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Winter 2017-18: Discussion
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ECMWF 500 hPa height and thickness chart at 240 hours, showing extensive blocking setting up, pumping heights northwards. I'd expect the high to shift nortwards or northwestwards after this timeframe, so that may bring in an easterly or northeasterly at around 12-14 days.
PS. The organge shade in the middle looks like Alfred Hitchcock looking at us...
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »PS. The organge shade in the middle looks like Alfred Hitchcock looking at us...
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »ECMWF 500 hPa height and thickness chart at 240 hours, showing extensive blocking setting up, pumping heights northwards. I'd expect the high to shift nortwards or northwestwards after this timeframe, so that may bring in an easterly or northeasterly at around 12-14 days.
PS. The organge shade in the middle looks like Alfred Hitchcock looking at us...
That's better than 18-20th November. That extra week should make things a bit colder.0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Not necessarily which part? I know pinch of salt and all that, but on average, there's a strong signal for high pressure anomalies to our north, with a weaker signal for low to our south. This would hint at an increased possibility of an easterly influence.
The part where you said the charts favour 'northern blocking'. I am not contesting your interpretation, just pointing out that positive height anomalies to our north does not necessarily indicate that northern blocking with be a theme. It may well be just that an Azores ridge is extending its influence further north than usual.
But as you say, pinch of salt and all of that. Forecast chart from October last year for the same period - for example.
As Syran rightly points out, these long-range seasonal forecast charts are basically useless for our little corner of the world.New Moon
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »So I was away for a few days (we are moving from the coast and the big city to a small town in the mountains, now I should really get time for research this winter).
There has been quite the little discussion going on, three points need maybe a bit of a comment from me, although I have learned to live with this sort of thing over many years.
(a) the most immediate, some discussion went back to some comment I made in mid-October about it taking a brave person to forecast a cold start to winter etc, that was just a throw-away comment embedded in my promise to get down to the task of making a winter forecast, not meant to be a fully researched forecast in and of itself. The forecast I did eventually post spoke about some milder weather to start off in December but you'll notice that I did not include November in the forecast and actually gave it little attention since winter is Dec-Jan-Feb. So not meant to be an excuse, you can take that any way you want, but in my mind it's a sort of false flag since I am sometimes in chat mode and sometimes in forecast mode.
(b) perhaps more serious, I don't appreciate any suggestions that there is some cult of personality or unwarranted respect brought about by any nefarious means, people here are fully independent thinkers who can form whatever opinion they want and I don't try to shape what opinion that will be. I have no interest in being the centre of any cult of personality, I would be hard pressed to demonstrate a personality at all.
(c) going on from that, there was some back and forth about comparisons of one individual (me or any other lone wolf forecaster) and national agencies. The irony there is that national agencies have made it pretty clear they do not consider monthly or seasonal outlooks to be all that credible and they would rather not be forced to provide them, but they will for high-level clients (the folks paying the bills). My attitude is somewhat similar, I keep mentioning each year that my methodology (maybe mythology was the right word)
is a work in progress and you're just getting the latest from the lab so to speak. I'm sure it has been stated several times that I don't consider this work to be in some final almost-there stage, it's very much in an early stage of development but I do honestly think it has made some progress past just mere random guesswork, and I see some people posting that same impression. So thanks for your comments. I wouldn't claim to be "better" than anybody really, what motivates me is to try to solve this complex intellectual challenge and if somebody else gets there faster or more demonstrably then all power to them, I will be more impressed than anyone else because I know how difficult this is.
So that's about all I wanted to say, the November charts do keep hinting at some rather wintry synoptics but I keep noticing when I look back on my forecast package that they may have overstated a few cases already. This seems to be almost a routine default characteristic of the GFS model in recent years, but a pattern that I think many of us recognize is that eventually these false starts will be rewarded with a real event.
I will keep working on my research and will continue also to be very vigilant for good ideas "out there" including some that show up in these threads, it would be very limiting for anyone doing this sort of research to get too focussed on only one perspective or methodology. I've said this numerous times also -- in my opinion, this science won't score some huge theoretical breakthrough like the day Einstein wrote out his equation or Newton saw the apple falling, this is an empirical discipline and it will advance very gradually. Whoever is making the most progress will also have problems getting fully heard around the whole community, so you may not know when somebody has reached a sort of almost-there plateau of reliable results. I know that I am not there yet and so instead of getting peeved at anybody, my only useful strategy is to keep working. The only limitation on that is the natural span of life and the clock is ticking.
Dear M.T.,
It was myself, De Bild, who posed most of these questions. I had a lot of queries in my mind. I tried to pose them without being offensive and i hope i haven't been. My questions re. National Met Agencies, how sometimes i felt legitimate questioning of one forecasters LRF over another wasn't treated equally and so on. Firstly Nacho Libre explained a lot of your background work and attention to detail.
I have always been a fan of your daily forecasts and expressed my thanks for your work done on a voluntary basis.
I want to thank you for your very generous and detailed reply/message. You answered most graciously, in a gentlemanly fashion without any hint of ego.
I wish you continued success with your forecasting and personal good health. Thank you again for your exemplary work on this site. And if i was insulting or overly critical my sincere apologies.
Thank you,
Wilheim De Bilde0 -
I'm not sure milder South westerlies are the most likely scenario to be honest, not saying screaming north easterlies either but with an extensive block setup over the Arctic its unlikely we would sustain South westerlies for long. Having said that, our main problem for getting a more favorable setup are those ever relentless euro Heights. If they drop though, we won't be seeing South westerlies at all.
Huge uncertainty in the medium term and the models are still all over the place, will be interesting to see if the ECM sticks to its route or goes towards the GFS. The GEM this afternoon and to an extent the GFS have swung back towards a colder outlook.
The UKMO 12z does show warmer South West winds returning but I suspect they would be short lived looking at the NH profile.
I mean, mild southwesterlies can still occur with blocking over the Arctic and a strong Siberian High. This was evident in Winter 2013/14 when lots of blocking took place over the Arctic Circle - as well as a strong Siberian High, but the cold was sent over to North America with much of the US having one of their coldest Winters on record. The warm air from the tropics tried to ascend at the same time but with the unusually extreme cold air descending at the same time into North America, a huge contrast was made. The two air masses did not get along with each other so well and powered up the polar jet across the Atlantic creating a jet stream which would throw many storms across the British Isles through the Winter of 2013/14. Remember that this was all going on at the same time of northern blocking and a strong Siberian High - I've explained already in a previous post how a strong Siberian High can be our best friend or our worst enemy and in this case, it was our worst enemy.
Just saying this so you'll be aware.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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JCX BXC is correct. November 2016 was the coldest November over Ireland since 2010. The month had an IMT of just 5.3c which is an anomaly of -1.9c below the 1981-2010 IMT November average. The 20th was quite a cold day in terms of maximum temperatures for Ireland. I don't have actual statistics for stations' maximum temperatures on this day so I can only speak for my own station with a maximum of only 1.6c. I had a total of 14 air frosts last November!! Greenshill in Kilkenny had up to 15 air frosts in November 2016. The same place had 24 ground frosts that month.
Here's the synoptic chart for Nov 20 2016:
Here's what Met Éireann says about the temperatures for November 2016:All stations reported below LTA mean temperatures in November. Deviations from monthly average ranged from -2.4°C at Carlow (Oak Park) with a mean temperature of 5.2°C to -0.5°C at Malin Head, Co Donegal with a mean temperature of 5.5°C. Mean temperatures for November were lowest at both Slieve Bloom Mountains (Nealstown), Co Laois and Cavan (Drumconnick) with a monthly mean temperature of 4.9°C with deviations from average of -1.3°C and -1.7°C, respectively. The month's highest mean temperature was reported at Sherkin Island, Co Cork with 8.1°C, a difference from LTA of -1.4°C. The month's highest maximum was 17.4°C on the 14th at Cahore (Kilmichael House), Co Wexford, while the month's lowest minimum temperature was -7.3°C at Markree, Co Sligo on the 25th. The month's lowest grass minimum was also reported on the 25th with -12.0°C at Straide, Co Mayo.
November 2016 was a fantastic month all in all and one of my favourite Autumn months of my life so far, next to September 2009, October and November 2010.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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sryanbruen wrote: »JCX BXC is correct. November 2016 was the coldest November over Ireland since 2010. The month had an IMT of just 5.3c which is an anomaly of -1.9c below the 1981-2010 IMT November average. The 20th was quite a cold day in terms of maximum temperatures for Ireland. I don't have actual statistics for stations' maximum temperatures on this day so I can only speak for my own station with a maximum of only 1.6c. I had a total of 14 air frosts last November!! Greenshill in Kilkenny had up to 15 air frosts in November 2016. The same place had 24 ground frosts that month.
Here's the synoptic chart for Nov 20 2016:
Here's what Met Éireann says about the temperatures for November 2016:
November 2016 was a fantastic month all in all and one of my favourite Autumn months of my life so far, next to September 2009, October and November 2010.
Wow! How have some of us forgotten so quickly... Crazy.. We must have been full of hope for winter this time last year
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