Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Soccarboy11

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's not impossible to get earthquakes in places not on plate boundaries, just like volcanoes in areas called hotspots.

Fun fact Soccarboy11: Co. Clare had an earthquake on 7 May 2010 which measured at a magnitude of 2.6 on the Richter Scale.

Very interesting, well I know what I am going to researching for the day now

Donegal Storm

Had a few in Donegal over the years as well, I 'heard' one about 10 years ago but didn't feel any shaking, just sounded like a jet high overhead so I didn't think anything of it, only the next morning when I read the news that realised what it was

pad199207

Experienced two on a holiday to Torrevieja in 2013. The first was very frightening as everything fell off the walls. Didnt know what the hell was going on.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

Experienced two on a holiday to Torrevieja in 2013. The first was very frightening as everything fell off the walls. Didnt know what the hell was going on.

I was in Torrevieja during that for at least one of them. I remember it happening late at night, I wasn't sure what it was at the time then googled it the next morning and found out it was an earthquake. It was more of a loud rumble than seeing anything shake.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

I was in Torrevieja during that for at least one of them. I remember it happening late at night, I wasn't sure what it was at the time then googled it the next morning and found out it was an earthquake. It was more of a loud rumble than seeing anything shake.

We were in the Guardamar Del Segura area and the epicentre was like 2 miles away. Thats right we were woken up by it and me and my mate were told to GET OUT by her grandmother who lives there. There was another one then that afternoon but was smaller.

I felt lucky in a way to experience it twice on one holiday, just thanks be to god they werent major ones....

sryanbruen

I'm loving the bizarre and unusual nature, let's keep it going . Only makes things more interesting.

sryanbruen

As far as my eyes can see, GFS 12z has small upgrades on the easterly. These charts are for Wednesday so out of FI.

mel.b

I hope this is ok to ask here. I'm off to Northern Norway and Sweden at the end of next week (hoping to see the aurora). 'If' this weather comes off that is being talked about at the moment, what are the implications for that part of the world - freezing cold? snowing? clear? mucky?

Clonmel1000

Can someone tell me what this beast from the east brings? Sunny days and cold nights?

sryanbruen

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Can someone tell me what this beast from the east brings? Sunny days and cold nights?

Blizzards and gloomy cold days :P, at least a proper beast from the east does - January 1987 styled.

In Summer, it brings blue skies and hot conditions.

Donegal Storm

Depends on how everything is oriented but in general it'd lead to far drier and more settled conditions with plenty of sunshine possible and a chance of snow showers mainly in the east. I think everyone would take that after months of damp westerlies

More extreme cold and heavy snow still a possibility though it's consistently pushed back every day

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Can someone tell me what this beast from the east brings? Sunny days and cold nights?

Should bring exactly that normally. Occasionally it brings snow when conditions are right, but they're normally dry winds as they're from the continent.

NAGDEFI

The July 1984 earthquake was felt on the eastern side of Ireland. Remember it well. Cutlery shaking in old dressers. Amazing and scary experience.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Ll%C5%B7n_Peninsula_earthquake

NAGDEFI

If easterlies arrive in March it will be a more traditional weather regieme from the 1960s back through history.

My mam told me there was always a fear that east wind would bring flu and cold from Europe in the early 20th and back into the 19th century.

Her grandmother had a saying:

'Welcome the cold blast from the North but lie low while March blows her East winds'.:)

sryanbruen

Wow, the GFS 06z control run on the NAO ensemble today going off the scale. :P. The mean is extremely negative too.

sryanbruen

Severe cold has been backdated (again).... I'm really starting to understand the frustration from some.

JanuarySnowstor

This probable Easterly should really have its own thread here now. The potential severity if it happens and indeed just the threat of it warrants one imo

sryanbruen

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

This probable Easterly should really have its own thread here now. The potential severity if it happens and indeed just the threat of it warrants one imo

Why don't you start one then?

I personally don't think so just yet.

BLIZZARD7

I'd give it til tomorrow evening and see if we've moved forward.

force eleven

For cold weather lovers if it looks too good to be true at T240, thats exactly what it is. We're still at least a week out from possibly the coldest spell since 2010 but more likely a more traditional drier, colder interlude with plenty of frosts upcoming, impossible to predict any snow at this stage. The stronger sun won't stop a bitter east wind feeling like cold sharp steel on the face if it comes. I will take some nice dry weather for sure and anything else is a bonus.

sryanbruen

Netweather posters continue to give some brilliant posts (another strange thing with this season :rolleyes:)! Think you should give it a read if you're feeling down on the beasterly like myself.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89342-model-output-discussion-post-ssw-will-it-turn-cold/?page=98&tab=comments#comment-3758133

sryanbruen

Latest zonal winds GEFS.

George Sunsnow

This is the issue ,will it always be pushed out a day?
It’s definitely going to be into March now tbh
Every week is a lot of extra marginality given that the end result will not be one of the extremes we've seen modeled

I definitely think it’s going to come and the fact models have flirted with -10s and even -12 850s out to Ennis increases the likelihood of the actual result bringing them at least into the east
But for heavens sake weather Sh1t or get off the pot

Wine Goddess

sryanbruen wrote: »

Netweather posters continue to give some brilliant posts (another strange thing with this season :rolleyes:)! Think you should give it a read if you're feeling down on the beasterly like myself.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89342-model-output-discussion-post-ssw-will-it-turn-cold/?page=98&tab=comments#comment-3758133

Really interesting to read even if I only understand half of what they are saying!

George Sunsnow

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

This probable Easterly should really have its own thread here now. The potential severity if it happens and indeed just the threat of it warrants one imo

No it doesn’t warrant one (yet)
There isn’t even a modicum of certainty yet on whether there’ll be enough in this to cause disruption

There’s at least a week of benign weather ahead if not more and at least 4 or 5 days to go in my opinion before we have a reasonable idea what’s coming
Assuming this doesn’t go off the rails ,next Thursday is time enough for starting a stand alone thread

George Sunsnow

Latest video from the met office
It gives the very simple reason why they’ve put heavy snow into the medium term forecast on their site
It also again suggests that they are hunching that the high will more likely than unlikely bring in the freezing easterlies
It’s yet another reason not to get to hung up on models run to run as the thinking here really is a lot simpler than anything convoluted posted on netweather
It’s childs play really
1.set up the easterly
2. Have it love you longtime
3. It will advect advect advect and keep on advecting
So in the light of number 3 above you will get your -10’s and -12 850’s and better still you will be getting a constant replenishment of super cold thicknesses ie air that’s freezing and maintains a freeze to ground level or near enough such that pure snow is all that precipitates when there’s precip

Ergo you will have spells in the longevity of the easterly (or in its SE or NE veer) where there will be heavy enough and constant enough precip to give fair cover

Anyway here’s Alex who doesn’t expand it as good as me

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155584777294209/

sryanbruen

GEFS 12z for the NAO, barely any difference from the 06z. Negative throughout.

Donegal Storm

One for syran, just wondering are there any precedents to a strong easterly in late Feb/early March? Obviously we've had plenty of Spring blizzards down the years but they're usually from Atlantic lows undercutting the high, I'm just talking a direct easterly feed.

Just trying to gauge what sort of temperatures & conditions we could expect if the eternal 10 day charts ever come closer. We had -12C 850hPa temps in the second week of March 2013 and I don't think it delivered anything too noteworthy

George Sunsnow

Btw I’m watching the first and brilliant Bourne identity
There’s lots of snow in it
That lass driving the mini is earning every bit of that 20000 dollars driving that mini in that snow
She’d want 30 to 40 k driving Dublin to Cork here in similar conditions and might not make it

BLIZZARD7

Donegal Storm wrote: »

One for syran, just wondering are there any precedents to a strong easterly in late Feb/early March? Obviously we've had plenty of Spring blizzards down the years but they're usually from Atlantic lows undercutting the high, I'm just talking a direct easterly feed.

Just trying to gauge what sort of temperatures & conditions we could expect if the eternal 10 day charts ever come closer. We had -12C 850hPa temps in the second week of March 2013 and I don't think it delivered anything too noteworthy

1947 is the most extreme one that comes to mind, there was another notable instance in the 1950's I can't remember specific year.

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's a list I've made of all the 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 ones.

This is great syranbruen, cheers!

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

One for syran, just wondering are there any precedents to a strong easterly in late Feb/early March? Obviously we've had plenty of Spring blizzards down the years but they're usually from Atlantic lows undercutting the high, I'm just talking a direct easterly feed.

Just trying to gauge what sort of temperatures & conditions we could expect if the eternal 10 day charts ever come closer. We had -12C 850hPa temps in the second week of March 2013 and I don't think it delivered anything too noteworthy

I'll try and answer this tomorrow.

As for the GFS 18z, I see some people are losing their knickers over it. Calm down! :P I'll have to see a trend going before to get excited about it, sick of disappointment.

sryanbruen

Rougies wrote: »

This is great syranbruen, cheers!

If it's any help, I will go and do other years too.

Aurora1966

sryanbruen wrote:

The NAO is going into negative territory. The AO is going into negative territory. These two things tell me that there is blocking going to take place over the Arctic Circle and low pressure is going to develop over the Azores or Mediterranean where normally you see that pest to the southwest giving us coldies the middle finger .

This will happen as per usual, the north and east may get substantial snow from this event as this cold air from Russia will be locked in on an easterly windflow, this easterly looks strong must say, I think the east coast could be under the gun from next Saturday on for at least a week into March. Lets see how this unfolds

Larbre34

This forum is fast losing its integrity. Folk losing their reason over stuff progged at +192 and beyond over on the model thread. Give it 5 days and the disappointment will be suicidal.

Seriously lads, its Winter in Ireland, there is no justification for detailed treatment of any extreme prognosis until it gets to about +48. Personally i dont raise an eyebrow for less than +36.

torres9kop

Larbre34 wrote: »

This forum is fast losing its integrity. Folk losing their reason over stuff progged at +192 and beyond over on the model thread. Give it 5 days and the disappointment will be suicidal.

Seriously lads, its Winter in Ireland, there is no justification for detailed treatment of any extreme prognosis until it gets to about +48. Personally i dont raise an eyebrow for less than +36.

Bah Humbug 🙂

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

This forum is fast losing its integrity. Folk losing their reason over stuff progged at +192 and beyond over on the model thread. Give it 5 days and the disappointment will be suicidal.

Seriously lads, its Winter in Ireland, there is no justification for detailed treatment of any extreme prognosis until it gets to about +48. Personally i dont raise an eyebrow for less than +36.

It's called the Fantasy Island thread for a reason.

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

Should bring exactly that normally. Occasionally it brings snow when conditions are right, but they're normally dry winds as they're from the continent.

Thanks would take that now

BLIZZARD7

Larbre34 wrote: »

This forum is fast losing its integrity. Folk losing their reason over stuff progged at +192 and beyond over on the model thread. Give it 5 days and the disappointment will be suicidal.

Seriously lads, its Winter in Ireland, there is no justification for detailed treatment of any extreme prognosis until it gets to about +48. Personally i dont raise an eyebrow for less than +36.

Fantasy Island. Nobody said it's going to happen. It caught people's attention because well personally speaking it's the snowiest run I've ever seen and I've been watching models for over 10 years. The fact the models are even showing these ideas is in itself incredible- and after a record breaking SSW who knows... The point is the potential is there otherwise the models wouldn't show it.

Larbre34

MJohnston wrote: »

It's called the Fantasy Island thread for a reason.

Yeah it used to be. Lads starting threads in recent weeks on the back of it, hysterical reactions. Sure there are runs progging deep cold and every day they are pushed out to day 10 and not bearing out. When we get to July will it still be snow at +240?

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yeah it used to be. Lads starting threads in recent weeks on the back of it, hysterical reactions. Sure there are runs progging deep cold and every day they are pushed out to day 10 and not bearing out. When we get to July will it still be snow at +240?

And yet all of the recent cold event threads had snow falls. If anyone is being hysterical here, it's not the ones in the FI thread.

Rougies

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yeah it used to be. Lads starting threads in recent weeks on the back of it, hysterical reactions. Sure there are runs progging deep cold and every day they are pushed out to day 10 and not bearing out. When we get to July will it still be snow at +240?

What threads were started based on FI model output (>120hrs out)? I don't think there were any.

If you don't want to read about possible and plausible scenarios maybe you should stick to the "current conditions" thread?

Kermit.de.frog

2010 was the only time threads were started beyond 120 hrs as far as I remember.

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

2010 was the only time threads were started beyond 120 hrs as far as I remember.

Maybe, and if so they were probably justified given the synoptics at the time. 120hrs isn't a hard limit to FI when you've got the polar vortex over your head.

Oscar Bravo

Sooner the easterly kicks in the better. Its wet with extensive fog / mist down in the hills here in Castlebar. Horrible day.

Gonzo

I'm refusing to get excited until it comes into a far more reliable time frame, it's still basically a week away. If current FI charts are still showing the same next Thursday from the 25th onward then i'll start to get excited.

Cantona's Collars

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Sooner the easterly kicks in the better. Its wet with extensive fog / mist down in the hills here in Castlebar. Horrible day.

It's no better here in the South East.Grey skies and rain.

Tigerandahalf

It has been a horrible winter. First in a long time that I have found very long.

Hopefully with a better forecast next week we might be in for a better spell of weather.

Looking forward to some bright sunny days where you can get out and do stuff. So hard to get young kids out and about in the weather we have had.

Cantona's Collars

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

It has been a horrible winter. First in a long time that I have found very long.

Hopefully with a better forecast next week we might be in for a better spell of weather.

Looking forward to some bright sunny days where you can get out and do stuff. So hard to get young kids out and about in the weather we have had.

Lidl are on the ball with kids wet gear on sale next week. All I can say is thank feck I raised my garden and put down an artificial lawn.

Nettle Soup

What is the rough start date for this cold spell from the east? I am thinking 25th of February?