Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Oscar Bravo

1pm

Kinsale gusting 42 knots
Shannon 38 knots
Cork 32 knots
Knock 30 knots

Oscar Bravo

Blustery South westerly winds, much milder, 13 degrees at several locations. A lot of low cloud /drizzle following on behind the front however

ninebeanrows

Gurteen got 30mm overnight I believe, can't see any station higher?

Most other 15-20mm from a quick glance.

The saturated ground hasn't helped.

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm not going to get back into this big debate again, but nobody has a problem with you stating that you don't like snow, it's the "how could anyone in their right mind enjoy this terrible weather" (and that's a very mild example, they often come with insults) that illicts the responses that you don't enjoy.

On the other side of that there is plenty of posters here who will say "how could anyone in their right mind not enjoy the "white gold"'.

Rock Lesnar

Ah lads, not again

gerrybhoy

Ahh get a room lads eh ffs??

I'm sick with all the pictures from folk back in Glasgow of all the snow they're getting,hope we get a nice wee spell in coming weeks..

pad199207

24mm overnight in naas

Rock Lesnar

Was supposed to go to portlaoise today for the meath game until i seen pictures of the football pitch this morning, plenty of rain down there it seems last night

JCX BXC

I'm in bits laughing at this: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-motorists-urged-take-extreme-11888709

The entire country has been drenched with four millimetres of rain falling at Shannon Airport, while three millimetres was recorded at Malin Head and two millimetres at Dublin Airport.

4mm God help us! The person writing the article clearly hasn't a notion about rainfall amounts.

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm in bits laughing at this: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-motorists-urged-take-extreme-11888709



4mm God help us! The person writing the article clearly hasn't a notion about rainfall amounts.

Someone mixed up their cm and mm there!

Gonzo

finally some sun here. It's warmer outside than inside the house with all the cold that built up here over the past 2 months!

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

finally some sun here. It's warmer outside than inside the house with all the cold that built up here over the past 2 months!

Over 10c warmer inside my house than outside.I think you're heading might be on the blink.

Gonzo

highdef wrote: »

Over 10c warmer inside my house than outside.I think you're heading might be on the blink.

the heating is fine, but house is from the 1970s and no insulation, so once the heat is turned off a warm room turns cold quickly. We keep 2 rooms warm as much as possible that we use, while the rest of the house is very chilly. It is more noticeable now than it has been over any winter since 2010.

nacho libre

Clonmel, you need to spend your winters in that place( i've forgotten where exactly) you were at over Christmas, then your problem is solved. You'll get all the dry and warm weather you want!

We had 15 minutes of snow this morning before it turned back to rain. Bye for snow:(

Clonmel1000

nacho libre wrote: »

Clonmel, you need to spend your winters in that place( i've forgotten where exactly) you were at over Christmas, then your problem is solved. You'll get all the dry and warm weather you want!

We had 15 minutes of snow this morning before it turned back to rain. Bye for snow:(

Or alternatively some people here could spend their winters in the North Pole 😆

JCX BXC

Danno wrote: »

Someone mixed up their cm and mm there!

Even change it to cm and it's not correct! I'd wager someone looked at the "yesterday's weather" section on ME which gives 4mm at Shannon and 3mm at Malin head! Mr.Half Arsed Reporter not having a clue what those numbers mean threw them in. No idea where the 2mm for Dublin figure came from though.

Really terrible journalism though, if only there was a way to enforce journalistic standards.

ABC101

JCX BXC wrote: »

Even change it to cm and it's not correct! I'd wager someone looked at the "yesterday's weather" section on ME which gives 4mm at Shannon and 3mm at Malin head! Mr.Half Arsed Reporter not having a clue what those numbers mean threw them in. No idea where the 2mm for Dublin figure came from though.

Really terrible journalism though, if only there was a way to enforce journalistic standards.

Irish journalism always struck me as primitive and bordering on retarded. Certainly below average intelligence for certain.

M.T. Cranium

Worth noting that there is an exceptionally strong Siberian high (in northwest Siberia) of 1069 mbs that has been there for about a week, and shows no signs of moving or deflating in the next week. Eventually the GFS has it collapsing but after some of it leaks out to the west. Lows in the -50s associated with this high pressure area.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Worth noting that there is an exceptionally strong Siberian high (in northwest Siberia) of 1069 mbs that has been there for about a week, and shows no signs of moving or deflating in the next week. Eventually the GFS has it collapsing but after some of it leaks out to the west. Lows in the -50s associated with this high pressure area.

So what are you saying exactly? Or you expecting it to have some impact on our weather towards the end of the month, or just that it will be close by on the continent. Do you agree with your friend Joe Bastardi that parts of europe will go cold in February?

nagdefy

Gonzo wrote: »

the heating is fine, but house is from the 1970s and no insulation, so once the heat is turned off a warm room turns cold quickly. We keep 2 rooms warm as much as possible that we use, while the rest of the house is very chilly. It is more noticeable now than it has been over any winter since 2010.

I found an ad in Finns Leinster Journal letting our home house in 1773!! So it's older than that. Looks bigger outside than in, has massive 6ft walls in width, but damp as hell and cold!

The ad said 'comfortable farmhouse to rent with 15 tonnes of hay and 40 tonnes of rushes'!! I couldn't stop laughing at every bit of it. Esp. the 'comfortable bit'.

When we were kids the frost would pattern on the inside of the windows. Also when the wind came from the east snow got in under the old slated roof and no messing we'd wake up with snow on our bed clothes. We were never sick until we got weatherglaze windows and central heating

sryanbruen

Another mini warming event has appeared on the GFS now for early February after the first one takes place that we've been seeing as a possibility for a few days now.





There's also this from the CFSv2 for February 5th to 12th:

M.T. Cranium

I do think there will be a few colder days but the huge buildup in that high followed by its gradual collapse can only be an inducement for zonal flow into western Russia, you would think. However, if it deflates, at least it removes this problem we've been seeing of a mean trough forced to park over the eastern Atlantic a bit too far west for real cold, it can deliver some cold but not persistent. Oh, and Joe Bastardi is not really a friend, I met him once (cause and effect? possibly ) in 1980. Those were the days.

Irishsneachta

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I do think there will be a few colder days but the huge buildup in that high followed by its gradual collapse can only be an inducement for zonal flow into western Russia, you would think. However, if it deflates, at least it removes this problem we've been seeing of a mean trough forced to park over the eastern Atlantic a bit too far west for real cold, it can deliver some cold but not persistent. Oh, and Joe Bastardi is not really a friend, I met him once (cause and effect? possibly ) in 1980. Those were the days.

"A few colder days but" So barring the occasional toppler you don't see anything of significance for the rest of the winter? Are you completely writing it off?

M.T. Cranium

No, actually I think there's a chance but I am not really pumped about it yet, would prefer to see a less massive Siberian high a bit further south with retrograde tendencies than this monster block, but it could do some good things, I really don't have much confidence in model forecasts beyond about 5-7 days at this point because this could evolve in at least three different ways. It could stay fairly static and be about like the past two weeks for another month. It could all flatten out into a zonal borefest, or it could do a bit of a westward shift and allow a resonant mid-Atlantic high to link to polar high pressure and place western Europe in a colder northerly pattern. The outcome may be a blend of all of these. The problem with blocking is that your outcomes include the opposite outcome of persistent southerly flow and very mild weather.

Somehow I think maybe March will deliver as in 2013, it may take that long to get the zonal machine turned off long enough.

Pangea

He mentions snow from Day 7 onwards

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155521126184209/

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

He mentions snow from Day 7 onwards

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155521126184209/

Anyone wanting a pattern change heralding snow from the east or north east won't be too excited by that forecast, but if you live in areas in the north and north west that have seen a lot of snow already you'll be happy with it.
It's interesting the talk of a cold March earlier, because some teleconnection experts are suggesting a possible ssw event in mid February, with the lag effect for that to influence what goes on in the troposphere(assuming it happens at all) it would be around late February into March that we would see its effect on our weather. Also i have read that in traditional la nina winters cold and snowy weather from the north east is unlikely in February.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z GFS has a nice blocking high and easterly flow after 6th of February, take a look because this is the only place you may actually see it.

km79

Remember that dry day we had last year?
That was nice

Neddyusa

km79 wrote: »

Remember that dry day we had last year?
That was nice

All this talk about imaginary easterlies while the main weather story of the moment is the imminent serious flooding threat in the West and shannon basin - if someone above doesn't turn off the tap and quick!!

I know you jest about the dry day but it seems that we haven't had three dry days in a row since last July!

ABC101

Neddyusa wrote: »

All this talk about imaginary easterlies while the main weather story of the moment is the imminent serious flooding threat in the West and shannon basin - if someone above doesn't turn off the tap and quick!!

I know you jest about the dry day but it seems that we haven't had three dry days in a row since last July!

Maybe there will be less opposition now to using some of the Shannon water to supply Dublin and the East coast?