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Winter 2017-18: Discussion
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Extremely worrying! If we get stuck in a rut like this it could last a very long time like 88-89 and 97-98. If it happens I'll see yiz in March! Sorry for the negativity but as I said, worrying.
Just a tad Ott there, one chart at day 6 is never going to dictate 3 months of weather - never mind the fact it's not as bad as you make it out, check the NH charts for the real picture.
The models seem all over the place still - that storm in the Pacific seems to be causing all sorts of problems, albeit they seem to keep pushing out any very cold shot. A battleground scenario seems to be a new theme appearing also.0 -
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Winter has a long roller coaster ahead just like any year, so no need to get all emotional about it when tomorrow is the first day of meteorological Winter - astronomical Winter does not even start 'til December 21st. Winter can get going as late as March, as seen from 2013. It can get going as late as April, as seen in 1983, 1986, 1998 etc. It can get going in the second half of January, as seen from 1947. Basically saying that it's a long way down before we can confirm to lay our backs on Winter and move on for the rest of 2018.
Nothing in my analogues were pointing towards an interesting December anyway. I wouldn't mind a second consecutive non-interesting or benign December either to be honest. I've had enough interesting Decembers in the 2010s..... December 2015 on its own was a bit too much.
I think I better begin working on my analogues for the season that everybody is so interested in right now, Spring 2018
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Think some people expect to see this every year:
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Extremely worrying! If we get stuck in a rut like this it could last a very long time like 88-89 and 97-98. If it happens I'll see yiz in March! Sorry for the negativity but as I said, worrying.
The ECM 12z has the Azores High in the middle of the Atlantic but it's so big and stubborn that it's completely blocking off the zonal flow.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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...Elmer Blooker wrote: »Extremely worrying! If we get stuck in a rut like this it could last a very long time like 88-89 and 97-98. If it happens I'll see yiz in March! Sorry for the negativity but as I said, worrying.0 -
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Weathercheck wrote: »Serious CAA here, at our latitude you'd expect a synoptic like this to occur more often then it does... but i don't think we have seen a forecast synoptic like this actually occur in a long time.
Sharp enough
Yeah the likes of that would foster serious West Coast snow showers eventually even or especially into limerick and Clare because it’s deep enough to wash out Atlantic maratime influence and just get on with the job of creating strong convection in eventually cold enough sky to surface air for snow at sea level
It’s the gfs 6Z though
While I don’t see where sustained useful Cold is going to come from,the fact the mighty ecm can’t get things right at T-96 means anything’s possible
The above would certainly be wonderful eventually for the north north west and southwest0 -
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