david75 wrote: »

Bend the knee

Is she asking him to propose? I can see these two marrying.

I know Targaerean brother and sister has been a thing but I'm still struggling to support Aunt and Nephew getting it on. Hopefully Bran gets a word in first before things go too far.

rawn

Cina wrote:

Are you sure? I thought they said it was the gold that was back in KL?

The gold is, and whatever was in the granarys i think. The back of the line was the food from the farmers. So i think they've drastically reduced Cersei's food supply, she'll probably want to use the Iron Banks money to buy more ☺ï¸

lawred2

benny79 wrote: »

Is it me or is Bran one of the most annoying characters!

yeah he's a twat

NuMarvel

flazio wrote: »

I know Targaerean brother and sister has been a thing but I'm still struggling to support Aunt and Nephew getting it on. Hopefully Bran gets a word in first before things go too far.

It's Bran. He'll wait until afterwards then tell Dany how beautiful she looked the night she did the deed with her nephew!

hullaballoo

Vojera picked up on the point earlier that the gold and grain from Highgarden went together before Bronn and Tarly's were sent to bludgeon grain from the peasant farmers in the Reach.

Then, the next time we see the caravan, the opening line from Randall is "All the gold's safely through the gates of King's Landing." The gold is "safe" and looks to be heading straight for Bravos with Mycroft.

The next significant line is "we need to get the last of these wagons over the Blackwater Rush before nightfall. If the head of the line is ambushed, the tail will never be able to reinforce in time." These are brief lines from Randall, who's a military man and is not going to leave out important details when updating his Commanding Officer.

What I take from that is the grain from Highgarden is not "safe" in KL. Only the gold is. If the grain was "safe", RT would have said so. The other point is that the wagons that were attached and destroyed looked like they were yet to cross Blackwater Rush. Maybe someone who's re-watched (or just more observant than me) can confirm... but it looks to me like the majority of the army and the food wagons were already over the Blackwater Rush and only the stragglers were attacked?

That means that there is still a lot of food up for grabs, so Dany's loss of grain that she laments earlier - "You still have the largest armies."..."Who won't be able to eat because Cersei has taken all the food from The Reach." - is still recoverable to her but it's a race against time.

Despite the fact that Cersei (and Jaime) should know full well food is worth way more than gold in a siege during winter, what did they prioritise? Paying their fooking debts, as if that will mean anything and shows they don't fully understand the true value of food, having never wanted for it.

Pugzilla

hullaballoo wrote: »

Paying their fooking debts, as if that will mean anything and shows they don't fully understand the true value of food, having never wanted for it.

It will mean something if it allows them to hire mercenaries like the Golden Company and import food from Essos to reinforce King's Landing. Tycho told Cersei that the Iron Bank is willing to give them more funding after this repayment is complete.

hullaballoo

Pugzilla wrote: »

It will mean something if it allows them to hire mercenaries like the Golden Company and import food from Essos to reinforce King's Landing. Tycho told Cersei that the Iron Bank is willing to give them more funding after this repayment is complete.

A little bird in the hand is worth two in Kings Landing.

If Dany captures the remaining food wagons from the Lannister army, Cersei can't turn around and tell the army/people of KL to STFU complaining about starving to death because she's arranging finance...

It appears that the gold has to had back to Bravos, before some of it is returned so that Cersei can source food supplies (and the shipping back and forth that will entail.)

The war is on and it's winter now. People can't survive on a promise.

Pugzilla

hullaballoo wrote: »

A little bird in the hand is worth two in Kings Landing.

If Dany captures the remaining food wagons from the Lannister army, Cersei can't turn around and tell the army/people of KL to STFU complaining about starving to death because she's arranging finance...

It appears that the gold has to had back to Bravos, before some of it is returned so that Cersei can source food supplies (and the shipping back and forth that will entail.)

The war is on and it's winter now. People can't survive on a promise.

There's been huge jumps in time this season, so transit time doesn't appear to be a problem. Euron's Fleet was able sail to the other side of Westeros in the space of one episode. Don't be surprised to see the Golden Company and fresh supplies arrive next time we see KL.

Sofiztikated

Did yer man from the Iron Bank not say that because Cersei's army looked the best prospect, that he'd give her more cash, after paying that debt?

Any particular reason why he'd keep that line up, now that they got murked by a dragon. If it was me, I'd be "Yeah, about that new loan? No." And then jog on over to Dany and be all "Hey, gurl, do you know what a tracker mortgage is?"

And that river got horrid deep, horrid quick. Metaphor for Jamie falling away from Cersei, drowning in his doubt, in reality just splashing about like a 3 year old with a busted rubber ring?

DM_7

Paying off the Iron Bank in full, to borrow from them again seems pointless? Also seems a bad idea to clear debts with someone who now have no incentive to stick with your cause (see debts repaid), can jump elsewhere.

Penn

DM_7 wrote: »

Paying off the Iron Bank in full, to borrow from them again seems pointless? Also seems a bad idea to clear debts with someone who now have no incentive to stick with your cause (see debts repaid), can jump elsewhere.

Defeating the Iron Islands, Dorne & Highgarden and paying off their huge debt in one lump sum would be enough incentive to the Iron Bank that Cersei is winning the war and if they were going to fund one side, it should be her. Dany could go to the Iron Bank and look for their support, but given her actions in Slavers Bay (which as they noted, caused the Iron Bank to lose money), the fact they don't know her, and her likely attitude to them if they met her just like her attitude to everyone else she meets, it's doubtful they'd want to jump to her side anyway.

Cersei is the best bet for them, and if she pays off their current debt, I think they'd be likely to give her a new loan. Question is whether or not they'd just decide to stay out of it altogether given what might befall them if they fund Cersei and she loses, which given Dany's show of force in this episode, is also a possibility.

youngblood

Evade wrote: »

Can Drogon still fly with that wound? If he can't being stuck on the ground and having only the Dothraki to defend him so close to King's landing could lead to a tough choice for Daenerys.

I immediately persumed the arrow the dragon was shot withwas poisoned given what your man said to Cersei in the last episode, presumed all those spears had dragon poison in themm anyone else think so?

DM_7

Penn wrote: »

Defeating the Iron Islands, Dorne & Highgarden and paying off their huge debt in one lump sum would be enough incentive to the Iron Bank that Cersei is winning the war and if they were going to fund one side, it should be her. Dany could go to the Iron Bank and look for their support, but given her actions in Slavers Bay (which as they noted, caused the Iron Bank to lose money), the fact they don't know her, and her likely attitude to them if they met her just like her attitude to everyone else she meets, it's doubtful they'd want to jump to her side anyway.

Cersei is the best bet for them, and if she pays off their current debt, I think they'd be likely to give her a new loan. Question is whether or not they'd just decide to stay out of it altogether given what might befall them if they fund Cersei and she loses, which given Dany's show of force in this episode, is also a possibility.

Interesting points.

I thought, as Cersei was the one making the point about slavers bay and I understood Braavos to be against Slavery, that the Iron Bank was just going along with the crown as they wait for payment.

The methods used to make the payment would also be bad for a Banker as its a source of gold the crown can't go back to. A volitile leader that the people are against would be a bad investment.

Interested to see how it plays out.

PressRun

What I got from the Iron Bank man's conversation with Cersei is that once the debt is repaid in full, the Iron Bank are under no obligation to stick around or have any interest in what happens to the Lannisters thereafter. He tells her that the Iron Bank is not in the business of betting on losers and winners, they're in the business of investing. The Lannisters are not necessarily that investment.
He also told her that some people at the Iron Bank had become quite invested in the interest repayments. That's how Tywin kept them hooked.

The Iron Bank may come back and 'invest' in the crown, but the crown may not always be the Lannisters'.

Mousewar

A few people talking about the show being less ruthless with deaths and maybe that it's because they've overtaken the books and Martin isn't as involved.

He is involved though right? I mean, they're not just making this stuff up? They're following his guidelines I presume in relation to the overall plot and, I imagine, in relation to significant character deaths. I mean, if Martin says Jaime died during the loot train scene, they're not gonna ignore that and keep him alive I'd wager.

PressRun

Mousewar wrote: »

A few people talking about the show being less ruthless with deaths and maybe that it's because they've overtaken the books and Martin isn't as involved.

He is involved though right? I mean, they're not just making this stuff up? They're following his guidelines I presume in relation to the overall plot and, I imagine, in relation to significant character deaths. I mean, if Martin says Jaime died during the loot train scene, they're not gonna ignore that and keep him alive I'd wager.

I think he's just told them how it ends, but how they get to that ending is up to them.

rawn

PressRun wrote: »

I think he's just told them how it ends, but how they get to that ending is up to them.

I don't think they're aiming for his ending. I don't think it's even possible at this point. It will be their own interpretation from what I can see. I can see a LOT of book fans being royally píssed if they had the same ending, given that that the show will wrap up so much sooner than the books.

goose2005

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

why didn't she bring the 3 dragons with her?

I don't think she has the same degree of control over the other 2 that she does over Drogon; they might get overexcited and start attacking the wrong side

Billy86

Oh man, who remembers that part in the book where Joffrey was pregnant with Jon Snow's baby?

Oh... right... non-book readers thread. Never mind nothing to see here!

lazybones32

PressRun wrote: »

What I got from the Iron Bank man's conversation with Cersei is that once the debt is repaid in full, the Iron Bank are under no obligation to stick around or have any interest in what happens to the Lannisters thereafter. He tells her that the Iron Bank is not in the business of betting on losers and winners, they're in the business of investing. The Lannisters are not necessarily that investment.
He also told her that some people at the Iron Bank had become quite invested in the interest repayments. That's how Tywin kept them hooked.

The Iron Bank may come back and 'invest' in the crown, but the crown may not always be the Lannisters'.

But cersei did point out that if IB did invest in a different faction, would the "breaker of chains" or the dorthraki horde be likely to repay any debt? The IB's other streams of revenue will dry up if Daeny is victorious, so it is in their interest that cersei stays in power. Yeah, the IB seemed non-commital but Cersei is their best bet and he knows it.

TheChizler

youngblood wrote: »

I immediately persumed the arrow the dragon was shot withwas poisoned given what your man said to Cersei in the last episode, presumed all those spears had dragon poison in themm anyone else think so?

That's my worry. The weapon is called Scorpion and its inventor does love poison...

Richard Hillman

I reckon the Iron Bank will pop up at Dragon Stone too and play both sides. Especially when they hear of the carnage that the dragons have caused.

Pugzilla

TheChizler wrote: »

That's my worry. The weapon is called Scorpion and its inventor does love poison...

The scorpion is a historical ranged weapon that was used by the Romans, that's where the name comes from.

Pugzilla

A photo of a recreated Roman ballista-type 'Scorpion' catapult. In essence it's much the same, but smaller than a basic 'ballista'. However, this machine was devised as a piece of field artillery. Unlike the full-sized ballista which was a siege engine firing stone balls, the scorpio supported Roman infantry on the battlefield by firing bolts at the enemy.

pickarooney

Why was this some major breakthrough for Qywin and co? It seems very rudimentary.

Bacchus

pickarooney wrote: »

Why was this some major breakthrough for Qywin and co? It seems very rudimentary.

I think it was the mechanism that allowed it to be moved/aimed so freely despite its weight that was Qywin's contribution. I'm sure the patent office in KL will clear up any prior patent infringements... their decision could play a big role in the outcome of this war.

Loafing Oaf

pickarooney wrote: »

Qywin

A Tywin/Qyburn mash-up, now there's a scary thought.:eek:

seamus

Considering that they also thought dragons to be virtually invulnerable until they heard about Drogon being speared in Meereen, it seems unlikely Qyburn just happened to have some dragon poison lying around. They know dragons eat people & animals, wouldn't it be easier just to leave some poisoned corpses close to Dragonstone?

The setup here is that Dany will feel vulnerable; her dragons were her ace-in-the-hole that would guarantee her victory however it came about. But they're also her children. Now that it's been demonstrated the enemy has dragon-defeating weapons, she'll be reluctant to send them into battle in case she loses them. Which will very much rankle with those who follow her and are willing to go into battle for her.

CMOTDibbler

DM_7 wrote: »

Paying off the Iron Bank in full, to borrow from them again seems pointless? Also seems a bad idea to clear debts with someone who now have no incentive to stick with your cause (see debts repaid), can jump elsewhere.

That's normal lending practice. There was a suggestion implicit in their discussions (and previous episodes) that the existing loan had fallen into arrears. Hence having to pay it off in full. Once that's done, the risk can be re-assessed and a new loan with perhaps different terms can be arranged.

lawred2

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

That's normal lending practice. There was a suggestion implicit in their discussions (and previous episodes) that the existing loan had fallen into arrears. Hence having to pay it off in full. Once that's done, the risk can be re-assessed and a new loan with perhaps different terms can be arranged.

Regulated by the central bank of ???

what does normal mean in the context of a supernatural medieval fantasy world?

Daith

lawred2 wrote: »

Regulated by the central bank of ???

what does normal mean in the context of a supernatural medieval fantasy world?

See "The Medici bank" and the rise of capitalism becoming a power

wp_rathead

It would be poetic that a Lannister paying their Debts would be the undoing of them

lazybones32

pickarooney wrote: »

Why was this some major breakthrough for Qywin and co? It seems very rudimentary.

The one he showed to cersei in the vaults was fixed-position. The one bronn used could rotate to different degrees and angles...and fire at a moving target. It was an innovation. And seeing as Q said he had people working tirelessly, they will have more of them and other anti-dragon measures (i presume).

TITANIUM.

lazybones32 wrote: »

The one he showed to cersei in the vaults was fixed-position. The one bronn used could rotate to different degrees and angles...and fire at a moving target. It was an innovation. And seeing as Q said he had people working tirelessly, they will have more of them and other anti-dragon measures (i presume).

Oh ya the walls of kings landing and the red keep should be peppered with them.
It's a very cool weapon in fairness. Imagine if Jamie had brought 100 of them with him dispersed throughout the convoy.

goose2005

pickarooney wrote: »

Why was this some major breakthrough for Qywin and co? It seems very rudimentary.

Kai Winn? Haven't we had enough religious extremists, my child?

goose2005

DM_7 wrote: »

Paying off the Iron Bank in full, to borrow from them again seems pointless? Also seems a bad idea to clear debts with someone who now have no incentive to stick with your cause (see debts repaid), can jump elsewhere.

But by clearing their debts they show themselves to be trustworthy; now the bank can give them an even bigger loan to hire mercenaries from Essos

david75

The one that did manage to hit drogon didn't do a huge amount of damage. They're going to need loads of them. Probably hundreds to have any real effect.

Mousewar

david75 wrote: »

The one that did manage to hit drogon didn't do a huge amount of damage. They're going to need loads of them. Probably hundreds to have any real effect.

Hit him in the right place and it'll do damage all right.

lawred2

Mousewar wrote: »

Hit him in the right place and it'll do damage all right.

the balls?

PressRun

goose2005 wrote: »

But by clearing their debts they show themselves to be trustworthy; now the bank can give them an even bigger loan to hire mercenaries from Essos

But they​ killed and stole from their only remaining allies to pay it off. How many times will they be able to do that in order to pay off loans? And what's Cersei's economic plan anyway? She doesn't even have food for the people of King's Landing.
Olenna asked Jamie why Tywin didn't ransack Highgarden as soon as he knew the gold mines were done. It's because he knew it would look weak.
Cersei is thinking in the short-term​, while Tywin was thinking long-term. The guy from the Iron Bank explicitly said that there were people in the bank who were benefiting from the interest on the loan. Now that that's all gone, there's nothing to keep them interested in the Lannisters.
I think his talk about Cersei being better than Tywin is just trying to plamaus her.