Winter 2017-18: Discussion

highdef

kod87 wrote: »

True, it gets very cold during cold spells but very dry normally. The problem is always lack of precipitation making it inland.

I live a little bit south west of Kilcock. There have been times where we've had easterly winds and rain or sleet showers on the east coast pushing westwards. Eventually they die out as their fuel source (the Irish Sea) has been cut off but there is often a sweet spot where you get the benefit of heavy sticking snow but before the showers have lost their oomph.
Several times, I have been working during the day in Dublin and there will be rain or maybe sleet showers during the day. Heading home, by the time I get to Maynooth, the showers may be of snow but not sticking so well. By the time I turn off the motorway at Kilcock, the snow will be sticking more readily. As soon as I turn off the main roads onto the local hill roads, the snow could be several inches deep.

Further west, the snow depths decrease and then once you get to Kinnegad or so, it would be dry again, albeit freezing.

nagdefy

HighLine wrote: »

There was also a prolonged cold spell during January 2010. Came across these pics recently that I took on the 4th of January in the Wicklow Mountains (a good excuse to share because they are fairly epic in terms of snow). The Freelander 4x4 seen in the first image remained there for several weeks.

Absolutely beautiful!

nagdefy

These are not pretty snow pics. I'll post a few after but just to show what altitude can do for depth of snow in the midlands. January and March 2010 respectively. I'm 6ft 3in so you can gauge the depth! A few 'prettier' ones later!

nagdefy

Again November/December 2010 when we didn't have a very large fall for the region. More in February 2009 for example but i've no pics.

sryanbruen

Since we're all sharing pics, I thought I'd share my favourite ones that I've gathered through the years from Google, Met Éireann etc.

January 2010



October 2003



January 1987



December 2001





December 2010





January 2011

nagdefy

Wasn't December 2001 so mild for most of the month. The picture looks like South Africa:)

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

Wasn't December 2001 so mild for most of the month. The picture looks like South Africa:)

2001/02 was a front loaded Winter with a cold, dry and sunny December but a very mild and wet January/February - the mildest January on record. The IMT for the month was 4.9c, which is -0.7c below the average. There was little to no rain during mid-month from the 7th to the 19th. With that came plenty of sunshine. In fact, it was Ireland's sunniest December on record with 2010 taking a safe second. Cork Airport recorded 104 hours of sunshine, a new record for December. As to be expected with such a sunny month, there'd be a lot of clear skies. Clear skies in Winter leads to frost. December was full of severe frosts. -9.0c was the lowest maximum of the month. Some places had their third consecutive White Christmas - that picture of snow was indeed Christmas Day.

Information as always is originally from Met Éireann

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

2001/02 was a front loaded Winter with a cold, dry and sunny December but a very mild and wet January/February - the mildest January on record. The IMT for the month was 4.9c, which is -0.7c below the average. There was little to no rain during mid-month from the 7th to the 19th. With that came plenty of sunshine. In fact, it was Ireland's sunniest December on record with 2010 taking a safe second. Cork Airport recorded 104 hours of sunshine, a new record for December. As to be expected with such a sunny month, there'd be a lot of clear skies. Clear skies in Winter leads to frost. December was full of severe frosts. -9.0c was the lowest maximum of the month. Some places had their third consecutive White Christmas - that picture of snow was indeed Christmas Day.

Information as always is originally from Met Éireann

My memory was of a mild sunny start continuing on from a mild autumn. Though i remember it changing alright.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

My memory was of a mild sunny start continuing on from a mild autumn. Though i remember it changing alright.

Yeah, the month started off rather mild coming from a very mild November and one of the warmest Octobers on record though September was the coldest since 1994 despite being slightly milder than average.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Posters are reminded to refrain from direct personal attacks on any person whether they are members of boards.ie or not.

Thank you.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

kod87 wrote: »

True, it gets very cold during cold spells but very dry normally. The problem is always lack of precipitation making it inland.

Yes I agree i live well inland and in 2010 we got the sub zero temperatures but very little snow but everywhere looked like a Winter wonderland. The only time we tend to get heavy snow is if low pressure coming in off the Atlantic hits cold air over us and that doesn't even seem to happen anymore.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I have moved posts in relation to potential (cold) weather this week/weekend to Autumn discussion thread. Winter does not start until December 1st!

sryanbruen

Both indexes, NAO and AO expected to go up to neutral or slightly positive in early December. Although towards the end of the first week of December, it does seem they want to bring the AO back into negative territory.

sryanbruen

As for the stratosphere, the GFS for the past two days has been showing signs of some stratospheric warming going to take place over towards Siberia towards the end of its runs in early December.

Historically wise, a SSW event in December is not good if your preference is cold Winter conditions. The two best times for SSW events going by previous occurrences are November and especially January.

Far from a SSW right now, that's for sure, if this stays consistent on the model.

Periscal

I hope that warming over Eastern Siberia will not push the Polar Vortex over to Greenland as per last couple of winters, GFS has a warm bias for those temperatures over recent years as well

Soccarboy11

Anybody get any good headlines yet from the papers with the latest news? All I have seen so far is 'Ireland to get first taste of SNOW as temps PLUNGE by 10 degrees' from the Irish mirror, really pointing out the 'Snow' part. Just wait for the 'Prepare for the BLIZZARD about to hit Ireland' ones :pac:

Loughc

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Anybody get any good headlines yet from the papers with the latest news? All I have seen so far is 'Ireland to get first taste of SNOW as temps PLUNGE by 10 degrees' from the Irish mirror, really pointing out the 'Snow' part. Just wait for the 'Prepare for the BLIZZARD about to hit Ireland' ones :pac:

https://www.facebook.com/Beat102103/posts/1778972252147910

This is fine fine journalism

sryanbruen

I know little to nothing about the MJO index but I thought I'd share this:

JJJJNR

Is this a wind up or are we talking obliterated.

MJohnston

JJJJNR wrote: »

Is this a wind up or are we talking obliterated.

Neither - here we are just posting model charts that are predictions for many weeks out from now, which means that they have a very low probability of being accurate.

Any model charts that are for later than 120 hours from today, about 5 days, are taken to be in what regular posters know as "Fantasy Island" - in other words they're unlikely to occur but are nice to dream about. Most of the regulars here also won't mention that this is what they are, but that's just because we're all kind of used to it.

If you're referring to the tabloid headlines, ignore them - they usually latch onto one small unlikely part of medium-range forecasts because it suits a sensationalist headline.

Buffalobill29

MJohnston wrote: »

Neither - here we are just posting model charts that are predictions for many weeks out from now, which means that they have a very low probability of being accurate.

Any model charts that are for later than 120 hours from today, about 5 days, are taken to be in what regular posters know as "Fantasy Island" - in other words they're unlikely to occur but are nice to dream about. Most of the regulars here also won't mention that this is what they are, but that's just because we're all kind of used to it.

If you're referring to the tabloid headlines, ignore them - they usually latch onto one small unlikely part of medium-range forecasts because it suits a sensationalist headline.

Why would it have a low probability of being accurate? It's winter so either it will be a cold winter or it won't. There no 'low ptobability' prediction, they're all 50/50 probabilities because everyone is predicting either cold or mild.

sryanbruen

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

Why would it have a low probability of being accurate? It's winter so either it will be a cold winter or it won't. There no 'low ptobability' prediction, they're all 50/50 probabilities because everyone is predicting either cold or mild.

'Cause there is a lot that goes into forecasting. Can't just say cold or mild. You have to forecast the pattern, where's the low centre going to end up, what is the maximum pressure of the block etc.

Not to mention, all the variables you have to consider within one forecast.

Pangea

The tops of the Bluestacks are white here in Donegal, first snow of the winter.

JCX BXC

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

It's winter so either it will be a cold winter or it won't. or mild.

Really? I disagree, I think it's clear it's not that simple!

I'm not going to focus on all the reasons why I think that's not an accurate statement, but I would like to make one point.

What does one define as 'cold'. Could you define a cold winter as one with many frosts but no snow? Would people not consider this a cold one? Would people consider a winter with few mild spells and temperatures in the low single figures alot?

Or would people only consider a winter with a deep cold, a cold winter?

There's not true definition, so you run into trouble here before you even start.

sryanbruen

If we can get another double digit day length run, November's Sunspot AV is going to be the lowest since Autumn 2009.

MJohnston

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

Why would it have a low probability of being accurate?

Because they're charts that forecast a very specific arrangement of various meteorological conditions - they might be slightly off, they might be extremely far off. At a 2 week range, the probability that the chart will be even close to accurate is low. Note that this doesn't mean that the chart might not end up being accurate, it's just too far out to say it is definitely going to be.

It's winter so either it will be a cold winter or it won't.

Well no, that's far from true. For starters, there a multitude of different ways that it could end up being a cold winter!

SeaBreezes

I'm afraid I know nothing about the MJO chart or phases mentioned. Would anyone interpret it for me? I'm happy with the comparison to
2010 but in terms of what? Thanks in advance!

Aurora1966

Cold winter on cards lads, the blackbird and the robin who venture into my kitchen told me last week whilst nibbling a few bread crumbs.

Nettle Soup

Aurora1966 wrote: »

Cold winter on cards lads, the blackbird and the robin who venture into my kitchen told me last week whilst nibbling a few bread crumbs.

I did notice that the holly bushes are laden with berries this year. I have never seen them so bountiful. I am sure that is a sign of something!

Oscar Bravo

I remember watching this