Winter 2017-18: Discussion

giveitholly

Are the charts showing much precipitation or will it just be cold and dry

Snowbiee21

giveitholly wrote: »

Are the charts showing much precipitation or will it just be cold and dry

This is the ecm, take it with a pinch of salt

gabeeg

squarecircles wrote: »

Yeah it's like a quiet rural pub here
Meanwhile over on netweather it's
Like a techno club with people snorting cocaine in the jack's.

I think I prefer to stay in the pub a bit longer...

There's surely a happy medium. There certainly is for your analogy.

km79

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

This is the ecm, take it with a pinch of salt

Push it further east and I'll be delighted
No more precipitation needed in the west
Cold and dry please

giveitholly

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

This is the ecm, take it with a pinch of salt

Thanks

gabeeg

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

This is the ecm, take it with a pinch of salt

ARPEGE shows a bit too. GFS is the usual 5 day blizzard, but it's big fat liar as we know.

gabeeg

Courtesy of MJohnston. Obviously.

MJohnston wrote: »

ARPEGE:

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Indeed, -12c 850 temps over southern England by +144hrs, any correction West of this could see them over Ireland come the day itself... We are on the cusp of a very wintry spell of weather.

Models today have backed everything west, I doubt Tuesday's front will make it to the UK at all.

-12 850’s over Ireland are unlikely
However if England and Wales gets strong deep snowcover,their ice days surface air will advect westward in the modeled scenarios regardless of what happens on high
You’d be virtually guaranteed ripe conditions for snow provided you have the precip and that’s either frontal or showery
That’s a while off yet though
This day week anyway for advection affects if current modeling continues
However if sea temps are 10 or 11c (I haven’t checked) with -9 air aloft at 5000ft and air pressure in or about 1022
You can expect thunder snow in the east

So yeah , it’s only Thursday but She’s lifting her skirt a bit

5500

km79 wrote: »

Wet and cold
Like the last 2 months

Fraxinus.... is that you :pac:

Kermit.de.frog

Monday looking nippy. UKMO is the most promising in terms of bringing colder air west sooner. Well poised for some snow Monday night for many as an Atlantic front tries to make inroads. Agree with that will probably die out over western Britain at this stage.




As temperatures remain very low next week I wouldn't be surprised to see any snowfall on Monday hang around on pavements for a few days...

Nettle Soup

Is there still snow on the mountains anyone? Carrauntoohill? Galtymore?Mweelrea? Lug?

downwiththatsor

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Is there still snow on the mountains anyone? Carrauntoohill? Galtymore?Mweelrea? Lug?

Carrauntoohill had snow today on top 200m or so

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

-12 850’s over Ireland are unlikely
However if England and Wales gets strong deep snowcover,their ice days surface air will advect westward in the modeled scenarios regardless of what happens on high

During the famous cold spell in 1987 exceptionally cold upper air managed to make its way here. The South East of England had -20 upper air. As you say it doesn't matter if we don't get -12 air here, with the CAA from a frozen England you won't need anything close to it get snow. Unless this all goes pear shaped like the easterly that never was in December 2012. The models suddenly flipped on that one, two or three days out. Surely the same thing can't happen again:eek:

M.T. Cranium

So far it looks like a dry cold pattern away from Ulster which might get 3-6 cms of snow during each interval. Would be encouraging to see more easterly flow involved at the right times if you want to see significant snow in Leinster.

Main items on display would be nights close to -10 C and some chance of ice days where max fails to reach 0.0 C at least in colder locations inland north-central.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So far it looks like a dry cold pattern away from Ulster which might get 3-6 cms of snow during each interval. Would be encouraging to see more easterly flow involved at the right times if you want to see significant snow in Leinster.

Main items on display would be nights close to -10 C and some chance of ice days where max fails to reach 0.0 C at least in colder locations inland north-central.

Which I'd be more than enough up to and fine with! Sick and tired of the rain or storms, January was a bit much storms wise for me - especially Georgina, don't get me started on her. Bring it on.

squarecircles

The gfs snow charts have slowly changed bit by bit since that incredible 18z run last night,less and less pink and lighter precipitation,I knew it were too good to be true.

MT mentions it probably will be cold but Dry.

UK still looks like it will get ploughed with snow at some stage from it.

Another potential flop in the making regarding epic snowfall.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

And it continues!





https://twitter.com/judah47/status/959122832365105153

Michael Ventrice:
"Models are locking onto what is a called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, which splits the Stratospheric Polar Vortex into sister vortices. We haven't seen one of these events in years during the month of February. Yesterday's blog for clients http://www.wsienergycast.com/TraderBlog/?p=60279 …"

So one of the vortices looks to be over northern europe. If it does happen,we could be looking at cold and potentially snowy weather beyond this upcoming spell - possibly a cold start to March too.
Unless of course we are locked in a cold pattern already and the SSW ends up flipping us back to a milder pattern.

fraxinus1

5500 wrote: »

Fraxinus.... is that you :pac:

Nope not me. I’m very much myself

Kermit.de.frog

Chilly in the northeast Canadian provinces this week...

gabeeg

I could take it

gabeeg

squarecircles wrote: »

Yeah it's like a quiet rural pub here
Meanwhile over on netweather it's
Like a techno club with people snorting cocaine in the jack's.

I think I prefer to stay in the pub a bit longer...

In fairness to this guy, they are that bit closer to the deep cold and it's a hell of a ramp

snowking wrote:

Well it's probably fair to say that I've been rather quiet on these forums for the last few years really, especially since 2013.

After 15 years of internet weather watching, and more importantly, having witnessed the incredible run of winters we had from 2009-2013 (vs the more Ian Brown style winter in the preceding 10 years), it really takes something now to get me to show more than a fleeting interest in what's on offer.

Now it's safe to say, regardless of geographical bias (bearing in mind I now work in Central London and live on the SE'ern edges of our ever-warmer capital, so I am pretty neutral when I say this) this winter has, thus far, been the most productive for watchers of a colder persuasion since March 2013, with many parts of the country seeing at least a covering and some lucky folks through Central England seeing 3 pretty decent, if temporary, snow events (of course those further North and more vertical than the rest of us have seen far in excess of this, but those lucky b******s get to see this most years). But what we stand on the cusp of, what is being modelled within a pretty reliable timeframe, is reminiscent of those days back at the beginning of this decade where the sun went to sleep and cold chaos ensued.

It is far to say that, beyond just the pure pornographic synoptics, the likes of which we had not seen for many years previous, 2010 ruined the laws of model watching in so many ways. Forecast models are not supposed to pick out the correct pattern at +360 and run with them pretty much right through to +0. They're supposed to tease us with big greeny highs, fallible dreams of the biggest snowstorms of the last 100 years (circa December 2012) and then leave us distraught, crying in the corner of the shower, attacking the 'mildies' on here with our not-quite-waterproof smartphones (what a long way we have come...) at even the merest hint of an 'I told you so'. And I genuinely think the 2010 episode of near flawless modelling has left a lot of people on here far too expectant of the capabilities of predicting the friggin future with a lot of electronic circuitry and fans.

This is why, more so than at any time in the past 5 or so years, this current phase of modelling really has my interest.

We are on the cusp of something which, pre the 2009-2013 phase, would have had me online from 8am-10pm (which, if memory serves, is when the old BBC slowwatch forums used to shut for the night) in a far too nerdy way (nobody ever understands our snow obsession right?).

Some members on here can be accused of being just that little bit too optimistic when it comes to cold and snow chances, but those same people are very much correct in these sort of short-range cold shock scenarios - whilst the models might not yet show anything significant snowfall wise, they never do until much closer to the time. In fact, if we think of events such as Jan 2003, Jan 2004, Feb 2005, Feb 2009, Jan 2010 and even in to Feb 2012, Jan & March 2013, all of them had modelling which at face value painted a cold and dry scenario....which continued until a few days before unexpected features popped up in an increasingly unstable flow given a significantly lower than usual upper temperature profile. When you combine that with the anomalously warm seas surrounding the UK right now, there is an inevitability about unexpected short range snow events.

Beyond just next week, we also have a pretty consistently modelled significant warming into the stratosphere, which should yield an interesting second half of February, combined (or perhaps even coupled?) with one of the most significant MJO episodes we have seen to leave us on the cusp of a pretty memorable February overall...now when have we seen that before, with a declining solar profile...memories of 2009.

Enjoy the next few weeks everyone, I will certainly be more active on here as we stand on the edge of what, from 15 years of experience, feels like a pretty significant period of wintry weather for our humble little island..

patneve2

Am liking ECM's trend of sandwiching lows between the cold to the W and from the E without pulling in that much mild air.

GFS is less promising and would only possibly bring a short period of back edge snow. All depends on how strong the mild sector is between the two airmasses. Still too much uncertainty but am optimistic for the rest of the winter, esp second half of February.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Michael Ventrice:
"Models are locking onto what is a called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, which splits the Stratospheric Polar Vortex into sister vortices. We haven't seen one of these events in years during the month of February. Yesterday's blog for clients http://www.wsienergycast.com/TraderBlog/?p=60279 …"

So one of the vortices looks to be over northern europe. If it does happen,we could be looking at cold and potentially snowy weather beyond this upcoming spell - possibly a cold start to March too.
Unless of course we are locked in a cold pattern already and the SSW ends up flipping us back to a milder pattern.

Yep, the last time February had a SSW event was 2009. The last time we even had a SSW in general was March 2016 and the last time we had a SSW during the meteorological Winter season was January 2013 so we're overdue it. Here's the previous two SSW events to compare with this one.

January 2013




March 2016

George Sunsnow

I thought at the time the UK met were investigating if a SSW was responsible for December 2010?
It’s an early science

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I thought at the time the UK met were investigating if a SSW was responsible for December 2010?
It’s an early science

No? There was no sudden stratospheric warming in 2010.

I thought December 2010 was down to the Icelandic volcano.

pistolpetes11

I was under the impression 2010 was SSW event also , Redsunset used to brilliant threads on them each year

Rebelbrowser

sryanbruen wrote: »

No? There was no sudden stratospheric warming in 2010.

I thought December 2010 was down to the Icelandic volcano.

Dont think thats correct viz the volcano.

sryanbruen

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Dont think thats correct viz the volcano.

Well volcanic eruptions have been followed by severe cold a lot of times, especially the severest ones.

I began a research project back in October on seeing if there’s any influence of volcanic eruptions on the Irish climate seeing their effects on the global climate: https://www.boards.ie/b/thread/2057798296

I use my IMT calculations to determine if they do or not. I’ve calculated only back to the 1960s so I’ve quite a bit to go before I start making assessments on the project and answering my question.

sryanbruen

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I was under the impression 2010 was SSW event also , Redsunset used to brilliant threads on them each year

I’ve posted charts back in November showing there was no SSW in 2010. I’ll go over it again later tonight if you’d like me to.

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

I’ve posted charts back in November showing there was no SSW in 2010. I’ll go over it again later tonight if you’d like me to.

Was there not some Canadian warming in November? I might be wrong on that.