Winter 2017-18: Discussion

nagdefy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So about that idea of mine to crunch the numbers of past winters (pressure data) and test out the findings of Oneiric3 over a longer period of time -- I now see that the wetterzentrale archives (from NOAA) have been improved in two ways. One is that they now go back 20 years further to 1851. The other is that they have maps for every six hours and also a hover feature on the display that makes it a lot faster to inspect the maps and record the numbers.

Anyway, I can report that I have started the data file, choosing Dublin as my location (I am quite sure it would not matter to the analysis what location we choose), and I have recorded the data from Jan 1 to Mar 15 1851 as well as from Nov 16 1851 to Mar 15 1852, so that's two winters down, 128 to go to reach the start of Oneiric's 1981-2010 analysis. I would probably keep going so I had the same data for 1981-2016. But I am sure it will look almost identical, an average of five locations in central Ireland is going to have almost the same pressure as Dublin every single data point.

What I noted so far, too early to see any trends of course, is that there were some strong lows passing to the north at the expected times from my own earlier reported research (Dec-Jan full and new moons) and that the winter of 1851-52 must have been tedious for anyone interested in the weather back then, it looks almost devoid of interesting events of any kind. The pressure rose quite high for most of late Feb and early March 1852 so probably some sharp frosts each morning. The winter itself looks bland with a weak zonal flow most of the time.

I chose Nov 16 to Mar 15 rather than just Dec-Jan-Feb so that I would have enough "sidebar" data to get three full lunar cycles out of each winter. When I test that part, I will line up the data by lunar dates but I will also test Oneiric's calendar year findings. It's going to take a few weeks at a minimum, especially as I am busy moving out of here and into our new location. When I have the first 30 years done we can start to talk about trends uncovered.

I scanned through winter 1852-53 to see what that looked like, and Feb 1853 looks like it could have been quite a snowy month in Ireland, if anyone has any way to check for evidence of that, have a look (mostly Feb, the good synoptics started in late Jan and lasted into early March too). A lot of cold easterly winds with lows south of Ireland, no nasty warming of oceans back then, surprised I haven't encountered tales about the winter of 1853. Feb 1853 in the CET record was 18th coldest (0.6 C).

Anyway, with the new maps posted, I had my first chance to see a few notable weather events of those two decades, for example Toronto had its highest pressure in a long period of record in Jan 1866 and while Toronto is a bit off the map grid you can see a closed 1055 mb high extending into Quebec (Jan 8 1866). Also some of the synoptics of the very heavy snowfall month of March 1870 in eastern Canada, as you'd expect, a storm track from PA to south of NS.

If you want to see these maps, go to wetterzentrale.de and click on archives, then NOAA in the drop down menus, and choose the dates you want to see. You have to be careful that it doesn't revert to the recent default date in 2014 when you move around from map to map.

If anyone wants to record any winters between my early start and 1981, and send me the data in an excel file, I'll let you know how I am recording the data. This could give us some answers earlier than I will be able to achieve solo.

I have access through work to historic newspapers going back to the 1700s so i'll give a look for Feb 1853.

sryanbruen

Now that's what you call northern blocking!

esposito

Personally (Like Gonzo) I would prefer a cold arctic/siberian outbreak to happen around Christmas onwards. If it happened in the next few weeks, chances are we might have a return to mild westerlies for the rest of the winter.

Something along the lines of December 2009 and January 2010 would be fantastic!

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So about that idea of mine to crunch the numbers of past winters (pressure data) and test out the findings of Oneiric3 over a longer period of time -- I now see that the wetterzentrale archives (from NOAA) have been improved in two ways. One is that they now go back 20 years further to 1851. The other is that they have maps for every six hours and also a hover feature on the display that makes it a lot faster to inspect the maps and record the numbers.

Anyway, I can report that I have started the data file, choosing Dublin as my location (I am quite sure it would not matter to the analysis what location we choose), and I have recorded the data from Jan 1 to Mar 15 1851 as well as from Nov 16 1851 to Mar 15 1852, so that's two winters down, 128 to go to reach the start of Oneiric's 1981-2010 analysis. I would probably keep going so I had the same data for 1981-2016. But I am sure it will look almost identical, an average of five locations in central Ireland is going to have almost the same pressure as Dublin every single data point.

What I noted so far, too early to see any trends of course, is that there were some strong lows passing to the north at the expected times from my own earlier reported research (Dec-Jan full and new moons) and that the winter of 1851-52 must have been tedious for anyone interested in the weather back then, it looks almost devoid of interesting events of any kind. The pressure rose quite high for most of late Feb and early March 1852 so probably some sharp frosts each morning. The winter itself looks bland with a weak zonal flow most of the time.

I chose Nov 16 to Mar 15 rather than just Dec-Jan-Feb so that I would have enough "sidebar" data to get three full lunar cycles out of each winter. When I test that part, I will line up the data by lunar dates but I will also test Oneiric's calendar year findings. It's going to take a few weeks at a minimum, especially as I am busy moving out of here and into our new location. When I have the first 30 years done we can start to talk about trends uncovered.

I scanned through winter 1852-53 to see what that looked like, and Feb 1853 looks like it could have been quite a snowy month in Ireland, if anyone has any way to check for evidence of that, have a look (mostly Feb, the good synoptics started in late Jan and lasted into early March too). A lot of cold easterly winds with lows south of Ireland, no nasty warming of oceans back then, surprised I haven't encountered tales about the winter of 1853. Feb 1853 in the CET record was 18th coldest (0.6 C).

Anyway, with the new maps posted, I had my first chance to see a few notable weather events of those two decades, for example Toronto had its highest pressure in a long period of record in Jan 1866 and while Toronto is a bit off the map grid you can see a closed 1055 mb high extending into Quebec (Jan 8 1866). Also some of the synoptics of the very heavy snowfall month of March 1870 in eastern Canada, as you'd expect, a storm track from PA to south of NS.

If you want to see these maps, go to wetterzentrale.de and click on archives, then NOAA in the drop down menus, and choose the dates you want to see. You have to be careful that it doesn't revert to the recent default date in 2014 when you move around from map to map.

If anyone wants to record any winters between my early start and 1981, and send me the data in an excel file, I'll let you know how I am recording the data. This could give us some answers earlier than I will be able to achieve solo.

According to Met Éireann, a violent snowstorm occurred on 14th February 1853. On this same day, the Queen Victoria ship struck rocks off Howth Head which led to the loss of 55 lives. The month had a CET of 0.6c which is -3.3c below the 1821-50 CET average.

I cannot find much information on February 1853, even from Mr Data himself, Kevin Bradshaw.

nagdefy

I think 2010 has planted the idea of an early winter in our minds. Pre 2010 we never expected much till the week or 2 before Christmas at the earliest. Usually the week between Christmas and New Year marked a change to real cold.

What annoys me most about February since 1994 is how it has changed from the last month of winter to the first month of Spring. I remember reading some UK records 3 years ago which showed February as the month which has shown the greatest warming over the last 100 years, due to Climate Change. It was running at 3C warmer.

That's one reason i like to see cold kicking in around 8th December now as February has become such a write off for wintry weather.

Then months like February 2012 were heart breaking as we looked accross the Irish Sea at December 2010 conditions. That 10 days or so of model watching was the most depressing i've witnessed.

De Bild

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Oh great. I return to boards after being away from it for a few weeks and I'm meet with the news that there will be no snow this Winter. Another load of mild muck for us. Oh well I might log back on for the Christmas just to be festive.

Please Sir but i don't get your post. Posters are unsure of what's ahead for the next 2 weeks. That will take us up to 28 November. Posters haven't any idea what will happen then. Today is the same as any mid November day when we know not what the winter ahead will bring.

I feel despair in your post. Do not worry. If snow comes this winter, it comes. If not it is hardly the most important aspect in any of our lives.

Cheer up Mein Freund, yes:)

esposito

nagdefy wrote: »

I think 2010 has planted the idea of an early winter in our minds. Pre 2010 we never expected much till the week or 2 before Christmas at the earliest. Usually the week between Christmas and New Year marked a change to real cold.

What annoys me most about February since 1994 is how it has changed from the last month of winter to the first month of Spring. I remember reading some UK records 3 years ago which showed February as the month which has shown the greatest warming over the last 100 years, due to Climate Change. It was running at 3C warmer.

That's one reason i like to see cold kicking in around 8th December now as February has become such a write off for wintry weather.

Then months like February 2012 were heart breaking as we looked accross the Irish Sea at December 2010 conditions. That 10 days or so of model watching was the most depressing i've witnessed.

The last cold snowy February I remember was 2009, at least for Dublin anyway. Around the 8th-13th if i'm not mistaken. We had a few days of lying snow in south Dublin.

sryanbruen

esposito wrote: »

The last cold snowy February I remember was 2009, at least for Dublin anyway. Around the 8th-13th if i'm not mistaken. We had a few days of lying snow in south Dublin.

The only snow I had that month (which was a big one so I can't complain) was on the 2nd/3rd:

nagdefy

esposito wrote: »

The last cold snowy February I remember was 2009, at least for Dublin anyway. Around the 8th-13th if i'm not mistaken. We had a few days of lying snow in south Dublin.

Yes it was. Actually started a little earlier. Very cold by 1st February and by 2nd of Feb snow. We had snow (altitude) from 2nd until 23rd Feb.

The Februarys of the 1970s and 1980s, 1991 and 1994 were very good, for snow, in my memory. 1996 had a cold spell mid month, around the time of the Canary Wharf bombing. 2001, foot and mouth year had a cold 28th December with snow and very cold start to March. 2005 a cold last week with some snow. 2007 had a snowfall around the 7th/8th, mostly high ground. It was the Thursday/Friday before Ireland played their first rugby game in Croke Park, against France. Vincent Clerc winning try! 2010 cold enough, snow in the last third of the month. Part of the coldest winter in 50 yrs. 2013 a few hill snow events, March was the exceptionally cold month.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

The only snow I had that month (which was a big one so I can't complain) was on the 2nd/3rd:

Snap Sryan! I was typing as you posted! We had lying snow until the 23rd of the month (altitude).

esposito

sryanbruen wrote: »

The only snow I had that month (which was a big one so I can't complain) was on the 2nd/3rd:

Ah yes, it was at the start of February 2009. Good memories, a nice easterly for a few days that closed Dublin Airport temporarily.

sryanbruen

esposito wrote: »

Ah yes, it was at the start of February 2009. Good memories, a nice easterly for a few days that closed Dublin Airport temporarily.

It was one of the few times that a SSW event destroyed the chances of cold. If it weren't for the SSW event in February 2009, some people say the cold would have went on for longer.

Donegal Storm

February 2009 and 2010 had plenty of days with falling snow in Donegal though not much accumulation.

We had about 5 or 6cm of totally unexpected snow in Letterkenny in early February 2011, I went to bed around midnight with no mention of snow in the forecast and nothing on here, woke up at 7am to torrential snow about ankle deep, lasted about 3 or 4 days on the ground iirc

Don't think I've seen snow in February since then, we must surely be due a cold one at this stage

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

February 2009 and 2010 had plenty of days with falling snow in Donegal though not much accumulation.

We had about 5 or 6cm of totally unexpected snow in Letterkenny in early February 2011, I went to bed around midnight with no mention of snow in the forecast and nothing on here, woke up at 7am to torrential snow about ankle deep, lasted about 3 or 4 days on the ground iirc

Don't think I've seen snow in February since then, we must surely be due a cold one at this stage

I do remember seeing a BBC chart with some snow to the northwest of Ireland for 3 February 2011.

Donegal Storm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I do remember seeing a BBC chart with some snow to the northwest of Ireland for 3 February 2011.

Just looked back through my photos and it was on the morning of the 7th. It was frontal snow where cold air was dragged into the back edge of the front, very localised and wasn't picked up by forecasters or anyone on here. I've rarely been as confused as I was waking up that morning :pac:

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Just looked back through my photos and it was on the morning of the 7th. It was frontal snow where cold air was dragged into the back edge of the front, very localised and wasn't picked up by forecasters or anyone on here. I've rarely been as confused as I was waking up that morning :pac:

Aw yeah, I remember that too now that you mentioned it. It was an unexpectedly sunny day for me after what was a soaking weekend of downpours.... I was meant to have heavy rain especially through the morning but I had little to none.

snowstorm445

nagdefy wrote: »

I think 2010 has planted the idea of an early winter in our minds. Pre 2010 we never expected much till the week or 2 before Christmas at the earliest. Usually the week between Christmas and New Year marked a change to real cold.

What annoys me most about February since 1994 is how it has changed from the last month of winter to the first month of Spring. I remember reading some UK records 3 years ago which showed February as the month which has shown the greatest warming over the last 100 years, due to Climate Change. It was running at 3C warmer.

That's one reason i like to see cold kicking in around 8th December now as February has become such a write off for wintry weather.

Then months like February 2012 were heart breaking as we looked accross the Irish Sea at December 2010 conditions. That 10 days or so of model watching was the most depressing i've witnessed.

True but seeing as we've had cold and (sort of) snowy spells in Ireland in March as recently as 2013 (and late March at that) I would say that a cold outbreak in February is still very much a possibility. We've just been very unlucky over the past decade or so in that regard.

I must say though even though 2010 has tainted our perception a bit, I still think snow in December is the best hands down. Not necessarily just because of its seasonal quality (although that's a big plus) but just because the days are the shortest in December and so it reduces the odds of it being melted in sunlight. It feels like the right time of year for snowy weather.

One particular memory from 2010 that stands out in my head was the solstice at Newgrange. On the shortest day of the year, the sun rose over countryside completely blanketed in snow. The wintry landscape felt very appropriate.

Best period for snow IMO is the last third of December, around Christmas and up to the New Year (and early January as well).

Gonzo

The last week of December is probably my favorite week of the year for snow. That Christmas-New Year period really delivered in 2000 and was the only really memorable major snow event between 1991 and 2010. I remember going to relations house near Tullamore on St Stephens Day, crispy frosty morning, dazzling sunshine and very cold, later that day the snow set in and we ended up staying in Tullamore till New Year's day due to the snow.

This is the BBC forecast from that event, those nights brought serious cold with temperatures as low as -15C across parts of Ireland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYEUTHKP_F8

nagdefy

My favourite time is 10th to 31st January. That's when our coldest conditions are recorded and you can get snow from the north or a cold continent, i.e. the east directly as opposed to north east, low pressure meeting biting easterlies bringing big snowfalls.

The coldest ever temperature was recorded on the 18/19 January. I've childhood memories of 1987 and the cold that set in around the 11th January that peaked a day or so later.

'January brings the snow, makes our feet and fingers glow':)

Statistically, going back to the 1600s or so, January and February are the 2 most potent months for snow. Most of the iconic Irish winter weather months have been January or February. February 1933, February 1947, January and February 1963, January 1982, January 1987, February 1991. With the exception of December 2010 and 2000.

George Sunsnow

If you want an example of how silly it is to rely on lrfs for anything other than a wide vague overview of ‘mights’ just look at how bad the actual FI output is most of the time
If FI can be so off a lot of the time,there’s little hope for less technological methods I think

Prime example is any weeks worth of mt’s further outlooks in his forecast packages

3 days ago ,snow in the east next weekend
This morning ,well rain really

Ok he’s only giving a view on what an FI blend is showing but it’s usually only showing how useless FI is

It’s best to note too how well known met people including the likes of John Hammond were tweeting gospel from FI too with shivery words and maps
I’ve noticed this more often lately from them
It doesn’t bode confidence anymore when I see it
Crying wolf etc

Moral of the story is,the technology shouldn’t over rule experience
Back to the drawing board methinks

Gonzo

I always lean towards the milder outcomes, because 8 times out of 10 that's what we get, especially over Ireland, we are more prone to mild outcomes than anywhere else in Europe. Even a proper easterly over the UK doesn't mean that Ireland is going to join in the fun, Winter 2012 being a classic example of that. They are also far more likely to see snow from mild/cold battles than we are.

I've witnessed enough non events and chart changes in my life time to not take the threat of snow/cold too seriously until it comes into the 24-36 hour timeframe and even then it's often knife edge stuff, wondering is the temperature or due points correct, will the Irish sea develop any showers, will the Isle of Man spoil things, how far will the showers make it across Ireland from the west, wind directions, The high pressure too close to Ireland, it's often too early or too late in the season for real snow, all these scenarios.

But on rare occasions it does work out, and when that happens it makes the snow all the more truly magical.

twinkletoes

Gonzo wrote: »

I always lean towards the milder outcomes, because 8 times out of 10 that's what we get, especially over Ireland, we are more prone to mild outcomes than anywhere else in Europe. Even a proper easterly over the UK doesn't mean that Ireland is going to join in the fun, Winter 2012 being a classic example of that. They are also far more likely to see snow from mild/cold battles than we are.

I've witnessed enough non events and chart changes in my life time to not take the threat of snow/cold too seriously until it comes into the 24-36 hour timeframe and even then it's often knife edge stuff, wondering is the temperature or due points correct, will the Irish sea develop any showers, will the Isle of Man spoil things, how far will the showers make it across Ireland from the west, wind directions, The high pressure too close to Ireland, it's often too early or too late in the season for real snow, all these scenarios.

But on rare occasions it does work out, and when that happens it makes the snow all the more truly magical.

Yep agree! In a nutshell!!

Buffalobill29

I hate when headline say "Ireland's cold snap is about to end and we can enjoy mild weather for the next week"...i don't enjoy mild weather, i really hate mild weather in November and especially Winter...are they clueless that people actually want snow and cold weather, not bloody mild weather!

Oneiric 3

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

I hate when headline say "Ireland's cold snap is about to end and we can enjoy mild weather for the next week"...i don't enjoy mild weather, i really hate mild weather in November and especially Winter...are they clueless that people actually want snow and cold weather, not bloody mild weather!

Most, if not all, of those who work in the media assume that we, the great unwashed, subscribe to a kind of group think, where all our wishes and desires are the same, and they, the great enlightened, merely put in to words what we unthinkingly want to hear.

Needless to say, most of those who work in the media are as thick as two short planks.

PokeHerKing

Buffalobill29 wrote:

I hate when headline say "Ireland's cold snap is about to end and we can enjoy mild weather for the next week"...i don't enjoy mild weather, i really hate mild weather in November and especially Winter...are they clueless that people actually want snow and cold weather, not bloody mild weather!

They just need a sound bite. There hasn't been a [ Mod Snip] cold snap to begin with!

BLIZZARD7

Models showing a milder outlook today, would not be surprised to see them flip back tomorrow. For now though we look to be on the wrong side of things for colder weather. We are seeing quite notable differences just 4 days out, more than would be expected in normal run to run variation. The models just don't seem to have a proper handle on the evolving blocking just yet.

Clonmel1000

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Most, if not all, of those who work in the media assume that we, the great unwashed, subscribe to a kind of group think, where all our wishes and desires are the same, and they, the great enlightened, merely put in to words what we unthinkingly want to hear.

Needless to say, most of those who work in the media are as thick as two short planks.

The irony here is beautiful

M.T. Cranium

I don't see much irony, when it comes to weather reporting the media tend to beat two drums constantly, the lower grade portion are constantly banging on about some unprecedented cold winter or hot summer just around the corner, and the higher grade dutifully spoon feed us the latest "proven science" that requires us to pay higher taxes that still won't be enough to change the human-disturbed weather (and when you ask, so why are we paying these taxes if it won't work anyway, then we are reminded not only is this proven science from the 99% lock-step consensus, but it's the Right Thing to Do).

The irony is that if we paid less tax, all the civil servants would stay home and global warming would presumably end.

snowstorm445

Can't tell which is more upsetting atm, Ireland's snow drought or Ireland's World Cup drought.

nagdefy

We've had snow since 2002;)