Winter 2017-18: Discussion

mickmackey1

Right now the forecast says 'dry clear and cold' overnight, yet the most recent reports have only one 'fine' in the country (Casement) with 'cloudy' the most common report. Joke.

nagdefy

Of all the winter charts i've come across the 12/13th January 1987 probably tops them all for me. We speak about the improbability of 2 events like 2010 in the one decade. However, we're due a proper easterly.. Early Feb 2009 and the end of December 1996/start of Jan 1997 were so so. But a really proper one

Take that!



And that!

Gaoth Laidir

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Right now the forecast says 'dry clear and cold' overnight, yet the most recent reports have only one 'fine' in the country (Casement) with 'cloudy' the most common report. Joke.

Right now the vast majority of stations are reporting clear or just 1 okta cloud cover. The exceptions are a few stations in the west and southwest. Calling the forecast a joke based on just the midnight reports is itself a bit of a joke.

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Right now the vast majority of stations are reporting clear or just 1 okta cloud cover. The exceptions are a few stations in the west and southwest. Calling the forecast a joke based on just the midnight reports is itself a bit of a joke.

Agreed, the forecast appears to be spot on, it's the reports that could be argued about. So the joke's on you, mickmackey1!

server down

Squeaksoutloud wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2055948304/64/#post69033898

The excitement beginning 7 years ago!

Interesting. One to show to those who doubt the science of long range forecasting.

George Sunsnow

Currently -1.4 here near Arklow
Overnight low -2.7c

Very frosty

JCX BXC

server down wrote: »

Interesting. One to show to those who doubt the science of long range forecasting.

To be fair, even James Madden forecast that one, a broken clocks right twice a day!

server down

JCX BXC wrote: »

To be fair, even James Madden forecast that one, a broken clocks right twice a day!

James Madden forecasts that every year. MT was specific about an extreme event and even a white Christmas.

hatrickpatrick

Have a look at the latest ECM and the 06z GFS just rolling out now - both are showing the persistent hints of a vortex under pressure by a "blob" of still low, but relatively higher (compared to the vortex itself) pressure trying to establish itself over Greenland. This has been showing up repeatedly on the models for the last couple of days, and while it's not on its own enough to signal a proper cold spell, it does mean that the boundary line of subzero upper temperatures is south of Ireland, which itself is a positive sign that this winter has potential.

None of this means we should expect anything, but at least some of the ingredients are there it seems - we just need them to stack up in the right alignment. To me that already sets this winter apart from recent ones in which such signals have been almost non existent (I still remember the super El Nino year of 2015 as being one of the most depressing winters in terms of forecasting, with not even a hint of anything interesting for us to get excited about) - this year is clearly one to watch.

Gonzo

nagdefy wrote: »

Of all the winter charts i've come across the 12/13th January 1987 probably tops them all for me. We speak about the improbability of 2 events like 2010 in the one decade. However, we're due a proper easterly.. Early Feb 2009 and the end of December 1996/start of Jan 1997 were so so. But a really proper one

Take that!



And that!

I remember that event well, solid week off school, spent the days building a snow mountain out the back garden to see how long it would last, while most of the snow was gone after 10 days, my snow mountain lasted over a month!
those were fun times.

Back then of course I didn't wish for snow, snow was an expectation each and every winter! Now it's a once in a decade event for most of Leinster.

Seven years now without proper measurable snow so we are definitely starting to move into the overdue territory at this stage. All we need is one very lucky break for one week this Winter, lets hope this winter is the one!.

patneve2

Nice to see some wonderful reanalysis charts. What we are really overdue, in my opinion, is a proper atlantic rainbelt/continental air battle. In these parts, I believe this hasn't occurred since 1982. Okay, in 2013 we came close (I remember hours and hours of moderate rain/sleet and a temp of 2/3C), but that particular set-up only really delivered the goods to Northern Ireland. The January 1982 chart is a real beauty in my opinion - extremely rare to see such a "kiss" between a frigid easterly and a moisture packed Atlantic system.

server down

^

England gets more snow from Atlantic Continental conflicts a lot more dont they? In particular the snow lovers on NetWeather get excited about Channel lows, which are atlantic systems that move up through the English channel in winter. With a cold continent this will bring easterlies from the continent as it approaches, and then veer north - north west. With snow cover that can bring snow as well, although those winds wont be as cold. Ideally then you want a high pressure to follow.

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You're not auld, I am.

There is also a period of lower pressure near the end of October compared with most of November. Some days in late October get down pretty close to the winter minimum values.

Were you aware of any of those from your 1981-2010 work?

Yep, there is a defined downward trend in mean pressure values during the 2nd half of October especially, possible one of the most marked in the entire year. Summer, as you say, also shows some interesting patterns.

In addition to the MSLP data that I downloaded from the ERA set, I also grabbed temperature and wind data (including direction) which might be interesting to work with to ascertain if both the means these parameters follow a reasonably defined path during the winter season.

George Sunsnow

Channel lows can be good for the east coast here snow wise as the isobars tighten strengthening an easterly or northeasterly
They can have warm sectors that can bring rain to the south coast of England

Jan 87’s spell contained quite a few ice days even with the wind and snow
On a thread here somewhere there’s a photo of the avoca river in Arklow frozen and covered in snow
There was a snowstorm on the Friday at the peak of it that spread down from Scandinavia
Ian mccaskill on bbc weather referred to it as the ‘great white Siberian army’ approaching
It was an incredibly snowy day in Dublin,the 48a couldn’t get up to Ballinteer so I remember walking to Dundrum to get a bus into town to catch the lunchtime train to Arklow
That train was under pressure going through Glenealy to Rathdrum,It was like something out of a World War Two movie of a train in a Russian mountain or Romania somewhere
The drifts were about 3 foot deep walking from Arklow town the couple of miles out to the farm at home and the snow was like white sand falling and also spinning up and drifting

beefburrito

I remember that snow in Dublin.
My grandfather was in hospital.
A long time ago now.
The streamer's were epic,loved looking at it.
Heavy showers of snow.
We got on the train back to Limerick,the snow was still stuck to the train when we pulled into the station.
Got out expecting snow everywhere,as it was dark when we arrived.

Got out to the carpark.

I knew exactly how the boy felt when he woke up and the snowman had melted....

sryanbruen

patneve2 wrote: »

Nice to see some wonderful reanalysis charts. What we are really overdue, in my opinion, is a proper atlantic rainbelt/continental air battle. In these parts, I believe this hasn't occurred since 1982. Okay, in 2013 we came close (I remember hours and hours of moderate rain/sleet and a temp of 2/3C), but that particular set-up only really delivered the goods to Northern Ireland. The January 1982 chart is a real beauty in my opinion - extremely rare to see such a "kiss" between a frigid easterly and a moisture packed Atlantic system.

30 March 2010 was one for the east/northeast of Ireland. I recorded blizzards that day after heavy rain on the 29th.

George Sunsnow

Here’s the frozen snow covered Avoca river in Arklow from Jan 87

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/931225532162891776

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

So, more powerful Polar Vortex possible going by this but no model is showing us in a very zonal pattern.

I should have kept my mouth shut :P.

sryanbruen

For anybody wondering here is the forecast that is behind tonight's UK newspaper headlines and stories (if you've seen them).

Enjoy!

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf

JCX BXC

I don't know what to make of that really, I won't put much faith into it. However at least it seems to have SOME basis, even if misguided, as opposed to the regular James Madden "it'll freeze from November until February"

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

I don't know what to make of that really, I won't put much faith into it. However at least it seems to have SOME basis, even if misguided, as opposed to the regular James Madden "it'll freeze from November until February"

Yeah I shared it to have a laugh and not take seriously at all.

MJohnston

sryanbruen wrote: »

For anybody wondering here is the forecast that is behind tonight's UK newspaper headlines and stories (if you've seen them).

Enjoy!

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf

I like the shade thrown on this by Helen of the Met Office:

‘There’s every likelihood we will see some snow in January and it will be cold at times – but that’s winter for you.’

Meteorite58

Ah the joy of snow

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/932196044384989184

Buffalobill29

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Ah the joy of snow

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/932196044384989184

Ah tbh we're not asking for that much snow. A few inches for a few days where I am and that would be grand...I have seen snow but I haven't seen laying snow for almost 7 years.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Watched the weather for the week earlier and going by that next weekend is to become very cold with high pressure building over Ireland. We are expected to be under a northerly airflow with showers turning to snow on northern hills first after an unsettled week with tomorrow been exceptionally mild and heavy rain over the next few days. They didn't give any indication of what the temperatures might be but I would say we could see our first really hard frosts if next week's forecast pans out. I'm keeping my fingers crossed as I know this could change over the coming days.

Elmer Blooker

Valerie Plump Hairdresser wrote: »

Watched the weather for the week earlier and going by that next weekend is to become very cold with high pressure building over Ireland.

Mixed feelings. I love sunny frosty weather but am suspicious of winters that are early starters. I feel the same way about summers that start in April and May, it usually means a poor summer. November 1988 was cold and frosty and followed by the most shocking winter I've ever experienced when a Euro high or a Bartlett as some call it remained stationary for weeks on end.
I would gladly take a month more of mild weather and get a PROPER winter.




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890116.gif

esposito

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClgYM7fmjLQ

Skip to 10:10 for the Christmas Day forecast from 1995. I'd love Christmas to be like this.

Totally agree Elmer, would much rather the cold kicked in well into December not late November.

Danno

Interesting graphic from the BBC for this Wednesday, 22nd November. :eek:

highdef

Danno wrote: »

Interesting graphic from the BBC for this Wednesday, 22nd November. :eek:

Going by the forecast temperatures, that makes no sense at all