Winter 2017-18: Discussion

gabeeg

Here's an example of what I meant earlier, sped up to depict a day in 60 seconds

https://framer.cloud/HWPKK/1/index.html?cloud=1

Rougies

MJohnston wrote: »

Don't want to put this in the technical thread, but anyone want to fact-check this graphic I made?

Beautiful. I think you've swapped the ECM and UKMO duration times though? Run start times look about right.

MJohnston

Rougies wrote: »

Beautiful. I think you've swapped the ECM and UKMO duration times though? Run start times look about right.

I couldn't find a runtime duration for the ECM actually, Meteociel implies that it's instantly posted at 10 minutes past the hour?

Rougies

MJohnston wrote: »

I couldn't find a runtime duration for the ECM actually, Meteociel implies that it's instantly posted at 10 minutes past the hour?

It takes about 45 mins to an hour to get to the last frame of the ECM run. I'm sure one of the the more observant posters will be able to give you a more exact run duration

pistolpetes11

Should be a written rule on this forum that chart goes in on the OP of every event thread on this forum , the more I look at it , the more brilliant it gets

km79

Another great day in east Galway
Much colder but mighty drying again

sryanbruen

Not been looking at these stratosphere charts in a few days and this has caught my eye now! I was not expecting this at all. It seems there has been a third spike in stratosphere temperatures at 30hPa, the stratosphere has been behaving amazing and very strange as of late. There was first a major SSW then a Canadian Warming which was a good bit warmer than the major SSW and now we have this spike out of nowhere which is a few degrees warmer than the major SSW! I am shocked. This definitely has to have a major impact on the zonal wind speeds - I will discuss in my Spring 2018 forecast I will hopefully forecast later - I might have to delay though due to timing concerns. Mods, can I start a Spring 2018 discussion thread for things like my forecast, talking about the latter half of March, April and May etc? Or will I just post my Spring 2018 forecast here when I've done it?



Less impressive at 10hPa but still remarkably warm!

ZX7R

Sryanbruen I think there was a spring thread started a few weeks ago

sryanbruen

ZX7R wrote: »

Sryanbruen I think there was a spring thread started a few weeks ago

Link please?

EDIT: Are you referring to this?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057827376

ZX7R

sryanbruen wrote: »

Link please?

EDIT: Are you referring to this?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057827376

Yes that's it.
I don't know how to link threads sorry

Captain Snow

Just a gentle reminder if peeps want to put all there snow photos in the one thread. Here is the Link:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057845112

_Dara_

It begins.

Dublin 15.

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Should be a written rule on this forum that chart goes in on the OP of every event thread on this forum , the more I look at it , the more brilliant it gets

The icing on the cake would be to have a list of URLs on the chart as well

sryanbruen

ZX7R wrote: »

Yes that's it.
I don't know how to link threads sorry

Seems more Summer than Spring but I guess I'll post the forecast there then.

m17

Forecast galway Tuesday night 27/02/18
Mainly clear and cold with a snow shower, untreated surfaces will be slippery lo-3℃ real feel -11℃
Wednesday day 28/02/18
Variable cloudiness with a couple of snow showers untreated surfaces will be slippery hi 1℃ real feel -6℃
Wednesday night
Mostly cloudy and cold with a couple of snow showers untreated surfaces will be slippery lo -4℃ real feel -13℃
Thursday 01/03/18
Cloudy with a couple of snow showers hi 0℃ real feel -13℃
Thursday night
Windy and chilly with periods of snow accumulations and additional 6-12cms near blizzard conditions lo -1℃ real feel -15℃
Friday 02/03/18
Windy and chilly with periods of snow 3-6cms,total 6-12cms,potential for a major snowstorms hi 3℃ real feel -7℃
Friday night
Mostly cloudy and chilly with snow showers possible lo 0℃ real feel -8℃ stay safe out there yours m17

nacho libre

Looking further ahead,
It seems our Scandi High has gone too far west too quickly, which is always the risk with a west based NAO. This has allowed the lows from the south to enroach on the cold air from the east. Still while the jet is forecasted to stay south, we won't see very mild weather for a good while yet. So colder weather always in the offing, but unlikely to see a return of the very cold weather we have at the moment. Hopefully before we lose the real cold uppers we get snowmageddon on Thursday and into Friday.

Rock Lesnar

Jesus lads i dont normally get carried away here but iv'e never seen so much snow, and whatever comes tomorrow on top of it is mind boggling, im not looking forward to the thaw, i hope it'll be very slow

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

im not looking forward to the thaw, i hope it'll be very slow

I meant this as in flooding, a rapid thaw will cause havoc here, hence why i hope its going to be slow, as for today more snow showers then i can remember and theres a blizzard out there at the minute, and the worst is still to come.

NAGDEFI

http://oldcoachroad.net/blizzardof47.html

Nice story on one of the 1947 blizzards, Boyle, Roscommon.

Get people in the mood!!

DOCARCH

New thread for Spring: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057846555

Artane2002

So, what did everyone think of Winter 2017-18? I'd give it a 9/10.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

So, what did everyone think of Winter 2017-18? I'd give it a 9/10.

8/10

February was awesome, best Winter month since December 2010 in my opinion.

January was fine, it was stormy, it was eventful, it was sunny. I like it too.

December was very meh.

Artane2002

My only complaint is the lack of longevity of the colder snaps. Happy enough with 3 days of lying snow, 5 days where the frost didn't melt and 1 day off sub zero temps.

nacho libre

9/10

The depth of cold has been extraordinary here. 3 days where the temperature has not got above -1. That has got to be a record for London, especially given the time of year. The snow total has not been bad for here either. Also we had snow on four different occasions. That's very unusual too. So it's a 9 out of 10 for me.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

In summary,

December - Rather cool, dry and sunny. Not a lot of snow.
January - Cold, wet and potentially snowy.
February - Mild but with a lot of variation. Unsettled and sunny.

Winter 2017-18 forecast review

So how did I do?

December 2017 was a fairly close to average month in terms of temperatures overall with some regional variation but generally on the milder side. This was down to the mild spells overshadowing the cold spells for the monthly averages.
Some places had their fair share of snow, especially on the 8th and 10th with heavy snow showers and via a slider low respectively. For others, it wasn't a snowy month at all.
It was a wetter than average month and the wettest since 2015 across all parts.
The odd place was sunnier than average but generally, it was a dull month. However, it was still not nearly as dull as Europe was during the month where it was the dullest month since December 1934.
I'd say on a scale of 1-10 how good I did for December is a 4.5/10. Just a bit below average I think. I underestimated the rainfall but other than that, ok. I could have done a lot better.

January 2018 was similar to December in terms of temperatures. It was close to average overall with regional variations. Northern regions were generally cold whilst the south was mild.
It was quite a wet, unsettled and stormy January. 'Twas the wettest month on record at Malin Head.
There was a good bit of snow in places during the month but very localised.
It was a sunnier than average month - I did not say for it to be sunny or dull in my initial prediction there I shared but I meant it to be a close to average sunshine month.
I think I did a 6/10 (maybe a bit too high.....?) for January. It was wet just like I predicted but I perhaps overdid the colder than average conditions.

February was a very sunny month with mixed rainfall, some places wet and others dry. Temperatures were below average. I did a 4.5/10 like December I think for February.

Overall, I did a 5/10 for the Winter. Not a terrible forecast I think, could have been better but it was a huge improvement on 2016-17 where I embarrassingly failed.

sryanbruen

The CET has had its first colder than average Winter since 2014-15, after two Winters that were very different to its counterparts of solar cycle 12 - which was a very similar solar cycle to solar cycle 24 - look at the first few Winters for instance, never mind the solar activity going on.

This chart is courtesy of my buddies James Akrill and GavsWeatherVids.

acequion

I loved February 2018.It will go down as a proper winter month for me. It started out really cold and crisp,then I spent a few days in Scotland in beautiful dry cold. And this past two weeks have been great, even here in the south west where it's usually boring mild drizzle.

For once,no complaints from me.:D

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, if they were to come off we'd be looking back and marvelling at these charts in years to come, so, as you say, it's hard not to get carried way with what's being depicted.

Well done nacho libre, you were 100% correct.

Loughc

What a way to finish off the winter season! This thread will make for a great read in 8 years time.

Hopefully we won’t have to wait that long. We had what felt like a long wait since 2010 wishing hoping and remembering the last winter event but 2018 will now go in the history books. Second event in the last decade not bad!

OneEightSeven

Any Winter that produces decent lying snow for a few days gets a 10/10.

hatrickpatrick

Artane2002 wrote: »

So, what did everyone think of Winter 2017-18? I'd give it a 9/10.

It was like one of those rugby matches which is a losing game for your side, but has enough good action in the first half that you know it has potential. Then out of nowhere at 70 minutes you get a try, and then run the length of the pitch straight from the restart, and the whole epicness just snowballs (sorry >_>) from there until you're left feeling the most excited you've been watching a match in years The dullness of the first half melts away (again... Sorry) and all you're left with is epic memories of those final ten minutes

Artane2002

Well done to everyone for their contributions this winter. I have to name George Sunsnow specifically because I barely see him mentioned for his contributions. If I remember correctly, he managed to call the lake effect snow in January, when people were discussing the lake effect snow in Erie, Pennsylvania. I'll find the quote in a bit.

Artane2002

George Sunsnow wrote: »

That’s lake effect snow for you
We’ll have our own before this winter is out

Here is the quote, posted on the 27th of December!

OldRio

Artane2002 wrote: »

So, what did everyone think of Winter 2017-18? I'd give it a 9/10.

There was a pop band in the 1980s called 'Wet Wet Wet.'
That sums up my winter. Unfortunately more to follow with this thaw.

feargale

Why was there 14cm of snow on my driveway yesterday but only 10cm today despite a total absence of rain, sleet and sun?

1. Is the snow sagging under its own weight?
2. Is it melting because of a slight increase in temperature without the sun?

MJohnston

feargale wrote: »

Why was there 14cm of snow on my driveway yesterday but only 10cm today despite a total absence of rain, sleet and sun?

1. Is the snow saggingb under its own weight?
2. Is it melting because of a slight increase in temperature without the sun?

Temperature is increasing. Also even if you can't see blue skies, there will be solar radiation making it to the ground - cloud cover has been relatively thin here in Dublin in the last couple of hours, even though the sky was 100% white clouds and no gaps.

Xenji

Take out the snow and it was a very poor winter in Castlebar, 620mm of rain in 3 months and only one week with 2 consecutive dry days, we had six days where snow fell before this week and 3 days as it stands this week which only accumulated about 8-10 cm of snow.

What I missed the most were those lovely cold and crisp cloudless evenings, I think I can only remember one night like that.

sryanbruen

Xenji wrote: »

Take out the snow and it was a very poor winter in Castlebar, 620mm of rain in 3 months and only one week with 2 consecutive dry days, we had six days where snow fell before this week and 3 days as it stands this week which only accumulated about 8-10 cm of snow.

What I missed the most were those lovely cold and crisp cloudless evenings, I think I can only remember one night like that.

That's the unfortunate problem with northwesterly dominated patterns, you get a lot of rain up there - you did also in 2014/15 didn't you?

Meanwhile, here in the east, I get an awful lot of sunshine from northwesterly based patterns.

Artane2002

Another great thing about the winter in Dublin 5 was that it had a mixture of everything, so that mild lovers/cold lovers etc. all had a bit of what they want. This winter I had:

- Snow, lying snow and ice days (haven't had lying snow during WINTER since December 2010. Maybe January 2011 but I was on holidays. I had lying snow in early March 2016.)

- Cold, frosty, sunny days. There were around 5 days where the frost/ice didn't melt. One day (maybe 12 December), everything was white with the severe frost.

- Mild, sunny days.

- Dull, boring days. Some of those dull days were (very) mild while others were cold.

- Heavy hail.

- Lightning/thunder.

- Rain.

What makes this winter stand out to me is how cold the westerlies and even the northwesterlies were. Another thing that stands out is the variety of weather but no particular type of weather dominated for an extended period of time. Hopefully it's a sign that the mild weather is relinquishing its grip for the next few winters. Overall, all the months had something that I loved. December had a lot of frost/ice. January brought snowfall (but honestly other than that, it wasn't that good.) and February brought pretty much everything. I'd rank the months as following:

1. February 2018
2. January 2018
3. December 2017 Very close call between this and January. If that slider event didn't bring rain/sleet/hail here instead of snow then I probably would've given it 2nd place.

Xenji

sryanbruen wrote: »

That's the unfortunate problem with northwesterly dominated patterns, you get a lot of rain up there - you did also in 2014/15 didn't you?

Meanwhile, here in the east, I get an awful lot of sunshine from northwesterly based patterns.

Roughly the last 5 winters precipitation, sunshine is actually another issue as well, but I do not have any LTA stats on hand.

2013/14 - 765mm
2014/15 - 710mm
2015/16 - 760mm
2016/17 - 360mm
2017/18 - 660mm

Aurora1966

Not out of the woods yet boys n girls, the trees still as bare as the bread shelves during the beast from the east.

sryanbruen

IMTs for Winter 2017/18 with anomalies from their 1981-2010 averages in brackets

December: 5.4 (-0.2)
January: 5.2 (-0.3)
February: 3.4 (-1.9)
Winter: 4.7 (-0.8)

Here's previous Winters in comparison to 2017/18 with the 1981-2010 averages at the bottom of the table:

Year|Dec|Jan|Feb|Win
2017/18|5.4|5.2|3.4|4.7
2016/17|6.7|6.1|6.4|6.4
2015/16|8.6|6.0|4.6|6.5
2014/15|5.7|4.6|4.1|4.8
2013/14|6.6|5.6|5.6|5.9
2012/13|5.8|5.7|4.3|5.3
2011/12|5.9|6.4|7.2|6.5
2010/11|-0.7|3.1|6.8|3.1
2009/10|3.1|2.1|2.7|2.6
2008/09|4.6|4.5|5.6|4.9
2007/08|6.1|6.0|5.8|6.0
2006/07|6.4|6.3|6.1|6.3
2005/06|6.0|5.9|5.7|5.9
2004/05|5.9|5.9|5.5|5.8
2003/04|5.9|5.6|5.6|5.7
2002/03|6.0|5.8|5.5|5.8
2001/02|4.9|7.3|6.5|6.2
2000/01|5.0|4.7|5.1|4.9
Mean|5.6|5.5|5.3|5.5


Calculated using Met Éireann's historical data and UKMO's Northern Ireland data.

Met Éireann says the following about the season:

The Winter of 2017-2018 was an average winter overall with seasonal unsettled weather in each month, however the season was slightly colder than normal for most due to a cold February. December saw mild, windy and wet spells with interludes of colder conditions with frost and snow at times. For the Christmas period heavy rainfall in the west and north on Christmas Eve was followed by colder conditions with wintry showers and night frost on Christmas Day. January 2018 was wetter than normal with near or slightly above average temperature as a result of a predominantly zonal westerly airflow. Several deep depressions crossed the country during January with rain and strong southwesterly winds followed by cold, blustery north-westerly winds with wintry showers, however the final week of January saw air temperatures above normal. February in contrast was a cold, sunny and dry month for many due to high pressure which dominated most of the month’s weather. However, during the second week of February a low pressure system and a succession of fronts brought the heaviest daily rainfall of the season. During the second half of the month, the jet stream was pushed southwards by the phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This caused a blocking high pressure system to form over Scandinavia which resulted in easterly winds into Ireland from the 22nd onwards. These easterlies pushed continental polar air (originating from Siberia) into the country with a significant wind chill effect. Fronts embedded in the cold easterly flow caused widespread snow on the last day of the season with significant accumulations in eastern and southern counties as well as record low maximum temperatures.

Read more about it here: http://cli.met.ie/cli/bulletin/data/2018/13/sum_132018.pdf

Not my favourite Winter but most interesting? Perhaps a contender there if you ask me.

JCX BXC

Between watching Ophelia develop and watching this beast develop it's certainly been an entertaining winter model wise.

rbelmc

both the Swedish and Danish weather sites are going for a reload of cold weather at the end of next week so maybe winter isn't over yet for Ireland