Winter 2017-18: Discussion

squarecircles

sryanbruen wrote: »

As soon as I decide to take a break from model watching..... this happened on the GFS 00z this morning :rolleyes:.

Don't worry,it vanished as quickly as it appeared,on the 06z.

Oscar Bravo

Very active cold front passing down from the north west. Heavy rain and squally winds here in Castlebar

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Very active cold front passing down from the north west. Heavy rain and squally winds here in Castlebar

Sudden and unexpected rain storm here about half hour ago. Thought it was hail against the window at first.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Impressive cold air well into the Atlantic from a northwesterly!
It would be quite something if that -12 air made it all the way here from a north westerly. Has it ever happened before? I know in 2010 we had but that was from a proper northerly feed with modification to contend with.

This is the closest I know of, but for sure colder has happened before sometime:

George Sunsnow

Raining lightly here near Arklow now 1.3 mm/hr

Oscar Bravo

Windy,in fact very windy in places

11pm
Malin head gusting 52 knots
Mace head 40 knots
Finner 39 knots
Newport 39 knots
Belmullet 37 knots

squarecircles

Very strong winds whipped up all of a sudden here in West Mayo.

Yellow Warning on met.ie

sryanbruen

Ok, this is getting a bit ridiculous now :pac:. The PV is getting obliterated here on the GFS 06z with some Canadian warming even taking place now.

Lucreto

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ok, this is getting a bit ridiculous now :pac:. The PV is getting obliterated here on the GFS 06z with some Canadian warming even taking place now.

Dry January ended early for GFS it seems :pac:

giveitholly

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ok, this is getting a bit ridiculous now :pac:. The PV is getting obliterated here on the GFS 06z with some Canadian warming even taking place now.

What could this mean for our weather here in ireland

sryanbruen

giveitholly wrote: »

What could this mean for our weather here in ireland

Basically, with the Polar Vortex obliterated, it means blocking will form over the Arctic Circle and allow cold to descend into the mid-latitudes. 2/3 SSW events normally work in our favour believe it or not for cold.

Previously on the model runs, it was only showing warming for northern Europe which looked bad for us cold lovers going by February 1982 as a historical example but now that the PV is literally obliterated and Canadian Warming is going to take place - at least according to today's model runs (it could all look very different in the next runs or tomorrow), it's looking excellent for cold right now. The zonal winds are expected to take an absolute plunge into February going well below 0 m/s - see the updated chart in the tweet. I am kind of skeptical regarding the Canadian warming because CW events usually take place in November or December and is very abnormal to be happening in February.

https://twitter.com/Forecas55175638/status/958705994003025921/photo/1

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/958707018549813249/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dgavsweathervids1%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.gavsweathervids.com%252Fcomments-2.php%26t_d%3DSecond%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26t_t%3DSecond%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D55961c11ad1f0d062ae1f25f74875183

The stratosphere temperatures at 10hPa have certainly risen in the past day or two:



If it does come off, it will take minimum two weeks to take effect on our weather. It could happen in two months after the initial event - you can never predict when effects from a SSW will happen to us, but if I were to take a guess, it would be around mid to late March that we would feel the effects of this SSW. The earliest they can happen is late February. If we do get severe cold before this SSW however - as the models are hinting at for next week and the week after then a SSW is not good for cold in this case.

Oscar Bravo

Stormy wet evening here in Castlebar. Mace head currently gusting 57 knots and Newport 51 knots.

sunbeam

I've no idea what the gusts are here in Achill but I can barely open the front door.

pauldry

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Stormy wet evening here in Castlebar. Mace head currently gusting 57 knots and Newport 51 knots.

N sligo too. A feature on satellite has come down over Northwest with strong winds n hail embedded with thunderstorms

Oscar Bravo

6pm
Mace head gusting 54 knots
Newport 54 knots
Belmullet 51 knots

sryanbruen

GFS 12z has followed on from the GFS 06z with a stratospheric warming event during the second week of February. However, it has been downgraded for the 13th February and shows what it showed earlier for that date on the 16th February instead - which is the very end of the run. Not to mention, it seems a bit of a downgrade on the 16th February too because there isn't as severe warming - nor as much Canadian warming going on.

pauldry

After 17 really windy days and 12 very wet ones thank God January is now over in the Northwest.

Of the other 19 days at least 13 of them had some precipitation and there was about 4 to 5 dry days.

Also Hail occurred on at least 6 days in Sligo

Xenji

Castlebar had 288.4mm of rain, making it the wettest January in 15 years, also the wettest month since December 2015, hoping for some nice crisp cold but dry days this month.

Loughc

Xenji wrote: »

Castlebar had 288.4mm of rain, making it the wettest January in 15 years, also the wettest month since December 2015, hoping for some nice cold but dry days this month.

Me too, I'm sick of the wet grey mornings. It was nice seeing a bit of sky on the way to work this morning.

pad199207

Xenji wrote: »

Castlebar had 288.4mm of rain, making it the wettest January in 15 years, also the wettest month since December 2015, hoping for some nice crisp cold but dry days this month.

Yikes that is a very high total indeed.

snowstorm445

Lovely snow capped peaks on the Galtee Mts this morning.

George Sunsnow

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Lovely snow capped peaks on the Galtee Mts this morning.

Ditto on lugnaquilla and Croghan Moira in Wicklow

gabeeg

Any sign of cold stuff on the ARPEGE?

MJohnston

gabeeg wrote: »

Any sign of cold stuff on the ARPEGE?

It's only rolled out to +34 so far. I guess that means another hour before the right frames become available.

sryanbruen

And it continues!





https://twitter.com/judah47/status/959122832365105153

gabeeg

Everyone seems a bit pensive.

123 people online. No-one daring to breathe never mind speak.

Someone call it.

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

Everyone seems a bit pensive.

123 people online. No-one daring to breathe never mind speak.

Someone call it.

I'm just trying to keep a low profile here, as I might get myself into some trouble .

km79

gabeeg wrote: »

Everyone seems a bit pensive.

123 people online. No-one daring to breathe never mind speak.

Someone call it.

Wet and cold
Like the last 2 months

squarecircles

km79 wrote: »

Wet and cold
Like the last 2 months

I'm waiting for the Kermit De frog thread.

I'm also anticipating the whole thing to go tits up.

squarecircles

gabeeg wrote: »

Everyone seems a bit pensive.

123 people online. No-one daring to breathe never mind speak.

Someone call it.

Yeah it's like a quiet rural pub here
Meanwhile over on netweather it's
Like a techno club with people snorting cocaine in the jack's.

I think I prefer to stay in the pub a bit longer...