Winter 2017-18: Discussion

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Didn't really say anything specific about February: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105160043&postcount=175.

As I've been saying nacho libre, this Winter is just a teaser of what you might see in the next few years. A lot of very cold Winters tend to have teaser Winters before them like 1945-46 or 2008-09, even 2007-08 was a teaser at times with the brief easterly in January, very anticyclonic and frosty middle halves of December and February.
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I see.
So are you saying December 2010 was courtesy of a low Solar Minimum?

I am just watching the BBC news now and the amount of snow they have in Soctland is making me envious!

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

I see.
So are you saying December 2010 was courtesy of a low Solar Minimum?

I am just watching the BBC news now and the amount of snow they have in Soctland is making me envious!

Yes along with a tripole in May 2010 and very stubborn northern blocking.

George Sunsnow

Aidan Mcgivern on his latest Met office video says next weeks mild pattern on current signals may change to something colder but dryer in 10 days
Obviously the caveat being far FI

Models do have their moments though when the calculations are easier

patneve2

The PV has been weird this winter. Cold temperatures in the stratosphere but a freezing, compact and constantly rotating PV has never really appeared. Regarding the rest of the winter, I definitely wouldn't write it off. Take the ECM at 120 hrs: ok nothing inspiring at a local Ireland level but from a northern hemisphere point of view I wouldn't classify the PV as particularly strong and in fact I don't think it would take much for it to be under serious threat. If any mid to high latitude blocking does occur, hopefully we will be on the right side of it!

Billcarson

So yet another second half of Jan with no proper cold spell likely,same thing every yr going back to the 80,s.

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

So yet another second half of Jan with no proper cold spell likely,same thing every yr going back to the 80,s.

Depends really on your definition of proper cold spell because second half of January 2011 was quite cold.

Billcarson

sryanbruen wrote: »

Depends really on your definition of proper cold spell because second half of January 2011 was quite cold.

Granted the 3 rd wk of Jan 2011 was cold. Cold and frosty spell but nothing too out of the ordinary. No snow that lasts for at least a number of days on he ground type of thing with temps staying below zero much of the time. Say something like first half of Jan 2010. Second half of Jan have been devoid of anything like that since the mid 80s

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

Granted the 3 rd wk of Jan 2011 was cold. Cold and frosty spell but nothing too out of the ordinary. No snow that lasts for at least a number of days on he ground type of thing with temps staying below zero much of the time. Say something like first half of Jan 2010. Second half of Jan have been devoid of anything like that since the mid 80s

If you're considering snow in the equation, then yeah it was not at all. However, it was a very frosty spell and the month was quite significantly cold overall as a result of those frosts as well as the ones in the first week of the month after a mild and murky end to December 2010. FYI, it was including the 4th week of January 2011, not just the 3rd week.

Billcarson

Don't think it was all the 4th week though most of the 3rd week and going into some of the 4th if I remember right. Anyway i thought it was another forgetful or rather forgetful second half of Jan.

flc37ie6ojwkh8

I think it is going to be specially warm.

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

Don't think it was all the 4th week though most of the 3rd week and going into some of the 4th if I remember right. Anyway i thought it was another forgetful or rather forgetful second half of Jan.

What happened was this:

After a low pushed through on the 15th giving quite a bit of heavy rain to some places, high pressure started ridging up over us on the 17th bringing plenty of sunshine to be enjoyed. Winds were very slack so left a lot of frost to form. Soon, this high started to retrogress into the Atlantic giving off to cloudier skies towards the weekend of the 22nd/23rd. Then a front pushed down from the north on the 24th which would give away to some showery rain into the 25th making things that bit milder but certainly not warm, like 6 to 8c at most. The low descended down to the English Channel after with a high pressure to the north of the country allowing weak easterlies to form which brought in a lot of cloud and severe frost - the lowest temperature of the month was during this period as you saw in the Irish Weather Statistics thread. The high then sank southwards and low pressure formed to the northwest bringing in our normal zonal pattern for February.

Billcarson

Think we will have to wait for next winter or the winter after it for our next proper cold spell. Always thought this winter was too soon. I have high hopes for many of the next few.

Assetbacked

George Sunsnow wrote: »

True
But that is because Dublin’s best source for snow are Irish Sea streamers and they need a potent deep northeasterly or easterly
There’s been little to be honest in terms of deep source or none of those since 2010

The impression in the east one or two day wonder of a westerly or northwesterly makes is considerably lessened by what a proper sourced cold like 2010 can do
If boards lives another 10 or 15 years and there’s no repeat,most posters on this forum won’t remember what snow is
That’s unlikely though

Dublin rarely gets the exciting events the rest of the country gets. Ophelia ended up being relatively tame in the end. Snow didn't stick in Dublin 1 recently and not much ice around as well.

Harry Palmr

Looks like an increasingly mild outlook for the next 10 days or so.

Gonzo

I don't mind a mild 10-14 days as long as it doesn't end up being mild for the rest of the winter. Since the beginning of November we've only had a few days of 10C+ it seems, and these heating bills are going to be very high.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't mind a mild 10-14 days as long as it doesn't end up being mild for the rest of the winter. Since the beginning of November we've only had a few days of 10C+ it seems, and these heating bills are going to be very high.

Signs of anticyclonic gloom on the charts tonight for early February after this unsettled interval for the end of January, so they're taking baby steps in improving..... as was expected.

Oscar Bravo

Plenty of variety across the country today . 11am
Sherkin , strong westerly wind gusting 45 knots and 12 degrees
Knock , light easterly wind and temperature hovering at 0

Meteorite58

Weds , in the early hours, might be a very windy and potentially very wet across the country. Again under a strong jet. During the day possibly remaining quite windy on Atlantic coasts.

Meteorite58

A lot of rainfall in parts predicted between now and Sun evening. Breezy too from the SW and later veering more W.









Big rise in Temps.

JCX BXC

Stunningly sunny here in West Clare

Squeaksoutloud

Interesting to see our European neighbours are faring even worse than us!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/19/aint-no-sunshine-winter-darkest-europe

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

Stunningly sunny here in West Clare

Last 3 hours have been with unbroken sunshine! Relatively mild but breezy.

km79

JCX BXC wrote: »

Stunningly sunny here in West Clare

Dull and chilly in east Galway !

Meteorite58

JCX BXC wrote: »

Last 3 hours have been with unbroken sunshine! Relatively mild but breezy.

Same here in Kerry, quite a breeze on the coast but enjoyable once wrapped up well.

Got up to 10.8C and currently 8.9C and clouded over with tonight's rain not far away.



NASSA

George Sunsnow

Scenes like those will become more common next weekend if tonight’s ECM is to be believed

A warm azores high heading into Europe looks like setting up a Bartlett and Athens’s Ski season should be safe this year again as said Bartlett will on past experience not move in a hurry scurrying all the Scandinavia/Siberian artic deep cold southeast with Ireland getting none.

derekon

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Scenes like those will become more common next weekend if tonight’s ECM is to be believed

A warm azores high heading into Europe looks like setting up a Bartlett and Athens’s Ski season should be safe this year again as said Bartlett will on past experience not move in a hurry scurrying all the Scandinavia/Siberian artic deep cold southeast with Ireland getting none.

Hi George, key phrase is "if tonight's ECM is to be believed".

Don't look beyond four days, the models are all over the place at the moment. This winter has been colder than the last few and we are now 11 days off the season's coldest month, I wouldn't be writing winter off so quickly!!!! If we were in the second week of March I would say fair enough but we're only coming to the end of the third week of January!!!


D

George Sunsnow

I’m only analyzing the chart
I know it’s hokum but it could happen
All we’ve had so far are flukey marginal snow events to be REALISTIC which is probably not too much of a divergence off our normal winters on the cold side as warmer ones are too
Except with the latter you don’t have these micro regional snowfalls at all

JCX BXC

However that would provide some beautiful frosty nights which I'll take with pleasure.

However I'd rather that chart in July.

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

However that would provide some beautiful frosty nights which I'll take with pleasure.

However I'd rather that chart in July.

If you were to go by the ECM specifically, it would be mild and overcast - thus anticyclonic gloom.

You'd want the high to be centred over us or further northwards than it shows on the ECM for frosts, sunshine etc.

esposito

sryanbruen wrote: »

If you were to go by the ECM specifically, it would be mild and overcast - thus anticyclonic gloom.

You'd want the high to be centred over us or further northwards than it shows on the ECM for frosts, sunshine etc.

Yeah hopefully it will drift northwards for some frosty nights to occur at least. Really hope it dosen’t turn out to be a Bartlett high. What’s the latest on SSW?