Winter 2017-18: Discussion

ninebeanrows

Yes - please

ninebeanrows

An actual snowstorm !

ninebeanrows

Some agreement from the UKMO tonight....

Get the ramp out of the loft.

Kermit.de.frog

Everyone remain calm!

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Everyone remain calm!

The ECM probably won't be long bringing us back to earth.

Gaoth Laidir

These charts should be in the FI thread as they're 6 days out and in all probability not going to materialise...as usual!

Plus...it's the GFS!

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

These charts should be in the FI thread as they're 6 days out and in all probability not going to materialise...as usual!

Plus...it's the GFS!

The UKMO is showing something similar? Until the ECM is onboard and it's within 72 hours I don't get too interested.

squarecircles

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

These charts should be in the FI thread as they're 6 days out and in all probability not going to materialise...as usual!

Plus...it's the GFS!

my god youre tone is always so negative.

Gaoth Laidir

squarecircles wrote: »

my god youre tone is always so negative.

Gaoth Laidir

squarecircles wrote: »

my god youre tone is always so negative realistic.

FYP

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

The UKMO is showing something similar? Until the ECM is onboard and it's within 72 hours I don't get too interested.

Something similar, but in all likelihood not as cold. The GFS is giving uppers 2-3 degrees colder than the ECM, ICON, BOM and GEM. That's usually the case with the GFS.

You're right, show me the ECM showing -9 uppers over Ireland on Monday evening and then I'll stop being so "negative".

squarecircles

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Something similar, but in all likelihood not as cold. The GFS is giving uppers 2-3 degrees colder than the ECM, ICON, BOM and GEM. That's usually the case with the GFS.

You're right, show me the ECM showing -9 uppers over Ireland on Monday evening and then I'll stop being so "negative".

Nah,this winter is finished,I'd say will return to zonal conditions soon enough perhaps.
Can't see the Ecm showing -9 upppers,the gfs will probably have a different story tomorrow.

Puss pie and p*ss misery is all we get here in Ireland,the drab anticyclonic gloom has returned here.jaysus I could really get into this misery porn outlook.

Gaoth Laidir

squarecircles wrote: »

Nah,this winter is finished,I'd say will return to zonal conditions soon enough perhaps.

And you call ME negative!

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

And you call ME negative!

Met Eireann? :pac:;)

BLIZZARD7

GL is right, most likely the low will be nowhere near as intense as the GFS has it. UKMO still looks very cold though and so far I'm inclined to think the ECM has been performing quite badly these past few days.

Having said that, It is interesting to see this storm even being modeled at day 6/7. After all we did have hurricane Ophelia this year, anything can happen.

hatrickpatrick

Those who were saying "game over for a blocked December" might feel a little silly looking at the 12z GFS

Gaoth Laidir

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GL is right, most likely the low will be nowhere near as intense as the GFS has it. UKMO still looks very cold though and so far I'm inclined to think the ECM has been performing quite badly these past few days.

Having said that, It is interesting to see this storm even being modeled at day 6/7. After all we did have hurricane Ophelia this year, anything can happen.

The ECM's been fairly good, though. Here's the 6 day forecast for 00Z today (from 25th November) compared to the actual analysis. Very good, it has to be said.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Would be better to keep charts over +120hrs in the FI thread and keep the winter thread for general discussion.

Thanks

hatrickpatrick

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Mod Note: Would be better to keep charts over +120hrs in the FI thread and keep the winter thread for general discussion.

Thanks

Woops, thought that was the thread I was posting in

George Sunsnow

Time for a song methinks

Altogether now for the chorus

https://youtu.be/J3s3F1VXFQ4

Harry Palmr

I always enjoy the tears when the cold doesn't happen as predicted in F1 charts

Cold enough right now cheers. A fine day and thankfully no wind this time. It's easy for people who live in offices to want to see snow but some of us really don't want it as it damages business.

Meteorite58

Just looking at the set up for next Weds going into Thurs and reminds me of the very wet day we had on the 22 -11-17 leading to flooding in quite a few places. The meeting of the cold and warm air mass over Ireland could produce a lot of rainfall before the colder air mass takes over leading to more wintry precipitation. No shortage of rain here in Kerry these last few weeks, ground is sodden.

Chart from the 22-11-17



Chart for next Weds

sryanbruen

TWO seem to agree with me on the most part for this coming Winter's possibilities.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/936870296618856449

George Sunsnow

Mildest evening of the week
Currently 7.4c in Arklow

sryanbruen

This chart is courtesy of GWV. It shows the mean monthly sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 24 up to and including November 2017. After a huge rise in solar activity in early September (which is completely normal with previous weak solar cycles like SC 24), we've taken a tumble. The mean monthly sunspot number for November 2017 was comparable to this time in late 2009. However, a big difference being that 2009/10 came after solar minimum whilst 2017/18 is going (or nearly) into solar minimum.

Meteorite58

The NW, W and SW soaking up much of the rain on Weds. Most of the rainfall on high ground there it would seem to me. Looks like a blustery grey day with low cloud and varying amounts of rainfall. Thurs possibly thundery in the new set up.

Clonmel1000

Nice morning here today bit of brightness around and thankfully not to cold or windy. Looks like the next couple of days will be benign thankfully.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Just watched the RTE weather for the week and the words bitterly cold was mentioned . After a spell of heavy rain passes down over Ireland on Wednesday winds will turn northerly pulling down polar air Wednesday night over the country with showers turning increasingly wintry with snow showers in Ulster, Connaucht and West Munster. Other areas my see some of the white stuff also. The cold snap is expected to last in to next weekend with temperatures rising slightly next Sunday. I'm hopeful this time we might see some snow showers in my area this time round as we were very unfortunate not to get any snow durning the last cold snap.

BLIZZARD7

GFS ensembles showing 10+ days with mean 2m temps below 5c for Dublin area.